1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The sharp correction in the external silver price has weakened the sentiment in the precious metals market, and the main platinum and palladium contracts on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange closed at the daily limit again today. The current pullback is a phased cooling of the previous "overheated" market, and the platinum and palladium markets may enter a high-level volatile consolidation phase in the short term. However, the accumulated squeeze pressure is difficult to resolve quickly, and the tight spot situation may still support the prices to have pulse-like rebounds. In the long term, platinum prices may be supported by the Fed's easing expectations, the continuation of the supply-demand structural deficit, and the expansion of medium- and long-term demand expectations in the hydrogen economy. The demand for palladium in the automotive catalyst field is expected to weaken due to over - concentration and the popularization of new energy vehicles, and its supply - demand pattern is expected to be loose. But the bullish sentiment driven by interest - rate cut expectations may support the price, and the current low price of palladium may make it a cost - advantageous choice again. Also, the recent parabolic rise in platinum and palladium prices may increase the risk of a high - level decline, and short - term technical correction pressure should be guarded against [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main platinum contract was 589.85 yuan/gram, a decrease of 88.10 yuan; the closing price of the main palladium contract was 447.45 yuan/gram, a decrease of 66.85 yuan. The trading volume of the main platinum contract was 10387.00 lots, a decrease of 277.00 lots; the trading volume of the main palladium contract was 3179.00 lots, an increase of 90.00 lots [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The spot price of platinum (Pt9995) on the Shanghai Gold Exchange was 565.12 yuan/gram, a decrease of 72.03 yuan; the average spot price of palladium in the Yangtze River was 408.00 yuan/gram, a decrease of 80.00 yuan. The basis of the main platinum contract was - 24.73 yuan/gram, an increase of 16.07 yuan; the basis of the main palladium contract was - 39.45 yuan/gram, a decrease of 13.15 yuan [2] 3.3 Supply - Demand Situation - The total annual supply of platinum in 2025 is expected to be 220.40 tons, a decrease of 0.80 tons; the total annual supply of palladium in 2025 is expected to be 293.00 tons, a decrease of 5.00 tons. The total annual demand for platinum in 2025 is expected to be 261.60 tons, an increase of 25.60 tons; the total annual demand for palladium in 2025 is expected to be 287.00 tons, a decrease of 27.00 tons [2] 3.4 Macro Data - The U.S. dollar index was 98.03, an increase of 0.12; the 10 - year U.S. Treasury real yield was 1.91%, unchanged; the VIX volatility index was 13.60, an increase of 0.13 [2] 3.5 Industry News - U.S. President Trump met with Ukrainian President Zelensky, with both saying the talks "made great progress" but without major announcements. The Bank of Japan's December policy meeting minutes showed that many members thought Japan's real interest rates were still extremely low, hinting at future interest - rate hikes. According to the CME "FedWatch", the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in January next year is 16.1%, and the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged is 83.9%. By March next year, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point rate cut is 45.4%, the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged is 47.7%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point rate cut is 6.9% [2] 3.6 Key Points to Watch - The U.S. FHFA house price index year - on - year (%) on December 30, 2025, 22:00, and the U.S. Markit manufacturing PMI on January 1, 2026, 21:45 [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The mid - term bullish logic for precious metals remains intact, but recent market volatility has increased, and there is a need to be cautious about correction risks. This week, opportunities for gold - silver ratio repair can be monitored. In the short term, the oscillatory correction trend may continue, but strong dip - buying demand provides some bottom support. The upper resistance for London gold is at $4500 per ounce, and the lower support is at $4300 per ounce. For London silver, the upper resistance is at $80 per ounce, and the lower support is at $70 per ounce. [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - **Prices**: The closing price of the Shanghai Gold main contract was 984.840 yuan/gram, down 22.3 yuan; the closing price of the Shanghai Silver main contract was 18107 yuan/kg, down 94.00 yuan. - **Positions**: The position of the Shanghai Gold main contract was 144,462.00 lots, down 21,562.00 lots; the position of the Shanghai Silver main contract was 4,164.00 lots, down 1,506.00 lots. - **Volumes**: The trading volume of the Shanghai Gold main contract was 391,541.00 lots, up 46,319.00 lots; the trading volume of the Shanghai Silver main contract was 2,059,507.00 lots, up 616,702.00 lots. - **Warehouse Receipts**: The warehouse receipt quantity of Shanghai Gold was 97,704 kg, unchanged; the warehouse receipt quantity of Shanghai Silver was 755,754 kg, down 40,985 kg. [1] 3.2 Spot Market - The spot price of gold on the Shanghai Gold Exchange was 981.91 yuan/gram, down 22.09 yuan; the spot price of Huatong No.1 silver was 17,668.00 yuan, down 1,432.00 yuan. The basis of the Shanghai Gold main contract was - 2.93 yuan/gram, up 0.25 yuan; the basis of the Shanghai Silver main contract was - 439.00 yuan/gram, down 1,338.00 yuan. [1] 3.3 Supply and Demand Situation - **ETF Holdings**: The SPDR Gold ETF holdings were 1,071.99 tons, up 0.86 tons; the SLV Silver ETF holdings were 16,305.96 tons, down 84.60 tons. - **CFTC Non - commercial Net Positions**: The non - commercial net position of gold in CFTC was 233,978.00 contracts, up 10,092.00 contracts; the non - commercial net position of silver in CFTC was 36,352.00 contracts, down 8,357.00 contracts. - **Supply and Demand Quantities**: The total quarterly supply of gold was 1,313.07 tons, up 86.24 tons; the total annual supply of silver was 32,056.00 tons, up 482.00 tons. The total quarterly demand for gold was 1,257.90 tons, up 174.15 tons; the total annual demand for silver was 35,716.00 tons, down 491.00 tons. [1] 3.4 Macroeconomic Data - The US dollar index was 98.01, down 0.03; the 10 - year US Treasury real yield was 1.90, down 0.01. The VIX volatility index was 14.20, up 0.60; the CBOE gold volatility index was 0.04, up 0.04. The ratio of S&P 500 to gold price was 1.59; the gold - silver ratio was 58.11, down 5.69. [1] 3.5 Industry News - US President Trump met with Ukrainian President Zelensky. Both sides said the talks were fruitful but no major announcements were made. Trump said they discussed many topics and were close to an agreement, while Zelensky emphasized that the territorial issue was difficult and should be decided by the Ukrainian people. - The minutes of the Bank of Japan's December policy meeting showed that many members thought Japan's real interest rate was still very low, hinting at continued interest rate hikes in the future. One member suggested adjusting policies at intervals of "several months". - According to CME's "FedWatch", the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in January next year is 16.1%, and the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged is 83.9%. By March next year, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point rate cut is 45.4%, the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged is 47.7%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point rate cut is 6.9%. [1] 3.6 Key Points of Attention - On December 30, 2025, at 22:00, the year - on - year US FHFA house price index; on January 1, 2026, at 21:45, the US Markit manufacturing PMI. [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The probability of an increase in urea production is relatively high in the short - term, considering potential device recoveries and possible short - term enterprise malfunctions. The current agricultural season is in a period of low demand, but there may be a slight increase in local agricultural reserves in Jiangsu and Anhui. Commercial reserve demand may slow down due to price constraints. The short - term enterprise device operating rate may fluctuate slightly, and attention should be paid to weather and local environmental protection conditions. Recently, driven by market sentiment, urea factory orders have been progressing steadily, and factory shipments have improved. Domestic urea enterprise inventories have continued to decline. With the end of environmental protection warnings, urea production is expected to rebound, and inventories may increase. The UR2605 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 1730 - 1760 yuan/ton in the short term [2]. Summary by Directory Futures Market - The closing price of the Zhengzhou urea main contract is 1743 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 8 yuan/ton; the 5 - 9 spread is 38 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 4 yuan/ton. The main contract's open interest is 204,038 lots, with a week - on - week increase of 9,235 lots; the net position of the top 20 is - 28,939 lots, with a week - on - week decrease of 3,868 lots. The exchange warehouse receipts are 12,381 sheets, with a week - on - week increase of 1,631 sheets [2]. Spot Market - In the domestic spot market, the prices in Hebei, Shandong are 1730 yuan/ton and 1710 yuan/ton respectively, with no change; the prices in Henan, Jiangsu, and Anhui are 1700 yuan/ton, 1710 yuan/ton, and 1710 yuan/ton respectively, with a week - on - week decrease of 10 yuan/ton. The basis of the Zhengzhou urea main contract is - 33 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 8 yuan/ton. The FOB prices in the Baltic and China's main ports are 350 US dollars/ton and 390 US dollars/ton respectively, with no change [2]. Industry Situation - Port inventory is 17.7 million tons, with a week - on - week increase of 3.9 million tons; enterprise inventory is 106.89 million tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 11.08 million tons. The urea enterprise operating rate is 78.77%, with a week - on - week decrease of 1.92%; the daily urea output is 190,500 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 4,600 tons. The urea export volume is 60 million tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 60 million tons; the monthly urea output is 6,000,330 tons, with an increase of 129,060 tons [2]. Downstream Situation - The compound fertilizer operating rate is 37.75%, with a week - on - week decrease of 1.62%; the melamine operating rate is 58.07%, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.48%. The weekly profit of compound fertilizer in China is 143 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 3 yuan/ton; the weekly profit of melamine with externally purchased urea is - 108 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 72 yuan/ton. The monthly output of compound fertilizer is 438.25 million tons, with an increase of 75.38 million tons; the weekly output of melamine is 30,200 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 300 tons [2]. Industry News - As of December 24, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 106.89 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 11.08 million tons, or 9.39%. As of December 25, the sample inventory of Chinese urea ports was 17.7 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 3.9 million tons, or 28.26%. As of December 25, the output of Chinese urea production enterprises was 1.3334 billion tons, a week - on - week decrease of 32.5 million tons, or 2.38%, and the capacity utilization rate was 78.77%, a week - on - week decrease of 1.92% [2]. Suggestion - Pay attention to the enterprise inventory, port inventory, daily output, and operating rate data from Longzhong on Thursday [2].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Recently, there are few shutdowns of domestic butadiene rubber plants, and the supply remains at a high level. Last week, the price center increased slightly, and market transactions were mainly concentrated on low - price purchases by arbitrageurs. Traders cautiously raised prices, but terminal procurement remained weak. The inventory level of production enterprises increased, and the inventory of trading enterprises decreased partially. - The increase in mainstream supply prices provides bottom - support for the butadiene rubber market price. However, due to sufficient spot resources and the production and sales pressure near the end of the year, the inventory of production enterprises is expected to remain high, and the inventory of trading enterprises is expected to decline slightly. - In terms of demand, domestic tire enterprises adjusted production flexibly last week. The operating rate of semi - steel tire enterprises increased slightly month - on - month, while that of all - steel tire enterprises decreased. Entering the seasonal off - season, the overall shipment pace of enterprises is slow, the finished product inventory is rising. Under production and sales pressure, some enterprises have production suspension or limitation phenomena. The short - term price of the br2602 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 11150 - 12000 [2]. 3. Summary of Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract of synthetic rubber was 11,565 yuan/ton, a decrease of 35 yuan/ton. The position of the main contract was 49,563, a decrease of 9,640. The synthetic rubber 2 - 3 spread was - 25 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan/ton. The total number of warehouse receipts for butadiene rubber was 4,560 tons, with no change [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The mainstream price of BR9000 butadiene rubber from Qilu Petrochemical and Daqing Petrochemical in Shandong was 11,450 yuan/ton, an increase of 150 yuan/ton; the mainstream price of BR9000 butadiene rubber from Daqing Petrochemical in Shanghai was 11,500 yuan/ton, an increase of 150 yuan/ton; the mainstream price of BR9000 butadiene rubber from Maoming Petrochemical in Guangdong was 11,600 yuan/ton, an increase of 50 yuan/ton. The basis of synthetic rubber was - 115 yuan/ton, a decrease of 15 yuan/ton [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - Brent crude oil was $61.94 per barrel, an increase of $1.3; WTI crude oil was $58.08 per barrel, an increase of $1.34. The Northeast Asian ethylene price was $745 per ton, with no change; the price of naphtha CFR Japan was $534.63 per ton, a decrease of $7.62; the intermediate price of butadiene CFR China was $965 per ton, with no change. The mainstream price of butadiene in the Shandong market was 8,600 yuan/ton, an increase of 200 yuan/ton. - The weekly production capacity of butadiene was 159,300 tons, a decrease of 2,800 tons; the weekly capacity utilization rate of butadiene was 70.61%, an increase of 0.06 percentage points. The port inventory of butadiene was 43,300 tons, an increase of 7,300 tons; the operating rate of Shandong local refineries' atmospheric and vacuum distillation units was 56.22%, an increase of 0.32 percentage points. - The monthly output of butadiene rubber was 130,100 tons, a decrease of 7,500 tons; the weekly capacity utilization rate of butadiene rubber was 76.76%, an increase of 0.5 percentage points. The weekly production profit of butadiene rubber was 334 yuan/ton, an increase of 45 yuan/ton. The weekly social inventory of butadiene rubber was 34,500 tons, an increase of 500 tons; the weekly inventory of manufacturers was 28,850 tons, an increase of 1,250 tons; the weekly inventory of traders was 5,690 tons, a decrease of 720 tons [2]. 3.4 Downstream Situation - The monthly output of all - steel tires was 1.301 million pieces, an increase of 59,000 pieces; the monthly output of semi - steel tires was 5.831 million pieces, an increase of 663,000 pieces. The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong were 43.78 days, an increase of 1.87 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong were 46.86 days, an increase of 0.38 days. - As of December 25, the capacity utilization rate of Chinese semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 70.36%, a month - on - month increase of 0.35 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 8.37 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of Chinese all - steel tire sample enterprises was 61.69%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.92 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 1.72 percentage points [2]. 3.5 Industry News - In November, the domestic butadiene rubber output was 130,100 tons, a decrease of 7,500 tons from the previous month, a month - on - month decrease of 5.44% and a year - on - year increase of 8.43%. In November, the capacity utilization rate of butadiene rubber was 68.13%, a decrease of 3.27 percentage points from the previous month and an increase of 0.53 percentage points from the same period last year. As of December 24, the domestic butadiene rubber inventory was 34,500 tons, an increase of 500 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month increase of 1.56% [2].

股指期货全景日报 2025/12/30 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | IF主力合约（2603） IC主力合约（2603） | 4622.2 7381.0 | +16.4↑ IF次主力合约（2601） +43.6↑ IC次主力合约（2601） | 4643.6 7457.2 | +13.0↑ +33.0↑ | | | IH主力合约（2603） | 3035.4 | -1.0↓ IH次主力合约（2601） | 3035.4 | +0.8↑ | | | IM主力合约（2603） | 7459.2 | +18.0↑ IM次主力合约（2601） | 7593.8 | +15.8↑ | | 期货盘面 | IF-IH当月合约价差 | 1608.2 | +13.4↑ IC-IF当月合约价差 | 2813.6 | +22.8↑ | | | IM-IC当月合约价差 | 136.6 | -14.0↓ IC-IH当月合约价差 | 4421.8 | +36.2↑ | | | IM-IF当月合约价差 | ...

生猪产业日报 2025-12-30 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货盘面 | 期货主力合约收盘价:生猪(日,元/吨) | 11790 | 75 主力合约持仓量:生猪(日,手) | 172346 | 1230 | | | 仓单数量:生猪(日,手) | 1013 | 0 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:生猪(日,手) | -49140 | 1977 | | 现货价格 | 生猪价 河南 驻马店(日,元/吨) | 12500 | 0 生猪价 吉林 四平(日,元/吨) | 12000 | 0 | | | 生猪价 广东 云浮(日,元/吨) | 13000 | 400 生猪主力基差(日,元/吨) | 710 | -75 | | 上游情况 | 生猪存栏(月,万头) | 43680 | 1233 生猪存栏:能繁母猪(月,万头) | 3990 | -45 | | 产业情况 | CPI:当月同比(月,%) | 0.7 | 0.5 现货价:豆粕:张家港(日,元/吨) | 3120 | -10 | | | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The fundamentals of Shanghai copper may be in a stage of slightly converging supply and resilient demand, with a slight accumulation of social inventory, and copper prices are strongly influenced by macro - factors. In the options market, the sentiment is bullish, and the implied volatility has slightly increased. Technically, the 60 - minute MACD shows that the double - lines are above the 0 - axis and the green bars are converging. It is recommended to conduct short - term long trades at low positions with a light position, paying attention to controlling the rhythm and trading risks [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai copper is 98,090 yuan/ton, down 770 yuan; the price of LME 3 - month copper is 12,437 dollars/ton, up 215 dollars. The spread between the main contract and the next - month contract is - 150 yuan/ton, down 70 yuan. The position of the main contract of Shanghai copper is 219,725 hands, down 15,782 hands. The net position of the top 20 futures holders of Shanghai copper is - 37,503 hands, up 3,144 hands. LME copper inventory is 154,575 tons, down 2,450 tons. The inventory of cathode copper in the Shanghai Futures Exchange is 111,703 tons, up 15,898 tons. The warrant of cathode copper in the Shanghai Futures Exchange is 71,738 tons, down 2,856 tons [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The price of SMM 1 copper spot is 97,620 yuan/ton, down 3,120 yuan; the price of 1 copper spot in the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metal Market is 97,715 yuan/ton, down 3,510 yuan. The CIF (bill of lading) price of Shanghai electrolytic copper is 52 dollars/ton, unchanged. The average premium of Yangshan copper is 49 dollars/ton, down 3.5 dollars. The basis of the CU main contract is - 470 yuan/ton, down 2,350 yuan. The LME copper premium (0 - 3) is 31.35 dollars/ton, up 11.66 dollars [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The import volume of copper ore and concentrates is 252.62 million tons, up 7.47 million tons. The TC of domestic copper smelters is - 44.9 dollars/thousand tons, down 1.25 dollars. The price of copper concentrates in Jiangxi is 91,490 yuan/metal ton, up 3,260 yuan; in Yunnan, it is 92,190 yuan/metal ton, up 3,260 yuan. The processing fee for blister copper in the south is 1,500 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan; in the north, it is 1,100 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan. The output of refined copper is 123.6 million tons, up 3.2 million tons. The import volume of unwrought copper and copper products is 430,000 tons, down 10,000 tons [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The social inventory of copper is 41.82 million tons, up 0.43 million tons. The price of 1 bright copper wire in Shanghai is 69,870 yuan/ton, up 2,650 yuan. The ex - factory price of 98% sulfuric acid of Jiangxi Copper is 1,030 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of 2 copper (94 - 96%) in Shanghai is 83,350 yuan/ton, up 2,700 yuan [2] 3.5 Downstream and Application - The output of copper products is 222.6 million tons, up 22.2 million tons. The cumulative investment in power grid infrastructure construction is 56.04 billion yuan, up 7.7966 billion yuan. The cumulative investment in real estate development is 7,859.09 billion yuan, up 502.82 billion yuan. The monthly output of integrated circuits is 4,392 million pieces, up 215 million pieces [2] 3.6 Option Situation - The 20 - day historical volatility of Shanghai copper is 20.32%, up 0.27 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility is 16.32%, down 0.64 percentage points. The implied volatility of the current - month at - the - money option is 39.69%, up 0.0953 percentage points. The call - put ratio of at - the - money options is 1.28, down 0.0664 [2] 3.7 Industry News - The State Administration for Market Regulation has deployed key tasks for 2026, emphasizing continuous deepening of fair competition governance, strengthening anti - monopoly and anti - unfair competition law enforcement, and enhancing platform economy regulation. The National Energy Administration has called for promoting the implementation of the "three - year doubling" action plan for electric vehicle charging facilities and accelerating the construction of a high - quality charging infrastructure system. The secretary - general of the Passenger Car Association believes that the auto market in 2026 will have a positive start in January but face some pressure in February. US President Trump has commented on the Fed chairman and is considering legal action against him [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For alumina, the fundamentals may be in a stage of slightly converging supply and stable demand. Suggest light - position oscillatory trading, controlling rhythm and trading risks [2] - For electrolytic aluminum, the fundamentals may be in a stage of slightly increasing supply and off - season demand. The aluminum price maintains high - level oscillation. Suggest light - position short - term long trading when the price is low, controlling rhythm and trading risks [2] - For cast aluminum alloy, the fundamentals may be in a stage of converging supply and weakening demand. Suggest light - position oscillatory trading, controlling rhythm and trading risks [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai aluminum main contract is 22,565.00 yuan/ton, down 5.00 yuan; the closing price of the alumina futures main contract is 2,751.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; the LME electrolytic aluminum three - month quotation is 2,950.50 US dollars/ton, down 6.00 US dollars [2] - The main - second - consecutive contract spread of Shanghai aluminum is - 105.00 yuan/ton, up 5.00 yuan; that of alumina is - 125.00 yuan/ton, down 3.00 yuan [2] - The main contract positions of Shanghai aluminum are 267,707.00 hands, down 21,548.00 hands; those of alumina are 404,205.00 hands, up 7,530.00 hands [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network A00 aluminum price is 22,180.00 yuan/ton, down 310.00 yuan; the alumina spot price in Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals is 2,610.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] - The average price (tax - included) of ADC12 aluminum alloy ingots nationwide is 22,400.00 yuan/ton, up 400.00 yuan; the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals Market AOO aluminum price is 22,550.00 yuan/ton, down 380.00 yuan [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The alumina output is 813.80 million tons, up 27.30 million tons; the demand for alumina (electrolytic aluminum part) is 705.96 million tons, down 24.27 million tons [2] - The import quantity of aluminum scrap and waste in China is 162,756.17 tons, up 4,396.16 tons; the export quantity is 71.53 tons, up 39.07 tons [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The total production capacity of electrolytic aluminum is 4,524.20 million tons, up 1.00 million tons; the production capacity utilization rate of alumina is 86.51%, down 0.45% [2] - The import quantity of primary aluminum is 146,109.72 tons, down 101,652.54 tons; the export quantity is 53,047.69 tons, up 28,474.13 tons [2] 3.5 Downstream and Application - The output of aluminum products is 593.10 million tons, up 23.70 million tons; the export quantity of unforged aluminum and aluminum products is 57.00 million tons, up 7.00 million tons [2] - The production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots is 70.00 million tons, up 9.17 million tons; the export quantity of aluminum alloy is 3.06 million tons, down 0.03 million tons [2] 3.6 Option Situation - The historical volatility of 20 - day Shanghai aluminum is 12.69%, up 0.01%; the historical volatility of 40 - day Shanghai aluminum is 11.57%, down 0.15% [2] - The implied volatility of the Shanghai aluminum main contract at - the - money is 22.36%, up 0.0391%; the call - put ratio of Shanghai aluminum options is 1.77, down 0.1616 [2] 3.7 Industry News - The State Administration for Market Regulation deploys key tasks for 2026, emphasizing continuous deepening of fair competition governance and strengthening of anti - monopoly and anti - unfair competition law enforcement [2] - The National Energy Administration holds a symposium on promoting the construction of a high - quality charging infrastructure system, aiming to achieve the "three - year doubling" action plan for electric vehicle charging facilities [2] - The secretary - general of the Passenger Car Association, Cui Dongshu, says that the growth of the 2026 car market is complex, with a positive growth in January expected and greater pressure in February [2] - US President Trump says he will announce the candidate for the Fed Chairman at an appropriate time, criticizes the Fed Chairman Powell, and is considering suing him [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The lithium carbonate market is in a stage where supply is steadily increasing while demand is slightly slowing. The raw material prices are rising due to the strong lithium carbonate prices, and smelters are still willing to purchase and stockpile. The supply of lithium salts in China is growing steadily, but downstream procurement is becoming more cautious due to high prices. [2] - The option market sentiment is bearish, with the put - call ratio of total positions at 160.08%, a decrease of 44.7769% compared to the previous period, and the implied volatility slightly decreasing. [2] - Technically, on the 60 - minute MACD, the double lines are above the 0 - axis and the green bars are expanding. The suggestion is to conduct light - position oscillating trading and control risks by paying attention to trading rhythms. [2] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract is 121,580 yuan/ton, up 2,760 yuan. The net position of the top 20 is - 138,637 lots, down 10,332 lots. The trading volume of the main contract is 511,309 lots, down 1,036 lots. The spread between near - and far - month contracts is - 2,000 yuan/ton, down 1,300 yuan. The Guangzhou Futures Exchange's warehouse receipts are 19,491 lots/ton, up 1,300 lots. [2] Spot Market - The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate is 118,000 yuan/ton, unchanged. The average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 115,000 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis of the Li₂CO₃ main contract is - 3,580 yuan/ton, down 2,760 yuan. [2] Upstream Situation - The average price of spodumene concentrate (6% CIF China) is 1,440 US dollars/ton, up 10 US dollars. The average price of amblygonite is 14,025 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of lepidolite (2 - 2.5%) is 5,106 yuan/ton, down 300 yuan. [2] Industry Situation - The monthly production of lithium carbonate is 53,980 tons, up 2,450 tons. The monthly import volume is 22,055.19 tons, down 1,825.51 tons. The monthly export volume is 759.24 tons, up 513.33 tons. The monthly operating rate of lithium carbonate enterprises is 47%, unchanged. [2] - The monthly production of power batteries is 176,300 MWh, up 5,700 MWh. The price of lithium manganate is 38,000 yuan/ton, up 1,000 yuan. The price of lithium hexafluorophosphate is 180,000 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of lithium cobalt oxide is 372,200 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of ternary materials (811 type) in China is 171,500 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of ternary materials (622 power type) in China is 153,500 yuan/ton, unchanged. [2] Downstream and Application Situation - The price of ternary materials (523 single - crystal type) in China is 166,000 yuan/ton, unchanged. The monthly operating rate of ternary cathode materials is 51%, down 1%. The price of lithium iron phosphate is 45,100 yuan/ton, unchanged. The monthly operating rate of lithium iron phosphate cathodes is 63%, down 1%. [2] - The monthly production of new energy vehicles (according to the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers) is 1,880,000 vehicles, up 108,000 vehicles. The monthly sales volume is 1,823,000 vehicles, up 108,000 vehicles. The cumulative sales penetration rate of new energy vehicles is 47.48%, up 0.74%. The cumulative sales volume is 14,780,000 vehicles, up 3,518,000 vehicles. [2] - The monthly export volume of new energy vehicles is 300,000 vehicles, up 44,000 vehicles. The cumulative export volume is 2,315,000 vehicles, up 1,174,000 vehicles. The 20 - day average volatility of the underlying is 61.94%, down 0.08%. The 40 - day average volatility is 58.37%, down 1.64%. [2] Option Situation - The total subscription position is 129,272 contracts, up 19,940 contracts. The total put position is 206,942 contracts, down 17,035 contracts. The put - call ratio of total positions is 160.08%, down 44.7769%. The at - the - money IV implied volatility is 0.51%, down 0.0045%. [2] Industry News - Jinyuan Co., Ltd. stated on the interactive platform that its Baqiancuo salt lake lithium extraction project is in the trial - production stage, and the company focuses on "early production and high - volume production". The company will comprehensively evaluate and plan its Argentine Carlo project based on various factors. [2] - The State Administration for Market Regulation deployed key tasks for 2026, emphasizing continuous deepening of fair competition governance, strengthening the fight against administrative monopolies, and intensifying anti - monopoly and anti - unfair competition law enforcement. [2] - The National Energy Administration held a symposium on promoting the construction of a high - quality charging infrastructure system, emphasizing the implementation of the "three - year doubling" action plan for the service capacity of electric vehicle charging facilities, accelerating the construction of a high - quality charging infrastructure system, promoting the planning and construction of high - power charging facilities, and advancing the large - scale application pilot of vehicle - grid interaction. [2] - Cui Dongshu, the secretary - general of the Passenger Car Association, wrote that the growth of the auto market in 2026 is complex. The most important factor at the beginning of the year is the late Spring Festival. Coupled with the early implementation of national subsidies, the market is expected to have a positive start in January, but there will be more pressure in February. [2]

| | | 集运指数（欧线）期货日报 2025/12/29 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 数据指标 最新 | 最新 | 环比 | | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | EC主力收盘价 15.8↑ EC次主力收盘价 | 1822.900 | | 1169.9 | +16.50↑ | | 期货盘面 | EC2602-EC2604价差 -16.70↓ EC2602-EC2606价差 | 653.00 | | 448.90 | -59.40↓ | | | EC合约基差 | -80.26 | +155.04↑ | | | | 期货持仓头寸（手） EC主力持仓量 | | 30437 | -1412↓ | | | | | SCFIS（欧线）（周） 153.44↑ SCFIS（美西线）（周） SCFI（综合指数）（周） 103.40↑ 集装箱船运力（万标准箱） | 1742.64 1656.32 | | 1,301.41 1,227.97 | 339.31↑ 0.00↑ | | 现货价格 | CCFI（综合指数）（周） 21.94↑ CCFI（欧线）（周） | 114 ...