Investment Rating - The report maintains a rating of "Buy" for the company [1]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the surge in demand due to the food delivery competition has significantly enhanced Luckin Coffee's supply chain and operational advantages, focusing on a growth strategy centered around scale [2]. - The company is projected to achieve substantial revenue growth, with total revenue expected to reach RMB 45.003 billion in 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 30.54% [4]. - The report emphasizes the company's strong performance in Q2 2025, with revenue of RMB 12.359 billion, a year-on-year increase of 47.08%, and a GAAP net profit of RMB 1.251 billion, up 43.56% year-on-year [7]. Financial Summary - Total revenue projections for the company are as follows: - 2023: RMB 24.903 billion - 2024: RMB 34.475 billion - 2025E: RMB 45.003 billion - 2026E: RMB 52.134 billion - 2027E: RMB 56.961 billion - The net profit is expected to grow significantly, with projections of: - 2023: RMB 2.848 billion - 2024: RMB 2.932 billion - 2025E: RMB 3.803 billion - 2026E: RMB 4.668 billion - 2027E: RMB 5.091 billion [4][8]. - The company’s operating profit margin (OPM) for self-operated stores in Q2 2025 was reported at 21.0%, with a gross margin benefiting from supply chain efficiencies [7]. Market Data - The current stock price is USD 38.26, with a market capitalization of USD 10.8 billion [1][5]. - The stock has traded within a range of USD 17.28 to USD 39.98 over the past 52 weeks [5]. Comparable Company Valuation - The report suggests a target price of USD 46.82 for the company, based on a PE ratio of 25 times the expected earnings for 2025, which is above the industry average [7][10].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [5][11]. Core Views - The company plans to acquire Jingzhi Minerals for 6.5 billion CNY, which will significantly increase its ore resource volume. The expected production of titanium concentrate and vanadium-titanium iron concentrate will rise, and the company's performance is anticipated to gradually improve as new mines commence operations [2][11]. - The acquisition is expected to create strong synergies as the newly acquired mine is part of the same mineral vein as the company's existing operations, allowing for collaborative mining efforts [11]. - The company is progressing steadily with its 60,000-ton titanium material project, which will extend its current titanium concentrate business and open new growth opportunities in various applications [11]. Financial Summary - The projected total revenue for 2023 is 1,856 million CNY, with a slight decrease of 7.0% from the previous year. Revenue is expected to grow to 3,325 million CNY by 2027, reflecting a significant increase of 63.2% [4][12]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to be 936 million CNY in 2023, with a decline of 14.5%, but is expected to rise to 1,029 million CNY by 2027 [4][12]. - The earnings per share (EPS) is projected to be 1.98 CNY in 2023, increasing to 2.18 CNY by 2027 [4][12]. Valuation - The target price for the company has been raised to 39 CNY, based on a 20x price-to-earnings (PE) ratio for 2025, which is slightly above the industry average [11][13]. - The current market price is 29.61 CNY, with a market capitalization of 13,976 million CNY [6][11]. Industry Context - The company operates in the metals and mining sector, focusing on titanium concentrate and iron ore, with plans to expand into titanium materials [5][11]. - The report compares the company with peers in the industry, indicating a favorable position due to its resource base and ongoing projects [13].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to the company, Modern Dairy, with a target price of HKD 1.59 per share, corresponding to a 1.09 times P/B ratio for 2025 [7][11][17]. Core Insights - The company is positioned as a leader in the dairy industry, benefiting from a cyclical recovery and demonstrating strong earnings elasticity. The report anticipates a rebound in raw milk prices and a return to supply-demand balance in the second half of 2025 [3][11][53]. - The company has implemented a cost leadership strategy across its entire supply chain, which includes feed production, dairy farming, and processing, aiming to reduce procurement costs and enhance operational efficiency [11][20][45]. Financial Summary - Total revenue projections for 2025-2027 are estimated at RMB 133.50 billion, RMB 145.99 billion, and RMB 163.47 billion, reflecting growth rates of 0.7%, 9.4%, and 12.0% respectively. The net profit for the same period is expected to be -RMB 5.80 billion, RMB 4.38 billion, and RMB 15.84 billion, with EPS of -0.07, 0.06, and 0.20 yuan per share [5][16][19]. - The gross margin is projected to improve from 26.0% in 2024 to 33.6% by 2027, driven by cost reductions and increased milk prices [5][19]. Industry Position - Modern Dairy holds a 7% market share in the dairy industry as of 2024, with a significant portion of its raw milk sales being secured by its major shareholder, Mengniu Dairy, which has consistently purchased over 90% of the company's raw milk [11][32][20]. - The company has expanded its operations through acquisitions and innovative leasing models, allowing for low-cost expansion and increased production capacity [20][32]. Operational Efficiency - The company has focused on optimizing its herd structure, increasing the proportion of productive cows, and enhancing milk yield through digital management systems. The average milk yield per cow is expected to exceed 13 tons in the first half of 2025 [60][11]. - Cost control measures have led to a significant reduction in feed costs, with the cost per kilogram of milk dropping by 16.7% year-on-year to RMB 1.95 in 2024 [45][46].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" with a target price of 181.20 CNY [4]. Core Views - The strategic partnership between the company and Yushu Technology aims to create a "channel + technology" collaborative model, which is expected to accelerate the deployment of robotic products in North America and expand consumer-level applications and product development, forming a new growth curve [2][11]. - The company has raised its EPS forecasts for 2025, 2026, and 2027 to 6.01, 7.55, and 9.26 CNY respectively, and has adjusted the target price to 174.29 CNY based on a 29x PE ratio for 2025, maintaining the "Accumulate" rating [11]. Financial Summary - The total revenue for 2023 is projected at 2,144 million CNY, with a growth rate of 21.4%. By 2027, the revenue is expected to reach 5,801 million CNY, reflecting a growth rate of 22.3% [12]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company for 2023 is estimated at 280 million CNY, with a growth rate of 36.1%. The net profit is expected to increase to 1,005 million CNY by 2027, with a growth rate of 22.5% [12]. - The company’s net asset return rate is projected to rise from 9.5% in 2023 to 22.8% in 2027 [12]. Market Data - The company's market capitalization is approximately 17,070 million CNY, with a 52-week stock price range of 43.04 to 161.35 CNY [5]. - The current stock price is 157.14 CNY, with a price-to-book ratio of 5.3 and a net debt ratio of -37.04% [6][11]. Strategic Initiatives - The partnership focuses on three main areas: joint exploration of overseas sales, collaborative research on consumer-level applications, and enhancing commercialization efficiency [11]. - The company is advancing its global production capacity with a manufacturing system that integrates China, Southeast Asia, and North America, enhancing its risk resistance capabilities [11].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Optimizing the position strategy can effectively enhance the real - world performance of the quantitative framework, which is a multiplier method for increasing returns, especially in volatile markets [2][6][111] - Binary full - position strategies can capture returns efficiently in obvious trends but come with high volatility, drawdown risks, and high turnover and commission costs; threshold step - by - step addition strategies have low trading frequency but limited ability to capture returns in volatile markets (except for the LG model) [2][111] - Single continuous strategies perform well in volatile markets. Linear and normal strategies show high return stability, while Sigmoid, Atanh, and Atanh - Sigmoid strategies have significant advantages in volatility control, suitable for risk - averse investors. The GRU model shows stable performance in improving odds, while the strategy advantages of LG, SVM and other models are environment - dependent [2][111] - In terms of turnover and commission consumption, single continuous strategies such as Sigmoid and Atanh can reduce turnover and commission consumption in volatile markets, and investors should focus more on returns rather than commission costs [2][111] Group 3: Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Multi - factor Model's Position Strategy Introduction - **Multi - long and short full - position strategy**: It is a binary extreme position management mode, which can be used as a performance benchmark and a reference for other strategies. It performs poorly in bull markets and better in volatile markets, and is more suitable for non - linear models in volatile markets [12][32][33] - **Threshold multi - long and short full - position strategy and step - by - step addition strategy**: The threshold full - position strategy introduces a fuzzy interval filtering mechanism to reduce misjudgment risks and improve the overall risk - return ratio. The step - by - step addition strategy can reduce turnover and trading costs but may sacrifice some returns, except for the LG model in volatile markets [13][14][53] - **Continuous strategies based on different risk preferences and mapping functions**: Continuous strategies can convert binary probability signals into position adjustment signals, which can be divided into risk - seeking, risk - averse, and risk - neutral types according to risk preferences. Different mapping functions such as linear, Sigmoid, normal, Atanh, and Atanh - Sigmoid are used [18] 3.2 Strategy Back - testing - **Back - testing sample interval and key parameters**: The trading target is the Treasury bond futures T contract. The period from January 1, 2024, to December 31, 2024, is regarded as a bull market, and the period from January 1, 2025, to May 9, 2025, is regarded as a volatile market [31] - **Benchmark results of multi - long and short full - position strategy**: It has little effect on increasing returns in bull markets and performs better in volatile markets. Non - linear models such as RF and SVM can better handle the problem of return increase in volatile markets [33][34] - **Threshold full - position strategy and step - by - step position adjustment strategy**: The threshold strategy can optimize the odds of investment strategies in both bull and volatile markets, but the application effect depends on the model type and market environment. The step - by - step position adjustment strategy can significantly reduce turnover and trading costs but usually sacrifices some returns, except for the LG model in volatile markets [37][40][53] - **Analysis of the effect of single continuous strategies**: In volatile markets, continuous position strategies can significantly improve the odds of strategies without increasing the prediction win rate. Different strategies such as Atanh and Sigmoid have different risk - return characteristics, and their turnover is related to the model and market environment [58][73][74] - **Rediscussion of the impact of trading commissions**: The key is to increase returns rather than reduce costs. Although different models and strategies have different commission consumption, the impact of commissions on returns is relatively small, and investors should focus on return enhancement [94][97][110] 3.3 Summary and Strategy Recommendations - Different position management strategies play an important role in return acquisition and risk control. Investors should choose appropriate models and strategies according to their risk preferences and market conditions [111]

Domestic Macro - The State Council announced measures to gradually implement free preschool education, which is a significant initiative affecting many families and long-term development [6][16] - Premier Li Qiang attended the 2025 World Artificial Intelligence Conference, proposing three suggestions for advancing AI development and governance, emphasizing inclusivity, innovation cooperation, and joint governance [6][16] - The National Childcare Subsidy Scheme was officially announced, providing an annual subsidy of 3,600 yuan for each child under three years old, effective from January 1, 2025 [6][16] Industry Policy - The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) outlined seven key tasks for the next phase of reform and development, focusing on stabilizing the market and enhancing regulatory effectiveness [7][19] - The People's Bank of China and the State Administration of Foreign Exchange issued a draft regulation for the centralized operation of cross-border funds for multinational companies, aimed at facilitating cross-border capital management [7][19] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT) set eight key work areas for the second half of the year, including enhancing the supply-demand match for consumer goods and promoting the development of new industrial sectors [7][19] Local Policy - Shanghai's GDP for the first half of the year reached 26,222.15 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 5.1% [8][23] - The Shanghai government launched the "Mosu Zhixing" action plan for high-level autonomous driving, aiming to establish a leading autonomous driving zone by 2027 [8][23] - Beijing introduced measures to improve the support policy system for childbirth, including increasing housing fund loan limits for families with multiple children [8][23] Overseas Dynamics - The U.S. Secretary of Commerce announced that the deadline for additional tariffs on August 1 would not be extended, and a 15% tariff agreement was reached with the EU [9][24] - The U.S. and China held trade talks in Stockholm, aiming to extend previously suspended tariff measures and address trade relations [9][24] - The U.S. government announced a 50% tariff on imported semi-finished copper products starting August 1, along with other trade measures [9][24]

Group 1 - The report indicates that the prices of cyclical products continue to rise, while the domestic production of air conditioners has turned negative [7][8]. - Real estate sales remain sluggish, with a year-on-year decline of 11.0% in the transaction area of 30 major cities, and the air conditioner production for August is expected to decline significantly due to high base effects from the previous year [8][11]. - The service consumption sector shows seasonal improvement, but long-distance passenger transport demand has decreased, indicating that the summer service consumption outlook remains uncertain [7][8]. Group 2 - In the manufacturing sector, the expectation of anti-involution policies has increased, leading to a rise in steel and float glass prices, while cement prices remain under pressure due to weak demand affected by rainy weather [9][26]. - The operating rates in the manufacturing sector show mixed trends, with a notable decline in petroleum asphalt production, while recruitment intentions among companies have slightly improved [37][9]. - The prices of upstream resources, including thermal coal and industrial metals, have continued to rise, driven by increased demand and tightening supply expectations [46][48]. Group 3 - Long-distance passenger transport demand has slightly decreased, while domestic freight and express logistics have shown a decline in activity, with highway truck traffic and railway freight volume down by 0.6% and 2.1% respectively [55][57]. - The report highlights that the average price of live pigs has decreased by 1.2% week-on-week, attributed to increased market supply due to rising temperatures [13][19]. - The report notes that the average price of floating glass has increased by 2.2% week-on-week, reflecting improved market demand despite general market conditions [30][26].

Group 1 - The report emphasizes the importance of optimizing position strategies to enhance the performance of quantitative frameworks in the bond market [1][4][12] - It highlights that the choice of position strategy can significantly impact the overall model's performance, especially in volatile market conditions [4][19][50] - The report discusses various position strategies, including full long/short strategies, threshold-based strategies, and gradual accumulation strategies, each with distinct advantages and disadvantages [20][24][25][26] Group 2 - The report presents a detailed analysis of the backtesting results for different strategies, indicating that the full long/short strategy performs well in trending markets but may incur high transaction costs [47][50][51] - It notes that threshold strategies can filter out low-confidence signals, improving the risk-reward ratio in both bull and volatile markets [55][56] - Gradual adjustment strategies are shown to reduce turnover and trading costs, although they may sacrifice some potential returns, particularly in volatile markets [57][58] Group 3 - The report categorizes continuous strategies based on risk preferences, utilizing different mapping functions to adjust positions according to the strength of the signals [32][34][39] - It discusses the effectiveness of various mapping functions, such as linear, Sigmoid, normal, Atanh, and Atanh-Sigmoid strategies, in managing positions based on market signals [33][36][38][39] - The analysis indicates that non-linear models, particularly in volatile markets, can enhance performance and manage risks more effectively than linear models [51][52]

Economic Performance - The US GDP growth rate for Q2 2025 reached 3.0%, exceeding market expectations of 2.6% and significantly higher than the previous quarter's -0.5%[7] - The main supports for GDP growth were a decrease in "import rush," resilient consumer spending, and private non-residential investment[7] - The contribution of net exports to GDP increased to 4.99% in Q2 2025, compared to a drag of 4.61% in Q1 2025 due to the "import rush" effect[10] Federal Reserve Insights - The Federal Reserve maintained the federal funds rate at 4.25%-4.5% during the July 2025 FOMC meeting, marking the fifth consecutive meeting without a rate change[22] - There is increasing internal division within the Fed, with two members advocating for a 25 basis point rate cut, indicating growing dissent[22] - Fed Chair Powell emphasized the Fed's independence and a hawkish stance, suggesting that future decisions will be data-driven rather than politically influenced[22] Inflation and Market Outlook - Inflation is expected to rise due to tariffs, which have not yet fully impacted consumer prices, potentially constraining future rate cuts[23] - The market's expectation for rate cuts has narrowed, with only one rate cut anticipated in October 2025, reflecting a shift in sentiment[23] - The 10-year US Treasury yield is projected to oscillate between 4.5% and 5.0% in the second half of 2025, influenced by rising inflation expectations and economic policies[26] Stock Market Projections - The US stock market may experience short-term volatility but is expected to maintain an overall upward trend, particularly in technology sectors supported by capital expenditures[27] - The anticipated implementation of tax cuts is expected to benefit small and medium-sized enterprises, particularly those represented by the Russell 2000 index[27] Risk Factors - Potential risks include unexpected increases in tariffs leading to significant economic downturns and inflation spikes, as well as challenges to the Fed's independence from political pressures[29]

- Model Name: Domestic Asset BL Model 1; Model Construction Idea: The BL model is an improvement of the traditional mean-variance model, combining subjective views with quantitative models using Bayesian theory; Model Construction Process: The model optimizes asset allocation weights based on investor market analysis and asset return forecasts, effectively addressing the sensitivity of the mean-variance model to expected returns; Model Evaluation: The BL model provides a higher fault tolerance compared to purely subjective investments, offering efficient asset allocation solutions[14][15] - Model Name: Domestic Asset BL Model 2; Model Construction Idea: Similar to Domestic Asset BL Model 1; Model Construction Process: The model is built on the same principles as Domestic Asset BL Model 1 but with different asset selections; Model Evaluation: Similar to Domestic Asset BL Model 1[14][15] - Model Name: Global Asset BL Model 1; Model Construction Idea: Similar to Domestic Asset BL Model 1; Model Construction Process: The model is built on the same principles as Domestic Asset BL Model 1 but targets global assets; Model Evaluation: Similar to Domestic Asset BL Model 1[14][15] - Model Name: Global Asset BL Model 2; Model Construction Idea: Similar to Global Asset BL Model 1; Model Construction Process: The model is built on the same principles as Global Asset BL Model 1 but with different asset selections; Model Evaluation: Similar to Global Asset BL Model 1[14][15] - Model Name: Domestic Asset Risk Parity Model; Model Construction Idea: The risk parity model aims to equalize the risk contribution of each asset in the portfolio; Model Construction Process: The model calculates the risk contribution of each asset and optimizes the deviation between actual and expected risk contributions to determine final asset weights; Model Evaluation: The model provides stable returns across different economic cycles[20][21] - Model Name: Global Asset Risk Parity Model; Model Construction Idea: Similar to Domestic Asset Risk Parity Model; Model Construction Process: The model is built on the same principles as Domestic Asset Risk Parity Model but targets global assets; Model Evaluation: Similar to Domestic Asset Risk Parity Model[20][21] - Model Name: Macro Factor-Based Asset Allocation Model; Model Construction Idea: The model constructs a macro factor system covering growth, inflation, interest rates, credit, exchange rates, and liquidity; Model Construction Process: The model uses the Factor Mimicking Portfolio method to construct high-frequency macro factors and optimizes asset weights based on subjective macro views; Model Evaluation: The model bridges macro research and asset allocation, reflecting subjective macro judgments in asset allocation[23][24][27] - Domestic Asset BL Model 1, Weekly Return: 0.02%, July Return: 0.61%, 2025 YTD Return: 2.46%, Annualized Volatility: 2.16%, Maximum Drawdown: 1.31%[17][19] - Domestic Asset BL Model 2, Weekly Return: -0.06%, July Return: 0.48%, 2025 YTD Return: 2.41%, Annualized Volatility: 1.93%, Maximum Drawdown: 1.06%[17][19] - Global Asset BL Model 1, Weekly Return: -0.09%, July Return: 0.56%, 2025 YTD Return: 0.95%, Annualized Volatility: 1.95%, Maximum Drawdown: 1.64%[17][19] - Global Asset BL Model 2, Weekly Return: -0.07%, July Return: 0.51%, 2025 YTD Return: 1.59%, Annualized Volatility: 1.7%, Maximum Drawdown: 1.28%[17][19] - Domestic Asset Risk Parity Model, Weekly Return: -0.02%, July Return: 0.36%, 2025 YTD Return: 2.7%, Annualized Volatility: 1.46%, Maximum Drawdown: 0.76%[22][23] - Global Asset Risk Parity Model, Weekly Return: -0.03%, July Return: 0.3%, 2025 YTD Return: 2.16%, Annualized Volatility: 1.66%, Maximum Drawdown: 1.2%[22][23] - Macro Factor-Based Asset Allocation Model, Weekly Return: -0.03%, July Return: 0.38%, 2025 YTD Return: 2.76%, Annualized Volatility: 1.36%, Maximum Drawdown: 0.64%[28][29]