业绩稳健高分红，关注并购新潮进展 分众传媒 24 年&25Q1 业绩点评 核心观点 【事件】公司披露 24 年财报和 25 年一季报：24Q4 实现营业收入 30 亿元(yoy-7.1%)， 归母净利润 11.9 亿元(yoy-3.1%)，扣非归母净利润 11.3 亿元(yoy+0.9%)；24 全年实现 营业收入 123 亿元(yoy+3%)，归母净利润 51.6 亿元(yoy+6.8%)，扣非归母净利润 46.7%(yoy+6.7%)。25Q1 实现营业收入 28.6 亿元(yoy+4.7%)，归母净利润 11.4 亿元 (yoy+9.1%)，扣非归母净利润 9.9 亿元(yoy+4.6%)。公司拟每 10 股派发现金红利 2.3 元 (含税)，合计派发 48 亿元，股利支付率达 92%，对应股息率为 4.69%。 盈利预测与投资建议 ⚫ 我们预测公司 25-27 年归母净利润为 54.5/57.8/61.6 亿元（25-26 年前值为 56.6/60.4 亿元），对应 EPS 为 0.38/0.40/0.43 元。参考公司历史估值 band，采用 过去 3 年平均，给予 25 年 22 倍 PE，目标价 ...

| 消费增长的量价拆解——月度宏观经济回 | 2025-04-28 | | --- | --- | | 顾与展望 | | | 积极迎战外部风险——4 月政治局会议解 | 2025-04-26 | | 读 | | 外贸冲击的衍生影响开始显现——4 月 PMI 点评 研究结论 事件：4 月 30 日统计局公布最新 PMI，其中制造业 PMI 录得 49.0%，较上月下降 1.5 个百分点；非制造业 PMI 录得 50.4%，保持在荣枯线以上。 风险提示 宏观经济 | 动态跟踪 报告发布日期 2025 年 05 月 03 日 | 陈至奕 | 021-63325888*6044 | | --- | --- | | | chenzhiyi@orientsec.com.cn | | | 执业证书编号：S0860519090001 香港证监会牌照：BUK982 | | 孙金霞 | 021-63325888*7590 | | | sunjinxia@orientsec.com.cn | | | 执业证书编号：S0860515070001 | | 曹靖楠 | 021-63325888*3046 | | | caojingnan ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [4][7] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 198.4 billion yuan for 2024, a year-on-year increase of 14%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 5.32 billion yuan, a significant increase of 109% year-on-year. The first quarter of 2025 saw a revenue of 50.6 billion yuan, a 10% increase year-on-year, with a net profit of 1.61 billion yuan, up 64% year-on-year [3][4] Financial Performance Summary - **Revenue**: - 2023: 174.54 billion yuan - 2024: 198.38 billion yuan (13.7% growth) - 2025E: 223.69 billion yuan (12.8% growth) - 2026E: 242.85 billion yuan (8.6% growth) - 2027E: 263.81 billion yuan (8.6% growth) [6] - **Net Profit**: - 2023: 2.55 billion yuan - 2024: 5.32 billion yuan (109% growth) - 2025E: 8.38 billion yuan (57.4% growth) - 2026E: 11.47 billion yuan (36.9% growth) - 2027E: 14.78 billion yuan (28.8% growth) [6] - **Earnings Per Share (EPS)**: - 2023: 0.07 yuan - 2024: 0.14 yuan - 2025E: 0.22 yuan - 2026E: 0.30 yuan - 2027E: 0.39 yuan [6] - **Profitability Ratios**: - Gross Margin: - 2024: 15.2% - 2025E: 16.6% - 2026E: 17.6% - 2027E: 18.4% [6] - Net Margin: - 2024: 2.7% - 2025E: 3.7% - 2026E: 4.7% - 2027E: 5.6% [6] - **Valuation Ratios**: - Price-to-Earnings (PE) Ratio: - 2024: 27.2 - 2025E: 17.3 - 2026E: 12.6 - 2027E: 9.8 [6] Market Position and Product Development - The company remains a leader in the global semiconductor display market, with its LCD products maintaining the highest shipment volume globally. The company is focusing on optimizing product structure and enhancing its market position in innovative applications, particularly in high-end LCD solutions [11] - The company has seen an increase in OLED shipments, with a target of 170 million units for 2025, and has made significant technological advancements in high-end folding products [11] - The company is expanding its influence in the Internet of Things (IoT) market, achieving record sales in high-end TV and gaming products, and has made breakthroughs in self-developed products for educational and office use [11]

行业触及底部，有望迎来复苏 核心观点 盈利预测与投资建议 ⚫ 结合 2024 年原油与产品价格情况，以及公司已披露的生产经营与各项费率情况，我 们调整公司 2025 年每股收益 EPS 预测分别为 0.31 元（原预测 1.02 元），并添加 2026-2027 年预测为 0.39 和 0.49 元。我们采取历史估值法，参考公司过去 5 年 PB （TTM）均值 3.28，考虑到行业景气度底部以及预期 ROE 水平低于历史水平给予 20%折价，按 25 年每股净资产预测值 4.82 元对应目标价为 12.64 元，维持买入评 级。 风险提示 ⚫ 油价大幅波动；行业景气度下行；新材料项目发展不及预期。 公司主要财务信息 | 从沙特愿景计划看荣盛长期发展潜力 | 2024-03-09 | | --- | --- | | 一次极具战略构想的"跨国"炼化合作 | 2024-01-10 | | 全面挖掘四千万吨炼油盈利潜力 | 2024-01-02 | | | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | ...

| | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入(百万元) | 5,257 | 5,358 | 5,605 | 5,851 | 6,080 | | 同比增长 (%) | 13.0% | 1.9% | 4.6% | 4.4% | 3.9% | | 营业利润(百万元) | 884 | 1,059 | 1,198 | 1,315 | 1,407 | | 同比增长 (%) | -5.4% | 19.8% | 13.1% | 9.8% | 7.0% | | 归属母公司净利润(百万元) | 666 | 787 | 890 | 977 | 1,051 | | 同比增长 (%) | -5.9% | 18.2% | 13.1% | 9.7% | 7.6% | | 每股收益（元） | 0.73 | 0.86 | 0.97 | 1.07 | 1.15 | | 毛利率(%) | 67.2% | 65.9% | 66.6% | 67.2% | 67.6% | | 净利率(%) | 12.7% | 14.7% ...

迎驾贡酒 603198.SH 公司研究 | 年报点评 Q1 增速短期承压，看好中长期健康成长 核心观点 盈利预测与投资建议 ⚫ 根据25年一季报，对25-26年下调收入，上调毛利率、费用率。我们预测公司2025- 2027 年每股收益分别为 3.37、3.91、4.46 元（原预测 25-26 年为 4.20、4.92 元）。 结合可比公司，我们认为目前公司的合理估值水平为 2025 年的 17 倍市盈率，对应 目标价为 57.29 元，维持买入评级。 | 业绩增速环比放缓，但仍显现强竞争力 | 2024-10-30 | | --- | --- | | 受益白酒消费价格带下移，业绩有望延续 | 2024-09-19 | | 高增：——迎驾贡酒中秋跟踪点评 | | | 中高档强势增长，结构升级盈利能力提升 | 2024-08-20 | 公司主要财务信息 | | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入(百万元) | 6,771 | 7,344 | 7,430 | 8,468 | 9,4 ...

金融工程 | 动态跟踪 分红对期指的影响 20250430 研究结论 | | 收盘价 | 分红点数 | 实际价差 | 含分红价差 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | IH2505 | 2627.20 | 0.00 | -5.96 | -5.96 | | IH2506 | 2609.20 | 17.72 | -23.96 | -6.24 | | IH2509 | 2578.00 | 61.21 | -55.16 | 6.05 | | IH2512 | 2575.80 | 61.21 | -57.36 | 3.85 | 沪深 300 股指期货: | | 收盘价 | 分红点数 | 实际价差 | 含分红价差 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | IF2505 | 3752.00 | 5.16 | -18.57 | -13.41 | | IF2506 | 3716.20 | 25.40 | -54.37 | -28.97 | | IF2509 | 3663.20 | 71.06 | -107.37 | -36.31 | | IF2512 | 3637 ...

行业触及底部，有望迎来复苏 核心观点 盈利预测与投资建议 ⚫ 结合 2024 年原油与产品价格情况，以及公司已披露的生产经营与各项费率情况，我 们调整公司 2025 年每股收益 EPS 预测分别为 0.31 元（原预测 1.02 元），并添加 2026-2027 年预测为 0.39 和 0.49 元。我们采取历史估值法，参考公司过去 5 年 PB （TTM）均值 3.28，考虑到行业景气度底部以及预期 ROE 水平低于历史水平给予 20%折价，按 25 年每股净资产预测值 4.82 元对应目标价为 12.64 元，维持买入评 级。 风险提示 ⚫ 油价大幅波动；行业景气度下行；新材料项目发展不及预期。 公司主要财务信息 | | 1 周 | 1 月 | 3 月 | 12 月 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 绝对表现% | 1.61 | -6.51 | -7.25 | -28.76 | | 相对表现% | 1.84 | -2.93 | -6.15 | -32.93 | | 沪深 300% | -0.23 | -3.58 | -1.1 | 4.17 | 倪吉 021-63325 ...

基地市场保持稳健增长，24 年控费成效凸 显 核心观点 25.9/8.58/5.50/2.30/10.99 亿元，同比+9.96%/-10.33%/+0.53%/+28.12%/+12.3%。 按地区划分，24 年全年河北/山东/安徽/湖南/其他省份分别实现收入 31.2/2.1/5.5/11.0/3.3 亿元，分别同比+2.6%/+31.4%/+0.5%/+12.3%/+20.7%。 25Q1 河北/山东/安徽/湖南/其他省份分别实现收入 7.2/0.4/1.3/2.1/0.6 亿元，分别同 比+8.0%/+7.9%/+2.5%/+9.7%/-36.6%。24 年年末，公司在河北/山东/安徽/湖南/其 他省份经销商数量分别环比 24Q3 末+16/+17/+13/-66/+13 家。25Q1 末，公司在河 北/山东/安徽/湖南/其他省份经销商数量分别环比 24 年年末+13/-22/+7/+73/+12 家。 ⚫ 24 年控费成果显现费用率降低，25 年营业利润目标增速为 12%。24 全年归母净利 率为 14.69%，同比增加 2.02pct；全年累计销售/管理/财务/研发费用率分别为 23.69%/7. ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating with a target price of HKD 23.25 [3][7] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of CNY 36.22 billion for 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 9%. However, the net profit attributable to the parent company decreased by 41% to CNY 1.15 billion, while the core net profit fell by 5% to CNY 2.23 billion [2][3][7] - The cyclical business showed steady growth, with a revenue of CNY 30.79 billion from cyclical operations, marking a 16% increase year-on-year, which now constitutes 85% of total revenue [7] - The company is actively reducing risks associated with related party transactions, with the proportion of revenue from related party transactions decreasing by 4 percentage points to 9.5% [7] Financial Summary - For 2024, the company’s revenue is projected to be CNY 36.22 billion, with a growth rate of 9.2% [4] - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be CNY 1.15 billion, reflecting a decline of 41.2% [4] - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is forecasted at CNY 1.54, with subsequent years showing an increase to CNY 1.90 in 2026 and CNY 2.10 in 2027 [3][4] - The gross margin is expected to decline to 13.0% in 2024, with a slight recovery projected in the following years [4] - The company’s total assets are estimated to grow from CNY 39.38 billion in 2023 to CNY 50.15 billion by 2027 [9]