锰硅硅铁产业日报 2026/1/7 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任何保证，据此投资，责任 自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任 何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为瑞 达 研 究瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖 原意的引用、删节和修改。 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | SM主力合约收盘价（日，元/吨） | 6,000.00 | +82.00↑ SF主力合约收盘价（日，元/吨） | 5,860.00 | +84.00↑ | | | SM期货合约持仓量（日，手） | 620,191.00 | +59937.00↑ SF期货合约持仓量（日，手） | 390,166.00 | -5013.00↓ | | | 锰硅前20名净持仓（日，手） | -81, ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - The market is in a game between weak reality and strong expectations. The short - term near - month contracts may be in a state of wide - range low - level oscillation, while the far - month contracts are expected to perform better than the near - month ones under the expectation of declining production capacity. It is advisable to try to go long on the far - month contracts with a light position [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the active egg futures contract is 3011 yuan/500 kilograms, with a week - on - week increase of 11; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 30455 hands, a decrease of 739 hands; the egg futures spread between May and September is - 408 yuan/500 kilograms, an increase of 17; the futures open interest of the active contract is 244170 hands, an increase of 12584 hands; the registered warehouse receipt volume is 2 hands, a decrease of 21 hands [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The spot price of eggs is 3.27 yuan/jin, with a week - on - week increase of 0.09; the basis (spot - futures) is 255 yuan/500 kilograms, an increase of 76 [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The laying hen inventory index nationwide is 112.03 (2015 = 100), a decrease of 2.21; the culled laying hen index nationwide is 101.18 (2015 = 100), a decrease of 13.26; the average price of layer chicks in the main producing areas is 2.8 yuan/feather, unchanged; the new chick index nationwide is 93.62 (2015 = 100), an increase of 26.53; the average price of layer compound feed is 2.8 yuan/kg, unchanged; the breeding profit of laying hens is - 0.39 yuan/hen, an increase of 0.08; the average price of culled chickens in the main producing areas is 7.9 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.16; the age of culled chickens nationwide is 500 days, a decrease of 10 days [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The average wholesale price of pork is 17.95 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.04; the average wholesale price of 28 key - monitored vegetables is 5.57 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.04; the average wholesale price of dressed chickens is 17.74 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.02; the weekly inventory in the circulation link is 1.21 days, an increase of 0.09; the weekly inventory in the production link is 1.09 days, an increase of 0.09; the monthly export volume of fresh eggs is 13394.53 tons, an increase of 178.74 tons [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The weekly consumption of eggs in the sales areas is 7147 tons, an increase of 124 tons [2] 3.6 Industry News - Today, the average price of eggs in Shandong's main producing area is 6.51 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.21 compared with yesterday; in Hebei, it is 6.07 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.18; in Guangdong, it is 7.07 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.20; in Beijing, it is 6.50 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.20. The continuous losses of the breeding end have led to a decline in the enthusiasm for replenishment and an increase in the culling volume of old hens. The laying hen inventory has continued to decline from a high level, and the market atmosphere has improved slightly [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - On Wednesday, the RB2605 contract increased in volume and rose. The central bank released a loose monetary policy to boost market confidence, and the strong rise of furnace materials led to the upward movement of finished products. The overall view is oscillating to the upside, with attention to risk control [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the RB main contract was 3,187 yuan/ton, up 76 yuan; the position volume was 1,741,383 lots, up 178,435 lots; the net position of the top 20 in the RB contract was -879 lots, up 3,073 lots; the RB5 - 10 contract spread was -48 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan; the RB warehouse receipt at the SHFE was 77,844 tons, down 600 tons; the HC2605 - RB2605 contract spread was 145 yuan/ton, down 7 yuan [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The price of HRB400E 20MM in Hangzhou (theoretical weight) was 3,360 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan; (actual weight) was 3,446 yuan/ton, up 51 yuan. In Guangzhou (theoretical weight), it was 3,520 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan; in Tianjin (theoretical weight), it was 3,180 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan. The basis of the RB main contract was 173 yuan/ton, down 26 yuan; the spot price difference between hot - rolled coils and rebar in Hangzhou was -20 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The price of 61.5% PB iron ore fines at Qingdao Port was 823 yuan/wet ton, up 21 yuan; the first - grade metallurgical coke at Tianjin Port was 1,540 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of 6 - 8mm scrap steel in Tangshan was 2,160 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Q235 billets in Hebei was 2,950 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan. The inventory of iron ore at 45 ports was 158.6194 million tons, up 3.538 million tons; the coke inventory of sample coking plants was 486,000 tons, down 13,700 tons; the coke inventory of sample steel mills was 6.4383 million tons, up 14,300 tons; the billet inventory in Tangshan was 1.2661 million tons, up 86,000 tons. The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 78.96%, up 0.66%; the blast furnace capacity utilization rate was 85.28%, up 0.32% [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The weekly output of rebar from sample steel mills was 1.8439 million tons, up 27,100 tons; the capacity utilization rate was 40.42%, up 0.59%. The mill inventory of rebar from sample steel mills was 1.4006 million tons, up 5,200 tons; the social inventory of rebar in 35 cities was 2.9419 million tons, down 188,100 tons. The operating rate of independent electric arc furnace steel mills was 69.79%, up 2.08%. The monthly output of domestic crude steel was 69.87 million tons, down 2.13 million tons; the monthly output of Chinese steel bars was 14.34 million tons, up 590,000 tons; the net export volume of steel was 9.48 million tons, up 200,000 tons [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The national real estate climate index was 91.90, down 0.52; the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of fixed - asset investment was -2.60%, down 0.90; the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of real estate development investment was -15.90%, down 1.20; the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of infrastructure construction investment was -1.10%, down 1.00. The cumulative value of housing construction area was 6.56066 billion square meters, down 31.27 million square meters; the cumulative value of new housing construction area was 534.57 million square meters, down 43.95 million square meters; the area of unsold commercial housing was 393.61 million square meters, up 2.84 million square meters [2] 3.6 Industry News - In January 2026, the planned volume of rebar shipped south from Northeast China was 380,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 45,000 tons and a month - on - month decrease of 14,000 tons; the planned volume of wire rod shipped south was 246,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 22,000 tons and a month - on - month increase of 10,000 tons. In December, 26 national construction steel production enterprises carried out production reduction and maintenance, 16 less than the previous month, and the impact on production increased month - on - month, with the estimated impact on construction steel production being 2.5921 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 28.74% [2] 3.7 Key Points of Attention - The weekly output of rebar, mill inventory, and social inventory on Thursday [2]

| | | 甲醇产业日报 2026-01-07 状态，国内甲醇制烯烃行业开工率小幅下降，短期华东MTO企业负荷仍有降低，但青海盐湖MTO装置计划 研究员: 林静宜 期货从业资格号F03139610 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0021558 重启，行业开工率存提升预期。MA2605合约短线预计在2200-2300区间波动。 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为 瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 主力合约收盘价甲醇(日,元/吨) | 2267 | -26 甲醇5-9价差(日,元/吨) | 20 | -3 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The probability of an increase in urea production is relatively high. The current agricultural demand is in the traditional off - season, the trading atmosphere is tepid, and downstream buyers are resistant to high - priced goods, mostly adopting a just - in - time purchasing strategy. Industrial demand maintains rigid procurement, and the operating rate of compound fertilizer enterprises fluctuates slightly. The inventory of domestic urea enterprises fluctuates little, and the inventory reduction amplitude is limited. With the recent increase in urea prices, the downstream trend of chasing price increases may slow down, and the short - term inventory reduction amplitude of urea enterprises is expected to be limited. The UR2605 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 1750 - 1800 in the short term [2]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the Zhengzhou urea main contract is 1790 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 12 yuan/ton; the 5 - 9 spread of Zhengzhou urea is 21 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 12 yuan/ton [2]. - The position volume of the Zhengzhou urea main contract is 232,995 lots, with a week - on - week increase of 2,435 lots; the net position of the top 20 in Zhengzhou urea is - 26,928 lots, with a week - on - week decrease of 690 lots [2]. - The exchange warehouse receipts of Zhengzhou urea are 12,619 lots, with no week - on - week change [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The spot prices in Hebei, Henan, Jiangsu, Shandong, and Anhui are 1740 yuan/ton, 1750 yuan/ton, 1750 yuan/ton, 1750 yuan/ton, and 1740 yuan/ton respectively, with week - on - week increases of 10 yuan/ton, 30 yuan/ton, 20 yuan/ton, 10 yuan/ton, and 20 yuan/ton [2]. - The basis of the Zhengzhou urea main contract is - 40 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 2 yuan/ton [2]. - The FOB price in the Baltic Sea is 355 US dollars/ton, and the FOB price at the main Chinese port is 400 US dollars/ton, both with no week - on - week change [2]. 3.3 Industry Situation - The port inventory is 17.7 million tons, with a week - on - week increase of 3.9 million tons; the enterprise inventory is 102.22 million tons, with a week - on - week increase of 0.3 million tons [2]. - The operating rate of urea enterprises is 80.29%, with a week - on - week increase of 1.52 percentage points; the daily urea output is 194,200 tons, with a week - on - week increase of 3,700 tons [2]. - The urea export volume is 60 million tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 60 million tons; the monthly output of urea is 6,000,330 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 129,060 tons [2]. 3.4 Downstream Situation - The operating rate of compound fertilizer is 33.89%, with a week - on - week decrease of 3.86 percentage points; the operating rate of melamine is 47.65%, with a week - on - week decrease of 10.42 percentage points [2]. - The weekly profit of compound fertilizer in China is 143 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 3 yuan/ton; the weekly profit of melamine with externally purchased urea is - 108 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 72 yuan/ton [2]. - The monthly output of compound fertilizer is 438.25 million tons, with a month - on - month increase of 75.38 million tons; the weekly output of melamine is 30,200 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 300 tons [2]. 3.5 Industry News - As of January 7, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 102.22 million tons, an increase of 0.30 million tons from the previous week, a week - on - week increase of 0.29%. The inventory of domestic urea enterprises fluctuated little compared with the previous period, with local inventory rising and falling differently [2]. - As of December 31, the sample inventory of Chinese urea ports was 17.2 million tons, a decrease of 0.5 million tons from the previous week, a week - on - week decrease of 2.82%. The ports changed little this week. As the holiday approached, the pace of manufacturers' goods collection to ports slowed down, and most ports remained at a low level [2]. - As of December 31, the urea output in China was 359,100 tons, an increase of 25,700 tons from the previous week, a week - on - week increase of 1.93%; the average daily output was 194,200 tons, an increase of 3,700 tons from the previous week. The resumption of some previously overhauled devices drove an increase in domestic urea output. It is expected that the devices of 3 enterprises will be shut down this week, and the devices of 5 shut - down enterprises may resume production [2]. 3.6 Suggested Attention - Pay attention to the enterprise inventory, port inventory, daily output, and operating rate data from Longzhong on Thursday [2].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The supply of domestic butadiene rubber is expected to continue increasing due to sufficient resources at the spot end and increased production loads of some manufacturers. Meanwhile, downstream demand is affected by maintenance and production control, and the inventory level may further rise this week. The capacity utilization rate of domestic tire enterprises decreased last week but may slightly rebound this week. The short - term price of the br2603 contract is expected to fluctuate between 11,700 - 12,300 yuan/ton [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract of synthetic rubber is 12,155 yuan/ton, and the position volume is 33,981 (a decrease of 3,312). The 2 - 3 spread of synthetic rubber is - 30 yuan/ton, and the total warehouse receipt quantity of butadiene rubber is 4,560 tons with no change [2]. Spot Market - The mainstream prices of BR9000 from different manufacturers increased. The mainstream price of BR9000 from Qilu Petrochemical and Daqing Petrochemical in Shandong is 11,750 yuan/ton (a rise of 150 yuan/ton), and that from Maoming Petrochemical in Guangdong is 11,800 yuan/ton (a rise of 100 yuan/ton). The basis of synthetic rubber is - 305 yuan/ton. The price of Brent crude oil is 60.7 dollars/barrel (a decrease of 1.06 dollars/barrel), and the price of WTI crude oil is 57.13 dollars/barrel (a decrease of 1.19 dollars/barrel). The price of Northeast Asian ethylene is 745 dollars/ton, the price of naphtha CFR Japan is 534.25 dollars/ton, the intermediate price of butadiene CFR China is 985 dollars/ton (a rise of 10 dollars/ton), and the mainstream price of butadiene in Shandong market is 9,150 yuan/ton (a rise of 200 yuan/ton) [2]. Upstream Situation - The weekly capacity of butadiene is 15.93 million tons with no change, and the capacity utilization rate is 71.17% (a rise of 0.56 percentage points). The port inventory of butadiene is 44,700 tons (an increase of 1,400 tons), and the operating rate of Shandong local refinery atmospheric - vacuum distillation unit is 54.94% (a decrease of 1.28 percentage points). The monthly output of butadiene rubber is 13.01 million tons (a decrease of 0.75 million tons), the weekly capacity utilization rate is 76.76% (a rise of 0.5 percentage points), the weekly production profit is 334 yuan/ton. The social inventory of butadiene rubber is 34,500 tons (an increase of 500 tons), the manufacturer's inventory is 26,300 tons, and the trader's inventory is 7,180 tons (an increase of 1,490 tons) [2]. Downstream Situation - The monthly output of all - steel tires is 1.301 million pieces, and that of semi - steel tires is 5.831 million pieces (an increase of 0.663 million pieces). The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong are 3.27 days, and those of semi - steel tires are 47.05 days (an increase of 0.19 days). As of January 4, the capacity utilization rate of Chinese semi - steel tire sample enterprises is 66.53% (a decrease of 3.83 percentage points compared with the previous period and an increase of 11.05 percentage points year - on - year), and that of all - steel tire sample enterprises is 57.93% (a decrease of 3.76 percentage points compared with the previous period and an increase of 1.37 percentage points year - on - year) [2]. Industry News - Last week, the capacity utilization rate of domestic tire sample enterprises decreased because some enterprises had maintenance arrangements around the "New Year's Day" holiday and continued production control. In December, the output of butadiene rubber was 143,600 tons, a month - on - month increase of 10.38% and a year - on - year increase of 1.97%. The capacity utilization rate was 72.13%, a month - on - month increase of 4.65 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 2.68 percentage points. As of December 31, 2025, the domestic butadiene rubber inventory was 33,500 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.07% [2]. Key Points to Watch - There is no news today [2]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core Viewpoint of the Report The report anticipates that the futures price of stainless steel will undergo a moderately strong adjustment, and investors are advised to pay attention to the upper range of 14,000 - 14,200 yuan/ton. On the raw material side, the approaching rainy season in the Philippines and the decline in nickel ore grade have tightened the raw material inventory of domestic ferronickel plants. With a significant reduction in the RKAB quota in Indonesia next year, ferronickel production will face pressure to cut output. On the supply side, although the production profit of stainless steel plants has improved and the traditional peak demand season has passed, the actual decrease in production is expected to be limited, and supply pressure persists. On the demand side, downstream demand is gradually entering the off - season, and the decline in stainless steel exports is starting to show its impact. Market purchasing willingness is low, and overall inquiries and transactions are average. However, due to the limited supply of goods in the market, the national social inventory of stainless steel has maintained a seasonal slight decline. Technically, there has been an increase in trading volume and open interest along with a price increase, indicating a stronger bullish sentiment [2]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the stainless - steel futures main contract is 13,885 yuan/ton, up 490 yuan; the spread between the 02 - 03 contracts is - 140 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan. - The net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 16,506 lots, down 5,270 lots; the position of the main contract is 51,852 lots. - The warehouse receipt quantity is 47,267 tons, down 120 tons [2]. 现货市场 - The price of 304/2B cut - edge coils in Wuxi is 14,350 yuan/ton, up 550 yuan; the market price of scrap stainless - steel 304 in Wuxi is 9,300 yuan/ton, unchanged. - The basis of stainless steel is 75 yuan/ton, down 270 yuan [2]. Upstream Situation - The monthly electrolytic nickel output is 29,430 tons, up 1,120 tons; the total monthly ferronickel output is 22,100 metal tons, down 800 metal tons. - The monthly import volume of refined nickel and alloys is 12,840.49 tons, up 2,900.84 tons; the monthly import volume of ferronickel is 895,400 tons, down 9,700 tons. - The spot price of SMM1 nickel is 150,150 yuan/ton, up 6,700 yuan; the average price of ferronickel (7 - 10%) nationwide is 960 yuan/nickel point, up 30 yuan. - The monthly chromium - iron output in China is 757,800 tons, down 26,900 tons [2]. Industry Situation - The monthly output of 300 - series stainless steel is 1.7617 million tons, down 38,300 tons; the weekly total inventory of 300 - series stainless steel is 553,800 tons, down 8,700 tons. - The monthly export volume of stainless steel is 458,500 tons, down 29,500 tons [2]. Downstream Situation - The cumulative monthly value of new housing starts is 534.567 million square meters, up 43.9531 million square meters. - The monthly output of excavators is 33,600 units, up 2,700 units; the monthly output of large and medium - sized tractors is 22,600 units, up 700 units; the monthly output of small tractors is 9,000 units, unchanged [2]. Industry News - The People's Bank of China has clarified its key tasks for 2026, including increasing counter - cyclical and cross - cyclical adjustments and flexibly using various monetary policy tools such as reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts. - The U.S. Supreme Court has set January 9, 2026 (Friday) as the opinion release day, which means the court may rule on the legality of President Trump's global tariff policy. - Federal Reserve officials have sent different signals regarding the future interest - rate path. Richmond Fed President Barkin emphasized that the policy is in a "delicate balance" between dealing with inflation and rising unemployment, and interest rates have reached a neutral level. Fed Governor Milan said that the data supports further interest - rate cuts, with a potential reduction of over 100 basis points this year [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The market supply is sufficient, and the spot prices are stable. As the twelfth lunar month approaches, the market anticipates a peak demand season, leading to a rebound in jujube futures prices, but the sustainability of this rebound needs attention [2] 3. Summary by Category Futures Market - The closing price of the main jujube futures contract is 9,150 yuan/ton, with a week-on-week increase of 175 yuan/ton. The open interest of the main contract is 118,101 lots, with a week-on-week increase of 4,071 lots. The net long position of the top 20 futures holders is -20,431 lots, with a week-on-week decrease of 4,108 lots. The number of warehouse receipts is 2,263, and the total valid warehouse receipt forecasts is 745, with a week-on-week decrease of 107 [2] 现货市场 - The unified price of Kashgar jujubes is 6.5 yuan/kg, the wholesale price of first-grade grey jujubes in Hebei is 4.1 yuan/jin, the unified price of Alar jujubes is 5.65 yuan/kg, the wholesale price of first-grade grey jujubes in Henan is 4.15 yuan/jin, the unified price of Aksu jujubes is 5.15 yuan/kg, the price of special-grade jujubes in Henan is 9.5 yuan/kg, the price of special-grade jujubes in Hebei is 9.5 yuan/kg with a week-on-week increase of 0.04 yuan/kg, the price of special-grade jujubes in Guangdong is 10.4 yuan/kg, and the price of first-grade jujubes in Guangdong is 9 yuan/kg [2] Upstream Market - The annual jujube output is 6.069 million tons, with an increase of 3.187 million tons, and the planting area is 1.993 million hectares, with a decrease of 41,000 hectares [2] Industry Situation - The current national jujube inventory is 15,649 tons, with a week-on-week decrease of 249 tons (a 1.57% week-on-week decrease and a 38.34% year-on-year increase). The monthly jujube export volume is 3,537,566 kg, with an increase of 1,332,346 kg, and the cumulative monthly jujube export volume is 29,291,188 kg, with an increase of 3,537,566 kg [2] Downstream Situation - The cumulative quarterly sales volume of Hao Xiang Ni's jujubes is 36,480.43 tons, with a decrease of 2,981.06 tons. The cumulative year-on-year quarterly jujube production growth rate is 1.47%, with a decrease of 34.59 percentage points. The average daily number of jujube trucks arriving at Ruyifang Market is 1.27, and the monthly average wholesale price of jujubes is 5.4 yuan/kg [2] Industry News - According to Mysteel agricultural product research data, the physical inventory of 36 sample points this week is 15,649 tons, a 1.57% week-on-week decrease and a 38.34% year-on-year increase. The sample point inventory has decreased week-on-week. The purchase of grey jujubes in Xinjiang production areas is coming to an end, with limited remaining supply and few transactions in each production area. Raw material purchases in production areas are mainly based on quality, adhering to the principle of better quality commanding higher prices [2] Viewpoint Summary - In the sales areas, the Hebei Cuierzhuang Market receives both finished products and substandard products. Local processing plants mainly process and sell their own goods, and holders of goods are actively selling. Downstream merchants mainly purchase according to demand. The Ruyifang Market in Guangdong mainly receives goods from Xinjiang, and the transactions are average [2]

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Group 2: Core Viewpoints - Despite the macro - sentiment driving the futures prices to rise strongly, the overall supply - demand pattern is weak. With the recovery of Mongolian coal and mine supplies and the downstream profit pressure remaining, the short - term trend of coking coal is expected to be a wide - range oscillation [2]. - Although the coke futures price rebounded strongly intraday due to macro factors, the fundamentals have not improved significantly and lack the power for continuous growth. The short - term trend of coke is also expected to be a wide - range oscillation [2]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - JM main contract closing price: 1164.00 yuan/ton, up 68.00 yuan; J main contract closing price: 1773.00 yuan/ton, up 118.00 yuan [2]. - JM futures contract open interest: 624774.00 lots, up 19678.00 lots; J futures contract open interest: 40135.00 lots, up 2067.00 lots [2]. - Net position of the top 20 coking coal contracts: - 61315.00 lots, up 14325.00 lots; net position of the top 20 coke contracts: - 1655.00 lots, down 1108.00 lots [2]. - JM 9 - 5 contract spread: 82.50 yuan/ton, up 5.50 yuan; J 9 - 5 contract spread: 78.50 yuan/ton, up 1.00 yuan [2]. - Coking coal warehouse receipts: 2500.00, up 700.00; coke warehouse receipts: - 17.00, down 17.00 [2]. Spot Market - Dry Qimantage Mongolian No. 5 raw coal: 953.00 yuan/ton; Tangshan Grade 1 metallurgical coke: 2200.00 yuan/ton [2]. - Russian prime coking coal forward spot: 159.00 US dollars/wet ton; Rizhao Port quasi - Grade 1 metallurgical coke: 1470.00 yuan/ton [2]. - Jingtang Port Australian imported prime coking coal: 1480.00 yuan/ton, down 40.00 yuan; Tianjin Port Grade 1 metallurgical coke: 1570.00 yuan/ton [2]. - Jingtang Port Shanxi - produced prime coking coal: 1650.00 yuan/ton; Tianjin Port quasi - Grade 1 metallurgical coke: 1470.00 yuan/ton [2]. - Shanxi Jinzhong Lingshi medium - sulfur prime coking coal: 1626.00 yuan/ton; Inner Mongolia Wuhai - produced coking coal ex - factory price: 1330.00 yuan/ton [2]. - JM main contract basis: 462.00 yuan/ton, down 68.00 yuan; J main contract basis: - 108.00 yuan/ton, down 118.00 yuan [2]. Upstream Situation - Fine coal output of 314 independent coal washing plants: 26.10 million tons, up 0.30 million tons; fine coal inventory: 319.70 million tons, down 9.30 million tons [2]. - Capacity utilization rate of 314 independent coal washing plants: 0.35%, up 0.00%; raw coal output: 42679.30 million tons, up 2004.30 million tons [2]. - Coal and lignite imports: 4405.00 million tons, up 231.00 million tons; imported coking coal inventory at 16 ports: 539.48 million tons, up 21.58 million tons [2]. - Total coking coal inventory of independent coking enterprises: 1052.50 million tons, up 12.78 million tons; total coke inventory: 91.60 million tons, down 0.64 million tons [2]. - Coking coal inventory of 247 steel mills nationwide: 802.27 million tons, down 4.45 million tons; coke inventory: 643.99 million tons, up 1.79 million tons [2]. - Available days of coking coal for independent coking enterprises: 12.88 days, down 0.08 days; available days of coke for 247 steel mills: 12.10 days, up 0.09 days [2]. Industry Situation - Coking coal imports: 1073.15 million tons, up 13.82 million tons; coke and semi - coke exports: 72.00 million tons, down 1.00 million tons [2]. - Total coking coal supply: 5239.57 million tons, up 183.04 million tons; capacity utilization rate of independent coking enterprises: 71.72%, up 0.06% [2]. - Tonnage coke profit of independent coking plants: - 14.00 yuan/ton, up 4.00 yuan/ton; coke output: 4170.30 million tons, down 19.30 million tons [2]. Downstream Situation - Blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills nationwide: 78.94%, up 0.62%; blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate: 85.26%, up 0.32% [2]. - Crude steel output: 6987.10 million tons, down 212.60 million tons [2]. Industry News - The capacity utilization rate of 314 independent coal washing plants was 35.4%, a month - on - month increase of 0.3%; the daily output of fine coal was 26.1 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.3 million tons; the fine coal inventory was 319.7 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 9.4 million tons [2]. - In December, 26 construction steel production enterprises carried out production cuts and overhauls, 16 less than the previous month, and the impact on production increased month - on - month, with an estimated impact on construction steel output of 259.21 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 28.74% [2].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The upstream zinc ore imports are at a high level, but domestic zinc mines reduce production at the end of the year. The competition among domestic smelters for purchasing domestic ores intensifies, and both domestic and foreign processing fees decline significantly. The profits of domestic smelters shrink, and production is expected to continue to be restricted. However, the price of LME zinc has recently corrected, the SHFE - LME ratio has rebounded, and the export window may close again. [3] - On the demand side, the downstream market is gradually entering the off - season. The real estate sector is a drag, and the infrastructure and home appliance sectors are also weakening, while the automotive and other sectors have some bright spots due to policy support. The downstream market mainly purchases on - demand at low prices. Recently, zinc prices have fluctuated and adjusted, with flat trading volume and on - demand purchases. The spot premium is high and stable, and domestic inventories continue to decline. The increase in LME zinc inventories has slowed down, and the spot premium remains low. [3] - Technically, the position volume decreases while the price adjusts. The bullish sentiment is strong, but there is resistance at the upper edge of the upward channel. It is expected that SHFE zinc will adjust strongly, and attention should be paid to the 24,200 - 24,500 yuan/ton adjustment range. [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs a. Futures Market - The closing price of the SHFE zinc main contract is 24,330 yuan/ton, up 35 yuan/ton. The price difference between the 02 - 03 contracts of SHFE zinc is - 40 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton. [3] - The LME three - month zinc quotation is 3,251 US dollars/ton, up 56 US dollars/ton. The total position of SHFE zinc is 225,559 lots, down 4,684 lots. [3] - The net position of the top 20 in SHFE zinc is 5,722 lots, down 1,132 lots. The SHFE zinc warehouse receipts are 0 tons, unchanged. [3] - The SHFE inventory is 69,793 tons, down 3,170 tons (weekly). The LME inventory is 105,775 tons, down 75 tons. [3] b. Spot Market - The spot price of 0 zinc on Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network is 24,300 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan/ton. The spot price of 1 zinc in the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals Market is 24,190 yuan/ton, down 440 yuan/ton. [3] - The basis of the ZN main contract is - 30 yuan/ton, down 75 yuan/ton. The LME zinc cash - to - three - month spread is - 36.67 US dollars/ton, down 0.37 US dollars/ton. [3] - The arrival price of 50% zinc concentrate in Kunming is 21,140 yuan/ton, up 290 yuan/ton. The price of 85% - 86% crushed zinc in Shanghai is 16,550 yuan/ton, unchanged. [3] c. Upstream Situation - The WBMS zinc supply - demand balance is - 35,700 tons (monthly), down 14,700 tons. The ILZSG zinc supply - demand balance is 20,300 tons (monthly), down 27,600 tons. [3] - The global zinc mine production value of ILZSG is 1.0666 million tons (monthly), down 31,000 tons. The domestic refined zinc production is 665,000 tons (monthly), up 40,000 tons. [3] - The zinc ore import volume is 340,900 tons (monthly), down 164,500 tons. [3] d. Industry Situation - The refined zinc import volume is 18,836.76 tons (monthly), down 3,840.75 tons. The refined zinc export volume is 8,518.67 tons (monthly), up 6,040.84 tons. [3] - The social zinc inventory is 113,900 tons (weekly), up 5,000 tons. [3] e. Downstream Situation - The production of galvanized sheets is 2.34 million tons (monthly), up 20,000 tons. The sales volume of galvanized sheets is 2.42 million tons (monthly), up 140,000 tons. [3] - The newly started housing area is 534.567 million square meters (monthly), up 43.9531 million square meters. The completed housing area is 348.61 million square meters (monthly), up 37.3212 million square meters. [3] - The automobile production is 3.519 million vehicles (monthly), up 240,000 vehicles. The air - conditioner production is 14.204 million units (monthly), down 3.8908 million units. [3] f. Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options on zinc is 22.56% (daily), up 2.84 percentage points. The implied volatility of at - the - money put options on zinc is 22.56% (daily), up 2.84 percentage points. [3] - The 20 - day historical volatility of at - the - money zinc options is 19.26% (daily), up 1.97 percentage points. The 60 - day historical volatility of at - the - money zinc options is 12.39% (daily), up 0.58 percentage points. [3] g. Industry News - The People's Bank of China clarified its key work in 2026: increasing counter - cyclical and cross - cyclical adjustment efforts, and flexibly and efficiently using various monetary policy tools such as reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts. [3] - The US Supreme Court has set January 9 (Friday) as the opinion release day, which means the court may rule on the legality of the US President Trump's global tariff policy on that day. [3] - Fed officials have sent different signals on the future interest - rate path. Richmond Fed President Barkin emphasized that the policy is in a "delicate balance" between dealing with rising inflation and unemployment, and interest rates have reached a neutral level. Fed Governor Milan said that the data supports further interest - rate cuts, with a possible cut of more than 100 basis points this year. [3]