Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for China Merchants Bank (招商银行) [3] Core Insights - The bank's revenue for 2025 is projected to be RMB 337.5 billion, showing a slight year-on-year increase of 0.01% [6][8] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to reach RMB 150.2 billion, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 1.2% [6][8] - The bank's non-performing loan (NPL) ratio remains stable at 0.94%, with a provision coverage ratio decreasing by 14 percentage points to 392% [6][8] - The report highlights a recovery in core revenue, particularly in net interest income, which is expected to grow by 2% in 2025 [8] - The bank's stock price is currently trading at a price-to-book (PB) ratio of 0.76, with a dividend yield of approximately 5.4%, indicating strong value [8][9] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Total operating income is projected to be RMB 337.5 billion for 2025, with a slight increase expected in subsequent years [7] - The net interest income is forecasted to be RMB 215.6 billion in 2025, with a growth rate of 2% [7][13] - The bank's return on equity (ROE) is expected to decline to 13.43% in 2025, down from 14.49% in 2024 [7][13] - The report anticipates a gradual increase in net profit growth rates for 2025-2027, with estimates of 1.2%, 2.5%, and 3.6% respectively [8][13]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the industry, highlighting the potential for growth in high-performance outdoor brands and the non-woven fabric sector [21]. Core Insights - The textile and apparel sector outperformed the market, with the SW textile and apparel index rising by 4.5% from January 19 to January 23, 2026, surpassing the SW All A index by 2.7 percentage points [3][4]. - The report anticipates a recovery in domestic demand in 2026, with a focus on high-growth areas such as high-performance outdoor brands and discount retail [16]. - The report notes a divergence in brand performance, with high-end outdoor and niche sports brands showing strong potential, while overall industry growth is expected to slow due to warm winter temperatures and delayed Spring Festival [10][12]. Summary by Sections Textile Sector - The report indicates that the demand for Australian wool is expected to rise due to a decrease in supply and an increase in demand for sports wool apparel, with prices reaching 1137 cents per kilogram, a 54% year-on-year increase [9][15]. - The non-woven fabric industry is projected to benefit from quality upgrades and expanding demand, with companies like Sturdy, Yanjiang, and Nuobang expected to maintain rapid growth [12][14]. Apparel Sector - Anta and Xtep reported their Q4 2025 operational data, with Anta's main brand experiencing a slight decline in retail sales, while FILA showed mid-single-digit growth, exceeding expectations [10][18]. - The report highlights that the overall apparel sector is facing challenges due to warm weather and the timing of the Spring Festival, but anticipates improved sales as temperatures drop and the holiday extends [10][11]. Industry Performance - The report provides insights into the overall performance of the textile and apparel industry, noting a 3.9% year-on-year increase in total retail sales of consumer goods in 2025, with the apparel and textile category growing by 3.2% [33]. - Exports of textiles and apparel saw a decline of 2.6% year-on-year, with December exports dropping by 7.4%, indicating a need for strategic adjustments in response to global market conditions [39]. Company-Specific Insights - Anta's overall revenue is expected to achieve double-digit growth, driven by a strong multi-brand strategy, despite some challenges in its main brand performance [21][18]. - The report emphasizes the potential for recovery in the women's apparel segment, with brands like Ge Li Si and Di Su showing signs of improvement after a period of adjustment [11][12].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report highlights the resurgence of the commercial aerospace sector driven by the space photovoltaic theme, with significant stock performance from companies like Liancheng CNC and Optec [11][12] - The North Exchange 50 index increased by 2.6%, while trading volume decreased, indicating a shift of funds from large-cap indices to small-cap stocks [6][16] - The report notes that public fund disclosures for Q4 2025 show a decrease in the market value of heavy holdings in the North Exchange, suggesting a trend of profit-taking among investors [12] Group 2 - The report emphasizes the importance of Elon Musk's statements at the Davos Forum, which have activated interest in the space photovoltaic sector, with a focus on companies like Liancheng CNC [13] - Investment analysis suggests maintaining high market activity before the Spring Festival, with recommendations to invest in undervalued stocks and sectors with good growth prospects, such as semiconductors and AI computing [13] - The report details the performance of new stocks listed on the North Exchange, including Aisheren and Guoliang New Materials, which saw significant first-day price increases [28][31] Group 3 - The report provides a detailed analysis of stock performance, noting that 218 stocks rose while 71 fell, with a rise-to-fall ratio of 3.07, indicating a strong market sentiment [38] - It highlights the top-performing stocks of the week, including Huawai Design and Liancheng CNC, which experienced substantial gains [40] - The report also discusses the trading dynamics, with a notable decrease in trading volume and turnover rates for certain stocks, reflecting market volatility [43][26] Group 4 - The report outlines the new listings and financing activities in the New Third Board, indicating a healthy pipeline of new companies entering the market [49] - It mentions the completion of financing for several companies, showcasing the ongoing interest and investment in emerging sectors [50][51] - The report concludes with a summary of the current state of the New Third Board, including the number of companies listed and the financing amounts raised [49][50]

债 券 周 评 相关研究 徐亚 A0230524060002 xuya@swsresearch.com 2026 年 01 月 25 日 转债跟随小微盘同步活跃 ——转债周度跟踪 20260123 ⚫ 1. 周观点及展望 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 中庚基金 使用。1 证券分析师 黄伟平 A0230524110002 huangwp@swsresearch.com 王明路 A0230525060003 wangml@swsresearch.com 徐亚 A0230524060002 xuya@swsresearch.com 联系人 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 债 券 研 究 证 券 研 究 报 告 - ⚫ 近期小微盘表现活跃，虽然政策层面主动释放降温信号，但小微盘仍受益于流动性宽松， 中证 2000 和万得小微盘指数领涨。和转债风格较为适配，转债对应正股大幅上涨，转债 同步拉升估值，转债百元溢价率和价格中位数等估值指标再创 2017 年新高，结构上来看 表现较强的是 130-140 元、150 元以上价格带，高平价转债表现依旧活跃，次新转债相 对表现不佳。当前权益市场牛市预期已较为一致，资金活 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Since 2026, the CSI 500 Index has performed prominently among major broad - based indices, breaking the historical monotonicity of performance based on market - value factors. Whether this phenomenon will continue requires further observation. The concentration of hot industries and a small number of stocks contributing a large portion of the index's gains have made it difficult to outperform the index. Also, factor inefficiencies, especially the reversal of price - volume factors, have led to the underperformance of index - enhancement products and quantitative strategies [1][4]. - The current market situation is an extreme case in factor performance. Although no single factor has reached its historical worst, the combined performance of multiple factors is the worst in history. However, based on historical experience, factor logic will return as market volatility decreases, usually within two months [1][40]. - Looking ahead, the situation of factor inefficiency or reversal is not expected to last long, so major model adjustments are not advisable at present. In the long run, a detailed risk - control framework for CSI 500 index enhancement should be established, and the construction of price - volume factors should be optimized [1][70]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 2026 Year - to - Date CSI 500 Index Performance Highlights - As of January 23, 2026, the CSI 500 Index has risen 15.06%, outperforming the SSE 300, CSI 1000, and CSI 2000 indices during the same period, breaking the historical monotonicity of broad - based index performance related to market - value factors [4]. - The index's strong performance is due to its concentration in sectors that have performed well in 2026, such as electronics, non - ferrous metals, and national defense and military industries. A small number of stocks have contributed significantly to the index's gains; the top 5 stocks contributed 1.47% of the increase, and the top 40 stocks contributed nearly half of the increase [7][11]. 3.2 Factor Perspective: Why Is It Difficult to Outperform the CSI 500 Index? 3.2.1 Index - Enhancement Funds Collectively Underperform the Index - All CSI 500 index - enhancement funds have underperformed the CSI 500 Index in 2026, with an average underperformance of 2.5%. The best - performing product underperformed by 0.12%, and the worst by 7.93%. Active quantitative quasi - index - enhancement products were more affected, with an average underperformance of 3.91%, the best - performing product underperforming by 2.07%, and the worst by 7.61% [13][15]. 3.2.2 Factor Changes within the CSI 500 Index - Since 2017, the market - value factors in the SSE 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 indices have shown continuous reversal and decline. The market - value factor in the CSI 1000 index rebounded strongly in 2021, while those in the CSI 500 and SSE 300 indices only had a weak rebound [16]. - In 2026, many factors in the CSI 500 Index showed significant anomalies. Fundamental factors such as profitability, dividend yield, and valuation were negative, and price - volume factors such as liquidity, reversal, market value, and volatility not only reversed but also had larger IC values. The short - term rapid market rise and overheated market led to the continued rise of theme stocks with fast short - term gains, high turnover, and high volatility, causing the reversal and ineffectiveness of price - volume factors [19][20]. - The long - term winning rates of factors such as valuation, momentum, reversal, market value, and liquidity are poor, around 50% or lower. In 2026, there was a concentrated reversal of price - volume factors, and the low - volatility factor, which had a high long - term winning rate, also reversed in January 2026 [26]. - The changes in the four price - volume factors (market value, reversal, low liquidity, and low volatility) generally started in the third quarter of 2025, gradually flattening or reversing. The top - performing stocks in 2026 generally ranked low in these price - volume factors, making it difficult for traditional multi - factor frameworks to select them [35]. 3.3 Historical Similar Situations Review and Future Outlook 3.3.1 The Current Market Is an Extreme Case in Factor Performance - In January 2026, no single factor reached its historical worst IC value. However, the combined performance of the four price - volume factors was the worst in history, and when considering all nine factors, it was the second - worst, only after June 2022 [39][40]. 3.3.2 Historical Similar Situations of the CSI 500 and Subsequent Developments - Similar extreme situations in factor performance have occurred in June 2018, August 2025, etc. Market fluctuations are an important factor affecting factor effectiveness. When the market fluctuates significantly, factors are likely to become ineffective, and when the market stabilizes, factor logic tends to return. Historical experience shows that factor inefficiency usually does not last more than two months [42][69]. 3.3.3 Future Outlook - The situation of factor inefficiency or reversal is not expected to last long, so major model adjustments are not recommended at present. - In the long run, a detailed risk - control framework for CSI 500 index enhancement should be established, including differential constraints on individual stocks with different excess - volatility characteristics and industry - constraint frameworks based on industry - scoring models. - The construction of price - volume factors should be optimized to improve their winning rates and reduce non - linear characteristics [70][71].

(01368) 型公司 纺织服饰 2026 年 01 月 25 日 主品牌表现稳健,索康尼延续强劲趋势 报告原因:有业绩公布需要点评 婴人(维持) | 市场数据: | 2026 年 01 月 23 日 | | --- | --- | | 收盘价（港币） | 5.08 | | 恒生中国企业指数 | 9160.81 | | 52 周最高/最低（港币） | 6.83/4.46 | | H 股市值（亿港币） | 142.55 | | 流通 H 股 (百万股) | 2,806.07 | | 汇率（港币/人民币） | 0.8968 | 一年内股价与基准指数对比走势: 76% 26% 资料来源：Bloomberg 证券分析师 王立平 A0230511040052 wanglp@swsresearch.com 刘佩 A0230523070002 liupei@swsresearch.com 联系人 刘佩 A0230523070002 liupei@swsresearch.com 申万宏源研究微信服务号 投资要点: 财务数据及盈利预测 | 货币单位:人民币 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025E | FY202 ...

2026 年 01 月 25 日 神工股份 (688233) 硅零部件连续 3 年高增，刻蚀硅材料景气回归 报告原因:有业绩公布需要点评 型入(维持) | 市场数据: 2026 年 01 月 23 日 | | --- | | 收盘价（元） 88.60 | | 一年内最高/最低（元） 92.23/18.36 | | 市净率 8.1 | | 股息率%（分红/股价） 0.08 | | 流通 A 股市值 (百万元) 15,089 | | ┣证指数/深证成指 | | 注："股息率"以最近一年已公布分红计算 | | 基础数据: | 2025年09月30日 | | --- | --- | | 每股净资产 (元) | 10.90 | | 资产负债率% | 7.21 | | 总股本/流通 A 股 (百万) | 170/170 | | 流通 B 股/H 股 (百万) | -/- | -年内股价与大盛对比走势： 神工股份 沪深300指数 相关研究 《神工股份（688233） 点评： 硅材料毛利 率修复至 64%, 硅零件营收高增 2 倍》 2025/03/28 《神工股份（688233）点评：刻蚀材料周 期见底,硅零件收入同比+1 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Insights - The main brand of the company shows stable performance, while the subsidiary brand, Saucony, continues its strong growth trend. The overall performance aligns with expectations, with the main brand achieving low single-digit growth for the year [6] - The company has successfully optimized its multi-brand matrix by divesting from fashion sports brands and focusing on core running business, which is expected to strengthen its competitive advantage in the running segment [6] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Revenue projections for FY2023 to FY2027 are as follows: - FY2023: 143 billion RMB - FY2024: 136 billion RMB (down 5%) - FY2025E: 142.8 billion RMB (up 5%) - FY2026E: 151 billion RMB (up 6%) - FY2027E: 161 billion RMB (up 6%) [5] - Net profit forecasts for the same period are: - FY2023: 10.3 billion RMB - FY2024: 12.4 billion RMB (up 20%) - FY2025E: 13.7 billion RMB (up 11%) - FY2026E: 14.9 billion RMB (up 8%) - FY2027E: 16.0 billion RMB (up 8%) [5] - The earnings per share (EPS) is projected to increase from 0.41 RMB in FY2023 to 0.57 RMB in FY2027 [5] Sales Performance - The main brand's retail sales performance for Q4 2023 showed over 30% year-on-year growth, with a stable discount rate of 7-7.5 [10] - The company plans to open 20-30 new flagship stores in 2026 and has already opened around 30 outlet stores, with an average monthly sales performance exceeding 1 million RMB [6]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The company has experienced a significant increase in revenue from silicon components over the past three years, with a notable recovery in the etching silicon materials market [1] - The company is expected to benefit from a resurgence in global storage semiconductor demand and accelerated domestic substitution in the second half of 2025 [8] - The company has adjusted its revenue and net profit forecasts for 2025, 2026, and 2027, reflecting a positive outlook due to increasing demand [8] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Total revenue projections are as follows: - 2024: 303 million - 2025: 441 million - 2026: 764 million - 2027: 1,028 million - Year-on-year growth rates for total revenue are projected at: - 2024: 124.2% - 2025: 45.8% - 2026: 73.2% - 2027: 34.5% [7] - Net profit forecasts are as follows: - 2024: 41 million - 2025: 105 million - 2026: 222 million - 2027: 319 million - Year-on-year growth rates for net profit are projected at: - 2025: 155.4% - 2026: 110.8% - 2027: 44.0% [7] - The company’s gross margin is expected to improve, reaching 47.3% in 2026 [8]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the home appliance industry, particularly on leading companies in the white and black goods sectors, highlighting their low valuations, high dividends, and stable growth potential [2][3]. Core Insights - The report identifies three main investment themes: 1. **Dividend and Growth**: Leading companies in the white and black goods sectors are characterized by low valuations, high dividends, and stable growth, providing a high safety margin and significant price elasticity. The impact of the trade-in policy is expected to continue positively into 2026 [2][3]. 2. **Technological Transition**: Key upstream component manufacturers are diversifying into emerging technology sectors such as robotics, data center temperature control, and semiconductors, seeking cross-industry transformation [2][3]. 3. **Market Demand**: Both domestic and international markets show promising demand, with established companies expanding production bases globally to mitigate trade fluctuations and capture growth in emerging markets [2][3]. Sales Data Summary - **Air Conditioning**: In December 2025, online retail sales volume was 720,000 units, a year-on-year decrease of 38.5%, while offline sales volume was 162,000 units, down 42.9%. The average online retail price decreased by 4.2% to 2,981 yuan per unit, and the offline average price fell by 20.1% to 3,801 yuan per unit [2][3][35]. - **Kitchen Appliances**: - **Range Hoods**: Online sales volume was 443,000 units, down 16.8%, while offline sales were 57,000 units, down 32.1%. The online average price increased by 14.4% to 1,739 yuan per unit, while the offline average price decreased by 14.4% to 3,813 yuan per unit [3][41]. - **Dishwashers**: Online sales volume was 49,000 units, down 10.2%, and offline sales were 5,000 units, down 44.2%. The online average price decreased by 1.1% to 4,245 yuan per unit, while the offline average price increased by 1.4% to 7,990 yuan per unit [3][41]. Company Updates - **Yitian Intelligent**: Forecasts a net loss of 186 to 152 million yuan for 2025, compared to a profit of 26.54 million yuan in 2024 [5][11]. - **Roborock Technology**: Launched new products including the G30S Pro and P20 Ultra, featuring advanced cleaning technologies and high efficiency [5][12]. - **Stock Performance**: The home appliance sector outperformed the CSI 300 index, with notable gains from companies like Aojiahua (10.1%) and Hisense Visual (5.7%) [5][6][8]. Macro Economic Environment - As of January 23, 2026, the USD to RMB exchange rate was 6.9929, reflecting a decrease of 0.51% since the beginning of the year [46][48]. - In December 2025, the total retail sales of consumer goods reached 45,135.90 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.86% [48][49].