2025 年 5 月 13 日 有色 钨价格创近 10 个月新高，氧化镨钕价格连续两周上涨 ——金属新材料高频数据周报（20250505-20250511） 要点 军工新材料：价格持平。（1）本周电解钴价格 24.00 万元/吨，环比 +0%。 本周电解钴和钴粉比值 0.94 ，环比+0.2%；电解钴和硫酸钴价格比值为 4.87 ，环比+0.2%。（2）碳纤维本周价格 83.8 元/千克，环比+0%。毛利 -18.31 元/千克。（3）铍价格持平。 新能源车新材料：氧化镨钕价格连续两周上涨。（1）本周 Li2O 5%锂精矿中 国到岸价已达到 691 美元/吨，环比 -2.33%。（2）本周电碳、工碳和电池级 氢氧化锂价格分别为 6.92 、6.75 和 6.70 万元/吨，环比 -0.9%、-0.89%和 -1.0%。电碳与工碳价差为 2024 年 11 月以来新低，或代表锂电景气度相较 工业领域有所减弱。（3）本周硫酸钴价格 4.83 万元/吨，环比+0%。（4） 本周磷酸铁锂、523 型正极材料价格分别为 3.33 、10.54 万元/吨，环比 +0%、+0%。（5）本周氧化镨钕价格 423.30 元/公 ...

2025 年 5 月 13 日 晨会速递 分析师点评 市场数据 总量研究 【宏观】以斗争求合作，中方打到美方筹码底线——《大国博弈》系列第八十五篇 从资产价格而言，短期全球将开启一段 risk on 的交易，风险资产价格上涨、避险资 产交易热情暂歇；但美国逆全球化趋势已成，将给资产定价模式和资金流动方向带来 永久性改变，这条慢叙事逻辑依然没有被打破。 【宏观】今年以来"以旧换新"政策效果如何？——《见微知著》第二十一篇 据测算，今年一季度消费品以旧换新（家电、汽车、通讯设备）的财政乘数提高至 2.4，高于去年 9-12 月的 2.1，主要得益于国补范围拓宽至消费电子领域。预计二季 度以旧换新财政乘数仍能保持在较高水平，一是，4 月以来以旧换新申请速度进一步 加快；二是，近期第二批 810 亿元以旧换新资金下达；三是，地方政府因地制宜拓宽 国补范畴，叠加消费券配套发放，更好发挥政策效果。 【策略】【光大证券】A 股市场策略数据库-20250510 大类资产方面，本周大类资产涨多跌少，纳斯达克指数涨幅居前，WTI 原油现货价跌 幅居前。 A 股宽基指数方面，本周宽基指数涨多跌少，中小 100 涨幅居前，科创 50 ...

粮价稳步上行，种植周期崛起 — — 种 植 业 动态跟踪报告 分析师：李晓渊 执业证书编号：S0930523100002 联系人：于明正 2025年5月12日 证券研究报告 核心结论 粮价开启稳步上行，长期增量扩面趋势有望延续。 全球市场：24/25种植季，由于海外天气影响，全球玉米减产，叠加大豆价格低迷影响，新季全球玉米种植面积和产量预测向上，全球供需 预计仍将偏紧平衡。 国内市场：（1）中短期玉米库存压力缓解驱动价格回暖，种植利润修复；（2）25年Q1粮食进口大幅缩量，进口调控保障国内粮价合理、 稳定，利好长期种植意愿和种植面积扩张；（3）替代品方面，小麦供需同样趋紧，饲用替代空间有限，玉米价格仍具备一定上行空间； （4）下游养殖利润回暖，短期需求周期性改善。长期视角下，国内饲用玉米需求量持续增长，需要种植面积和单产水平提升保障主粮安全。 投资建议：把握三条主线，（1）种植：玉米、小麦等主粮价格稳步上行直接利好大种植标的，主营业务利润有望逐步改善，建议关注北大 荒、苏垦农发等；（2）种子：受益于种植景气回升，种业需求基本面逐步改善，关注具备品种优势和强推广能力的企业，建议关注隆平高 科、荃银高科、秋乐种业 ...

2025 年 5 月 12 日 总量研究 以斗争求合作，中方打到美方筹码底线 ——《大国博弈》系列第八十五篇 作者 分析师：高瑞东 执业证书编号：S0930520120002 010-56513108 gaoruidong@ebscn.com 分析师：赵格格 执业证书编号：S0930521010001 0755-23946159 zhaogege@ebscn.com 相关研报 中美会晤前哨观察：特朗普的交易底线—— 《大国博弈》系列第八十四篇（2025-05- 10） 中美关税第二轮，双方在如何出牌？—— 《大国博弈》系列第七十九篇（2025-03- 05） 从减税视角出发，特朗普后续关税力度几 何？——《大国博弈》系列第七十八篇 （2025-02-20） 如何看待美中加墨本轮关税交锋？——《大 国博弈》系列第七十七篇（2025-02-06） 野心与现实：特朗普首日新政评述——《大 国博弈》系列第七十六篇（2025-01-21） 要点 核心观点： 在中国的示范下，越来越多的国家意识到，与美谈判"以斗争求合作则合作存，以 妥协求合作则合作亡"，"美 X 谈判"进展缓慢，对美国经济、市场和特朗普选盘 逐步造成实质 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [5] Core Viewpoints - The controlling shareholder has signed a framework agreement with Japan's TDK to acquire its micro motor business, which includes over 2,000 patents, more than 2,000 employees, and a well-experienced R&D team [1] - The acquisition is expected to enhance the controlling shareholder's high-end micro motor product line, positioning it as a global leader covering the entire product range from high to low-end micro motors [1] - The company's vertical integration capabilities in the camera module supply chain are expected to improve, enhancing long-term profitability [2] - The company has initiated the "Apollo" plan to promote vertical integration of core components in camera modules through partnerships and resources from the controlling shareholder [2] Summary by Sections Camera Module Shipment and Product Structure - From January to April, the shipment volume of camera modules decreased by 16.5% year-on-year, but the proportion of 32MP and above camera modules increased by 9.1 percentage points to 56.5%, indicating a significant optimization in product structure [3] - The fingerprint recognition module shipment increased by 83.1% year-on-year, driven by improved supply-demand dynamics and product structure optimization [3] Financial Forecasts and Valuation - The net profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026 have been raised by 24% and 17% to RMB 602 million and RMB 713 million, respectively, with a new forecast for 2027 at RMB 840 million [3] - Revenue projections for 2023 to 2027 are as follows: RMB 12,530.8 million in 2023, RMB 16,151.3 million in 2024, RMB 19,377.2 million in 2025, RMB 21,701.0 million in 2026, and RMB 23,936.3 million in 2027 [4][10]

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive investment rating for the defense and military industry, highlighting its strong performance compared to other sectors [1][2]. Core Insights - The defense and military theme fund showed a remarkable increase of 4.46% this week, outperforming other thematic funds [2][36]. - The overall market saw a rise in major asset classes, with oil prices increasing by 4.75% and domestic equity indices generally rising [12][14]. - The report notes that the TMT (Technology, Media, and Telecommunications) and gold ETFs experienced significant inflows, while stock ETFs faced net outflows [2][3]. Summary by Sections Market Performance Overview - Major asset classes experienced an overall increase, with the oil index rising by 4.75%, and the ChiNext index increasing by 3.27% [12]. - The defense and military, communication, and electric equipment sectors led the industry gains, with increases of 6.33%, 4.96%, and 4.02% respectively [14]. Fund Product Issuance - A total of 15 new funds were established this week, with a combined issuance of 6.345 billion units, predominantly in stock funds [22][23]. - The largest newly established fund was the Jianxin Shanghai Stock Exchange Sci-Tech Innovation Board Comprehensive Link A, with an issuance of 1.955 billion units [22]. Fund Product Performance Tracking - The defense and military theme fund index rose by 4.46%, while the medical theme fund saw a decline [36]. - The median return for active equity funds was 1.15%, with the top-performing funds in the defense sector showing significant gains [40]. ETF Market Tracking - The TMT theme ETF saw a notable inflow of 32.65 billion yuan, while the overall stock ETF market experienced a net outflow of 85.14 billion yuan [3][2]. - Commodity ETFs, particularly gold, continued to attract investment, indicating a shift in investor sentiment [2]. ESG Financial Products Tracking - The green bond market saw a slight decrease in issuance, with 6 new bonds totaling 6.641 billion yuan this week [4]. - Active equity, passive index, and bond ESG funds showed median returns of 1.54%, 2.04%, and 0.14% respectively, with low-carbon and sustainable development themes performing particularly well [4].

2025 年 5 月 12 日 行业研究 看好生命科学上游高端试剂国产替代 ——医药生物行业跨市场周报（20250512） 要点 行情回顾：上两周，医药生物指数上涨 1.50%，跑输沪深 300 指数 0.06pp，跑 输创业板综指 2.80pp，在 31 个子行业中排名第 16，表现一般。港股恒生医疗 健康指数上两周收跌 1.48%，跑输恒生国企指数 4.31pp。 上市公司研发进度跟踪：上两周，百济神州的注射用 BG-C9074、华东医药的注 射用 HDM2005 的临床申请新进承办；百济神州的 BGB-45035 片的 IND 申请新 进承办。恩华药业的 NH600001、百利天恒的 BL-M07D1 正在进行三期临床； 益方生物的 D-2570 正在进行二期临床；豪森药业的 HS-20118 正在进行一期临 床。 本周观点：看好生命科学上游高端试剂国产替代。 近日，默克生命科学发文称：因全球关税政策变动，自 5 月 12 日起对中国区产 品订单实施临时附加费，以应对成本上升并维持运营稳定性，同时承诺将根据政 策变化灵活调整费用。正如我们在 2023 年 7 月 4 日发布的报告《科研服务：千 亿市场空 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Huahong Semiconductor (1347.HK) [6] Core Views - The company achieved revenue of $541 million in Q1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 17.6% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 0.3%, aligning with the company's guidance of $530 to $550 million [1] - The overall demand is expected to gradually recover, with structural growth in demand for products such as analog and power management due to US-China tariff policies [2] - The company is accelerating capacity expansion, with monthly production capacity expected to reach 40,000 wafers by the end of 2025 [3] - The forecast for net profit has been revised downwards for 2025-2027 due to increased depreciation pressure from accelerated capacity expansion, with expected net profits of $80 million, $180 million, and $270 million respectively [4] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Q1 2025 revenue was $541 million, with 8-inch wafer revenue at $230 million (down 4% YoY) and 12-inch wafer revenue at $310 million (up 41% YoY) [1] - Q1 2025 gross margin was 9.2%, slightly above the lower end of the guidance range of 9%-11%, with a year-on-year increase of 2.8 percentage points [1] Demand and Market Outlook - The company expects a gradual recovery in downstream demand, with electronic consumer goods revenue accounting for 64.3% of total revenue, growing 20.9% YoY [2] - The ASP for 12-inch wafers shows signs of price increases, while the 8-inch wafer ASP is stabilizing but lacks upward momentum [2] Capacity Expansion - Huahong Semiconductor is actively advancing the construction of new manufacturing facilities, with a projected monthly capacity of 40,000 wafers by the end of 2025 [3] - Capital expenditures in Q1 2025 amounted to $510.9 million, with significant investments in 12-inch wafer production [3] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The net profit forecast for 2025-2027 has been adjusted downwards, reflecting increased depreciation pressure from capacity expansion [4] - The current stock price corresponds to a P/E ratio of 94x for 2025 and 41x for 2026, indicating a favorable long-term growth outlook supported by capacity expansion [4]

2025 年 5 月 12 日 行业研究 "五一"假期人形机器人在多地亮相，工程机械景气度持续复苏 ——机械行业周报 2025 年第 18-19 周（2025.4.28-2025.5.11） 机械行业 买入（维持） 作者 分析师：黄帅斌 执业证书编号：S0930520080005 0755-23915357 huangshuaibin@ebscn.com 分析师：陈佳宁 执业证书编号：S0930512120001 021-52523851 chenjianing@ebscn.com 分析师：汲萌 执业证书编号：S0930524010002 021-52523859 jimeng@ebscn.com 分析师：李佳琦 执业证书编号：S0930524070006 021-52523836 lijiaqi@ebscn.com 联系人：夏天宇 xiatianyu@ebscn.com 行业与沪深 300 指数对比图 要点 重点子行业观点 人形机器人： 5 月 7 日，"联想 Tech World 2025 创新科技大会"在上海世博中心举行，会上"联 想乐享壹号"人形机器人正式亮相。实景演示中，该机器人表演了一段太极拳，展 ...

2025 年 5 月 12 日 总量研究 今年以来"以旧换新"政策效果如何？ ——《见微知著》第二十一篇 作者 分析师：高瑞东 执业证书编号：S0930520120002 010-56513066 gaoruidong@ebscn.com 分析师：刘星辰 执业证书编号：S0930522030001 021-52523880 liuxc@ebscn.com 相关研报 从上市公司三季报看政策刺激效果——《见 微知著》系列第二十篇（2024-11-16） 政策组合拳出击，有效激活财富效应——《见 微知著》系列第十九篇（2024-11-01） 从中报数据看当前经济的微观结构——《见 微知著》系列第十八篇（2024-09-05） 为何高能级城市消费走弱？——《见微知著》 系列第十七篇（2024-08-14） 如何理解房地产"一揽子"优化方案？—— 《见微知著》系列第十六篇（2024-05-18） 财报数据显示当前经济的微观感受如何？ ——《见微知著》系列第十五篇（2024-05-12） 保障房化解地产库存，进度几何？——《见 微知著》系列第十四篇（2024-03-19） 经济弱复苏？来自上市公司的微观线索—— 《见微知 ...