集港，叠加农业需求推进，尿素去库幅度或增大。UR2509合约短线建议在1670-1760区间交易。 尿素产业日报 2025-06-24 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 郑州尿素主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 1698 | -13 郑州尿素9-1价差(日,元/吨) | 31 | 6 | | | 郑州尿素主力合约持仓量(日,手) | 247071 | 13911 郑州尿素前20名净持仓 | -12491 | -7863 | | | 郑州尿素交易所仓单(日,张) | 0 | 0 | | | | 现货市场 | 河北(日,元/吨) | 1800 | -10 河南(日,元/吨) | 1760 | -60 | | | 江苏(日,元/吨) | 1770 | -60 山东(日,元/吨) | 1750 | 0 | | | 安徽(日,元/吨) | 1810 | -20 郑州尿素主力合约基差(日,元/吨) | 52 | 13 | | | FOB波罗的海(日,美元/吨) | 375 | 0 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Gold's medium - to long - term bullish logic remains intact. The global trend of de - dollarization drives continuous central bank gold - buying demand. The US twin deficits and economic downward pressure may prompt the Fed to turn to a loose monetary policy. If the tariff policy persists and increases inflation resilience, gold's anti - inflation appeal will strengthen. If the expectation of interest rate cuts becomes clearer, silver's industrial attributes and relative valuation advantages may boost the silver price, and the gold - silver ratio is expected to decline further. The report suggests paying attention to the range of 767 - 780 yuan/gram for the Shanghai Gold 2508 contract and 8630 - 8800 yuan/kilogram for the Shanghai Silver 2508 contract [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai Gold main contract is 771.86 yuan/gram, down 9.44 yuan; the closing price of the Shanghai Silver main contract is 8739 yuan/kilogram, down 31 yuan. The main contract positions of Shanghai Gold are 147343 lots, down 5119 lots; those of Shanghai Silver are 341851 lots, down 6481 lots. The net positions of the top 20 in the Shanghai Gold main contract are 139204 lots, down 2488 lots; those of Shanghai Silver are 113611 lots, up 5838 lots. The warehouse receipt quantity of gold is 0 kilograms, down 18168 kilograms; that of silver is 0 kilograms, down 1247103 kilograms [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network's gold spot price is 776 yuan/gram, down 3.8 yuan; the silver spot price is 8708 yuan/kilogram, up 1 yuan. The basis of the Shanghai Gold main contract is 4.14 yuan/gram, up 5.64 yuan; the basis of the Shanghai Silver main contract is - 31 yuan/kilogram, up 32 yuan [2] 3.3 Supply and Demand Situation - Gold ETF holdings are 957.4 tons, up 7.16 tons; silver ETF holdings are 14950.99 tons, up 200.71 tons. The non - commercial net positions of gold in CFTC are 200648 contracts, up 13167 contracts; those of silver are 67174 contracts, up 524 contracts. The total quarterly supply of gold is 1313.01 tons, up 54.84 tons; the total annual supply of silver is 987.8 million troy ounces, down 21.4 million troy ounces. The total quarterly demand for gold is 1313.01 tons, up 54.83 tons; the global annual demand for silver is 1195 million ounces, down 47.4 million ounces [2] 3.4 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of gold is 15.76%, down 0.05%; the 40 - day historical volatility is 24.67%, down 0.12%. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for gold is 24.01%, down 2.21%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 24%, down 2.24% [2] 3.5 Industry News - Iran announced a missile strike on the US military's Al - Udeid Air Base in Qatar. Trump announced an Iran - Israel cease - fire, but Iran denied it. The Fed's independence is interfered by Trump, and geopolitical risks intensify, putting pressure on Germany and Italy to repatriate over $245 billion in gold reserves. Fed Vice - Chair Bowman may support a rate cut as early as July. Fed's Goolsbee said that if the impact of trade policies disappears, the Fed should continue to cut rates. According to CME's "FedWatch", the probability of the Fed keeping rates unchanged in July is 84.5%, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point cut is 15.5%. The probability of keeping rates unchanged in September is 30%, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point cut is 60%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point cut is 10% [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - International factors such as the approaching monsoon season improving the outlook of major Asian sugar - producing countries with expected production recovery and increased Brazilian sugar supply are suppressing raw sugar prices. In China, the sugar import volume in May 2025 reached 350,000 tons, a significant increase of 220,000 tons from April and a surge of 1954.9% year - on - year. The opening of the import window has increased import pressure and suppressed sugar prices. However, as the summer consumption peak approaches, the food and beverage industry has stocking demand, and seasonal consumption of cold drinks may pick up, providing some support for prices, resulting in a slowdown in the decline and a short - term adjustment trend. Later, attention should be paid to sugar arrivals and summer consumption [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the sugar futures main contract was 5,710 yuan/ton, down 11 yuan; the main contract's open interest was 349,073 lots, down 4,726 lots; the number of sugar warehouse receipts was 24,762, down 2,572; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders was - 63,693 lots; the total of valid warehouse receipt forecasts for sugar was 0; the estimated import processing price of Brazilian sugar within the quota was 4,450 yuan/ton, up 57 yuan; and that of Thai sugar was 4,460 yuan/ton, up 45 yuan [2] 现货市场 - The estimated price of imported Brazilian sugar outside the quota (with a 50% tariff) was 5,653 yuan/ton, up 75 yuan; that of imported Thai sugar was 5,665 yuan/ton, up 59 yuan; the spot price of white sugar in Kunming was 5,860 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan; in Nanning it was 6,040 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; and in Liuzhou it was 6,090 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan [2] Upstream Situation - The national sugar - crop sown area was 1,480 thousand hectares, an increase of 60 thousand hectares; the sown area of sugar - cane in Guangxi was 835.09 thousand hectares, a decrease of 12.86 thousand hectares [2] Industry Situation - The cumulative national sugar production was 11.1621 million tons, an increase of 54,900 tons; the cumulative national sugar sales volume was 8.1138 million tons, an increase of 869,200 tons; the national industrial sugar inventory was 3.0483 million tons, a decrease of 814,300 tons; the national sugar sales ratio was 72.69%, an increase of 7.47 percentage points; the monthly sugar import volume was 350,000 tons, an increase of 220,000 tons; the total monthly sugar exports from Brazil were 2.2566 million tons, an increase of 704,000 tons; the price difference between imported Brazilian sugar and the current Liuzhou sugar price within the quota was 1,470 yuan/ton, down 66 yuan; that of imported Thai sugar was 1,460 yuan/ton, down 54 yuan; outside the quota (with a 50% tariff), the price difference for Brazilian sugar was 267 yuan/ton, down 84 yuan; and for Thai sugar it was 255 yuan/ton, down 68 yuan [2] Downstream Situation - The cumulative year - on - year growth rate of refined sugar production was 16.7%, up 2.6 percentage points; the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of soft drink production was 3%, down 0.9 percentage points [2] Options Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for sugar was 11.36%, up 2.54 percentage points; that of at - the - money put options was 11.36%, up 2.59 percentage points; the 20 - day historical volatility of sugar was 5.57%, unchanged; the 60 - day historical volatility was 8.52%, down 0.05 percentage points [2] Industry News - Brazil's foreign trade secretariat data showed that Brazil exported 2,103,033.83 tons of sugar in the first three weeks of June, with an average daily export volume of 150,216.7 tons, a 6% decrease compared to the average daily export volume of the whole of June last year [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View - The main contract of Shanghai copper rebounded slightly, with a decrease in open interest, a spot discount, and a weakening basis. The fundamentals of Shanghai copper may be in a situation of weak supply and demand. The option market sentiment is bullish, and the implied volatility has slightly increased. It is recommended to conduct short - term long trades at low prices with a light position, while paying attention to controlling the rhythm and trading risks [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai copper was 78,640 yuan/ton, up 350 yuan; the price of LME 3 - month copper was 9,708.50 dollars/ton, up 41 dollars. The main contract's inter - month spread was 140 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan; the open interest of the main contract of Shanghai copper was 149,902 lots, down 7,527 lots. The positions of the top 20 futures holders of Shanghai copper were 3,115 lots, up 4,480 lots. The LME copper inventory was 95,875 tons, down 3,325 tons; the SHFE inventory of cathode copper was 100,814 tons, down 1,129 tons; the SHFE warehouse receipts of cathode copper were 22,425 tons, down 2,856 tons [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The price of SMM 1 copper spot was 78,415 yuan/ton, up 90 yuan; the price of Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market 1 copper spot was 78,485 yuan/ton, up 95 yuan. The CIF (bill of lading) price of Shanghai electrolytic copper was 61 dollars/ton, unchanged; the average premium of Yangshan copper was 37.5 dollars/ton, unchanged. The basis of the CU main contract was - 225 yuan/ton, down 260 yuan; the LME copper premium (0 - 3) was 274.99 dollars/ton, up 141.63 dollars [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The import volume of copper ore and concentrates was 239.52 million tons, down 50.98 million tons. The rough smelting fee (TC) of domestic copper smelters was - 44.78 dollars/kiloton, down 0.03 dollars. The price of copper concentrates in Jiangxi was 68,780 yuan/metal ton, up 100 yuan; the price of copper concentrates in Yunnan was 69,480 yuan/metal ton, up 100 yuan. The processing fee of blister copper in the South was 800 yuan/ton, unchanged; the processing fee of blister copper in the North was 750 yuan/ton, unchanged. The output of refined copper was 125.40 million tons, unchanged. The import volume of unwrought copper and copper products was 430,000 tons, down 10,000 tons [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The social inventory of copper was 41.82 million tons, up 0.43 million tons. The price of 1 bright copper wire scrap in Shanghai was 55,090 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan; the price of 2 copper scrap (94 - 96%) in Shanghai was 67,000 yuan/ton, unchanged. The ex - factory price of sulfuric acid (98%) of Jiangxi Copper was 570 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. 3.5 Downstream and Application - The output of copper products was 209.60 million tons, up 1.50 million tons. The cumulative completed investment in power grid infrastructure was 2,040 billion yuan, up 631.84 billion yuan. The cumulative completed investment in real estate development was 36,233.84 billion yuan, up 8,504.27 billion yuan. The monthly output of integrated circuits was 4,235,000 million pieces, up 68,000 million pieces [2]. 3.6 Option Situation - The 20 - day historical volatility of Shanghai copper was 8.47%, down 0.13%; the 40 - day historical volatility of Shanghai copper was 8.91%, down 0.27%. The implied volatility of the current - month at - the - money IV was 11.79%, up 0.0019%. The put - call ratio of at - the - money options was 1.05, up 0.0053 [2]. 3.7 Industry News - As of the end of May, the country's cumulative installed power generation capacity was 36.1 billion kilowatts, a year - on - year increase of 18.8%. Among them, the installed capacity of solar power generation was 10.8 billion kilowatts, an increase of 56.9%; the installed capacity of wind power was 5.7 billion kilowatts, an increase of 23.1%. The deputy minister of the Ministry of Finance met with the delegation of the American Chamber of Commerce in China. Many places have broadened the proposed investment fields of special bonds. The initial value of the US S&P Global Manufacturing PMI in June remained stable at 52, the highest since February. The Fed's vice - chair said that a rate cut might be supported as early as July [2].

苯乙烯产业日报 2025-06-24 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 环比 | 最新 | | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | -466 期货成交量(活跃:成交量):苯乙烯(EB)(日, 期货收盘价(活跃合约):苯乙烯(日,元/吨) 前20名持仓:买单量:苯乙烯(日,手) 12185 7月合约收盘价:苯乙烯(日,元/吨) | 7226 373162 | | | 611529 7339 | 287981 -353 | | | | | 手) | | | | | | 期货持仓量(活跃:成交量):苯乙烯(EB)(日, | | | | | | | | 22328 前20名持仓:净买单量:苯乙烯(日,手) | 268569 | | | -13982 | 10036 | | | 手) 前20名持仓:卖单量:苯乙烯(日,手) 2149 仓单数量:苯乙烯:总计(日,手) 现货价:苯乙烯(日,元/吨) 18 苯乙烯:FOB韩国:中间价(日,美元/吨) | 387144 8244 | | | 5800 935 | 1000 -4 ...

锡价回调，部分下游企业开始采购补库，现货升水维持700元/吨，国内库存小幅下降，海外去库明显。技 研究员: 王福辉 期货从业资格号F03123381 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0019878 术面，持仓低位多空谨慎，面临MA60阻力，关注257000支撑。操作上，建议暂时观望，参考25.7-26.4。 免责声明 沪锡产业日报 2025-06-23 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 期货主力合约收盘价:沪锡(日,元/吨) | 261880 | 1320 LME3个月锡(日,美元/吨) | 32690 | 590 | | | 8月-9月合约收盘价:沪锡(日,元/吨) | 130 | -40 主力合约持仓量:沪锡(日,手) | 17549 | -985 | | | 期货前20名净持仓:沪锡(日,手) | 1459 | -1007 LME锡:总库存(日,吨) | 2175 | -25 | | | 上期所库存:锡(周,吨) | 6965 | -142 LME锡:注销仓单(日,吨) ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core View The V2509 contract of PVC showed a volatile trend. The supply side saw a decline in PVC capacity utilization rate, and the demand side also had a decrease in downstream开工率. The inventory showed a de - stocking trend but at a slower pace with relatively low inventory pressure. The domestic PVC industry is in a peak maintenance period, and the capacity utilization rate is expected to continue to decline. The domestic downstream is in the off - season. The Indian BIS certification is postponed to mid - December, and anti - dumping policies may be implemented in early July. In terms of cost, some calcium carbide maintenance devices have resumed, but the supply in the northwest region is restricted by production cuts, and the raw material price of the ethylene method is supported by strong oil prices. Considering the digestion of geopolitical factors in the Middle East, the short - term V2509 is expected to fluctuate, with the daily K - line focusing on the support around 4850 and the pressure around 4950 [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of PVC futures was 4896 yuan/ton, down 7 yuan; the trading volume was 992,189 lots, down 63,888 lots; the open interest was 969,157 lots, up 16,127 lots. The long positions of the top 20 futures were 753,218 lots, down 1,866 lots; the short positions were 783,171 lots, up 21,589 lots; the net long positions were - 29,953 lots, down 23,455 lots [3]. 3.2 Spot Market - In the East China region, the price of ethylene - based PVC was 5025 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of calcium carbide - based PVC was 4824.62 yuan/ton, up 28.46 yuan. In the South China region, the price of ethylene - based PVC was 4982.5 yuan/ton, up 22.5 yuan; the price of calcium carbide - based PVC was 4882.5 yuan/ton, up 26.25 yuan. The CIF price of PVC in China was 710 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the CIF price in Southeast Asia was 670 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the FOB price in Northwest Europe was 740 US dollars/ton, unchanged. The basis of PVC was - 86 yuan/ton, down 23 yuan [3]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The mainstream average price of calcium carbide in Central China was 2700 yuan/ton, unchanged; in North China, it was 2698.33 yuan/ton, unchanged; in the Northwest, it was 2480 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan. The mainstream price of liquid chlorine in Inner Mongolia was 50.5 yuan/ton, unchanged. The mid - price of VCM CFR Far East was 524 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the mid - price of VCM CFR Southeast Asia was 564 US dollars/ton, unchanged. The mid - price of EDC CFR Far East was 176 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the mid - price of EDC CFR Southeast Asia was 178 US dollars/ton, unchanged [3]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The overall PVC开工率 was 78.62%, down 0.63 percentage points; the calcium carbide - based PVC开工率 was 80.43%, down 1.34 percentage points; the ethylene - based PVC开工率 was 73.81%, up 1.22 percentage points. The total social inventory of PVC was 35.51 million tons, up 0.03 million tons. The social inventory in the East China region was 31.23 million tons, up 0.01 million tons; in the South China region, it was 4.28 million tons, up 0.02 million tons. The national real estate prosperity index was 93.72, down 0.14; the cumulative value of new housing construction area was 231.8361 million square meters, up 53.4777 million square meters [3]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The cumulative value of real estate construction area was 6.2501954 billion square meters, up 47.0449 million square meters; the cumulative value of real estate development investment was 1915.481 billion yuan, up 428.168 billion yuan [3]. 3.6 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of PVC was 15.01%, up 0.95 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility was 16.93%, up 0.38 percentage points. The implied volatility of at - the - money put options was 21.51%, up 0.92 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money call options was 21.51%, up 0.93 percentage points [3]. 3.7 Industry News - On June 23, the spot exchange price of PVCSG5 in Changzhou decreased by 10 - 30 yuan/ton compared with last Friday, with the price ranging from 4780 to 4860 yuan/ton. From June 6 to 12, China's PVC capacity utilization rate was 79.25%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.47%. As of June 19, the new sample statistics of PVC social inventory decreased by 0.74% month - on - month to 569,300 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 37.97% [3].

不锈钢产业日报 2025-06-23 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 期货主力合约收盘价:不锈钢(日,元/吨) | 12390 | -115 07-08月合约价差:不锈钢(日,元/吨) | -45 | 0 | | | 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:不锈钢(日,手) | -9942 | -1435 主力合约持仓量:不锈钢(日,手) | 192515 | 12040 | | | 仓单数量:不锈钢(日,吨) | 113903 | -186 | | | | 现货市场 | 304/2B卷:切边:无锡(日,元/吨) | 13450 | 0 市场价:废不锈钢304:无锡(日,元/吨) | 9300 | 0 | | | SS主力合约基差(日,元/吨) | 465 | 20 | | | | 上游情况 | 电解镍产量(月,吨) | 29430 | 1120 镍铁产量合计(月,万金属吨) | 2.39 | 0.22 | | | 进口数量:精炼镍及合金(月,吨) | 17687.58 | -1 ...

触。成本方面，美国对伊朗核设施发动袭击，伊朗议会赞成封锁霍尔木兹海峡，地缘冲突升温或对国际油 研究员: 林静宜 期货从业资格号F03139610 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0021558 助理研究员: 徐天泽 期货从业资格号F03133092 价存在高位支撑。中东地缘冲突因素已阶段性消化，市场对局势是否进一步恶化存疑。短期L2509预计震荡 塑料产业日报 2025-06-23 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 期货主力合约收盘价:聚乙烯(日,元/吨) | 7444 | 29 1月合约收盘价:聚乙烯(日,元/吨) | 7369 | 22 | | | 5月合约收盘价:聚乙烯(日,元/吨) | 7354 | 20 9月合约收盘价:聚乙烯(日,元/吨) | 7444 | 29 | | | 成交量(日,手) | 421810 | 7585 持仓量(日,手) | 477335 | -7189 | | | 1月-5月合约价差 | 15 | 2 期货前20名持仓:买单量:聚乙烯(日,手) ...

| | 烧碱产业日报 | | | 2025-06-23 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 项目类别 | 数据指标 环比 | 最新 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | 期货市场 | 主力收盘价:烧碱(日,元/吨) 16 期货持仓量:烧碱(日,手) | 2272 | | 293284 | -4497 | | | 期货前20名净持仓:烧碱(日,手) 15116 期货成交量:烧碱(日,手) | -23262 | | 508464 | -145252 | | | 合约收盘价:烧碱:1月(日,元/吨) 6 合约收盘价:烧碱:5月(日,元/吨) | 2266 | | 2329 | 2 | | | 期货前20名净持仓:烧碱(日,手) 15116 | -23262 | | | | | 现货市场 | 烧碱(32%离子膜碱):山东地区(日,元/吨) -30 烧碱(32%离子膜碱):江苏地区(日,元/吨) | 780 | | 930 | -20 | | | 山东地区32%烧碱折百价(日,元/吨) -93 基差:烧碱(日,元/吨) | 2438 | | 166 | -109 ...