股票研究 /[Table_Date] 2026.01.23 国有大行投放力度较大，不良压力或企稳 [Table_Industry] 商业银行 银行消费贷专题报告 1）银行消费贷，占比约 27%（25Q2 末约 5.80 万亿），上市国有大 行、股份行、城农商行消费贷分别为 2.7 万亿、1.8 万亿、1.2 万亿 （在国有大行、股份行、城农商行全部贷款的比重分别为 2.6%、 5.1%、9.7%），分别同比增长 26.0%、2.4%、12.1%。 2）持牌消金公司合计 31 家，规模占比约 7%，2024 年末消费金融 公司资产规模达到 1.38 万亿元，同比增长 14.6%。根据 18 家消金 公司数据（资产规模合计 1.2 万亿元），25Q2 末消金公司资产规模 同比增长 14.6%，仍维持较快增速。 其余为信用卡（占比约 41%）及汽车金融公司、小额贷款公司、互 联网消费金融平台等（合计占比约 25%）。 价：设置底线利率 3%，网贷利率逐步压降。 1）信用消费贷：2023 年以来消费贷价格战趋于白热化，个别银行 产品利率低至 2.4%。据证券时报，2025 年 4 月起信用消费贷产品年 化利率或上调至 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Increase" rating for the industry, indicating a potential growth exceeding 15% relative to the CSI 300 index [10]. Core Insights - The establishment of new duty-free shops at entry ports is expected to synergize with city duty-free stores, collectively expanding the domestic duty-free market [2][4]. - The recent notification from multiple government departments allows for the establishment of new duty-free shops at 41 entry ports, significantly increasing the convenience for inbound travelers to shop duty-free [4]. - The report recommends specific stocks, including China Duty Free Group and Wangfujing, while also mentioning Zhuhai Duty Free Group as a related stock [4]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The report highlights the collaboration between newly established entry port duty-free shops and existing city duty-free stores to enhance the overall market size [2]. Investment Highlights - The report notes that the new duty-free shops will allow travelers to purchase a certain amount of duty-free goods (up to 15,000 yuan) upon entry, thus facilitating increased consumer spending [4]. - The policy changes effective from November 1, 2025, will expand the product categories available in duty-free shops, including mobile phones, drones, sports goods, health foods, over-the-counter drugs, and pet foods [4]. Financial Projections - The report provides profit forecasts and valuations for key stocks, indicating that China Duty Free Group is expected to achieve a net profit of 42.67 billion yuan in 2024, with a projected PE ratio of 46 [5]. - Wangfujing is projected to have a net profit of 2.69 billion yuan in 2024, with a PE ratio of 65 [5].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [1][6]. Core Insights - The report highlights a significant increase in same-store sales, with a year-on-year growth of 21.4% in mainland China for FY26Q3, driven by a 53.4% increase in priced jewelry sales [10]. - The company is experiencing a shift towards higher-margin priced products, with the proportion of priced jewelry sales in mainland China rising to 40.1%, an increase of 10.7 percentage points year-on-year [10]. - Online sales are showing strong growth, with a year-on-year increase of 25.3% in FY26Q3, while the total number of physical stores is decreasing [10]. Financial Summary - Total revenue is projected to grow from HKD 89,656 million in FY2025 to HKD 103,903 million in FY2028, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 5.4% [4]. - Gross profit is expected to increase from HKD 26,455 million in FY2025 to HKD 31,691 million in FY2028, with a gross margin of around 30.5% by FY2028 [4]. - Net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to rise significantly from HKD 5,916 million in FY2025 to HKD 11,153 million in FY2028, indicating a strong recovery and growth trajectory [4]. Market Data - The current stock price is HKD 14.12, with a market capitalization of HKD 139,299 million [1][7]. - The stock has traded within a range of HKD 6.76 to HKD 16.63 over the past 52 weeks [7]. Forecast and Valuation - The report maintains a target price of HKD 19.8 for FY2026, based on a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 22 times [10]. - The forecasted earnings per share (EPS) for FY2026 is expected to be HKD 1.02, with a P/E ratio of 13.44 for FY2026 [11].

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive investment rating for the industry, suggesting an "Overweight" position relative to the CSI 300 index, with expected returns exceeding 15% [36]. Core Insights - The report highlights that gold has once again led the gains among major asset classes, with global asset allocation models recording positive returns. The domestic asset BL models showed returns of 0.28% and 0.26%, while global models recorded returns of 0.14% and 0.12% for the week [1][2][4]. Summary by Sections 1. Major Asset Performance Tracking - For the week of January 12 to January 16, 2026, major asset performances were as follows: SHFE gold increased by 2.57%, Hang Seng Index by 2.23%, and CSI 1000 by 1.27%. Conversely, the CSI 300 and S&P 500 saw declines of 0.57% and 0.45% respectively [7][10]. 2. Major Asset Allocation Strategy Tracking - The report details the performance of various quantitative asset allocation models. The domestic asset BL model 1 achieved a weekly return of 0.26%, while model 2 achieved 0.28%. The global asset BL model 1 and 2 recorded returns of 0.12% and 0.14% respectively for the same week [10][17][21]. 2.1. BL Model Strategy Tracking - The domestic asset BL model 1 has a year-to-date return of 1.13% with an annualized volatility of 2.85%. The global asset BL model 1 has a year-to-date return of 0.69% with an annualized volatility of 2.9% [17][18]. 2.2. Risk Parity Model Strategy Tracking - The domestic risk parity model reported a weekly return of 0.20% and a year-to-date return of 0.49%, with an annualized volatility of 1.16%. The global risk parity model achieved a weekly return of 0.13% and a year-to-date return of 0.38% [21][22]. 2.3. Macro-Factor Based Asset Allocation Strategy - The macro-factor based asset allocation strategy yielded a weekly return of 0.23% and a year-to-date return of 0.61%, with an annualized volatility of 1.73% [29].

Claude Cowork 正式发布，CPU 需求加速增长 [Table_Industry] 电子元器件 | | | [Table_Invest] 评级： 增持 | [姓名table_Authors] | 电话 | 邮箱 | 登记编号 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 舒迪(分析师) | 021-38676666 | shudi@gtht.com | S0880521070002 | | 段笑南(研究助理) | 021-38031382 | duanxiaonan@gtht.com | S0880124070028 | 本报告导读： Claude Cowork 正式发布，通用 Agent 加速落地。Agent 任务中 CPU 需承担更多工 作负荷，CPU 需求或加速增长。 投资要点： [Table_Report] 相关报告 行业跟踪报告 表1：推荐标的估值表（收盘价参考 2026 年 1 月 21 日） | 证券代码 | 公司名称 | 收盘价 | EPS（元/股） | | | PE | | | 评级 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | -- ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Overweight" rating for the real estate chain chemical products sector [1]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes that the improvement in the supply-demand structure of real estate chain chemical products is expected to drive a long-term upward trend. It recommends specific products such as MDI, titanium dioxide, PVC, soda ash, organic silicon, and refrigerants [2][3]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The report discusses the concept of "high-quality development" in real estate, indicating that the supply-demand dynamics for chemical products related to real estate are set to improve, which will support a long-term upward trend in the market [2]. Investment Recommendations - The report highlights key companies to invest in, including: - MDI leader Wanhua Chemical - Titanium dioxide leader Longbai Group - Soda ash leader Boyuan Chemical - Organic silicon leader Hesheng Silicon - Refrigerant leader Juhua Co. - PVC leader Zhongtai Chemical and Xinjiang Tianye [3][4]. Market Dynamics - The report notes that while China's housing demand has shifted from aggressive growth, there is still medium-term support for total demand, projected to stabilize at 700-800 million square meters during the 14th and 15th Five-Year Plans. Factors such as demand improvement, urban renewal, and urbanization are expected to stabilize the overall transaction scale in the industry [3]. Product Applications - The report details the applications of various chemical products in the real estate sector: - MDI is used in environmentally friendly board production and insulation materials for refrigerators - Titanium dioxide is a key white pigment in coatings - PVC is primarily used in the real estate sector, directly influenced by new housing starts and construction progress - Soda ash is essential for producing flat glass and glass products, benefiting from urban renewal projects - Organic silicon adhesives are used in construction for sealing and bonding [3]. Supply and Demand Outlook - The report indicates that the demand side is expected to stabilize due to policy support and the stabilization of real estate companies, while the supply side is seeing an end to expansion in many sectors. This combination is anticipated to improve the supply structure and alleviate competitive pressures [3].

25Q4 流水表现稳健，26 年持续高质量增 | [姓名table_Authors] | 电话 | 邮箱 | 登记编号 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 盛开(分析师) | 021-23154510 | shengkai@gtht.com | S0880525040044 | | 钟启辉(研究助理) | 021-23185686 | zhongqihui@gtht.com | S0880125042254 | 本报告导读： 25Q4 安踏主品牌流水跌低单，FILA 流水增中单，其他品牌流水增 35-40%。主品 牌线下业态稳步推进，线上业务 26 年有望改善。FILA 品牌势能有望维持，Descente 转向健康增长，Kolon 仍处品牌势能释放期。 投资要点： | 财务摘要(百万人民币) | 2024 | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入 | 70826 | 78410 | 85846 | 95707 | | (+/-)% | 13.6% | 10.7% | 9.5% | 11.5% | ...

Market Trends - AI hardware penetration is increasing, leading to a rise in the semiconductor industry, with PCB and memory prices continuing to rise[4] - Lithium carbonate prices have surged by 12.7% due to supply constraints and improving downstream demand[6] - The pork price has improved by 2.4% month-on-month, supported by consumption policies and seasonal demand[5] Consumer Insights - In the real estate sector, the transaction area of commercial housing in 30 major cities has decreased by 30.5% year-on-year, with first-tier cities down by 35.4%[5] - Retail sales of passenger cars have dropped significantly, with a 32% year-on-year decline in daily sales, particularly in the new energy vehicle segment, which saw a 38% drop[5] Industry Developments - The domestic company Tiangong International is focusing on powder metallurgy technology for nuclear fusion materials, with a target of 25% revenue growth over the next three years[8] - The cement production in Uganda has increased from 370,000 tons in 2000 to 5.1 million tons in 2023, driven by rapid urbanization and economic growth[12] Company Performance - Hikvision's net profit for 2025 is projected to be 141.88 billion yuan, reflecting an 18.46% year-on-year increase, driven by high-quality growth strategies[40] - Netflix's revenue for FY26 is expected to reach $511 billion, with a net profit of $135 billion, indicating a 22.5% year-on-year growth[48]

投资要点： | [Table_Authors] | 王一凡(分析师) | | --- | --- | | | 021-38031722 | | | wangyifan4@gtht.com | | 登记编号 | S0880524120001 | | | 唐元懋(分析师) | | | 0755-23976753 | | | tangyuanmao@gtht.com | | 登记编号 | S0880524040002 | 债券研究 /[Table_Date] 2026.01.22 欧洲抛售美债对美债有何影响 本报告导读： 美日债市联动暴跌，政治摩擦与财政叙事引爆期限溢价跳升，超长久期资产遭集中 抛售，风险外溢全球。 [Table_Report] 相关报告 财政金融促内需新政对债市有何影响 2026.01.21 躁动行情换挡，聚焦业绩成色 2026.01.20 基于银行微观数据，26 年存款重定价节奏怎么 看？ 2025.12.29 震荡巩固，蓄力反弹 2025.12.22 把握跨年行情布局时机 2025.12.15 证 券 研 究 报 告 事 件 点 评 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 债 券 研 究 [Tabl ...

Group 1: Strategy Observation - The report highlights the strengthening of AI hardware demand and the continuation of technology manufacturing overseas, with the semiconductor industry experiencing further improvement due to increased AI penetration and export growth in power equipment [4] - Prices of lithium carbonate have surged significantly due to supply constraints and improved downstream demand expectations, while pork prices have also seen improvements supported by consumption policies [4] - Traditional real estate and durable goods sectors continue to face pressure, with a notable decline in retail sales of passenger vehicles [5] Group 2: Industry Tracking - Consumer Electronics - Domestic companies are making breakthroughs in powder metallurgy processes, particularly in nuclear fusion materials, which are expected to benefit from a surge in downstream demand [8] - Tian Gong International, a leader in powder metallurgy, has set ambitious performance targets, indicating strong growth confidence [8] - The company is focusing on high-boron steel and advanced low-activation steel for nuclear fusion applications, leveraging its powder metallurgy technology for cost advantages [9] Group 3: Industry Research - Cement Manufacturing - Uganda is identified as a key market for cement exports, with a rapidly growing economy and increasing cement demand driven by urbanization [12] - The country has a favorable supply structure with only three clinker production lines, leading to a competitive market landscape [13] - Despite high cement prices, profitability remains challenging due to high production costs and logistical issues [14] Group 4: Industry Research - Consumer Discretionary - The smart glasses industry is entering a growth phase, with companies like Mingyue Lens expected to benefit from collaborations with leading brands [16] - The introduction of new smart glasses models, such as Ray-Ban Meta, is anticipated to enhance user experience and expand market applications [17] - The supply chain for AI glasses is broadening, with various players from different sectors entering the market, indicating a significant expansion of the industry [18] Group 5: Company Coverage - BAIC Blue Valley - The company is positioned as a pioneer in China's new energy vehicle sector, with a dual-brand strategy driving revenue growth [21] - Projected revenues for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are estimated at 290 billion, 582 billion, and 889 billion CNY respectively, with a focus on autonomous driving technology [21][22] - The company has seen a significant increase in sales volume, with expectations for continued growth through new model launches [23] Group 6: Company Tracking - Hikvision - The company is expected to achieve a net profit of 141.88 billion CNY in 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 18.46% [40] - Hikvision's strategic shift towards high-quality, sustainable profit growth has led to improved operational efficiency and profitability [41] - The integration of AI into its product offerings is anticipated to drive long-term growth [42] Group 7: Company Tracking - Anfu Technology - The company is focusing on expanding its market presence in the semiconductor sector while maintaining strong performance in its core battery business [45] - Projected earnings per share for 2025 to 2027 are expected to show significant growth, driven by strategic acquisitions and market expansion [45] - The company is leveraging its established brand to enhance its competitive position in the charging market [46] Group 8: Overseas Report - Netflix - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 51.1 billion, 57.6 billion, and 64.6 billion USD from 2026 to 2028, with a focus on expanding its content offerings [48] - Netflix's advertising revenue is expected to double, contributing significantly to its overall financial performance [51] - The acquisition of Warner Bros. is anticipated to enhance content diversity and production capabilities [51]