Core Insights - The report indicates a decline in trading activity, with the CSI 300 index experiencing the largest drop in valuation [1] - Overall valuations have decreased across indices, with the CSI 300 leading the decline [1][4] - Consumer services have shown resilience in PE valuation, while banks have led in PB valuation [4][5] Index Valuation - The CSI 300 index has seen a PE-TTM historical percentile drop of 6.5 percentage points, while the PB-LF historical percentile has decreased by 7.5 percentage points [4][5] - All major indices have experienced a comprehensive decline in valuations, with the CSI 300 index leading the downturn [4][5] Industry Valuation - In terms of PE valuation, consumer services have increased by 1.0 percentage point, while banks have led in PB valuation with a 0.5 percentage point increase [4][5] - The automotive sector is noted for its cost-effectiveness in the PE-G comparison [4] Market Sentiment - Trading activity has decreased, with turnover rates and transaction volumes declining across most indices, except for the ChiNext index, which saw an increase of 2.3% in turnover rate and 8.2% in transaction volume [4][5] - The margin trading balance has risen to 1.98 trillion yuan, reflecting a 2.30% increase [4][5] Risk Premium - The equity risk premium (ERP) for the entire A-share market has slightly increased to 4.71%, up by 0.12 percentage points from the previous week [4][5]

Group 1: Strategy Overview - The report emphasizes that the Chinese economy is undergoing a transformation, leading to a "transformation bull market" in the stock market, with expectations for new highs in the future [1][15][16] - Key investment themes include a focus on financials, growth sectors, and certain cyclical industries, as the market adjusts and gains confidence [1][2][3] Group 2: Key Investment Recommendations - The August stock selection includes: 1. Banking: China Merchants Bank 2. Non-bank: CICC and New China Life Insurance 3. Overseas Technology: Tencent Holdings and Kuaishou-W 4. Electronics: Cambricon Technologies, Chipone Technology, and Suzhou Tianmai 5. Computing: Dingjie Smart and Anheng Information 6. Machinery: Hengli Hydraulic and Mingzhi Electric 7. Military: AVIC Shenfei 8. Coal: Shaanxi Coal and Chemical Industry 9. Light Industry: Sun Paper 10. Agriculture: Muyuan Foods 11. Transportation: SF Express 12. Pharmaceuticals: MicroPort Medical 13. Real Estate: China Resources Mixc Lifestyle 14. Utilities: Huadian International Power [1][4][12] Group 3: Banking Sector Insights - The banking sector is expected to face revenue pressure but maintain positive net profit growth, with a gradual recovery in net interest margins anticipated [22][23] - China Merchants Bank is projected to benefit from economic recovery, with an upward revision of net profit growth forecasts for 2025-2027 [25][26][27] Group 4: Non-Banking Sector Insights - The impact of the new tax on bond interest income is expected to be limited for the non-banking sector, with continued optimism for growth in this area [30][32] - CICC is forecasted to see significant profit growth driven by active trading and investment recovery, with an increase in EPS estimates for 2025-2027 [33][34] Group 5: Technology Sector Insights - Major tech companies are increasing capital expenditures significantly, particularly in AI, indicating a robust growth trajectory for the sector [43][45] - Tencent is expected to leverage AI to enhance its core business, with revenue and profit projections being adjusted upwards for 2025-2027 [45][46][47]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report The implementation of the new policy of resuming VAT on the interest income of newly issued bonds after August 8, 2025, will have a significant impact on the spot bond market and will also be transmitted to the pricing logic and trading strategies of Treasury bond futures. The key to whether there will be inter - period gaming opportunities or short - squeezing phenomena in Treasury bond futures lies in whether the CTD bond (cheapest to deliver bond) switches. The T contract may be a special case in the subsequent CTD bond changes, and there may be inter - period arbitrage opportunities and short - squeezing [1][6]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Whether the Cancellation of Tax Exemption on Treasury Bonds Will Lead to CTD Bond Switching: The T Contract Is a Special Case - Generally, new bonds are difficult to replace old bonds as CTD bonds. New bonds with longer durations need to be fully discounted, which is difficult to achieve in practice. However, the 7 - year new bond in the T contract's deliverable bonds has a relatively short duration and only needs a small discount to become the CTD bond [11][12]. - There are two common empirical rules for identifying CTD bonds: when the spot bond yield is higher than the coupon rate (3%) of the Treasury bond futures virtual bond, high - duration bonds tend to be CTD bonds; when it is lower, low - duration bonds tend to be CTD bonds. For bonds with similar durations, the one with a higher yield to maturity is more likely to be the CTD bond [11]. - For TS, TF, and TL contracts, the newly issued bonds are generally of longer duration among the deliverable bonds, so they need to be significantly discounted to replace old bonds as CTD bonds. For the T contract, the 7 - year new bond only needs to have an issue rate about 3 - 6bp higher than the active bond to become the CTD bond for the 2512 or 2603 contracts, while the 10 - year new bond needs an issue rate about 30bp higher [14][17][18]. 3.2 How Will the Inter - period Change After the Cancellation of Tax Exemption: Focus on Contracts with CTD Bond Switching - The key to whether there are inter - period arbitrage opportunities after the cancellation of tax exemption on Treasury bonds lies in whether the CTD bonds of near - and far - month contracts switch. If the CTD bonds switch, considering the tax - exemption effect, the contract with the old bond as the CTD bond may be stronger than the one with the new bond, and inter - period arbitrage can be carried out [19]. - Contracts where CTD bonds are more likely to switch are TS2603, T2603, and T2512. With the new issuance of 2 - year and 7 - year Treasury bonds on September 12, there may be opportunities to focus on the inter - period spreads of TS2512 - TS2603 and T2512 - T2603 [7][20]. 3.3 Will There Be a "Short - Squeezing" in Treasury Bond Futures After the Cancellation of Tax Exemption on Treasury Bonds? - The possibility of short - squeezing in Treasury bond futures contracts with old bonds as CTD bonds is relatively small. The large stock of old bonds and subsequent issuances ensure sufficient supply, and excessive chasing will reduce their cost - effectiveness, thus suppressing the buying sentiment [23][25]. - Contracts where CTD bonds may switch to new bonds may face short - squeezing pressure. New bonds have low supply and circulation at the initial issuance stage, and the market lacks experience in dealing with new bonds as CTD bonds. The T contract and TS2603 contract are more likely to have CTD bond switches, and the T contract may face more severe short - squeezing pressure due to its large delivery volume and the relatively poor liquidity of the 7 - year Treasury bond [25].

Investment Rating - The report recommends a positive outlook on the consumption building materials sector, particularly waterproof materials with lower profit baselines [2][5][16]. Core Insights - The consumption building materials sector is entering a low baseline peak season in Q3 2024, with expectations for improved monthly high-frequency data and quarterly profit forecasts compared to H1 2024 [2][5]. - The cement and glass sectors are anticipated to experience price rebounds post mid-August, with potential supply changes during the September military parade providing price elasticity opportunities [2][5]. - Specific companies such as Puyang Nair and Reborn Technology are highlighted for their strategic acquisitions and market positioning, which are expected to enhance their profitability and competitive advantages [3][6][7]. Summary by Sections Consumption Building Materials - The sector is expected to see a recovery in profitability ahead of revenue growth, with a focus on cost reduction and price stabilization [15][16]. - Companies like Dongfang Yuhong and Rabbit Baby are noted for their strong cash flow and dividend performance, with market expectations for net profits in 2025 at approximately 20 million and 7.5 million respectively [16][17]. Cement - The cement market is currently experiencing a price decline, with a 0.3% drop noted, but is expected to stabilize as demand shows signs of improvement [19][43]. - The industry is seeing a shift towards limiting overproduction, with policies aimed at stabilizing supply and improving profitability [19][21]. Glass - The float glass market is under pressure with declining prices and increased inventory, but there is potential for recovery as supply-side adjustments take place [27][29]. - Companies like Xinyi Glass are projected to face a 30-40% decline in net profit for 2024, but maintain a healthy balance sheet and competitive positioning [29][35]. Fiberglass and Carbon Fiber - The fiberglass market is experiencing a split in production and sales, with larger manufacturers benefiting from high-end product demand while smaller firms struggle [36][39]. - The carbon fiber sector is seeing a recovery in wind power demand, which is expected to improve profitability in the coming quarters [40].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" [4][11]. Core Views - The company continues to experience high revenue growth driven by its diverse business segments, including two-wheeled vehicles, lawnmowers, and scooters, with expectations for further growth in all-terrain vehicles and Ebikes [1][11]. - The projected net profit for the company from 2025 to 2027 is expected to be 20.15 billion, 26.22 billion, and 32.29 billion CNY, respectively, with earnings per share (EPS) of 28.01, 36.44, and 44.88 CNY, reflecting year-on-year growth of 85.9%, 30.1%, and 23.2% [11][12]. - The company has reported a significant increase in sales and profitability, with Q2 2025 revenue reaching 66.3 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 61.5%, and net profit of 7.86 billion CNY, up 70.8% year-on-year [11][12]. Financial Summary - Total revenue is projected to grow from 10,222 million CNY in 2023 to 34,055 million CNY in 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 20.5% [3][12]. - Net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to rise from 598 million CNY in 2023 to 3,229 million CNY in 2027, reflecting a CAGR of 23.2% [3][12]. - The company's price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is projected to decrease from 7.05 in 2023 to 1.31 in 2027, indicating increasing valuation attractiveness [3][12]. Business Performance - The company reported a sales volume of 138.87 million units for electric two-wheeled vehicles in Q2 2025, a 77% increase year-on-year, contributing 39.6 billion CNY in revenue [11][12]. - The average selling price (ASP) for electric two-wheeled vehicles was 2,852 CNY, reflecting a 2% increase year-on-year [11][12]. - The company has over 8,700 dedicated stores for electric two-wheeled vehicles in China as of June 30, 2025 [11][12]. Shareholder Returns - The company announced a semi-annual dividend plan, distributing 4.23 CNY per 10 shares, totaling 300 million CNY, which represents 24.19% of its net profit [11][12].

Market Pricing Status - The trading heat in the market has slightly declined, with turnover rates decreasing and net capital inflows reducing [8][24][28] - The average daily trading volume for the entire A-share market decreased to 18.1 billion, down from 18.5 billion the previous week [8] - The proportion of stocks rising in the A-share market dropped to 31.9%, with a median weekly return of -1.48% [8][9] A-Share Liquidity Tracking - ETF outflows have accelerated, with overall capital inflows slowing down [24][28] - The new issuance scale of equity funds decreased to 8.87 billion, down from 19.41 billion [35] - Foreign capital inflow into the A-share market was 25.9 million USD, with the northbound capital transaction proportion dropping to 11.6% [46][48] A-Share Industry Allocation - Financing capital is flowing into the pharmaceutical and electronics sectors, while foreign capital is entering the banking sector [3][46] - The net inflow for the pharmaceutical sector was 6.7 billion, and for electronics, it was 6.06 billion [3] - The ETF capital flow showed net inflows in food and beverage (+0.95 billion) and coal (+0.22 billion), while electronics (-11.09 billion) and pharmaceuticals (-6.46 billion) experienced net outflows [3][46] Hong Kong and Global Capital Flow - Southbound capital inflows increased, with net purchases rising to 59.02 billion, the highest since 2022 [4][48] - The Hang Seng Index fell by 3.5%, with major global markets also experiencing declines, particularly the French CAC40 index, which dropped by 3.7% [4][48] - Foreign capital primarily flowed into developed markets, with the US receiving 4.06 billion and the UK 0.98 billion [4][48]

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating for the industry [2]. Core Insights - The lawn mowing robot industry is reaching a "singularity" moment, with companies possessing technological advantages and overseas experience likely to emerge as winners [4]. - The market for lawn mowing robots is vast and mature, with a potential market space of up to 3 million units, driven by the rigid demand for lawn maintenance in private gardens across Europe and the US [6][14]. - The global sales of lawn mowing robots are expected to reach 3 million units in the future, with significant growth anticipated as technology matures and prices decrease [24]. Summary by Sections 1. The Rise of Boundaryless Intelligent Lawn Mowing Robots - The transition from traditional lawn mowers to intelligent robots represents a significant technological evolution, with the average annual cost of intelligent lawn mowing robots around $183 [8][11]. - The mainstream technology route for these robots is RTK + visual fusion, which enhances operational efficiency in complex environments [11][12]. 2. Huge Market Demand and Growing Intelligence - The US and Europe account for 72% of the global private garden market, with a strong cultural emphasis on lawn maintenance [14][15]. - The penetration rate of intelligent lawn mowing robots remains low, particularly in the US, where it is less than 5% [18]. 3. Industry Competition and Key Players - The industry features three main types of players: traditional outdoor power equipment giants, technology-driven companies, and startups focusing on price advantages [27]. - Notable companies include Husqvarna and Worx, which dominate the market but face challenges from innovative tech firms like Ninebot and Ecovacs [28][30]. 4. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends investing in companies with technological leadership and international experience, specifically Ninebot (2025 PE: 22.7×), Ecovacs (23.3×), and Roborock (20.4×) [48].

Group 1: Cross-Asset Overview - The report indicates a general pullback in equity markets, with safe-haven assets outperforming risk assets. The Hong Kong stock market led declines in developed markets, while South Korea's stock market led declines in emerging markets. Commodity prices showed increased divergence, with oil prices rebounding but copper prices plummeting over 20% due to policy impacts. The overall bond market in China showed signs of recovery, while the US dollar strengthened against other currencies [7][20][57]. Group 2: Equity Market Analysis - The global equity market experienced a widespread pullback, with developed and emerging markets declining simultaneously. In developed markets, major US indices fell over 2%, and the Russell 2000 small-cap index dropped 4.2%. In emerging markets, South Korea's KOSDAQ fell 4.2%, driven by concerns over tax reforms proposed by the government, which included raising capital gains tax thresholds and increasing corporate tax rates [20][21][25]. Group 3: Bond Market Insights - The Chinese bond market exhibited a "bull flattening" trend, with the yield curve shifting downward. The 10Y-2Y yield spread narrowed, indicating a stable bond market environment. In contrast, the US bond market showed a "bull steepening" trend, with the yield curve also moving downward but the 10Y-2Y spread widening. The market anticipates an 80.3% probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut in September, following disappointing employment data [38][39]. Group 4: Commodity and Currency Trends - Commodity prices shifted from rising to falling, with copper prices experiencing a significant drop of 23.3%. The report highlights that oil and gold prices increased, while other commodities faced declines. The US dollar index rose by 1% during the week, supported by strong GDP growth and employment data from the US, leading to a strengthening of the dollar against other currencies [57][58][62].

Economic Overview - The US GDP growth rate for Q2 2025 increased significantly to 3%, up 3.5 percentage points from Q1[12] - Personal disposable income in June rose by 4.3% year-on-year, while personal consumption expenditure increased by 4.75%[14] - The core PCE price index in June grew by 2.58% year-on-year, with the core PCE at 2.79%[17] Employment Data - Non-farm payrolls added 73,000 jobs in July, but the three-month moving average trend continues to decline[19] - The unemployment rate in July rose to 4.2%, an increase of 0.1 percentage points from June[20] - The U6 unemployment rate also increased to 7.9%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month[20] Market Reactions - Major stock indices experienced declines, with the S&P 500 down 2.4% and the Hang Seng Index down 3.5%[5] - The dollar index rose by 1.0% over the week, despite a subsequent drop after initial gains[9] - Commodity prices showed mixed results, with COMEX copper falling by 20.2%[5] Policy Insights - Fed Chair Powell emphasized the importance of inflation risks over employment risks in his recent statements, indicating a cautious approach to potential rate cuts[46] - The Bank of Japan maintained its interest rate at 0.5%, aligning with market expectations, while adjusting inflation forecasts upward[51] Trade Agreements - The US has reached trade agreements with multiple countries, including a 15% tariff on EU imports, while negotiations with China continue[47]

Consumption Trends - Consumer spending shows a divergence with weak goods consumption and strong service consumption, particularly in travel and cinema during the summer[7] - Retail sales of automobiles have slightly declined, with wholesale volumes increasing marginally, indicating seasonal and promotional impacts[16] - Food prices continue to drop, with agricultural products seeing an expanding year-on-year decline[16] Investment Insights - As of August 2, 2025, the cumulative issuance of special bonds reached CNY 2.8 trillion, marking the highest issuance for the same period since 2020[22] - New housing transactions in 30 cities have shown a seasonal rebound, but the year-on-year decline in transaction area has widened from 14.8% to 15.4%[22] Import and Export Dynamics - Port operations have slowed due to typhoon impacts, with a year-on-year decline in the number of ships docking at ports[32] - Domestic export freight rates have decreased by 2.3%, while import rates have slightly increased by 1.1%[32] Production and Inventory - Overall production has shown marginal weakening, with coal consumption rising seasonally but still reflecting a year-on-year decline[36] - Inventory levels for coal at ports have slightly decreased, while cement and steel inventories have shown seasonal increases[39] Price Movements - Consumer prices continue to decline, with the iCPI showing a slight decrease in year-on-year growth, particularly in transportation and healthcare sectors[42] - Industrial prices are also experiencing a marginal decline, with the South China price index dropping by 1.1%[42] Liquidity Conditions - Funding rates have decreased, with R007 down by 20.7 basis points, indicating a trend towards a more accommodative liquidity environment[46] - The 10-year government bond yield has fallen to 1.71%, reflecting easing pressure in the funding market[46]