1. Report's Investment Rating for the Industry - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report [1][2] 2. Core View of the Report - The market has diverse sugar sources, and the spot price is weak. The market is expected to remain weak in the future, and attention should be paid to demand changes [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the futures main contract of sugar is 5337 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 34; the main contract position is 289,716 lots, with a month - on - month decrease of 27,587 [2] - The number of sugar warehouse receipts is 181, with a month - on - month increase of 181; the net long position of the top 20 futures positions is - 52,900 lots, with a month - on - month decrease of 3,536 [2] - The total forecast of effective sugar warehouse receipts is 1,490, with a month - on - month increase of 1,309 [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The estimated import processing price of Brazilian sugar (within quota) is 4,079 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 15; that of Thai sugar (within quota) is 4,127 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 16 [2] - The estimated import price of Brazilian sugar (out - of - quota, 50% tariff) is 5,168 yuan/ton; that of Thai sugar (out - of - quota, 50% tariff) is 5,231 yuan/ton [2] - The spot price of sugar in Kunming, Yunnan is 5,345 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 25; in Nanning, Guangxi is 5,410 yuan/ton, with no change; in Liuzhou, Guangxi is 5,485 yuan/ton, with no change [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The national sugar crop sown area is 1,480 thousand hectares, with a year - on - year increase of 60; the sown area of sugar cane in Guangxi is 840.33 thousand hectares, with a year - on - year increase of 5.24 [2] - The cumulative national sugar production is 1,116.21 million tons, with a month - on - month increase of 5.49; the cumulative sales of Guangxi cane sugar is 8.94 million tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 593.35 [2] - The cumulative production of Yunnan cane sugar is 4.48 million tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 237.4; the total Brazilian sugar exports are 330.2 million tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 90.3 [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The price difference between imported Brazilian sugar and the current price of Liuzhou sugar (within quota) is 1,240 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 16; that of Thai sugar (within quota) is 1,192 yuan/ton [2] - The price difference between imported Brazilian sugar and the current price of Liuzhou sugar (out - of - quota, 50% tariff) is 151 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 11; that of Thai sugar (out - of - quota, 50% tariff) is 88 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 11 [2] - The monthly import volume of sugar is 75 million tons, with a month - on - month increase of 20; the cumulative import volume is 390 million tons, with a month - on - month increase of 74 [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The monthly production of refined sugar is 88.3 million tons, with a month - on - month increase of 34.39; the monthly production of soft drinks is 1,096.2 million tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 495.5 [2] 3.6 Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for sugar is 8.81%, with a month - on - month decrease of 2.07; that of at - the - money put options is 8.81%, with a month - on - month decrease of 2.06 [2] - The 20 - day historical volatility of sugar is 6.72%, with a month - on - month increase of 0.03; the 60 - day historical volatility is 6.87%, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.01 [2] 3.7 Industry News - As of October 28, 2025, the non - commercial net short position of raw sugar futures was 167,419 lots, an increase of 27,018 lots from the previous week. The long position was 164,391 lots, a decrease of 957 lots from the previous week, and the short position was 331,810 lots, an increase of 26,061 lots from the previous week [2] - Brazil's sugar exports in November were 330.2 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.59%. The focus of the market is on the pressure on prices caused by the increase in production in the Northern Hemisphere, and the reduction of the sugar cane purchase price in Thailand also brings pressure to the international raw sugar market [2] 3.8 Industry Situation in China - This year's import quota is basically used up, but the import cost continues to decrease. Domestic sugar producers are worried that low - priced processed sugar next year will seize the market. The sugar - pressing speed in Guangxi is accelerating, leading to market competition [2] - As of now, 44 sugar mills in Guangxi have started production in the 25/26 crushing season, 21 less than the same period last year, with a daily sugar - cane crushing capacity of 346,000 tons, 175,500 tons less than the same period last year. 12 sugar mills in Yunnan have started production, 6 more than the same period last year [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core View of the Report - The apple futures price will continue to operate at a high level in the short term due to the approaching Christmas and New Year holidays, which support the holiday demand, despite the light trading atmosphere in the apple market and the impact of citrus fruits [2] Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the apple futures main contract is 9,506 yuan/ton, and the main contract position is 126,173 lots, with an increase of 1,466 lots compared to the previous period; the net buying volume of the top 20 futures positions is 5,007 lots, a decrease of 1,983 lots [2] Spot Market - The spot prices of apples in Gansu Jingning, Shandong Yiyuan, Shaanxi Luochuan, and Shandong Yantai Qixia remain unchanged [2] Upstream Situation - The annual apple output in China is 5,128.51 million tons, an increase of 168.34 million tons; the weekly fruit wholesale price of apples is 9.38 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.02 yuan/kg; the average weekly wholesale price of Fuji apples is 9.07 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.01 yuan/kg; the total weekly inventory of apple cold storage in China is 763.51 million tons, a decrease of 3.24 million tons; the weekly apple storage capacity ratio in Shandong is 0.58, and that in Shaanxi is 0.54; the monthly export volume of apples is 80,000 tons, an increase of 10,000 tons [2] Industry Situation - The monthly import value of fresh, dried fruits and nuts decreases by 5.8%; the monthly year-on-year export value of apples decreases by 14.3%; the weekly profit of first- and second-grade paper-bagged apple 80 storage merchants is 0 yuan/jin [2] Downstream Situation - The weekly fruit wholesale prices of duck pears, bananas, and watermelons change, and the morning average daily arrival vehicle volumes at fruit wholesale markets in Guangdong also change [2] Option Market - The implied volatility of at-the-money call and put options for apples is 22.94%, with a decrease of 0.3% [2] Industry News - The inventory trading in apple production areas is still light, with few inquiries and viewings in cold storage, and most of the small-volume transactions are low-priced goods; the overall transaction of late Fuji apples remains light, and the order volume from merchants in the production areas is limited; the inventory in the main apple production areas decreases, and the inventory ratio in Shandong and Shaanxi decreases; the shipment in the Shandong production area is slow, and the inventory trading is limited; the willingness of fruit farmers in the Shaanxi production area to sell is still not high; the arrival volume in the sales area market increases slightly, the trading atmosphere is still light, and citrus fruits impact the apple market [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core View of the Report - The acquisition of grey jujubes in Xinjiang's main production areas is nearing completion, with an overall progress of about 90%. As of December 4, 2025, the physical inventory of 36 sample points of jujubes this week was 13,910 tons, an increase of 3,062 tons from last week, a month-on-month increase of 28.23% and a year-on-year increase of 135.16%. The inventory at sample points has increased. This week, the acquisition progress of jujubes in the Third Agricultural Division of Xinjiang and Maigaiti area has accelerated, with high procurement enthusiasm from enterprises and merchants, and a significant increase in the number of signed orders. The product prices in the sales areas have also stabilized. With the increase in downstream procurement, some holders have tentatively adjusted their quotes slightly. In the short term, prices will mainly operate at a low level. Attention should be paid to the actual sales situation. If the actual demand improves, the probability of price rebound will increase [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract for jujubes was 9,180 yuan/ton, and the position of the main contract was 70,812 lots, a decrease of 8,380 lots compared to the previous period. The net long position of the top 20 futures holders was -3,675 lots, and the number of warehouse receipts was 701, an increase of 42. The total effective warehouse receipt forecast for jujubes was 781 [2] 现货市场 - The prices of jujube products in different regions remained stable. For example, the wholesale price of first-class grey jujubes in Hebei was 4.25 yuan/jin, and in Henan it was 4.3 yuan/jin. The prices of special-grade jujubes in different regions were also stable, such as 9.8 yuan/kg in Henan, 9.74 yuan/kg in Hebei, and 10.8 yuan/kg in Guangdong [2] Upstream Market - The annual jujube output was 318.7 million tons, and the planting area was 1.993 million hectares, a decrease of 41,000 hectares [2] Industry Situation - The national jujube inventory this week was 13,910 tons, an increase of 3,062 tons. The monthly jujube export volume was 2,205,220 kilograms, a decrease of 78,451 kilograms. The cumulative monthly jujube export volume was 25,753,622 kilograms [2] Downstream Situation - The cumulative quarterly sales volume of jujubes by Hao Xiang Ni was 36,480.43 tons, and the cumulative quarterly year-on-year production increase was 1.47%, a decrease of 34.59 percentage points [2] Industry News - The acquisition of grey jujubes in Xinjiang's production areas is in the final stage. Only some sellers with average quality and those holding out for higher prices remain. The mainstream prices for general jujubes in different regions are as follows: Aksu 4.80 - 5.20 yuan/kg, Alar 5.00 - 6.00 yuan/kg, Kashgar 6.00 - 6.50 yuan/kg, and Maigaiti 6.00 - 6.30 yuan/kg. The acquisition in Ruoqiang, Hotan, and Qiemo has ended, and raw material acquisition in the production areas follows the principle of high quality at a high price [2]

| 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 项目 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货盘面 | T主力收盘价 | 107.910 | 0.02% T主力成交量 | 98368 | -2961↓ | | | TF主力收盘价 | 105.745 | -0.01% TF主力成交量 | 72291 | -7272↓ | | | TS主力收盘价 | 102.412 | 0% TS主力成交量 | 37890 | 6997↑ | | | TL主力收盘价 | 112.240 | -0.29% TL主力成交量 | 175328 | 11652↑ | | 期货价差 | TL2603-2512价差 | -0.06 | +0.16↑ T03-TL03价差 | -4.33 | 0.31↑ | | | T2603-2512价差 | -0.20 | -0.01↓ TF03-T03价差 | -2.16 | -0.05↓ | | | TF2603-2512价差 | 0.02 | -0.02↓ TS03-T03价差 | -5.50 | -0.05↓ | | | TS26 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The butadiene rubber market this week was mainly affected by the news of natural rubber and butadiene. With no clear positive signs in the supply - demand fundamentals, downstream continuous price - pressing led to weak trading performance. The inventory of sample producers increased, and the inventory of sample trading enterprises decreased slightly. The BR2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 10,250 - 10,700 in the short term [2]. - As the production of previously overhauled enterprises gradually resumes to normal levels, the capacity utilization rate of domestic tire enterprises increased last week. However, the shipment pace of each tire enterprise was slow, and short - term production control behavior still exists, so the increase in the overall capacity utilization rate is expected to be limited [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract of synthetic rubber was 10,515 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 105 yuan/ton; the position of the main contract was 27,454, a week - on - week decrease of 2,743; the 1 - 2 spread of synthetic rubber was - 15 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 10 yuan/ton; the total warehouse receipt quantity of butadiene rubber was 4,340 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1,000 tons [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The mainstream price of BR9000 from Qilu Petrochemical in Shandong was 10,450 yuan/ton; the mainstream price of BR9000 from Daqing Petrochemical in Shandong was 10,400 yuan/ton; the mainstream price of BR9000 from Daqing Petrochemical in Shanghai was 10,450 yuan/ton; the mainstream price of BR9000 from Maoming Petrochemical in Guangdong was 10,700 yuan/ton. The basis of synthetic rubber was - 15 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 55 yuan/ton [2]. - Brent crude oil was 63.75 US dollars/barrel, a week - on - week increase of 0.49 US dollars/barrel; WTI crude oil was 60.08 US dollars/barrel; Northeast Asian ethylene price was 745 US dollars/ton; Naphtha CFR Japan was 559.75 US dollars/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 2.25 US dollars/ton; the intermediate price of butadiene CFR China was 850 US dollars/ton; the mainstream market price of butadiene in Shandong was 7,200 yuan/ton [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The weekly capacity of butadiene was 15.94 million tons/week, with a capacity utilization rate of 70.4%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.57 percentage points; the port inventory of butadiene was 41,100 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 6,200 tons; the operating rate of Shandong local refinery atmospheric and vacuum distillation was 56.11%, a week - on - week increase of 1.12 percentage points [2]. - The monthly output of butadiene rubber was 13.01 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.75 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5.44%, and a year - on - year increase of 8.43%. The capacity utilization rate of butadiene rubber was 73.53%, a week - on - week increase of 3.34 percentage points; the production profit of butadiene rubber was 484 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 50 yuan/ton [2]. - The social inventory of butadiene rubber was 3.23 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.01 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.34%; the producer inventory of butadiene rubber was 27,100 tons, a week - on - week increase of 200 tons; the trader inventory of butadiene rubber was 5,230 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 310 tons [2]. 3.4 Downstream Situation - The operating rate of domestic semi - steel tires was 70.92%, a week - on - week increase of 1.73 percentage points; the operating rate of domestic all - steel tires was 63.5%, a week - on - week increase of 0.17 percentage points [2]. - The monthly output of all - steel tires was 13.01 million pieces, a month - on - month increase of 590,000 pieces; the monthly output of semi - steel tires was 58.31 million pieces, a month - on - month increase of 6.63 million pieces [2]. - The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong were 39.51 days, a week - on - week decrease of 0.44 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong were 44.95 days, a week - on - week decrease of 0.28 days [2]. 3.5 Industry News - As of December 4, the capacity utilization rate of Chinese semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 68.33%, a week - on - week increase of 2.33 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 10.59 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of Chinese all - steel tire sample enterprises was 64%, a week - on - week increase of 1.25 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 4.87 percentage points. The production of overhauled sample enterprises gradually resumed during the week, driving up the overall capacity utilization rate [2]. - In November, the domestic output of butadiene rubber was 13.01 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.75 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5.44% and a year - on - year increase of 8.43%. The capacity utilization rate of butadiene rubber in November was 68.13%, a month - on - month decrease of 3.27 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 0.53 percentage points [2]. - As of December 4, the domestic inventory of butadiene rubber was 3.23 million tons, a decrease of 0.01 million tons from the previous period, a week - on - week decrease of 0.34%. Some tight - supply resources were replenished this week, but downstream continuous price - pressing led to weak trading performance [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided regarding the report industry investment rating 2. Core Viewpoints - The total inventory at Qingdao Port continues to accumulate, with both bonded and general trade warehouses showing inventory accumulation, and the overall inventory accumulation rate narrowing compared to the previous period. Overseas shipments to the port remain at a high level, rubber prices are fluctuating downward, tire companies are stocking up moderately at low prices according to their rigid needs, and the overall procurement sentiment has slightly improved. The warehouse outbound volume has increased slightly month - on - month, but it is still in the inventory accumulation cycle. In terms of demand, as the production of the previously overhauled enterprises gradually returns to the normal level, the capacity utilization rate of domestic tire enterprises has increased month - on - month, but the shipment pace of each tire enterprise is slow, and short - term production control behavior still exists, so the increase in the overall capacity utilization rate is expected to be limited. The ru2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 14,900 - 15,500 in the short term, and the nr2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 11,800 - 12,200 in the short term [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract of Shanghai rubber is 15,065 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month change of 0; the 1 - 5 spread of Shanghai rubber is 25 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month change of - 5; the closing price of the main contract of 20 - number rubber is 12,080 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month change of 35; the 1 - 2 spread of 20 - number rubber is - 15 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month change of - 20. The spread between Shanghai rubber and 20 - number rubber is 3,000 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month change of - 20. The holding volume of the main contract of Shanghai rubber is 123,959 lots, with a month - on - month increase of 1,189; the holding volume of the main contract of 20 - number rubber is 29,787 lots, with a month - on - month decrease of 3,914. The net holding of the top 20 in Shanghai rubber is - 29,217, with a month - on - month decrease of 20; the net holding of the top 20 in 20 - number rubber is - 6,229, with a month - on - month increase of 460. The warehouse receipts of Shanghai rubber are 46,030 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 500; the warehouse receipts of 20 - number rubber are 57,154 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 201 [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The price of state - owned whole - latex in the Shanghai market is 14,700 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month change of 0; the price of Vietnamese 3L in the Shanghai market is 15,150 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month change of 0. The price of Thai standard STR20 is 1,815 US dollars/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 5; the price of Malaysian standard SMR20 is 1,810 US dollars/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 5. The price of Thai RMB - denominated mixed rubber is 14,380 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 30; the price of Malaysian RMB - denominated mixed rubber is 14,330 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 30. The price of Qilu Petrochemical's styrene - butadiene 1502 is 11,000 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month change of 0; the price of Qilu Petrochemical's cis - butadiene BR9000 is 10,600 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month change of 0. The basis of Shanghai rubber is - 365 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month change of 0; the basis of non - standard products of the main contract of Shanghai rubber is - 685 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 5. The price of 20 - number rubber in the Qingdao market is 12,806 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 74; the basis of the main contract of 20 - number rubber is 741 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 54 [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The market reference price of Thai raw rubber (smoked sheets) is 59 Thai baht/kg, with a month - on - month change of 0; the market reference price of Thai raw rubber (sheets) is 55.75 Thai baht/kg, with a month - on - month decrease of 1.4; the market reference price of Thai raw rubber (glue) is 55 Thai baht/kg, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.5; the market reference price of Thai raw rubber (cup lumps) is 52.95 Thai baht/kg, with a month - on - month increase of 0.85. The theoretical production profit of RSS3 is 125 US dollars/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 23.2; the theoretical production profit of STR20 is 43.2 US dollars/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 70.2. The monthly import volume of technically classified natural rubber is 126,100 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 3,500 tons; the monthly import volume of mixed rubber is 256,400 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 61,100 tons [2] 3.4 Downstream Situation - The operating rate of all - steel tires is 63.5% (weekly), with a month - on - month increase of 0.17 percentage points; the operating rate of semi - steel tires is 70.92% (weekly), with a month - on - month increase of 1.73 percentage points. The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the period are 39.51 days (weekly), with a month - on - month decrease of 0.44 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the period are 44.95 days (weekly), with a month - on - month decrease of 0.28 days. The monthly output of all - steel tires is 13.01 million pieces, with a month - on - month increase of 590,000 pieces; the monthly output of semi - steel tires is 58.31 million pieces, with a month - on - month increase of 6.63 million pieces [2] 3.5 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of the underlying asset is 13.48% (daily), with a month - on - month increase of 0.28 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility of the underlying asset is 16.55% (daily), with a month - on - month increase of 0.1 percentage points. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options is 19.34% (daily), with a month - on - month decrease of 0.66 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 19.33% (daily), with a month - on - month decrease of 0.66 percentage points [2] 3.6 Industry News - In November 2025, China's heavy - truck market sold about 100,000 vehicles (wholesale, including exports and new energy), a month - on - month decrease of about 6% compared with October this year, and a significant year - on - year increase of about 46% compared with 68,500 vehicles in the same period last year. From January to November this year, the cumulative sales of China's heavy - truck market exceeded 1 million, reaching 1.03 million, a year - on - year increase of about 26%. As of December 7, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 488,700 tons, a month - on - month increase of 7,200 tons, with an increase rate of 1.49%. The bonded area inventory was 73,900 tons, an increase rate of 2.08%; the general trade inventory was 414,800 tons, an increase rate of 1.38%. As of December 4, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 68.33%, a month - on - month increase of 2.33 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 10.59 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of China's all - steel tire sample enterprises was 64%, a month - on - month increase of 1.25 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 4.87 percentage points [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The domestic cotton market has sufficient supply as the inspection volume of new cotton has exceeded 4.6 million tons and port cotton stocks remain high. The import quota for this year is almost used up, and the export volume of RMB is limited, resulting in more imports than exports at cotton ports. The inventory at major import cotton ports has reached a five - month high. - The downstream demand is relatively differentiated. The demand for high - count yarn has improved, which boosts the cotton market to some extent. Overall, although there is a marginal improvement in demand, the supply is still abundant, limiting the rebound of cotton prices. Attention should be paid to new driving factors in the later stage. [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - Zhengzhou cotton main contract closing price is 13,750 yuan/ton (unchanged), and cotton yarn main contract closing price is 19,980 yuan/ton (down 25 yuan/ton). - Cotton futures top 20 net positions are - 130,475 hands (up 300 hands), and cotton yarn futures top 20 net positions are - 318 hands (up 39 hands). - Cotton main contract positions are 489,062 hands (down 8,717 hands), and cotton yarn main contract positions are 16,063 hands (up 745 hands). - Cotton warehouse receipts are 2,753 sheets (up 44 sheets), and cotton yarn warehouse receipts are 13 sheets (up 1 sheet). - China Cotton Price Index (CCIndex:3128B) is 15,009 yuan/ton (down 13 yuan/ton), and China Yarn Price Index (pure cotton carded yarn 32 - count) is 20,800 yuan/ton (up 30 yuan/ton). [2] 现货市场 - China's imported cotton price index (FCIndexM:1% tariff) is 12,853 yuan/ton (down 67 yuan/ton), and the arrival price of imported cotton yarn price index (pure cotton carded yarn 32 - count) is 21,053 yuan/ton (up 74 yuan/ton). - China's imported cotton price index (FCIndexM: sliding - duty tax) is 13,880 yuan/ton (down 48 yuan/ton), and the arrival price of imported cotton yarn price index (pure cotton combed yarn 32 - count) is 22,227 yuan/ton (down 9 yuan/ton). [2] Upstream Situation - The national cotton sown area is 2,838.3 thousand hectares (up 48.3 thousand hectares), and the national cotton output is 6.16 million tons (up 0.54 million tons). [2] Industrial Situation - The cotton - yarn price difference is 5,791 yuan/ton (up 43 yuan/ton), and the national industrial inventory of cotton is 850,000 tons (up 65,000 tons). - The monthly import volume of cotton is 90,000 tons (down 10,000 tons), and the monthly import volume of cotton yarn is 140,000 tons (up 10,000 tons). - The daily profit of imported cotton is 1,142 yuan/ton (up 72 yuan/ton), and the national commercial inventory of cotton is 2.9306 million tons (up 1.9089 million tons). [2] Downstream Situation - The inventory days of yarn are 26.12 days (up 1.27 days), and the inventory days of grey cloth are 31.97 days (up 0.85 days). - The monthly output of cloth is 2.62 billion meters (down 0.18 billion meters), and the monthly output of yarn is 2.001 million tons (down 0.073 million tons). - The monthly export value of clothing and clothing accessories is 110,034,804,300 US dollars (down 14,497,665,700 US dollars), and the monthly export value of textile yarns, fabrics and products is 112,584,189,200 US dollars (down 7,080,970,800 US dollars). [2] Option Market - The implied volatility of cotton at - the - money call options is 7.42% (down 4.92%), and the implied volatility of cotton at - the - money put options is 7.42% (down 4.92%). - The 20 - day historical volatility of cotton is 5.78% (up 0.07%), and the 60 - day historical volatility of cotton is 6.64% (up 0.01%). [2] Industry News - The national commercial inventory of cotton is increasing. As of December 5, 2025, the total commercial inventory of cotton is 4.465 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 285,600 tons (a 6.83% increase). Among them, the commercial inventory of cotton in Xinjiang is 3.8859 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 269,500 tons (a 7.45% increase), and the commercial inventory of cotton in the inland area is 191,500 tons, a week - on - week increase of 8,800 tons (a 4.82% increase). - According to the USDA report, from October 17 - 23, 2025, the net export signing volume of US upland cotton for the 2025/26 season is 30,100 tons, a 24.4% decrease from the previous week and a 22.9% decrease from the average of the previous four weeks. The shipment volume of US upland cotton for the 2025/26 season is 39,600 tons, a 9.4% increase from the previous week and a 21.5% increase from the average of the previous four weeks. [2]

热轧卷板产业链日报 2025/12/8 研究员: 蔡跃辉 期货从业资格号F0251444 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0013101 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任何保证，据此投资，责任 自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任 何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引 用、删节和修改。 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | HC 主力合约收盘价(元/吨) | 3,291 | -29↓ HC 主力合约持仓量(手) | 1078676 | +11932↑ | | | HC 合约前20名净持仓(手) | -29,899 | +31899↑ HC1-5合约价差(元/吨) | -1 | +7↑ | | | HC 上期所仓单日报( ...

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Last week, methanol port inventories decreased slightly. This week, with a high volume of unplanned foreign vessels expected to arrive and a potential shutdown of an olefin plant in East China, import demand may weaken, and port methanol inventories are expected to increase. The actual situation depends on the unloading of foreign vessels [2]. - Last week, the load of Qinghai Salt Lake olefin plant increased, leading to an overall rise in the olefin industry's operation rate. However, Ningbo Fude is expected to undergo maintenance, which may cause the overall operation rate to decline [2]. - The MA2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 2030 - 2130 in the short - term [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main methanol contract is 2089 yuan/ton, up 12 yuan/ton compared to the previous period; the 1 - 5 spread is - 88 yuan/ton, up 6 yuan/ton [2]. - The main contract's open interest is 802,701 lots, a decrease of 69,391 lots; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 164,139 lots [2]. - The number of warehouse receipts is 8,722, an increase of 1,146 [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The price in Jiangsu Taicang is 2070 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan/ton; the price in Inner Mongolia is 2007.5 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The East - Northwest price difference is 67.5 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan/ton; the basis of the Zhengzhou methanol main contract is - 19 yuan/ton, down 17 yuan/ton [2]. - The CFR price at the main Chinese port is 241 US dollars/ton, down 4 US dollars/ton; the CFR price in Southeast Asia is 317 US dollars/ton, unchanged [2]. - The FOB price in Rotterdam is 260 euros/ton, unchanged; the price difference between the main Chinese port and Southeast Asia is - 76 US dollars/ton, down 4 US dollars/ton [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The price of NYMEX natural gas is 5.34 US dollars/million British thermal units, up 0.27 US dollars/million British thermal units [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The inventory in East China ports is 93.88 tons, an increase of 0.13 tons; the inventory in South China ports is 41.06 tons, a decrease of 1.54 tons [2]. - The methanol import profit is 8.73 yuan/ton, down 1.29 yuan/ton; the monthly import volume is 161.26 tons, an increase of 18.57 tons [2]. - The inventory of inland enterprises is 361,500 tons, a decrease of 12,200 tons; the methanol enterprise operation rate is 89.09%, unchanged [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The formaldehyde operation rate is 42.91%, down 0.07%; the dimethyl ether operation rate is 7.88%, unchanged [2]. - The acetic acid operation rate is 69.62%, down 3.44%; the MTBE operation rate is 69.97%, unchanged [2]. - The olefin operation rate is 90.82%, up 0.89%; the methanol - to - olefin disk profit is - 792 yuan/ton, down 48 yuan/ton [2]. 3.6 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of methanol is 20.19%, up 0.82%; the 40 - day historical volatility is 20.25%, up 0.2% [2]. - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options is 18.93%, up 0.35%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 18.92%, up 0.33% [2]. 3.7 Industry News - As of December 3, the inventory of Chinese methanol sample production enterprises was 36.15 tons, a decrease of 1.22 tons from the previous period, a 3.26% decrease; the orders to be delivered by sample enterprises were 23.97 tons, an increase of 0.90 tons from the previous period, a 3.90% increase [2]. - As of December 3, the total methanol port inventory in China was 134.94 tons, a decrease of 1.41 tons from the previous data. East China saw inventory accumulation, while South China saw inventory reduction [2]. - As of December 4, the domestic methanol - to - olefin plant capacity utilization rate was 91.78%, a 0.88% increase from the previous period. The load of Qinghai Salt Lake olefin plant increased, leading to an overall rise in the industry's operation rate [2].

| 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | JM主力合约收盘价（日，元/吨） | 1093.50 | -46.50↓ J主力合约收盘价（日，元/吨） | 1537.00 | -48.00↓ | | | JM期货合约持仓量（日，手） | 844614.00 | -8806.00↓ J期货合约持仓量（日，手） | 47647.00 | +2576.00↑ | | | 焦煤前20名合约净持仓（日，手） | -93723.00 | +17057.00↑ 焦炭前20名合约净持仓（日，手） | -380.00 | +133.00↑ | | | JM5-1月合约价差（日，元/吨） | 91.00 | +7.00↑ J5-1月合约价差（日，元/吨） | 153.50 | +4.50↑ | | | 焦煤仓单（日，张） | 300.00 | +300.00↑ 焦炭仓单（日，张） | 2070.00 | 0.00 | | | 干其毛都蒙5原煤（日，元/吨） | 988.00 | 0.00 唐山一级冶金 ...