Economic Overview - In May, industrial added value growth year-on-year was 5.8%, a slight decline of 0.3 percentage points from April, indicating a continued slowdown in industrial production[4] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) in May remained at a historical low, with a month-on-month decrease of 0.4%, reflecting a cooling total demand[4] - Fixed asset investment growth in May was 2.7%, down 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, with widespread declines in infrastructure, real estate, and manufacturing investments[7] Investment Trends - Infrastructure investment (including electricity) in May grew by 9.3%, a slight decline of 0.3 percentage points from April, while real estate investment fell by 12.0% year-on-year[7][10] - Private investment in May showed a year-on-year decline of 0.6%, indicating weak long-term investment intentions among private enterprises[8] Consumer Behavior - Retail sales of consumer goods in May increased by 6.4% year-on-year, up 1.3 percentage points from the previous month, driven by essential and durable goods[13] - However, optional consumer goods showed a significant slowdown, with growth rates dropping to around 0, indicating weak internal demand recovery[14] Monetary Policy and Market Sentiment - The latest U.S. inflation data for May was weaker than expected, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) at 2.4% year-on-year, suggesting limited impact from tariff policies[23][24] - The Federal Reserve is expected to maintain its current interest rates during the upcoming FOMC meeting, awaiting clearer signals before considering rate cuts[25] Risks and Outlook - Risks include geopolitical tensions and potential policy changes that exceed expectations, which could impact economic stability[3] - Overall, the economic slowdown is expected to be moderate, with manageable risks of economic stall due to ongoing tariff negotiations and growth stabilization policies[2][14]

2025 年 06 月 16 日 传媒 AI to C 4 方向： 05：稳定币、NFT 与传媒板块的逻辑 稳定币一直都有，当下市场关注度源于其加速合法化。 稳定币的产生，是为了对冲加密货币的高波动性。加密货币的 波动与众多繁杂因素（货币政策、宏观流动性、金融工具、政 治风险）高度相关，且缺乏"价值锚"；稳定币以美元作为虚 拟"货币"锚，2014 年开始，各类稳定币（如 USDT）陆续被 推出，以期解决加密货币的波动性和流动性问题。当下市场的 关注度较高，源于稳定币因法案、草案等合法性进程的陆续推 进。5 月 19 日，美国稳定币法案在参议院通过程序性立法（后 续还需要经过参议院和众议院表决，才能签署成法）；5 月 21 日，香港通过了《稳定币条例草案》（资料来源：财新网）。美 国市场偏好交易性、金融性，加密货币、稳定币是天然契合美 国文化的产物。 NFT 与稳定币有何关系？ NFT 是 2021 年以来市场开始关注到的、一类快速崛起的数字 藏品。NFT 与稳定币的关系，即"交易品"与"交易币种"之 间的关系，全球部分 NFT 的交易，是用稳定币来完成。 如香港通过的《稳定币条例草案》，作为监管框架，支付场景 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "Outperform the Market - A" for the building materials industry [4] Core Insights - The building materials industry is facing significant downward pressure due to a continued contraction in downstream demand, particularly in the real estate sector, leading to a substantial year-on-year decline in revenue and profit for 2024. However, there are signs of improvement in Q1 2025, with a notable recovery in profitability [1][19][20] Summary by Sections 1. Building Materials Industry Overview - In 2024, the building materials industry achieved revenue of 587.88 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 15.10%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 19.51 billion yuan, down 47.94% year-on-year. The decline in net profit was more pronounced than the revenue drop, primarily due to an increase in expense ratios and credit impairment losses [1][19] - The overall gross margin for the building materials sector in 2024 was 19.93%, a slight decrease of 0.03 percentage points year-on-year, while the expense ratio increased to 14.10%, up 1.87 percentage points year-on-year [1][28] 2. Consumer Building Materials - The consumer building materials segment experienced a revenue of 127.64 billion yuan in 2024, down 7.01% year-on-year, with a net profit of 4.89 billion yuan, a decline of 45.08%. The drop in net profit was greater than the revenue decline due to a decrease in gross margin and an increase in expense ratios [2][45] - In 2025 Q1, the consumer building materials sector showed signs of recovery, with a notable improvement in operating cash flow and gross margins for certain sub-segments, such as boards and coatings [2][12] 3. Fiberglass Sector - The fiberglass sector reported revenue of 55.60 billion yuan in 2024, a decrease of 2.06% year-on-year, with a net profit of 3.30 billion yuan, down 46.99%. However, the decline in profit was less severe than in previous years, indicating a gradual recovery [3][13] - In 2025 Q1, the fiberglass sector saw a revenue increase of 25.24% year-on-year, with net profit soaring by 165.66%, attributed to price adjustments and improved demand [9][12] 4. Cement Sector - The cement sector faced a revenue drop of 21.81% in 2024, totaling 308.27 billion yuan, with a net profit of 9.83 billion yuan, down 40.49%. However, by 2025 Q1, the sector's revenue decline narrowed to 6.93%, and net profit increased by 119.22% [10][14] - The gross margin for the cement sector improved in 2025 Q1, reaching 15.75%, an increase of 4.49 percentage points year-on-year [10][54] 5. Glass Sector - The glass sector's revenue in 2024 was 51.15 billion yuan, a decrease of 11.59%, with a net profit of 0.29 billion yuan, down 93.22%. The sector continued to struggle with high inventory levels and declining prices [11][12] - In 2025 Q1, the glass sector's revenue was 10.52 billion yuan, down 19.51% year-on-year, but net profit improved to 0.45 billion yuan, a decrease of 56.16% [11][12] 6. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on leading companies in the consumer building materials sector, which are expected to see improvements in demand and profitability. Key companies to watch include Sanhe Tree, Rabbit Baby, Weixing New Materials, Beixin Building Materials, and Oriental Yuhong [12][14] - For the fiberglass sector, the report highlights the potential for significant earnings growth in 2025, particularly for companies with overseas production lines [13][14] - In the cement sector, the report notes that prices are still at historical lows, but improvements in supply-side policies could alleviate industry supply-demand imbalances [14]

本周投资建议： 6 月 13 日，国务院常务会议召开，会议指出，构建房地产发展新模 式，对于促进房地产市场平稳、健康、高质量发展具有重要意义，要 着眼长远，坚持稳中求进、先立后破，有序搭建相关基础性制度；要 扎实有力推进"好房子"建设，纳入城市更新机制加强工作统筹，在规 划、土地、财政、金融等方面予以政策支持。要对全国房地产已供土 地和在建项目进行摸底，进一步优化现有政策，提升政策实施的系统 性有效性，多管齐下稳定预期，激活需求、优化供给、化解风险，更 大力度推动房地产市场止跌回稳。本次国常会对房地产行业持续释放 政策积极信号，提出要进一步优化现有政策，从稳定预期、激活需求、 优化供给等多管齐下，预计房地产市场有望在宽松政策基调下止跌回 稳，前端设计标的有望迎来基本面改善和估值提升，建议关注主业发 展稳健，同时布局新兴业务，有望创造新业绩增长点的标的华阳国际。 近日，发改委下达中央预算内投资城市更新专项 800 亿元，支持各地 城镇老旧小区改造、城市危旧房改造等项目建设，涉及居民户数约 550 万户、受益人数约 1700 万人。此前，围绕推进新型城镇化战略， 提升城市安全韧性水平，已通过"两重"建设安排 20 ...

重点监测 32 城合计成交总套数为 1.6 万套，环比上周增长 23.2%； 2025 年累计成交总套数为 36.5 万套，累计同比下降 3.4%。其中，一 线城市成交 4854 套，环比上周增长 29.6%，2025 年累计成交 10.5 万 套，累计同比增长13.2%；二线城市成交9134套，环比上周增长15.1%， 2025 年累计成交 21.6 万套，累计同比下降 9.8%；三线城市成交 1953 套，环比上周增长 55.5%，2025 年累计成交 4.4 万套，累计同比下降 3.5%。 2025 年 06 月 15 日 房地产 更大力度推动房地产市场止跌回稳 周观点：国常会强调进一步优化房地产政策 6 月 13 日，国常会召开，针对房地产行业，会议强调更大力度推动 房地产市场止跌回稳。相较于过往 2024 年 9 月政治局会议首次提出 "促进房地产市场止跌回稳"，到 2024 年 12 月中央经济工作会议强 调"持续用力推动房地产市场止跌回稳"，到本次强调"更大力度推 动房地产市场止跌回稳"，政策表述逐渐强化。 我们认为，6 月核心城市二手房销量增长放缓，部分区域新房开盘去 化分化加剧的背景下，调控 ...

2025 年 06 月 15 日 电子 台积电 5 月营收高增，存储芯片市场持 续升温 台积电发布 5 月经营快报，AI 需求强劲支撑长期增长 6 月 10 日，全球晶圆代工龙头台积电发布 2025 年 5 月营收报告，销 售额达 3205.2 亿新台币（约 107 亿美元），同比+39.6%，环比-8.3%； 1-5 月累计营收 1.51 万亿新台币，同比+42.6%。尽管短期出现季节 性调整，但市场需求依然保持强劲，主要受益于 AI 及及其他终端市 场的温和复苏。公司管理层在近期股东大会中预计，2025 年以美元 计价的营收增长率将维持在 20%左右，且利润将有望创下历史新高。 据 TrendForce 数据，台积电 25Q1 全球市场份额进一步提升至 67.6%， 继续巩固其行业龙头地位。 HBM 高景气+DDR4Q2 涨价，持续关注存储产业链 4 月 22 日以来，全球存储龙头之一的美光科技（MU.O）已累计上涨 65%。美光预计，其 HBM 的总潜在市场规模 2025 年将超 350 亿美元 （2024 年为 160 亿美元），预计 2028 年 640 亿美元，2030 年达 1000 亿美元。据 ...

本周上证指数跌 0.25%，沪深 300 跌 0.25%，恒生指数涨 0.42%。小盘股涨幅较 大，本周全 A 日均交易额 13716 亿，环比上周有所上升。在此，我们强调：6 月大 盘指数依然是在 407 黄金坑兑现后转入"震荡市"，临近震荡区间上沿就有回落压 力。中期来看，对于后续市场的三类预判：类比 2020 年（核心是由意外事件导致 中美欧政策步入同频共振政策周期，结构是以大盘成长为代表的核心资产占优）， 类比 2024 年（存在明确二次探底形成双底，结构是高股息为核心的杠铃策略）， 类比 2019 年（核心是新旧动能转换下大盘震荡呈现"俯卧撑"，结构上呈现消费+科 技"跷跷板"双轮动）。目前看"年初 AI 新科技 DeepSeek1.0"+"5 月军工科技 Deepseek2.0 时刻"+"创新药 Deepseek3.0 时刻"使得市场逐渐意识到"新胜于旧" 的定价思路，那么 A 股真有点像 2019 年了。 近期发生的一系列重大事件对于市场的影响值得探讨，总体而言虽然外部环境波谲 云诡，但对于 A 股资产定价并未造成明确"二次探底"风险。事实上，需明确：国内 5 月经济数据虽然显示内需孱弱，但在 ...

2025 年 06 月 15 日 调整或将以时间换空间的方式展开 本期要点：调整或将以时间换空间的方式展开 上周提到，我们虽然维持市场震荡偏强的判断，但将密切关注在前高 附近市场是否展现出有效突破的迹象；而如果一旦确认突破失败，那 么后续或将迎来真正的调整。实际上，我们的全天候定量择时模型上 周下半周发出了两次风险提示信号，未来市场或仍将承压。 整体来看，市场仍然处于一个大的箱体震荡格局。大盘已围绕该平台 震荡了近 3 个季度，而该震荡箱体的中枢位置或者说平均成本或在 3300-3350 左右。正如前期提到过的，市场当前整体处于大级别均线 系统的多头排列状态，如无意外因素出现，在多头排列过程中的震荡 往往可以看成是震荡蓄势的过程。因此，正常来看，市场整体的下行 空间或有限的。 但是，考虑到本轮调整出现在日线级别已经上行了三波之后，恰好处 于震荡中枢的上沿，而且出现了日线级别的顶背离以及日线 TD9 计 数，所以从纯技术的角度看应该看成是针对于 4 月初以来这一整波 上行趋势的调整。如果考虑常见的 0.382 时间回调比例特征，那么潜 在的调整时间或在 3 周左右。 也就是说，本轮调整或将以时间换空间的方式来展 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "Outperform-A" for the biopharmaceutical sector [6]. Core Insights - The biopharmaceutical sector is experiencing rapid growth, particularly with the inclusion of several innovative drugs into the national medical insurance directory, leading to increased hospital admissions [2][19]. - Notable increases in hospital admissions for specific drugs have been observed, such as the rapid uptake of drugs like Budesonide enteric-coated capsules and monoclonal antibodies from Kangfang Biotech [2][19]. - The report highlights significant clinical approvals and applications for new drugs, indicating a robust pipeline and ongoing innovation within the industry [3][4][23]. Summary by Sections 1. Weekly New Drug Market Review - From June 9 to June 13, 2025, the top five companies in the new drug sector by stock price increase were Beihai Kangcheng-B (up 118.12%), Oconview Biotech-B (up 28.59%), Junshengtai Pharmaceutical-B (up 23.75%), WuXi AppTec-B (up 23.63%), and Gilead Sciences-B (up 23.40%) [1][13]. - The top five companies with stock price declines included Sangamo Therapeutics (-7.41%), Nossland (-7.14%), Yiming Oncology-B (-6.10%), Hualing Pharmaceutical-B (-4.38%), and Yongtai Biotech-B (-3.48%) [1][13]. 2. Key Industry Analysis - The National Healthcare Security Administration updated the hospital admission data for innovative drugs included in the medical insurance directory as of April 2025, showing rapid hospital admissions for several newly included domestic innovative drugs [2][19]. - The drugs with the fastest growth in hospital admissions compared to March 2025 include Budesonide enteric-coated capsules, Kangfang Biotech's monoclonal antibodies, and others [2][19]. 3. New Drug Application Approvals & Acceptances - Two new drug or new indication applications were approved this week, including the inhalation solution of Revinase and the injection of Pembrolizumab [23][24]. - Nine new drug applications were accepted, including Bevacizumab intravitreal injection and various insulin formulations [23][24]. 4. New Drug Clinical Application Approvals & Acceptances - A total of 45 new drug clinical applications were approved this week, with six new drug clinical applications accepted [4]. 5. Domestic Market Key Events TOP3 - Lepu Biotech's new drug MRG007 was approved for clinical trials, targeting locally advanced or metastatic solid tumors [5]. - Nocera Biotech presented multiple drug research data at the European Hematology Association annual meeting, showing significant efficacy in treating various blood diseases [5][9]. 6. Overseas Market Key Events TOP3 - Bristol-Myers Squibb announced positive results for Deucravacitinib in a Phase III trial for psoriatic arthritis, significantly improving patient symptoms [10]. - Nuvation Bio's Ibtrozi received FDA approval for treating ROS1-positive non-small cell lung cancer, demonstrating high response rates and good tolerability [10]. - Merck's enlictide decanoate showed positive results in two Phase III trials, potentially becoming the first oral PCSK9 inhibitor approved in the U.S. [10].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "Outperform the Market - A" [6] Core Insights - Quantum technology is expected to bring disruptive innovations in computing power, driving demand for quantum secure communication and post-quantum cryptography [12] - Major advancements in quantum computing have been made by leading companies, indicating a competitive landscape in the industry [13][14] - The establishment of dedicated quantum research centers by companies like NVIDIA signifies a strategic shift towards integrating quantum computing with AI [15][16] Summary by Sections 1. Industry Insights - Quantum computing is based on quantum mechanics, utilizing quantum bits for processing, which offers unparalleled information capacity and parallel processing capabilities [12] - The emergence of quantum secure communication and post-quantum cryptography is a response to the potential threats posed by quantum computing to traditional encryption methods [12] 2. Chip Developments - Microsoft launched the Majorana 1 quantum chip, while Amazon introduced the Ocelot chip, which significantly reduces error correction overhead [13] - D-Wave's Advantage2™ system marks a pivotal shift from laboratory to enterprise-level applications, featuring over 4,400 qubits [13] - IBM's roadmap includes the release of a large-scale fault-tolerant quantum computer by 2029, expected to outperform current systems by 20,000 times [13] 3. Algorithmic Advancements - D-Wave demonstrated quantum superiority by solving a magnetic material simulation problem in 20 minutes, a task that would take traditional supercomputers nearly 1 million years [14] - Google's research indicates that a million noisy qubits could crack RSA-2048 encryption in a week, significantly shortening the traditional security period [14] 4. Industry Participation - NVIDIA's establishment of the Accelerated Quantum Research Center aims to integrate quantum hardware with AI supercomputing [15] - The CEO of NVIDIA has shifted his stance on quantum computing, predicting significant advancements in the coming years [16] 5. Market Performance - The computer industry index decreased by 2.25%, underperforming compared to major indices [17] - The report highlights the need to monitor long-term trends in AI, robotics, and self-controllable industries [21]