Industry Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" and is maintained [2] Core Views - The report highlights the recent performance of precious metals, with gold rising by 1.24% and silver by 3.79% due to the easing of panic following weaker non-farm data [5] - Copper prices increased by 1.40% this week, benefiting from improved economic sentiment in the US [6] - The lithium market is experiencing a significant price surge due to potential supply constraints, with expectations of prices reaching 65,000 to 90,000 yuan per ton in the near future [7] - Cobalt prices are expected to rise as procurement of high-priced raw materials increases among manufacturers [8] - The rare earth market is showing signs of improvement, with exports increasing by 21.4% year-on-year in July [8] Summary by Sections Section 1: Market Performance - The non-ferrous metal sector saw a weekly increase of 5.24%, ranking third among sectors [17] - The top five stocks in the sector this week included Huaguang New Materials and Ningbo Yunsheng [18] Section 2: Prices - Basic metals saw price increases: LME copper up 1.40%, aluminum up 1.69%, zinc up 3.83%, lead up 1.49%, and tin up 1.17% [20] - Precious metals also saw gains: COMEX gold up 1.24% and silver up 3.79% [20] Section 3: Inventory - Global visible copper inventory increased by 19,482 tons, while aluminum inventory rose by 2,716 tons [33]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" and is maintained [2][38] Core Views - The agricultural sector has shown resilience, with the agricultural index rising by 2.52%, outperforming the broader market indices [12] - The pig price has reached a new low for the year, with the average price at 13.54 CNY/kg as of August 11, 2025, indicating a supply-demand imbalance [5][18] - The "anti-involution" policy is expected to support pig prices in the coming year, with significant supply pressures anticipated in the second half of 2025 [6][21] - The white feather chicken sector is experiencing a price increase for chicks due to supply constraints, with chick prices rising to 3.50 CNY per chick [31] Summary by Sections Market Review - The agricultural sector index outperformed the market, ranking 10th among 31 sectors [12] - The pig price has dropped below the breakeven point, reflecting strong supply and weak demand [18] Livestock Industry Tracking - **Pigs**: The average pig price is at a yearly low, with a significant supply pressure expected in the latter half of 2025 [5][18] - **White Feather Chicken**: Chick prices have increased due to supply shortages, with a notable decline in the number of breeding chicks updated in the first half of 2025 [31] Planting Industry Tracking - Sugar prices have continued to decline, while soybean prices have shown a slight increase [33]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Add" and it is maintained [2] Core Views - The company has released a positive profit forecast for the first half of 2025, with sales performance (including tax revenue) expected to be approximately RMB 138-143 billion, representing a year-on-year growth of 240%-252%. The net profit is projected to be between RMB 22.3-22.8 billion, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 279%-288% [4][5] - The company's revenue growth is attributed to the resonance of brand and product, with an expanding brand influence leading to overall revenue growth in both online and offline stores. Continuous product optimization and new iterations have also supported sustained revenue growth [5] - The company has successfully expanded its store network, with a new store opening in Shanghai on August 2, 2025, marking the fourth store in the city [4][5] Company Overview - The latest closing price is HKD 802.50, with a total market capitalization of HKD 1,385.73 billion. The company has a total share capital of 1.73 billion shares and an asset-liability ratio of 38.13% [3] - The company is positioned as a high-end brand focusing on "ancient method gold," aiming to establish itself as a global luxury jewelry brand [11] Financial Performance - The company is expected to achieve a revenue growth rate of 138% in 2025, with net profit growth projected at 179.54%. The earnings per share (EPS) are forecasted to be RMB 23.85 for 2025 [13][11] - The company has a projected net profit margin of 18.41% for the first half of 2025, an increase from 16.7% in the first half of 2024 [5] Industry Analysis - The report anticipates that gold prices will continue to rise, with expectations for London gold prices to exceed USD 3,500 in the medium term [6] - The company is leveraging Chinese cultural elements in its product design, with nearly 2,000 original designs and a significant number of patents and copyrights [10]

Industry Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" [1] Core Viewpoints - Recent policy adjustments in Beijing, such as the removal of purchase limits for eligible families outside the Fifth Ring Road, are expected to lead to a temporary increase in transaction volumes, further stabilizing the market [1] - The cumulative new housing transaction area in 30 major cities has reached 54.92 million square meters this year, with a year-on-year decrease of 4.2% [2][11] - The average transaction area for new homes in first-tier cities has decreased by 23.2% year-on-year, while second-tier cities have seen a 10.4% decline [2][11] Summary by Sections 1. Industry Fundamentals Tracking - New housing transaction area in 30 major cities last week was 1.22 million square meters, with a cumulative area of 54.92 million square meters this year, down 4.2% year-on-year [2][11] - The average transaction area for new homes in first-tier cities was 0.41 million square meters, down 23.2% year-on-year, while second-tier cities recorded 0.69 million square meters, down 10.4% [2][11] - The available residential area in 14 cities was 79.96 million square meters, down 9.93% year-on-year, with a de-stocking cycle of 17.37 months [14] 2. Market Review - The A-share real estate index rose by 2.16% last week, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 0.93 percentage points [4][27] - The Hong Kong property service and management index also increased by 2.16%, outperforming the Hang Seng Composite Index [4][27] - In the A-share market, real estate ranked 16th among 31 first-level industries last week [28]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report In July, the CPI turned from flat to rising month - on - month, mainly due to higher service prices during the summer travel season, rising international oil and gold prices, and increased demand driven by replacement policies. The PPI's month - on - month decline narrowed, and its year - on - year growth stopped falling. Overall, with policy promotion and external factors, prices improved marginally in July. However, the price improvement in the upstream of the industrial chain was significantly better than that in the mid - and downstream. Mid - and downstream enterprises' price increases were restricted by insufficient effective demand. Anti - involution policies cannot boost prices overnight, and "stabilizing prices, reducing production capacity, and increasing demand" need to be coordinated. In the short term, with the continuous implementation of replacement and anti - involution policies, domestic prices are expected to recover steadily [3][35]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Service and Industrial Consumer Goods Prices Rise, CPI Month - on - Month Exceeds Seasonal Improvement - The CPI was flat year - on - year, rising 0.4% month - on - month after a 0.1% decline last month. Its month - on - month growth was better than the seasonal average [11]. - The month - on - month increase in CPI beyond the seasonal level was mainly driven by rising service and industrial consumer goods prices. During the summer travel season, service prices rose 0.6% month - on - month, contributing about 0.26 pct to the CPI increase. International oil price hikes and replacement policies led to a 0.5% month - on - month increase in industrial consumer goods prices, contributing about 0.17 pct to the CPI increase [11]. - The carry - over effect turned negative, and the negative impact on the CPI year - on - year reading from the carry - over effect will expand from August to September [12]. - The year - on - year increase in the core CPI has been expanding for three consecutive months, with the highest month - on - month increase this year, mainly affected by rising prices of gold and platinum jewelry and services [14]. - Among the eight major categories, service - related items such as transportation, communication, education, culture, entertainment, and other supplies and services had relatively large month - on - month increases, while food and tobacco decreased both month - on - month and year - on - year [16]. - Food prices declined more than the seasonal average, dragging the CPI from rising to flat. In July, food prices fell 0.2% month - on - month, and the year - on - year decline widened, mainly due to high base prices last year [17]. - Non - food prices rose more than the seasonal average, supported by the summer travel season, rising international oil prices, and policies to boost domestic demand, which was the main factor for the CPI to turn from decline to increase month - on - month [20]. 2. Raw Material and Energy Mining and Processing Prices Improve, PPI Month - on - Month Decline Narrows - The PPI was flat year - on - year, and its month - on - month decline narrowed. In July, the PPI decreased 3.6% year - on - year, with the same decline as last month, and 0.2% month - on - month, with a 0.2 pct narrower decline than last month [25]. - The negative impact of the carry - over effect on the PPI weakened. In August, the PPI carry - over factor rose to - 0.7%, and from September to December, it will be in the range of 0 to - 0.1%. With the continuous release of policies to expand domestic demand and combat involution, the year - on - year decline in PPI may narrow significantly [27]. - The month - on - month decline in production material prices narrowed, while the decline in consumer goods prices widened [28]. - By industry, industries such as oil and gas extraction, fuel processing, and non - ferrous metal mining and processing had relatively large month - on - month increases, while industries such as coal, ferrous metal ore, and non - metallic mineral mining had relatively large month - on - month decreases. Overall, industrial product prices in most industries still declined, but some upstream industries showed obvious improvements [30]. - The decline in the PPI - CPI gap narrowed, but mid - and downstream industrial enterprises still faced significant pressure, mainly due to rising upstream prices, falling or stagnant downstream prices, and insufficient endogenous consumer demand [34]. 3. Conclusion: Positive Signals in July's Prices In July, the CPI turned from flat to rising month - on - month, and the PPI's month - on - month decline narrowed. Overall, prices improved marginally in July. However, the price improvement in the upstream was better than that in the mid - and downstream. Anti - involution policies need to be coordinated with "stabilizing prices, reducing production capacity, and increasing demand." In the short term, domestic prices are expected to recover steadily with continuous policy implementation [35].

Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the computer industry is "Outperform the Market" and is maintained [1] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights the strong demand for AI computing power, driven by increased capital expenditures from major tech companies such as Alphabet, Microsoft, and Meta, indicating a robust growth trajectory for the industry [6] - The release of GPT-5 by OpenAI is expected to accelerate the commercialization of AI applications, enhancing capabilities in various sectors including software development, writing, and financial analysis [5] - The performance of overseas AI application companies has exceeded expectations, suggesting a rapid acceleration in AI commercialization [7][8] Summary by Relevant Sections Industry Basic Situation - The closing index for the computer industry is 4993.28, with a 52-week high of 5440.49 and a low of 2805.53 [1] Relative Index Performance - The relative performance of the computer industry against the CSI 300 index shows a significant upward trend, with a 40% increase observed by August 2025 [3] Recent Developments - Major tech companies have significantly increased their capital expenditures, with Alphabet raising its 2025 capital expenditure guidance from $75 billion to $85 billion, primarily for GPU/TPU servers and data center expansions [6] - Microsoft's Azure cloud service revenue grew by 39% year-on-year, reflecting strong demand for AI and cloud services [6] - Palantir's revenue reached $1 billion, a 48% increase year-on-year, driven by surging AI demand [8]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and it is maintained [1] Core Views - The company reported its 2025 mid-year results with revenue, net profit attributable to shareholders, and net profit excluding non-recurring items at 8.558 billion, 1.103 billion, and 1.036 billion yuan respectively, showing year-on-year growth of 6.37%, 45.45%, and 39.91% [4] - The company’s gross margin and net profit margin for the first half of 2025 were 45.50% and 12.89%, reflecting year-on-year increases of 2.14 and 3.46 percentage points [4] - The sales expense ratio, management expense ratio, and R&D expense ratio were 10.33%, 10.35%, and 1.56%, showing year-on-year changes of -0.54, -1.06, and -0.1 percentage points respectively [4] - The company’s beer sales volume reached 2.3517 million tons in the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 2.03%, with an average price of 3,639 yuan per ton, up 4.25% year-on-year [4] Financial Performance - The company achieved revenue of 4.731 billion, net profit attributable to shareholders of 938 million, and net profit excluding non-recurring items of 883 million yuan in Q2 2025, with year-on-year growth of 6.11%, 43.00%, and 38.43% respectively [5] - The gross margin and net profit margin for Q2 2025 were 47.70% and 19.82%, with year-on-year changes of -0.63 and +5.11 percentage points [5] - The company’s beer sales volume in Q2 2025 was 1.3567 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 1.47%, with an average price of 3,487 yuan per ton, up 4.57% year-on-year [5] Market Strategy - The company is implementing a "full-channel integration + regional deep cultivation" strategy to activate market growth potential [6] - The company is focusing on a large product marketing strategy, creating a product matrix that includes high-end, mid-range, and regional specialty products [5][6] - The company is also promoting a "beer + beverage" combination marketing strategy to diversify its offerings [5] Earnings Forecast and Investment Recommendations - The earnings forecast for the company has been slightly increased, with projected revenues of 15.573 billion, 16.427 billion, and 17.235 billion yuan for 2025-2027, representing year-on-year growth of 6.17%, 5.48%, and 4.92% respectively [8] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be 1.511 billion, 1.818 billion, and 2.053 billion yuan for 2025-2027, with year-on-year growth of 43.14%, 20.34%, and 12.89% respectively [8] - The corresponding EPS for the years 2025-2027 is projected to be 0.54, 0.65, and 0.73 yuan, with a current PE ratio of 24, 20, and 18 times [8]

Report Information - Report Type: Fixed Income Report - Release Date: August 11, 2025 - Analysts: Liang Weichao, Cui Chao [2] Investment Rating - The provided content does not mention the industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints - High - frequency economic data shows that the production end has differentiated heat, with the steel industry chain warming up, while asphalt and tire operating rates declining. The transaction area of commercial housing is rising slightly, and prices are showing a differentiated trend with falling crude oil prices and rising prices of coking coal, non - ferrous metals, rebar, and agricultural products. The domestic SCFI and CCFI shipping indices are continuously falling, while the BDI is slightly rising. Short - term focus should be on the implementation of new round of growth - stabilizing stimulus policies, the recovery of the real estate market, and the impact of international geopolitical changes [2][33] Summary by Directory 1. Production - Steel Industry Chain: The utilization rate of coke oven capacity increased by 0.27 pct, the blast furnace operating rate increased by 0.29 pct, and rebar production increased by 10.12 tons in the week of August 8. The inventory of rebar also increased by 6.05 tons [2][9] - Petroleum Asphalt: The operating rate decreased by 1.4 pct in the week of August 6 [9] - Chemical Industry: The PX operating rate remained flat compared with the previous week, while the PTA operating rate increased by 2.0 pct on August 7 [9] - Automobile Tires: The operating rate of all - steel tires decreased by 0.08 pct, and that of semi - steel tires decreased by 0.1 pct in the week of August 7 [10] 2. Demand - Real Estate: In the week of August 3, the transaction area of commercial housing in 30 large and medium - sized cities increased by 21.81 square meters, the inventory - to - sales ratio of commercial housing in 10 large cities decreased by 14.75, the land supply area in 100 large and medium - sized cities increased by 127.18 square meters, and the transaction premium rate of residential land decreased by 6.33% [14] - Movie Box Office: In the week of August 3, the total national movie box office revenue increased by 562 million yuan compared with the previous week [14] - Automobile: In the week of July 31, the average daily retail sales of automobile manufacturers increased by 31,000 vehicles, and the average daily wholesale sales increased by 94,000 vehicles [18] - Shipping Index: In the week of August 8, the SCFI decreased by 3.94%, the CCFI decreased by 2.56%, and the BDI increased by 1.64% [3][21] 3. Prices - Energy: The price of Brent crude oil decreased by 4.65% to $66.43 per barrel in the week of August 7. The futures price of coking coal increased by 9.37% to 1,219.5 yuan per ton in the week of August 8 [23] - Metals: The futures prices of LME copper, aluminum, and zinc increased by 1.40%, 1.69%, and 3.83% respectively, and the domestic rebar futures price increased by 0.06% on August 8 [24] - Agricultural Products: The overall price of agricultural products rebounded, with the 200 - index of agricultural product wholesale prices rising by 0.75%. The prices of pork, eggs, vegetables, and fruits changed by - 0.92%, - 2.72%, + 4.74%, and - 0.71% respectively compared with the previous week on August 8 [25][27] 4. Logistics - Subway Passenger Volume: The seven - day moving average of subway passenger volume in Beijing and Shanghai increased by 281,600 and 672,900 person - times respectively in the week of August 7 [29] - Flight Volume: The seven - day moving average of domestic (excluding Hong Kong, Macao, and Taiwan) flight volume decreased by 2.29 flights, that of domestic (Hong Kong, Macao, and Taiwan) increased by 7.29 flights, and that of international flights increased by 11.86 flights in the week of August 7 [30] - Urban Traffic: The seven - day moving average of the peak congestion index in first - tier cities decreased by 0.01 to 1.66 on August 8 [30] 5. Summary - The steel industry chain is warming up, and the price of crude oil is falling. Short - term focus should be on the implementation of new round of growth - stabilizing stimulus policies, the recovery of the real estate market, and the impact of international geopolitical changes [33]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The mid - term top of the 10 - year Treasury bond at 1.75% may be challenged but remains relatively reliable. After returning to the narrow fluctuation range, the 1.65% fluctuation center position is still valid. The view that "the winning probability of the long - end yield decline has not substantially decreased, and the odds have increased during the adjustment" is maintained. In the second half of the year, with the reduction of government bond issuance after August, the re - brewing of policy rate cuts, and the realization of fundamental pressure, there is still a possibility of opening up the downward space for interest rates [2][10]. - Most institutions have a "short - term bearish, long - term bullish" expectation for the bond market, but there are differences in the specific short - term trends. The demand - side policy pattern remains unchanged, and most institutions' expectations of "high in the front and low in the back" for the fundamentals, the judgment of the upcoming reduction of supply pressure, and the long - term bullish view on the bond market remain unchanged. However, the bond market has short - term concerns, and institutions do not have high expectations for the downward space of yields [2][11]. - The marginal improvement of inflation seems imminent, but it still takes time to reverse the trend. The PPI in July may not fully reflect the impact of the increase in commodity prices. There may be more support for prices in August, but the inflation data in August is crucial [3][12]. - The impact of tax policy changes is still being implemented. The new - old bond spread of 10 - year local bonds is about 6BP, and the issuance of 3 - year Treasury new bonds is the first observation window for the new - old bond spread [3][14]. - Liquidity is loose, which is the moat of the current bond market. Monetary policy operations may bring "surprises". The market has a neutral expectation of the current monetary policy easing, and in the context of low market expectations and trading sentiment, there is a higher possibility of "surprises" in monetary policy operations [3][17]. - The existence of expected differences is the best time for trading desks to layout. In the context of low yields and low volatility, it is difficult to operate the market following the trend. The short - term expected differences are a suitable layout opportunity [4][19]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Expected Differences are Layout Opportunities - The 10 - year Treasury bond's 1.75% top is a signal that interest rates may break through the low - volatility range. The market's short - term expected differences are a good time to layout bond market investments [4][19]. - The inflation improvement in August is crucial. The PPI in July may not fully reflect the impact of commodity price increases, and 8 - month inflation data can verify the improvement of prices [3][12]. - The impact of tax policy changes continues. The new - old bond spread of 10 - year local bonds is about 6BP, and the 3 - year Treasury new bond issuance is an important observation window [3][14]. - Liquidity is loose, and monetary policy operations may bring "surprises". The market has a neutral expectation of monetary policy easing, and the central bank's operations are more likely to exceed expectations [3][17].

- Model Name: Diffusion Index Model; Model Construction Idea: The model is based on the principle of price momentum; Model Construction Process: The model tracks the weekly and monthly changes in the diffusion index of various industries, ranking them accordingly. The formula used is $ \text{Diffusion Index} = \frac{\text{Number of Upward Trends}}{\text{Total Number of Trends}} $; Model Evaluation: The model has shown varying performance over the years, with significant returns in some periods and notable drawdowns in others[27][28][31] - Model Name: GRU Factor Model; Model Construction Idea: The model utilizes GRU deep learning networks to analyze minute-level volume and price data; Model Construction Process: The model ranks industries based on GRU factors, which are derived from deep learning algorithms processing historical trading data. The formula used is $ \text{GRU Factor} = \text{GRU Network Output} $; Model Evaluation: The model performs well in short cycles but has mixed results in longer cycles[33][34][36] - Diffusion Index Model, Average Weekly Return: 2.06%, Excess Return: -0.00%, August Excess Return: -0.45%, Year-to-Date Excess Return: -0.41%[31] - GRU Factor Model, Average Weekly Return: 2.71%, Excess Return: 0.65%, August Excess Return: 0.32%, Year-to-Date Excess Return: -4.35%[36] - Factor Name: GRU Industry Factor; Factor Construction Idea: The factor is derived from GRU deep learning networks analyzing minute-level trading data; Factor Construction Process: The factor ranks industries based on GRU network outputs, which are calculated from historical volume and price data. The formula used is $ \text{GRU Factor} = \text{GRU Network Output} $; Factor Evaluation: The factor has shown significant changes in rankings, indicating its sensitivity to market conditions[6][14][34] - GRU Industry Factor, Steel: 2.82, Building Materials: 1.72, Transportation: 1.3, Oil & Petrochemicals: 0.27, Construction: -0.46, Comprehensive: -1.87[6][14][34]