Quantitative Models and Construction Methods 1. Model Name: Diffusion Index Model - **Model Construction Idea**: The diffusion index is used to monitor the critical points of market trend changes, helping to identify potential buy or sell signals based on the distribution of stock price movements within the micro-cap index components [5][35]. - **Model Construction Process**: The diffusion index is calculated by analyzing the relative price changes of micro-cap index components over a specific time window. For example, if all stocks in the index drop by 5% after 5 days, the diffusion index value is 0.37. The formula and methodology involve tracking the relative price changes over different time horizons (e.g., 10 to 20 trading days) and calculating the index value based on the distribution of these changes [35][37]. - **Model Evaluation**: The diffusion index remains in a high volatility range, indicating that the market is neither "too expensive" nor "too cheap." It is sensitive to large price movements, which can trigger buy or sell signals [5][36]. 2. Model Name: Threshold Methods (First and Delayed) - **Model Construction Idea**: These methods aim to provide trading signals (e.g., open or close positions) based on predefined threshold values of the diffusion index [5][39][43]. - **Model Construction Process**: - **First Threshold Method**: Triggered when the diffusion index crosses a specific threshold. For instance, on May 8, 2025, the index value of 0.9850 triggered a sell signal [39]. - **Delayed Threshold Method**: Similar to the first method but with a delayed response. For example, on May 15, 2025, the index value of 0.8975 triggered a sell signal [43]. - **Model Evaluation**: These methods are effective for identifying turning points in the market but may require careful calibration to avoid false signals [5][43]. 3. Model Name: Dual Moving Average Method - **Model Construction Idea**: This method adapts to market trends by using two moving averages to generate trading signals [5][44]. - **Model Construction Process**: - Signals are generated when the short-term moving average crosses the long-term moving average. For example, on April 30, 2025, the method provided a buy signal [44]. - **Model Evaluation**: The dual moving average method is adaptive and suitable for trending markets but may lag in highly volatile conditions [5][44]. --- Model Backtesting Results 1. Diffusion Index Model - Current value: 0.79 (as of June 6, 2025) [35][36] 2. Threshold Methods - **First Threshold Method**: Triggered a sell signal at 0.9850 on May 8, 2025 [39] - **Delayed Threshold Method**: Triggered a sell signal at 0.8975 on May 15, 2025 [43] 3. Dual Moving Average Method - Provided a buy signal on April 30, 2025 [44] --- Quantitative Factors and Construction Methods 1. Factor Name: Free Float Ratio Factor - **Factor Construction Idea**: Measures the proportion of freely tradable shares to total shares, indicating liquidity [4][16]. - **Factor Construction Process**: Calculated as the ratio of free float shares to total shares. Weekly rank IC: 0.091; historical average: -0.012 [4][16]. 2. Factor Name: Dividend Yield Factor - **Factor Construction Idea**: Represents the annual dividend as a percentage of the stock price, reflecting income generation potential [4][16]. - **Factor Construction Process**: Calculated as annual dividends divided by the current stock price. Weekly rank IC: 0.085; historical average: 0.021 [4][16]. 3. Factor Name: Leverage Factor - **Factor Construction Idea**: Indicates the financial leverage of a company, reflecting its debt-to-equity ratio [4][16]. - **Factor Construction Process**: Calculated as total debt divided by total equity. Weekly rank IC: 0.072; historical average: -0.006 [4][16]. 4. Factor Name: Single-Quarter ROE Factor - **Factor Construction Idea**: Measures the return on equity for a single quarter, indicating profitability [4][16]. - **Factor Construction Process**: Calculated as net income divided by shareholders' equity for a single quarter. Weekly rank IC: -0.002; historical average: 0.023 [4][16]. 5. Factor Name: Standardized Expected Earnings Factor - **Factor Construction Idea**: Reflects the market's expectations of future earnings, standardized for comparison [4][16]. - **Factor Construction Process**: Derived from analysts' earnings forecasts, adjusted for standardization. Weekly rank IC: -0.008; historical average: 0.014 [4][16]. --- Factor Backtesting Results Top 5 Factors (Weekly Rank IC) 1. Free Float Ratio Factor: 0.091 [4][16] 2. Dividend Yield Factor: 0.085 [4][16] 3. Leverage Factor: 0.072 [4][16] 4. Single-Quarter ROE Factor: -0.002 [4][16] 5. Standardized Expected Earnings Factor: -0.008 [4][16] Bottom 5 Factors (Weekly Rank IC) 1. Unadjusted Stock Price Factor: -0.153 [4][16] 2. Nonlinear Market Cap Factor: -0.119 [4][16] 3. Logarithmic Market Cap Factor: -0.119 [4][16] 4. PB Reciprocal Factor: -0.116 [4][16] 5. Profitability Factor: -0.084 [4][16]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [1] Core Views - The company plans to acquire 100% of Rui Cheng Microelectronics and 45.64% of NaNeng Microelectronics through a combination of stock issuance and cash payment, aiming to build a dual-engine model of "EDA + IP" [4] - The company has achieved a revenue of 419 million yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 27.42%, with a significant contribution from EDA software licensing and semiconductor device testing systems [5] - The company has increased its R&D investment to 289 million yuan in 2024, accounting for 68.90% of its operating revenue, indicating a strong commitment to innovation and domestic substitution [6] Company Overview - The latest closing price of the company's stock is 27.66 yuan, with a total market capitalization of 12 billion yuan [3] - The company has a total share capital of 4.35 billion shares, with 1.78 billion shares in circulation [3] - The company has a debt-to-asset ratio of 20.0% and a negative price-to-earnings ratio of -125.73 [3] Financial Projections - The company is expected to achieve revenues of 525 million yuan, 658 million yuan, and 826 million yuan in 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding net profits of 10 million yuan, 30 million yuan, and 64 million yuan [8][10] - The projected growth rates for revenue are 25.29%, 25.39%, and 25.46% for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [10] - The company anticipates a significant improvement in net profit margins, with a projected net profit margin of 7.7% by 2027 [10]

Group 1: Report Information - The report is a fixed - income report released on June 9, 2025 [1] - Analysts are Liang Weichao (SAC registration number: S1340523070001) and Cui Chao (SAC registration number: S1340523120001) [2] Group 2: Core Viewpoints - High - frequency economic data focuses on four aspects: production is stable with a slight decline, real estate shows continuous marginal improvement, prices have a marginal recovery, and shipping indices continue to rise significantly. Short - term attention should be paid to the implementation of new growth - stabilizing stimulus policies, the recovery of the real estate market, and changes in US tariff policies [2][31] Group 3: Production - In the week of June 6, the capacity utilization rate of coke ovens decreased by 0.15 pct, the blast furnace operating rate decreased by 0.31 pct, and the output of rebar decreased by 7.05 tons. The operating rate of petroleum asphalt increased by 3.6 pct, the PX operating rate increased by 4.91 pct, and the PTA operating rate increased by 6.1 pct. The operating rate of all - steel tires decreased by 1.33 pct, and the operating rate of semi - steel tires decreased by 4.39 pct [3][10][11] Group 4: Demand - In the week of June 1, the real estate market continued to improve, with the transaction area of commercial housing rising and the inventory - to - sales ratio falling. The land transaction area increased, and the premium rate of residential land transactions decreased. The movie box office increased by 235 million yuan compared with the previous week. In the week of May 31, the daily average retail sales of automobile manufacturers increased by 34,500 vehicles, and the daily average wholesale sales increased by 80,700 vehicles. In the week of June 6, the shipping index SCFI rose 8.09%, CCFI rose 3.34%, and BDI rose 15.16% [3][14][20] Group 5: Prices - In the week of June 6, Brent crude oil prices rose 4.02% to $66.47 per barrel, coking coal futures prices rose 5.06% to 779 yuan per ton. The LME copper, aluminum, and zinc futures prices changed by +1.83%, +0.12%, and +1.25% respectively, and the domestic rebar futures prices rose 0.64%. The overall price of agricultural products decreased, with the prices of pork, eggs, vegetables, and fruits changing by - 0.97%, - 2.96%, +0.46%, and - 0.64% respectively compared with the previous week [3][22][24] Group 6: Logistics - In the week of June 7, the subway passenger volume in Beijing and Shanghai decreased, and the peak congestion index in first - tier cities continued to decline. In the week of May 28, the number of domestic and international flights decreased [4][27][29]

证券研究报告：宏观报告 发布时间：2025-06-09 研究所 分析师:袁野 SAC 登记编号:S1340523010002 Email:yuanye@cnpsec.com 研究助理:苑西恒 SAC 登记编号:S1340124020005 Email:yuanxiheng@cnpsec.com 近期研究报告 《5 月制造业生产活力提升，稳需求政 策发力空间打开》 - 2025.06.03 宏观研究 美关税不确定下，日元资产的演化路径 核心观点 （1）美国关税政策成为 9 月日本加息关键变量，利差交易平仓 或冲击全球资产 近三年日本通胀居高不下，一直维持在日本央行 2%的通胀目标水 平之上，特别是进入 2025 年以来，日本 CPI 同比增速处于 3.5%以上 水平，日本核心 CPI 同比增速亦保持在 3%以上，成为制约日本内需的 重要因素。日本通胀的根源在哪？是大米等食品价格推升，还是工资 -通胀螺旋自我强化机制的确立？这不仅决定了日本通胀的可持续 性，亦会影响日本央行货币政策的操作。 日本通胀高企，工业产品是主要支撑，大米等农产品并非主要推 动力。从商品和服务两个维度来看，日本商品价格高涨是日本通胀高 企的 ...

Quantitative Models and Construction 1. Model Name: GRU (Gated Recurrent Unit) Models - **Model Construction Idea**: GRU models are used to capture sequential patterns in stock price movements and combine fundamental and technical features for prediction[3][4] - **Model Construction Process**: - The GRU models are trained on historical stock data, incorporating both fundamental and technical indicators as input features - Different variations of GRU models are used, such as `open1d`, `close1d`, and `barra1d`, which focus on specific aspects of stock price movements (e.g., open prices, close prices, or Barra-style factor adjustments)[4][5][6] - **Model Evaluation**: GRU models show mixed performance, with some models like `barra1d` performing well, while others like `close1d` exhibit significant drawdowns[5][6][8] --- Backtesting Results of Models GRU Models - **open1d**: Weekly excess return: -0.23%, Monthly: 2.34%, YTD: 6.70%[31][32] - **close1d**: Weekly excess return: 0.06%, Monthly: 3.83%, YTD: 5.55%[31][32] - **barra1d**: Weekly excess return: 0.00%, Monthly: 0.34%, YTD: 3.33%[31][32] - **barra5d**: Weekly excess return: 0.10%, Monthly: 2.88%, YTD: 7.01%[31][32] --- Quantitative Factors and Construction 1. Factor Name: Beta - **Factor Construction Idea**: Measures the historical sensitivity of a stock's returns to market returns[15] - **Factor Construction Process**: Calculated as the historical beta of the stock relative to the market[15] 2. Factor Name: Momentum - **Factor Construction Idea**: Captures the average historical excess returns of a stock over a specific period[15] - **Factor Construction Process**: - Momentum = Mean of historical excess return series[15] 3. Factor Name: Volatility - **Factor Construction Idea**: Measures the variability of a stock's excess returns over time[15] - **Factor Construction Process**: - Volatility = 0.74 * Historical excess return volatility + 0.16 * Cumulative excess return deviation + 0.10 * Residual return volatility[15] 4. Factor Name: Valuation - **Factor Construction Idea**: Represents the inverse of the price-to-book ratio, indicating undervaluation[15] - **Factor Construction Process**: - Valuation = 1 / Price-to-Book Ratio[15] 5. Factor Name: Growth - **Factor Construction Idea**: Measures the growth potential of a stock based on earnings and revenue growth[15] - **Factor Construction Process**: - Growth = 0.24 * Earnings Growth Rate + 0.47 * Revenue Growth Rate[15] 6. Factor Name: Profitability - **Factor Construction Idea**: Combines various profitability metrics to assess a stock's financial health[15] - **Factor Construction Process**: - Profitability = 0.68 * Analyst Forecast Earnings Yield + 0.21 * Inverse of Price-to-Cash Flow Ratio + 0.11 * Inverse of Price-to-Earnings Ratio (TTM) + 0.18 * Analyst Forecast Long-Term Growth Rate + 0.11 * Analyst Forecast Short-Term Growth Rate[15] --- Backtesting Results of Factors Fundamental Factors - **Static Financial Factors**: Weekly excess return: Negative[4][6] - **Growth Factors**: Weekly excess return: Positive[4][6] - **Surprise Growth Factors**: Weekly excess return: Positive[4][6] Technical Factors - **Short-Term Momentum**: Weekly excess return: Negative[4][6] - **Long-Term Momentum**: Weekly excess return: Positive[4][6] - **Volatility**: Weekly excess return: Positive[4][6] GRU Factors - **open1d**: Weekly excess return: Positive[4][6] - **close1d**: Weekly excess return: Negative[5][6] - **barra1d**: Weekly excess return: Positive[5][6]

Industry Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" [1] Core Viewpoints - Indonesia is considering the procurement of Chinese-made J-10 fighter jets, which is expected to boost the military trade market's activity. The Indonesian government aims to enhance its air force's modernization while ensuring cost-effectiveness in its defense budget. The performance of the J-10 in the India-Pakistan conflict is a significant factor in Indonesia's consideration of this model. Compared to Western counterparts, the J-10 offers a more competitive price and meets Indonesia's demand for "high cost-performance advanced equipment" [10][12][14] - The report suggests that China's military trade, currently accounting for 5.9% of the global military trade market, has the potential for significant growth as China increasingly takes center stage on the world stage [12][14] - Looking ahead to 2025, the military industry is expected to see an inflection point in orders, driven by new technologies aimed at enhancing equipment performance or reducing costs, as well as new market directions from military trade and military technology conversion [14] Summary by Sections 1. Industry Overview - The closing index for the defense industry is at 1508.79, with a 52-week high of 1712.48 and a low of 1113.62 [1] 2. Market Performance - The military industry index increased by 0.07%, while the Shenwan military index rose by 0.41%. The Shanghai Composite Index increased by 1.13%, and the Shenzhen Component Index rose by 1.42% [16] - The top ten performing stocks in the military sector this week include Xinguang Optoelectronics (+10.62%), Huawu Co., Ltd. (+9.71%), and Longda Co., Ltd. (+9.21%) [18] 3. Investment Recommendations - Two main investment themes are suggested: 1) Aerospace and "gap-filling" new focuses, including companies like Feilihua, Fenghuo Electronics, and AVIC Shenyang Aircraft [14] 2) New technologies, products, and markets with greater elasticity, including Aerospace Intelligent Manufacturing and Guangdong Hongda [14] 4. Valuation Levels - As of June 6, 2025, the military industry index stands at 10727.13, with a PE-TTM valuation of 103.35 and a PB valuation of 3.29. Historically, 79.75% of the time since January 1, 2014, the PE-TTM valuation has been below the current level [21][22]

Industry Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" and is maintained [2]. Core Viewpoints - The report emphasizes that policy support for listed companies through mergers and acquisitions is crucial for high-quality development, leading to ongoing industry consolidation [5][14]. - The pharmaceutical and biotechnology sector has shown a weekly increase of 1.13%, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 0.25 percentage points, ranking 17th among 31 sub-industries [7][18]. Summary by Sections 1. Weekly Viewpoint - The report highlights that recent policies have improved regulatory inclusiveness and relaxed competition restrictions, facilitating mergers and acquisitions [14]. - Companies like Maipu Medical and Pilin Bio have announced plans for mergers and acquisitions, which are expected to enhance their technological capabilities and market positions [6][15]. 2. Subsector Performance - The pharmaceutical sector's sub-indices all recorded gains, with the raw materials and blood products sectors leading with a 2.89% increase [7][22]. - The report suggests that the medical device sector has significant room for valuation growth, with a current P/E ratio of 37.55, below its historical average [26]. 3. Recommended and Beneficiary Stocks - Recommended stocks include Yingke Medical, Maipu Medical, and Yihe Jiaye, among others [8]. - Beneficiary stocks identified are Shanhaishan, Yirui Technology, and Lianying Medical [27]. 4. Detailed Subsector Analysis - **Medical Devices**: The sector is expected to benefit from policies promoting equipment upgrades and procurement, with a focus on AI applications in imaging and surgery [26]. - **Medical Consumables**: The sector is projected to see steady growth as high-value consumables approach the end of their procurement cycle [29]. - **IVD Sector**: The report notes a 2.00% increase in the IVD sector, with a focus on AI-assisted diagnostics [30]. - **Blood Products**: The blood products sector is experiencing a 2.89% increase, with ongoing consolidation and product diversification [31]. - **Retail Pharmacy**: The offline pharmacy sector is expected to benefit from improved operational efficiencies through AI integration [34]. - **Healthcare Services**: The hospital sector has seen a 1.07% increase, with growth in specific medical fields like ophthalmology and reproductive health [36]. - **Traditional Chinese Medicine**: The sector is expected to recover as the impact of previous procurement policies diminishes [38]. - **CXO Sector**: The report indicates a positive outlook for the CXO sector, driven by increased demand for outsourcing in drug development [40].

Industry Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" and is maintained [2] Core Viewpoints - The report emphasizes that policy support for listed companies through mergers and acquisitions is crucial for high-quality development, leading to ongoing industry consolidation [5][14] - The pharmaceutical and biotechnology sector has seen a weekly increase of 1.13%, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 0.25 percentage points, ranking 17th among 31 sub-industries [7][18] Summary by Sections 1. Weekly Viewpoint - The report highlights that recent policies have improved regulatory inclusiveness and relaxed competition restrictions, facilitating mergers and acquisitions [14] - Companies like Maipu Medical and Pilin Bio have announced plans for mergers and acquisitions, which are expected to enhance their technological capabilities and market positions [6][15] 2. Subsector Performance - The pharmaceutical and biotechnology sector has shown positive performance across all sub-sectors, with the raw materials and blood products sectors leading with a 2.89% increase [7][22] - The report suggests that the medical device sector has significant room for valuation growth, with a current P/E ratio of 37.55, below its historical average [26] 3. Recommended and Benefiting Stocks - Recommended stocks include Yingke Medical, Maipu Medical, and Yihua Jiaye, among others [8] - Benefiting stocks from the current trends include Shanhaishan, Yirui Technology, and Lianying Medical [8][27] 4. Detailed Subsector Analysis - **Medical Devices**: The sector is expected to benefit from policies promoting equipment upgrades and procurement, with a focus on AI integration in imaging and surgical applications [26] - **Medical Consumables**: The sector is projected to see steady growth as high-value consumables approach the end of their procurement cycle [29] - **IVD Sector**: The in vitro diagnostics sector is anticipated to recover as AI technologies enhance diagnostic capabilities [30] - **Blood Products**: The blood products sector is experiencing stable demand, with a projected 10.9% increase in plasma collection in 2024 [31] - **Retail Pharmacy**: The retail pharmacy sector is expected to see improved performance as market conditions stabilize and AI technologies enhance operational efficiency [34] - **Healthcare Services**: The healthcare services sector is showing signs of recovery, particularly in ophthalmology and reproductive health services [36] - **Traditional Chinese Medicine**: The sector is expected to benefit from improved consumer sentiment and demand for high-quality OTC products [38] - **CXO Sector**: The CXO sector is entering an upward cycle as companies report improved order growth and performance [40]

Industry Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" and is maintained [1] Core Viewpoints - Indonesia is considering the procurement of Chinese-made J-10 fighter jets, which is expected to boost the military trade market's activity [10][14] - China's military trade currently accounts for 5.9% of the global military trade market, significantly lower than the US at 43% and Russia at 9.6% [12][14] - The military industry is anticipated to see an inflection point in orders as it enters the second half of the "Centenary Goal of Building a Strong Army" by 2025, with new technologies and products expected to create new market directions [14] Summary by Sections 1. Industry Overview - The closing index for the defense industry is at 1508.79, with a 52-week high of 1712.48 and a low of 1113.62 [1] 2. Investment Suggestions - Two main investment themes are suggested: 1. Aerospace and "gap-filling" new focuses, including companies like Feilihua, Fenghuo Electronics, and AVIC Shenfei [14] 2. New technologies, products, and markets with greater elasticity, including companies like Aerospace Intelligent Manufacturing and Guangdong Hongda [14] 3. Market Performance - The military industry index saw a slight increase of 0.07%, while the broader market indices showed higher gains, indicating a relatively weaker performance in the military sector [16] - The top ten performing stocks in the military sector this week included Xinguang Optoelectronics (+10.62%) and Huawu Co., Ltd. (+9.71%) [18] 4. Valuation Levels - As of June 6, 2025, the military industry index stands at 10727.13, with a PE-TTM valuation of 103.35 and a PB valuation of 3.29 [21] - Historical data shows that 79.75% of the time since January 1, 2014, the PE-TTM valuation has been lower than the current level [21] 5. Data Tracking - Recent data tracking includes information on private placements and stock incentive plans for various military companies, indicating active capital movements within the sector [24][26]

证券研究报告：国防军工|点评报告 行业投资评级 强于大市|维持 行业点评：硝化棉需求旺盛，出口量价齐升 | 行业基本情况 | | --- | | 收盘点位 | 1508.79 | | --- | --- | | 52 周最高 | 1712.48 | | 52 周最低 | 1113.62 | 行业相对指数表现（相对值） -13% -8% -3% 2% 7% 12% 17% 22% 27% 32% 2024-06 2024-08 2024-11 2025-01 2025-03 2025-06 国防军工 沪深300 资料来源：聚源，中邮证券研究所 研究所 分析师:鲍学博 SAC 登记编号:S1340523020002 Email:baoxuebo@cnpsec.com 分析师:王煜童 SAC 登记编号:S1340523070004 Email:wangyutong@cnpsec.com 近期研究报告 《中邮军工周报 5 月第 4 周：美国防预 算将达 1 万亿美元，创历史新高》 - 2025.05.26 事件 2025 年 1-4 月，我国硝化棉出口数量为 760 万吨，同比增长 39%； 出口金额为 2.50 亿 ...