债 券 研 大势未改，微澜有别 [Table_Authors] 刘玉(分析师) 2025 年 REITs 二季度季报点评 本报告导读： 整体来看，二季度 REIT 经营表现基本延续预期趋势，但本轮 REIT 行情回调正值 投资者风险偏好转换，大类资产行情轮动期，基本面定价权重较小。 投资要点： | | | | | 021-38038263 | | --- | --- | | | liuyu6@gtht.com | | 登记编号 | S0880523050002 | | | 汤志宇(研究助理) | | | 021-38031036 | | | tangzhiyu@gtht.com | | 登记编号 | S0880123070149 | [Table_Report] 相关报告 势如破竹，固收加规模强势增长 2025.07.29 绿色债券：现状、绿色溢价与挖掘价值 2025.07.29 债市波动下，债券 ETF 的表现和套利机会 2025.07.28 "反内卷"：价格信号对债市影响几何 2025.07.27 从技术指标看，债市止跌有哪些先行指示 2025.07.26 证 券 研 究 报 告 请务必阅读正文之后的免责 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the real estate industry [4][6]. Core Insights - The focus of urban renewal should be on the transformation of urban villages and the renovation of dilapidated housing. It is anticipated that urban village renovation projects will continue to increase in volume by 2025, with attention on the pace of PSL (Policy-based Financial Instruments) issuance in the second half of the year [2][3]. - The report suggests that the fourth quarter of this year will face a high base period, but there is an expectation of policy strengthening in the third quarter to alleviate fundamental pressures and aim for stabilization. If sales do not stabilize in the fourth quarter, there may be sales pressure on blue-chip developers in the first half of 2025 [5][6]. - The report highlights the importance of high-quality urban renewal as a key theme in this year's important meetings, emphasizing the need for effective implementation of urban renewal policies [5][10]. Summary by Sections Investment Recommendations - The report recommends maintaining an "Overweight" rating, with specific stock picks including: 1. Development: Vanke A, Poly Developments, China Merchants Shekou, and JinDi Group in A-shares; China Overseas Development in H-shares 2. Commercial and Residential: China Resources Land, Longfor Group, and New Town Holdings 3. Property Management: Wanwu Cloud, China Resources Vientiane Life, China Overseas Property, Poly Property, and New Dazheng 4. Cultural Tourism: Overseas Chinese Town A [5][6]. Key Company Earnings Forecasts - The report provides earnings per share (EPS) forecasts for key companies, with all listed companies receiving an "Overweight" rating. For example: - Vanke A: EPS forecast for 2024A is -4.17 CNY - Poly Developments: EPS forecast for 2024A is 0.42 CNY - China Overseas Development: EPS forecast for 2024A is 1.43 CNY [6].

Regulatory Framework - The Hong Kong Monetary Authority (HKMA) has released regulatory documents for stablecoin issuance, detailing applicant qualifications, application processes, reserve asset requirements, anti-money laundering measures, and a transition period for existing issuers[2][7]. - The regulatory documents supplement the "Stablecoin Ordinance" effective from August 1, 2025, aiming to refine the licensing process and subsequent supervision of stablecoin issuers[7]. Application Requirements - Applicants must be registered corporations in Hong Kong with a minimum paid-up capital of HKD 25 million (approximately USD 3.2 million) or equivalent in freely convertible currency[7][8]. - The application process includes consultations with the HKMA and relevant regulatory bodies, submission of applications, and processing of applications[7]. Reserve Asset Guidelines - Licensed issuers must ensure that reserve assets fully back the stablecoins, which can include cash, bank deposits with a maturity of no more than 3 months, and high-liquidity bonds with a maturity of no more than 1 year[4][7]. - If using currencies other than the reference currency for stablecoins, prior written approval from the HKMA is required[4]. Anti-Money Laundering Measures - Issuers are required to continuously monitor transactions involving customer wallets, including both custodial and non-custodial wallets, to prevent money laundering and terrorist financing risks[4][7]. Transition Period for Existing Issuers - Existing issuers wishing to apply for a license must do so by October 31, 2025, at the latest[4][7]. Market Implications - The issuance of stablecoin licenses is expected to benefit companies with relevant applications, particularly in cross-border payments[8]. - The HKMA anticipates that only a limited number of licenses will be granted initially, prioritizing companies with applicable use cases[8]. Investment Recommendations - Companies with a strong presence in payment solutions, such as LianLian Digital, Lakala, and Yika, are recommended for investment due to their potential benefits from stablecoin licensing[8][9]. - The report highlights the importance of companies accelerating their engagement in real-world asset (RWA) scenarios, such as Linklogis and Jiufang Zhitu Holdings[8]. Risks - Potential risks include slower-than-expected regulatory progress and increased competition within the stablecoin industry[8].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" [5][19]. Core Insights - The company, WuXi AppTec, has shown strong performance in the first half of 2025, with a significant increase in orders on hand by 37%, leading to an upward revision of its full-year performance guidance [2][11]. - The revenue for the first half of 2025 reached RMB 20.8 billion, representing a year-on-year growth of 20.6%, with the revenue from continuing operations growing by 24.2% [11]. - The adjusted net profit margin improved to 30.4%, an increase of 5 percentage points year-on-year [11]. - The TIDES business segment has experienced rapid growth, with revenue in the first half of 2025 increasing by 141.6% year-on-year [11]. - The company has raised its full-year revenue guidance from RMB 415-430 billion to RMB 425-435 billion, expecting a return to double-digit growth in continuing operations [11]. Financial Summary - The projected total revenue for 2025 is RMB 43.547 billion, with a growth rate of 11.0% [3][12]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be RMB 14.684 billion in 2025, reflecting a substantial growth of 55.4% [3][12]. - Earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is projected at RMB 5.11 [3][12]. - The company maintains a net asset return rate of 21.3% for 2025 [3][12]. - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is estimated to be 19.30 for 2025 [3][12]. Market Data - The company's market capitalization is approximately RMB 283.459 billion [6]. - The stock price has ranged between RMB 37.29 and RMB 98.69 over the past 52 weeks [6]. - The company has a net asset value per share of RMB 20.86, with a price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 4.7 [7].

Group 1 - The report indicates that the stock side employs a small-cap value portfolio combined with a non-timing stock-bond monthly rebalancing strategy of 10/90 and 20/80, with cumulative returns of 4.97% and 9.28% respectively by 2025 [1][4] - As of July 25, 2025, the total market size of fixed income + funds reached 1,775.714 billion, with 1,173 products, and 136 of them reached historical net value highs last week [2][9] - The performance of various fund types showed divergence, with median returns for mixed bond type funds being -0.15% for level one, 0.09% for level two, and 0.19% for biased bond mixed funds [2][14] Group 2 - The macro environment forecast for Q3 2025 suggests an inflationary trend, with the CSI 300 index rising by 4.85% since July, while the China Government Bond Index fell by 0.43% [3] - Recommended industry ETFs for July 2025 include those focused on securities companies, semiconductors, non-ferrous metals, and major consumer sectors, with a weekly return of 4.72% and a cumulative return of 6.97% for the month [3][4] - The absolute return strategy performance showed that the macro-timing driven stock-bond 20/80 rebalancing strategy yielded a return of 0.20% last week, while the stock-bond risk parity strategy had a return of -0.20% [4][16] Group 3 - The small-cap value style within the stock-bond 20/80 combination performed notably well, achieving a year-to-date return of 9.28%, while other strategies like PB earnings and high dividend stocks yielded 4.01% and 2.65% respectively [4][16] - The report highlights that 136 fixed income + products reached historical net value highs, with a breakdown of 30 level one mixed bond funds, 41 level two mixed bond funds, and 35 biased bond mixed funds [18][20] - The report also provides insights into the performance of conservative, balanced, and aggressive funds, with median returns of -0.09%, 0.09%, and 0.29% respectively [14][18]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry or specific companies [1][2]. Core Insights - The establishment of the first 100-ton KrF photoresist resin production line in China is a significant milestone, expected to generate over 100 million yuan in revenue upon reaching full capacity [1]. - The first domestic industrialization unit for amino alcohol has been successfully launched, marking a breakthrough in the production of high-performance additives, with market prices ranging from 60 to 150 yuan per kilogram [1]. - The report highlights the challenges in the domestic semiconductor materials market, particularly the low localization rates for various types of photoresists, indicating a substantial opportunity for growth [2]. Summary by Sections Industry Development Dynamics - The first 100-ton KrF photoresist resin production line has been completed by Bayi Shikong, with plans to expand capacity to 200-300 tons annually over the next five years, aiming for a revenue scale in the tens of millions by 2025 [1]. - Xuyang Group has launched the first domestic amino alcohol production unit, capable of producing 5,000 tons per year, filling a gap in the domestic market and becoming the second company globally to industrialize this product [1]. Investment and Financing Dynamics - Hengkun New Materials' IPO has been postponed, with plans to raise approximately 1.007 billion yuan for projects related to semiconductor precursor materials and advanced materials [2]. - The report notes that Hengkun New Materials is a key player in the integrated circuit materials sector, with significant market share in domestic sales of SOC and BARC products [2].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the steel industry [5]. Core Viewpoints - Demand is expected to gradually bottom out, while supply-side adjustments are beginning to show, indicating that the steel industry is slowly emerging from its low point [3]. - The report anticipates that if supply policies are implemented, the speed of supply contraction will accelerate, leading to a quicker recovery in the industry [3]. - The profitability of steel companies has improved, with the average gross profit per ton of rebar rising to 330.1 CNY/ton, an increase of 131.5 CNY/ton [36]. Summary by Sections Steel Market Overview - Last week, the apparent consumption of five major steel products was 8.6813 million tons, a decrease of 1.98 million tons week-on-week [24]. - The total inventory of steel was 13.365 million tons, down 1.16 million tons week-on-week, maintaining the lowest level for the same period in recent years [5]. - The operating rate of blast furnaces among 247 steel mills was 83.46%, unchanged from the previous week [32]. Raw Materials - The spot price of iron ore increased by 4 CNY/ton to 779 CNY/ton, a rise of 0.52% [48]. - The total inventory of iron ore at ports rose to 137.9038 million tons, a slight increase of 0.04% [49]. - The average available days of imported iron ore for 64 domestic steel companies increased to 21 days, up by 1 day from the previous week [49]. Profitability and Production - The average gross profit for hot-rolled coils rose to 244.1 CNY/ton, an increase of 113.5 CNY/ton [36]. - The profitability rate of 247 steel companies was 63.64%, up 3.47% from the previous week [32]. - The total steel production last week was 8.6697 million tons, a decrease of 1.22 million tons week-on-week [33]. Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies with leading technology and product structures, such as Baosteel and Hualing Steel, as well as low-cost firms like Fangda Special Steel and New Steel [5].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" [6][10]. Core Views - The report highlights that the company, 德昌电机控股, has formed a joint venture with 上海机电 to enter the humanoid robot joint market, leveraging decades of collaboration to enhance efficiency in this sector [2][10]. - The company is expected to face revenue pressure in the first quarter of the 2025-2026 fiscal year, with a reported revenue decline of 2% year-on-year to $915 million [10]. Financial Summary - Total revenue projections are as follows: - 2025A: $3,815 million - 2026E: $3,751 million - 2027E: $4,096 million - 2028E: $4,475 million - The revenue growth rates are projected at 5%, -4%, 3%, 9%, and 9% respectively [4]. - Gross profit and net profit forecasts are: - Gross profit for 2025A: $851 million, with a projected increase to $1,029 million by 2028E - Net profit for 2025A: $263 million, expected to grow to $355 million by 2028E, reflecting growth rates of 15%, 7%, 15%, and 10% respectively [4][10]. - The company’s PE ratio is projected to be 5.57 for 2025A, increasing to 8.44 by 2028E, while the PB ratio is expected to rise from 0.51 to 0.83 over the same period [4]. Market Data - The current stock price is HKD 25.40, with a 52-week price range of HKD 10.00 to HKD 26.00 [6][7]. - The current market capitalization is approximately HKD 23,734 million [7]. Investment Recommendation - The report maintains a positive outlook on the long-term development prospects of 德昌电机控股 in the humanoid robot components manufacturing sector, with a target price set at HKD 30.61 based on a 13x PE for the fiscal year 2025 [10].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In Q2 2025, the scale of fixed - income plus funds continued to grow, and the inflow of funds was expected to continue due to the bond market under - allocation and the upward movement of equities. Convertible bond funds and fixed - income plus funds still had strong support [4][6]. - Brokers significantly increased their positions in convertible bonds, while public funds and insurance funds actively reduced their positions on the whole. The behavior of brokers was different from that of public funds and insurance funds, with brokers more likely to increase positions in a bull market and the latter reducing positions when the convertible bond valuation was high [10][12]. - Public funds continued to reduce their positions in bank convertible bonds and sought bottom - position substitutes. Other convertible bonds in the financial sector and those in the public utilities sector received certain increases in positions [19]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Growth of Fixed - Income Plus Fund Shares with Market Support - In Q2 2025, fixed - income plus funds had a net subscription of 56.41 billion shares. Among them, first - tier bond funds had a net subscription of 52.548 billion shares, second - tier bond funds had a net subscription of 7.774 billion shares, and partial - debt hybrid funds had a net redemption of 3.68 billion shares, with the net redemption volume further decreasing compared to Q1 2025. Convertible bond funds had a net redemption of 2.164 billion shares, slightly higher than that in Q1 2025 but with relatively low net redemption pressure compared to Q4 2024 [4][6]. - In Q2 2025, the positions of convertible bond funds and fixed - income plus funds in equity - related assets decreased slightly. The reasons might include the tariff event in early April, profit - taking in May and June, and the reduction in the scope of investable targets in the convertible bond market [8]. 3.2. Public Funds and Insurance Funds Reduce Positions Marginally, while Brokers Increase Positions in Convertible Bonds - Brokers significantly increased their positions in convertible bonds in February, March, May, and June 2025, while public funds and insurance funds actively reduced their positions when the convertible bond valuation was high. With the convertible bond market hitting a new high and the equity market at a relatively high level, there was a need to be cautious about possible valuation drops [10][12]. - From January to June 2025, the positions of funds, insurance, and social security in convertible bonds decreased, while those of brokers' self - operation and asset management increased. The positions of convertible bond ETFs had net outflows in April and May and recovered significantly after late June [12][13][15]. 3.3. Analysis of Public Fund Holdings - In terms of industry distribution, public funds continued to reduce their positions in bank convertible bonds in Q2 2025 due to the forced redemption of Nanyin Convertible Bond, Hangyin Convertible Bond, Qilu Convertible Bond, and the approaching maturity of Pufa Convertible Bond. Other convertible bonds in the financial sector and those in the public utilities sector received certain increases in positions [19]. - Public funds increased their positions in some high - elasticity varieties such as those in the electronics, computer, communication, pharmaceutical, and food and beverage sectors, which might benefit from the structural market of technology, medicine, and consumption sectors. The positions in convertible bonds of the basic chemical and building materials industries also increased [21]. - In addition to financial bottom - position convertible bonds such as bank convertible bonds, public funds increased their positions in high - prosperity and high - elasticity targets such as Outong Convertible Bond, Wentai Convertible Bond, Shenma Convertible Bond, and Hengbang Convertible Bond [26].

- The report aims to track large purchases and net active purchases using transaction detail data[1] - The indicators used are the proportion of large order transaction amounts and the proportion of net active purchase amounts[7] - The proportion of large order transaction amounts reflects the buying behavior of large funds[7] - The proportion of net active purchase amounts reflects the active buying behavior of investors[7] - The top 5 stocks with the highest average proportion of large order transaction amounts over the past 5 days are: Sobute, China Railway Industry, Tibet Tianlu, Poly United, and China Power Construction[4][9] - The top 5 stocks with the highest average proportion of net active purchase amounts over the past 5 days are: Weixing Co., HNA Holdings, Kaili Medical, Liaogang Co., and Hengyi Petrochemical[4][10] - The top 5 industries with the highest average proportion of large order transaction amounts over the past 5 days are: Banking, Real Estate, Petroleum and Petrochemical, Transportation, and Coal[4] - The top 5 industries with the highest average proportion of net active purchase amounts over the past 5 days are: Media, Textile and Apparel, Computers, Electronics, and Light Manufacturing[4] - The top 5 ETFs with the highest average proportion of large order transaction amounts over the past 5 days are: China Agricultural Theme ETF, E Fund CSI 300 Medical and Health ETF, Huabao CSI Medical ETF, Bosera SSE STAR 100 ETF, and Guotai CSI Livestock Breeding ETF[4][15] - The top 5 ETFs with the highest average proportion of net active purchase amounts over the past 5 days are: Penghua CSI Subdivision Chemical Industry Theme ETF, GF SSE STAR 50 ETF, Harvest CSI Rare Metals Theme ETF, E Fund Guozheng Robotics Industry ETF, and Harvest CSI Software Services ETF[4][16]