固定收益 | 动态跟踪 7 月流动性或仍宽松 研究结论 风险提示 政策变化超预期；货币政策变化超预期；经济基本面变化超预期；信用风险暴露超预 期；数据统计可能存在遗误 利率债市场周观察 | 齐晟 | qisheng@orientsec.com.cn | | --- | --- | | | 执业证书编号：S0860521120001 | | 杜林 | dulin@orientsec.com.cn | | | 执业证书编号：S0860522080004 | | 王静颖 | wangjingying@orientsec.com.cn | | | 执业证书编号：S0860523080003 | | 债市"抢跑"行情或将延续：固定收益市 | 2025-06-23 | | --- | --- | | 场周观察 | | | 超长信用债行情能持续多久：固定收益市 | 2025-06-23 | | 场周观察 | | | 临近季末关注机构行为冲击：固定收益市 | 2025-06-16 | | 场周观察 | | 有关分析师的申明，见本报告最后部分。其他重要信息披露见分析师申明之后部分，或请与您的投资代表联系。并请阅读本证券研究报告 ...

国防军工行业 行业研究 | 动态跟踪 新型号技术成熟叠加后市场格局改变，航 发产业有望迈入全新发展阶段 核心观点 事件：根据中国航空发动机集团官网，张玉金已任中国航发董事长、党组书记。 投资建议与投资标的 航发集团"一把手"调整，航发产业有望重回高增长轨道，我们认为发动机板块有望迈 入全新发展阶段，市场前景广阔，建议关注以下细分领域标的： 风险提示 ⚫ 航发集团"一把手"任命落地，新一届管理团队成型。张玉金曾任中国航发"两 机"重大专项工程副总指挥，中国航发商发董事长、党委书记，中国商用飞机有限 责任公司党委常委、副总经理等职，于 2024 年 4 月任中国兵器装备集团有限公司总 经理、党组副书记；2025 年 2 月重返中国航发任总经理、党组副书记。中国航发专 注航空发动机、辅助动力、燃气轮机及传动系统的研制维修，开展航空关键材料研 发，其成果作为航空装备 "心脏"，直接决定军民用飞机动力性能，全面配装各类 航空装备，同时服务航天、船舶等领域，为装备性能提升与自主可控提供核心支 撑。该职位距离上任董事长卸任空缺了大约两个月，张玉金本次任职意味着中国航 发重新有了掌舵者，航发产业有望重回高增长轨道。 ⚫ 核心 ...

Group 1: Export Trends and Tariff Impacts - The recent Geneva joint statement is seen as a breakthrough in easing US-China trade tensions, but subsequent tariff policy reversals have exceeded expectations, indicating a complex trade environment[4] - The "front-loading + shrinkage" strategy is identified as a key characteristic of China's exports and global trade in 2025, with significant implications for trade volume[4] - Despite concerns about limited "rush exports" before the August tariff exemption expiration, there is still potential for increased exports during this period, particularly in consumer goods[4] Group 2: Inventory and Consumer Behavior - US inventory levels have shown a notable increase, with nominal inventory growth reaching 2.54% year-on-year in March 2025, the second-highest since June 2023, primarily driven by wholesalers[10] - The divergence in inventory and sales ratios suggests that US consumers are beginning to stockpile goods, which may extend the current import replenishment cycle but could lead to greater future demand depletion[15] - The difference between inventory growth and import growth has expanded to over 20 percentage points, indicating significant stockpiling behavior among US residents[15] Group 3: Future Trade Risks and Projections - The long-term risk of increased tariffs from the US remains, with indirect trade channels becoming increasingly important for maintaining trade relations between China and the US[4] - The estimated weighted tariff rate for Chinese exports to the US is approximately 44.3%, with the "Tariff 2.0" expected to have at least double the impact of "Tariff 1.0" on trade volume[42] - Global trade growth risks are significant, with the export-to-GDP ratio likely turning negative in 2025, reflecting a broader trend of trade contraction, particularly in North America[42]

- The report introduces a dividend forecast model to predict the impact of dividends on index futures contracts, specifically for the July contracts of SSE 50, CSI 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 indices [6][10][19] - The model's construction involves estimating component stocks' net profits, calculating pre-tax dividend totals, assessing the impact of dividends on indices, and predicting the influence on futures contracts based on historical dividend timelines and weights [19][20][22] - The formula for estimating stock weights in the index is provided as: $$\mathrm{w_{it}={\frac{w_{i0}\times\mathrm{\(\1+R\)}}{\sum_{1}^{n}w_{i0}\times\mathrm{\(\1+R\)}}}}$$ where \(w_{i0}\) is the initial weight, and \(R\) is the price change ratio over the period [20] - The theoretical pricing model for futures under discrete dividend distribution is: $$F_t = (S_t - D)(1 + r)$$ where \(F_t\) is the futures price, \(S_t\) is the spot price, \(D\) is the present value of dividends, and \(r\) is the risk-free rate [25] - For continuous dividend distribution, the pricing model is: $$F_t = S_t e^{(r-d)(T-t)}$$ where \(d\) is the annualized dividend yield, and other variables are as defined above [26] - The model predicts dividend points for July contracts as follows: SSE 50 (28.77), CSI 300 (27.38), CSI 500 (13.98), and CSI 1000 (12.41) [6][10][13] - The annualized hedging costs (excluding dividends) for July contracts are: SSE 50 (-3.60%), CSI 300 (1.05%), CSI 500 (6.74%), and CSI 1000 (9.50%) [6][10][13] - The remaining impact of dividends on July contracts is estimated as: SSE 50 (1.06%), CSI 300 (0.70%), CSI 500 (0.24%), and CSI 1000 (0.20%) [13] - The report evaluates the model as a useful tool for identifying arbitrage opportunities and managing hedging costs, particularly in the context of dividend season [6][7][10]

Group 1 - The report indicates that the Federal Reserve Chairman Powell has stated that there will be no interest rate cuts until economic data becomes clearer, suggesting a potential policy adjustment window in September [2][11] - Market expectations for interest rate cuts have increased, with traders anticipating three rate cuts in 2025, following Powell's hints and dovish signals from other Fed officials [2][11] - Global markets reacted positively to the rising expectations of rate cuts, with major indices such as Nikkei rising by 4.55%, Nasdaq by 4.25%, and Hang Seng by 3.2% [2][11] Group 2 - The report suggests that the A-share market is experiencing a recovery in risk appetite, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 1.91% and breaking the long-held resistance at 3400 points [3][12] - Short-term risks are identified, including the potential signing of the "Beautiful America Act" by Trump before July 4, 2025, and the implementation of "reciprocal tariffs" if trade agreements are not reached by July 9 [3][12] - The report believes that the impact of the "Beautiful America Act" will be less than expected, and the market has already priced in the worst-case scenarios regarding tariffs [3][12][13] Group 3 - The report emphasizes a positive outlook for the technology and financial sectors, recommending investments in artificial intelligence, military, semiconductors, and financial technology [5][14] - The focus on the technology sector includes areas such as autonomous driving, innovative pharmaceuticals, solid-state batteries, robotics, commercial aerospace, and nuclear fusion [5][14] - The report also highlights the importance of the non-ferrous metals sector, particularly copper and aluminum [5][14]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [6][3]. Core Views - The company held a comprehensive ecosystem launch event on June 26, 2025, introducing products such as the Xiaomi YU7 SUV, Xiaomi AI glasses, and the Xiaomi MIX Flip 2 smartphone [2][11]. - The Xiaomi YU7 has shown strong sales momentum, with over 289,000 pre-orders within the first hour of its launch, significantly surpassing the previous model's performance [12][10]. - The Xiaomi AI glasses are positioned as a personal AI device, featuring advanced hardware and capabilities for smart interaction and enhanced battery life compared to competitors [23][10]. Financial Forecast and Investment Recommendations - The company is projected to achieve earnings per share of 1.35, 1.82, and 2.27 CNY for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with a target price of 75.95 HKD based on a 38x PE ratio for 2026 [3][26]. - Revenue forecasts indicate a growth trajectory from 270,970 million CNY in 2023 to 690,216 million CNY by 2027, reflecting a compound annual growth rate [5][28]. - Operating profit is expected to increase significantly, from 20,009 million CNY in 2023 to 65,077 million CNY in 2027, indicating strong operational efficiency [5][28]. Product and Ecosystem Development - The Xiaomi YU7 SUV features high performance with a range of 835 km and advanced driving assistance technologies, positioning it competitively in the electric vehicle market [10][18]. - The launch of multiple new products across smartphones, tablets, wearables, and home appliances strengthens the company's ecosystem, enhancing its market presence and growth potential [24][10].

- The Beta factor showed a significant positive return of 6.95% this week, indicating a strong market preference for high Beta stocks [10] - The Liquidity factor also performed well with a return of 5.53%, reflecting increased demand for highly liquid assets [10] - The Volatility factor improved significantly with a return of 4.19%, showing heightened market interest in high-volatility assets [10] - The Trend factor experienced a notable decline, with a return of -1.76%, indicating a reduced market preference for trend-following strategies [11] - The Size factor showed a significant drop with a return of -3.30%, indicating a decreased market focus on small-cap stocks [11] - The Value factor also declined sharply, with a return of -3.55%, reflecting a reduced market preference for value investment strategies [11] - The one-year momentum factor performed well across various indices, including the CSI 500 and CSI 1000, indicating strong performance in the past year [7][24][30] - The DELTAROE factor showed strong performance in indices like the CSI 800 and CSI 2000, indicating robust profitability growth [27][33] - The three-month reversal factor also performed well in multiple indices, reflecting a strong short-term reversal trend [7][24][27] - The UMR factors, including one-month, three-month, and six-month UMR, generally performed poorly across various indices, indicating weak momentum [7][24][27][30] - The public fund index enhancement products for the CSI 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 showed varying levels of excess returns, with the CSI 300 products generally outperforming the others [7][46][48][50] - The MFE (Maximized Factor Exposure) portfolio construction method was used to evaluate the effectiveness of individual factors under various constraints, ensuring controlled industry and style exposures [51][52][54][55]

Group 1: Geopolitical Risks and Market Reactions - The recent ceasefire between Israel and Iran has led to a rapid decline in geopolitical risk premiums in oil prices, although further retaliatory actions are expected[5] - The market is currently pricing in two main risks: the overall escalation of the situation and the potential blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, with a 52% probability assigned to the latter by Polymarket[11][12] - Despite the recent military actions, both the US and Iran appear to be seeking a temporary de-escalation of tensions, with the US aiming to control the situation rather than eliminate Iran's nuclear capabilities[13] Group 2: Economic Implications and Strategic Outlook - A blockade of the Strait of Hormuz would benefit oil-producing countries outside the Gulf region, particularly the US and Russia, while harming Gulf states and major consumers like China and Europe[14] - Iran's strategic focus is on repairing its security environment and consolidating a de-escalation of tensions, which contradicts the high-risk nature of a potential blockade[14] - The upcoming EU-China summit on July 23, 2025, may influence market dynamics, although recent criticisms from EU leaders could hinder negotiations[15] Group 3: Market Trends and Financial Indicators - Global stock markets have shown fluctuations, with significant attention on Middle Eastern developments impacting investor sentiment[6] - The 10-year government bond yields have also experienced changes, reflecting market reactions to geopolitical events[8] - The overall atmosphere for EU-China economic negotiations remains cautiously optimistic despite recent tensions, with potential agreements on electric vehicles and rare earth exports[15]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" outlook for the mechanical equipment industry, indicating a favorable investment environment [5]. Core Insights - The upcoming release and accelerated mass production of Optimus Gen3 are expected to drive the humanoid robot sector's growth, potentially reshaping the valuation framework of the industry [2][8]. - The report emphasizes that the humanoid robot industry is currently in a critical phase of mass production, characterized by systematic upgrades rather than disruptive technological changes [8]. - The successful launch of Tesla's Robotaxi demonstrates the integration of autonomous driving, artificial intelligence, and smart manufacturing technologies, which may accelerate the commercialization of Optimus Gen3 [8]. Summary by Sections Investment Recommendations and Targets - The report suggests focusing on three investment themes: companies with Q2 earnings exceeding expectations, those integrated into leading manufacturers' supply chains, and firms innovating in components like screws, dexterous hands, motors, sensors, and reducers [2]. - Recommended companies include: 1. Complete machines and assemblies: UBTECH, Yujian, Estun, Tosida, Efort-U, Zhongjian Technology, Yijiahe, Yongchuang Intelligent, Jack Shares, Lingyi Intelligent Manufacturing, Top Group, Sanhua Intelligent Control, Xinzhi Group, Junpu Intelligent [2]. 2. Components: Wuzhou Xinchun, Zhenyu Technology, Jinwo Shares, Riying Electronics, Zhongxin Fluorine Materials, Saimo Intelligent, Kangping Technology, Zhejiang Rongtai, Rongtai Shares, Green Harmonic, Siling Shares, Jiechang Drive, Zhaowei Electromechanical, Xiangxin Technology, Buke Shares, Weike Technology, Nanshan Zhishang, Hanwei Technology, Lingyun Light, Huayi Technology [2]. 3. Scenarios and applications: Zhongyou Technology, Demar Technology, Yinfeng Storage, Anhui He Li, Hangcha Group, Noli Shares, Shoucheng Holdings [2]. Recent Industry Developments - The report highlights significant recent events in the humanoid robot industry, including the launch of Tesla's Robotaxi and Huawei's CloudRobo platform, which aims to create a 300 billion yuan robot industry [9][10]. - Other notable developments include investments in robotics by various companies and the establishment of research centers focused on humanoid robots [9][10].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained at "Neutral" [7] Core Insights - The launch of Xiaomi YU7 has seen a rapid surge in orders, indicating strong consumer recognition of Xiaomi's product capabilities and brand strength. This is expected to benefit companies within the Xiaomi automotive supply chain [2][7] - Xiaomi YU7's first-day order performance significantly exceeded that of its predecessor, SU7, marking a milestone for Xiaomi in the high-end automotive market. The vehicle's pricing and specifications position it competitively against major rivals like Model Y [7] - Xiaomi's unique ecosystem integration, including smart home connectivity and voice interaction capabilities, is anticipated to enhance the YU7's market appeal and drive sales growth [7] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The report focuses on the automotive and components industry, particularly highlighting the impact of Xiaomi's new model YU7 on the market [4] Investment Recommendations - Recommended stocks to watch include: - Yinlun Machinery (002126, Buy) - Huayang Group (002906, Buy) - Huayu Automotive (600741, Buy) - Jingwei Hirain Technologies (688326, Buy) - Fuyao Glass (600660, Not Rated) - Top Group (601689, Buy) - Desay SV (002920, Buy) - Precision Forging Technology (300258, Buy) [2]