瑞达期货研究院 「2025.11.14」 红枣市场周报 研究员：王翠冰 期货从业资格号F03139616 期货投资咨询从业证Z0021556 取 更 多 资 讯 添加客服 关 注 我 们 获 业务咨询 目录 1、周度要点小结 2、期现市场 3、产业情况 4、期权市场及期股关联 「 周度要点小结」 未来交易提示： 1、现货价格2、消费端 3 行情回顾：本周郑枣主力合约价格下跌，周度跌幅约4.17%。 行情展望：新疆主产区阿拉尔、阿克苏等产区下树进度在6-8成附近，受现货价 格下跌，在疆客商采购积极性减弱。据 Mysteel 农产品调研数据统计，截止 2025年11月14日红枣本周36家样本点物理库存在9840吨，较上周增加299吨， 环比增加3.31%，同比增加141.47%，样本点库存增加。正值新季收购阶段，在疆 客商挑选合适货源按需采购，关注产区新季收购进度。考虑到供应增加，枣价 仍弱势运行可能。 「 期现市场情况」 本周红枣期货价格走势 图1、郑枣主力合约价格走势 来源：郑商所 瑞达期货研究院 本周郑枣2601合约价格下跌，周度跌幅约4.17%。 4 「 期现市场情况」 本周郑枣期货前二十名持仓情况 图2 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, the raw material side of the natural rubber market was firm, and rubber prices rebounded slightly. The import rubber market's offer prices rose, while factories were cautious about restocking. The futures market showed a volatile and strengthening pattern, and the spot offer prices of domestic natural rubber adjusted within a narrow range. The trading volume of real orders was light [6]. - Globally, natural rubber producing areas are in the tapping season. Yunnan's raw material prices are stable, and the region is expected to enter the non - tapping season by the end of this month. Hainan's weather is favorable for tapping, and local factories are still offering higher prices for raw materials. The total inventory in Qingdao ports is still increasing, but the rate has slowed down. The bonded warehouse has a slight reduction in inventory, while the general trade warehouse continues to accumulate inventory. In the short term, the natural rubber inventory in Qingdao may still be in an accumulation state [6]. - In terms of demand, most semi - steel tire enterprises' production capacity utilization rates fluctuated slightly, while some full - steel tire enterprises had maintenance plans, which dragged down the overall capacity utilization rate. It is expected to decline further next week [6]. - The ru2601 contract is expected to fluctuate between 15000 - 15570 in the short term, and the nr2601 contract is expected to fluctuate between 12000 - 12600 [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - on - Week Summary - **Market Review**: The raw material side of the natural rubber market was firm, and rubber prices rebounded slightly. The import rubber market's offer prices rose, and the futures market was volatile and strengthening. The spot offer prices of domestic natural rubber adjusted within a narrow range, and real - order trading was light [6]. - **Market Outlook**: Yunnan is expected to enter the non - tapping season by the end of the month, while Hainan's tapping is progressing well. Qingdao's inventory is still accumulating, but the rate has slowed. The demand side shows that the capacity utilization rate of full - steel tire enterprises may decline further [6]. - **Strategy Suggestion**: The ru2601 contract is expected to fluctuate between 15000 - 15570, and the nr2601 contract is expected to fluctuate between 12000 - 12600 [6]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Markets - **Futures Market** - The main contract price of Shanghai rubber futures rose by 1.47% week - on - week, and the main contract price of 20 - grade rubber rose by 1.91% week - on - week [9]. - As of November 14, the 1 - 5 spread of Shanghai rubber was - 85, and the 1 - 2 spread of 20 - grade rubber was - 30 [19]. - As of November 14, the Shanghai rubber warehouse receipts were 108470 tons, a decrease of 10500 tons from last week; the 20 - grade rubber warehouse receipts were 49695 tons, an increase of 1109 tons from last week [25]. - **Spot Market** - As of November 13, the price of state - owned full - latex was 14800 yuan/ton, an increase of 300 yuan/ton from last week [27]. - As of November 13, the basis of 20 - grade rubber was 798 yuan/ton, a decrease of 102 yuan/ton from last week; the non - standard basis was - 610 yuan/ton, a decrease of 145 yuan/ton from last week [34]. 3.3 Industry Situation - **Upstream** - As of November 13, the field latex in Thailand's natural rubber raw material market was 56.3 (+0) Thai baht/kg; the cup lump was 52.1 (+0.2) Thai baht/kg. As of November 14, the theoretical processing profit of standard rubber was - 5.4 US dollars/ton, an increase of 18 US dollars/ton from last week [37]. - As of November 13, the latex price in Yunnan was 14000 yuan/ton, an increase of 200 yuan/ton from last week; the fresh latex price in Hainan was 14300 yuan/ton, the same as last week [40]. - **Import Volume** - In September 2025, China's natural rubber import volume was 59.59 tons, a month - on - month increase of 14.41% and a year - on - year increase of 20.92%. From January to September 2025, the cumulative import volume was 471.72 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 19.65% [43]. - **Inventory in Qingdao** - As of November 9, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao's bonded and general trade was 44.95 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.18 tons, an increase of 0.40%. The bonded area inventory was 6.78 tons, a decrease of 0.74%; the general trade inventory was 38.17 tons, an increase of 0.60% [47]. - **Downstream** - **Tire Production Capacity Utilization Rate**: As of November 13, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 72.99%, a month - on - month increase of 0.10 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 6.74 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of full - steel tire sample enterprises was 64.29%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.08 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 6.04 percentage points [50]. - **Tire Exports**: In September 2025, China's tire export volume was 68.78 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 10.57 and a year - on - year increase of 4.05%. From January to September 2025, the cumulative tire export volume was 639.08 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 4.88% [54]. - **Domestic Heavy - Truck Sales**: In October 2025, China's heavy - truck market sold about 93,000 vehicles (wholesale, including exports and new energy), a month - on - month decrease of about 12% and a year - on - year increase of about 40%. From January to October 2025, the cumulative sales volume exceeded 900,000 vehicles, reaching 916,000 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of about 22% [57]. 3.4 Option Market Analysis No information provided.

Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Views - The macro environment has shifted from strong expectations and weak reality to weak expectations and weak reality, with the guarantee of civilian heating energy taking precedence over safety production work in mid - November, affecting the market sentiment. The decline in crude steel production and poor real - estate investment data mean that coke profits have limited room for significant improvement. The main price of coking coal futures is expected to oscillate between 1130 - 1350, and the main price of coke futures between 1630 - 1850 [7]. Summary by Directory 1. Week - on - Week Summary - **Macro**: Hunan Yueyang Pingjiang County introduced new regulations to become the first county in Hunan to fully implement spot - house sales. The central bank's RMB loan balance reached 270 trillion yuan, and the social financing scale stock reached 437 trillion yuan. In October, residents' confidence in home - buying continued to decline [7]. - **Overseas**: Trump warned of an "economic disaster" if the Supreme Court rules against imposing comprehensive tariffs [7]. - **Supply and Demand**: The current iron - water output is 236.88 million tons, an increase of 2.66 million tons, and the total coke inventory is higher than the same period. The average profit per ton of coke for 30 independent coking plants is - 34 yuan/ton [7]. - **Technical**: The weekly K - line of the main coke contract 2601 is above the 60 - day average, showing a bullish trend [7]. - **Strategy**: The NDRC aims to stabilize energy production and supply. The market has shifted from strong expectations and weak reality to weak expectations and weak reality. The decline in crude steel production and poor real - estate investment data mean that coke profits have limited room for significant improvement. The main price of coking coal futures is expected to oscillate between 1130 - 1350, and the main price of coke futures between 1630 - 1850 [7]. 2. Futures and Spot Market - **Futures Market**: The contract holding volume increased by 1233 lots, and the coke monthly spread increased by 13 points. The registered warehouse receipt volume remained unchanged, and the screw - coke ratio increased by 0.10 points [9][13][15]. - **Spot Market**: As of November 13, 2025, the coke closing price at Rizhao Port was 1580 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous period. As of November 14, the coke basis was - 106.0 yuan, an increase of 90.5 points [25]. 3. Industrial Chain Situation - **Coal Mines**: The capacity utilization rate of 523 coking coal mines was 86.3%, an increase of 2.5%. The daily output of raw coal was 192.0 million tons, an increase of 5.6 million tons, and the raw coal inventory was 434.6 million tons, an increase of 15.3 million tons. The daily output of clean coal was 75.7 million tons, an increase of 1.9 million tons, and the clean coal inventory was 165.1 million tons, a decrease of 0.5 million tons [30]. - **Coal Washing Plants**: The capacity utilization rate of 314 independent coal - washing plants was 37.4%, a decrease of 0.18%. The daily output of clean coal was 27.4 million tons, a decrease of 0.1 million tons, and the clean coal inventory was 300.8 million tons, an increase of 5.9 million tons [30]. - **Coking Plants**: The capacity utilization rate of 230 independent coking enterprises was 71.10%, a decrease of 0.74%. The daily output of coke was 50.14 million tons, a decrease of 0.52 million tons. The average profit per ton of coke for 30 independent coking plants was - 34 yuan/ton [34]. - **Steel Mills**: The daily output of iron water was 236.88 million tons, an increase of 2.66 million tons compared with last week. As of November 14, 2025, the total coke inventory was 850.19 million tons, a decrease of 5.45 million tons compared with the previous period, and an increase of 8.63% compared with the same period last year [38]. - **Inventory Structure**: The port inventory decreased, and the steel - mill inventory decreased. The inventory of 18 ports was 259.50 million tons, a decrease of 3.01 million tons. The inventory of 247 steel mills was 622.4 million tons, a decrease of 4.24 million tons, and the available days of coke were 11.06 days, a decrease of 0.01 days [41][43]. - **Exports**: From January to September, the cumulative coke exports were 549 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 18.5%, and the cumulative steel exports were 8795.5 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.2% [47]. 4. Fundamental Data Charts - **Real Estate**: In October 2025, the second - hand housing prices in 70 large and medium - sized cities decreased by 0.70% month - on - month. As of the week of November 9, the commercial housing transaction area in 30 large - and medium - sized cities was 139.51 million square meters, a month - on - month decrease of 30.91% and a year - on - year decrease of 41.43% [50][51]. - **City - Tier Breakdown**: As of the week of November 9, the commercial housing transaction area in first - tier cities was 39.32 million square meters, a month - on - month decrease of 18.18% and a year - on - year decrease of 44.46%. The commercial housing transaction area in second - tier cities was 72.74 million square meters, a month - on - month decrease of 35.63% and a year - on - year decrease of 41.04% [56].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. 2. Core View of the Report - The lithium carbonate market is expected to be in a situation of both supply and demand growth. Due to better demand growth rate and expectations, the industrial inventory continues to decline. It is recommended to conduct short - term long positions at low prices with a light position and pay attention to controlling risks in trading rhythm [4][5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Weekly Key Points Summary - **Market Review**: The weekly line of the lithium carbonate main contract fluctuated strongly, with a gain of +6.15% and an amplitude of 9.16%. As of the end of this week, the closing price of the main contract was 87,360 yuan/ton [4]. - **Macro and Fundamental Information**: In October, the domestic power battery loading volume was 84.1GWh, a month - on - month increase of 10.7% and a year - on - year increase of 42.1%. The spot price of lithium carbonate has been continuously strengthening, driving up the price of lithium ore. Overseas miners are more willing to sell, and smelters are also more active in purchasing [4]. - **Supply and Demand Analysis**: Supply is expected to increase significantly as domestic lithium salt plants maintain a relatively high operating rate and imports are expected to rise after the arrival of goods from Chile. Demand from the power and energy storage sectors is driving downstream orders and production scheduling. The overall situation is one of both supply and demand growth, with inventory decreasing [4]. - **Trading Suggestion**: Conduct short - term long positions at low prices with a light position and control risks in trading rhythm [5]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **Futures Price**: As of November 14, 2025, the closing price of the lithium carbonate main contract was 87,360 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 5,060 yuan/ton. The near - far month spread was - 1,640 yuan/ton, remaining flat week - on - week [11]. - **Spot Price**: As of November 14, 2025, the average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 85,150 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 4,750 yuan/ton. The basis of the main contract was - 2,210 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 310 yuan/ton [17]. 3.3 Upstream Market - **Lithium Spodumene**: As of November 14, 2025, the average price of lithium spodumene concentrate (6% - 6.5%) was 952 US dollars/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 18 US dollars/ton. The US dollar - RMB spot exchange rate was 7.0959, a week - on - week decrease of 0.37% [21]. - **Lithium Mica**: As of November 14, 2025, the average price of lithium mica (Li₂O: 2.0% - 3%) was 3,360 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 300 yuan/ton. The average price of lithiophilite was 9,510 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 905 yuan/ton [26]. 3.4 Industry Situation - **Supply Side**: As of September 2025, the monthly import volume of lithium carbonate was 19,596.9 tons, a decrease of 2,250.01 tons from August, a decline of 10.3%, and a year - on - year increase of 20.49%. The monthly export volume was 150.816 tons, a decrease of 218.09 tons from August, a decline of 59.12%, and a year - on - year decrease of 9.07%. As of October 2025, the monthly output of lithium carbonate was 51,530 tons, an increase of 4,390 tons from September, an increase of 9.31%, and a year - on - year increase of 62.15%. The monthly operating rate was 43%, a month - on - month decrease of 5% and a year - on - year decrease of 32% [29]. - **Demand Side** - **Intermediate Products**: As of November 14, 2025, the average price of lithium hexafluorophosphate was 151,500 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 30,000 yuan/ton. As of September 2025, the monthly output of electrolyte was 211,050 tons, an increase of 18,950 tons from August, an increase of 9.86%, and a year - on - year increase of 45.25%. The price of lithium iron phosphate increased, and the monthly output increased. The price of ternary materials remained flat, and the output decreased. The price of lithium manganate remained flat, and the monthly output decreased. The price of lithium cobaltate remained flat, and the monthly output increased [33][38][41][46][49]. - **Application End**: As of October 2025, the penetration rate of new energy vehicles was 46.75%, a month - on - month increase of 0.66% and a year - on - year increase of 7.15%. The monthly output was 1,772,000 vehicles, a month - on - month increase of 9.59%, and the sales volume was 1,715,000 vehicles, a month - on - month increase of 6.92%. The cumulative export volume of new energy vehicles was 2.014 million, a year - on - year increase of 90.36% [52][56]. 3.5 Option Market - According to the option parity theory, the premium of the synthetic underlying asset is - 0.19, presenting a reverse arbitrage opportunity. Based on the performance of option at - the - money contracts and the fundamental situation, it is recommended to short volatility by constructing a short straddle option [59].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the domestic urea market was strong first and then weak, with the trading center rising slightly. The average price of mainstream small and medium - sized granules in Shandong increased by 30 yuan/ton week - on - week. The spot trading atmosphere cooled, and prices in some regions declined slightly [5]. - The resumption of previously overhauled plants led to an increase in domestic urea production. Considering planned plant changes and potential short - term faults, the probability of production increase is high next week. Agricultural demand is in the off - season, and the increase in compound fertilizer operating load may be slow due to environmental protection. Export demand is gradually increasing with the new quota. Urea enterprise inventories decreased this week, and short - term continued slight destocking is expected [5]. - The UR2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 1625 - 1680 in the short term [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Week - on - Week Key Points Summary - **Market Review**: The domestic urea market was first strong and then weak, with the average price of mainstream small and medium - sized granules in Shandong rising by 30 yuan/ton week - on - week. Spot trading cooled, and some regional prices declined slightly [5]. - **Market Outlook**: Production is likely to increase. Agricultural demand is in the off - season, compound fertilizer operating load increase may be slow, and export demand is rising. Urea enterprise inventories are expected to continue to decline slightly in the short term [5]. - **Strategy Suggestion**: The UR2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the 1625 - 1680 range in the short term [5]. 3.2. Futures Market Situation - **Price Trend**: The price of the Zhengzhou urea main contract oscillated and closed down this week, with a weekly decline of 0.9% [8]. - **Inter - period Spread**: As of November 14, the UR 1 - 5 spread was - 75 [11]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: As of November 14, there were 7183 Zhengzhou urea warehouse receipts, an increase of 4598 compared to last week [20]. 3.3. Spot Market Situation - **Domestic Spot Price**: As of November 13, the mainstream price in Shandong was 1600 yuan/ton (+20), and in Jiangsu was 1590 yuan/ton (+20) [26]. - **Foreign Spot Price**: As of November 13, the FOB China price of urea was 385 dollars/ton, an increase of 7.5 dollars/ton compared to last week [29]. - **Basis**: As of November 13, the urea basis was - 58 yuan/ton, an increase of 6 yuan/ton compared to last week [34]. 3.4. Upstream Situation - **Coal Price**: As of November 12, the market price of Qinhuangdao thermal coal with 5500 kcal was 700 yuan/ton, an increase of 5 yuan/ton compared to last week [38]. - **Natural Gas Price**: As of November 13, the closing price of NYMEX natural gas was 4.59 dollars/million British thermal units, an increase of 0.27 dollars/million British thermal units compared to last week [38]. 3.5. Industry Situation - **Production and Capacity Utilization**: As of November 13, China's urea production was 137.69 tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.24 tons (1.65%), and the capacity utilization rate was 84.08%, a week - on - week increase of 1.37% [41]. - **Inventory**: As of November 13, the port sample inventory of Chinese urea was 8.2 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.3 tons (3.8%). As of November 12, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 148.36 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 9.45 tons (5.99%) [44]. - **Export**: In September 2025, urea exports were 137.12 tons, a month - on - month increase of 72.12%, and the average export price was 424.93 dollars/ton, a month - on - month increase of 93.01% [47]. 3.6. Downstream Situation - **Compound Fertilizer**: As of November 13, the capacity utilization rate of compound fertilizers was 30.32%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.72 percentage points. The increase in operating load may be slow next week [50]. - **Melamine**: As of November 13, the weekly average capacity utilization rate of Chinese melamine was 57.48%, an increase of 4.28 percentage points compared to last week [50].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The hog price fluctuated, with the main contract 2601 down 0.76% weekly. The supply is at a relatively high level due to the higher-than-normal inventory of breeding sows in the corresponding cycle and the normal slaughter of large-scale farms. The second-round fattening is cautious, and smallholders are reluctant to sell due to price drops. The demand has improved but with limited growth as it's not yet the peak season for curing bacon. Overall, the price is expected to fluctuate slightly downward under the supply-demand game [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Weekly Highlights Summary - The hog price fluctuated, and the main contract 2601 dropped 0.76% weekly. The supply is relatively high, the second-round fattening is cautious, smallholders are reluctant to sell, the demand has improved but with limited growth, and the price is expected to fluctuate slightly downward [7]. 3.2 Futures Market Situation - The futures price declined this week, with the main contract 2601 down 0.76% weekly [11]. - The net short position in futures increased, and there were 90 futures warrants [13][15]. - The spread between lh2601 and lh2603 contracts was 210, and the spread between lh2601 and lh2605 contracts was -420 [20]. 3.3 Spot Market Situation - The basis of the hog 1-month contract was 125 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 3-month contract was 335 yuan/ton this week [25]. - The national average hog price was 11.94 yuan/kg, down 0.04 yuan/kg from last week, and the average price of 15 kg weaned piglets was 23.69 yuan/kg, up 0.07 yuan/kg [34]. - The national pork market price was 23.17 yuan/kg, down 0.08 yuan/kg from the previous week, and the average price of binary sows was 32.47 yuan/kg, unchanged from the previous week [39]. - The pig-grain ratio was 5.60 as of November 5, up 0.06 from the previous week, but still below 6:1 [43]. 3.4 Upstream Situation - In Q3 2025, the inventory of breeding sows was 40.35 million heads, down 30,000 heads (0.2%) month-on-month and 0.7% year-on-year, equivalent to 103.5% of the normal inventory. In October, the inventory of breeding sows in large-scale farms increased 0.12% month-on-month and 0.83% year-on-year, while that in small and medium-sized farms decreased 0.14% month-on-month and increased 0.89% year-on-year [48]. - In Q3 2025, the hog inventory was 436.8 million heads, up 2.9% month-on-month and 2.3% year-on-year. In October, the inventory of commercial hogs in large-scale farms increased 0.10% month-on-month and 5.16% year-on-year, and that in small and medium-sized farms increased 1.84% month-on-month and 6.45% year-on-year [52]. - In October, the slaughter volume of commercial hogs in large-scale farms was 11.4395 million heads, up 11.96% month-on-month and 17.56% year-on-year, and that in small and medium-sized farms was 0.5258 million heads, up 9.48% month-on-month and 27.06% year-on-year. The average slaughter weight of domestic ternary hogs this week was 123.52 kg, up 0.27 kg from last week [57]. 3.5 Industry Situation - As of November 14, the breeding profit of purchased piglets was a loss of 205.64 yuan/head, with the loss widening by 30.1 yuan/head, and the breeding profit of self-reproduced and self-raised hogs was a loss of 114.81 yuan/head, with the loss widening by 25.6 yuan/head [62]. - From January to September 2025, China imported 790,000 tons of pork, with an average monthly import of 87,800 tons. In September, the pork import volume was 80,000 tons, down 20% year-on-year [63][67]. - As of the week of November 14, the price of white-striped chickens was 13.9 yuan/kg, up 0.10 yuan/kg from last week. As of the week of November 13, the average price difference between standard and fattened hogs was -0.7 yuan/kg, widening by 0.01 yuan/kg from last week [72]. - As of November 14, the spot price of soybean meal was 3,124 yuan/ton, up 26.29 yuan/ton from the previous week, and the corn price was 2,270.98 yuan/ton, up 32.45 yuan/ton from the previous week [77]. - As of November 14, the closing price of the Dalian Commodity Exchange hog feed cost index was 909.77, and the price of finishing pig compound feed was 3.33 yuan/kg, unchanged from last week [80]. - As of September 2025, the monthly feed output was 31.287 million tons, up 2.015 million tons month-on-month. In October 2025, the sales of piglet feed increased 0.42% month-on-month and 0.56% year-on-year [84]. - As of October 2025, China's CPI increased 0.2% year-on-year [89]. 3.6 Downstream Situation - In the 46th week, the slaughtering enterprise's开工 rate was 33.90%, up 0.43 percentage points from last week and 4.64 percentage points year-on-year. The fresh sales rate of key domestic slaughtering enterprises was 85.51%, down 0.76% from last week, and the frozen product storage rate was 18.32%, up 0.08% from last week [92]. - As of September 2025, the slaughter volume of designated hog slaughtering enterprises was 35.84 million heads, up 6.99% from the previous month. In October 2025, the national catering revenue was 519.9 billion yuan, up 3.76% year-on-year [97]. 3.7 Hog Stocks - The report shows the trend charts of Muyuan Co., Ltd. and Wens Co., Ltd. [101]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - The coking coal futures price is expected to oscillate in the range of 1130 - 1350, and the coke futures price in the range of 1630 - 1850. The macro - face has shifted from strong expectation and weak reality to weak expectation and weak reality. The demand for coking coal is affected by the decline in crude steel production and poor real - estate investment data. The profit of coke has limited room for significant improvement [8]. Summary by Directory 1. Week - to - Week Summary 1.1 Market Review - The daily average output of raw coal from 523 coking coal mines is 192.0 tons, a week - on - week increase of 5.6 tons [7]. - The daily output of clean coal from 314 independent coal washing plants is 27.4 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.1 tons [7]. - The total inventory of coking coal (independent coking plants + 6 major ports + steel mills) is 2012.83 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.61 tons and a year - on - year increase of 3.47% [7]. - The warehouse receipt price of Tangshan Mongolian No. 5 clean coal is 1550, with a discounted futures price of 1330 [7]. - The average profit per ton of coke from 30 independent coking plants nationwide is - 34 yuan/ton [7]. - The profitability rate of steel mills is 38.96%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.87 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 18.62 percentage points [7]. - The daily average output of hot metal is 236.88 tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.66 tons and a year - on - year increase of 0.94 tons [7]. 1.2 Market Outlook - Macroscopically, the "anti - involution" policy has led to the first month - on - month increase in PPI since last November, and the year - on - year decline has reached the smallest in over a year. The NDRC and NEA have issued guidelines for new energy consumption and regulation, and the NDRC has organized a video conference on energy supply guarantee for the heating season [8]. - Overseas, Trump warned of an "economic disaster" if the Supreme Court rules against imposing comprehensive tariffs [8]. - In terms of supply and demand, the utilization rate of mine production capacity has rebounded, the inventory is neutral, and the total inventory shows a seasonal upward trend [8]. - Technically, the weekly K - line of the coking coal main contract 2601 is above the 60 - day average, indicating a bullish weekly trend [8]. 2. Futures and Spot Market - The open interest of coking coal futures decreased by 21,000 lots, and the monthly spread increased by 11.54 points. As of November 14, the open interest was 935,700 lots, and the 5 - 1 contract spread was 58.0, a week - on - week increase of 11.5 points [10][12]. - The number of registered coking coal warehouse receipts decreased by 300 lots, and the ratio of the January contracts of coke and coking coal increased by 0.02 week - on - week [16]. - The ex - factory price of Mongolian coking coal remained flat week - on - week. As of November 13, 2025, the ex - factory price of Mongolian No. 5 coking coal at the Ganqimao Port was 1380 yuan/ton, and the basis of coking coal was 186.0 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 146.5 points [23]. 3. Industrial Chain Situation 3.1 Mine and Coal - Washing Plant - The utilization rate of production capacity of 523 coking coal mines was 86.3%, a week - on - week increase of 2.5%. The daily average output of raw coal was 192.0 tons, a week - on - week increase of 5.6 tons; the raw coal inventory was 434.6 tons, a week - on - week increase of 15.3 tons; the daily output of clean coal was 75.7 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.9 tons; the clean coal inventory was 165.1 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.5 tons [28]. - The utilization rate of production capacity of 314 independent coal - washing plants was 37.4%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.18%. The daily output of clean coal was 27.4 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.1 tons; the clean coal inventory was 300.8 tons, a week - on - week increase of 5.9 tons [28]. 3.2 Coking and Iron - Making - The utilization rate of production capacity of 230 independent coking enterprises was 71.10%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.74%. The daily output of coke was 50.14 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.52 tons [32]. - The daily average output of hot metal was 236.88 tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.66 tons and a year - on - year increase of 0.94 tons [32]. 3.3 Inventory - The total inventory of coking coal (independent coking plants + 6 major ports + steel mills) was 2012.83 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.61 tons and a year - on - year increase of 3.47% [36]. - The inventory of imported coking coal at 16 ports decreased by 39.18 tons. Among them, the inventory at 3 ports in North China decreased by 12.18 tons, at 2 ports in Northeast China decreased by 7.00 tons, at 9 ports in East China increased by 2.00 tons, and at 2 ports in South China decreased by 22.00 tons [36]. - The available days of coking coal inventory in independent coking plants increased by 0.13 days. The coking coal inventory was 922.78 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.05 tons, and the available days were 13.8 days [40]. - The coking coal inventory of 247 steel mills was at a relatively high level compared with the same period. The coking coal inventory was 790.17 tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.87 tons, and the available days were 12.87 days, a week - on - week increase of 0.03 days; the pulverized coal injection inventory was 425.25 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2.00 tons, and the available days were 12.45 days, a week - on - week decrease of 0.03 days [43]. 3.4 Profitability - The profitability rate of steel mills decreased due to cost increase and demand decline. The average profit per ton of coke from 30 independent coking plants was - 34 yuan/ton. The average profit of quasi - first - grade coke in Shanxi was - 37 yuan/ton, in Shandong was 26 yuan/ton, in Inner Mongolia's second - grade coke was - 90 yuan/ton, and in Hebei's quasi - first - grade coke was 16 yuan/ton [47][49]. 3.5 Policy and Production - The NDRC aims to continuously enhance the coal production and supply capacity and strengthen the coal's supporting role. From January to September 2025, the production of industrial raw coal above the designated size was 3.57 billion tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.0%. In September, the production was 410 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.8%, and the daily average output was 1.372 million tons. The decline in raw coal production has narrowed [53]. - In September 2025, China's coking coal production was 3.97592 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 7.55% [53]. 3.6 Import - From January to September 2025, the cumulative import volume of coking coal was 8.35311 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 6.03%. In September, the import volume continued to increase, driven by the improvement of import profit [58].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating provided in the report. 2. Core View - On Thursday, most prices of the container shipping index (European line) futures declined. The main contract EC2602 dropped 2.3%, and the far - month contracts fell between 1 - 2%. The latest SCFIS European line settlement freight rate index rose 24.5% week - on - week, which is expected to support the recovery of near - month freight rates. However, the recovery of terminal transport demand is not solid. The price increase by shipping companies in late November has basically failed, and the quotations at the end of November vary widely. The geopolitical situation in the Middle East has postponed the expectation of Red Sea re - navigation. The German economy has boosted market confidence and is expected to drive the eurozone economy to recover. The current freight rate market is greatly affected by news, and the futures price is expected to fluctuate more. Investors are advised to be cautious and pay attention to operation rhythm and risk control, and track geopolitical, capacity and cargo volume data [1]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market Data - EC main contract closing price: 1632.000, down 38.5; EC secondary main contract closing price: 1170.3, down 16.90. - EC2602 - EC2605 spread: 461.70, down 2.90; EC2602 - EC2606 spread: 251.30, down 20.60. - EC contract basis: - 127.20, up 300.69. - EC main contract open interest: 37284, up 4383 [1]. 3.2 Spot Market Data - SCFIS (European line) (weekly): 1504.80, up 296.09; SCFIS (US West line) (weekly): 1327.91, up 62.56. - SCFI (composite index) (weekly): 1495.10, down 55.60; container ship capacity: 1227.97 (ten thousand TEUs), unchanged. - CCFI (composite index) (weekly): 1058.17, up 36.78; CCFI (European line) (weekly): 1366.85, up 43.04. - Baltic Dry Index (daily): 2030.00, up 42.00; Panama freight index (daily): 1887.00, down 22.00. - Average charter price (Panamax): 17564.00, unchanged; average charter price (Capesize): 24050.00, down 3485.00 [1]. 3.3 Industry News - The US House of Representatives will vote on a temporary appropriation bill on Wednesday evening. The 43 - day US federal government shutdown crisis is about to end. The government shutdown may reduce the fourth - quarter economic growth by two percentage points, and the October CPI and employment reports "may never be released". - Boston Fed President Collins believes the threshold for further interest rate cuts in the short term is "relatively high" due to concerns about high inflation. Fed Governor Milan expects inflation to fall and calls for interest rate cuts. Fed's Bostic prefers to keep interest rates unchanged until there is "clear evidence" that inflation is returning to the 2% target. - Chinese President Xi Jinping met with King Felipe VI of Spain. China is willing to import more high - quality Spanish products, explore cooperation potential in emerging fields, expand mutual investment, and jointly explore third - party markets such as Latin America. After the meeting, the two heads of state witnessed the signing of 10 cooperation documents in economic, trade, science and technology, and education fields [1]. 3.4 Key Data to Watch - November 14, 10:00: Year - on - year growth rate of China's total retail sales of consumer goods in October; year - on - year growth rate of China's industrial added value above designated size in October. - November 14, 15:45: Final monthly rate of France's CPI in October. - November 14, 18:00: Revised annual rate of the eurozone's GDP in the third quarter; preliminary quarterly rate of the eurozone's seasonally - adjusted employment in the third quarter [1].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The rapeseed meal market is in a situation of weak supply and demand. Supply - side pressure is small due to limited imports and widespread oil - mill shutdowns, but demand is weakening as aquaculture demand declines and soybean supply is relatively abundant. The price of rapeseed meal has slightly declined recently, and future attention should be paid to Sino - Canadian trade policies [2]. - The rapeseed oil market will continue the de - stocking mode, which supports its price. However, the demand for rapeseed oil remains mainly at the basic level due to the abundant supply and good substitution advantage of soybean oil. Recently, the futures price of rapeseed oil has strengthened significantly, and short - term trading is recommended [2]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - Futures closing prices: The closing price of the active contract of rapeseed oil is 9975 yuan/ton, up 135 yuan; that of rapeseed meal is 2492 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan; ICE rapeseed is 646.6 Canadian dollars/ton, up 4.1 Canadian dollars; and rapeseed is 5116 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan [2]. - Month - to - month spreads: The 1 - 5 month - to - month spread of rapeseed oil is 491 yuan/ton, up 41 yuan; that of rapeseed meal is 63 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan [2]. - Main contract positions: The main contract position of rapeseed oil is 237907 lots, up 15923 lots; that of rapeseed meal is 479461 lots, up 10597 lots [2]. - Net long positions of the top 20 futures holders: The net long position of rapeseed oil is 5630 lots, up 3174 lots; that of rapeseed meal is 33514 lots, down 2339 lots [2]. - Warehouse receipt quantities: The warehouse receipt quantity of rapeseed oil is 5323 sheets, down 50 sheets; that of rapeseed meal is 2745 sheets, unchanged [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - Spot prices: The spot price of rapeseed oil in Jiangsu is 10260 yuan/ton, up 150 yuan; that of rapeseed meal in Nantong is 2500 yuan/ton, unchanged; that of rapeseed in Yancheng, Jiangsu is 5700 yuan/ton, unchanged; that of fourth - grade soybean oil in Nanjing is 8550 yuan/ton, unchanged; that of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong is 8570 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan; and that of soybean meal in Zhangjiagang is 3050 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - Average prices: The average price of rapeseed oil is 10353.75 yuan/ton, up 126.25 yuan; the import cost price of imported rapeseed is 7971.47 yuan/ton, up 15.44 yuan [2]. - Basis: The basis of the main rapeseed oil contract is 285 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan; that of the main rapeseed meal contract is 8 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan [2]. - Price spreads: The spot price spread between rapeseed oil and soybean oil is 1710 yuan/ton, up 150 yuan; that between rapeseed oil and palm oil is 1690 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan; and that between soybean meal and rapeseed meal is 550 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - Production: The global rapeseed production forecast for the year is 90.96 million tons, up 1.38 million tons; the annual forecast production of rapeseed is 13446 thousand tons, up 1068 thousand tons [2]. - Imports: The total rapeseed import volume for the month is 11.53 tons, down 13.13 tons; the import volume of rapeseed oil and mustard oil for the month is 16 tons, up 2 tons; and the import volume of rapeseed meal for the month is 15.77 tons, down 5.57 tons [2]. - Inventory and开机 rate: The total inventory of rapeseed in oil mills is 0.5 tons, down 0.5 tons; the weekly开机 rate of imported rapeseed is 0%, down 1.6 percentage points [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - Inventory: The coastal rapeseed oil inventory is 2.6 tons, down 1.2 tons; the coastal rapeseed meal inventory is 0.5 tons, down 0.21 tons; the rapeseed oil inventory in East China is 42.42 tons, down 5.38 tons; the rapeseed meal inventory in East China is 25.45 tons, down 0.6 tons; the rapeseed oil inventory in Guangxi is 1.8 tons, down 0.6 tons; and the rapeseed meal inventory in South China is 20.8 tons, up 0.1 tons [2]. -提货量: The weekly提货量 of rapeseed oil is 1.31 tons, down 0.53 tons; that of rapeseed meal is 0.2 tons, down 0.19 tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - Production: The monthly production of feed is 3128.7 tons, up 201.5 tons; the monthly production of edible vegetable oil is 495 tons, up 44.4 tons [2]. - Consumption: The monthly total retail sales of social consumer goods for catering is 4508.6 billion yuan, up 12.9 billion yuan [2]. 3.6 Option Market - Implied volatility: The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for rapeseed meal is 20.6%, down 0.34 percentage points; that of at - the - money put options for rapeseed meal is 20.6%, down 0.34 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money call options for rapeseed oil is 12.47%, down 1.49 percentage points; and that of at - the - money put options for rapeseed oil is 12.47%, down 1.5 percentage points [2]. - Historical volatility: The 20 - day historical volatility of rapeseed meal is 24.18%, up 0.08 percentage points; the 60 - day historical volatility of rapeseed meal is 24.97%, down 1.51 percentage points; the 20 - day historical volatility of rapeseed oil is 14.38%, up 0.23 percentage points; and the 60 - day historical volatility of rapeseed oil is 15.25%, down 0.62 percentage points [2]. 3.7 Industry News - On November 12, 2025, ICE rapeseed futures closed slightly higher, with the January contract up 1.90 Canadian dollars to 647.40 Canadian dollars per ton [2]. - Analysts expect the USDA to lower the U.S. soybean yield forecast from 53.5 bushels per acre in September to 53.1 bushels per acre, which supports the U.S. soybean market and benefits the domestic meal market through cost transmission. However, the recent rise of U.S. soybeans has slowed down [2]. - Sino - Canadian trade negotiations have not made a breakthrough on rapeseed tariffs, restricting the import of Canadian rapeseed and rapeseed meal in the near term [2]. 3.8 Rapeseed Meal Viewpoint Summary - The rapeseed meal market is in a situation of weak supply and demand. Supply is restricted by trade policies and oil - mill shutdowns, while demand is weakened by the decline of aquaculture demand and the substitution of soybean meal. The price of rapeseed meal has slightly declined recently, and future attention should be paid to Sino - Canadian trade policies [2]. 3.9 Rapeseed Oil Viewpoint Summary - The rapeseed oil market will continue the de - stocking mode, which supports its price. However, the demand for rapeseed oil remains mainly at the basic level due to the substitution of soybean oil. Recently, the futures price of rapeseed oil has strengthened significantly, and short - term trading is recommended [2].

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report [3] Group 2: Core View - The lead supply may increase but is difficult to rise significantly The demand from lead - acid battery enterprises is recovering, but the export of lead - acid batteries is under pressure, and downstream procurement is cautious The lead ingot inventory may change, and the Shanghai lead is expected to fluctuate with limited upside height It is recommended to short on rallies and lay out short positions at high prices [3] Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Futures Market - The closing price of the main Shanghai lead contract is 17,650 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan The 3 - month LME lead quote is 2,092 dollars/ton, up 25 dollars The 12 - 01 month contract spread of Shanghai lead is - 20 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan The Shanghai lead open interest is 128,847 lots, up 1,473 lots The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai lead is - 1,218 lots, down 271 lots The Shanghai lead warehouse receipts are 25,824 tons, up 1,138 tons The SHFE inventory is 38,582 tons, up 2,583 tons The LME lead inventory is 225,225 tons, down 1,500 tons [3] 2. Spot Market - The spot price of 1 lead from Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network is 17,500 yuan/ton, up 175 yuan The spot price of 1 lead from Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals Market is 17,710 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan The basis of the lead main contract is - 150 yuan/ton, up 185 yuan The LME lead premium (0 - 3) is - 23.9 dollars/ton, down 3.01 dollars [3] 3. Upstream Situation - The average operating rate of primary lead is 69.54%, down 3.45 percentage points The weekly output of primary lead is 3.83 tons, down 0.03 tons The processing fee of 60% lead concentrate at major ports is - 90 dollars/kiloton The global lead mine output is 383.3 kilotons, up 3.4 kilotons The lead ore import volume is 15.06 tons, up 1.58 tons [3] 4. Industry Situation - The refined lead import volume is 1,507.92 tons, down 312.63 tons The refined lead export volume is 1,486.13 tons, down 1,266.09 tons The export volume of batteries is 45,696 units, down 3,984 units The average price of waste batteries is 10,021.43 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan The average price of lead - antimony alloy is 19,725 yuan/ton, up 150 yuan [3] 5. Downstream Situation - The output of automobiles is 322.7 tons, up 47.46 tons The output of new energy vehicles is 158 tons, up 24.7 tons The Shenwan industry index of batteries is 2,179.75 points, down 62.93 points [3] 6. Industry News - The US House of Representatives will vote on a bill to end the government shutdown The US Supreme Court will hold an oral debate on Trump's request to fire Fed Governor Cook The White House says October non - farm and inflation data may not be released Atlanta Fed President Bostic will retire in February and reaffirmed a hawkish stance New York Fed President Williams said the time to restart bond purchases is approaching [3] 7. View Summary - Supply growth is limited due to smelter overhauls and environmental protection measures Demand is supported by the traditional peak season and battery companies' expansion but is suppressed by export pressure and cautious procurement The lead ingot social inventory is at a relatively low level but may change The Shanghai lead is expected to fluctuate with limited upside It is recommended to short on rallies [3]