可灵 3.0 有望进一步推进技术前沿 买入（维持） 核心观点 快手-W 01024.HK 公司研究 | 动态跟踪 核心观点：1 月初可灵海外出圈后，整个 1 月看收入和 DAU 端都保持相对高位，热度持 续性表现好。目前数据意义在于整体稳在更高水位后，从 1 月初主要在低 ARPU 地区流 量扩圈（如东南亚、中亚等）→高付费能力地区收入震荡爬升，预期后者对可灵 ARR 提升作用更大。此外新一代可灵 3.0 版本内测中，统一架构下工作流衔接性更好，且区 别于竞品的迭代在于原生文本输出，预计进一步推进技术前沿水平。产品层面更侧重于 专业创作各环节提效，若年前能全量使用，有望延续 1 月产品热度，带动需求释放。 盈利预测与投资建议 ⚫ 我们预测公司 25-27 年经调整归母净利润为 204/225/259 亿元。维持此前给予公司 26 年 18xPE 估值，对应合理价值为 4,048 亿 CNY，折合 4,542 亿 HKD（港币兑人 民币汇率 0.891），目标价 104.36 港元/股，维持"买入"评级。 风险提示 宏观消费恢复不及预期，国内商业化效率不及预期，海外业务亏损加大，可 灵技术迭代不及预期 公司主要 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive (Maintain)" [5] Core Viewpoints - The supply-demand relationship is improving, and price increases for large-sized panels are expected to continue [3][7] - Major panel manufacturers are pushing for production control, which is likely to sustain price increases for large-sized panels [7] - The overall demand for television panels remains stable, supported by upcoming events like the 2026 FIFA World Cup, which is expected to drive stocking demand [7] - Capital expenditures for leading panel manufacturers are anticipated to significantly decrease as the large-scale capital expenditure cycle has passed [7] - Short-term price pressure on mobile OLED panels is expected to be manageable, with a slight decline in global smartphone AMOLED panel shipments projected for 2026 [7] Summary by Sections Investment Suggestions and Targets - The report suggests that the supply-demand relationship is favorable, and price increases for large-sized panels are likely to continue. Recommended stocks include: - Panel manufacturers: TCL Technology, BOE A, Shenzhen Tianma A, Rainbow Technology, Visionox, and Huahui Optoelectronics [3][8] - Panel materials manufacturers: Ruiv Optical, Qingyi Optical, Lite Optical, Woge Optical, Sanlipu, and Shenzhen Textile A [3][8] - Display driver chip manufacturers: Tiande Yu [3][8] - Panel module manufacturers: BOE Precision [3][8]

Core Insights - The report emphasizes that risk appetite is driving asset performance, with a focus on style rotation in equities [2][3] - The overall market sentiment is optimistic, particularly in the context of A-shares, with a notable emphasis on mid-cap blue chips [7][10] - The report suggests a cautious short-term outlook for gold, while maintaining a positive medium-term perspective [7][10] Asset Allocation Strategy - The strategy recommends increasing allocations to A-shares, Chinese bonds, and US stocks, with specific adjustments based on volatility strategies [25][52] - For low-volatility strategies, a slight increase in A-shares and US stocks is advised, while medium-volatility strategies suggest increasing A-shares and Chinese bonds, and reducing gold exposure [37][54] - The report highlights the performance of dynamic all-weather strategies, which have shown annualized returns of 6.0% since 2025 [58] Industry Rotation Strategy - The report recommends focusing on sectors such as non-ferrous metals, chemicals, new energy, military, communications, and electronics for February [39][44] - The industry rotation strategy has outperformed benchmarks, achieving an annualized return of 45.3% since 2025 [41][42] - Two approaches for industry selection are discussed: maintaining previous top sectors for stability and capturing the best-performing sectors for responsiveness [44][50] ETF Strategy - The ETF strategy aligns with the industry rotation and asset allocation strategies, recommending ETFs in sectors like non-ferrous metals, chemicals, new energy, military, communications, and information technology [46][51] - The performance of the ETF industry strategy has also outperformed benchmarks, with an annualized return of 44.8% since 2025 [48][49] - The report outlines two methods for ETF selection, balancing stability and responsiveness to market signals [50][51]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Geely Automobile [3][6] Core Insights - Geely's sales performance in January slightly exceeded industry expectations, with total sales of 270,200 units, a year-on-year increase of 1.3% [9] - The company's export sales saw significant growth, with January exports reaching 60,500 units, a year-on-year increase of 121.2% [9] - The report forecasts net profits for 2025-2027 to be 17.041 billion, 20.604 billion, and 24.318 billion yuan respectively, maintaining a target price of 23.37 HKD [3][5] Financial Summary - Revenue projections for 2023-2027 are as follows: 179.204 billion, 240.194 billion, 319.444 billion, 387.363 billion, and 448.685 billion yuan, with growth rates of 21.1%, 34.0%, 33.0%, 21.3%, and 15.8% respectively [5][10] - Operating profit is expected to grow from 3.806 billion yuan in 2023 to 23.173 billion yuan in 2027, with corresponding growth rates of 4.3%, 100.8%, 110.0%, 22.2%, and 18.1% [5][10] - The gross margin is projected to improve from 15.3% in 2023 to 17.3% in 2027 [10][11] - The report indicates a significant increase in the net profit attributable to the parent company, with a forecast of 5.308 billion yuan in 2023, rising to 24.318 billion yuan by 2027 [5][10]

宏观经济 | 专题报告 报告发布日期 2026 年 02 月 04 日 | 王仲尧 | 执业证书编号：S0860518050001 | | --- | --- | | | 香港证监会牌照：BQJ932 | | | wangzhongyao1@orientsec.com.cn | | | 021-63326320 | | 吴泽青 | 执业证书编号：S0860524100001 | | | wuzeqing@orientsec.com.cn | | | 021-63326320 | | 孙金霞 | 执业证书编号：S0860515070001 | | | sunjinxia@orientsec.com.cn | | | 021-63326320 | | 曹靖楠 | 执业证书编号：S0860520010001 | | | caojingnan@orientsec.com.cn | | | 021-63326320 | | 关注 Q2 美国降息预期重启：——2026 年 | 2026-01-30 | | --- | --- | | 1 月 fomc 点评 | | | 风偏走高，美元和利率反弹影响有限：— | 2026- ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Geely Automobile [3][6] Core Views - Geely's sales performance in January slightly exceeded industry expectations, with total sales of 270,200 units, a year-on-year increase of 1.3% [9] - The company's "oil-electric hybrid" strategy has shown significant results, with January sales of new energy vehicles reaching 124,300 units, a year-on-year increase of 2.6% [9] - Exports have seen substantial growth, with January exports reaching 60,500 units, a year-on-year increase of 121.2% [9] - The Zeekr brand has achieved success in the high-end market, with Zeekr 9X becoming the best-selling large SUV in its price range [9] Financial Forecasts and Investment Recommendations - The forecast for net profit attributable to the parent company for 2025-2027 is 17.041 billion, 20.604 billion, and 24.318 billion yuan respectively, maintaining a target price of 20.79 yuan (RMB) or 23.37 Hong Kong dollars [3] - Revenue projections for 2023-2027 are 179.204 billion, 240.194 billion, 319.444 billion, 387.363 billion, and 448.685 billion yuan, with growth rates of 21.1%, 34.0%, 33.0%, 21.3%, and 15.8% respectively [5][10] - Operating profit is expected to grow significantly, with projections of 3.806 billion, 7.644 billion, 16.055 billion, 19.616 billion, and 23.173 billion yuan for the same period [5][10] - The report indicates a consistent improvement in gross margin, projected to reach 17.3% by 2027 [10]

印尼矿商暂停煤炭出口，煤价上行预期明 显加强 ——煤炭行业动态跟踪报告 核心观点 投资建议与投资标的 投资建议：2026 年国内煤炭供需基本稳定，海外扰动可能成为驱动煤价变化的主要因 素，目前印尼方面已出现明显扰动，煤价具有上涨可能。且从长期角度，全球煤炭贸易 成本将逐步抬升，对国内煤价将形成支撑。优质煤企此前的估值仅反映出"类债"价 值，随着煤价上涨可能性的提高，将逐步向"类债"+"煤价看涨期权"演变，这部分"看涨期 权"价值目前市场反应还较为有限，推荐中国神华(601088，增持)、中煤能源(601898， 增持)、陕西煤业(601225，增持)、晋控煤业(601001，增持)。 风险提示 经济增速下滑；水电出力超预期；海外煤价大幅下跌；政策实施力度不及预期。 行业名称 行业研究 | 动态跟踪 国家/地区 中国 行业 煤炭行业 报告发布日期 2026 年 02 月 04 日 看好（维持） | 蒋山 | 执业证书编号：S0860525110006 | | --- | --- | | | jiangshan2@orientsec.com.cn | | | 0755-82819271 | | 李晓渊 | 执业证 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained as "Positive" [5] Core Insights - The report highlights the investment opportunities in the functional home textile and sports outdoor apparel sectors, particularly favoring companies like Luolai Life (002293, Buy) and Mercury Home Textile (603365, Buy) for home textiles, and Anta Sports (02020, Buy) and Li Ning (02331, Buy) for sports apparel [3][8] - The rise of domestic brands in the luxury goods sector is a significant trend, with local brands expanding from traditional categories into ready-to-wear, footwear, and leather goods, driven by generational shifts and cultural confidence among consumers [8] - High-net-worth individuals are shifting their clothing preferences from high luxury to practical and functional styles, providing long-term growth potential for the sports outdoor industry [8] - There is a notable opportunity in functional home textiles linked to sleep health, as high-net-worth individuals currently express low satisfaction with their sleep quality [8] Summary by Sections Investment Recommendations and Targets - The report recommends focusing on functional home textiles and sports outdoor apparel, highlighting specific companies for investment: Luolai Life (002293, Buy), Mercury Home Textile (603365, Buy), Anta Sports (02020, Buy), Li Ning (02331, Buy), and Xtep International (01368, Buy) [3] Industry Overview - The textile and apparel industry in China is experiencing a transformation, with a focus on functional and practical products that cater to the evolving preferences of high-net-worth consumers [8] - The report emphasizes the potential for growth in the home textile sector, particularly in products that enhance sleep quality, as consumer interest in sleep health increases [8]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" outlook for the banking sector in 2026 [5] Core Insights - The banking sector is expected to return to fundamental narratives in 2026, supported by policy financial tools and resilient asset expansion. The sector is still in a deposit repricing cycle, which is likely to stabilize net interest margins. Structural risks are anticipated to be supported by policy measures [3][32] - The report highlights two main investment themes: 1. High-quality small and medium-sized banks with confirmed fundamentals, including Nanjing Bank (601009, Buy), Ningbo Bank (002142, Buy), and Chongqing Rural Commercial Bank (601077, Buy) 2. State-owned large banks with stable fundamentals and good defensive value, including Bank of Communications (601328, Not Rated) and Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (601398, Not Rated) [3][32] Summary by Sections Impact of Corporate Foreign Exchange Settlement on Interbank Liquidity - Corporate foreign exchange settlement has increased due to the continuous appreciation of the RMB, with a record high of USD 99.9 billion in December 2025. The strong RMB trend is expected to maintain high settlement levels throughout 2026 [8][11] - The settlement process involves two stages: 1. Corporates settle with commercial banks, leading to a decrease in foreign currency deposits and a corresponding decrease in excess reserves. This results in an increase in RMB deposits and a need for banks to match more statutory reserves, which may reduce excess reserves [10][13] 2. If commercial banks settle with the central bank, it results in a decrease in foreign currency assets and an increase in excess reserves, thereby injecting liquidity into the market [10][13] Current Liquidity Conditions - Current liquidity is relatively loose, supported by the central bank's clear stance on maintaining liquidity and stable growth in deposits. Concerns about deposit disintermediation have not materialized, and the overall disintermediation pressure remains moderate [26][32] - The central bank has net injected CNY 1 trillion in medium- and long-term funds through various operations, indicating a proactive approach to liquidity management [15][32]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [5] Core Insights - Copper concentrate is expected to be included in the strategic reserve scope, enhancing the status of key metals [8] - The global average copper ore grade is declining, leading to a sustained tight supply trend, which may further elevate copper's status as a critical metal [8] - The "anti-involution" policy in copper smelting remains unchanged, with expectations for copper prices and smelting fees to rise in the medium term [8] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The copper resource reserve system is being improved, with plans to expand the national copper strategic reserve and explore commercial reserve mechanisms. The import dependency of domestic copper concentrate has reached 75%, indicating a need for enhanced supply chain security [8] Supply and Demand Dynamics - Major copper mining companies have reported a decline in copper production due to falling ore grades. The insufficient capital expenditure by mining companies and the decreasing rate of significant copper resource discoveries suggest that supply will not increase significantly in the medium term. Meanwhile, demand from traditional sectors and emerging fields like renewable energy is expected to grow [8] Policy and Market Trends - The domestic copper smelting capacity is being strictly controlled, with over 2 million tons of copper smelting projects halted. The "anti-involution" policy is expected to gradually show effects in the next two to three years, leading to a potential upward correction in smelting fees [8] Investment Recommendations - For copper mining, it is recommended to focus on Zijin Mining (601899, Buy) due to its large resource reserves and expected production increases. Other notable companies include Luoyang Molybdenum (603993, Not Rated) and Jincheng Mining (603979, Not Rated) [8] - For copper smelting, attention is drawn to Tongling Nonferrous Metals (000630, Buy), which is expected to benefit from increased copper concentrate self-sufficiency and improved spot smelting fee expectations. Jiangxi Copper (600362, Not Rated) is also mentioned [8]