- The report introduces a dividend prediction model to estimate the impact of dividends on stock index futures contracts. The model involves four key steps: estimating the net profit of index constituent stocks, calculating the pre-tax total dividend for each stock, assessing the impact of dividends on the index, and predicting the theoretical impact of dividends on each contract based on historical patterns and assumptions[23][26][33] - The formula for estimating the weight of a stock in the index is provided as follows: $$\mathrm{w_{it}={\frac{w_{i0}\times\mathrm{\scriptsize{\left(\mathrm{\scriptsize{\normalsize1+R\mathrm{\scriptsize{\normalsize1}}}\right)}}}{\sum_{1}^{n}w_{i0}\times\mathrm{\scriptsize{\left(\mathrm{\scriptsize{\normalsize1+R\mathrm{\scriptsize{\normalsize1}}}\right)}}}}}}$$ where \(w_{i0}\) is the accurate weight of stock \(i\) at time \(t_0\), and \(R\) represents the price change rate of the stock during the period[28] - The theoretical pricing model for stock index futures is based on the no-arbitrage principle. For discrete dividend distributions, the formula is: $$\mathbf{D}=\sum_{\mathrm{i=1}}^{\mathrm{m}}\mathbf{D}_{\mathrm{i}}\,/(1+\phi)$$ where \(D_i\) represents the present value of dividends distributed at different time points, and \(\phi\) is the risk-free rate for the period between dividend distributions. The futures price is then calculated as: $$F_t = (S_t - D)(1 + r)$$ For continuous dividend distributions, the formula is: $$F_t = S_t \cdot e^{(r-d)(T-t)}$$ where \(r\) is the annualized risk-free rate, \(d\) is the annualized dividend yield, and \(T-t\) is the time to maturity[36][37] - The report evaluates the impact of dividends on various stock index futures contracts (e.g., CSI 300, CSI 500, CSI 1000). For example, the predicted dividend points for April contracts are as follows: - CSI 300: 0.85 - CSI 500: 0.24 - CSI 1000: 0.20 The annualized hedging costs (excluding dividends) for these contracts are also calculated, with values such as 24.28% for CSI 300 and 23.62% for CSI 500[11][13][14] - The report highlights the remaining impact of dividends on April contracts for different indices: - CSI 300: 0.02% - CSI 500: 0.00% - CSI 1000: 0.00%[15]

Group 1: Market Stability Measures - The central bank supports the Central Huijin Investment Ltd. to increase holdings in stock market index funds and will provide sufficient refinancing support if necessary[4] - The National Financial Regulatory Administration has raised the upper limit for insurance funds' equity asset allocation ratio[4] - The State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission will support central enterprises and their listed companies to increase share buybacks[4] Group 2: Strategic Role of Central Huijin - Central Huijin is positioned as a "stabilizing force" in the capital market, akin to a sovereign wealth fund, marking a new phase in strategic reserve and stabilization mechanism construction[4] - Central Huijin has been actively increasing stock holdings during market volatility, similar to the U.S. 2008 Troubled Asset Relief Program which was aimed at stabilizing the market[4] - The central bank's refinancing support indicates an indirect involvement in maintaining market stability, as outlined in the draft of the Financial Stability Law[4] Group 3: Market Outlook and Risks - The statement from Central Huijin emphasizes confidence in the capital market's development, driven by a positive outlook on China's economic future[4] - The ongoing U.S.-China tensions may lead to increased market volatility, impacting investor sentiment[4] - Risks associated with tariff changes and global supply chain restructuring could affect corporate earnings and overall market growth[4]

新代碳管深绑电池创新链，龙头引领产品 升级 核心观点 老产品价格企稳叠加新产品放量，业绩增长动能强劲。当前传统碳纳米管导电浆料 价格企稳，2024 年公司导电剂浆料销量同比高增，推动营收重回增长轨道。同时， 公司单壁产品以及复配单壁的第四代产品已推向市场进入放量阶段，随着公司新增 产能逐步投放，出货结构将向新代高性能产品倾斜。目前高性能稳定的单壁碳纳米 管处于供不应求状态，单吨粉体价格高达千万元级别，有望为公司带来丰厚利润增 量。 盈利预测与投资建议 ⚫ 由于产品结构变化，我们下调 2024 年收入与利润，预测公司 2024-2026 年归母净利 润分别为 2.53、4.95、6.76 亿元（原 24-25 年预测值为 3.22、4.53 亿元），参考可 比公司 25 年估值水平，给予公司 25 年 32 倍市盈率，对应目标价为 45.76 元，维持 买入评级。 风险提示 | | 1 周 | 1 月 | 3 月 | 12 月 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 绝对表现% | -13.24 | -21.47 | 5.12 | 46.69 | | 相对表现% | -8.15 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [6] Core Views - The revenue growth rate shows marginal improvement, with resilience in net interest margin [10] - The company has adjusted its assumptions, slightly increasing net interest margin and decreasing non-interest income growth forecasts, predicting a net profit growth of 6.8%/7.7%/8.7% for 2025/2026/2027 [3][10] - The target price is set at 27.75 CNY per share, corresponding to a price-to-book (PB) ratio of 0.79 for 2025, maintaining a 20% discount to the historical average PB of 0.99 [3][10] Financial Performance Summary - Revenue (in million CNY) is projected to grow from 61,585 in 2023 to 87,285 in 2027, with year-on-year growth rates of 6.4%, 8.2%, 7.9%, 9.6%, and 10.7% respectively [5] - Net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to increase from 25,535 in 2023 to 33,901 in 2027, with growth rates of 10.7%, 6.2%, 6.8%, 7.7%, and 8.7% [5] - The company’s total assets and loan growth rates are projected to be 15.3% and 17.8% respectively as of the end of 2024 [10] - The non-performing loan (NPL) ratio remains stable at 0.76%, with a dividend payout ratio increasing to 21.9% in 2024 [10]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 31.59 CNY based on a 27x P/E ratio for 2025 [2][5]. Core Insights - The company's revenue for 2024 is projected to decline by 2.7% to 2.45 billion CNY, with a recovery expected in 2025, where revenue is forecasted to increase by 17.9% to 2.89 billion CNY [4][10]. - The decline in T300 revenue is attributed to reduced demand in the equipment sector, while T800 revenue is expected to grow significantly due to successful product validation and subsequent mass supply [10]. - The overall gross margin is expected to decrease to 45.5% in 2024, but is projected to recover slightly in the following years [4][10]. Financial Summary - **Revenue Forecast**: - 2023: 2,518 million CNY - 2024: 2,450 million CNY - 2025: 2,888 million CNY - 2026: 3,366 million CNY - 2027: 3,950 million CNY [4][10] - **Net Profit Forecast**: - 2023: 873 million CNY - 2024: 741 million CNY - 2025: 970 million CNY - 2026: 1,124 million CNY - 2027: 1,324 million CNY [4][10] - **Earnings Per Share (EPS)**: - 2023: 1.05 CNY - 2024: 0.89 CNY - 2025: 1.17 CNY - 2026: 1.35 CNY - 2027: 1.59 CNY [4][10] - **Profitability Ratios**: - Gross Margin: 48.7% (2023), 45.5% (2024), 48.3% (2025) - Net Margin: 34.7% (2023), 30.3% (2024), 33.6% (2025) - Return on Equity (ROE): 16.9% (2023), 13.5% (2024), 15.9% (2025) [4][10].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" (maintained) with a target price of 207.90 CNY [1] Core Views - The company is expected to see revenue growth driven by the launch of new games, including "Wanjian Changsheng" and "Zhangjian Chuanqi" [6][8] - The forecasted net profit for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 is 1.069 billion CNY, 1.158 billion CNY, and 1.327 billion CNY respectively, reflecting a recovery in game revenue [6] - The company has a strong gross margin of 88% and a net margin of 25.2% projected for 2025 [6][8] Financial Summary - The company's revenue for 2023 was 4.185 billion CNY, with a year-on-year decline of 19% [7] - The expected revenue for 2025 is 4.236 billion CNY, representing a growth of 14.6% compared to 2024 [7] - The net profit attributable to the parent company for 2024 is projected to be 945 million CNY, with a year-on-year decrease of 16% [7] - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is estimated at 14.85 CNY, with a projected increase to 18.42 CNY by 2027 [7][11] - The company maintains a healthy financial position with a projected debt-to-asset ratio of 19.5% for 2025 [11]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 45.76 CNY, based on a projected 32 times price-to-earnings ratio for 2025 [3][6]. Core Insights - The company's revenue is expected to rebound due to stable prices of traditional carbon nanotube conductive pastes and strong growth in sales of new products, particularly single-walled carbon nanotubes [2][10]. - The demand for carbon nanotubes in the lithium battery market is increasing, with a penetration rate projected to reach 18.4% in 2024, up 8 percentage points year-on-year [10]. - The company is a leader in the carbon nanotube industry, holding nearly 50% market share in China, and is advancing its product development with a focus on high-performance materials [10]. Financial Summary - The company's projected revenue for 2024 is 1.449 billion CNY, with a slight increase of 3.2% year-on-year, followed by significant growth of 59.6% in 2025 [5][12]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to be 253 million CNY in 2024, down 14.8% from the previous year, but expected to rise to 495 million CNY in 2025 [5][12]. - The gross margin is projected to improve from 33.6% in 2023 to 38.0% in 2025, indicating a positive trend in profitability [5][12].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [6] Core Views - The revenue growth rate shows marginal improvement, with resilience in net interest margin [10] - The company has adjusted its profit forecasts, predicting a net profit growth of 6.8%/7.7%/8.7% for the years 2025/2026/2027, with a target price of 27.75 CNY per share [3][6] Financial Performance Summary - Revenue (in million CNY) for 2023A is 61,585, with a year-on-year growth of 6.4%, projected to reach 66,631 in 2024A with an 8.2% growth [5] - Net profit attributable to the parent company for 2023A is 25,535 million CNY, with a year-on-year growth of 10.7%, expected to grow to 27,127 million CNY in 2024A, reflecting a 6.2% increase [5] - The company's net interest income for 2023A is 40,907 million CNY, with a projected increase to 47,993 million CNY in 2024A [13] - The company’s total assets are expected to grow from 2,711,662 million CNY in 2023A to 3,125,232 million CNY in 2024A [13] Profitability Metrics - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2023A is 3.75 CNY, projected to increase to 3.95 CNY in 2024A [5] - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio for 2023A is 6.23, expected to decrease to 5.91 in 2024A [5] - The price-to-book (P/B) ratio for 2023A is 0.87, projected to decline to 0.74 in 2024A [5] Asset Quality - The non-performing loan (NPL) ratio remains stable at 0.76% as of the end of 2024, indicating strong asset quality [10] - The company’s provision coverage ratio is reported at 389.4% [10]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 31.59 CNY based on a 27x P/E ratio for 2025 [2][5]. Core Views - The company's performance in 2024 is expected to be impacted by the demand rhythm in the equipment business and a reduction in government subsidies, but growth is anticipated to resume in 2025 [1]. - The revenue for 2024 is projected to decline by 2.7% to 2.45 billion CNY, with a recovery expected in subsequent years, reaching 2.89 billion CNY in 2025, 3.37 billion CNY in 2026, and 3.95 billion CNY in 2027 [4][10]. Financial Forecasts - Earnings per share (EPS) are forecasted to be 1.17 CNY in 2025, 1.35 CNY in 2026, and 1.59 CNY in 2027, with previous estimates adjusted downwards [2][4]. - The company’s gross margin is expected to stabilize around 48.3% in 2025, with net profit margins projected at 33.6% [4][10]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to recover to 970 million CNY in 2025, with further growth to 1.32 billion CNY by 2027 [4][10]. Revenue Breakdown - The report highlights a decline in carbon fiber revenue by 12.91% to 1.45 billion CNY, while carbon beam revenue increased by 25.81% to 537 million CNY [10]. - The T300 grade carbon fiber revenue is expected to drop significantly due to downstream equipment demand, while T800 grade revenue is projected to grow substantially as it begins mass supply [10]. Market Performance - The stock price as of April 8, 2025, was 27.46 CNY, with a 52-week high of 39.87 CNY and a low of 23.73 CNY [5]. - The company’s market capitalization is reported at 22.83 billion CNY [5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 17.43 CNY [2][5]. Core Insights - The company is expected to achieve a net profit attributable to the parent company of 59.47 billion CNY, 82.68 billion CNY, and 101.25 billion CNY for the years 2024-2026, respectively. The average PE valuation of comparable companies for 2025 is 21 times [2]. - The company has experienced significant growth in sales, particularly in its new energy vehicle segment, with notable increases in the sales of its brands Deep Blue and Avita [1][10]. Financial Performance Summary - **Revenue**: The company reported revenues of 121.25 billion CNY in 2022, with projections of 151.30 billion CNY in 2023, 174.82 billion CNY in 2024, 194.29 billion CNY in 2025, and 213.01 billion CNY in 2026, reflecting a growth rate of 15.3% in 2022 and 24.8% in 2023 [4][11]. - **Net Profit**: The net profit attributable to the parent company was 7.80 billion CNY in 2022, expected to rise to 11.33 billion CNY in 2023, but projected to decline to 5.95 billion CNY in 2024 before recovering to 8.27 billion CNY in 2025 and 10.13 billion CNY in 2026 [4][11]. - **Earnings Per Share (EPS)**: EPS is projected to be 0.79 CNY in 2022, increasing to 1.14 CNY in 2023, but expected to drop to 0.60 CNY in 2024, before rising to 0.83 CNY in 2025 and 1.02 CNY in 2026 [4][11]. - **Profit Margins**: The gross margin is expected to decrease from 20.5% in 2022 to 16.1% in 2024, before slightly recovering to 18.0% by 2026 [4][11]. - **Return on Equity (ROE)**: The ROE is projected to decline from 13.2% in 2022 to 8.1% in 2024, with a recovery to 11.5% by 2026 [4][11].