Investment Rating - The report assigns a rating of "Buy" to the company with a target price of 9.45 CNY [5][16]. Core Insights - The company is expected to benefit from the recovery in demand and the advancement of its inter-provincial cruise project, which is anticipated to open new business growth and profit flexibility [2][12]. - The company aims to transition from a purely sightseeing model to a vacation-oriented model, enhancing overall customer spending and profit levels through the introduction of four inter-provincial cruise ships [12][16]. - The projected net profits for the company from 2025 to 2027 are estimated to be 112 million CNY, 153 million CNY, and 206 million CNY respectively, with corresponding EPS of 0.16 CNY, 0.21 CNY, and 0.28 CNY [16][19]. Financial Summary - Total revenue is projected to decline from 1,600 million CNY in 2023 to 741 million CNY in 2024, followed by a gradual increase to 1,326 million CNY by 2027 [4][13]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to show significant growth from 130 million CNY in 2023 to 206 million CNY in 2027, reflecting a substantial increase in profitability [4][13]. - The company’s return on equity (ROE) is projected to rise from 4.2% in 2023 to 6.3% in 2027, indicating improved financial performance [4][13]. Demand Analysis - The company reported a 20.20% year-on-year increase in tourism revenue to 286 million CNY in the first half of 2025, driven by a rise in visitor numbers and product price adjustments [22][23]. - The number of tourists served by the cruise products reached 1.2525 million, marking a 10.96% increase compared to the previous year, indicating a strong recovery in demand [22][23]. Supply Analysis - The regulatory environment has tightened, with new restrictions on the establishment of inter-provincial passenger transport companies, which is expected to stabilize the competitive landscape [26][28]. - The company plans to build and operate four large leisure cruise ships, with the first two expected to be operational by June and December 2026, respectively [29][30].

投资要点： 股 票 研 预期不变，信心充沛 农夫山泉(9633) 农夫山泉（9633）跟踪点评 | [姓名table_Authors] | 电话 | 邮箱 | 登记编号 | [Table_Invest] 评级： | 增持 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 訾猛(分析师) | 021-38676442 | zimeng@gtht.com | S0880513120002 | | | | 颜慧菁(分析师) | 021-23183952 | yanhuijing@gtht.com | S0880525040022 | [当前价格 Table_CurPrice] (港元)： | 45.84 | | 张宇轩(分析师) | 021-23154172 | zhangyuxuan@gtht.com | S0880525040039 | | | 本报告导读： 考虑到旺季旺销，低基数效应，以及聚酯瓶片有利价格，继续看好 25H2 业绩良好 表现。 | | | 风险提示。（1）食安风险，（2）需求不及预期，（3）成本波动。 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | - ...

Investment Rating - The report rates the industry as "Buy" [3] Core Insights - The IP food and play industry is rapidly growing under the trend of emotional consumption, with supply chain management and IP operation being the core [2][3] - The market for IP food products is expected to grow from 18.2% CAGR from 2020 to 2024, reaching a scale of 354 billion yuan, while the IP play food segment is projected to grow at a CAGR of 19.6%, reaching 115 billion yuan by 2024 [10][12] - The emotional consumption trend is driven by younger generations who prioritize identity recognition and emotional connection, leading to increased demand for IP products [15][12] Summary by Sections 1. IP Play as a Combination of IP, Food, and IP Gifts - IP play food products include collectible cards, stickers, badges, figurines, and edible toys, providing a unique experience that combines eating and playing [6][7] - Compared to regular IP food, IP play food can effectively enhance premium pricing through limited edition gifts that stimulate consumer collection desires [7][6] 2. Rapid Industry Growth and Fragmented Landscape - The Chinese IP food industry is expected to reach 431 billion yuan by 2025, with a projected CAGR of 18.5% from 2025 to 2029 [10][11] - The market is characterized by a fragmented competitive landscape, with the leading company, Jintian Animation, holding a market share of 7.6% in 2024 [3][60] 3. Supply Chain Management and IP Operation as Core Competencies - The core competitive advantage lies in supply chain control and effective IP operation, as the differentiation of snack products is low [33][34] - The cost of IP gifts is low, allowing for higher pricing of IP food products compared to non-IP snacks, with the impact of gift items potentially increasing prices by 2-3 times [52][33] 4. Domestic Brand Rise in a Fragmented Competitive Landscape - The IP food industry is experiencing a structural transformation, with domestic brands gaining prominence due to product innovation and cultural integration [60] - The top five revenue-generating companies in 2024 include Pepsi, Mars, Mondelez, Jintian Animation, and Nestle, with market shares of 5.6%, 2.9%, 2.7%, 2.5%, and 1.3% respectively [60]

Revenue Insights - In the first eleven months of 2025, the national general public budget revenue grew by 0.8% year-on-year, with November's revenue flat compared to the same month in 2024, marking a marginal decline from October's 3.2% growth[10] - Tax revenue increased by 1.8% year-on-year for the same period, with November's growth at 2.8%, down from 8.6% in October, primarily due to a higher base effect[12] - Corporate income tax revenue saw a significant decline, turning negative year-on-year, while individual income tax and value-added tax revenues performed relatively well[12] Expenditure Trends - General public budget expenditure grew by 1.4% year-on-year in the first eleven months of 2025, with November's expenditure declining by 3.7%, an improvement from October's 9.8% decline[15] - Central and local fiscal expenditures in November showed year-on-year growth rates of 4.9% and -5.1%, respectively, indicating a recovery in central spending despite a contraction in local spending[15] Government Fund Dynamics - Government fund budget revenue decreased by 4.9% year-on-year in the first eleven months, with November's revenue down by 15.8%, largely due to a slowdown in the real estate market[19] - Government fund budget expenditure increased by 13.7% year-on-year, with November's growth at 2.8%, a significant recovery from October's -38.2%[19] Policy Outlook - The fiscal policy remains tight, with moderate revenue growth placing constraints on expenditure, necessitating a focus on enhancing internal demand for revenue improvement[20] - The decision-makers plan to implement a more proactive fiscal policy in 2026, with an expected deficit rate of around 4%, emphasizing structural optimization and improved fund efficiency[20]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to the company with a target price of 75.92 CNY per share, based on a 26x PE valuation for 2026 [5][16]. Core Insights - The company's main business is stimulated by the rising silver prices, which have increased demand for high copper paste. The company has made strategic acquisitions to expand into the storage business, indicating clear long-term growth momentum [2][11]. - The silver price has surged significantly, reaching 14,812 CNY per kilogram by December 15, 2023, a 95.4% increase from the beginning of the year. This has accelerated the company's high copper paste product development and production [11]. - The company has successfully collaborated with downstream strategic customers, achieving stable supply of high copper paste products and is expected to complete GW-level production line commissioning in Q4 [11]. - The company has made acquisitions of Inmeng and Jiangsu Jingkai to create a closed-loop in the storage industry chain, enhancing its competitive advantages in application development, wafer testing, and packaging [11]. - The storage business is rapidly developing, focusing on the DRAM sector, with sales revenue of 269 million CNY achieved in the first three quarters of 2025. The market demand for storage continues to grow, supporting product prices [11]. Financial Summary - The company’s total revenue is projected to grow from 9,603 million CNY in 2023 to 20,158 million CNY by 2027, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 11.7% [4][15]. - Net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to fluctuate, with a peak of 616 million CNY in 2027 after a dip to 138 million CNY in 2025 [4][15]. - The earnings per share (EPS) are forecasted to be 2.65 CNY in 2023, dropping to 0.95 CNY in 2025, and then recovering to 4.24 CNY by 2027 [4][15]. - The return on equity (ROE) is projected to decline from 29.1% in 2023 to 7.6% in 2025, before rebounding to 22.6% in 2027 [4][15]. Market Data - The company has a market capitalization of 8,784 million CNY, with a current share price of 60.46 CNY, which is within a 52-week range of 35.67 to 74.61 CNY [6][5]. - The company’s total assets are expected to grow from 6,785 million CNY in 2023 to 12,191 million CNY by 2027, indicating a strong asset growth trajectory [12][15].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the industry [2] Core Insights - The AI industry is witnessing significant developments, including the establishment of the Agentic AI Foundation by OpenAI, Anthropic, and Block, aimed at providing neutral governance for open and interoperable AI infrastructure [5] - JEDEC is nearing completion of the SPHBM4 memory specification, which will have only 1/4 the I/O pins of standard HBM4 memory, allowing for higher operational frequencies and increased system memory capacity [6] - OpenAI has partnered with Disney to allow the Sora platform to generate videos featuring iconic characters, enhancing content creation capabilities [7] - Google DeepMind plans to establish its first automated laboratory in the UK by 2026, focusing on materials science research [8] - Adobe has integrated its Photoshop and other tools into ChatGPT, allowing users to edit images and documents through simple text prompts [9] - Google announced the development of AI glasses powered by Gemini technology, set to launch in 2026 [10] - Dell and OpenCSG have launched an integrated IT infrastructure solution aimed at smart startups, facilitating a transition to intelligent architectures [11] - Google introduced the Disco project, which transforms browser tabs into customized web applications using Gemini technology [12] - OpenAI released the GPT-5.2 model, touted as the most advanced model to date, with various functionalities tailored for different user needs [13] - Google has opened its Gemini Deep Research AI to developers, marking a significant step towards industrial application of AI research capabilities [14] - OpenAI's adult mode for ChatGPT is expected to launch in Q1 2026, focusing on age prediction capabilities [15] - Opera has launched its AI browser Neon, integrating AI chat functionalities directly into the browser interface [16] - Boom Supersonic has introduced the Superpower gas turbine system, derived from its supersonic engine technology, aimed at the generator market [17][18] - Rivian has unveiled its self-developed RAP1 autonomous driving processor, utilizing a 5nm process for enhanced performance [19] - Starcloud has achieved the first-ever training of a large language model in space, utilizing a satellite equipped with NVIDIA H100 GPUs [20] - NVIDIA and SK Hynix are collaborating on next-generation SSDs, aiming to enhance data transfer speeds by 8 to 10 times [21]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for Oracle (ORCL.N) [7][12] Core Insights - Oracle has significantly raised its FY2026 capital expenditure guidance by $15 billion to $50 billion, indicating potential bottlenecks in revenue realization due to data center construction progress [3][12] - The remaining performance obligations (RPO) for Oracle reached $523 billion, with a net increase of $68 billion quarter-over-quarter, including contracts from Meta and NVIDIA [12] - Oracle's revenue projections for FY2026 to FY2028 have been adjusted to $67 billion, $84 billion, and $128 billion respectively, with Non-GAAP net profits estimated at $21 billion, $24 billion, and $33 billion [12] Financial Summary - Revenue (in million USD): - FY2024: 52,961 - FY2025: 57,399 - FY2026E: 67,046 - FY2027E: 84,328 - FY2028E: 127,751 - Year-over-year growth rates: - FY2024: 6.0% - FY2025: 8.4% - FY2026E: 16.8% - FY2027E: 25.8% - FY2028E: 51.5% [5] - Non-GAAP net profit (in million USD): - FY2024: 15,709 - FY2025: 17,283 - FY2026E: 21,068 - FY2027E: 23,945 - FY2028E: 33,509 - Adjusted PE (diluted): - FY2026E: 25.7 [5][12] Market Data - Current price: $184.92 [7] - Market capitalization: $531,299 million [8] - 52-week stock price range: $122.82 - $328.33 [8]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a rating of "Accumulate" to the company with a target price of 15.00 CNY [6][12]. Core Views - The company aims to enhance its industrial chain layout and strengthen synergy effects through the acquisition of a 59.1816% stake in Hangtou Yuhua, which holds equity in five core enterprises in the airborne industry chain [2][12]. - The acquisition is valued at 202 million CNY, based on a third-party assessment of 342 million CNY for 100% of the stake, and is expected to be approved by the relevant authorities [12]. - The five target companies possess unique technical expertise, which will help the company to fill gaps in its industrial chain and foster new growth points [12]. Financial Summary - Total revenue is projected to be 29,007 million CNY in 2023, with a slight increase of 4.6% year-on-year. However, a significant decline of 17.7% is expected in 2024 [4]. - Net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to be 1,886 million CNY in 2023, reflecting a substantial increase of 39.6%, but a decrease of 44.8% is anticipated in 2024 [4]. - Earnings per share (EPS) is expected to be 0.39 CNY in 2023, dropping to 0.22 CNY in 2024, before gradually increasing to 0.36 CNY by 2027 [4][12]. Market Data - The company's market capitalization is approximately 62,083 million CNY, with a total share capital of 4,839 million shares [7]. - The stock has traded within a range of 10.17 CNY to 12.88 CNY over the past 52 weeks [7]. Financial Ratios - The return on equity (ROE) is projected to decline from 5.2% in 2023 to 2.8% in 2024, before gradually improving to 4.2% by 2027 [4][13]. - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is expected to be 32.53 in 2023, increasing to 58.96 in 2024, and then decreasing to 35.60 by 2027 [4][13].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a rating of "Accumulate" to the company with a target price of 9.36 CNY [6]. Core Views - The white chicken industry chain is experiencing persistent price weakness, but the company is continuously enhancing its capabilities in adversity. As the industry prices stabilize and recover, the company's performance is expected to show greater upward elasticity [2]. - The company is positioned as a leader in the domestic market, and the future development trends in the industry support a positive outlook for its earnings growth [12]. Financial Summary - The total revenue for 2023 is projected at 35,970 million CNY, with a decline to 32,545 million CNY in 2024, followed by a recovery to 40,649 million CNY in 2025 and further growth to 44,156 million CNY in 2026, and 47,519 million CNY in 2027 [12][13]. - The company’s gross margin for the poultry business was 2.1% in the first half of 2025, down from 2.8% for the entire year of 2024, but significantly improved from 1.0% in the first half of 2024 [12]. - The average price of chicken products in the first half of 2025 was 8,966 CNY/ton, lower than the annual average of 9,435 CNY/ton in 2024 [12]. Business Segments - The poultry segment is expected to generate revenues of 113.4 billion CNY in 2024, increasing to 136.6 billion CNY in 2025, and 152.6 billion CNY in 2026 [16]. - The feed business is projected to see revenues rise from 125.1 billion CNY in 2024 to 172.8 billion CNY in 2025, and 190.4 billion CNY in 2026 [16]. - The pig farming segment is expected to generate revenues of 33.2 billion CNY in 2024, with a slight decline to 34.3 billion CNY in 2025, before recovering to 37.9 billion CNY in 2027 [16]. Market Position - The company has maintained a strong market position by focusing on cost reduction and efficiency improvements in its poultry operations while actively expanding its market reach and optimizing marketing strategies [12]. - The company has ceased expansion in meat chicken farming temporarily due to sufficient industry supply, focusing instead on high-quality processing and premium market channels [12].

Group 1: Downstream Consumption - Signs of increased consumer sentiment are observed, with Shanghai Disneyland's congestion index rising by 9.1% week-on-week and 75.7% year-on-year, indicating improved tourism demand due to the implementation of autumn holidays in various regions [7][9] - Movie box office revenue for the week of December 8-14 reached 717 million yuan, reflecting a 48.5% week-on-week decline but an 87.7% year-on-year increase, suggesting a strong year-on-year performance despite a seasonal drop [7] - The real estate market continues to experience low sales, with the transaction area of commercial housing in 30 major cities down by 33.9% year-on-year, and second-hand housing transactions in key cities also declining by 34.6% [10][11] Group 2: Technology & Manufacturing - The electronic industry remains in a high-growth phase, driven by AI infrastructure investments, with DRAM memory prices for DDR4 and DDR5 averaging $50.1 and $26.2 respectively, showing a week-on-week increase of 7.8% for DDR4 [21][23] - The construction materials sector is experiencing weak demand, with rebar and hot-rolled coil prices reporting a week-on-week decline of 0.6% and 1.8% respectively, indicating a supply-demand imbalance [26][27] - Manufacturing activity is showing signs of improvement, with the operating rate for semi-steel and full-steel tires increasing by 0.7% and 0.6% respectively, although recruitment intentions among companies are slightly declining [37] Group 3: Upstream Resources - Coal prices have seen a significant decline, with the price of Q5500 thermal coal at Qinhuangdao port dropping by 5.1% week-on-week, attributed to stable supply and lack of unexpected demand [43][44] - Industrial metal prices are fluctuating at high levels, with copper and aluminum prices on the SHFE at 94,100 and 22,200 yuan per ton respectively, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 1.4% for copper [45][46] Group 4: Logistics and Mobility - Passenger transport demand has decreased seasonally, with the subway passenger volume in major cities down by 1.4% week-on-week, while the Baidu migration index fell by 4.2% [52][55] - Freight logistics demand is also declining, with highway truck traffic and railway freight volume down by 2.0% and 0.3% respectively, although express delivery volumes have shown slight recovery [56][59]