2025 年 05 月 05 日 医药 25Q1 医药板块分化明显，创新引领中 长期增长 医药行业整体业绩： （1）业绩方面：根据我们系统性优化过的国投证券医药板块分类， 2024 年度，医药板块整体营收同比下滑 1.73%，归母净利润同比 下滑 14.06%，扣非净利润同比下滑 14.86%；25Q1 单季度来看， 医药板块整体营收同比下滑 4.34%，归母净利润同比下滑 8.87%， 扣非净利润同比下滑 10.86%。 （2）估值方面：2024 年 9 月底以来，医药板块估值出现了一轮 较为显著的上行，目前 PE 中枢维持在 30 倍附近窄幅波动，虽然 较前期低点已实现显著修复，但整体仍处于历史偏低水平。 （3）基金持仓方面：2025Q1，全部公募基金对医药板块的持仓比 例为 9.05%，环比上升 0.47pct；剔除医药主题基金后的持仓比例 为 3.63%，环比上升 0.05pct；同期医药股在 A 股总市值中占比为 6.25%，环比上升 0.18pct；2025Q1 全部基金超配 2.80pct，非药 基金低配 2.62pct。 化学制剂： 2024 年化学制剂板块整体营收同比增长 1.97%，归 母 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Chengdu Bank is "Accumulate-A" with a 6-month target price of 18.87 CNY, compared to the current stock price of 16.98 CNY [4]. Core Views - Chengdu Bank has demonstrated robust growth in both revenue and profit, with a revenue growth rate of 5.89% for 2024 and a net profit growth rate of 10.17% for the same year. For Q1 2025, the revenue increased by 3.17% year-on-year, and net profit grew by 5.64% [1][9]. - The bank's performance is primarily driven by the expansion of interest-earning assets, although net interest margin compression has been a significant drag on growth [1][8]. - The bank's asset quality remains strong, with a non-performing loan ratio of 0.66% and a provision coverage ratio of 456% as of Q1 2025 [9][21]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Chengdu Bank's total assets grew by 14.56% year-on-year to reach a total of 285 billion CNY by the end of 2024, with a significant increase in loans by 18.76% [1][2]. - For Q1 2025, total assets increased by 13.25% year-on-year, with loans contributing significantly to this growth [1][2]. Loan Growth - Corporate loans showed steady growth, with balances increasing by 20.31% year-on-year by the end of 2024 and 17.69% by the end of Q1 2025 [2]. - Retail loans also performed well, with a year-on-year growth of 12.46% by the end of 2024 and 13.37% by the end of Q1 2025 [3]. Deposit Growth - Total deposits increased by 13.20% year-on-year by the end of 2024 and 15.40% by the end of Q1 2025, with retail deposits showing a significant rise [3][7]. Non-Interest Income - Non-interest income grew by 24.11% year-on-year in Q4 2024, primarily driven by investment income, while fee income saw a decline [9][21]. Asset Quality - The bank maintained a low non-performing loan ratio of 0.66% and a strong provision coverage ratio, indicating solid risk management [9][21]. Future Outlook - Chengdu Bank is expected to achieve a revenue growth of 8.17% and a profit growth of 9.25% in 2025, supported by its strong asset quality and robust loan growth strategy [9][10].

2025 年 05 月 05 日 邮储银行(601658.SH) 规模扩张平稳，负债成本占优——邮储银行 2025 年一季报点评 事件：邮储银行披露 2025 年一季度报告，2025 年一季度营收 同比下降 0.07%；拨备前利润同比增长 6.20%；归母净利润同比下 降 2.62%，我们点评如下： 从驱动因素来看，生息资产规模扩张和成本压降是业绩增长的 主要支撑，净息差收窄、拨备计提力度加大则拖累了业绩增长。 量：规模稳健扩张，对公信贷增速居于大行首位 ①资产端：2025 年一季度末，邮储银行总资产同比增长 8.31%，增速 保持平稳。其中贷款总额同比增长 9.78%，金融投资同比增长 9.45%， 同比增速高于总资产增速。从增量来看，全行资产总额单季度新增 6045 亿元，信贷总额单季度新增 4430 亿元，是最主要的增量来源。 一季度末，贷款净额占生息资产的比例环比提升 0.76pct 至 53.32%。 与此同时，邮储银行同业资产占总资产的比例环比升高 0.36pct 至 5.35%。后续随注资落地，邮储银行规模扩张基础将更加坚实。 对公贷款高速增长。2025 年一季度末，邮储银行一般公司贷款同比 增 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy-A" with a target price of 105.17 CNY, maintaining the rating [5]. Core Views - The company has demonstrated strong performance in its financial results, with a revenue of 2.548 billion CNY in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 32.63%. The net profit attributable to shareholders reached 683 million CNY, up 67.64% year-on-year [1]. - The company is actively advancing its independent brand strategy, with significant progress in the overseas market, particularly in the United States, where the "MOTOGallery" project has established over 500 store-in-store locations across 32 states [2]. - The company has successfully expanded its customer base, adding 96 new retail customers in 2024, all of which are U.S. retailers, enhancing its customer structure and channel resources [3]. Financial Performance - In 2024, the company's revenue from electric sofas was 1.955 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 37.13%, while electric beds generated 346 million CNY, up 20.45% [2]. - The gross profit margin for 2024 was 39.35%, an increase of 5.40 percentage points year-on-year, while the net profit margin was 26.80%, up 5.60 percentage points [11]. - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 5.0 CNY for every 10 shares and to increase capital by converting reserves into shares at a ratio of 3 shares for every 10 shares held [1]. Customer and Market Expansion - The company has seen a significant increase in procurement amounts from its top 10 customers, with nine out of ten reporting growth, and three customers exceeding 100% growth [3]. - As of Q1 2025, the company’s retail customers in the U.S. accounted for 88.19% of its total U.S. furniture customers, with sales to U.S. retailers contributing 64.75% of total revenue [10]. - The company’s retail channel layout in the U.S. has shown significant effectiveness, with a focus on large retailers driving steady growth [10]. Future Projections - The company is expected to achieve revenues of 3.162 billion CNY, 3.850 billion CNY, and 4.631 billion CNY for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 24.10%, 21.73%, and 20.29% [15]. - The projected net profits for the same years are 794 million CNY, 931 million CNY, and 1.107 billion CNY, with growth rates of 16.25%, 17.25%, and 18.90% [15].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy-A" with a six-month target price of 69.82 CNY [4][7]. Core Views - The company has shown consistent revenue growth, achieving 1.768 billion CNY in 2024, a 41.37% increase from 2023, and maintaining a global market share among the top three in conductive silicon carbide substrates [2][3]. - The company is increasing its R&D investment in large-size products, with R&D expenses rising to 0.45 billion CNY in Q1 2025 from 0.22 billion CNY in the same period last year [2]. - The demand for silicon carbide is expected to grow significantly due to its applications in AI data centers and emerging markets like AI glasses, with projections indicating a market size exceeding 800 billion CNY in AI data centers by 2030 [3]. Financial Summary - The company reported a revenue of 4.08 billion CNY in Q1 2025, a decrease of 4.25% year-on-year, and a net profit of 0.09 billion CNY, down 81.52% year-on-year [1]. - Forecasted revenues for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 2.502 billion CNY, 3.217 billion CNY, and 4.118 billion CNY respectively, with net profits expected to be 0.271 billion CNY, 0.415 billion CNY, and 0.549 billion CNY [4][8]. - The company’s market capitalization is approximately 24.96 billion CNY, with a circulating market value of about 17.45 billion CNY [4].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy-A" investment rating to the company, with a target price of HKD 45.45 for the next six months [4][6][18]. Core Insights - The company achieved a revenue of CNY 4.052 billion in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 90.80%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of CNY 1.070 billion, up 277.24% year-on-year [2][4]. - The growth is attributed to the continuous increase in ADC project numbers, the steady advancement of group projects to later stages, and improvements in operational efficiency [2][3]. - The company signed 53 new comprehensive projects in 2024, with an unfulfilled order amounting to USD 991 million, reflecting a 71% increase [3]. Revenue and Profit Forecast - The company is projected to achieve revenues of CNY 5.589 billion, CNY 7.433 billion, and CNY 9.515 billion for the years 2025 to 2027, with year-on-year growth rates of 37.93%, 32.98%, and 28.02% respectively [12][20]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be CNY 1.371 billion, CNY 1.696 billion, and CNY 2.076 billion for the same years, with growth rates of 28.09%, 23.76%, and 22.41% respectively [12][20]. Valuation Analysis - The report indicates that the company's current price-to-earnings (PE) ratio is 29.76, which is close to its historical average [14][18]. - The estimated earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is projected to be CNY 1.14, corresponding to a PE of 37 times [4][18]. - The report highlights that the company is well-positioned to benefit from the growing demand for ADC drug development and the high outsourcing rate in the industry [17].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy-A" with a 6-month target price of 42.88 CNY, compared to the current stock price of 36.50 CNY [4]. Core Insights - The company achieved a revenue of 2.513 billion CNY in 2024, marking a year-on-year growth of 33.13%, and recorded a net profit of 112 million CNY, indicating its first profitable year since listing [1][11]. - The core product, the recombinant factor VIII product Anjain®, saw stable sales with a revenue of 1.89 billion CNY in 2024, reflecting a growth of 6.18% despite price pressures from regional procurement [3][9]. - The company is actively expanding its overseas market presence, having signed agreements with partners in over ten "Belt and Road" countries and obtaining regulatory approvals for product launches in Pakistan and Indonesia [3][9]. Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the company reported a revenue of 520 million CNY, a decrease of 15.15% year-on-year, with a net profit of 64 million CNY, down 14.06% [1]. - The gross margin for 2024 was 95.91%, a slight decline of 1.20 percentage points, while the gross margin for the core product Anjain® was 96.89% [2]. - The company’s R&D expenses in 2024 were 911 million CNY, a decrease of 20.64%, primarily due to most products being in early clinical research stages [2][10]. Market Strategy - The company has implemented flexible market strategies to ensure compliance with procurement pricing and to expand market share for Anjain® [3]. - The sales of antibody drugs, including Anpingxi® and two biosimilars, exceeded 620 million CNY in 2024, showing a significant growth of 499.80% [9]. - The company is focusing on real-world studies to gather clinical data, enhancing treatment protocols and patient confidence [9]. Future Projections - Revenue growth is projected at 16.9%, 20.8%, and 16.4% for 2025 to 2027, with net profit growth expected at 86.1%, 114.0%, and 62.6% respectively [11][12].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate-A" with a target price of 68.33 CNY over the next six months [3][4]. Core Views - The company's performance in Q1 2025 was under pressure, with a revenue of 401 million CNY, a year-on-year decline of 46.76%, and a net loss of 53 million CNY. This decline is attributed to the vaccine segment facing market adjustments, government procurement, and the expansion of the nine-valent HPV vaccine age group, leading to lower-than-expected sales [1]. - The nine-valent HPV vaccine is in the listing application stage, with expectations for its contribution to future revenue. The clinical trials are progressing well, and commercial production conditions are ready. The company anticipates that the launch of this vaccine will help restore its operational performance [2]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2025, the company is projected to achieve revenues of 3.17 billion CNY, 11.4 billion CNY in 2026, and 28.63 billion CNY in 2027. Net profits are expected to be 350 million CNY, 2.13 billion CNY, and 6.01 billion CNY for the same years respectively [3][10]. - The company’s revenue growth rate is forecasted to be -50.7% in 2023, -59.3% in 2024, followed by a recovery to 41.0% in 2025, 259.9% in 2026, and 151.3% in 2027 [11]. Market Potential - The nine-valent HPV vaccine is expected to reach a peak sales value of 22.8 billion CNY, assuming a cumulative vaccination penetration rate of over 50% among eligible women. The estimated valuation of the company based on this product is 86.5 billion CNY, considering a 4x price-to-sales ratio and a 95% success rate for the product launch [3][10]. Stock Performance - As of April 30, 2025, the stock price was 65.41 CNY, with a 12-month price range of 63.3 to 83.8 CNY. The total market capitalization is approximately 82.75 billion CNY [4][5].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy-A" with a target price of 33.60 CNY, maintaining the rating [4][10]. Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 1.112 billion CNY in 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 20.35%, and a net profit of 172 million CNY, up 28.49% year-on-year [1]. - The growth in revenue and profit is attributed to the continuous release of production capacity and increased development of new products, which significantly boosted the demand for mask plates [2]. - The company is actively advancing the construction of its semiconductor factory in Foshan, which is expected to enhance production capacity [3]. Financial Performance Summary - In Q1 2025, the company reported a revenue of 299 million CNY, a year-on-year increase of 9.83%, and a net profit of 52 million CNY, up 4.34% year-on-year [1]. - The gross margin for 2024 improved to 29.65%, an increase of 2.03 percentage points year-on-year, driven by product structure optimization and increased revenue from high-end display products and semiconductor business [2]. - The company’s net profit margin for 2024 was 15.47%, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 0.98 percentage points [2]. Business Segment Performance - The flat panel display mask plate business generated a revenue of 859 million CNY in 2024, up 17.59% year-on-year, primarily due to increased orders for high-spec products from the Hefei subsidiary [3]. - The semiconductor chip mask plate business saw a revenue increase of 33.98% year-on-year, reaching 193 million CNY, benefiting from new capacity release and successful customer expansion [3]. - The Hefei subsidiary's revenue grew by 25.33% year-on-year, focusing on expanding the production capacity of mid-to-high-end flat panel display mask plates [9]. Future Projections - Revenue projections for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are estimated at 1.407 billion CNY, 1.752 billion CNY, and 2.142 billion CNY, respectively, with net profits expected to be 230 million CNY, 309 million CNY, and 398 million CNY [10][12].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy-A" with a 6-month target price of 29.30 CNY, compared to the closing price of 26.29 CNY on April 30, 2025 [4]. Core Views - The company experienced a significant decline in revenue and net profit in 2024, with total revenue of 8.017 billion CNY, down 16.96% year-on-year, and net profit of 2.532 billion CNY, down 10.32% year-on-year [1]. - Despite the decline in revenue, the net profit margin improved to 31.64% in 2024, an increase of 2.36 percentage points, attributed to effective control of selling expenses [2]. - The company has increased its cash dividend payout ratio significantly, proposing a cash dividend of 2.09 CNY per share, totaling approximately 19.22 billion CNY, which represents 75.93% of the net profit for 2024, up from 42.43% in 2023 [3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q4 2024, the company reported a revenue of 2.212 billion CNY, a decrease of 29.06% year-on-year, and a net profit of 629 million CNY, down 28.44% year-on-year [1]. - For Q1 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 1.525 billion CNY, a decline of 36.51% year-on-year, and a net profit of 440 million CNY, down 47.91% year-on-year [1]. Sales Breakdown - The sales revenue from the heat-clearing and detoxifying category was 2.688 billion CNY in 2024, down 20.45% year-on-year, primarily due to a high base effect from 2023 [2]. - Pediatric products generated sales of 2.254 billion CNY, down 17.78% year-on-year, also affected by a high base from the previous year [2]. - The digestive category saw sales of 1.155 billion CNY, a decrease of 31.52% year-on-year, influenced by centralized procurement factors [2]. Cash Flow and Dividends - The company reported a net operating cash flow of 2.176 billion CNY in 2024, with total cash reserves reaching 11.830 billion CNY by the end of 2024, an increase of 0.914 billion CNY year-on-year [3]. - The dividend payout ratio has increased significantly, indicating strong cash flow management and a commitment to returning value to shareholders [3]. Innovation and R&D - The company is focusing on innovation by increasing investment in new product development, with several new drugs receiving registration certificates and progressing through clinical trials [4]. - The company has established partnerships for the introduction of new products in various therapeutic areas, enhancing its long-term growth potential [4]. Future Projections - Revenue growth is projected to decline by 6.2% in 2025, followed by a recovery with growth rates of 7.4% and 6.8% in 2026 and 2027, respectively [8]. - Net profit growth is expected to decline by 11.1% in 2025, with subsequent recoveries of 10.5% and 10.0% in the following years [8].