Investment Rating - The report maintains a full-year performance guidance with expectations for flat profit and cautious gross margin, while net profit margin is expected to improve year-on-year due to optimized expense ratios [3][10]. Core Viewpoints - The overall sales revenue for retail and wholesale operations in 1Q FY25 declined by a mid-single-digit percentage year-over-year, aligning with the company's progress plan amid a stable consumer environment [2][8]. - Direct-to-consumer online sales accounted for 40% of total direct sales in 1Q FY25, up from 30-40% for the full year last year, indicating a strategic shift towards online channels [2][10]. - The company is focusing on improving online efficiency and optimizing inventory management, with a cautious approach to discounting and inventory control [2][10][12]. Summary by Sections Sales Performance - Total sales revenue (pre-tax) for retail and wholesale operations in 1Q FY25 saw a mid-single-digit percentage decline year-over-year, attributed to a high base from the previous year [2][8]. - Offline foot traffic remained weak, with same-store foot traffic declining by double digits, while direct-to-consumer online sales grew significantly [2][8]. Promotional Activities - The promotional atmosphere during the 618 shopping festival was strong, with the company effectively managing multiple small peaks, resulting in profits meeting expectations [3][9]. - Consumer behavior showed rational decision-making, with increased acceptance of new products and a willingness to pay for quality [3][9]. Operational Strategy - The company continues to optimize its channel area, with a 1.3% quarter-on-quarter decrease in gross sales area of directly operated stores, a slower pace than the previous quarter [4][11]. - Collaborative brands are expected to see improved order volumes, with proactive adjustments in product offerings and a focus on high-quality items [12][13]. Brand Partnerships - The company adheres to an exclusive partnership model in China, recently announcing exclusive agency rights for several brands, including high-end outdoor and running brands [5][13]. - The introduction of new brands is aimed at enhancing consumer engagement and expanding market reach, particularly in the outdoor and running segments [5][13].

[Table_Title] 研究报告 Research Report 25 Jun 2025 New Industria 高利率成本加重美国基础设施建设负担。美国发电及输配电建设项目的融资渠道包括联邦项目（通过 IRA 和 IIJA，每 个项目 20-30 亿美元）、公用事业费率支付者模式（仅输电项目每年就达 400 亿美元）、私人投资（公私合作项目、 ITP 等）以及州政府主导的资金支持。联邦政府的资金支持在建设中至关重要，但仍然需要私人资本和州政府作为补 充，在建设过程中，许可延迟和成本分摊纠纷等事件都会影响建设进度，如冗长的审批流程（7-12 年）导致资金锁 定期延长，增加了融资成本，利率走低可缓解政府支出及项目融资的压力，利于加快项目的建设。 数据中心建设支出中融资比例较高，降息有利于项目加快落地。美国超大规模 AI 数据中心项目带动大量资本需求， 数据中心开发融资通常涉及覆盖项目成本 65%-80%的贷款，资金来源主要包括主流贷款机构、房地产投资银行、私 募信贷基金以及专注于基础设施的贷款机构等，常见融资利率区间因贷款机构类型和融资结构而异，项目融资一般 约为基准利率加上 3.25%-3.50%利差 ...

Market Overview - Southeast Asia ETF fell by 2.99% in the past two weeks (2025/06/07-2025/06/20) [1] - Thailand and Indonesia markets remain under pressure, while Vietnam shows signs of recovery [1] - Southeast Asia ETF underperformed compared to Japan, Latin America, the United States, and China [1] Country-Specific Performance - iShares MSCI Indonesia ETF decreased by 4.70%, underperforming by 1.71 percentage points [2] - iShares MSCI Singapore ETF fell by 2.87%, outperforming by 0.13 percentage points [2] - iShares MSCI Thailand ETF dropped by 6.41%, underperforming by 3.42 percentage points due to political turmoil and economic concerns [2] - iShares MSCI Malaysia ETF declined by 1.40%, outperforming by 1.59 percentage points [2] - Global X MSCI Vietnam ETF decreased by 0.48%, outperforming by 2.52 percentage points, with improved market sentiment recently [2] Risk Factors - Risks include macroeconomic downturn and geopolitical uncertainties [3]

Economic Growth - Vietnam's GDP growth rate averaged 7.2% from 1988 to 1999, significantly higher than the emerging markets average of 3.7%[8] - From 2000 to 2024, Vietnam's GDP growth rate is projected to average 6.4%, surpassing the emerging markets average of 5.2% and the global average of 3.5%[8] - By 2024, Vietnam's GDP is expected to account for over 0.4% of the global total, up from less than 0.05% in 1990[8] Foreign Investment and Trade - Foreign direct investment (FDI) in Vietnam surged from $4 million in 1989 to $18.5 billion in 2023, with FDI accounting for over 10% of fixed capital formation[12] - Vietnam's trade volume increased from under $3 billion before "Doi Moi" to nearly $800 billion by 2024, with a global trade share rising to 1.6%[12] Manufacturing Opportunities - The manufacturing sector constituted 23.9% of Vietnam's GDP in 2023, significantly above the global average of 15%[16] - Manufacturing investment accounted for 24.4% of total investment in 2023, leading all sectors[16] Consumer Market Potential - Vietnam's population is projected to exceed 100 million by 2024, with a median age of 34 years, indicating a youthful demographic[28] - Urbanization rate reached 39.5% in 2023, with plans to increase to 45% and 50% by 2025 and 2030, respectively[28] Consumer Preferences - OPPO leads the smartphone market with a 25% share, followed by Samsung at 22% and Apple at 20%[33] - In the home appliance sector, Samsung dominates the TV market with a 46% share, while LG holds 22%[33] Electric Two-Wheeler Market - Over 74 million two-wheelers were registered in Vietnam by 2023, making it the second-largest market in ASEAN after Indonesia[40] - The market share of electric motorcycles increased from 1.2% in 2017 to 10.4% in 2021, with projections suggesting it could reach 75% by 2035[40] Risks and Challenges - Rising labor costs in Vietnam, with average monthly wages increasing from $89 in 2007 to approximately $330 in 2023[19] - Increased competition due to a surge in manufacturing enterprises entering the Vietnamese market, leading to higher operational pressures[25]

[Table_Title] 研究报告 Research Report 24 Jun 2025 日本必需消费可选消费 Japan Staples Discretionary 日本消费行业 5 月跟踪报告：国内需求企稳，免税销售承压 Domestic demand stabilizes while duty-free sales face pressure | 芮雯 Raven Rui | 闻宏伟 Hongwei Wen | Qiao Xu | 季屏子 Pingzi Ji | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | raven.w.rui@htisec.com | hongwei.wen@htisec.com | qiao.xu@htisec.com | pz.ji@htisec.com | [Table_summary] (Please see APPENDIX 1 for English summary) 宏观：消费者信心指数回升，核心 CPI 加速上行。5 月日本消费者信心指数从 4 月的两年低点 31.2 回升至 32.8，环 比上升 1.6。3 月实际工资同比下降 1.8%，连续四个月下 ...

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the packaged food industry, particularly in the pet sector. Core Insights - The pet industry showed strong growth during the 618 shopping festival in 2025, with Tmall dominating the market with a share of 67%, significantly higher than its competitors [1][4][18]. - Domestic brands like Rosy Fresh, Myfoodie, and Legendsandy have emerged strongly, disrupting the traditional dominance of imported brands in the pet food market [20][22][26]. - The competition among brands is intense, with significant shifts in rankings year over year, indicating a dynamic market environment [23]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - During the 618 shopping festival, Tmall's pet live turnover increased by nearly 180% year-on-year, while JD Supermarket reported a 32% increase in pet user transactions [1][18]. - Over 1,000 new brands participated in the 618 event, showcasing the growing interest and competition in the pet food sector [1][18]. Brand Analysis - Tmall's rankings featured a balanced mix of traditional high-end foreign brands and emerging domestic brands, with Rosy Fresh securing the top position [2][19]. - JD's cat food rankings indicated a trend towards premiumization, while its dog food rankings reflected a blend of cost-effectiveness and premium options [2][19]. - The report highlighted the impressive growth of new domestic brands, with 371 brands on Tmall achieving triple-digit growth, including MEATYWAY and Toptrees [21][22]. Competitive Landscape - The competitive landscape is characterized by a shift from a single-brand dominance to a multi-brand ecosystem, with domestic brands innovating and adapting to new marketing channels [26]. - Royal Canin maintained a strong presence in the market, particularly in JD's rankings, but faced increasing competition from domestic brands [25][26]. - The report emphasizes the need for traditional brands to adapt to changing consumer preferences and digital marketing trends to maintain their market positions [26].

Investment Rating - The report maintains the full-year performance guidance unchanged for Giant Biogene, indicating confidence in the company's ability to recover revenue growth in the latter half of the year [10][11]. Core Insights - The recombinant collagen industry is in its early development stage, lacking unified testing and quality standards, which affects the accuracy of testing results [2][7]. - The company experienced a controllable impact on its online business during the 618 sales period, with sales of its Comfy brand ranking second in Tmall's domestic beauty products [8]. - The offline business remained stable, with strong performance in hospitals and pharmacies, unaffected by recent public opinion events [9]. - The company plans to enhance brand communication and consumer trust through various initiatives, including transparent communication and collaboration with research institutions [12]. - Future online marketing strategies will focus on "people, goods, and places," aiming to improve customer engagement and brand exposure [13]. Summary by Sections Business Update - The company discussed recent public opinion events and their impact on operations during the June 24, 2025, meeting [6]. - The online sales of Comfy were initially affected by a public opinion event but returned to normal levels shortly after [8]. - Offline sales of major medical device products remained strong, supporting stable business development [9]. Financial Performance - The profit margin in the first half of 2025 was not adversely affected by public opinion events, with a positive impact from the increase in offline business proportion [11]. - The company is confident in recovering revenue growth in the third and fourth quarters through refined operations and continuous investment [10]. Future Strategies - The company aims to strengthen brand and consumer communication to enhance trust and loyalty [12]. - Marketing efforts will include differentiated offerings for new and existing customers, leveraging the professionalism of medical devices [13].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for Ascentage Pharma with a target price of HKD 84.60, up from a previous target of HKD 53.10 [2][30]. Core Insights - Lisaftoclax has demonstrated potential to overcome resistance to venetoclax in patients with acute myeloid leukemia (AML) and myelodysplastic syndromes (MDS), showcasing promising efficacy and safety data [7][23]. - The report highlights the significant clinical data presented at the ASCO 2025 meeting, marking the first international study demonstrating a novel Bcl-2 inhibitor overcoming venetoclax resistance [23][26]. - The company is actively progressing in global registration studies for high-risk MDS and first-line AML, enhancing the potential for out-licensing opportunities [26][30]. Financial Summary - The company's market capitalization is HKD 25.19 billion (USD 3.21 billion) with a current share price of HKD 72.30 [2]. - Revenue projections for FY25-27 are RMB 570 million, RMB 2.99 billion, and RMB 2.80 billion, respectively, with net profit estimates of RMB -840 million, RMB 1.25 billion, and RMB 910 million [29][30]. - The gross profit margin is expected to remain high, with estimates of 90.1% in FY25 and 98.1% in FY26 [14]. Clinical Data Highlights - In a study of 28 relapsed/refractory AML patients with prior venetoclax resistance, the overall response rate (ORR) was 31.8%, with 22.8% achieving complete remission [4][17]. - For newly diagnosed AML patients, the ORR was 83.3%, with 33.3% achieving complete remission [18]. - In MDS/CMML patients, the ORR was 80% for treatment-naïve patients and 50% for relapsed/refractory patients, indicating strong efficacy [19][25]. Valuation - The report utilizes a risk-adjusted discounted cash flow (DCF) model, with a WACC of 10.0% and a terminal growth rate of 3.5%, leading to a revised target price of HKD 84.60 per share [30].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry or company involved Core Insights - JD.com has launched the "JD Hotel PLUS Membership Program," entering the hotel and travel sector with a zero-commission model for up to three years, aiming to drive traffic through multiple channels [1][7] - The strategy focuses on supply chain integration to reduce procurement costs for small and medium-sized hotels, addressing inefficiencies in traditional procurement practices [2][8] - JD's zero-commission policy directly challenges existing OTA platforms that charge 15-30% commissions, significantly easing cash flow burdens for merchants [3][9] - Positive market feedback has been observed from regional hotel chains and mid-sized operators, particularly in lower-tier markets [4][10] - JD aims to create an integrated consumption loop by linking food, lodging, and transportation, leveraging its existing high-frequency service infrastructure [3][11] - The company targets high-value travel segments through its PLUS membership and enterprise client resources, potentially enhancing overall profitability metrics [4][12] - Despite its differentiated approach, JD faces challenges in consumer perception and operational execution in the travel booking space [3][13] Summary by Sections Event Overview - JD.com officially launched its hotel and travel program in June 2025, offering zero commission for participating hotels and emphasizing supply chain integration [1][7] Strategic Approach - The company aims to reshape the operational structure of small hotels by reducing non-rental costs, which can account for up to 60% of total operating expenses [2][8] - The zero-commission strategy is designed to attract merchants and disrupt existing commission structures in the OTA market [3][9] Market Response - Initial feedback from regional hotel chains has been positive, especially in markets where JD's high-value user base can be leveraged [4][10] Ecosystem Synergy - JD is integrating various services to create a seamless consumer experience, potentially increasing user engagement and repurchase rates [3][11] - The strategy overlaps with existing corporate travel offerings, aiming to enhance overall customer lifetime value [4][12] Challenges Ahead - JD must overcome consumer perception issues and build operational capabilities in areas where traditional OTAs have established advantages [3][13]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the company [2]. Core Views - The company is expected to achieve revenue growth of 5% to 12% year-on-year in FY25, with net profit growth slightly lower than revenue growth, emphasizing a dynamic balance between profit and operational quality [3][12]. - The high-end strategy has shown significant results, with the Guoyuan special A+ products accounting for 64.9% of total revenue in FY24 and a gross profit margin of 82.7%, which is substantially higher than the overall gross profit margin of 74.7% [4][13]. - The company has a clear target for FY25, aiming for revenue of RMB 12.5 billion, net profit of RMB 3.6 billion, and an EPS of RMB 2.9, with a projected target price of RMB 52 based on an 18x PE ratio [5][15]. Financial Performance - The company has maintained over 20% growth in revenue and net profit for three consecutive years from FY21 to FY23, with net profit growth outpacing revenue growth, indicating improved profitability [3][12]. - For FY24, the company is expected to achieve revenue of RMB 11.5 billion and a net profit of RMB 3.4 billion, with a diluted EPS of RMB 2.74 [10]. - The company has a dividend yield of 3.1% for FY24, marking a record high with eight consecutive years of cash dividends [5][15]. Market Strategy - The company is focusing on core segments with tailored strategies for different provinces, aiming for synergistic growth across six regions in FY24 and targeting key markets in Anhui and Shandong for expansion in FY25 [4][14]. - The company has optimized its expense ratios significantly, with reductions in sales, management, and period expense ratios year-on-year [4][13].