1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term arrival of logs at ports remains low, providing some support to the supply side. The off - season of shipments from New Zealand and rising overseas quotes are expected to lead to a gradual decrease in arrivals. - Log demand is in the off - season, with weak port out - bound shipments. Affected by weather and low real - estate start - up rates, demand is expected to remain weak, but the decline space is limited. - Short - term arrival reduction may lead to continuous inventory reduction, but the overall inventory reduction amplitude may be limited due to weak downstream demand. - Spot prices are relatively stable, with a slight decline in the off - season. Future arrival reduction may provide some support. The 09 contract is expected to remain volatile. [7][9][11][17] 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents Part 1: Log Overview Supply Side - Overseas: In the week of 2025/7/11, the number of arriving ships was 10, a decrease of 3 compared to the previous week; the arrival volume was 34.35 million cubic meters, a decrease of 9.95 million cubic meters. The import volume of coniferous logs was 219.07 million cubic meters, a slight increase of 0.61 million cubic meters. The import volume of radiata pine was 169.00 million cubic meters, an increase of 3.55 million cubic meters. The import volume of spruce - fir was 12.00 million cubic meters, a decrease of 0.31 million cubic meters, and the import volume of other coniferous logs was 38.07 million cubic meters, a decrease of 2.63 million cubic meters. - From the perspective of New Zealand's shipping seasonality, June and July are the off - seasons. Rising overseas quotes have curbed the import willingness of domestic traders, and arrivals are expected to decrease gradually. [7] Demand and Inventory Side - Demand: The weekly national shipment volume was 41.16 million cubic meters, a decrease of 5.7 million cubic meters compared to the previous week. The demand in various regions showed a downward trend. The apparent demand was 35.60 million cubic meters, a decrease of 22.5 million cubic meters. - Inventory: The inventory in Shandong and Jiangsu showed different trends. The total inventory was 376.25 million cubic meters, a decrease of 1.3 million cubic meters. Short - term arrival reduction may lead to inventory reduction, but the amplitude may be limited due to weak demand. [9] Price and Spread - Price: The overseas quote of radiata pine increased slightly, while the spot price decreased slightly but remained relatively stable. The price of wood squares was stable, and the futures price showed a downward trend. - Spread: The spot spread was relatively stable, and the futures spread and basis also showed a stable trend. The basis can be considered at the level of 5.9m medium - grade A radiata pine, with a reference size difference of 8%, equivalent to about 780 - 790 yuan per cubic meter on the futures market. [11][13] Strategy Recommendation - The spot market is stable, arrivals are decreasing, and inventory is fluctuating. The futures market is expected to remain volatile. Pay attention to downstream start - up and port inventory. [17] Part 2: Log Balance Sheet The report provides a weekly log balance sheet from 2025 - 01 - 03 to 2025 - 07 - 11, including arrival numbers, arrival weights, daily average shipment volumes, apparent demand, and inventory data by region and tree species, and calculates the supply - demand difference [19]. Part 3: Log Supply - Demand Analysis Supply Side - New Zealand Log Shipment Volume: The report shows the expected departure volume of ships and the expected port shipment volume of New Zealand logs from 2023 to 2025 [26]. - Log Import: The import volume of coniferous logs from 2022 to 2025 is presented, and the import volume by tree species is also analyzed [29]. Demand Side - Log Daily Average Shipment Volume: The daily average out - bound volume of ports in China, Jiangsu, and Shandong from 2022 to 2025 is shown [36][37]. - Real Estate: The cumulative year - on - year data of real estate development investment completion and new construction area, as well as the monthly data of real estate development investment completion, housing construction area, and new construction area from 2021 to 2025 are presented [40][41][42]. Downstream Analysis - Wood Square Analysis - Price: The price trends of radiata pine and spruce wood squares of different specifications in Shandong from 2022 to 2025 are shown [46][47][48][49]. - Wood Square Analysis - Profit: The profit trends of radiata pine and spruce wood squares of different specifications in Shandong from 2024 to 2025 are shown [52][53][54][55]. - Downstream Substitute - Aluminum Alloy Analysis: The development indicators of the aluminum alloy formwork industry from 2020 to 2025 are presented [57]. Inventory Side The report analyzes the inventory by tree species and region, but specific data analysis is not detailed in the summary part [62][68]. Part 4: Cost and Profit The report shows the import cost and profit trends of radiata pine and spruce from 2022 to 2025. The import cost of radiata pine and spruce increased, and the import profit decreased [75][76][77][78]. Part 5: Log Price and Spread Analysis Log Overseas Quote The overseas quote trends of radiata pine and spruce from 2022 to 2025 are presented [82][83]. Seasonality of Radiata Pine and Spruce Prices The price trends of radiata pine and spruce of different specifications from 2024 to 2025 are shown [85]. Seasonality of Radiata Pine and Spruce Spreads The spread trends of radiata pine of different specifications from 2024 to 2025 are presented [88][89][90][91]. Radiata Pine and LG Basis The basis trends of radiata pine of different specifications and LG futures contracts from 2024 to 2025 are shown [94][95][96][97]. LG Main Contract Seasonal Chart and Inter - Month Spread The price trends of the main continuous contract and LG09 contract from 2024 to 2025 are presented [100][101].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Macro - financial**: Consider gradually taking profits or adopting covered strategies for stock index futures; pay attention to the tax - period capital situation, and the bond market may rebound [11][12]. - **Black metals**: The black market is expected to continue to fluctuate strongly in the short term; do not chase long on the double - silicon futures, and focus on shorting at high levels in the medium term; soda ash may rise in the short term, and avoid short - selling; glass can be considered to go long at low levels [14][17][18]. - **Non - ferrous metals and new materials**: For aluminum and alumina, it is recommended to short at high levels; lithium carbonate is expected to fluctuate in the short term; industrial silicon may maintain a strong shock, and polysilicon is expected to maintain a strong trend in the short term [20][21][22]. - **Agricultural products**: For cotton, short at high levels; for sugar, it may fall in the short term; for eggs, short on rebounds; for corn, remain on the sidelines; for live pigs, short the near - month contracts [24][26][28][29][30]. - **Energy and chemicals**: Crude oil is likely to enter a supply - surplus pattern and may fluctuate; fuel oil and asphalt follow the trend of oil prices; plastics can be considered to hold put options or short slightly; rubber can be short - term long on pullbacks; methanol is expected to fluctuate weakly; caustic soda should maintain a short - selling mindset; for the polyester industry chain, short at high levels or long the bottle chip processing fee; LPG futures are easy to fall and difficult to rise [31][33][35][38][39][41][42]. - **Others**: For pulp, observe the inventory reduction and spot trading; for logs, the 09 contract is expected to fluctuate; for urea, consider buying at low levels; for synthetic rubber, be cautious when chasing high [44][45][46]. 3. Summaries according to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro News - China's social financing scale increased by 22.83 trillion yuan in H1 2025, and RMB loans increased by 12.92 trillion yuan. The central bank will continue to implement a moderately loose monetary policy [7]. - On July 15, the central bank will conduct a 1.4 trillion - yuan outright reverse - repurchase operation [7]. - In H1 2025, China's total value of goods trade imports and exports reached 21.79 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 2.9%. In June, exports of rare earths were 7,742.2 tons, and cumulative exports from January to June were 32,569.2 tons, a year - on - year increase of 11.9% [7]. - Over 80% of surveyed economists believe that the Q2 economic growth rate will not be lower than 5%, and they expect consumption to continue to stabilize in H2, while the property market sales may decline [8]. - Trump urges Russia to reach a cease - fire agreement, otherwise a 100% secondary tariff will be imposed. He also plans to impose new tariffs on more than 20 countries from August 1 and a 50% tariff on all imported copper [8][9]. - OPEC and its allies are increasing oil production, and the demand in Q3 is expected to be "very strong" [9]. 3.2 Macro - financial 3.2.1 Stock Index Futures The Shanghai Composite Index has slowed its rise after breaking through 3,500 points. Given the release of macro data and the disclosure of semi - annual reports, there may be a need to take profits on short - term long positions [11]. 3.2.2 Treasury Bond Futures The central bank's reverse - repurchase operations maintain net investment, and the bond market may rebound due to the correction of capital and regulatory pricing [12]. 3.3 Black Metals 3.3.1 Steel and Iron Ore The black market is on a shock - rebound trend due to positive policy expectations. In the short - to - medium term, policies are expected to be more favorable, but overall, stability is the main focus. Downstream steel demand is seasonally weakening, while supply is expected to remain high. The price of raw materials may boost market sentiment [14]. 3.3.2 Coking Coal and Coke In the short term, the double - coke market may continue to rebound, but in the medium term, it may remain weak due to crude steel production cuts and macro - policies [15]. 3.3.3 Ferroalloys Do not chase long on the double - silicon futures, and focus on shorting at high levels in the medium term, as the fundamentals are expected to weaken [17]. 3.3.4 Soda Ash and Glass Soda ash may rise in the short term, and avoid short - selling; glass can be considered to go long at low levels, and pay attention to the market situation in Hubei [18]. 3.4 Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials 3.4.1 Aluminum and Alumina For aluminum, short at high levels due to increased inventory and weak consumption; for alumina, short at high levels as supply is expected to be abundant [20]. 3.4.2 Lithium Carbonate In the short term, it is expected to fluctuate, and the price may fall after a rapid increase, but the downside is limited [21]. 3.4.3 Industrial Silicon It is expected to maintain a strong shock, but there is no continuous upward driving force [22]. 3.4.4 Polysilicon It is expected to maintain a strong trend in the short term, but pay attention to the implementation of policies and the generation of warehouse receipts [23]. 3.5 Agricultural Products 3.5.1 Cotton The cotton price may rebound in the short term, but there are long - term concerns about demand. Short at high levels [24]. 3.5.2 Sugar The domestic sugar price may fall in the short term due to expected increased supply and lower import costs [26]. 3.5.3 Eggs The egg price may enter a seasonal rising period, but the increase during the Mid - Autumn Festival may be limited. Short on rebounds [28]. 3.5.4 Corn Maintain a wait - and - see attitude as the price is oscillating. There is a chance of valuation repair after the downturn [29]. 3.5.5 Live Pigs Short the near - month contracts, as the supply is expected to increase and the demand is weak [30]. 3.6 Energy and Chemicals 3.6.1 Crude Oil It is likely to enter a supply - surplus pattern and may fluctuate due to uncertain demand during the peak season [31]. 3.6.2 Fuel Oil The price follows the trend of oil prices, and the current focus is on tariffs and short - term supply - demand fundamentals [33]. 3.6.3 Plastics Short - term sentiment may support prices, but the supply - demand situation is weak. Consider holding put options or a slightly short position [33]. 3.6.4 Rubber It may be slightly strong in the short term due to improved market sentiment. Short - term long on pullbacks [35]. 3.6.5 Methanol It is expected to fluctuate weakly. Consider short - selling after a rebound or holding put options [38]. 3.6.6 Caustic Soda Maintain a short - selling mindset as the 09 contract may face pressure [39]. 3.6.7 Asphalt It follows the trend of oil prices and is stronger than oil. The current focus is on tariffs and short - term supply - demand fundamentals [40]. 3.6.8 Polyester Industry Chain Consider shorting at high levels or long the bottle chip processing fee, as the industry's supply - demand situation is not favorable [41]. 3.6.9 Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG) LPG futures are easy to fall and difficult to rise due to abundant supply and weak demand [42]. 3.7 Others 3.7.1 Pulp Observe whether port inventory reduction continues and spot trading improves. The price is expected to have limited upward and downward space [44]. 3.7.2 Logs The 09 contract is expected to fluctuate, and pay attention to downstream start - up and port inventory [44]. 3.7.3 Urea Consider buying at low levels. Although there may be a callback, do not be overly aggressive in shorting [44]. 3.7.4 Synthetic Rubber It may be slightly strong in the short term but weak in the long term. Be cautious when chasing high [46].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings The provided content does not mention the industry investment ratings. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Macro - Financial**: For stock index futures, consider gradual profit - taking or covered strategies; for treasury bond futures, consider hedging and reducing duration. The market may have a demand for profit - taking due to potential short - term positive news realization. The focus in the bond market is whether the downward shift of the capital center can persist [7][8]. - **Black Metals**: The black market may continue to oscillate strongly in the short term. Recommendations are to wait and see or engage in spot - futures positive arbitrage when prices are high. Coal and coke may rebound in the short term due to policy expectations but remain weak in the medium term. For ferroalloys, it is advisable to hold short positions and add more short positions on rebounds [10][11][12]. - **Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials**: For aluminum and alumina, it is recommended to short at high prices. Zinc prices are expected to oscillate and decline. Industrial silicon is expected to turn to oscillatory operation, and polysilicon is expected to maintain a relatively strong operation with continued attention to follow - up measures and warehouse receipt generation [16][19]. - **Agricultural Products**: For cotton, consider short - selling at high prices; for sugar, the short - term trend is oscillatory and strong; for eggs, maintain a strategy of short - selling on rebounds; for apples, use a light - position positive arbitrage strategy; for corn, wait and see; for dates, lightly short - sell; for live pigs, short the near - term contracts with light positions [21][23][26][27]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: Crude oil is expected to be in a supply - exceeding - demand pattern in the long run, oscillating in the short term. Fuel oil and asphalt prices follow crude oil. Plastics and methanol are expected to oscillate weakly. For caustic soda, maintain a short - selling mindset. For the polyester industry chain, consider short - selling at high prices. LPG prices are likely to decline, and for pulp, observe port destocking and spot trading improvement. For logs, the 09 contract is expected to oscillate. For urea, maintain a long - buying mindset [33][36][37][40][41][43][44]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Macro - Financial - **Stock Index Futures**: The Shanghai Composite Index has broken through 3500 points. The market is discussing a high - level meeting on urban renewal. The Shenzhen Stock Exchange has revised the GEM Composite Index compilation plan. There may be a demand for profit - taking due to short - term positive news realization [7]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The central bank's reverse repurchase has turned to net investment. The focus in the bond market is whether the downward shift of the capital center can persist. Consider hedging and reducing duration [8]. Black Metals - **Steel and Iron Ore**: Macro - policy expectations have improved in the short and medium term, but large - scale stimulus policies are likely to come later. Downstream steel demand has seasonal and marginal weakening. Supply is expected to remain high, and the valuation of the futures market is expected to rise. The market may oscillate strongly in the short term [10]. - **Coal and Coke**: They are rebounding in the short term due to policy expectations. In the medium term, they are weak due to crude steel production cuts and macro - policies. The supply of coking coal is relatively loose, and the supply of coke follows [11]. - **Ferroalloys**: The market is oscillating at a relatively high level with increased volatility. The fundamentals are weakening. It is recommended to hold short positions and add more short positions on rebounds [12]. - **Soda Ash and Glass**: Soda ash is rising in the short term following market sentiment, and it is advisable to avoid short - selling for now. Glass is recommended to be bought at low prices. Soda ash has supply - surplus and high - inventory problems, while glass has improved inventory removal [13][14]. Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials - **Aluminum and Alumina**: Aluminum is affected by international negotiations and consumption weakness, with an increasing inventory accumulation expectation. Alumina has a relatively loose supply. Both are recommended to be short - sold at high prices [16]. - **Zinc**: Social inventories are increasing, and the production of smelters is accelerating. Zinc prices are expected to oscillate and decline [16]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: It is in a short - term tight - balance state but is expected to be in surplus in the long term, with limited upward driving force [18]. - **Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon**: Industrial silicon is expected to turn to oscillatory operation, and polysilicon is expected to maintain a relatively strong operation. Attention should be paid to follow - up measures and warehouse receipt generation [19][20]. Agricultural Products - **Cotton**: It is oscillating and rebounding in the short term but is under long - term demand pressure. Consider short - selling at high prices [21]. - **Sugar**: It is oscillating and strong in the short term. There is an expected increase in supply, which may suppress prices [23][24]. - **Eggs**: They are in a seasonal upward trend, but the supply pressure during the Mid - Autumn Festival may limit the increase. It is recommended to short - sell on rebounds [26]. - **Apples**: Use a light - position positive arbitrage strategy. The old - season apples' prices are falling, and the new - season apples are expected to oscillate [27]. - **Corn**: The market is oscillating. It is advisable to wait and see and pay attention to the valuation repair opportunity after the market has fallen excessively [28][29]. - **Dates**: Consider short - selling with a light position. The market is in a supply - exceeding - demand pattern in the short term [30]. - **Live Pigs**: Short the near - term contracts with light positions. The supply is expected to increase, and the demand is weak [31]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: It is likely to enter a supply - exceeding - demand pattern in the long run, oscillating in the short term. Attention should be paid to the US - Iran agreement and the summer peak demand [33]. - **Fuel Oil**: Its price follows crude oil. The market is affected by the peak power - generation demand in the Middle East and weak shipping [34][35]. - **Plastics**: The short - term market sentiment may support prices, but the supply - exceeding - demand situation remains. Consider holding put options or short - selling slightly [36]. - **Methanol**: It is expected to oscillate weakly. The supply of imports has recovered, and the port inventory is gradually increasing [37]. - **Caustic Soda**: Do not chase high prices. Maintain a short - selling mindset as the futures contract may face pressure [38]. - **Asphalt**: Its price follows crude oil. The market is in a seasonal off - peak season with only rigid demand [39]. - **Polyester Industry Chain**: Consider short - selling at high prices. The industry's supply - demand situation is weak, and the price rebound is difficult to sustain [40]. - **Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG)**: It is expected to decline. The supply is abundant, and the demand is weak in the medium - long term [41]. - **Pulp**: Observe whether port destocking continues and spot trading improves. The price is expected to have limited upward and downward space [41]. - **Logs**: The 09 contract is expected to oscillate. The import is expected to be weak, and the demand is also soft [43]. - **Urea**: Maintain a long - buying mindset as there are high export profit expectations and export opportunities [43][44].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the doc 2. Core Views 2.1纯碱市场 - 检修带动短期产量偏低但后续将提升，计划内检修较少；国外价格到国内暂无优势，进口窗口未开，国内价格低位出口较好；终端备货充足，需求有回落预期，库存压力难解；市场正反馈情绪回落后维持偏空思路，短期防范风险观望为主 [7][9] 2.2玻璃市场 - 部分前期点火产线等待出品，供应端存政策端利多导向但暂未落地；近周末市场氛围受盘面走强提振，观察梅雨季后市场情绪变化；需求情绪走强库存下行；低位多单持有思路，情绪转弱则灵活离场 [153][155] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1纯碱市场 3.1.1市场综述 - 当期总产量70.89万吨，环比持平，预计后续提升；重质产量40.01万吨，环比增0.43万吨；轻质产量30.88万吨，环比降0.43万吨；进口0.03万吨，环比持平；出口4.1万吨，环比持平；浮法玻璃日熔量158425t/d，环比增650t/d；光伏玻璃日熔量91400t/d，环比降600t/d；重碱消费量33.70万吨，环比增0.02万吨；轻碱表需29.57万吨，环比增0.88万吨；纯碱表需65.50万吨，环比降1.13万吨；碱厂库存186.34万吨，环比增5.39万吨；社会库存23.80万吨，环比增1.00万吨；样本终端原料天数23.36天，环比增1.54天；氨碱法成本1281元，环比持平；氨碱法利润 -81元，环比增40元；联碱法成本1142元，环比降8元；联碱法利润8元，环比增48元；华中重碱 - 轻碱价差0元，环比持平；沙河市场价基差 -75元，环比降48元 [7] 3.1.2月度供需 - 展示了2020 - 2025年各月纯碱当月产量、进口量、表观需求量、出口量数据 [15][17][18][20] 3.1.3基差价差 - 展示了纯碱和玻璃期现货价格对照、纯碱合约基差、跨期价差、玻璃 - 纯碱合约/现货价差数据 [24][25][26][27][29][31][32][34][35][36][38][39][40][41] 3.1.4市场价格 - 沙河区域重质纯碱当期价1207元，环比上周涨23元，环比去年降693元；轻重碱区域价格有不同变化；展示了各区域重质、轻质纯碱价格及价差数据 [44][48][68] 3.1.5供应 - 目前多家企业检修/降负荷，部分企业有计划检修；当期国内纯碱开工率81.32%，环比上周持平，环比去年降6.01%；周产量70.89万吨，环比上周持平，环比去年降1.91%；重质纯碱产量40.01万吨，环比上周增0.43万吨，环比去年降2.47万吨；轻质纯碱产量30.88万吨，环比上周降0.43万吨，环比去年增0.56万吨；重质化率56.44%，环比上周增0.61%，环比去年降1.91%；产销比92.40%，环比上周降1.59%，环比去年降18.59% [74][75] 3.1.6需求 - 展示了浮法、光伏玻璃在产日熔量、重质纯碱日耗量、周度需求、周度表观消费量、产销率及光伏玻璃价格数据 [122][124][126][128][130][131][134][135] 3.1.7库存 - 当期纯碱企业库存186.34万吨，环比增5.39万吨，环比去年增87.98万吨；轻质纯碱企业库存79.13万吨，环比降1.35万吨，环比去年增20.80万吨；重质纯碱企业库存107.21万吨，环比增6.74万吨，环比去年增67.18万吨；库存天数15.45天，环比增0.45天，环比去年增7.19天 [139] 3.1.8仓单数量/有效预报 - Not provided in the doc 3.1.9地产相关数据 - Not provided in the doc 3.2玻璃市场 3.2.1市场综述 - 当期浮法玻璃日熔量158425t/d，环比增650t/d；周产量110.90万吨，环比增0.45万吨；表观消费量120.81万吨，环比增9.71万吨；厂库库存335.51万吨，环比降9.92万吨；天然气线成本1408元，环比增8元；天然气线利润 -178元，环比降8元；煤制气线成本931元，环比增12元；煤制气线利润214元，环比降6元；石油焦线成本1051元，环比增8元；石油焦线利润19元，环比降8元；华东 - 华中价差160元，环比持平；沙河5mm大板基差 -79元，环比降47元 [153] 3.2.2月度供需 - 展示了2020 - 2025年平板玻璃当月产量、浮法玻璃当月进口量、当月产量同比、当月出口量数据 [160][162][163][165] 3.2.3基差价差 - 展示了纯碱和玻璃期现货价格对照、玻璃合约基差、跨期价差、玻璃 - 纯碱合约/现货价差数据 [169][170][171][172][174][175][176][178][180][181][183][184][185][186] 3.2.4市场价格 - 展示了浮法玻璃5mm区域价格，包括沙河、华北、华东等地区不同规格价格及环比情况；还展示了各区域浮法玻璃5mm市场价及沙河、湖北部分企业5mm大板含税价数据 [190][192][193][195][196][198][200][202][204][206][208][210][211][213][215][216][217][219][221][223] 3.2.5供应 - 当期浮法玻璃煤制气企业利润108.78元，环比增22.80元；石油焦企业利润 -50.47元，环比增34.29元；天然气企业利润 -183.11元，环比增5.57元 [227] 3.2.6需求 - Not provided separately in the doc 3.2.7库存 - 厂库库存335.51万吨，环比降9.92万吨，预计后续继续下降 [153]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints - Although the recent sentiment in the commodity market has improved, the rebound is mainly concentrated in the black and new energy - related industries. Methanol currently has high upstream profits and low downstream profits, lacking the logic for valuation repair, so its performance is dull. With the cooling of the geopolitical conflict in the Middle East and the end of the squeeze on port paper goods, the spot liquidity is no longer tight, the spot price has fallen, and methanol has entered a weak and volatile state. The fundamentals of methanol have changed little, with high supply pressure due to high - profit - stimulated upstream production and weak downstream demand growth, making the overall situation of methanol weak. It is recommended to beware of the risk of correction [3][85] - Unilateral strategy: Weak and volatile, beware of correction risk; Hedge strategy: Wait and see [4][86] Summary by Directory 1. Spot Market - Methanol spot market prices declined this week. On Friday, the basis quotation was around 09 - 5 yuan/ton, and the basis quotation for paper goods in late August was around 09 + 30 yuan/ton [8] 2. Basis and Spread - **Basis Quotation**: The methanol basis quotation fluctuated weakly this week, and the basis quotation for paper goods in late August was around 09 + 35 yuan/ton [18] - **Regional Basis**: The coastal basis of methanol fluctuated this week, and the inland basis also fluctuated. The inland market price and the market price in the northwest region fluctuated this week [25][30] - **Regional Spread**: The spread between East China and inland regions of methanol fluctuated weakly [42] - **Near - and Far - Month Spread**: It is recommended to wait and see for the spread for now [50] - **PP - 3MA Spread**: The PP - 3MA spread rebounded oscillatingly this week. The strategy of going long on PP and short on MA can be considered for a small - scale holding [56] 3. Industrial Chain Profits - **Methanol Production**: There are many new overhaul devices, and the methanol operating rate has weakened slightly. Many overhaul devices have resumed production, and the methanol output has started to increase [62][66] - **Downstream Operating Rate**: The operating rate of dimethyl ether fluctuated weakly, the operating rate of formaldehyde fluctuated, and the operating rate of methanol - to - olefins in the northwest region oscillated at a high level [73] - **MTO**: This week, the operating rate of methanol - to - olefins plants oscillated, and the MTO profit rebounded significantly [76] 4. Market Expectation - Methanol will be in a weak and volatile state, and it is necessary to beware of the risk of correction. The unilateral strategy is weak and volatile, beware of correction risk; the hedge strategy is to wait and see [3][4][85][86]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The emotional premium brought by geopolitical conflicts in the polypropylene market is starting to decrease, and there is a risk of price correction. Production profits are expected to continue to weaken, and one should be cautious of the callback risk. It is recommended to close the long - PP short - MA spread strategy and consider buying put options and selling call options [1][7][11]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Recent Market Main Contradictions - Production: This week's production was less than expected due to more newly added maintenance devices. In the next two weeks, device maintenance will decrease, and production may increase slightly. The maintenance loss this week was 16.77 million tons, up 0.98 million tons from last week, and is expected to be zero in the next two weeks. - Supply and demand: The import and export volumes were in line with expectations. The apparent demand decreased by 1.71 million tons this week, and it is expected to be around 81 million tons next week according to seasonality. The inventory increased slightly this week and is expected to continue to increase slightly next week, mainly due to relatively weak apparent demand [6]. 3.2 Polypropylene Supply - Production: This week's national production was 77.01 million tons, 0.36 million tons less than last week. In the next two weeks, it is expected to reach 78.41 million tons and 78.50 million tons respectively. - Maintenance: There are many newly added maintenance devices this week, resulting in less production than expected. In the next two weeks, device maintenance will decrease, and production may increase slightly [6]. 3.3 Polypropylene Supply and Demand Situation - Supply: The national production this week was 77.01 million tons, with an import volume of 7.5 million tons and an export volume of 3.75 million tons. - Demand: The apparent demand this week was 79.48 million tons, 1.71 million tons less than last week. - Inventory: The total inventory increased by 1.28 million tons this week, and is expected to reach 80.53 million tons and 81.36 million tons in the next two weeks respectively. The upstream inventory increased, mainly due to relatively weak apparent demand [6]. 3.4 Polypropylene Upstream Raw Material Situation - Raw materials: The prices of crude oil, coal, and propane fluctuated this week. The cost of oil - based PP increased by 22.38 yuan/ton, the cost of coal - based PP remained unchanged, and the cost of propane - dehydrogenated PP increased by 88.41 yuan/ton. - Cost: The cost side fluctuated strongly this week, and the emotional premium brought by geopolitical conflicts began to decrease. It is expected to fluctuate next week [7]. 3.5 Polypropylene Cost and Profit - Cost: The cost of oil - based PP, coal - based PP, propane - dehydrogenated PP, and externally purchased methanol - based PP all changed to varying degrees this week. - Profit: The comprehensive profit of the oil - chemical end decreased by 110 yuan/ton, and the production profit is expected to continue to weaken. The import profit is still inverted [7]. 3.6 Polypropylene Price and Spread - Basis: The basis showed an overall weakening trend this week, with limited basis trading opportunities. - Inter - month spread: The inter - month spread fluctuated weakly this week. - Variety spread: The spread between pellets and powders was too narrow, which had a certain supporting effect on the pellet price. The long - PP short - MA spread strategy has been recommended to close the position [9]. 3.7 Polypropylene Upstream, Mid - stream, and Downstream Views and Strategies - Upstream: Although upstream maintenance is gradually entering the peak period, the overall supply is still relatively sufficient, and the main idea is to actively sell goods. - Mid - stream: The mid - stream sales situation has slightly deteriorated, and the demand for speculative inventory in the early stage is still being digested, resulting in a short - term decline in transactions. - Downstream: The downstream replenishment willingness has decreased. After the price correction, the downstream's willingness to purchase goods has decreased significantly. - Strategy: Close the long - PP short - MA spread strategy, be cautious of the callback risk, and consider buying put options and selling call options [11].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The polyethylene market is under pressure to accumulate inventory and has entered a weak and volatile phase [1]. - The actual inventory accumulation was slight this week, contrary to the expected destocking [5]. - The upstream profit is expected to continue to weaken, and attention should be paid to whether the import volume decreases in June [6]. - The basis fluctuated this week, and the inter - month spread fluctuated weakly [6]. - The HD - LL spread fluctuated, and it is recommended to temporarily exit and wait and see for the far - month LL - PP spread [6][7]. Summary by Directory 1. Recent Market Main Contradictions - Next week, the number of device overhauls will increase, and production may continue to decrease [5]. - The import volume this week was 28.89 million tons, and the main reason for the decrease was the reduction of US goods in the early stage. The apparent demand this week was worse than expected [5]. - The overall upstream operating rate was 60.10%, and the production decreased slightly this week. The total inventory was expected to be destocked but actually increased slightly [5]. - Crude oil prices fluctuated, and coal prices showed a weakening trend. The comprehensive profit of the oil - chemical end decreased, and the profit of coal - based PE also decreased [6]. 2. Polyethylene Industry Situation Supply - From 2024 to 2025, there were multiple new PE device launches, including Ningxia Baofeng Phase III, Tianjin Nangang, Yulong Petrochemical, etc. in 2024, and Inner Mongolia Baofeng, Exxon (Huizhou), etc. in 2025 [19][20]. - The production and import volume data from June 2025 to August 2025 are provided, and the cumulative production and import volume showed an increasing trend [8]. Demand - The downstream average operating rate, film - covering operating rate, and mulching film operating rate data are not clearly stated in the text, but it is mentioned that the downstream replenishment was not sustainable this week, and the transaction volume decreased [5][7]. - The profits of downstream products such as mulching film, double - prevention film, and winding film are presented in the form of charts, but specific profit data for this week are not clearly summarized [34][35][37]. Inventory - The upstream inventory of "Two - oil" decreased slightly, and the intermediate - level inventory of ports and traders also decreased. However, the total inventory increased slightly this week [5]. - The inventory data from 2020 to 2025 are presented in the form of charts, including petrochemical inventory, total PE inventory, upstream total inventory, and social inventory [42][43][45]. Valuation - The upstream profit, import and export profit, basis, inter - month spread, and variety spread data are provided. The upstream profit generally showed a weakening trend, and the basis and inter - month spread fluctuated [6]. 3. Basis and Spread - The basis fluctuated this week. The North China basis quoted around 09 - 70 on Friday, and the downstream purchasing enthusiasm decreased [50]. - The inter - month spread, such as the 1 - 5, 5 - 9, and 9 - 1 inter - month spreads, fluctuated weakly [6]. - The variety spread, such as HD - LL and LD - LL, also showed different trends of change [6]. 4. Summary and Outlook - It is necessary to beware of the callback risk, and the strategy is to buy out - of - the - money put options and sell call options [7]. - If the demand improves next week, the upstream inventory may decrease [5].

交易咨询资格号： 证监许可[2012]112 晨会纪要 2025 年 7 月 11 日 联系人：王竣冬 期货从业资格：F3024685 交易咨询从业证书号：Z0013759 研究咨询电话： 0531-81678626 客服电话： 400-618-6767 公司网址： www.ztqh.com [Table_QuotePic] 中泰微投研小程序 | 2025/7/11 | | 基于基本面研判 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 趋势空头 | 農荡偏空 | 農药 | 農荡偏多 | 趋势多头 | | | 原油 | 沪深300股指期货 | 多晶硅 | | | | 瓶片 | 沥青 | 橡胶 | | | | PTA | 中证1000指数期货 | 橡胶 | | | | 短纤 | 中证500股指期货 | 玻璃 | | | | 乙二醇 | 上证50股指期货 | 焦炭 | | | | 锌 | 工业硅 | 焦煤 | | | | 对二甲苯 | 燃油 | | | | | 液化石油气 | 十债 | | | | | 三十债 | 白糖 | | | | | 硅铁 | 二债 | | | | | 幸運 ...

晨会纪要 2025 年 7 月 10 日 联系人：王竣冬 期货从业资格：F3024685 交易咨询从业证书号：Z0013759 研究咨询电话： 0531-81678626 客服电话： 400-618-6767 公司网址： www.ztqh.com [Table_QuotePic] 中泰微投研小程序 | 2025/7/10 | | 基于基本面研判 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 趋势空头 | 農荡偏空 | 農あ | 農荡偏多 | 趋势多头 | | | 锌 | 多晶硅 | 燃油 | | | | 苹果 | 上证50股指期货 | 沥青 | | | | 红枣 | 中证500股指期货 | 氧化铝 | | | | 纯碱 | 工业硅 | 三十债 | | | | 锰硅 | 中证1000指数期货 | 橡胶 | | | | 塑料 | 沪深300股指期货 | 尿素 | | | | 硅铁 | 铝 | 稼校 | | | | 甲醇 | 棉花 | 玻璃 | | | | | 十债 | 焦炭 | | | | | 五债 | 焦煤 | | | | | 白糖 | 对二甲苯 | | | | | 棉纱 | ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - Based on fundamental analysis, the market trends of various futures are classified into trend short, short - biased volatile, volatile, long - biased volatile, and trend long. For example, polysilicon is in a trend short, while CSI 1000 Index Futures are volatile [3]. - Based on quantitative indicators, futures are classified as short - biased, volatile, and long - biased. For example, Shanghai Silver is short - biased, while Corn Starch is long - biased [7]. - In the macro - financial sector, for stock index futures, it is advisable to consider buying on dips and focus on the repair of the discount. For treasury bond futures, a volatile strategy is recommended [13][14]. - In the black sector, the short - term rebound of black futures is not advisable to chase short, and it is recommended to go short on rallies later [17][18]. - In the non - ferrous and new materials sector, aluminum and alumina are expected to be volatile, and it is recommended to operate within a range. For lithium carbonate, an oscillatory approach is recommended, and attention should be paid to the possibility of upstream production cuts [25][28]. - In the agricultural products sector, for cotton, the price is under pressure to rebound. For sugar, the international market is expected to have oversupply pressure, and the domestic market's future supply depends on imports. For eggs, it is recommended to short on rallies for the 07 - 09 contracts. For apples, a light - position positive spread strategy is recommended. For dates, it is recommended to reduce short positions appropriately. For live pigs, it is recommended to go short on rallies for near - month contracts and focus on the 7 - 9/3 - 5 reverse spread strategy [32][34][36][38][39][40]. - In the energy and chemical sector, fuel oil prices will follow crude oil prices, and plastic may be short - term strong. Methanol is expected to rebound in the short term but with limited upside. For asphalt, it is expected to rebound following oil prices. For the polyester industry chain, it is advisable to go short on rallies or consider the 9 - 1 reverse spread for PTA. For pulp, it is recommended to wait and see in the short term, and for urea, short - term short operations are advisable for short positions [43][45][46][47][48][49][50]. Summary by Directory Macro News - The finance ministers and central bank governors of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization member states held a meeting in Beijing, discussing issues such as deepening regional financial cooperation and establishing a financial think - tank network [10]. - US economic data in May was weak. The ADP employment increase was lower than expected, and the ISM non - manufacturing PMI contracted for the first time in nearly a year. Trump called for the Fed to cut interest rates [10]. - FTSE Russell announced the quarterly review changes of the FTSE China Index series, with Jiangsu Bank being included in the FTSE China A50 Index and Great Wall Motor being removed [10]. - Trump's tariff policy is expected to cut the deficit by $2.8 trillion in 10 years but will lead to economic contraction and inflation [11]. - The Fed's "Beige Book" showed that the US economic activity declined slightly, and businesses faced cost - pushing pressure from tariffs [11]. - The US and Russian presidents had a phone call to discuss the Russia - Ukraine conflict and other issues [11]. Macro - Financial Stock Index Futures - The market liquidity expectation is high, and the market presents a general upward trend. The short - term disturbance may exist, but the stock index trend is optimistic, and it is advisable to consider buying on dips and focus on the repair of the discount [13]. Treasury Bond Futures - After the cross - month, the capital market is loose, and the bond market sentiment is warm. The short - term bond is relatively expensive compared to the capital valuation, which restricts the long - side strength. A volatile strategy is recommended [14]. Container Shipping on the European Line - The previous trading momentum has been released, and the focus is now on the implementation of the freight rate increase on the European line. The 08 contract may be more elastic in the peak - season contracts but is currently in a high position and lacks new positive drivers. In the long - term, factors such as the re - balance of shipping capacity between routes and the peak - season demand need to be considered [15]. Black Steel and Iron Ore - Affected by the sharp rise in coking coal, the steel price rebounds after a significant decline. In the future, the downstream demand is expected to weaken, and the supply is expected to remain stable. It is not advisable to chase short in the short - term, and it is recommended to go short on rallies later [17][18]. Coking Coal and Coke - The fundamentals of coking coal and coke have not changed substantially, and the medium - term trend is still weak. The short - term is affected by news and is expected to maintain a volatile rebound [18]. Ferrosilicon and Manganese Silicon - The fundamentals of ferrosilicon are relatively strong, and it is recommended to go long on dips. For manganese silicon, it is recommended to stop losses for short positions on dips [20]. Soda Ash and Glass - The short - term supply pressure of soda ash increases, and the spot price weakens. The production of float glass is stable with a slight increase, and the demand is not significantly improved. The prices of both are expected to be weak, and the short - term rebound space is limited [22]. Non - Ferrous and New Materials Aluminum and Alumina - Aluminum has low inventory and strong demand resilience but faces pressure in some terminal sectors. Alumina's supply is recovering, and both are expected to be volatile, and it is recommended to operate within a range [25]. Lithium Carbonate - The impact of tariffs on lithium carbonate is not obvious. The short - term price is mainly affected by its own supply - demand changes. The possibility of further decline is reduced, and an oscillatory approach is recommended [28]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - For industrial silicon, a short - biased view is maintained before the effective reduction of supply during the wet season. For polysilicon, the over - supply contradiction is expected to deepen in June, and it is recommended to hold short positions or sell call options [29]. Agricultural Products Cotton - The cotton price is under pressure to rebound due to factors such as insufficient production motivation and inventory digestion. The future price is affected by macro - situation and supply - demand changes, and it is expected to be in a low - level oscillatory state [32][33]. Sugar - The international sugar market is expected to have oversupply pressure, and the domestic market's future supply depends on imports. The price is expected to be weak [34][35]. Eggs - In June, the supply and demand of eggs are expected to be relatively loose, and the price pressure is large. However, the downside support is increasing, and it is recommended to short on rallies for the 07 - 09 contracts [36]. Apples - A light - position positive spread strategy is recommended. The current inventory is low, and the price is expected to be stable. Attention should be paid to the fruit - setting situation in the producing areas [38]. Dates - It is recommended to reduce short positions appropriately. The supply is sufficient, and the demand is weak, and the price is expected to be in a range - bound state [39]. Live Pigs - It is recommended to go short on rallies for near - month contracts and focus on the 7 - 9/3 - 5 reverse spread strategy. The supply pressure is increasing, and the demand is expected to decline seasonally [40][41]. Energy and Chemical Fuel Oil - The price of fuel oil will follow the crude oil price, and the price is stronger than that of crude oil. The Middle East power - generation peak season and shipping weakness interact, and there is no main contradiction currently [43]. Plastics - The market sentiment has improved, and it may be short - term strong. It is recommended to take a short - term long position and pay attention to the profit - taking. For the inter - month spread, a long position for the 9 - 1 spread is recommended [45]. Methanol - The short - term rebound is expected, but the upside space is limited. It is recommended to go short after the rebound. The supply pressure is large, but the low price will stimulate downstream demand [46]. Asphalt - It is expected to rebound following oil prices, with the upper pressure in the range of $3450 - 3480. The price is weaker than that of oil [47]. Polyester Industry Chain - It is advisable to go short on rallies or consider the 9 - 1 reverse spread for PTA. The supply is increasing marginally, and the downstream demand is decreasing marginally, and the price is expected to decline [48]. Pulp - The short - term is expected to be oscillatory, and it is recommended to wait and see. Attention should be paid to the raw material and finished - product inventory rhythm [49]. Urea - There are positive factors on the policy side, but the futures price is closely related to the overall commodity futures market. Short - term short operations are advisable for short positions [50].