| 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 纯碱主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) 纯碱与玻璃价差(日,元/吨) | 1158 169 | -24 玻璃主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) -4 纯碱主力合约持仓量(日,手) | 989 1330158 | -20 -15566 | | | 玻璃主力合约持仓量(日,手) | 1943651 | -46850 纯碱前20名净持仓 | -255769 | 7405 | | 期货市场 | 玻璃前20名净持仓 | -333971 | -8730 纯碱交易所仓单(日,吨) | 0 | 0 | | | 玻璃交易所仓单(日,吨) | 207 | -2 纯碱基差(日,元/吨) | -27 | 12 | | | 玻璃基差 | 11 | 20 1月-5月玻璃合约 | -130 | 0 | | | 1月-5月纯碱合约 | -74 | 1 | | | | | 华北重碱(日,元/吨) | 1130 | -25 华中重碱(日,元/吨) | 1300 | 0 | | 现货市场 | 华 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - On November 20, the JM2601 contract of coking coal closed at 1113.5, down 3.17%. The spot price of Tangshan Mongolian No. 5 coking coal was 1550, equivalent to 1330 on the futures market. The macro - situation shows that the NDRC issued a notice on ensuring the supply of thermal coal in 2026, weakening the market expectation. Fundamentally, the capacity utilization rate of mines has increased for two consecutive weeks, and the clean coal inventory of coal washing plants has increased for three consecutive weeks. The total inventory has a seasonal upward trend. Technically, the daily K - line is below the 20 - day and 60 - day moving averages, and the short - term trend is expected to be weak and volatile [2]. - On November 20, the J2601 contract of coke closed at 1633.5, down 0.70%. The fourth round of price increase for coke in the spot market has been implemented. In the macro - aspect, China's crude steel output in October was 7199.7 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 12.1%; the cumulative crude steel output from January to October was 81787.4 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3.9%. Fundamentally, on the demand side, the current pig iron output is 236.88 million tons, an increase of 2.66 million tons, and the total coke inventory is relatively high compared to the same period. In terms of profit, the average profit per ton of coke for 30 independent coking plants nationwide is - 34 yuan/ton. Technically, the daily K - line is below the 20 - day and 60 - day moving averages, and the short - term trend is expected to be weak and volatile [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the JM main contract was 1113.50 yuan/ton, down 26.00; the closing price of the J main contract was 1633.50 yuan/ton, down 5.50. The JM futures contract position was 912017.00 hands, down 2263.00; the J futures contract position was 49628.00 hands, up 601.00. The net position of the top 20 JM contracts was - 113822.00 hands, up 14420.00; the net position of the top 20 J contracts was - 1682.00 hands, up 469.00. The JM5 - 1 month contract spread was 69.00 yuan/ton, down 2.00; the J5 - 1 month contract spread was 150.00 yuan/ton, down 6.50. The coking coal warehouse receipts were 0.00, down 300.00; the coke warehouse receipts were - 12.00 [2]. Spot Market - The price of Russian prime coking coal forward spot (CFR) was 162.50 US dollars/wet ton, unchanged; the price of Rizhao Port quasi - first - class metallurgical coke was 1670.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Jingtang Port Australian imported prime coking coal was 1580.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Jingtang Port Shanxi - produced prime coking coal was 1780.00 yuan/ton, down 80.00; the price of medium - sulfur prime coking coal in Lingshi, Jinzhong, Shanxi was 1610.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; the ex - factory price of coking coal produced in Wuhai, Inner Mongolia was 1400.00 yuan/ton, unchanged. The JM main contract basis was 496.50 yuan/ton, up 26.00; the J main contract basis was 251.50 yuan/ton, up 5.50 [2]. Upstream Situation - The clean coal output of 314 independent coal washing plants was 27.60 million tons, up 0.20; the clean coal inventory was 302.80 million tons, up 2.00. The capacity utilization rate of 314 independent coal washing plants was 0.38%, unchanged. The monthly raw coal output was 40675.00 million tons, down 475.50; the monthly coal and lignite import volume was 4174.00 million tons, down 426.00. The daily average raw coal output of 523 coking coal mines was 193.40 million tons, up 1.50. The inventory of imported coking coal at 16 ports was 488.20 million tons, down 39.18; the inventory of coke at 18 ports was 259.50 million tons, down 3.01. The total coking coal inventory of independent coking enterprises was 1068.97 million tons, down 1.05; the coke inventory was 58.15 million tons, down 0.15. The coking coal inventory of 247 steel mills nationwide was 790.17 million tons, up 2.87; the coke inventory was 622.40 million tons, down 4.24. The available days of coking coal for independent coking enterprises were 12.87 days, up 0.03; the available days of coke for 247 sample steel mills were 11.06 days, down 0.01 [2]. Industry Situation - The monthly import volume of coking coal was 1059.32 million tons, down 33.04; the monthly export volume of coke and semi - coke was 73.00 million tons, up 19.00. The monthly coking coal output was 3975.92 million tons, up 279.06. The capacity utilization rate of independent coking enterprises was 71.64%, down 0.67. The average profit per ton of coke for independent coking plants was - 34.00 yuan/ton, down 12.00. The monthly coke output was 4189.60 million tons, down 66.00 [2]. Downstream Situation - The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills nationwide was 82.79%, down 0.36; the blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate was 88.82%, up 1.03. The monthly crude steel output was 7199.70 million tons, down 149.31 [2].

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The Fed's meeting minutes showed serious differences among policymakers on whether to cut interest rates in December, with more people thinking it's not appropriate, and the probability of an interest rate cut this year is expected to decline [3] - Indonesia's RKAB quota this year is relatively loose, but the approval period will be shortened to 1 year next year, increasing raw material supply uncertainty; Philippine nickel ore supply is entering the rainy season with lower ore grades, and domestic nickel ore inventories are at a low level compared to the same period last year [3] - Newly invested electrolytic nickel projects are being put into production slowly. Due to low nickel prices and cost - side pressures, some smelters are reducing production at a loss, so the growth of refined nickel production is expected to be limited [3] - In the demand side, stainless steel mills are not in a strong peak season, but with the decline of nickel - iron costs, steel mill profits are improving, and production volume is expected to increase; new energy vehicle production and sales continue to climb, and ternary batteries contribute a small incremental demand [3] - Domestic nickel inventories continue to grow, the market mainly purchases on demand, and spot premiums are rising; overseas LME inventories are also increasing. Nickel prices are expected to fluctuate weakly [3] - Technically, positions are increasing while prices are adjusting, and the short - selling atmosphere is relatively strong. Short - term Shanghai nickel is expected to fluctuate and adjust, and attention should be paid to the MA5 pressure [3][4] Group 3: Summary by Directory Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai nickel is 115,380 yuan/ton, a decrease of 270 yuan; the 12 - 01 contract spread is - 130 yuan/ton, an increase of 50 yuan [3] - The price of LME 3 - month nickel is $14,640/ton, a decrease of $5; the position of the main contract of Shanghai nickel is 152,848 lots, an increase of 67,836 lots [3] - The net long position of the top 20 futures holders of Shanghai nickel is - 29,606 lots, an increase of 2,483 lots; LME nickel inventory is 255,846 tons, a decrease of 1,986 tons [3] - The inventory of nickel on the Shanghai Futures Exchange is 40,573 tons, an increase of 3,386 tons; the total cancelled warrants of LME nickel is 11,394 tons, a decrease of 2,238 tons [3] - The warehouse receipt quantity of Shanghai nickel is 34,079 tons, a decrease of 552 tons [3] Spot Market - The spot price of SMM 1 nickel is 118,200 yuan/ton, an increase of 600 yuan; the average spot price of 1 nickel plate in Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals is 118,300 yuan/ton, an increase of 700 yuan [3] - The CIF (bill of lading) price of Shanghai electrolytic nickel is $85/ton, unchanged; the bonded warehouse (warehouse receipt) price of Shanghai electrolytic nickel is $85/ton, unchanged [3] - The average price of battery - grade nickel sulfate is 27,500 yuan/ton, unchanged; the basis of the NI main contract is 2,820 yuan/ton, an increase of 870 yuan [3] - The LME nickel (spot/three - month) premium is - $197.66/ton, an increase of $2.2 [3] Upstream Situation - The import volume of nickel ore is 6.1145 million tons, a decrease of 0.2322 million tons; the total port inventory of nickel ore is 15.0949 million tons, an increase of 0.2783 million tons [3] - The average import unit price of nickel ore is $56.72/ton, a decrease of $4.61; the tax - included price of Indonesian laterite nickel ore with 1.8% Ni is $41.71/wet ton, unchanged [3] Industry Situation - The electrolytic nickel production is 29,430 tons, an increase of 1,120 tons; the total nickel - iron production is 21,700 metal tons, a decrease of 300 metal tons [3] - The import volume of refined nickel and alloys is 28,570.87 tons, an increase of 4,144.03 tons; the import volume of nickel - iron is 1.0853 million tons, an increase of 0.2112 million tons [3] Downstream Situation - The production of 300 - series stainless steel is 1.7627 million tons, an increase of 0.0248 million tons; the total inventory of 300 - series stainless steel is 0.5912 million tons, an increase of 0.0204 million tons [3] Industry News - The Fed's meeting minutes showed serious differences among policymakers on whether to cut interest rates in December, and most agreed to stop the quantitative tightening (QT) of reducing the balance sheet [3] - The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics will not release the October non - farm payrolls report, and the 11 - month report will be released on December 16, later than the original plan and after the Fed's last meeting this year [3]

| 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 郑州尿素主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 1665 | 2 郑州尿素1-5价差(日,元/吨) | -70 | 2 | | | 郑州尿素主力合约持仓量(日,手) | 245423 | -3667 郑州尿素前20名净持仓 | -31813 | 1338 | | | 郑州尿素交易所仓单(日,张) | 7183 | 0 | | | | 现货市场 | 河北(日,元/吨) | 1640 | 10 河南(日,元/吨) | 1630 | 20 | | | 江苏(日,元/吨) | 1610 | 10 山东(日,元/吨) | 1640 | 10 | | | 安徽(日,元/吨) | 1620 | 20 郑州尿素主力合约基差(日,元/吨) | -25 | 8 | | | FOB波罗的海(日,美元/吨) | 367.5 | 0 FOB中国主港(日,美元/吨) | 400 | 0 | | 产业情况 | 港口库存(周,万吨) | 8.2 | 0.3 企业库存(周,万 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The short - term port reverse - flow to the mainland arbitrage space may remain continuously open, the import apparent demand may continue to be high, and the port methanol inventory is expected to change little. The high - inventory state may continue to suppress the port methanol market, and the unloading speed of foreign vessels needs to be focused on. The olefin industry's start - up rate increased slightly this week, and it is expected to remain stable next week. The MA2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 1970 - 2050 in the short term [2] Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main methanol contract is 2016 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 3; the 1 - 5 spread of methanol is - 137 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 192.03. The main contract's open interest is 1,427,833 lots, a decrease of 22,788; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 191,775 lots. The number of warehouse receipts is 6,581, a decrease of 584 [2] Spot Market - The price in Jiangsu Taicang is 1,985 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price in Inner Mongolia is 1,960 yuan/ton, an increase of 5. The price difference between East China and Northwest China is 25 yuan/ton, a decrease of 15; the basis of the main Zhengzhou methanol contract is - 31 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3. The CFR price of methanol at the main Chinese port is 232 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 2; the CFR price in Southeast Asia is 317 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 1. The FOB price in Rotterdam is 260 euros/ton, a decrease of 6. The price difference between the main Chinese port and Southeast Asia is - 85 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 1 [2] Upstream Situation - The price of NYMEX natural gas is 4.56 US dollars/million British thermal units, an increase of 0.19 [2] Industry Situation - The inventory at East China ports is 1.0178 million tons, a decrease of 38,600 tons; the inventory at South China ports is 461,500 tons, a decrease of 25,700 tons. The import profit of methanol is - 15.94 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.91. The monthly import volume is 1.4269 million tons, a decrease of 332,900 tons. The inventory of inland enterprises is 358,700 tons, a decrease of 10,600 tons. The methanol enterprise start - up rate is 87.08%, a decrease of 0.71 percentage points [2] Downstream Situation - The formaldehyde start - up rate is 41.42%, a decrease of 0.33 percentage points; the dimethyl ether start - up rate is 5.33%, a decrease of 0.46 percentage points; the acetic acid start - up rate is 67.13%, a decrease of 2.48 percentage points; the MTBE start - up rate is 70.25%, an increase of 1.7 percentage points; the olefin start - up rate is 89.26%, a decrease of 0.72 percentage points. The on - paper profit of methanol - to - olefins is - 448 yuan/ton, a decrease of 43 [2] Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of methanol is 15.63%, a decrease of 1.35; the 40 - day historical volatility is 17.35%, an increase of 0.02. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for methanol is 19.66%, an increase of 0.31; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 19.66%, an increase of 0.31 [2] Industry News - As of November 19, the inventory of Chinese methanol sample production enterprises was 358,700 tons, a decrease of 10,600 tons from the previous period, a week - on - week decrease of 2.86%; the orders to be delivered by sample enterprises were 246,300 tons, an increase of 900 tons from the previous period, a week - on - week increase of 0.37%. As of November 19, the total inventory of Chinese methanol ports was 1.4793 million tons, a decrease of 64,300 tons from the previous data. Both East and South China regions saw inventory reduction. Recently, the production capacity loss due to domestic methanol maintenance and production reduction is less than the production capacity output of recovery, and the overall output has increased [2] Viewpoint Summary - As of November 20, the capacity utilization rate of domestic methanol - to - olefins plants was 90.36%, a week - on - week increase of 0.12%. The load of olefin enterprises in East China was slightly adjusted, and the overall weekly average start - up rate increased slightly. The positive demand from downstream olefin enterprises has a certain positive driving effect on the de - stocking of upstream enterprises, and the inventory of inland enterprises continues to decline. The methanol port inventory decreased this week. Due to the lack of domestic supply and the support of imported goods flowing back, the提货 at East China social warehouses was good, and the overall downstream rigid demand was stable [2] Things to Pay Attention to - Pay attention to the inventory of Longzhong enterprises and port inventory on Wednesday [2]

| | | 沪铅产业日报 2025-11-20 扩大导致的进口增加，并且再生铅开工积极，预计铅库存仍有累积空间。综合来看，沪铅市场整体供应增 长幅度受限，需求增长也面临一定阻力；且库存端预计将继续累积的情况下，继续维持震荡概率加大。今 日沪铅价格维持震荡，盘面未有太大波动，继续关注16980支撑位 研究员: 黄闻杰 期货从业资格号F03142112 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0021738 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 最新 环比 数据指标 | | | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 沪铅主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 17220 | -30 LME3个月铅报价(日,美元/吨) | 2014.5 | -12.5 | | | 12-01月合约价差:沪铅(日,元/吨) | -20 | 0 沪铅持仓量(日,手) | 82766 | -4281 | | | 沪铅前20名净持仓(日,手) | -3236 | 573 沪铅仓单(日,吨) | 0 | 0 | | | 上期所库存(周,吨) | 42790 | 4208 LME铅库存(日,吨) | ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The report anticipates that Shanghai tin will undergo high - level adjustments, and investors should pay attention to the support at the 290,000 - yuan level. The macro - situation shows that the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates within the year has decreased. Fundamentally, the supply of tin ore from Myanmar is expected to increase steadily but with limited increments, while imports from Africa and Australia have declined unexpectedly. The supply growth concern has been alleviated due to a significant drop in Indonesia's refined tin exports in October. On the smelting side, raw material shortages are severe, and refined tin production is restricted. On the demand side, high tin prices have dampened the purchasing sentiment of downstream and end - user enterprises. Technically, there is an increase in the divergence between bulls and bears as positions decline and prices fluctuate [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main Shanghai tin futures contract is 292,030 yuan/ton, down 1,340 yuan; the 12 - January contract closing price is - 500 yuan/ton, up 150 yuan. The LME 3 - month tin price is 36,945 dollars/ton, up 85 dollars. The main contract position volume of Shanghai tin is 24,513 lots, down 3,132 lots. The net position of the top 20 futures is - 2,357 lots, up 158 lots. The LME tin total inventory is 3,115 tons, up 60 tons. The Shanghai Futures Exchange inventory of tin is 6,258 tons, up 266 tons. The Shanghai Futures Exchange tin warrant is 5,960 tons, down 102 tons [3]. 3.2现货市场 - The SMM 1 tin spot price is 291,500 yuan/ton, unchanged; the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market 1 tin spot price is 291,610 yuan/ton, down 570 yuan. The basis of the main Shanghai tin futures contract is - 1,870 yuan/ton, down 2,380 yuan. The LME tin premium (0 - 3) is 100 dollars/ton, up 105.01 dollars [3]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The import volume of tin ore and concentrates is 0.87 million tons, down 0.16 million tons. The average price of 40% tin concentrate is 277,400 yuan/ton, down 2,700 yuan; the processing fee is 10,500 yuan/ton, unchanged. The average price of 60% tin concentrate is 281,400 yuan/ton, down 2,700 yuan; the processing fee is 6,500 yuan/ton, unchanged [3]. 3.4产业情况 - The monthly output of refined tin is 1.4 million tons, down 0.16 million tons. The monthly import volume of refined tin is 1,501.64 tons, up 63.06 tons [3]. 3.5下游情况 - The price of 60A solder bar in Gejiu is 188,300 yuan/ton, unchanged. The cumulative monthly output of tin - plated sheets (strips) is 110.93 million tons, up 14.48 million tons. The monthly export volume of tin - plated sheets is 19.76 million tons, up 3.1 million tons [3]. 3.6行业消息 - The Fed meeting minutes show a serious divergence among policymakers on whether to cut interest rates in December. The number of those who think there is no need for further rate cuts this year is more than those who support rate cuts, and some centrists depend on data. There is almost unanimous agreement to stop the quantitative tightening (QT) of balance - sheet reduction. The US BLS will not release the October non - farm payrolls report but will incorporate relevant data into the November report, which will be released on December 16 [3].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The long - term upward trend of industrial silicon remains intact despite a recent decline, and it is expected to continue rising with a narrowing amplitude [2]. - On the supply side, as the southwest region enters the dry season, electricity prices are expected to rise significantly, and some industrial silicon enterprises in Yunnan and Sichuan have planned to cut production, leading to a contraction in supply next week [2]. - On the demand side, the organic silicon industry's demand for industrial silicon is mainly for rigid procurement, and the increase in organic silicon prices may lead to an increase in industrial silicon demand; the demand for polysilicon is stabilizing, but the profitability of polysilicon enterprises is compressed, reducing their acceptance of industrial silicon prices; the demand for aluminum alloy has limited pulling effect on industrial silicon [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract was 9075 yuan/ton, a decrease of 315 yuan; the position of the main contract was 273,978 lots, a decrease of 32,691 lots; the net position of the top 20 was - 86,614 lots, a decrease of 13,858 lots; the warehouse receipts of GZEE were 43,297 lots, a decrease of 115 lots; the basis of the December - January industrial silicon contract closing price was 5 yuan [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The average price of oxygen - blown 553 silicon was 9550 yuan/ton, an increase of 100 yuan; the average price of 421 silicon was 9800 yuan/ton, an increase of 50 yuan; the basis of the Si main contract was 475 yuan/ton, an increase of 415 yuan; the spot price of DMC was 13,000 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The average price of silica was 410 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of petroleum coke was 2410 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of clean coal was 1850 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of wood chips was 490 yuan/ton; the ex - factory price of graphite electrodes (400mm) was 12,250 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly output of industrial silicon was 402,800 tons, an increase of 36,000 tons; the weekly social inventory of industrial silicon was 552,000 tons, an increase of 10,000 tons; the monthly import volume of industrial silicon was 1939.85 tons, an increase of 602.27 tons; the monthly export volume of industrial silicon was 70,232.72 tons, a decrease of 6409.29 tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The weekly output of organic silicon DMC was 44,900 tons, an increase of 700 tons; the average price of aluminum alloy ADC12 in the Yangtze River spot was 21,400 yuan/ton, an increase of 100 yuan; the weekly average price of photovoltaic - grade polysilicon was 6.5 US dollars/kg, unchanged; the overseas market price of photovoltaic - grade polysilicon was 15.95 US dollars/kg, unchanged; the monthly export volume of unforged aluminum alloy was 23,495.34 tons, a decrease of 5568.37 tons; the weekly operating rate of organic silicon DMC was 72.18%, an increase of 2.92 percentage points; the monthly output of aluminum alloy was 1.776 million tons, an increase of 141,000 tons; the monthly export volume of aluminum alloy was 23,495.34 tons, a decrease of 5568.37 tons [2]. 3.6 Industry News - On November 12th, Luxi Chemical (000830.SZ) led an organic silicon industry meeting, aiming to cut the industry's operating rate by 30% starting in early December and raise the price of organic silicon DMC to 13,500 yuan/ton within half a month [2].

Report Summary - **Report Date**: November 19, 2025 [1] - **Report Type**: Natural Rubber Industry Daily Report 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - The ru2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 15,250 - 15,700 in the short term, and the nr2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 12,350 - 12,700 in the short term [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - **Prices**: The closing price of the main Shanghai rubber contract was 15,440 yuan/ton, up 145 yuan; the closing price of the main 20 - number rubber contract was 12,480 yuan/ton, up 135 yuan [2] - **Spreads**: The 1 - 5 spread of Shanghai rubber was - 85 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan; the 12 - 1 spread of 20 - number rubber was - 25 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan [2] - **Positions**: The position of the main Shanghai rubber contract was 126,127 lots, up 2,096 lots; the position of the main 20 - number rubber contract was 61,464 lots, up 61 lots [2] - **Net Positions**: The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai rubber was - 29,656 lots, up 1,097 lots; the net position of the top 20 in 20 - number rubber was - 7,368 lots, up 450 lots [2] - **Warehouse Receipts**: The warehouse receipts of Shanghai rubber in the exchange were 116,060 tons, up 160 tons; the warehouse receipts of 20 - number rubber in the exchange were 49,594 tons, down 101 tons [2] 3.2 Spot Market - **Rubber Prices**: The price of state - owned whole latex in the Shanghai market was 14,950 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan; the price of Vietnam 3L in the Shanghai market was 15,200 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan [2] - **Synthetic Rubber Prices**: The price of Qilu Petrochemical's butadiene styrene 1502 was 10,800 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan; the price of Qilu Petrochemical's cis - butadiene BR9000 was 10,500 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] - **Basis**: The basis of Shanghai rubber was - 490 yuan/ton, down 45 yuan; the basis of the main non - standard product of Shanghai rubber contract was - 695 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - **Thai Rubber Prices**: The market reference price of Thai smoked sheet was 60.55 Thai baht/kg, up 0.22 Thai baht; the market reference price of Thai rubber sheet was 56.3 Thai baht/kg, up 0.2 Thai baht [2] - **Production Profits**: The theoretical production profit of RSS3 was 149.6 US dollars/ton, up 19 US dollars; the theoretical production profit of STR20 was - 5.4 US dollars/ton, up 18 US dollars [2] - **Imports**: The monthly import volume of technically specified natural rubber was 122,600 tons, up 9,500 tons; the monthly import volume of mixed rubber was 317,500 tons, up 49,100 tons [2] 3.4 Downstream Situation - **Tire开工率**: The weekly operating rate of all - steel tires was 64.5%, down 0.96 percentage points; the weekly operating rate of semi - steel tires was 73.68%, up 0.01 percentage points [2] - **Tire Inventories**: The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong were 39.55 days, up 0.35 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong were 45.36 days, up 0.31 days [2] - **Tire Output**: The monthly output of all - steel tires was 13.14 million pieces, up 110,000 pieces; the monthly output of semi - steel tires was 60.25 million pieces, up 2.19 million pieces [2] 3.5 Option Market - **Volatility**: The 20 - day historical volatility of the underlying was 15.92%, up 0.32 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility of the underlying was 18.34%, up 0.17 percentage points [2] - **Implied Volatility**: The implied volatility of at - the - money call options was 20.58%, up 0.01 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options was 20.57%, unchanged [2] 3.6 Industry News - **Truck Sales**: In October 2025, China's heavy - truck market sold about 93,000 vehicles, a month - on - month decrease of about 12% and a year - on - year increase of about 40%. From January to October, the cumulative sales exceeded 916,000 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of about 22% [2] - **Inventory in Qingdao**: As of November 16, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao's bonded and general trade was 452,600 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3,100 tons, an increase of 0.70%. The bonded area inventory was 66,600 tons, a decrease of 1.76%; the general trade inventory was 386,000 tons, an increase of 1.13% [2] - **Tire Capacity Utilization**: As of November 13, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 72.99%, a month - on - month increase of 0.10 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 6.74 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises was 64.29%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.08 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 6.04 percentage points [2]

国债期货日报 2025/11/19 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 最新 | 最新 | 环比 项目 | | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货盘面 | T主力收盘价 66875 | 108.425 | -0.06% T主力成交量 | | 3202↑ | | | TF主力收盘价 54572 | 105.880 | -0.03% TF主力成交量 | | 2656↑ | | | TS主力收盘价 28995 | 102.462 | -0.03% TS主力成交量 | | -5728↓ | | | TL主力收盘价 100953 | 116.090 | -0.41% TL主力成交量 | | 11525↑ | | 期货价差 | TL2512-2603价差 | 0.23 | +0.01↑ T12-TL12价差 | -7.67 | 0.36↑ | | | T2512-2603价差 | 0.26 | +0.01↑ TF12-T12价差 | -2.55 | 0.03↑ | | | TF2512-2603价差 | 0.02 | -0.02↓ TS12-T12价差 | -5.96 ...