投资要点： | [Table_Authors] | 王一凡(分析师) | | --- | --- | | | 021-38031722 | | | wangyifan4@gtht.com | | 登记编号 | S0880524120001 | | | 唐元懋(分析师) | | | 0755-23976753 | | | tangyuanmao@gtht.com | | 登记编号 | S0880524040002 | 债券研究 /[Table_Date] 2026.01.22 欧洲抛售美债对美债有何影响 本报告导读： 美日债市联动暴跌，政治摩擦与财政叙事引爆期限溢价跳升，超长久期资产遭集中 抛售，风险外溢全球。 [Table_Report] 相关报告 财政金融促内需新政对债市有何影响 2026.01.21 躁动行情换挡，聚焦业绩成色 2026.01.20 基于银行微观数据，26 年存款重定价节奏怎么 看？ 2025.12.29 震荡巩固，蓄力反弹 2025.12.22 把握跨年行情布局时机 2025.12.15 证 券 研 究 报 告 事 件 点 评 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 债 券 研 究 [Tabl ...

Group 1: Strategy Observation - The report highlights the strengthening of AI hardware demand and the continuation of technology manufacturing overseas, with the semiconductor industry experiencing further improvement due to increased AI penetration and export growth in power equipment [4] - Prices of lithium carbonate have surged significantly due to supply constraints and improved downstream demand expectations, while pork prices have also seen improvements supported by consumption policies [4] - Traditional real estate and durable goods sectors continue to face pressure, with a notable decline in retail sales of passenger vehicles [5] Group 2: Industry Tracking - Consumer Electronics - Domestic companies are making breakthroughs in powder metallurgy processes, particularly in nuclear fusion materials, which are expected to benefit from a surge in downstream demand [8] - Tian Gong International, a leader in powder metallurgy, has set ambitious performance targets, indicating strong growth confidence [8] - The company is focusing on high-boron steel and advanced low-activation steel for nuclear fusion applications, leveraging its powder metallurgy technology for cost advantages [9] Group 3: Industry Research - Cement Manufacturing - Uganda is identified as a key market for cement exports, with a rapidly growing economy and increasing cement demand driven by urbanization [12] - The country has a favorable supply structure with only three clinker production lines, leading to a competitive market landscape [13] - Despite high cement prices, profitability remains challenging due to high production costs and logistical issues [14] Group 4: Industry Research - Consumer Discretionary - The smart glasses industry is entering a growth phase, with companies like Mingyue Lens expected to benefit from collaborations with leading brands [16] - The introduction of new smart glasses models, such as Ray-Ban Meta, is anticipated to enhance user experience and expand market applications [17] - The supply chain for AI glasses is broadening, with various players from different sectors entering the market, indicating a significant expansion of the industry [18] Group 5: Company Coverage - BAIC Blue Valley - The company is positioned as a pioneer in China's new energy vehicle sector, with a dual-brand strategy driving revenue growth [21] - Projected revenues for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are estimated at 290 billion, 582 billion, and 889 billion CNY respectively, with a focus on autonomous driving technology [21][22] - The company has seen a significant increase in sales volume, with expectations for continued growth through new model launches [23] Group 6: Company Tracking - Hikvision - The company is expected to achieve a net profit of 141.88 billion CNY in 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 18.46% [40] - Hikvision's strategic shift towards high-quality, sustainable profit growth has led to improved operational efficiency and profitability [41] - The integration of AI into its product offerings is anticipated to drive long-term growth [42] Group 7: Company Tracking - Anfu Technology - The company is focusing on expanding its market presence in the semiconductor sector while maintaining strong performance in its core battery business [45] - Projected earnings per share for 2025 to 2027 are expected to show significant growth, driven by strategic acquisitions and market expansion [45] - The company is leveraging its established brand to enhance its competitive position in the charging market [46] Group 8: Overseas Report - Netflix - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 51.1 billion, 57.6 billion, and 64.6 billion USD from 2026 to 2028, with a focus on expanding its content offerings [48] - Netflix's advertising revenue is expected to double, contributing significantly to its overall financial performance [51] - The acquisition of Warner Bros. is anticipated to enhance content diversity and production capabilities [51]

股票研究 /[Table_Date] 2026.01.22 核聚变材料空间广阔，国内企业积极突破 [Table_Industry] 消费电子 [Table_Invest] 评级： 增持 | [姓名table_Authors] | 电话 | 邮箱 | 登记编号 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 舒迪(分析师) | 021-38676666 | shudi@gtht.com | S0880521070002 | | 文紫妍(分析师) | 021-38038321 | wenziyan@gtht.com | S0880523070001 | 本报告导读： 国内企业深耕粉末冶金工艺，并突破核聚变材料卡脖子环节，有望受益于下游需求 爆发。 投资要点： 风险提示。中美贸易摩擦的不确定性；原材料价格剧烈波动 [Table_Report] 相关报告 | 消费电子《钛合金持续渗透，国内企业积极布 | | --- | | 局》2026.01.08 | | 消费电子《豆包 AI 助手问世，端侧硬件有望迎 | | 来爆发》2025.12.03 | | 消费电子《大厂加速推进 AI 手机，硬件创新持 | | ...

Group 1: Downstream Consumption - The price of live pigs has increased by 2.4% week-on-week, driven by improved winter demand, with the current price at 13.03 yuan/kg as of January 18 [8] - The retail sales of passenger cars have significantly declined, with a year-on-year drop of 32% for the period from January 1 to January 11, 2026, primarily due to high base effects from early 2025 and the phasing out of tax exemptions for new energy vehicles [20] - The real estate market continues to face pressure, with a year-on-year decrease of 30.5% in transaction area for commercial housing across 30 major cities as of January 18 [19] Group 2: Technology & Manufacturing - The AI hardware sector remains robust, with a year-on-year increase of 38.5% in PCB exports in December 2025, and significant price increases in DRAM memory, with DDR4 and DDR5 prices rising by 8.3% and 10.1% respectively [23][24] - The construction materials sector shows slight improvements, with rebar and hot-rolled coil prices increasing by 1.2% and 1.5% week-on-week as of January 16, 2026 [28] - The automotive manufacturing sector is experiencing a rebound in production rates, with a 7.6% increase in half-steel tire production and a 4.9% increase in full-steel tire production as of January 15 [40] Group 3: Upstream Resources - Coal prices have decreased by 0.6% week-on-week, attributed to relatively high temperatures and a slower increase in daily consumption by power plants, with the current price at 557 yuan/ton as of January 16 [49] - Industrial metal prices have slightly adjusted, with copper and aluminum prices down by 0.6% and 1.7% respectively, reflecting ongoing supply disruptions and high prices impacting downstream demand [53] Group 4: Logistics and Passenger Flow - Passenger transport demand is showing marginal growth, with metro passenger volume in major cities increasing by 2.2% week-on-week and 2.8% year-on-year as of January 18 [60] - International flight operations have seen a week-on-week increase of 4.8%, recovering to 85.6% of the levels seen in 2019, while domestic flights have decreased by 8.7% year-on-year [62]

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a "Buy" rating and a target price of 11.49 CNY [5][11]. Core Views - The company is positioned as a pioneer in China's new energy vehicle industry, with dual-brand synergy driving positive transformation. The leading layout in autonomous driving and a diversified product matrix are expected to support revenue growth [2][19]. - The company anticipates significant revenue growth, with projected revenues of 29 billion CNY in 2025, 58 billion CNY in 2026, and 89 billion CNY in 2027, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 100%, 101%, and 53% respectively [13][19]. - The dual-brand strategy, focusing on the premium and luxury segments, is expected to enhance revenue and performance recovery, with the company aiming for over 200,000 vehicle sales in 2025, a year-on-year increase of 84.06% [11][19]. Financial Summary - Total revenue is projected to reach 14,319 million CNY in 2023, with a significant increase to 88,885 million CNY by 2027, representing a compound annual growth rate of 52.6% [4][12]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to improve from a loss of 5,400 million CNY in 2023 to a profit of 1,267 million CNY by 2027 [4][12]. - The gross margin is anticipated to turn positive in the third quarter of 2025, with a projected gross profit of 1 billion CNY in 2025 and 107 billion CNY in 2027 [11][19]. Business Segment Forecast - Vehicle sales are expected to generate revenues of 272.45 billion CNY in 2025, 564.67 billion CNY in 2026, and 870.48 billion CNY in 2027, with corresponding gross profits turning from a loss to a profit by 2026 [13][16]. - The vehicle operation revenue is projected to grow steadily, reaching 2.36 billion CNY in 2025, with consistent growth of 10% year-on-year [14]. - Material sales and leasing revenues are expected to remain stable, with minor growth anticipated in leasing income [14][15]. Valuation - The company is valued using a price-to-sales (P/S) ratio, with a target P/S of 1.1 times for 2026, leading to a target price of 11.49 CNY [19][20].

股 票 研 究 双品牌驱动营收增长，积极布局自动驾驶 北汽蓝谷(600733) 北汽蓝谷首次覆盖 | [姓名table_Authors] | 电话 | 邮箱 | 登记编号 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 刘一鸣(分析师) | 021-23154145 | liuyiming@gtht.com | S0880525040050 | | 张觉尹(分析师) | 021-23185705 | zhangjueyin@gtht.com | S0880525040057 | | 张予名(研究助理) | 021-23154145 | zhangyuming@gtht.com | S0880125042241 | 本报告导读： 首次覆盖给予"增持"评级。享界、极狐双品牌驱动营收增长。新车型蓄势待发， 多元化产品矩阵持续扩容。公司积极布局自动驾驶，L2 至 L4 全面覆盖。 投资要点： | [Table_Finance] 财务摘要(百万元) | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | ...

26 全年指引平稳，全力推进收购 WBD 奈飞(NFLX.O) ——奈飞 FY25Q4 业绩点评 [Table_Industry] 海外信息科技 | [姓名table_Authors] | 电话 | 邮箱 | 登记编号 | [Table_Invest] 评级： | 增持 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 秦和平(分析师) | 0755-23976666 | qinheping@gtht.com | S0880523110003 | | | | 高翩然(分析师) | 0755-80305701 | gaopianran@gtht.com | S0880525040066 | | | | | | | | [当前价格 Table_CurPrice] (美元)： | 87.05 | 本报告导读： 26 全年内容摊销成本指引同比+10%，强化广告业务，提升内容丰富度与质量。 投资要点： -2% 10% 21% 32% 43% 54% 2025/1 2025/5 2025/9 2026/1 奈飞 恒生指数 [Table_Report] 相关报告 | 利润率短期承压，多元动 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a rating of "Accumulate" to the company with a target price of 107.06 CNY [5][11]. Core Insights - The company plans to acquire 100% equity of Ruineng Semiconductor through a combination of issuing shares and cash payment, which constitutes a related party transaction. The target company is a leader in power semiconductors, which will enhance the company's supply chain and create significant synergies [2][11]. - The expected net profits for the company from 2025 to 2027 are projected to be 1.716 billion CNY, 1.939 billion CNY, and 2.296 billion CNY respectively, with corresponding EPS of 2.02 CNY, 2.28 CNY, and 2.70 CNY [11]. - The acquisition is expected to complete the company's power semiconductor industry chain, accelerate the localization of high-end components, and cultivate new profit growth points, thereby enhancing its overall competitiveness and profitability [11]. Financial Summary - Total revenue is projected to be 7,576 million CNY in 2023, decreasing to 5,511 million CNY in 2024, and then increasing to 10,731 million CNY by 2027, reflecting a growth rate of 14.2% [4][12]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to decline from 2,532 million CNY in 2023 to 1,179 million CNY in 2024, before recovering to 2,296 million CNY in 2027 [4][12]. - The company's return on equity (ROE) is projected to decrease from 21.7% in 2023 to 9.5% in 2024, then gradually recover to 13.3% by 2027 [4][12]. Market Data - The current stock price is 86.36 CNY, with a 52-week price range of 59.12 CNY to 92.78 CNY [6]. - The total market capitalization is 73,374 million CNY, with a total share count of 850 million shares [6]. - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is projected to be 29.08 in 2023, increasing to 62.45 in 2024, and then decreasing to 32.08 by 2027 [4][12].

26 全年内容摊销成本指引同比+10%，强化广告业务，提升内容丰富度与质量。 投资要点： | 财务摘要(百万美元) | 2024 | 2025 | 2026E | 2027E | 2028E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入 | 39001 | 45183 | 51137 | 57626 | 64556 | | (+/-)% | 15.6% | 15.9% | 13.2% | 12.7% | 12.0% | | 毛利润 | 17963 | 21908 | 25705 | 29359 | 34212 | | 净利润 | 8712 | 10981 | 13456 | 15915 | 19451 | | (+/-)% | 61.1% | 26.1% | 22.5% | 18.3% | 22.2% | | 净利率 | 22.3% | 24.3% | 26.3% | 27.6% | 30.1% | | PE | 43.7 | 33.7 | 27.5 | 23.2 | 19.0 | | 资料来源：Wind，国泰海通证券研究 | | | | | | 交易数据 [ ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The signal significance of the new fiscal and financial policies to boost domestic demand in bridging the gap between macro and micro economic situations is greater than the short - term effects [1][11] - In the first quarter, the bond market focuses more on expectations than reality in fundamental trading. The "five - pronged" fiscal policies confirm the idea of a steady and intensified policy, reducing the probability of a significant increase in growth policies, especially fiscal policies, in the first year of the "15th Five - Year Plan". The next observation point for 2026's growth policy is the National People's Congress in early March [12] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 New Fiscal and Financial Policies to Boost Domestic Demand - On January 20, the Ministry of Finance and other departments issued a package of fiscal and financial policies to boost domestic demand, including two new and three optimized policies. The new policies for private investment are the private investment special guarantee plan and the small - and - medium - sized enterprise loan discount policy. The optimized policies are the personal consumption loan, service industry business entity loan, and equipment renewal loan fiscal discount policies [6][7] - The policy ideas of fiscal discount and special guarantee plans are "precision drip irrigation" for broad credit. Fiscal discount policies have been expanding since June 2024, and the special guarantee plan's scope has been extended from the science and innovation field in July 2024 to the entire private investment field [8] 3.2 Policy Effects - The signal significance of these policies in bridging the gap between macro and micro economic situations is greater than the short - term effects. The focus is on micro - level support, but the overall scale of fiscal discount policies is limited. In 2025, the fiscal discount fund scale was about tens of billions, with a 165 - billion - yuan discount scale in the first three quarters of 2025 for science and technology innovation and technological transformation loans [11] 3.3 Impact on the Bond Market - In the first quarter, the bond market pays more attention to expectations than reality due to seasonal disturbances. The new policies confirm the steady and intensified policy idea and lower the probability of a significant increase in growth policies, ending the initial pricing of growth policy expectations in 2026. The next key observation point is the National People's Congress in early March [12]