证券研究报告：固定收益报告 发布时间：2025-06-26 研究所 分析师:梁伟超 SAC 登记编号:S1340523070001 Email:liangweichao@cnpsec.com 分析师:李书开 SAC 登记编号:S1340524040001 Email:lishukai@cnpsec.com 近期研究报告 《中长久期高评级城投债流动性上升- - 流 动 性 打 分 周 报 20250623 》 - 2025.06.24 信用周度观点 超长期限：行情还能走多远？ ——信用周报 20250625 ⚫ 超长期限：行情还能走多远？ 六月中旬开始行情意外到来，上周信用债整体走势上行，但涨幅 普遍不及利率债，且在期限上与利率债有所不同。上周利率债整体走 强，中短期限涨幅较大，而超长期限涨幅较小。信用债走势跟利率债 一致，也在持续上涨，但不同的地方在于信用债中短期限反而涨幅较 低，长期限的涨幅却高于同期限的利率债。此外，超长期限信用债行 情意外回暖，涨幅不仅超过同期限利率债，也好于普信债的普遍表现。 从折价成交的情况来看，上周机构卖出超长期限信用债的意愿十 分淡薄。周一-周五超长期限信用债折价成交的占比分别为 ...

《短期上涨动能枯竭，控制仓位做好 防御——微盘股指数周报 20250615》 - 2025.06.16 《为何微盘股基金仓位下降指数却不 断新高？——微盘股指数周报 证券研究报告：金融工程报告 20250608》 - 2025.06.09 研究所 分析师:肖承志 SAC 登记编号:S1340524090001 Email:xiaochengzhi@cnpsec.com 近期研究报告 《调整仍不充分——微盘股指数周报 20250622》 - 2025.06.23 《小盘股成交占比高意味着拥挤度高 吗？——微盘股指数周报 20250601》 - 2025.06.02 《微盘股容易被忽略的"看空成本" ——微盘股指数周报 20250525》 - 2025.05.26 《证监会修改《重组办法》，深化并购 重组改革——微盘股指数周报 20250518》 - 2025.05.19 《微盘股会涨到什么时候——微盘股 指数周报 20250511》 - 2025.05.12 《4 月完美收官，5 月看好高波成长— —微盘股指数周报 20250504》 - 2025.05.06 《年报效应边际递减，右侧买入信号 触发——微盘股指 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, expecting a relative increase in stock price of over 20% compared to the benchmark index within the next six months [5][12]. Core Insights - The company is expected to benefit from the rising prices of DDR4 memory, with anticipated price increases of 18-23% for server DDR4 and 13-18% for PC DDR4 in the second quarter [3]. - The transition to DDR5 is accelerating, with major suppliers planning to phase out DDR4 production by early 2026, while consumer demand for DDR4 remains strong [3]. - The company has made significant progress in developing its proprietary enterprise-level storage modules, including DDR4, DDR5, and Gen4 eSSD, which are now in mass production [4]. - Revenue projections for the company are optimistic, with expected revenues of 300 billion, 352 billion, and 404 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, alongside net profits of 7.0 billion, 11.2 billion, and 14.1 billion yuan [5][10]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The latest closing price is 36.05 yuan, with a total market capitalization of 167 billion yuan and a total share capital of 4.64 billion shares [2]. Financial Forecasts - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 30 billion yuan in 2025, with a growth rate of 23.64%, and net profits of 704 million yuan, reflecting a significant increase of 166.52% from the previous year [10][11]. - The expected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is 1.52 yuan, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 24.12 [10][11]. Market Position - The enterprise SSD market is primarily dominated by international manufacturers, but there is a growing opportunity for domestic companies, with the company positioning itself to capture this market through its "Haipu Storage" brand [4].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [1] Core Views - The company is experiencing strong growth in AI server demand, driven by continuous capital expenditure from cloud vendors to enhance AI computing infrastructure. The revenue from the cloud computing segment increased by over 50% year-on-year in Q1 2025, with AI servers and general servers also seeing over 50% growth [4] - The company is transitioning its product offerings from 100G/200G to 400G/800G switches, with a forecast that 800G switches will become mainstream by 2025. The company is increasing its market share in high-end products [5] - Revenue projections for the company are estimated at 768.28 billion yuan, 922.87 billion yuan, and 1,112.57 billion yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with net profits expected to be 28.94 billion yuan, 35.07 billion yuan, and 41.83 billion yuan for the same years [6] Company Overview - The latest closing price of the company's stock is 20.29 yuan, with a total market capitalization of 402.9 billion yuan. The company has a debt-to-asset ratio of 51.8% and a price-to-earnings ratio of 17.34 [3]

Industry Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained at "Outperform the Market" [1] Core Viewpoints - The supply-demand contradiction in the convertible bond market remains prominent, with approximately 470 existing bonds as of June 20, 2025, including 14 related to the banking sector [3][7] - The market valuation level has shown significant recovery, with the median conversion premium and pure bond yield at 31.43% and -1.60% respectively as of June 20, 2025 [4][11] - The low volatility attribute of the banking sector is expected to maintain its advantage in the long term, especially considering the current international trade and geopolitical situation [5][13] Summary by Relevant Sections Industry Basic Situation - The closing index level is 4479.03, with a 52-week high of 4479.03 and a low of 3132.76 [1] Market Supply and Demand - As of June 20, 2025, there are 10 existing bank convertible bonds with a total scale of approximately 151.3 billion, accounting for less than 23% of the total convertible bond market [3][9] - The demand for bank convertible bonds remains high due to their strong credit quality and risk resistance, while the supply has stagnated since 2023 due to long-term undervaluation [7][9] Market Valuation - The market has seen a notable recovery in valuation levels, with some indicators returning to relatively high levels compared to recent years [4][11] Investment Recommendations - It is suggested to focus on the largest existing convertible bonds, such as the Industrial Bank convertible bond and the representative Shangyin convertible bond from city commercial banks, considering their reasonable valuation and substantial remaining balance [5][13]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" with a first-time coverage [1] Core Views - The company is experiencing short-term demand pressure, but its operational quality is continuously improving [4] - In 2024, the company is expected to achieve revenue of 7.01 billion yuan, with a significant decline in net profit due to the absence of one-time gains from previous years [4][10] - The company is focusing on optimizing its sales system and enhancing operational quality by emphasizing profitable revenue and cash flow [5] Company Overview - Latest closing price is 4.37 yuan, with a total market capitalization of 6.6 billion yuan [3] - The company has a total share capital of 1.509 billion shares, with a debt-to-asset ratio of 42.7% and a price-to-earnings ratio of 121.39 [3] Financial Performance - In 2024, the company is projected to have a gross margin of 22.93% and a net profit margin of 0.78%, with various expense ratios reflecting changes in operational efficiency [4] - For Q1 2025, the company is expected to report a revenue of 1.647 billion yuan, with a net profit of 88 million yuan, showing a recovery in profitability compared to the previous year [5][10] Revenue Breakdown - In 2024, revenue from liquid milk, solid milk, and ice cream is expected to be 4.411 billion, 0.963 billion, and 1.499 billion yuan respectively, with varying growth rates across product lines [4] - Revenue from distribution and direct sales channels is projected to be 3.840 billion and 2.243 billion yuan respectively, indicating a decline in direct sales [4] Future Outlook - The company aims to achieve revenue growth in 2025, with expectations of 7.015 billion yuan, and a gradual increase in net profit over the next few years [8][10] - The forecast for 2025-2027 indicates a slight revenue growth trajectory, with net profit expected to increase significantly in 2025 [8][10]

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a "Buy" rating for the company [1]. Core Views - The demand growth driven by AI will continue to elevate the need for high-frequency, high-speed boards, HDI boards, and IC carrier boards. The company is well-positioned to capitalize on market opportunities by enhancing its product structure through technological innovation and digitalization, leading to steady improvements in operational performance [4]. - The overseas base in Thailand is progressing as planned, with trial production already underway. This project is expected to establish a solid foundation for long-term performance growth, with an anticipated production capacity of 150 to 200 million units by 2025 [5]. Financial Projections - Revenue projections for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are estimated at 49.6 billion, 58.7 billion, and 67.8 billion yuan respectively, with net profits of 8.9 billion, 11.3 billion, and 13.3 billion yuan respectively. The report maintains a "Buy" rating based on these forecasts [6]. - The company is expected to achieve a revenue growth rate of 39.43% in 2024, followed by 32.91% in 2025, 18.18% in 2026, and 15.56% in 2027 [8]. Financial Metrics - The latest closing price is 54.97 yuan, with a total market capitalization of 234 billion yuan and a circulating market value of 83 billion yuan. The company has a debt-to-asset ratio of 45.9% and a price-to-earnings ratio of 33.11 [3]. - The projected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 2.09 yuan, 2.65 yuan, and 3.14 yuan respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings ratios of 26.34, 20.80, and 17.60 [10].

Industry Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" and is maintained [1] Core Viewpoints - The express delivery industry in China continues to maintain a medium to high-speed growth, with business volume reaching historical highs. The recent trend towards logistics automation is expected to further enhance operational efficiency and reduce costs across the supply chain, leading to improved performance for express delivery companies [6][21] - SF Express is leading in growth with a business volume increase of 31.8% year-on-year, driven by its "activation of operations" strategy. Other companies like ZTO Express, YTO Express, Shentong Express, and Yunda Express are also recommended due to favorable trends in e-commerce delivery [6][21] Summary by Relevant Sections Industry Overview - In May 2025, the total express delivery volume reached 17.32 billion pieces, a year-on-year increase of 17.2%. The express delivery revenue was 125.55 billion yuan, up 8.2%, with an average price per delivery of 7.25 yuan, down 7.6% year-on-year [4][9] Company Performance - SF Express reported a business volume of 1.477 billion pieces in May 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 31.8%, contributing to a 13.4% increase in logistics revenue. ZTO Express, Shentong Express, and Yunda Express also showed significant growth, although their growth rates were slightly lower than SF Express [5][15][16] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends buying shares in SF Express, ZTO Express, YTO Express, Shentong Express, and Yunda Express due to their strong growth potential and favorable market conditions [6][21] - The earnings forecasts for key companies are as follows: - SF Express: EPS of 2.34 yuan in 2025E, PE of 21.65 - ZTO Express: EPS of 13.44 yuan in 2025E, PE of 10.04 - YTO Express: EPS of 1.25 yuan in 2025E, PE of 10.32 - Shentong Express: EPS of 0.91 yuan in 2025E, PE of 11.82 - Yunda Express: EPS of 0.70 yuan in 2025E, PE of 9.53 [8]

Industry Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" and is maintained [2] Core Views - The report highlights that the escalation of the Israel-Palestine conflict has led to increased geopolitical uncertainties, resulting in price increases for oil and gas-related products. The market is expected to seek certainty, with low valuation and high dividend directions likely to benefit from the second quarter's performance certainty [5][6] Summary by Relevant Sections Industry Overview - The closing index level is 3385.44, with a weekly high of 3564.08 and a low of 2687.54 [2] Recent Market Performance - The basic chemical sector experienced a weekly increase of 3.76%, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 3.94 percentage points [6] - Year-to-date performance shows the basic chemical index down 2.02%, while the CSI 300 index is up 13.59%, indicating a 15.61 percentage point underperformance [19] Price Movements - Key products with price increases include Brent crude oil (up 13.68%), ammonium sulfate (up 12.31%), and PX (up 10.53%) [9][23] - Notable price decreases were observed in liquid chlorine (down 60.00%) and chick seedlings (down 36.33%) [10][26] Stock Performance - Significant stock price increases were noted for companies such as Ningxin New Materials (up 46.75%) and Tongyuan Petroleum (up 42.09%) [7][20] - Conversely, stocks like退市海越 experienced a significant drop of 38.85% [8][21] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests a focus on companies with strong earnings forecasts and maintains buy ratings for several key companies, including Wanhua Chemical and Yangnong Chemical [12][13]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, marking its first coverage [2][9]. Core Insights - The company, Jingbeifang, is a leading financial technology service provider in China, focusing on advanced technologies such as artificial intelligence, big data, cloud computing, blockchain, and digital twins, which support clients in their digital transformation [3]. - In 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 4.636 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 9.29%, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 312 million yuan [3]. - The company has a strong technical foundation and aims to participate in the stablecoin industry, leveraging its experience in digital currency infrastructure and applications [4]. - Jingbeifang has developed a diverse customer ecosystem, covering cross-border payment systems and expanding its services to non-bank financial institutions [5][7]. - The recent legislative developments in Hong Kong regarding stablecoins are expected to accelerate the application of blockchain technology in cross-border financial scenarios, benefiting the company's business [8]. Financial Overview - The projected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025-2027 are 0.42, 0.48, and 0.58 yuan, with corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 37.66, 32.49, and 26.90 [9][11]. - The company is expected to maintain a steady revenue growth rate of approximately 11% annually from 2025 to 2027 [11]. - The financial metrics indicate a healthy operating margin and return on equity (ROE) projected to increase from 11.1% in 2024 to 14.3% by 2027 [12].