Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, both the convertible bond market and the equity market declined. Currently, it is recommended to select bonds in a refined manner, comprehensively judge based on convertible bond terms and the situation of the underlying stocks, and pay attention to the forced redemption risk of individual bonds [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market行情 - From January 26 to January 30, 2026 (a total of 5 trading days), the change rate of the CSI Convertible Bond Index was -2.61% (last week's change rate was +2.92%), and the change of the CSI All - Share Index was -1.54% (last week's change rate was +1.76%). Since 2026, the change rate of the CSI Convertible Bond Index has been +5.82%, and the change rate of the CSI All - Share Index has been +5.75% [1]. - In terms of ratings, the high - rated bonds (rated AAA), medium - high - rated bonds (rated AA+), medium - rated bonds (rated AA), medium - low - rated bonds (rated AA -), and low - rated bonds (rated AA - and below) had change rates of -0.81%, -1.48%, -1.51%, -1.87%, and -2.81% respectively this week, with high - rated bonds having the lowest decline [1]. - In terms of convertible bond scale, large - scale convertible bonds (bond balance greater than 2 billion yuan), medium - large - scale convertible bonds (balance between 1.5 and 2 billion yuan), medium - scale convertible bonds (balance between 1 and 1.5 billion yuan), small - medium - scale convertible bonds (balance between 0.5 and 1 billion yuan), and small - scale convertible bonds (balance less than 0.5 billion yuan) had change rates of -1.42%, -1.59%, -1.93%, -1.49%, and -2.49% respectively this week, with large - scale convertible bonds having the lowest decline [2]. - In terms of parity, ultra - high - parity bonds (conversion value greater than 130 yuan), high - parity bonds (conversion value between 120 and 130 yuan), medium - high - parity bonds (conversion value between 110 and 120 yuan), medium - parity bonds (conversion value between 100 and 110 yuan), medium - low - parity bonds (conversion value between 90 and 100 yuan), low - parity bonds (conversion value between 80 and 90 yuan), and ultra - low - parity bonds (conversion value less than 80 yuan) had change rates of +2.18%, +1.72%, -2.91%, +2.45, +1.51%, -4.29%, +5.97%, and -0.43% respectively this week, with low - parity bonds having the highest increase [2]. Convertible Bond Price, Parity, and Conversion Premium Rate - As of January 30, 2026, there were 392 outstanding convertible bonds (394 at the close of last week), with a balance of 548.015 billion yuan (550.573 billion yuan at the close of last week). - The average convertible bond price was 140.56 yuan (141.26 yuan at the close of last week), and the quantile was 99.33% (quantile from the beginning of 2023 to January 30, 2026). - The average convertible bond parity was 109.04 yuan (109.62 yuan at the close of last week), and the quantile was 99.33%. - The average conversion premium rate of convertible bonds was 34.49% (32.88% at the close of last week), and the quantile was 52.08% [3]. Convertible Bond Performance and Allocation Direction - This week, both the convertible bond market and the equity market declined. Currently, it is recommended to select bonds in a refined manner, comprehensively judge based on convertible bond terms and the situation of the underlying stocks, and pay attention to the forced redemption risk of individual bonds [4]. Convertible Bond Increase Situation - The top 15 convertible bonds in terms of increase this week are as follows: | Rank | Convertible Bond Name | Underlying Stock Name | Industry | Latest Closing Price (Yuan) | Convertible Bond Increase (%) | Underlying Stock Increase (%) | | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | | 1 | Lianrui Convertible Bond | Lianrui New Materials | Basic Chemicals | 226.51 | 44.00 | -5.66 | | 2 | Tianzhun Convertible Bond | Tianzhun Technology | Machinery and Equipment | 266.57 | 16.12 | 14.23 | | 3 | Baichuan Convertible Bond 2 | Baichuan Co., Ltd. | Basic Chemicals | 149.00 | 12.75 | 29.25 | | 4 | Outong Convertible Bond | Outong Co., Ltd. | Power Equipment | 742.86 | 8.01 | 14.48 | | 5 | Haomei Convertible Bond | Haomei New Materials | Non - ferrous Metals | 262.00 | 7.22 | -0.05 | | 6 | Yunji Convertible Bond | Yunji Group | Machinery and Equipment | 404.50 | 7.01 | 4.53 | | 7 | Aofei Convertible Bond | Aofei Data | Communications | 317.00 | 6.02 | 10.22 | | 8 | Jize Convertible Bond | Jize New Energy | Public Utilities | 244.99 | 5.65 | 6.85 | | 9 | Jinji Convertible Bond | Jinji Co., Ltd. | Basic Chemicals | 151.00 | 4.72 | 19.60 | | 10 | Saite Convertible Bond | Saite New Materials | Basic Chemicals | 152.62 | 4.16 | 14.99 | | 11 | Xiaoming Convertible Bond | Xiaoming Co., Ltd. | Agriculture, Forestry, Animal Husbandry and Fishery | 145.68 | 4.15 | 13.89 | | 12 | Jin05 Convertible Bond | Jinpan Technology | Power Equipment | 208.25 | 3.69 | -7.47 | | 13 | Yubang Convertible Bond | Yubang New Materials | Power Equipment | 160.16 | 3.68 | 9.82 | | 14 | Tianyuan Convertible Bond | Wuhan Tianyuan | Environmental Protection | 272.20 | 3.68 | -2.86 | | 15 | Huairui Convertible Bond | Huairui Precision | Machinery and Equipment | 159.44 | 3.37 | 3.14 | [20]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - From January 26 to January 30, 2026, the secondary - market prices of listed public REITs in China showed a fluctuating upward trend. The returns of REITs ranked third among major asset classes, behind only crude oil and ahead of other assets such as pure bonds, US stocks, A - shares, gold, and convertible bonds. Different types of REITs also showed varying performance in terms of price, trading volume, and net inflow of funds [1][11]. - In the primary market, no new REITs were listed this week, but the project status of 10 REITs was updated, and 8 commercial real - estate REITs were declared [4][41]. 3. Summary According to the Directory Secondary Market Price Trends - **At the major asset level**: The secondary - market prices of listed public REITs in China showed a fluctuating upward trend. The China Securities REITs (closing) and the China Securities REITs Total Return Index closed at 809.56 and 1052.42 respectively, with weekly returns of 0.35% and 0.47%. The weighted REITs index had a weekly return of 0.42%. Compared with other major asset classes, the return ranking from high to low was: crude oil > REITs > pure bonds > US stocks > A - shares > gold > convertible bonds [11]. - **At the underlying asset level**: Both equity - type and franchise - type REITs saw price increases. The return of equity - type REITs was 0.27%, and that of franchise - type REITs was 0.68%. Among different underlying asset types, water conservancy facilities REITs had the largest increase, with the top three return - ranking underlying asset types being water conservancy facilities, energy, and transportation infrastructure, with returns of 2.04%, 1.55%, and 0.44% respectively [16][19]. - **At the single - REIT level**: Among the REITs, 41 rose, 1 remained flat, and 36 fell. The top three in terms of increase were Bosera Jinkai Industrial Park REIT, ICBC Mengneng Clean Energy REIT, and China Asset Management China Overseas Commercial REIT, with increases of 4.94%, 4.64%, and 4.52% respectively. The top three in terms of decline were E Fund Guangkai Industrial Park REIT, China Asset Management Hefei High - tech REIT, and BOC Sinotrans Warehouse Logistics REIT, with declines of 5.03%, 3.39%, and 2.68% respectively [22]. Trading Volume and Turnover Rate - **At the underlying asset level**: The trading volume of public REITs this week was 3.18 billion yuan. The new - type infrastructure REITs led in the average daily turnover rate during the period. The total trading volume of the 78 listed REITs was 3.18 billion yuan, and the average daily turnover rate during the period was 0.68%. In terms of trading volume, the top three REIT asset types were park infrastructure, consumer infrastructure, and transportation infrastructure, with trading volumes of 644 million yuan, 561 million yuan, and 541 million yuan respectively. In terms of turnover rate, the top three were new - type infrastructure, ecological and environmental protection, and municipal facilities, with average daily turnover rates of 1.06%, 0.80%, and 0.77% respectively [24]. - **At the single - REIT level**: The trading volume and turnover rate of single REITs continued to show differentiation. In terms of trading volume, the top three were China Asset Management Hefei High - tech REIT, Bosera Shekou Industrial Park REIT, and Harvest JD Warehouse Infrastructure REIT, with trading volumes of 410 million shares, 360 million shares, and 300 million shares respectively. In terms of trading value, the top three were China Asset Management China Resources Commercial REIT, Southern Runze Technology Data Center REIT, and Harvest JD Warehouse Infrastructure REIT, with trading values of 128 million yuan, 109 million yuan, and 109 million yuan respectively. In terms of turnover rate, the top three were CICC Yizhuang Industrial Park REIT, Harvest JD Warehouse Infrastructure REIT, and CITIC Construction Shenyang International Software Park REIT, with turnover rates of 12.23%, 8.97%, and 8.71% respectively [27]. Net Inflow of Main Funds and Block Trading - **Net inflow of main funds**: The total net inflow of main funds this week was 149.1 million yuan, and the market trading enthusiasm decreased compared with last week. At the level of different underlying asset REITs, the top three in terms of net inflow during the period were consumer infrastructure, park infrastructure, and energy infrastructure, with net inflows of 72.01 million yuan, 29.45 million yuan, and 19.13 million yuan respectively. At the single - REIT level, the top three in terms of net inflow were China Asset Management China Resources Commercial REIT, CICC Yizhuang Industrial Park REIT, and CICC Yinli Consumer REIT, with net inflows of 38.6 million yuan, 15.9 million yuan, and 14.47 million yuan respectively [30]. - **Block trading**: The total block - trading volume this week reached 366 million yuan, a decrease compared with last week. There were block - trading transactions on 5 trading days, with a total block - trading volume of 366 million yuan. The block - trading volume on Wednesday (January 28, 2026) was the highest during the period, reaching 108.06 million yuan. At the single - REIT level, the top three in terms of block - trading volume were Ping An Ningbo Jiaotou REIT, Huatai Baowan Logistics REIT, and Harvest JD Warehouse Infrastructure REIT, with trading volumes of 180.62 million yuan, 45.8 million yuan, and 42.87 million yuan respectively, and corresponding average discount - premium rates of - 1.66%, - 2.11%, and - 0.01% respectively [33]. Primary Market Listed Projects - As of January 30, 2026, there were 78 public REIT products in China, with a total issuance scale of 201.749 billion yuan. Among them, transportation infrastructure had the largest issuance scale, reaching 68.771 billion yuan, followed by park infrastructure REITs, with an issuance scale of 32.933 billion yuan. No new REIT products were listed this week [37]. Projects to be Listed - According to the project announcements of the Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Exchanges, there were 22 REITs in the to - be - listed state, including 20 initial - offering REITs and 2 REITs to be expanded. This week, the project status of AVIC Beijing Changbao Rental Housing Closed - end Infrastructure Securities Investment Fund (initial offering) and CICC Xiamen Torch Industrial Park Closed - end Infrastructure Securities Investment Fund (initial offering) was updated to "inquired". In addition, 8 commercial real - estate REITs were declared [41].

2026 年 1 月 31 日 总量研究 沃什将如何重塑政策路径与市场预期？ ——解构美国系列第十八篇 作者 分析师：赵格格 执业证书编号：S0930521010001 0755-23946159 zhaogege@ebscn.com 分析师：周欣平 执业证书编号：S0930525070005 010-57378026 zhouxinping@ebscn.com 相关研报 美国政府停摆：阴影逐步消散——解构美国 系列第十七篇（2026-01-21） 特朗普如何激活美国地产：现实与挑战—— 解构美国系列第十六篇（2025-12-27） 胶着的医保谈判，不确定的政府停摆—— 《大国博弈》系列第九十二篇（2025-12- 15） 美国政府重新开门，市场为何"不买账"？ ——解构美国系列第十五篇（2025-11-18） 美元指数突破 100 后，强势美元将维持多 久？——解构美国系列第十四篇（2025-11- 06） 特朗普升级全球关税战，对华后续军棋推演 ——《大国博弈》系列第八十一篇（2025- 04-03） 减税法案或是美国经济预期转折点——解构 美国系列第十一篇（2025-03-26） 美国政府停摆迫近，影响 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Microsoft (MSFT.O) [6] Core Insights - Microsoft reported FY26Q2 earnings that exceeded expectations, driven by investment income, with total revenue of $81.3 billion, a year-over-year increase of 17%, and a net profit of $38.5 billion, reflecting a 60% increase primarily due to the revaluation of OpenAI investments [1][4] - Azure's revenue growth remains strong at approximately $32.9 billion, up 29% year-over-year, but is constrained by the allocation of available computing power [2] - The productivity and business processes segment achieved revenue of $34.1 billion, a 16% increase year-over-year, while the more personal computing segment saw a decline of 3% in revenue to $14.3 billion [3] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - FY26Q2 revenue reached $81.3 billion, with a 17% year-over-year growth, and operating profit of $38.3 billion, up 21%, resulting in an operating margin of 47.1% [1] - Non-GAAP net profit, excluding OpenAI investment impacts, was $30.9 billion, reflecting a 23% year-over-year increase [1] Cloud Business - The intelligent cloud segment generated approximately $32.9 billion in revenue, with Azure and other cloud services growing by 39% year-over-year, maintaining growth rates from the previous quarter [2] - Azure's revenue guidance for FY26Q3 is projected to grow by 37%-38% year-over-year, despite short-term constraints on revenue release due to resource allocation and internal prioritization [2] Capital Expenditure and AI Investment - Capital expenditures in FY26Q2 remained high, with significant investments in fixed assets and data centers, expected to increase by over 80% year-over-year in AI-related capacity [4] - The management anticipates that capital expenditures will pressure free cash flow in the short term but will solidify the company's long-term leadership in AI infrastructure [4] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The report forecasts net profits for FY2026, FY2027, and FY2028 to be $130.3 billion, $142.6 billion, and $166.8 billion respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 25x, 23x, and 19x [4][5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a projected investment return exceeding the market benchmark by more than 15% over the next 6-12 months [6]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of $770.2 million for FY26Q3, representing a year-on-year growth of 27.0%. The net profit attributable to shareholders reached $130.6 million, a significant increase of 466.1% year-on-year. The Non-GAAP net profit was $141.4 million, up 266.6% year-on-year [1]. - The learning services and other segments showed robust growth, with offline small class revenues increasing due to higher enrollment numbers and stable pricing. The online quality courses also saw growth driven by technological innovations and enhanced user experience [1][2]. - Cost control measures led to a notable improvement in profit margins, with the Non-GAAP net profit margin reaching 18.4%, an increase of 12.0 percentage points year-on-year [3]. Financial Projections - The company has revised its net profit forecasts for FY2026 to FY2028 upwards to $369 million, $482 million, and $606 million respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 21x, 16x, and 13x [4]. - Revenue projections for FY2024 to FY2028 are set at $1.49 billion, $2.25 billion, $2.975 billion, $3.764 billion, and $4.606 billion, with growth rates of 46.2%, 51.0%, 32.2%, 26.5%, and 22.4% respectively [5][10].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report indicates that the Federal Reserve is unlikely to restart interest rate cuts in the first quarter of 2026, as the job market stabilizes and inflation has not yet shown a downward turning point [2] - The report highlights that New Oriental's FY26Q2 performance exceeded expectations, with net revenue of $1.191 billion, a year-on-year increase of 14.7%, and a net profit of $45.45 million, up 42.3% year-on-year [5] - The report projects an upward revision of New Oriental's net profit forecasts for FY26 to FY28, with estimates raised to $497 million, $585 million, and $680 million respectively, reflecting a 13%, 14%, and 17% increase [5] Group 2 - The A-share stock selection for February 2026 includes companies such as Zhongji Xuchuang, Hikvision, and China Life, indicating a focus on stable holdings during the holiday period [3] - The report notes that the bond market is increasingly influenced by non-bank financial sectors, emphasizing the need for macro-prudential mechanisms to address risks in the bond market [4]

Investment Rating - The report upgrades the investment rating of New Oriental-S (9901.HK) to "Buy" [1] Core Insights - FY26Q2 revenue reached USD 1.191 billion, a year-on-year increase of 14.7%, exceeding previous guidance. Net profit attributable to shareholders was USD 45.45 million, up 42.3% year-on-year, while Non-GAAP net profit attributable to shareholders was USD 72.90 million, reflecting a 68.6% increase year-on-year [5][6] - The company has raised its full-year revenue guidance for FY26 to USD 5.292-5.488 billion, representing a year-on-year growth of 8%-12%, up from the previous guidance of 5%-10% [7] - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of USD 0.12 per share and has initiated a USD 300 million share buyback program, indicating management's confidence in future growth [7] Revenue Performance - The revenue breakdown for FY26Q2 shows: 1) Overseas business revenue grew by 4.1% year-on-year, focusing on core exam preparation needs 2) Domestic exam preparation for adults and university students saw a 12.8% year-on-year increase, becoming a core revenue support 3) New educational businesses reported a 21.6% year-on-year revenue growth, with significant expansion in non-subject tutoring across approximately 60 cities [6] 4) Dongfang Zhenxuan achieved revenue of RMB 2.3 billion in the six months ending November 30, 2025, a 5.7% year-on-year increase, and turned a profit of RMB 239 million [6] Profitability and Efficiency - FY26Q2 Non-GAAP operating profit was USD 89.13 million, a significant increase of 206.9% year-on-year, with an operating profit margin of 7.5%, up 4.7 percentage points year-on-year [8] - The improvement in profitability is attributed to a focus on core operations, cost reduction measures, and efficiency optimization through organizational restructuring and AI technology [8] Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The earnings forecast for FY26-28 has been revised upwards, with net profit estimates of USD 497 million, USD 585 million, and USD 680 million for FY26, FY27, and FY28 respectively, reflecting increases of 33.8%, 17.7%, and 16.2% [9] - The projected EPS for FY26-28 is USD 0.31, USD 0.37, and USD 0.43, with corresponding P/E ratios of 18x, 15x, and 13x, indicating a strong position in the education and training industry [9][10]

Monetary Policy - The Federal Reserve maintained the federal funds rate target range at 3.50%-3.75% during the January meeting, aligning with market expectations[2] - The market anticipated a pause in rate cuts with a probability exceeding 97% prior to the meeting[5] Economic Conditions - After three rate cuts in 2025, the current U.S. interest rate is close to the neutral rate, with a stabilizing job market and improved liquidity in financial markets, but inflation has not yet shown a downward trend[3] - The unemployment rate decreased from 4.5% in November 2025 to 4.4% in December 2025, indicating a stabilizing job market[7] Inflation and Future Projections - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) for December 2025 was 2.7%, unchanged from November, still above the Fed's 2% target, with expectations of a potential rise to 3.0% in March 2026[7] - The Fed is expected to maintain a cautious approach to rate cuts, with potential cuts of 2-3 times in 2026, particularly if tariff-related inflation shows signs of easing by mid-year[15] Market Reactions - Following the January meeting, the Dow Jones Industrial Average, S&P 500, and Nasdaq Composite Index showed minor fluctuations, with changes of +0.02%, -0.01%, and +0.17% respectively[4] - The 10-year Treasury yield rose by 2 basis points to 4.26%, while the 2-year yield increased by 3 basis points to 3.56%[4] Risks - Key risks include faster-than-expected inflation, economic downturns, potential interference in Fed appointments, and escalating international trade conflicts[17]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The necessity of the central bank creating a new monetary policy tool for precise regulation of money market interest rates is not high, as the current money market interest rates are running stably, and there are already similar tools [1]. - Even if such a new tool is created, it will not have a significant impact on bond market interest rates, as it will neither change the anchoring method of the bond market nor the operating characteristics of DR001 [2]. - There is no urgent need to create a liquidity - absorbing tool similar to the Fed's ON RRP in China, as DR001 has never "broken through" the lower corridor of the interest - rate corridor [2]. - The discussion about the central bank creating a new monetary policy tool may be triggered by the People's Bank of China's proposal to "innovate and enrich the policy toolbox" at the 2026 macro - prudential work conference. However, the mechanism proposed by Governor Pan Gongsheng is for specific scenarios and macro - prudential purposes, not for precise regulation of money market interest rates, and its necessity is greater than that of the so - called "new tool" for precise regulation [3][4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalog 3.1 Recent Speculation on "Newly Established Monetary Policy Tools" - **Unnecessary to create new tools for precise regulation of money market rates**: Since the second half of 2025 to January 28, 2026, the average value of DR001 was 1.35%, close to the 7D OMO rate of 1.4%. In 2025, the standard deviation of DR001 was 0.20, at a low level since 2019. There are already similar tools, such as the overnight temporary repo operations established in 2024. If necessary, the spread can be compressed instead of creating a new tool [1]. - **No significant impact on bond market rates if new tools are created**: DR interest rate is the anchor of bond market valuation. A new tool will neither change the anchoring method of the bond market nor the operating characteristics of DR001 [2]. - **No urgent need to create a liquidity - absorbing tool**: The Fed created ON RRP to solve the problem of the ineffective lower corridor of the interest - rate corridor due to excessive liquidity. In China, DR001 has never "broken through" the lower corridor (excess reserve interest rate), so there is no urgent need for such a tool [2]. - **Trigger of the speculation**: The People's Bank of China's proposal to "innovate and enrich the policy toolbox" at the 2026 macro - prudential work conference may have triggered the market discussion. Governor Pan Gongsheng mentioned exploring a mechanism to provide liquidity to non - bank institutions in specific scenarios, but this is for macro - prudential purposes, not for precise regulation of money market rates [3][4].

Group 1: Market Overview - The total scale of convertible bonds held by funds decreased to 308.256 billion yuan at the end of Q4 2025, down by 8.362 billion yuan from Q3 2025 [2] - The banking sector continues to have a large scale of convertible bonds held by funds, with significant holdings in the power equipment, basic chemicals, electronics, and agriculture sectors [2] - The largest increase in individual convertible bonds held by funds was seen in the Xingye convertible bond, while the non-ferrous metals sector experienced the most significant reduction in holdings [2] Group 2: Banking Sector Insights - Corporate loans acted as a stabilizing force, with double-digit growth maintained in technology sectors, while real estate loans continued to show negative growth [3] - Qingdao Bank reported a revenue of 14.6 billion yuan for 2025, representing an 8% year-on-year increase, and a net profit of 5.2 billion yuan, up 21.7% year-on-year, marking the successful completion of a three-year strategic plan [3] - The bank's asset expansion intensity has increased, with loans maintaining double-digit growth and a reduction in non-performing loans, indicating strong risk compensation capabilities [3] Group 3: Energy Sector Developments - China National Petroleum Corporation emphasized its role in energy supply security and outlined key tasks for the current and future periods during its 2026 work meeting [4] - The integrated advantages of the China National Petroleum Corporation's entire industry chain suggest investment opportunities in companies such as China National Petroleum, Kunlun Energy, and others [4]