1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - On November 19th, the manganese - silicon 2601 contract was reported at 5642, down 1.16%. The inventory has rebounded rapidly, production at a high level continues to decline slightly, and inventory has risen for 7 consecutive weeks. The port inventory of imported manganese ore at the raw material end decreased by 13.4 tons, and the overall demand for hot metal has a seasonal decline. The daily K - line is below the 20 and 60 - day moving averages, and the short - term trend is expected to be weak and volatile [2]. - On November 19th, the ferrosilicon 2603 contract was reported at 5504, down 1.01%. Coal weakening led to an adjustment in alloys. Market transactions are mainly for terminal rigid - demand restocking, and inventory has risen for two consecutive weeks. The daily K - line is above the 20 and 60 - day moving averages, and the short - term trend is expected to be weak and volatile [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - SM main contract closing price: 5,642 yuan/ton, down 38 yuan; SF main contract closing price: 5,462 yuan/ton, down 12 yuan [2]. - SM futures contract open interest: 715,001 lots, up 48,355 lots; SF futures contract open interest: 423,558 lots, up 25,031 lots [2]. - Manganese - silicon top 20 net open interest: - 12,370 lots, up 9,528 lots; Ferrosilicon top 20 net open interest: - 16,726 lots, up 1,826 lots [2]. - SM 5 - 1 month contract spread: 58 yuan/ton, down 8 yuan; SF 5 - 1 month contract spread: - 2 yuan/ton, down 12 yuan [2]. - SM warehouse receipts: 19,744 sheets, down 119 sheets; SF warehouse receipts: 8,396 sheets, down 47 sheets [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - Inner Mongolia manganese - silicon FeMn68Si18: 5,500 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan; Guizhou manganese - silicon FeMn68Si18: 5,560 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan; Yunnan manganese - silicon FeMn68Si18: 5,550 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - Inner Mongolia ferrosilicon FeSi75 - B: 5,300 yuan/ton, unchanged; Qinghai ferrosilicon FeSi75 - B: 5,180 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan; Ningxia ferrosilicon FeSi75 - B: 5,220 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan [2]. - Manganese - silicon index average: 5,579 yuan/ton, down 16 yuan; SF main contract basis: - 242 yuan/ton, down 8 yuan; SM main contract basis: - 142 yuan/ton, down 12 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - South African ore: Mn38 lump at Tianjin Port: 32 yuan/ton - degree, unchanged; Silica (98% in Northwest): 210 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - Inner Mongolia Wuhai secondary metallurgical coke: 1,300 yuan/ton, unchanged; Semi - coke (medium material in Shenmu): 880 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - Manganese ore port inventory: 426.3 tons, down 13.4 tons [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - Manganese - silicon enterprise operating rate: 39.59%, down 0.65%; Ferrosilicon enterprise operating rate: 34.84%, down 1.42% [2]. - Manganese - silicon supply: 199,570 tons, down 2,310 tons; Ferrosilicon supply: 109,100 tons, down 5,000 tons [2]. - Manganese - silicon manufacturer inventory: 349,500 tons, up 30,000 tons; Ferrosilicon manufacturer inventory: 81,360 tons, up 2,670 tons [2]. - Manganese - silicon national steel mill inventory: 15.7 days, down 0.23 days; Ferrosilicon national steel mill inventory: 15.67 days, up 0.15 days [2]. - Five major steel types' manganese - silicon demand: 118,589 tons, down 2,524 tons; Five major steel types' ferrosilicon demand: 19,073.8 tons, down 739.9 tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - 247 steel mills' blast furnace operating rate: 82.79%, down 0.36%; 247 steel mills' blast furnace capacity utilization: 88.82%, up 1.03% [2]. - October national crude steel production: 7,199.7 tons, down 149.31 tons; January - October cumulative crude steel production: 81,787.4 tons, down 3.9% year - on - year [2]. 3.6 Industry News - The EU announced import quotas for steel alloys containing manganese or silicon for three years, setting quotas by ferro - alloy category and exporting country to limit duty - free imports in the EU [2]. - Local "state - owned" platforms in Beijing, Guangzhou, Fuzhou, etc. have publicly sold real estate this year, which should not be interpreted as a sell - off [2]. 3.7 Profit and Market Pricing - Manganese - silicon: Inner Mongolia spot profit is - 180 yuan/ton; Ningxia spot profit is - 380 yuan/ton. HeSteel Group's November silicon - manganese final price is 5,820 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous month [2]. - Ferrosilicon: Inner Mongolia spot profit is - 250 yuan/ton; Ningxia spot profit is - 480 yuan/ton. HeSteel's November 75B ferrosilicon tender price is 5,680 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan from the previous round [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View - The raw material cost of stainless steel has decreased due to the decline in ferronickel prices. The supply pressure is expected to increase as stainless - steel mills are likely to increase production schedules. However, the demand is weak with low market purchasing willingness, resulting in a slight increase in the national stainless - steel social inventory. Technically, with increasing positions and falling prices, the bearish sentiment is strong. It is expected that the stainless - steel futures price will oscillate weakly, and attention should be paid to the MA10 pressure [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the stainless - steel futures main contract is 12,335 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan; the 12 - 01 contract spread is - 105 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan. The net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 15,655 lots, down 240 lots; the main contract position volume is 183,832 lots, up 6,511 lots. The warehouse receipt quantity is 68,310 tons, down 485 tons [2]. 3.2现货市场 - The price of 304/2B coil (trimmed edge) in Wuxi is 13,250 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan; the market price of scrap stainless steel 304 in Wuxi is 8,850 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis of the SS main contract is 510 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The monthly electrolytic nickel output is 29,430 tons, up 1,120 tons; the total monthly ferronickel output is 21,700 metal tons, down 300 metal tons. The monthly import volume of refined nickel and alloys is 28,570.87 tons, up 4,144.03 tons; the monthly import volume of ferronickel is 1.0853 million tons, up 211,200 tons. The SMM1 nickel spot price is 117,600 yuan/ton, up 650 yuan; the average price of ferronickel (7 - 10%) nationwide is 900 yuan/nickel point, unchanged. The monthly Chinese ferrochrome output is 757,800 tons, down 26,900 tons [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly output of 300 - series stainless steel is 1.7627 million tons, up 24,800 tons; the weekly total inventory of 300 - series stainless steel is 591,200 tons, up 20,400 tons. The monthly stainless - steel export volume is 458,500 tons, down 29,500 tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The cumulative monthly new housing construction area is 453.99 million square meters, up 55.9799 million square meters. The monthly output of excavators is 31,600 units, up 4,000 units. The monthly output of large and medium - sized tractors is 26,200 units, down 500 units; the monthly output of small tractors is 10,000 units, up 1,000 units [2]. 3.6 Industry News - In the week ending October 18, the number of initial jobless claims in the US was 232,000, and the number of continuing jobless claims rose slightly to 1.957 million from 1.947 million in the previous week. Li Qiang met with Russian President Vladimir Putin, expressing China's determination to develop mutually beneficial cooperation with Russia. In the raw material segment, the rainy season is approaching in the Philippines, and the nickel ore grade is decreasing, leading to tight raw material inventories in domestic ferronickel plants. However, Indonesia's ferronickel production remains high, and the amount flowing back to China is expected to increase [2].

行，由于检修企业在本周涉及检修天数增多，预计产能利用率将进一步下滑。br2601合约短线预计在1045 研究员: 林静宜 期货从业资格号F03139610 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0021558 0-10800区间波动。 免责声明 合成橡胶产业日报 2025-11-19 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 主力合约收盘价:合成橡胶(日,元/吨) | 10705 | 200 主力合约持仓量:合成橡胶(日,元/吨) | 71378 | -643 | | | 合成橡胶12-1价差(日,元/吨) | -40 | -45 仓单数量:丁二烯橡胶:仓库:总计(日,吨) | 2980 | 0 | | 现货市场 | 主流价:顺丁橡胶(BR9000,齐鲁石化):山 | 10550 | 50 主流价:顺丁橡胶(BR9000,大庆石化):山 | 10550 | 50 | | | 东(日,元/吨) 主流价:顺丁橡胶(BR9000,大庆石化):上 | | 东(日,元/吨) 主流价:顺丁橡胶(BR90 ...

沪铜产业日报 2025/11/19 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 期货主力合约收盘价:沪铜(日,元/吨) | 86,080.00 | +430.00↑ LME3个月铜(日,美元/吨) | 10,751.00 | +31.50↑ | | 期货市场 | 主力合约隔月价差(日,元/吨) | 0.00 | 0.00 主力合约持仓量:沪铜(日,手) | 153,278.00 | -11118.00↓ | | | 期货前20名持仓:沪铜(日,手) | -23,694.00 | +11.00↑ LME铜:库存(日,吨) | 136,050.00 | +325.00↑ | | | 上期所库存:阴极铜(周,吨) | 109,407.00 | -5628.00↓ LME铜:注销仓单(日,吨) | 9,475.00 | -175.00↓ | | | 上期所仓单:阴极铜(日,吨) | 60,874.00 | -2856.00↓ | | | | | SMM1#铜现货(日,元/吨) | 86,115.0 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Opinions of the Report - On November 19, the closing price of the coking coal 2601 contract was 1139.5, down 2.81%. On the spot side, Mongolian No. 5 coking coal in Tangshan was reported at 1550, equivalent to 1330 on the futures market. The macro - situation is that the NDRC requires stable energy production and supply, weakening the market's expectations. Fundamentally, the current capacity utilization rate of mines has rebounded, inventory is at a moderate level, and the total inventory shows a seasonal upward trend. Technically, the daily K - line is below the 20 - day and 60 - day moving averages, so it should be treated as a short - term weak oscillating trend [2]. - On November 19, the closing price of the coke 2601 contract was 1639.0, down 1.62%. On the spot side, the fourth round of price increase for coke has been implemented. In terms of the macro - situation, China's crude steel output in October was 7199.7 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 12.1%; the cumulative crude steel output from January to October was 81787.4 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3.9%. Fundamentally, on the demand side, the current pig iron output is 236.88, an increase of 2.66 million tons, and the total coke inventory is relatively high compared to the same period. In terms of profit, the average profit per ton of coke for 30 independent coking plants across the country is - 34 yuan/ton. Technically, the daily K - line is below the 20 - day and 60 - day moving averages, so it should be treated as a short - term weak oscillating trend [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the JM main contract was 1139.50 yuan/ton, down 19.50 yuan; the closing price of the J main contract was 1639.00 yuan/ton, down 10.50 yuan [2]. - The JM futures contract open interest was 914280.00 lots, down 19994.00 lots; the J futures contract open interest was 49027.00 lots, up 154.00 lots [2]. - The net position of the top 20 JM contracts was - 128242.00 lots, up 736.00 lots; the net position of the top 20 J contracts was - 2151.00 lots, up 337.00 lots [2]. - The JM 5 - 1 month contract spread was 71.00 yuan/ton, down 2.00 yuan; the J 5 - 1 month contract spread was 156.50 yuan/ton, up 11.00 yuan [2]. - The coking coal warehouse receipts were 300.00, unchanged; the coke warehouse receipts were 2070.00, unchanged [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The price of Ganqimao Mongolian No. 5 raw coal was 1052.00 yuan/ton, down 46.00 yuan; the price of Tangshan Grade - 1 metallurgical coke was 1885.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The price of Russian prime coking coal forward spot (CFR) was 162.50 US dollars/wet ton, unchanged; the price of Rizhao Port quasi - Grade - 1 metallurgical coke was 1670.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The price of Australian imported prime coking coal at Jingtang Port was 1580.00 yuan/ton, down 10.00 yuan; the price of Tianjin Port Grade - 1 metallurgical coke was 1770.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The price of Shanxi - produced prime coking coal at Jingtang Port was 1860.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Tianjin Port quasi - Grade - 1 metallurgical coke was 1670.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The price of medium - sulfur prime coking coal in Lingshi, Jinzhong, Shanxi was 1610.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; the J main contract basis was 246.00 yuan/ton, up 10.50 yuan [2]. - The ex - factory price of coking coal produced in Wuhai, Inner Mongolia was 1400.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; the JM main contract basis was 470.50 yuan/ton, up 19.50 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The refined coal output of 314 independent coal washing plants was 27.60 million tons, up 0.20 million tons; the refined coal inventory of 314 independent coal washing plants was 302.80 million tons, up 2.00 million tons [2]. - The capacity utilization rate of 314 independent coal washing plants was 0.38%, unchanged; the raw coal output was 40675.00 million tons, down 475.50 million tons [2]. - The import volume of coal and lignite was 4174.00 million tons, down 426.00 million tons; the daily average raw coal output of 523 coking coal mines was 192.00 million tons, up 5.60 million tons [2]. - The imported coking coal inventory at 16 ports was 488.20 million tons, down 39.18 million tons; the total coking coal inventory of all - sample independent coking enterprises was 1068.97 million tons, down 1.05 million tons [2]. - The coke inventory at 18 ports was 259.50 million tons, down 3.01 million tons; the coke inventory of all - sample independent coking enterprises was 58.15 million tons, down 0.15 million tons [2]. - The coking coal inventory of 247 steel mills nationwide was 790.17 million tons, up 2.87 million tons; the coke inventory of 247 sample steel mills was 622.40 million tons, down 4.24 million tons [2]. - The available days of coking coal for all - sample independent coking enterprises were 12.87 days, up 0.03 days; the available days of coke for 247 sample steel mills were 11.06 days, down 0.01 days [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The import volume of coking coal was 1092.36 million tons, up 76.14 million tons; the export volume of coke and semi - coke was 73.00 million tons, up 19.00 million tons [2]. - The output of coking coal was 3975.92 million tons, up 279.06 million tons; the capacity utilization rate of independent coking enterprises was 71.64%, down 0.67% [2]. - The average profit per ton of coke for independent coking plants was - 34.00 yuan/ton, down 12.00 yuan/ton; the coke output was 4189.60 million tons, down 66.00 million tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills nationwide was 82.79%, down 0.36%; the blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills was 88.82%, up 1.03% [2]. - The crude steel output was 7199.70 million tons, down 149.31 million tons [2]. 3.6 Industry News - As the heating season begins in northern China, the peak season for winter coal transportation has arrived. As of November 17, the coal transportation volume of the Datong - Qinhuangdao Railway in November reached 2116.6 million tons, with a daily average of 124.5 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 23.9 million tons [2]. - "China Metallurgical News" published an editorial, stating that all steel enterprises should incorporate the principles of "production based on sales, production based on efficiency, and sales based on cash" into their business operations, not turn cash into inventory, avoid disorderly low - price competition, and not make short - sighted decisions that overdraw the future, and truly abide by the principles of "honesty, self - discipline, and compliance" [2]. - According to the National Bureau of Statistics, China's crude steel output in October was 7199.7 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 12.1%; the cumulative crude steel output from January to October was 81787.4 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3.9% [2]. - According to the China National Coal Association, from January to October 2025, the total raw coal output of the top 10 enterprises was 1.98 billion tons, a year - on - year increase of 20 million tons, accounting for 49.8% of the raw coal output of enterprises above designated size [2].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoint The report anticipates that nickel prices will fluctuate weakly. On the macro - level, the US initial jobless claims and continued claims have increased. Fundamentally, the PNBP policy in Indonesia restricts supply and raises costs, while Philippine nickel ore supply is high but with lower grades and domestic nickel ore inventories are lower than the same period last year. Refined nickel production growth is expected to be limited due to slow new project launches and some smelters' loss - induced production cuts. On the demand side, stainless - steel mills' production is expected to rise despite the off - peak season, and new energy vehicles contribute a small demand increment. Both domestic and overseas nickel inventories are increasing. Technically, the increase in positions and falling prices indicate a growing bearish sentiment. It is expected that short - term Shanghai nickel will fluctuate weakly, and attention should be paid to the MA5 pressure [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai nickel is 115,650 yuan/ton, up 810 yuan; the 12 - 01 month contract spread is - 180 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan. - The LME 3 - month nickel price is 14,645 dollars/ton, down 30 dollars. - The main contract's open interest of Shanghai nickel is 85,012 lots, down 14,670 lots. - The net long position of the top 20 futures holders of Shanghai nickel is - 32,089 lots, down 914 lots. - LME nickel inventory is 257,832 tons, up 138 tons; the Shanghai Futures Exchange nickel inventory is 40,573 tons, up 3,386 tons. - The LME nickel cancelled warrants total 13,632 tons, down 324 tons; the warehouse receipt quantity of Shanghai nickel is 34,631 tons, down 793 tons [3]. 3.2现货市场 - The SMM 1 nickel spot price is 117,600 yuan/ton, up 650 yuan; the average spot price of 1 nickel plate in Yangtze River Non - ferrous is 117,600 yuan/ton, up 550 yuan. - The CIF (bill of lading) price of Shanghai electrolytic nickel is 85 dollars/ton, unchanged; the bonded warehouse (warehouse receipt) price is 85 dollars/ton, unchanged. - The average price of battery - grade nickel sulfate is 27,500 yuan/ton, unchanged. - The basis of the NI main contract is 1,950 yuan/ton, down 160 yuan. - The LME nickel (spot/three - month) premium is - 199.86 dollars/ton, up 3.71 dollars [3]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The monthly import volume of nickel ore is 611.45 million tons, down 23.22 million tons. - The total port inventory of nickel ore is 1,509.49 million tons, up 27.83 million tons. - The average monthly import unit price of nickel ore is 56.72 dollars/ton, down 4.61 dollars. - The含税 price of Indonesian laterite nickel ore with 1.8% Ni is 41.71 dollars/wet ton, unchanged [3]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly electrolytic nickel production is 29,430 tons, up 1,120 tons. - The total monthly nickel - iron production is 2.17 million metal tons, down 0.03 million metal tons. - The monthly import volume of refined nickel and alloys is 28,570.87 tons, up 4,144.03 tons; the monthly import volume of nickel - iron is 108.53 million tons, up 21.12 million tons [3]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The monthly production of 300 - series stainless steel is 176.27 million tons, up 2.48 million tons. - The total weekly inventory of 300 - series stainless steel is 59.12 million tons, up 2.04 million tons [3]. 3.6 Industry News - In the week ending October 18, the US initial jobless claims totaled 232,000, and the continued claims were 1.957 million, slightly up from the previous week's 1.947 million. - Li Qiang met with Russian President Vladimir Putin, emphasizing China's determination to develop mutually beneficial cooperation with Russia [3].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - Today, the price of polysilicon started to rise again due to the resonance of the increase in industrial silicon price and power cost, but the increase was significantly lower than that of industrial silicon. It is expected that the upward momentum will be limited in the future, and attention should be paid to the resistance level above 56,000 yuan/ton [2][3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main polysilicon contract was 54,625 yuan/ton, with a week-on-week increase of 2,415 yuan/ton; the open interest of the main contract was 134,317 lots, with a week-on-week decrease of 2,774 lots; the basis between the December and January contracts of polysilicon was 2,160 yuan/ton, with a week-on-week increase of 1,240 yuan/ton; the price difference between polysilicon and industrial silicon was 45,235 yuan/ton, with a week-on-week increase of 2,005 yuan/ton [3] Spot Market - The spot price of polysilicon was 52,300 yuan/ton, with no week-on-week change; the average price of N-type silicon wafers (210R) was 1.27 yuan/piece, with a week-on-week decrease of 0.01 yuan/piece; the weekly average price of photovoltaic-grade polysilicon was 6.5 US dollars/kg, with no week-on-week change; the basis of polysilicon was -355 yuan/ton, with a week-on-week increase of 1,390 yuan/ton [3] Upstream Situation - The closing price of the main industrial silicon contract was 9,390 yuan/ton, with a week-on-week increase of 410 yuan/ton; the spot price of industrial silicon was 9,450 yuan/ton, with no week-on-week change; the export volume of industrial silicon was 70,232.72 tons, with a month-on-month decrease of 6,409.29 tons; the import volume of industrial silicon was 1,939.85 tons, with a month-on-month increase of 602.27 tons; the output of industrial silicon was 402,800 tons, with a month-on-month increase of 36,000 tons; the total social inventory of industrial silicon was 552,000 tons, with a week-on-week increase of 10,000 tons [3] Industry Situation - The monthly output of polysilicon was 130,000 tons, with a month-on-month increase of 5,000 tons; the monthly import volume of polysilicon was 1,292 tons, with a month-on-month increase of 286 tons; the weekly spot price of imported polysilicon materials in China was 6.92 US dollars/kg, with no week-on-week change; the monthly average import price of polysilicon in China was 2,350 US dollars/ton, with a month-on-month decrease of 270 US dollars/ton [3] Downstream Situation - The monthly output of solar cells was 70,873,000 kilowatts, with a month-on-month increase of 1,016,000 kilowatts; the weekly average price of mainstream photovoltaic modules was 0.74 yuan/watt, with no week-on-week change; the weekly comprehensive price index of the photovoltaic industry (SPI) for polysilicon was 32.82, with no week-on-week change; the daily average price of solar cells was 0.82 yuan/watt, with a week-on-week increase of 0.01 yuan/watt; the monthly export volume of photovoltaic modules was 129,531,200 pieces, with a month-on-month decrease of 19,491,300 pieces; the monthly import volume of photovoltaic modules was 14,733,700 pieces, with a month-on-month decrease of 6,706,500 pieces; the monthly average import price of photovoltaic modules was 0.3 US dollars/piece, with a month-on-month increase of 0.06 US dollars/piece [3] Industry News - On November 12th, Luxi Chemical (000830.SZ) led an organic silicon industry meeting attended by the heads of many listed companies. The meeting reached a unified goal: to reduce the industry's operating rate by 30% starting in early December, and to raise the price target of organic silicon DMC to 13,500 yuan/ton and strive to achieve it within half a month. In terms of polysilicon, on the supply side, as the southwest region gradually enters the dry season, power supply is tight and costs have risen significantly. Polysilicon producers in Sichuan, Yunnan and other places are facing greater cost pressures, and some enterprises have planned to reduce their operating rates. In the northwest regions such as Xinjiang and Inner Mongolia, with abundant coal resources, the power cost is relatively stable, and the polysilicon production capacity is operating smoothly. On the demand side, the demand in the downstream cell and module markets is weak, and the inventory pressure of silicon wafer enterprises has increased. They have to reduce production to ease the supply-demand contradiction. The slowdown in terminal market demand and the continuous decline in photovoltaic product prices have compressed corporate profit margins and dampened production enthusiasm [3]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the content 2) Report Core Views - The rapeseed meal market is in a situation of weak supply and demand. Recently, rapeseed meal prices have dropped significantly with increased market volatility, so short - term observation is recommended. Later, attention should be paid to whether there will be a breakthrough in China - Canada trade policies [2] - The rapeseed oil market will continue the de - stocking mode, which supports its price. However, due to the abundant supply of soybean oil and its good substitution advantage, rapeseed oil demand is mainly for rigid needs [2] 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - Futures closing prices: Rapeseed oil was 9813 yuan/ton (down 61 yuan), rapeseed meal was 2419 yuan/ton (down 12 yuan), ICE rapeseed was 655.9 Canadian dollars/ton (up 0.3 Canadian dollars), and rapeseed was 5551 yuan/ton (up 31 yuan) [2] - Month - to - month spreads: Rapeseed oil (1 - 5) was 363 yuan/ton (down 64 yuan), rapeseed meal (1 - 5) was 32 yuan/ton (down 2 yuan) [2] - Main contract positions: Rapeseed oil was 243297 lots (down 7957 lots), rapeseed meal was 387336 lots (down 23838 lots) [2] - Net long positions of the top 20 futures holders: Rapeseed oil was - 745 lots (down 1497 lots), rapeseed meal was - 16912 lots (down 12632 lots) [2] - Warehouse receipt numbers: Rapeseed oil was 4161 sheets (down 1092 sheets), rapeseed meal was 2000 sheets (down 745 sheets) [2] Spot Market - Spot prices: Rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 10270 yuan/ton (up 30 yuan), rapeseed meal in Nantong was 2400 yuan/ton (down 40 yuan), rapeseed in Yancheng, Jiangsu was 5700 yuan/ton (unchanged) [2] - Average price: Rapeseed oil was 10363.75 yuan/ton (up 30 yuan), import cost of rapeseed was 8075.71 yuan/ton (up 53.24 yuan) [2] - Basis: Rapeseed oil main contract basis was 396 yuan/ton (up 36 yuan), rapeseed meal main contract basis was - 19 yuan/ton (down 28 yuan) [2] - Spot price differences: Rapeseed - soybean oil was 1660 yuan/ton (unchanged), rapeseed - palm oil was 1650 yuan/ton (down 20 yuan), soybean - rapeseed meal was 650 yuan/ton (up 30 yuan) [2] Upstream Situation - Global rapeseed production forecast: 90.96 million tons (up 1.38 million tons), annual forecast of rapeseed production was 13446 thousand tons (up 1068 thousand tons) [2] - Rapeseed import quantity: 11.53 tons (down 13.13 tons), import rapeseed crushing profit was 686 yuan/ton (down 62 yuan) [2] - Rapeseed inventory in oil mills: 0.25 tons (down 0.25 tons), weekly startup rate of imported rapeseed was 0% (unchanged) [2] - Import quantity: Rapeseed oil and mustard oil was 16 tons (up 2 tons), rapeseed meal was 15.77 tons (down 5.57 tons) [2] Industry Situation - Coastal rapeseed oil inventory: 2.08 tons (down 0.52 tons), coastal rapeseed meal inventory was 0.2 tons (down 0.3 tons) [2] - East China rapeseed oil inventory: 40.05 tons (down 2.37 tons), East China rapeseed meal inventory was 22.96 tons (down 2.49 tons) [2] - Guangxi rapeseed oil inventory: 1.48 tons (down 0.32 tons), South China rapeseed meal inventory was 22.3 tons (up 1.5 tons) [2] - Weekly pick - up volume: Rapeseed oil was 1.01 tons (down 0.3 tons), rapeseed meal was 0.3 tons (up 0.1 tons) [2] Downstream Situation - Feed production: 3128.7 tons (up 201.5 tons), catering revenue in social consumer goods retail was 5199 billion yuan (up 690.4 billion yuan) [2] - Edible vegetable oil production: 495 tons (up 44.4 tons) [2] Option Market - Implied volatility of at - the - money call options: Rapeseed meal was 20.73% (down 0.83%), rapeseed oil was 13.46% (down 0.54%) [2] - Implied volatility of at - the - money put options: Rapeseed meal was 20.72% (down 0.84%), rapeseed oil was 13.46% (down 0.54%) [2] - Historical volatility: Rapeseed meal (20 - day) was 22.01% (down 0.36%), rapeseed meal (60 - day) was 21.45% (down 0.28%); rapeseed oil (20 - day) was 14.91% (down 0.13%), rapeseed oil (60 - day) was 13.7% (down 0.07%) [2] Industry News - On November 18 (Tuesday), ICE rapeseed futures closed slightly higher, following the uptrend of vegetable oils. The January rapeseed futures contract rose 1.20 Canadian dollars to settle at 656.40 Canadian dollars per ton [2] - USDA unexpectedly lowered US soybean exports for the 2025/26 season. After the report was released, there was a sell - off. However, Chinese buyers started purchasing US soybeans this week, supporting the US soybean market [2] Key Points to Follow - Monitor the rapeseed startup rate and rapeseed oil and meal inventory in various regions from myagric.com on Monday, and the trend of China - Canada trade relations [2]

1. Report Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report 2. Core Views Corn - The U.S. corn harvest is nearly complete, with high short - term supply pressure. The USDA report is slightly bearish overall, but U.S. corn shows a strong oscillation due to the rise of soybeans and wheat. In China's Northeast, prices have risen due to purchases and reduced supply, but the slow market movement limits further price increases. In the North China Huang - Huai region, the strong reluctance of farmers to sell keeps market purchases low, and the price increase of deep - processing enterprises has slowed down. The corn futures price has slightly declined recently, suggesting short - term waiting and seeing [2][3] Corn Starch - With the increase in new - season corn supply, the industry's operating rate has risen, increasing supply - side pressure. However, the current supply - demand structure is good, downstream demand is acceptable, and enterprise sales are smooth. The starch inventory has decreased. Recently, the starch price has declined along with the corn market, suggesting short - term waiting and seeing [4] 3. Summary by Directory Futures Market - Corn starch futures closing price (active contract): 2480 yuan/ton, up 13 yuan; corn monthly spread (1 - 5): - 70 yuan/ton; corn starch monthly spread (1 - 3): 1 yuan/ton, up 7 yuan. Corn futures open interest (active contract): 945,952 lots; corn starch futures open interest (active contract): 217,188 lots, down 1,539 lots. Net long positions of the top 20 futures holders: - 113,125 lots for corn, - 44,299 lots for corn starch, up 2,714 lots. Registered warehouse receipts: 69,337 lots for yellow corn, 12,453 lots for corn starch. The CS - C spread of the main contract is 340 yuan/ton. CBOT corn futures closing price (active contract): 435.5 cents/bushel; CBOT corn total open interest (weekly): 1,543,065 contracts, up 13,269 contracts [2] Spot Market - Corn average spot price: 2,278.82 yuan/ton; corn flat - hatch price at Jinzhou Port: 2,220 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan. Imported corn CIF price: 2,032.69 yuan/ton; international freight for imported corn: 0 dollars/ton. Corn starch ex - factory prices in Changchun, Weifang, and Shijiazhuang are 2,510 yuan/ton, 2,750 yuan/ton, and 2,680 yuan/ton respectively. The basis of the corn starch main contract is 43 yuan, up 22 yuan; the basis of the corn main contract is - 7 yuan. The spread between Shandong starch and corn (weekly) is 500 yuan/ton, down 24 yuan [2] Substitute Spot Prices - The average spot price of wheat is 2,500.06 yuan/ton. The spread between tapioca starch and corn starch (weekly) is 440 yuan/ton, up 118 yuan; the spread between corn starch and 30 - powder is - 210 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan [2] Upstream Situation - Forecasted sown areas of corn in the United States, Brazil, Argentina, China, and Ukraine are 427.11 million hectares, 131 million hectares, 53 million hectares, 295 million hectares, and 32 million hectares respectively. Forecasted corn yields in the United States, Brazil, Argentina, China, and Ukraine are 36.44 million tons, 22.6 million tons, 7.5 million tons, 44.3 million tons, and no data respectively [2] Industry Situation - Corn inventories at southern and northern ports are not provided. Deep - processing corn inventory (weekly): 273.50 million tons, down 6 million tons; starch enterprise weekly inventory (weekly): 110.9 million tons, down 2.4 million tons. Monthly corn import volume: 6 million tons; monthly corn starch export volume: 12,780 tons, down 2,020 tons. Monthly feed production: 3,128.7 million tons [2] Downstream Situation - Sample feed corn inventory days (weekly): 25.61 days; deep - processing corn consumption (weekly): 138.65 million tons. Alcohol enterprise operating rate (weekly): 67.29%; starch enterprise operating rate (weekly): 60.89%, down 2.59%. Corn starch processing profits in Shandong, Hebei, and Jilin are 31 yuan/ton, 104 yuan/ton, and 28 yuan/ton respectively [2] Option Market - 20 - day historical volatility of corn: 8.43%; 60 - day historical volatility of corn: 7.72%, up 0.03%. Implied volatility of at - the - money call options on corn: 7.92%, up 0.89%; implied volatility of at - the - money put options on corn: 7.92%, up 0.89% [2] Industry News - As of the week ending November 16, 2025, the U.S. corn harvest rate was 91%, compared with 98% last year and a five - year average of 94%. As of November 15, 2025, the planting of Brazil's first - season corn in the 2025/26 season was 52.6% complete, compared with 47.7% last week, 52.4% last year, and a five - year average of 53.0% [2]

螺纹钢产业链日报 2025/11/19 研究员: 蔡跃辉 期货从业资格号F0251444 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0013101 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任何保证，据此投资，责任自负。 本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人 不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | RB主力合约收盘价(元/吨) | 3,070.00 | -20↓ RB主力合约持仓量(手) | 1631133 | -24336↓ | | | RB合约前20名净持仓(手) | -100308 | -30851↓ RB1-5合约价差(元/吨) | -46 | +3↑ | | | RB上期所仓单日报(日 ...