[Table_MainInfo] 宏观研究 证券研究报告 宏观专题 2025 年 4 月 8 日 贸易摩擦：关注进口替代 [Table_Summary] 投资要点： 美国"对等关税"：对中国出口有冲击 当前美国对华关税税率为 31.6%，考虑豁免情况，特朗普新一轮关税措 施约提升对华关税税率 32.3 个百分点。 整体来看，影响总出口增速 6.3 个百分点。从对美直接出口看，影响中 国总出口4.7个百分点，考虑到转口贸易地东盟和墨西哥后续均受影响， 或共计影响 6.3 个百分点。 行业角度，农产品、纺织品和汽车链条或受冲击较大。历史经验的关税 弹性视角下，农产品、矿产品、化工品、纺织品和汽车链条出库受单位 关税的影响较大。考虑到部分化工品和矿产品暂时处于豁免，农产品、 纺织品和汽车链条或受冲击较大。 中国反制：把握内需和国产替代机会 中国从美国进口的商品主要集中在能源产品、高科技产品（电气机械、 飞机等）、农产品和汽车领域。对外依赖度低、国产替代空间大的行业 受关税反制的影响或相对较小。 风险提示 贸易与地缘关系发生深层改变导致历史经验有效性不足、数据测算结果 的误差。 请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和法律声明 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for multiple companies in the chemical sector, including Wanhu Chemical, Baofeng Energy, and Zangge Mining, among others [1]. Core Insights - The cumulative amount of shares converted from Limin Convertible Bonds has reached 10.71% of the total issued shares before conversion, indicating strong investor interest in convertible bonds within the basic chemical sector [4]. - The report highlights significant price movements in various convertible bonds, with notable increases for Daon Convertible Bonds (up 5.16%) and Limin Convertible Bonds (up 3.66%) during the week of April 7-11, 2025 [4][24]. - The report also notes the performance of the basic chemical sector's convertible bonds, with some experiencing declines, such as Fuxin Convertible Bonds (down 7.14%) [4][24]. Summary by Sections Convertible Bond Tracking - The report tracks the performance of various convertible bonds, indicating that Daon Convertible Bonds and Limin Convertible Bonds have shown positive growth, while others like Fuxin Convertible Bonds have declined significantly [4][24]. - The report provides detailed statistics on the price changes of convertible bonds, highlighting the volatility and investor sentiment in the market [4][25]. Company Performance - Guizhou Chanhen Chemical reported a 23.01% year-over-year increase in recurring net profit, prompting an upgrade in target price by 19% [3]. - Zangge Mining's recurring net profit decreased by 28.76% year-over-year, but the company is focusing on developing a second growth curve through copper mining [3]. - Guangdong Huate Gas is deepening its market layout and transforming its sales model, maintaining an outperform rating and raising its target price by 11% [3].

[Table_MainInfo] 宏观研究 证券研究报告 宏观专题 2025 年 4 月 5 日 对等关税落地，不确定性仍存 [Table_Summary] 投资要点： "对等关税"并不对等，"豁免清单"也非豁免 美国时间 2025 年 4 月 2 日，美国对全球 185 个国家宣布征收"对等关税" （钢铝、汽车和部分商品暂时豁免）、对汽车和部分零部件加征 25%。 分国家看，"对等关税"部分对中国加征 34%，对东盟国家平均加征 34%， 对欧盟加征 20%。 对中国加征关税超市场预期，主因美国计算其税率的方式并不符合常 理，计算结果倾向于重点针对对美贸易顺差国。 对等关税的"豁免清单"包括铜、药品、半导体、木材、能源品、矿产品 等，均为前期特朗普提及的重点征收的产品，短期内可能看到针对性的 加征措施。 [Table_AuthorInfo] 对美国通胀的影响较高，滞胀风险显著升温 美国新一轮关税措施对全球 185 个国家征收，涉及美国 72%的进口商 品，导致平均关税税率提升 18.2 个百分点。由于美国短期内产能增长 的空间有限、对全球加征导致寻求他国替代的空间也不足，美国的通胀 或将提升 2.6 个百分 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for JD Logistics [2][4][9] Core Views - JD Logistics is expected to achieve stable revenue growth of approximately 10% in Q1 2025, with Non-IFRS net profit also showing stable growth [3][8][9] - The company is entering a stable profitability phase, shifting its valuation method from Price-to-Sales (PS) to Price-to-Earnings (PE) [4][9] Revenue and Profit Forecast - For 2024, JD Logistics recorded total revenue of RMB 182.8 billion, a year-on-year increase of 9.7%, with Non-IFRS net profit reaching RMB 7.9 billion, up 186.8% [3][8] - The revenue forecast for 2025 is set at RMB 203.3 billion, reflecting an 11.2% increase, with a Non-IFRS net profit margin projected at 4.0% [4][9] Operational Insights - The company is focusing on optimizing its network structure and cost management to enhance operational efficiency and profit levels [3][4] - JD Logistics anticipates a significant increase in overseas warehouse space by over 100% by the end of 2025, alongside continued development of domestic bonded warehouses and direct mail warehouses [4] Market Position and Strategy - The report highlights that JD Logistics' express delivery business is expected to grow faster than the industry average, with a focus on improving delivery efficiency and expanding high-margin premium services [4][9] - The integration of operations with Debon is progressing smoothly, contributing positively to profit stability [3][4]

Price Trends - In March 2025, the CPI decreased by 0.1% year-on-year, while the PPI fell by 2.5%, indicating a marginal expansion in the decline[2] - The month-on-month CPI dropped by 0.4%, aligning with seasonal patterns, and the year-on-year decline narrowed[3] - Core CPI showed a marginal recovery, primarily due to the effects of the "trade-in" policy, which supported prices of household appliances and electronics[3] Consumption and Demand - Overall consumption and service demand remain weak, necessitating further policy support[2] - March food prices fell by 1.4% month-on-month, with significant declines in fresh vegetables, pork, and eggs[6] - The average price of live pigs was approximately 14.6 yuan/kg, remaining below 15 yuan/kg for three consecutive months[6] PPI Dynamics - The PPI saw an expanded decline of 0.4% month-on-month and 2.5% year-on-year, influenced by falling international oil prices and weak domestic demand[12] - The upstream mining sector experienced a month-on-month price drop of 2.9%, while raw material prices shifted from a 0.1% increase to a 0.6% decrease[12] - The prices of durable consumer goods fell by 1.0%, indicating a potential "price war" as companies aim to boost sales[12] Policy Implications - Increased urgency for monetary policy adjustments, including RRR cuts and interest rate reductions, is anticipated[2] - Fiscal measures are expected to include accelerated special bond issuance and enhanced consumption subsidies[2] - The ongoing tariff disturbances and rising external risks suggest that further growth-stabilizing policies are likely to be implemented[2] Risks - Uncertainty in real estate trends persists, and the strength of policy measures may be weaker than expected[21]

[Table_MainInfo] 行业研究/公用事业 证券研究报告 行业周报 2025 年 04 月 14 日 [Table_AuthorInfo] 关税变化，电力无忧 [Table_Summary] 投资要点： 关税有利火电公司盈利继续向上。美国对中国加征收 125%的关税，中国 也对美也加征同等关税，目前美中贸易摩擦愈演愈烈，对双方经济都会有 一定影响，对于电力板块而言，需求增速下降，电价或有影响，但若是火 电，电价下行空间或可被煤价的下降抵消，进而业绩持续增长，目前火电 仍是全球增速下行下的最优投资品种之一。关税影响下，部分电力企业提 议增持计划，如中国核电董事长卢铁忠提议以 3 亿至 5 亿元回购股份，用 于减资或股权激励，以维护股东利益、提升公司价值。 新能源弃光较多，兰木达建议疏导到用户。自 2025 年 1 月起，进入现货 市场的典型新能源大省直调光伏发电实际值都偏低，存在明显的弃光现 象，蒙西、山西、山东、甘肃：光伏发电实际值与预测值的比例总体在 70% 上下波动。兰木达判断：1）新能源装机不断增加可能导致弃电继续上升。 2）同时新能源发电增加导致新能源大发时段，电价持续走低，不利于新 能源资 ...

[Table_MainInfo] 仍需警惕通胀上行风险 [Table_Summary] 投资要点： 宏观研究 证券研究报告 宏观专题 美国通胀超预期降温。3 月美国 CPI 同比增速为 2.4%，较 2 月明显回落 0.4 个百分 点，低于市场预期（2.5%）。核心 CPI 同比为 2.8%，较 1 月回落 0.3 个百分点，同 样低于市场预期的 3%。 从环比来看，3 月 CPI 环比为-0.1%，较 2 月明显回落 0.3 个百分点，为 2022 年 7 月以来首次回落至负值区间；核心 CPI 季调环比为 0.1%，较 2 月回落 0.1 个百分点。 此外，3 月核心 CPI 季调环比折年率由 2 月的 2.8%明显回落至 0.7%。 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 20/03 21/03 22/03 23/03 24/03 25/03 食品 核心商品 能源 核心服务 CPI同比 数据来源：Wind，HTI 请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和法律声明 2025 年 3 月美国通胀超预期降温。3 月美国 CPI 同比增速为 2.4%，较 2 月明 显回落 0.4 个百分点，低于市场预期（2. ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the company [2][7]. Core Views - The maternity subsidy policy is expected to strengthen domestic demand for infant formula, leading to a recovery in sales [3][11]. - The company plans to invest 1.2 billion yuan in a nationwide birth subsidy program starting in April 2025, providing monthly subsidies of one can of infant formula for five months to new mothers [3][11]. - The new product Zhuo Rui has significantly outperformed older products, becoming the company's largest single product, with sales increasing over 60% year-on-year [4][12]. Financial Performance - The company achieved a revenue of 20.749 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 6.2%, with a net profit of 3.570 billion yuan, up 5.3% [4][12]. - The gross profit margin for 2024 was 66.3%, an increase of 1.5 percentage points year-on-year, attributed to reduced price promotions and lower raw material costs [5][13]. - The payout ratio for dividends was approximately 76% in 2024, with expectations for continued growth in absolute dividend amounts [6][14]. Earnings Forecast - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are set at 22.11 billion, 23.75 billion, and 25.50 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding net profits of 3.96 billion, 4.34 billion, and 4.65 billion yuan [7][15]. - The expected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025-2027 are 0.44, 0.48, and 0.51 yuan, respectively [7][15]. - The target price for the stock is set at HK$7.00, based on a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 15 for 2025 [2][15].

研究报告 Research Report 14 Apr 2025 颐海国际 YIHAI INTERNATIONAL HOLDING (1579 HK) 率先布局海外蓄力，第三方客户提振业绩 Take the lead in laying out overseas, and third party boost performance [Table_yemei 观点聚焦 1] Investment Focus [Table_Info] 维持优于大市 Maintain OUTPERFORM 评级 优于大市 OUTPERFORM 现价 HK$13.42 目标价 HK$16.55 HTI ESG 1.2-3.0-3.0 E-S-G: 0-5, (Please refer to the Appendix for ESG comments) 市值 HK$13.91bn / US$1.79bn 日交易额 (3 个月均值) US$10.32mn 发行股票数目 1,037mn 自由流通股 (%) 56% 1 年股价最高最低值 HK$18.28-HK$10.62 注：现价 HK$13.42 为 2025 年 04 月 11 日收盘 ...

研究报告 Research Report 14 Apr 2025 华特气体 Guangdong Huate Gas (688268 CH) 深化国内外市场布局，推进销售模式转型 Deepening the Layout of Domestic and International Markets, Promoting the Transformation of Sales Model [Table_yemei 观点聚焦 1] Investment Focus [Table_Info] 维持优于大市 Maintain OUTPERFORM 评级 优于大市 OUTPERFORM 现价 Rmb54.17 目标价 Rmb64.60 HTI ESG 5.0-5.0-5.0 E-S-G: 0-5, (Please refer to the Appendix for ESG comments) 市值 Rmb6.52bn / US$0.89bn 日交易额 (3 个月均值) US$16.08mn 发行股票数目 120.39mn 自由流通股 (%) 39% 1 年股价最高最低值 Rmb64.39-Rmb39.44 注：现价 Rmb ...