1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The lithium carbonate futures price declined with a weekly change of -6.85% and an amplitude of 14.62%. As of the end of the week, the closing price of the main contract was 121,580 yuan/ton [7]. - In 2026, the national subsidy program was officially released, with the first - batch of 62.5 billion yuan in funds allocated to support the replacement of consumer goods. The subsidy objects were adjusted [7]. - In terms of fundamentals, lithium ore prices rose due to high - level lithium carbonate prices. Lithium salt producers were willing to produce, resulting in a stable increase in domestic supply. Downstream procurement was mainly for rigid needs and long - term contracts, and industrial inventories continued to be depleted [7]. - Overall, the lithium carbonate market may be in a stage of stable supply growth and stable demand. It is recommended to conduct short - term long positions on dips with a light position, while controlling risks by paying attention to trading rhythms [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Weekly Highlights Summary - **Market Performance**: The main contract of lithium carbonate had a weekly decline of 6.85% and an amplitude of 14.62%, with a closing price of 121,580 yuan/ton [7]. - **Macro - environment**: The 2026 national subsidy program for consumer goods replacement was released, with 62.5 billion yuan in the first - batch of funds, and the subsidy objects were adjusted [7]. - **Fundamentals**: Lithium ore prices increased, supply grew steadily, downstream demand was mainly for rigid needs, and inventory continued to be depleted [7]. - **Investment Advice**: Light - position short - term long positions on dips, with attention to trading rhythms and risk control [7]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **Futures Price**: The futures price fluctuated weakly. As of December 31, 2025, the closing price of the main contract was 121,580 yuan/ton, a weekly decrease of 3,140 yuan/ton. The near - far month spread was - 1,580 yuan/ton, a weekly decrease of 340 yuan/ton [10]. - **Spot Price**: The spot price rose. As of December 31, 2025, the average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 118,500 yuan/ton, a weekly increase of 17,000 yuan/ton. The basis of the main contract was - 3,080 yuan/ton, a weekly increase of 20,140 yuan/ton [20]. 3.3 Upstream Market - **Lithium Spodumene**: The price of lithium spodumene concentrate (6% - 6.5%) was 1,440 US dollars/ton as of December 30, 2025, a weekly increase of 110 US dollars/ton. The US dollar - to - RMB exchange rate was 6.9901, a weekly decrease of 0.55% [24]. - **Lithium Mica**: The average price of lithium mica (Li₂O: 2.0% - 3%) was 5,106 yuan/ton as of December 31, 2025, a weekly increase of 333 yuan/ton. The average price of amblygonite was 14,025 yuan/ton, a weekly increase of 800 yuan/ton [29]. 3.4 Industry Situation - **Supply Side**: As of November 2025, the monthly import volume of lithium carbonate was 22,055.19 tons, a decrease of 7.64% from October but a year - on - year increase of 14.66%. The monthly export volume was 759.243 tons, an increase of 208.75% from October and a year - on - year increase of 249%. The monthly output was 53,980 tons, an increase of 4.75% from October and a year - on - year increase of 55.29%. The monthly开工率 was 43%, a decrease of 5% from the previous month and a decrease of 32% year - on - year [36]. - **Demand Side** - **Hexafluorophosphate Lithium**: The average price was 180,000 yuan/ton as of December 31, 2025, remaining unchanged from the previous week. As of November 2025, the monthly output of electrolyte was 231,050 tons, an increase of 5.55% from October and a year - on - year increase of 37.08% [39]. - **Lithium Iron Phosphate**: The average price was 45,100 yuan/ton, a weekly increase of 4,300 yuan/ton. As of November 2025, the monthly output was 268,890 tons, an increase of 0.75% from October and a year - on - year increase of 29.43%. The monthly开工率 was 63%, a decrease of 1% from the previous month and a decrease of 4% year - on - year [42]. - **Ternary Materials**: The prices of 811 - type, 622 - type, and 523 - type continued to strengthen. As of November 2025, the monthly output was 61,520 tons, a decrease of 0.81% from October but a year - on - year increase of 10.65%. The monthly开工率 was 51%, a decrease of 1% from the previous month but an increase of 3% year - on - year [47]. - **Lithium Manganate**: The average price was 45,000 yuan/ton, a weekly increase of 4,800 yuan/ton. As of November 2025, the monthly output was 10,210 tons, a decrease of 0.87% from October and a year - on - year decrease of 2.67% [52]. - **Lithium Cobaltate**: The average price was 374,200 yuan/ton, a weekly increase of 27,500 yuan/ton. As of November 2025, the monthly output was 16,050 tons, an increase of 1.65% from October and a year - on - year increase of 111.74% [55]. - **New - energy Vehicles**: As of November 2025, the penetration rate was 47.48%, a month - on - month increase of 0.74% and a year - on - year increase of 7.18%. The monthly output was 1.88 million vehicles, a month - on - month increase of 6.09%, and the monthly sales were 1.823 million vehicles, a month - on - month increase of 6.3%. The cumulative export volume was 2.315 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 102.89% [57][62]. 3.5 Options Market - Based on the option parity theory, the synthetic underlying asset had a premium of 0.04, presenting a positive arbitrage opportunity. Considering the performance of at - the - money option contracts and fundamental conditions, it is recommended to construct a short straddle to short volatility [67].

瑞达期货研究院 「2025.12.31」 聚氯乙烯市场周报 研究员：林静宜 期货从业资格号F03139610 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0021558 助理研究员：徐天泽 期货从业资格号F03133092 添加客服 关 注 我 们 获 取 更 多 资 讯 业务咨询 目录 1、周度要点小结 2、期现市场 3、产业情况 4、期权市场分析 「 周度要点小结」 3 价格：本周PVC主力期货在4740-4860区间波动。受前期盘面价格偏低叠加宏观利好驱动，本周PVC期货 冲高回落收涨。截至2025年12月31日收盘，主力合约V2605报收于4805元/吨，较上周收盘下跌0.56%。 基本面：供应端，上周韩华宁波40万吨装置维持检修状态，新增新浦化学25万吨检修装置，PVC产能利用 率环比-0.15%至77.23%。需求端，上周PVC下游开工率环比-0.87%至44.52%，其中管材开工率环比-1.4% 至36.2%，型材开工率环比-0.86%至30.57%。库存方面，上周PVC社会库存环比+0.43%至106.11万吨， 高位小幅积累。成本方面，上周电石价格下调，电石法全国平均成本环比下降至5018元/吨；乙烷、氯乙烷 ...

瑞达期货研究院 「 2025.12.31」 尿素市场周报 研究员：林静宜 期货从业资格号F03139610 期货投资咨询证书号Z0021558 关 注 我 们 获 取 更 多 资 讯 业务咨询 添加客服 目录 1、周度要点小结 2、期现市场 3、产业链分析 「 周度要点小结」 3 行情回顾：本周国内尿素市场偏强波动，近期虽然实际出口量未出现明显异常，但市场不断出现 对出口预期的猜想，市场情绪反复，一定程度刺激了下游接货。 行情展望：前期部分检修装置恢复，带动国内尿素产量增加，下周暂无企业装置计划停车，3-5家 停车企业装置可能恢复生产，考虑到短时的企业故障发生，预计产量增加的概率较大。近期农业 需求处于传统淡季，整体成交氛围不温不火，下游对高价货源存有抵触情绪，多采取随用随采策 略。工业领域维持刚需采购，复合肥企业开工率波动不大，关注天气及各地环保情况。由于近期 部分装置检修影响以及储备、刚需的适当推进，本周国内尿素企业库存继续下降，考虑到元旦期 间市场交投降温，部分装置复产，尿素企业库存或呈现小幅增加。 策略建议： UR2605合约短线预计在1730-1800区间波动。 「 期货市场情况」 尿素期货价格走势 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core View of the Report - This week, the price of the natural rubber market declined. The import rubber market was mainly for traders to swap positions, with strong restocking sentiment in January, while factories mainly adopted a wait - and - see approach. The downstream demand for domestic natural rubber showed no obvious improvement, and most of them were cautious and only made rigid purchases, resulting in weak actual order transactions. In the future, the Yunnan production area in China is in the non - tapping period. In the Hainan production area, some rubber forests in the western and southern regions are still in normal tapping, but the dry content of fresh latex is at a low level, and the amount of collectible rubber on the island is limited. Driven by the recovery of production profits, some processing plants have a sentiment of competing for rubber at higher prices. Recently, the total inventory at Qingdao Port has continued to accumulate, with both bonded warehouses and general trade warehouses showing inventory increases, and the total inventory increase rate has narrowed month - on - month. There is an expectation of a decrease in overseas ship arrivals, but the rubber price has risen more than expected, and downstream buyers are mainly in a wait - and - see state for restocking, with weak purchasing sentiment, so the inventory continues to accumulate. In terms of demand, domestic tire enterprises adjusted their production schedules flexibly last week, and some enterprises controlled production. The operating rate of semi - steel tire enterprises increased slightly month - on - month, while that of all - steel tire enterprises decreased. Entering the seasonal off - season, the overall shipment rhythm of enterprises was slow, the finished product inventory increased, and under the pressure of production and sales, some enterprises had production suspension or limitation phenomena [8]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Week - on - Week Summary - **Market Review**: The price of the natural rubber market declined this week. Import rubber traders mainly swapped positions, with strong restocking sentiment in January, while factories mainly waited and watched. The downstream demand for domestic natural rubber did not improve significantly, and most of them made rigid purchases cautiously, with weak actual order transactions [8]. - **Market Outlook**: Yunnan is in the non - tapping period, and in Hainan, the dry content of fresh latex is low, and the collectible rubber amount is limited. Some processing plants are competing for rubber at higher prices due to profit recovery. Qingdao Port's inventory continues to accumulate, but the increase rate has narrowed. There is an expectation of a decrease in overseas ship arrivals, but downstream purchasing sentiment is weak. Tire enterprises' operating rates are mixed, and the overall shipment is slow, with increasing finished product inventory [8]. - **Strategy Suggestion**: The ru2605 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 15400 - 16000 in the short term, and the nr2602 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 12400 - 13000 in the short term [8]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market 3.2.1 Futures Market - **Price Trend**: This week, the main contract price of Shanghai rubber futures fluctuated and closed down, with a weekly decline of 1.11%. The main contract price of No. 20 rubber also fluctuated and closed down, with a weekly decline of 1.02% [11]. - **Position Analysis**: Not elaborated in detail in the summary part, only the position changes of the top 20 in Shanghai rubber and No. 20 rubber are mentioned [13][15]. - **Inter - period Spread**: As of December 31, the spread between the May and September contracts of Shanghai rubber was 60, and the spread between the February and March contracts of No. 20 rubber was - 30 [21]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: As of December 31, the warehouse receipts of Shanghai rubber were 100,590 tons, an increase of 6,660 tons compared with last week; the warehouse receipts of No. 20 rubber were 57,959 tons, a decrease of 1 ton compared with last week [26]. 3.2.2 Spot Market - **Domestic Natural Rubber Spot Price**: As of December 30, the price of state - owned whole latex was 15,250 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan/ton compared with last week [28]. - **No. 20 Rubber Basis and Non - Standard Basis**: As of December 30, the basis of No. 20 rubber was 38 yuan/ton, a decrease of 51 yuan/ton compared with last week; the non - standard basis was - 970 yuan/ton, a decrease of 40 yuan/ton compared with last week [35]. 3.3 Industry Situation 3.3.1 Upstream Situation - **Thailand's Raw Material Prices and Processing Profits**: As of December 30, the price of field latex in Thailand's natural rubber raw material market was 54.2 (+0) Thai baht/kg; the price of cup lump was 51.1 (+0.1) Thai baht/kg. As of December 26, the theoretical processing profit of standard rubber was - 17.4 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 19.8 US dollars/ton compared with last week [38]. - **Domestic Production Area Raw Material Prices**: As of December 30, the price of fresh latex in Hainan was 13,900 yuan/ton, unchanged from last week; the Yunnan production area was in the non - tapping period [41]. 3.3.2 Import Situation - In November 2025, China's natural rubber (including technical classification, latex, smoked sheets, primary forms, mixed rubber, and composite rubber) imports were 643,600 tons, a month - on - month increase of 25.98% and a year - on - year increase of 14.69%. From January to November 2025, the cumulative import volume was 5.8716 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 16.98% [44]. 3.3.3 Qingdao Inventory - As of December 28, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 524,800 tons, a month - on - month increase of 9,600 tons, an increase of 1.87%. The bonded area inventory was 81,400 tons, an increase of 2.25%; the general trade inventory was 443,400 tons, an increase of 1.80%. The inbound rate of the sample bonded warehouses of Qingdao natural rubber decreased by 0.54 percentage points, and the outbound rate decreased by 0.08 percentage points; the inbound rate of general trade warehouses decreased by 1.08 percentage points, and the outbound rate increased by 0.38 percentage points [48]. 3.4 Downstream Situation - **Tire Operating Rate**: As of December 25, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 70.36%, a month - on - month increase of 0.35 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 8.37 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises was 61.69%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.92 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 1.72 percentage points [51]. - **Tire Exports**: In November 2025, China's tire exports were 688,300 tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.40 and a year - on - year increase of 1.82%. From January to November, China's cumulative tire exports were 7.7321 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 3.51%. Among them, the export volume of passenger car tires was 237,100 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.99% and a year - on - year decrease of 7.04%. From January to November, the cumulative export volume of passenger car tires was 2.9637 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 0.67%. The export volume of truck and bus tires was 418,500 tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.00% and a year - on - year increase of 6.65%. From January to November, the cumulative export volume of truck and bus tires was 4.445 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 5.64% [54]. - **Domestic Demand (Heavy - Duty Truck Sales)**: In November 2025, China's heavy - duty truck market sold about 100,000 vehicles (wholesale caliber, including exports and new energy), a month - on - month decrease of about 6% compared with October this year and a year - on - year increase of about 46% compared with 68,500 vehicles in the same period last year. From January to November this year, the cumulative sales of China's heavy - duty truck market exceeded 1 million vehicles, reaching 1.03 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of about 26% [57].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - BZ2603 is expected to show a volatile trend in the short term, with the daily K-line focusing on support around 5360 and resistance around 5580. The supply surplus situation is expected to continue, and the international oil price has limited upside potential [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract of pure benzene is 5487 yuan/ton, up 18 yuan; the settlement price is 5491 yuan/ton, down 41 yuan. The trading volume is 14907 lots, down 15784 lots; the open interest is 27128 lots, up 1212 lots [2]. Spot Market - The mainstream prices of pure benzene in the East China, South China, North China, and Northeast markets are 5487 yuan/ton, 5360 yuan/ton, 5300 yuan/ton, and 5206 yuan/ton respectively. The prices of hydrogenated benzene in Jiangsu and Shanxi regions are 5375 yuan/ton and 5040 yuan/ton respectively. The FOB intermediate price of pure benzene in South Korea is 664 dollars/ton, down 5 dollars/ton; the CFR intermediate price of pure benzene in China is 671.36 dollars/ton, down 3.73 dollars/ton [2]. Upstream Situation - The spot price of Brent DTD crude oil is 62.74 dollars/barrel, and the CFR intermediate price of naphtha in Japan is 534.63 dollars/ton, down 7.62 dollars/ton [2]. Industry Situation - The capacity utilization rate of pure benzene is 74.89%, down 0.05%; the weekly output is 43.63 tons, down 0.03 tons. The port inventory of pure benzene is 27.3 tons, up 1.3 tons. The production cost is 5109 yuan/ton, down 52.2 yuan/ton; the production profit is 201 yuan/ton, up 38 yuan/ton [2]. Downstream Situation - The开工率 of styrene is 70.7%, up 1.57%; the capacity utilization rates of caprolactam, phenol, aniline, and adipic acid are 74.04%, 78.15%, 62.98%, and 63.6% respectively, up 4.84%, 3.22%, 1.63%, and 4% respectively [2]. Industry News - From December 19th to 25th, the operating rate of petroleum benzene decreased by 0.05% to 74.89%, and the operating rate of hydrogenated benzene increased by 2.94% to 59.83%. From December 20th to 26th, the weighted operating rate of pure benzene downstream increased by 2.59% to 71.07%. As of December 29th, the inventory of pure benzene in East China ports was 30 tons, up 9.89% from last week. From December 20th to 26th, the profit of petroleum benzene increased by 38 yuan/ton to 201 yuan/ton [2]. Viewpoint Summary - The inventory of pure benzene continues to accumulate and remains at a high level. The profit of petroleum benzene has slightly recovered and is in a repair trend. A 210,000 - ton petroleum benzene plant in the Northeast and a hydrogenated benzene plant in the Northwest and Southwest will restart, and the domestic output of pure benzene is expected to increase slightly. The load of large - scale styrene plants is stable, and the operating rate is expected to remain stable; the caprolactam industry continues to cut production to maintain prices, and a small number of plants will resume production; the operating rates of phenol, aniline, and adipic acid plants are expected to increase. The supply - demand gap in the spot market narrows slowly, and the supply surplus is expected to continue. In terms of cost, the geopolitical situation between the US and Venezuela and between Russia and Ukraine shows no signs of deterioration in the short term, and the supply pressure of international crude oil remains, so the upside potential of oil prices is limited. BZ2603 is expected to fluctuate in the short term [2].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term supply - demand of domestic styrene is expected to remain in tight balance, and the visible inventory may maintain a downward trend. The non - integrated device losses decrease, and the integrated device profit is relatively considerable. In the short term, there are no news of large - scale device shutdown or restart, so the domestic styrene output and capacity utilization rate are expected to change little. The downstream EPS maintains low - level operation due to the off - season demand and high inventory, the PS device operation rate is expected to continue to increase, and the ABS pre - sale performance is good with the operation rate expected to increase slightly. The short - term EB2602 is expected to show a volatile trend, with the daily range expected to be around 6,650 - 6,850 [2][3] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the active styrene futures contract is 6,781 yuan/ton, up 44 yuan; the trading volume is 328,179, down 121,936; the long position of the top 20 holders is 336,085 hands, down 45 hands; the short position of the top 20 holders is 370,539 hands, up 1,635 hands; the net long position of the top 20 holders is - 34,454 hands, down 1,680 hands; the warehouse receipt quantity is 757 hands, down 600 hands; the closing price of the January contract is 6,700 yuan/ton [2] Spot Market - The spot price of styrene is 6,728 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan; the FOB South Korea intermediate price is 841.5 US dollars/ton, up 12.5 US dollars; the CFR China intermediate price is 851.5 US dollars/ton, up 12 US dollars; the mainstream price in Northeast China is 6,525 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan; the mainstream price in South China is 6,965 yuan/ton, up 70 yuan; the mainstream price in North China is 6,640 yuan/ton; the mainstream price in East China is 6,810 yuan/ton, up 35 yuan [2] Upstream Situation - The CFR Northeast Asia intermediate price of ethylene is 746 US dollars/ton; the CFR Southeast Asia intermediate price is 726 US dollars/ton; the CIF Northwest Europe intermediate price is 676 US dollars/ton, up 2.5 US dollars; the FD US Gulf price is 408 US dollars/ton. The spot price of pure benzene in the US Gulf is 280 cents/gallon, up 1 cent; the CIF Taiwan price is 661.17 US dollars/ton; the FOB Rotterdam price is 739 US dollars/ton; the South China market price is 5,300 yuan/ton; the East China market price is 5,360 yuan/ton, up 35 yuan; the North China market price is 5,170 yuan/ton [2] Industry Situation - The total styrene operating rate is 70.7%, up 1.57 percentage points; the national styrene inventory is 171,760 tons, up 800 tons; the total East China main port inventory is 13.88 tons, down 0.05 tons; the East China main port trade inventory is 8.33 tons, down 0.12 tons [2] Downstream Situation - The operating rate of EPS is 52.56%, up 0.75 percentage points; the operating rate of ABS is 69.4%, down 0.7 percentage points; the operating rate of PS is 58.6%, up 4.1 percentage points; the operating rate of UPR is 38%, up 2 percentage points; the operating rate of styrene - butadiene rubber is 79.38%, up 0.15 percentage points [2] Industry News - From December 19th to 25th, styrene output increased by 2.25% month - on - month to 354,600 tons, and capacity utilization increased by 1.57% month - on - month to 70.70%. The consumption of EPS, PS, and ABS increased by 2.79% month - on - month to 269,100 tons. As of December 25th, the styrene factory inventory increased by 0.47% month - on - month to 171,800 tons; as of December 29th, the East China port inventory decreased by 0.36% month - on - month to 138,800 tons, and the South China port inventory increased by 70% month - on - month to 18,700 tons. As of December 24th, the non - integrated profit increased to - 177 yuan/ton compared with last week; as of December 26th, the integrated profit was 627.63 yuan/ton [2]

| | | PVC产业日报 2025-12-30 研究员: 林静宜 期货从业资格号F03139610 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0021558 修装置陆续恢复，成本端支撑或受削弱。PVC弱现实与强预期博弈，短期预计震荡走势，V2605日度K线关 助理研究员: 徐天泽 期货从业资格号F03133092 注4700附近支撑与4860附近压力。 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为 瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 收盘价:聚氯乙烯(PVC)(日,元/吨) | 4810 | 33 成交量:聚氯乙烯(PVC ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The ru2605 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 15,400 - 16,000 in the short - term, and the nr2602 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 12,400 - 13,000 in the short - term. The overall inventory in Qingdao port continues to accumulate, with both bonded and general trade warehouses showing inventory accumulation, though the overall accumulation rate has narrowed. Overseas shipments are expected to decrease, but due to the unexpected increase in rubber prices, downstream buyers are mainly observing and replenishing, with weak purchasing sentiment and continued inventory accumulation. In terms of demand, last week, domestic tire enterprises adjusted production flexibly, with the semi - steel tire enterprise operating rate rising slightly month - on - month and the all - steel tire enterprise operating rate falling month - on - month, entering the seasonal off - season. The overall shipment rhythm of enterprises is slow, finished product inventory is rising, and under production and sales pressure, some enterprises have production suspension or limitation phenomena [2] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract of Shanghai rubber is 15,670 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan/ton; the 5 - 9 spread of Shanghai rubber is 45 yuan/ton; the closing price of the main contract of No. 20 rubber is 12,690 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan/ton; the 2 - 3 spread of No. 20 rubber is - 35 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan/ton. The spread between Shanghai rubber and No. 20 rubber is 2,980 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton. The position of the main contract of Shanghai rubber is 175,574 lots, down 3,817 lots; the position of the main contract of No. 20 rubber is 35,012 lots, down 3,230 lots. The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai rubber is - 46,555 lots, up 1,182 lots; the net position of the top 20 in No. 20 rubber is - 13,179 lots, up 891 lots. The warehouse receipts of Shanghai rubber in the exchange are 97,290 tons, up 700 tons; the warehouse receipts of No. 20 rubber in the exchange are 57,556 tons, down 505 tons [2] Spot Market - The price of state - owned whole latex in the Shanghai market is 15,300 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton; the price of Thai standard STR20 is 1,875 US dollars/ton, down 5 US dollars/ton; the price of Vietnamese 3L in the Shanghai market is 15,500 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton; the price of Malaysian standard SMR20 is 1,870 US dollars/ton, down 5 US dollars/ton. The price of Thai RMB mixed rubber is 14,700 yuan/ton, down 80 yuan/ton; the price of Malaysian RMB mixed rubber is 14,650 yuan/ton, down 80 yuan/ton. The price of Qilu Petrochemical's styrene - butadiene 1502 is 11,400 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan/ton; the price of Qilu Petrochemical's cis - butadiene BR9000 is 11,500 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan/ton. The basis of Shanghai rubber is - 370 yuan/ton, down 55 yuan/ton; the basis of non - standard products of the main contract of Shanghai rubber is - 965 yuan/ton, up 35 yuan/ton. The price of No. 20 rubber in the Qingdao market is 13,152 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan/ton; the basis of the main contract of No. 20 rubber is 462 yuan/ton, down 65 yuan/ton [2] Upstream Situation - The market reference price of smoked sheets of Thai raw rubber is 58.5 Thai baht/kg, up 0.01 Thai baht/kg; the market reference price of rubber sheets of Thai raw rubber is 55.49 Thai baht/kg, up 0.1 Thai baht/kg; the market reference price of glue of Thai raw rubber is 54.2 Thai baht/kg, unchanged; the market reference price of cup lump of Thai raw rubber is 52.95 Thai baht/kg, up 0.85 Thai baht/kg. The theoretical production profit of RSS3 is 138.6 US dollars/ton, up 13.6 US dollars/ton; the theoretical production profit of STR20 is - 17.4 US dollars/ton, down 19.8 US dollars/ton. The monthly import volume of technically specified natural rubber is 168,800 tons, up 42,700 tons; the monthly import volume of mixed rubber is 302,200 tons, up 45,800 tons [2] Downstream Situation - The operating rate of all - steel tires is 61.95%, down 1.18 percentage points; the operating rate of semi - steel tires is 72.05%, up 0.61 percentage points. The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong at the end are 43.78 days, up 1.87 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong at the end are 46.86 days, up 0.38 days. The monthly output of all - steel tires is 13.01 million pieces, up 0.59 million pieces; the monthly output of semi - steel tires is 58.31 million pieces, up 6.63 million pieces [2] Option Market - The historical 20 - day volatility of the underlying is 14.11%, down 0.48 percentage points; the historical 40 - day volatility of the underlying is 13.83%, up 0.16 percentage points. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options is 22.13%, up 0.19 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 22.13%, up 0.19 percentage points [2] Industry News - In November 2025, the sales volume of China's heavy - truck market was about 1 million vehicles (wholesale caliber, including exports and new energy), a month - on - month decrease of about 6% compared with October this year, and a year - on - year increase of about 46% compared with 685,000 vehicles in the same period last year. From January to November this year, the cumulative sales volume of China's heavy - truck market exceeded 1 million vehicles, reaching 1.03 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of about 26%. As of December 28, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao area was 524,800 tons, a month - on - month increase of 9,600 tons, an increase of 1.87%. The bonded area inventory was 81,400 tons, an increase of 2.25%; the general trade inventory was 443,400 tons, an increase of 1.80%. The inbound rate of Qingdao's natural rubber sample bonded warehouses decreased by 0.54 percentage points, and the outbound rate decreased by 0.08 percentage points; the inbound rate of general trade warehouses decreased by 1.08 percentage points, and the outbound rate increased by 0.38 percentage points. As of December 25, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 70.36%, a month - on - month increase of 0.35 percentage points, a year - on - year increase of 8.37 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of China's all - steel tire sample enterprises was 61.69%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.92 percentage points, a year - on - year increase of 1.72 percentage points [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - On Tuesday, the freight index (European line) futures prices fluctuated slightly, with the main contract EC2602 closing down 2.08% and the far - month contracts down between -1% and -1%. The latest SCFIS European line settlement freight rate index rebounded by 153.44 points from last week, a 9.7% increase. On December 26, SCFI continued to rise, with a 6.7% increase to 1656.32 points. The freight rate of the European line of SCFI increased by 10.2% to 1690 US dollars/TEU, driving up the futures prices. The manufacturing PMI in China in November showed a slight recovery, and the new export order index rose to 47.9, indicating a pre - Christmas recovery in terminal transportation demand. Maersk announced an increase in the PSS for European lines from January 6, 2026. The expectation of resuming navigation in the Red Sea has improved, and the euro - zone economy continues to pick up. Overall, the improvement in the trade - war situation and the arrival of the shipping peak season are conducive to the recovery of futures prices, while the short - term impact of the geopolitical situation on freight rates is weakened. The freight rate market is mainly affected by seasonal demand, and investors are advised to be cautious [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market Data - EC main contract closing price: 1795.100, down 38.2; EC secondary main contract closing price: down 4.40. The spread of EC2602 - EC2604 is 634.90, down 18.10; the spread of EC2602 - EC2606 is 425.10, down 23.80. The EC contract basis is - 52.46, up 181.24. The main contract position of EC is 27855 hands, down 2582 [1] Spot Market Data - SCFIS (European line) (weekly): 1742.64, up 153.44; SCFIS (US West line) (weekly): 1301.41, up 339.31. SCFI (composite index) (weekly): 1656.32, up 103.40. Container ship capacity: up 0.21 (in ten thousand TEUs). CCFI (composite index) (weekly): 1146.67, up 21.94; CCFI (European line) (weekly): 1519.06, up 45.16. Baltic Dry Bulk Index (daily): 1877.00, up 12.00; Panama - type freight index (daily): 1267.00, down 1.00. The average charter price of Panama - type ships is up 0.00; the average charter price of Cape - type ships is 22415.00, up 295.00 [1] Industry News - China will implement import provisional tax rates lower than the most - favored - nation tax rates on 935 commodities from January 1, 2026, and the total number of tariff items will increase to 8972. US President Trump met with Ukrainian President Zelensky, and both sides said the talks "made great progress". The minutes of the Bank of Japan's December policy meeting showed that many members believed that the real interest rate in Japan was still at a very low level, implying a continued interest - rate hike [1] Key Events to Watch - China's official manufacturing PMI for December on December 31 at 09:30; the number of initial jobless claims in the US for the week ending December 27 (in ten thousand) on December 31 at 21:30 [1]

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