- Model Name: Diffusion Index Model; Model Construction Idea: The model is based on the principle of price momentum; Model Construction Process: The model tracks the weekly and monthly changes in the diffusion index of various industries, ranking them accordingly. The formula used is $ \text{Diffusion Index} = \frac{\text{Number of Upward Trends}}{\text{Total Number of Trends}} $; Model Evaluation: The model has shown varying performance over the years, with significant returns in some periods and notable drawdowns in others[27][28][31] - Model Name: GRU Factor Model; Model Construction Idea: The model utilizes GRU deep learning networks to analyze minute-level volume and price data; Model Construction Process: The model ranks industries based on GRU factors, which are derived from deep learning algorithms processing historical trading data. The formula used is $ \text{GRU Factor} = \text{GRU Network Output} $; Model Evaluation: The model performs well in short cycles but has mixed results in longer cycles[33][34][36] - Diffusion Index Model, Average Weekly Return: 2.06%, Excess Return: -0.00%, August Excess Return: -0.45%, Year-to-Date Excess Return: -0.41%[31] - GRU Factor Model, Average Weekly Return: 2.71%, Excess Return: 0.65%, August Excess Return: 0.32%, Year-to-Date Excess Return: -4.35%[36] - Factor Name: GRU Industry Factor; Factor Construction Idea: The factor is derived from GRU deep learning networks analyzing minute-level trading data; Factor Construction Process: The factor ranks industries based on GRU network outputs, which are calculated from historical volume and price data. The formula used is $ \text{GRU Factor} = \text{GRU Network Output} $; Factor Evaluation: The factor has shown significant changes in rankings, indicating its sensitivity to market conditions[6][14][34] - GRU Industry Factor, Steel: 2.82, Building Materials: 1.72, Transportation: 1.3, Oil & Petrochemicals: 0.27, Construction: -0.46, Comprehensive: -1.87[6][14][34]

证券研究报告 石化行业周报：OPEC+增产策略延续，石化板 块相对表现偏弱 行业投资评级：强大于市|维持 中邮证券研究所石化团队 分析师:张津圣 SAC 登记编号:S1340524040005 1 1 发布时间：2025-08-11 投资要点 请参阅附注免责声明 2 请参阅附注免责声明 3 ◼ 本周申万一级行业指数表现中，石油石化指数相对较弱，报收2283.38点，较上周上涨0.91%。 ◼ 而中信三级行业指数表现来看，本周油田服务在石油石化中表现最佳，涨幅5.86%。 1 原油—— ◆ 能源价格下行 ◆ 美原油库存上涨，美成品油库存表现分化 4 ◼ 焦点：OPEC+9月增产54.7万桶/日，能源价格下行，石化板块表现相对弱势。持续关注反内卷进展， 石化行业中老旧装置淘汰退出和更新改造的进展。 ◼ 回顾：本周申万一级行业指数表现中，石油石化指数相对较弱，报收2283.38点，较上周上涨0.91%。 而中信三级行业指数表现来看，本周油田服务在石油石化中表现最佳，涨幅5.86%。 ◼ 原油：能源价格下行。美原油库存上涨，美成品油库存表现分化 ◼ 聚酯：涤纶长丝价格稳中有跌，价差下跌。江浙织机涤纶长丝库存天数上涨， ...

Quantitative Models and Construction Methods 1. Model Name: Diffusion Index Model - **Model Construction Idea**: The model is used to monitor the critical points of trend changes in the micro-cap stock index by analyzing the distribution of stock price movements over a specific time window[6][38]. - **Model Construction Process**: The model calculates the diffusion index based on the relative price changes of all constituent stocks in the micro-cap stock index over a given time window. For example, if the horizontal axis is 0.95 and the vertical axis is 15 days, the value of 0.51 indicates that after 5 days (review period from T=20 to T=15), if all stocks in the micro-cap index drop by 5%, the diffusion index value is 0.51[38]. - Current diffusion index value: 0.87 (horizontal axis = 20, vertical axis = 1.00)[38]. - **Model Evaluation**: The model shows that the current distribution is relatively uniform, indicating that the time window has little impact, and the main influence comes from the spatial distribution[38]. 2. Model Name: First Threshold Method (Left-Side Trading) - **Model Construction Idea**: This method triggers a sell signal when the diffusion index reaches a predefined threshold[6][42]. - **Model Construction Process**: - On May 8, 2025, the model triggered a sell signal when the diffusion index reached 0.9850[42]. 3. Model Name: Delayed Threshold Method (Right-Side Trading) - **Model Construction Idea**: Similar to the first threshold method but with a delayed response to confirm the trend[6][44]. - **Model Construction Process**: - On May 15, 2025, the model triggered a sell signal when the diffusion index reached 0.8975[46]. 4. Model Name: Dual Moving Average Method (Adaptive Trading) - **Model Construction Idea**: This method uses two moving averages to adaptively identify trading signals based on the diffusion index[6][47]. - **Model Construction Process**: - On August 4, 2025, the model issued a sell signal based on the dual moving average strategy[47]. --- Model Backtesting Results 1. Diffusion Index Model - Current diffusion index value: 0.87[38]. 2. First Threshold Method - Triggered sell signal at diffusion index value: 0.9850[42]. 3. Delayed Threshold Method - Triggered sell signal at diffusion index value: 0.8975[46]. 4. Dual Moving Average Method - Triggered sell signal on August 4, 2025[47]. --- Quantitative Factors and Construction Methods 1. Factor Name: Momentum Factor - **Factor Construction Idea**: Measures the tendency of stocks to continue their past performance[5][33]. - **Factor Construction Process**: - Weekly rank IC: 0.224 - Historical average rank IC: -0.005[5][33]. 2. Factor Name: Beta Factor - **Factor Construction Idea**: Captures the sensitivity of stock returns to market movements[5][33]. - **Factor Construction Process**: - Weekly rank IC: 0.146 - Historical average rank IC: 0.006[5][33]. 3. Factor Name: Illiquidity Factor - **Factor Construction Idea**: Measures the impact of trading volume on stock price changes[5][33]. - **Factor Construction Process**: - Weekly rank IC: 0.14 - Historical average rank IC: 0.041[5][33]. 4. Factor Name: Unadjusted Stock Price Factor - **Factor Construction Idea**: Reflects the raw stock price without adjustments for splits or dividends[5][33]. - **Factor Construction Process**: - Weekly rank IC: 0.131 - Historical average rank IC: -0.015[5][33]. 5. Factor Name: PE_TTM Reciprocal Factor - **Factor Construction Idea**: Represents the inverse of the price-to-earnings ratio based on trailing twelve months[5][33]. - **Factor Construction Process**: - Weekly rank IC: 0.125 - Historical average rank IC: 0.017[5][33]. --- Factor Backtesting Results 1. Momentum Factor - Weekly rank IC: 0.224 - Historical average rank IC: -0.005[5][33]. 2. Beta Factor - Weekly rank IC: 0.146 - Historical average rank IC: 0.006[5][33]. 3. Illiquidity Factor - Weekly rank IC: 0.14 - Historical average rank IC: 0.041[5][33]. 4. Unadjusted Stock Price Factor - Weekly rank IC: 0.131 - Historical average rank IC: -0.015[5][33]. 5. PE_TTM Reciprocal Factor - Weekly rank IC: 0.125 - Historical average rank IC: 0.017[5][33].

- The report tracks the performance of style factors, including momentum, beta, and liquidity factors, which showed strong long positions, while leverage, market capitalization, and valuation factors exhibited strong short positions[3][16] - The report includes the performance of fundamental factors across different stock pools, such as the CSI 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000, highlighting that low valuation and high growth stocks were generally strong[5][6][7][20][22][25] - Technical factors' performance was mostly positive, with high volatility and long-term momentum stocks performing well, except for the 20-day momentum factor which showed negative performance[4][18][23][26] - The GRU factors' performance was weak overall, with the close1d model showing strong performance, while other models like open1d and barra1d experienced drawdowns[4][5][6][7][18][20][23][26] - The report details the construction and recent performance of the GRU long-only portfolios, noting that the barra1d model outperformed the CSI 1000 index by 0.38%, while the open1d and close1d models underperformed by 0.40%-0.53%[8][31][32] Factor Construction and Performance - **Barra Style Factors**: The report lists several style factors such as Beta, Market Cap, Momentum, Volatility, Non-linear Size, Valuation, Liquidity, Profitability, Growth, and Leverage, with detailed formulas for each[14][15] - **Fundamental Factors**: The report tracks various fundamental factors, including unexpected growth and growth-related financial factors, with mixed performance across different stock pools[4][5][6][7][18][20][22][25] - **Technical Factors**: The report includes several technical factors, such as 20-day momentum, 60-day momentum, 120-day momentum, and various volatility measures, with detailed performance metrics[4][18][23][26] Factor Performance Metrics - **Fundamental Factors**: - Operating Turnover: -1.14% (1 week), 4.19% (1 month), -11.23% (6 months), -11.52% (YTD), -1.86% (3-year annualized), 3.31% (5-year annualized)[19] - ROC: -0.68% (1 week), 0.89% (1 month), -10.51% (6 months), -10.59% (YTD), -13.06% (3-year annualized), -11.85% (5-year annualized)[19] - ROE Growth: 0.36% (1 week), 2.01% (1 month), 10.43% (6 months), 2.27% (YTD), 0.38% (3-year annualized), 2.61% (5-year annualized)[19] - **Technical Factors**: - 20-day Momentum: -0.73% (1 week), 0.66% (1 month), -8.17% (6 months), -12.18% (YTD), -13.19% (3-year annualized), -13.77% (5-year annualized)[19] - Median Deviation: -0.38% (1 week), -3.25% (1 month), -5.83% (6 months), -4.72% (YTD), -15.12% (3-year annualized), -15.62% (5-year annualized)[19] - 60-day Momentum: 0.35% (1 week), -3.31% (1 month), 2.64% (6 months), 5.08% (YTD), -12.82% (3-year annualized), -16.17% (5-year annualized)[19] GRU Model Performance - **GRU Long-Only Portfolios**: - open1d: -0.40% (1 week), -0.20% (1 month), 2.37% (3 months), 6.32% (6 months), 7.16% (YTD)[32] - close1d: -0.53% (1 week), -0.83% (1 month), 4.38% (3 months), 6.80% (6 months), 6.59% (YTD)[32] - barra1d: 0.38% (1 week), -0.25% (1 month), 0.85% (3 months), 2.85% (6 months), 3.78% (YTD)[32] - barra5d: 0.00% (1 week), -0.36% (1 month), 3.59% (3 months), 7.41% (6 months), 8.37% (YTD)[32] - Multi-Factor: -0.38% (1 week), -0.30% (1 month), 1.62% (3 months), 2.54% (6 months), 2.54% (YTD)[32]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" and is maintained [2] Core Views - The establishment of the New Tibet Railway Company with a registered capital of 95 billion yuan is a significant development, enhancing connectivity between Xinjiang and Tibet, which is expected to benefit regional construction companies [4][5] - The cement industry is anticipated to see a recovery in demand and price increases starting in August, following a period of low demand and pricing pressure [5][11] - The glass industry continues to face supply-demand imbalances, with prices declining due to limited downstream demand, despite some companies meeting environmental standards [5][16] - The fiberglass sector is experiencing growth driven by demand from the AI industry, with expectations for continued price and volume increases [6] - The consumer building materials sector is showing signs of profitability improvement, with companies actively raising prices across various product categories [8] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The closing index for the construction materials sector is at 4949.67, with a 52-week high of 5128.73 and a low of 3435.69 [2] Recent Developments - The New Tibet Railway Company has been established, which is crucial for enhancing economic and cultural exchanges between Xinjiang and Tibet [4][5] - The cement industry is currently in a low-demand season, but a rebound is expected in August, leading to potential price increases [5][11] Market Performance - The construction materials sector index increased by 1.19% over the past week, while the broader market indices showed higher gains [9] Key Announcements - Tower Group reported a significant increase in revenue and net profit for the first half of 2025, indicating strong performance in the sector [19]

Market Performance Review - The A-share market experienced a volatile upward trend, reaching new highs, with the CSI 1000 index rising by 2.11%, outperforming other major indices such as the CSI A50 and ChiNext, which increased by 0.64% and 0.49% respectively [12][13] - There was a significant reversal in market style, with cyclical stocks rebounding strongly while the previously resilient consumer style lagged behind [12][13] - All market capitalization styles saw gains, with mid-cap and small-cap indices performing notably better than large-cap indices [12][13] - The performance of core assets and leading growth stocks showed divergence, with the "Ning" combination slightly increasing by 0.07% and the "Mao" index rising by 0.89% [12][13] Industry Analysis - The market's upward movement was primarily driven by event-driven thematic trading, with the defense and military industry leading with a 5.93% increase, followed by significant gains in non-ferrous metals and machinery [4][13] - The defense sector's rise was fueled by China Shipbuilding's announcement on August 5 regarding a stock swap merger with China State Shipbuilding Corporation, which sparked expectations of large-scale restructuring among military-listed companies [4][13] - The only sectors that saw declines were pharmaceuticals, computers, retail, and social services [4][13] Future Outlook and Investment Views - The report emphasizes the importance of both rhythm and direction during the current gap between policy and performance, noting that the recent Central Political Bureau meeting did not indicate large-scale stimulus plans, and the focus will shift more towards demand recovery rather than supply-side reductions [29][30] - The current market rally, which began at the end of June, can be understood as a two-phase structure driven by bank dividends and the transition from "anti-involution" themes, but the potential for further gains may be limited as the appeal of bank dividends diminishes [29][30] - The report suggests a return to growth trading, with individual stock alpha logic taking precedence over industry beta logic, highlighting opportunities for valuation recovery in technology growth sectors such as AI applications, computing power chains, and optical modules [30]

Industry Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" and is maintained [2] Core Viewpoints - The National Healthcare Security Administration (NHSA) has held five meetings on "Medicare Support for Innovative Drugs and Devices," emphasizing a complete chain of support from research and development to access and payment for innovative products [6][17] - The NHSA's clear stance against "pseudo-innovation" and "involution-style innovation" is expected to accelerate the global presence of Chinese innovative drugs and devices, benefiting patients [6][17] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The closing index is at 8759.57, with a weekly high of 8891.5 and a low of 6070.89 [2] Weekly Performance - The pharmaceutical sector declined by 0.84%, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 2.07 percentage points, ranking 31st among 31 sub-industries [20][22] - The medical consumables sector saw the highest increase of 3.93%, while the medical research outsourcing sector experienced the largest decline of 3.56% [7][23] Beneficiary Stocks - Beneficiary stocks in the innovative drug sector include: - H-shares: Innovent Biologics, CanSino Biologics, Zai Lab, and others - A-shares: Zai Lab, Eucure Biopharma, and others - In the medical device and consumables sector, notable companies include: Mindray Medical, United Imaging Healthcare, and others [8][18] Sub-sector Analysis - **Medical Devices**: The sector is expected to benefit from policies supporting high-end medical device innovation, with a current TTM P/E ratio of 38.35, indicating potential for valuation growth [28][29] - **Medical Consumables**: The sector is anticipated to see steady growth as high-value consumables procurement approaches completion, with a focus on companies with high growth potential [30] - **IVD Sector**: The IVD sector is projected to improve due to policy optimizations, with a TTM P/E ratio of 37.80, suggesting room for valuation increases [32] - **Blood Products**: The sector is experiencing stable demand growth, with a focus on companies with strong operational efficiency and brand value [34][35] - **Retail Pharmacy**: The sector is undergoing consolidation, with leading pharmacies expected to benefit from increased customer traffic and profitability [36] - **Healthcare Services**: The hospital sector is recovering, with growth in specific areas like ophthalmology and assisted reproductive technology [39][40] - **Traditional Chinese Medicine**: The sector is expected to see a turning point as inventory clears, with a focus on innovative and policy-benefiting companies [41][42] - **CXO Sector**: The sector is recovering, with an increase in demand for outsourcing services, driven by improved fundamentals [44][45] - **Innovative Drugs**: Despite recent adjustments, the sector remains optimistic about future performance, supported by strong global competitiveness [46][47]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform" [2] Core Views - The report highlights a positive performance in the PEEK sector, with key companies such as Wanhua Chemical, Yangnong Chemical, and Hualu Hengsheng being recommended for investment. The focus is also on pesticide anti-involution strategies, particularly with Limin Co. [5][6] - The basic chemical sector has shown a weekly increase of 2.33%, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 1.1 percentage points [6][18] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The closing index for the basic chemical sector is at 3814.15, with a 52-week high of 3814.15 and a low of 2687.54 [2] - Year-to-date performance shows the basic chemical index has decreased by 10.38%, while the CSI 300 index has increased by 21.22%, indicating a lag of 10.84 percentage points [18] Weekly Performance - The report notes significant stock price fluctuations, with notable increases in companies like Kexin New Energy (53.05%), Anli Co. (51.60%), and Xinhang New Materials (45.88%) [7][19] - Conversely, companies such as Lianhua Technology (-10.41%) and Cangzhou Dahua (-8.80%) experienced declines [8][21] Commodity Price Movements - Key commodities that saw price increases include formic acid (28.62%), broiler chicks (21.93%), and dichloromethane (17.50%) [9][24] - Notable price decreases were observed in commodities like sucralose (-28.00%) and eggs (-8.48%) [27][28] Key Company Ratings and Forecasts - Wanhua Chemical is rated "Buy" with a closing price of 60.8 CNY and a market cap of 190.33 billion CNY [11] - Yangnong Chemical is also rated "Buy" with a closing price of 64.7 CNY and a market cap of 26.23 billion CNY [11] - Other companies such as Hualu Hengsheng and Sailun Tire are similarly rated "Buy" with respective closing prices of 23.8 CNY and 13.1 CNY [11]

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a "Buy" rating for the company [5][6]. Core Views - The impact of the aortic stent price adjustment is gradually diminishing, and the company maintains its long-term growth potential. The company is positioned in a high-growth segment of high-value consumables [5][6]. - The company has completed over half of its annual equity incentive targets, reflecting confidence in future growth [6][37]. - The company is expanding its product offerings, with new products expected to drive revenue growth in the peripheral intervention segment [10][20]. Company Overview - The company focuses on the research, production, sales, and service of aortic and peripheral vascular interventional medical devices. As of September 2024, its products are used in over 2,400 hospitals in China and have entered 40 countries, saving over 330,000 lives globally [4][20]. - The company has a total market capitalization of 138 billion yuan and a total share capital of 1.23 billion shares [3]. Financial Performance - The company expects revenues of 1.519 billion yuan, 1.894 billion yuan, and 2.331 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 26%, 25%, and 23% [5][12]. - The projected net profit attributable to the parent company for the same years is 617 million yuan, 737 million yuan, and 904 million yuan, with growth rates of 23%, 20%, and 23% [5][12]. - The company’s PE ratios for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are projected to be 22.27, 18.72, and 15.25, respectively [5][12]. Product Development - The company has launched new products, including the Cratos branched stent, which is expected to enhance market acceptance and replace older models [7][10]. - The company is set for a significant year in 2025 for the release of new peripheral products, which are anticipated to become a new growth engine [10][20]. Market Position - The company holds a leading position in the domestic market for aortic interventional products, with a market share of 29% as of 2021 [20]. - The company’s aortic intervention stent revenue has shown a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 39% from 2016 to 2023 [20][26].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, expecting a relative increase in stock price of over 20% within the next six months [7][15]. Core Insights - The company reported a significant revenue growth of 39.21% year-on-year, reaching 6.901 billion yuan in H1 2025, with a net profit increase of 14.04% to 1.241 billion yuan [3][4]. - All business segments showed rapid growth, particularly the oil and gas engineering and technology services, which saw an impressive revenue increase of 88.14% [4]. - The company has effectively managed its cash flow, with a net cash flow from operating activities of 3.144 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 20.83% [6]. Financial Performance - The company achieved a gross margin of 32.19% in H1 2025, a decrease of 3.64 percentage points compared to the previous year [4]. - The company’s revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 16.289 billion, 18.973 billion, and 21.508 billion yuan, with expected growth rates of 21.97%, 16.48%, and 13.36% respectively [7][11]. - The estimated PE ratios for 2025-2027 are 15.11, 13.03, and 11.47, indicating a favorable valuation trend [7][11]. Business Development - The natural gas business has shown remarkable growth, with a revenue increase of 112.69% in H1 2025, contributing to the overall expansion of the company [5]. - The company has successfully expanded its overseas market presence, achieving a revenue of 3.295 billion yuan from international operations, a year-on-year increase of 38.38% [5]. - New orders totaled 9.881 billion yuan in H1 2025, reflecting a growth of 37.65%, ensuring a robust order backlog of 12.386 billion yuan [5].