证券研究报告：国防军工|点评报告 行业投资评级 强于大市|维持 行业点评：硝化棉需求旺盛，出口量价齐升 | 行业基本情况 | | --- | | 收盘点位 | 1508.79 | | --- | --- | | 52 周最高 | 1712.48 | | 52 周最低 | 1113.62 | 行业相对指数表现（相对值） -13% -8% -3% 2% 7% 12% 17% 22% 27% 32% 2024-06 2024-08 2024-11 2025-01 2025-03 2025-06 国防军工 沪深300 资料来源：聚源，中邮证券研究所 研究所 分析师:鲍学博 SAC 登记编号:S1340523020002 Email:baoxuebo@cnpsec.com 分析师:王煜童 SAC 登记编号:S1340523070004 Email:wangyutong@cnpsec.com 近期研究报告 《中邮军工周报 5 月第 4 周：美国防预 算将达 1 万亿美元，创历史新高》 - 2025.05.26 事件 2025 年 1-4 月，我国硝化棉出口数量为 760 万吨，同比增长 39%； 出口金额为 2.50 亿 ...

Industry Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" and is maintained [1] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights the recent development of green electricity direct connection policies, which are expected to break down trade barriers in the EU and enhance the operational capabilities of green electricity operators [4][7] - The introduction of green electricity direct connection is seen as a necessary response to the stringent carbon barriers imposed by the EU, which will require detailed carbon footprint disclosures for various battery types starting in 2024 [7] - The demand for green electricity direct connection from companies operating in the EU is expected to be rigid, potentially leading to long-term Power Purchase Agreements (PPAs) and stabilizing expectations for renewable energy investments [8] Summary by Sections Industry Basic Information - The closing index is at 3165.47, with a 52-week high of 3359.79 and a low of 2868.51 [1] Recent Policy Developments - On May 21, 2025, the National Development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration issued a notice to promote the development of green electricity direct connection [4] - The policy defines green electricity direct connection and addresses issues related to the ownership of direct connection lines [6] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies like JinkoSolar and GCL-Poly Energy, which are expected to benefit from the green electricity direct connection policies [8]

证券研究报告：国防军工|点评报告 行业投资评级 强于大市|维持 | 行业基本情况 | | --- | | 收盘点位 | 1508.79 | | --- | --- | | 52 周最高 | 1712.48 | | 52 周最低 | 1113.62 | 研究所 分析师:鲍学博 SAC 登记编号:S1340523020002 Email:baoxuebo@cnpsec.com 分析师:王煜童 SAC 登记编号:S1340523070004 Email:wangyutong@cnpsec.com 行业相对指数表现（相对值） -13% -8% -3% 2% 7% 12% 17% 22% 27% 32% 2024-06 2024-08 2024-11 2025-01 2025-03 2025-06 国防军工 沪深300 资料来源：聚源，中邮证券研究所 近期研究报告 《中邮军工周报 5 月第 4 周：美国防预 算将达 1 万亿美元，创历史新高》 - 2025.05.26 行业点评：硝化棉需求旺盛，出口量价齐升 事件 2025 年 1-4 月，我国硝化棉出口数量为 760 万吨，同比增长 39%； 出口金额为 2.50 亿 ...

- Model Name: GRU Factor Model; Model Construction Idea: The GRU factor model leverages transaction information to capture excess returns; Model Construction Process: The GRU factor model is built using minute-level volume and price data processed through a GRU deep learning network. The model dynamically adjusts based on historical training data to adapt to market conditions; Model Evaluation: The GRU factor model has shown strong performance in short cycles but is less effective in longer cycles[7][32][37] - Model Name: Diffusion Index Model; Model Construction Idea: The diffusion index model is based on the principle of price momentum; Model Construction Process: The diffusion index model tracks the momentum of industry indices. It ranks industries based on their diffusion index values, which are calculated from price trends. The model suggests industry allocations based on these rankings; Model Evaluation: The diffusion index model performs well in capturing upward trends but may fail during market reversals[6][26][36] Model Backtest Results - GRU Factor Model, Average Weekly Return: 0.82%, Excess Return over Equal-Weighted Index: -0.58%, Year-to-Date Excess Return: -4.71%[35] - Diffusion Index Model, Average Weekly Return: 2.22%, Excess Return over Equal-Weighted Index: 0.82%, Year-to-Date Excess Return: -0.81%[30] Factor Rankings - GRU Factor Rankings (as of June 6, 2025): Top 6 industries: Banking (1.41), Real Estate (1.21), Coal (1.08), Oil & Petrochemicals (0.61), Electric Utilities (0.42), Steel (-0.13); Bottom 6 industries: Electric Equipment & New Energy (-19.92), Media (-18.56), Comprehensive Finance (-17.89), Computers (-15.93), Non-Banking Finance (-15.92), Automotive (-14.28)[7][33] - Diffusion Index Rankings (as of June 6, 2025): Top 6 industries: Comprehensive Finance (1.0), Comprehensive (0.998), Non-Banking Finance (0.997), Banking (0.969), Media (0.953), Computers (0.942); Bottom 6 industries: Coal (0.166), Oil & Petrochemicals (0.268), Non-Ferrous Metals (0.566), Agriculture, Forestry, Animal Husbandry & Fishery (0.594), Electric Utilities (0.624), Building Materials (0.71)[6][27]

证券研究报告：有色金属|行业周报 发布时间：2025-06-09 行业投资评级 强于大市 |维持 行业基本情况 | 收盘点位 | | 4842.88 | | --- | --- | --- | | 52 | 周最高 | 5020.22 | | 52 | 周最低 | 3700.9 | 行业相对指数表现 2024-06 2024-08 2024-10 2025-01 2025-03 2025-06 -18% -14% -10% -6% -2% 2% 6% 10% 14% 18% 有色金属 沪深300 资料来源：聚源，中邮证券研究所 研究所 分析师:李帅华 SAC 登记编号:S1340522060001 Email:lishuaihua@cnpsec.com 分析师:魏欣 SAC 登记编号:S1340524070001 Email:weixin@cnpsec.com 研究助理:杨丰源 SAC 登记编号:S1340124050015 Email:yangfengyuan@cnpsec.com 近期研究报告 《关税预期扰动不改黄金上行趋势》 - 2025.06.03 有色金属行业报告 （2025.06.02-2022. ...

证券研究报告：国防军工|行业周报 发布时间：2025-06-09 行业投资评级 强于大市|维持 | 行业基本情况 | | | --- | --- | | 收盘点位 | 1508.79 | | 52 周最高 | 1712.48 | | 52 周最低 | 1113.62 | 行业相对指数表现 -13% -8% -3% 2% 7% 12% 17% 22% 27% 32% 2024-06 2024-08 2024-11 2025-01 2025-03 2025-06 国防军工 沪深300 资料来源：聚源，中邮证券研究所 研究所 分析师:鲍学博 SAC 登记编号:S1340523020002 Email:baoxuebo@cnpsec.com 分析师:马强 SAC 登记编号:S1340523080002 Email:maqiang@cnpsec.com 近期研究报告 《中邮军工周报 5 月第 4 周：美国防预 算将达 1 万亿美元，创历史新高》 - 2025.05.26 河北一硝化棉厂商煮洗釜爆炸，硝化棉供应紧张或 进一步加剧 ⚫ 投资要点 2025 年 5 月 30 日 18 时 20 分，衡水市武邑县建民纤维素有限 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, marking its first coverage [2]. Core Insights - The defense sector is showing signs of recovery, and the commercial aerospace outlook is promising. The company has faced significant revenue declines due to market conditions and project delays but is positioned to benefit from improving demand in the defense industry and expanding opportunities in commercial aerospace [5][6][7]. Company Overview - The latest closing price is 54.09 yuan, with a total market capitalization of 5.8 billion yuan and a circulating market capitalization of 2.3 billion yuan. The company has a total share capital of 1.08 billion shares, with 420 million shares in circulation. The 52-week high and low prices are 68.96 yuan and 39.10 yuan, respectively. The asset-liability ratio stands at 36.5%, and the price-to-earnings ratio is 125.30 [4]. Financial Performance - In 2024, the company reported revenue of 630 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 26%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 47 million yuan, down 41% year-on-year. For Q1 2025, revenue was 86 million yuan, a 53% decline year-on-year, with a net loss of 18 million yuan, representing a 283% decrease year-on-year [5][6]. - The company is expected to see a turnaround in performance, with projected net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 at 81 million, 123 million, and 166 million yuan, respectively, reflecting growth rates of 74%, 52%, and 35% [7][9]. Market Position and Strategy - The company is a leading domestic manufacturer of electrical connectors and interconnection products, particularly in military RF coaxial connectors. It is actively enhancing its order fulfillment capabilities through optimized production scheduling and increased automation to meet market demands [6][7]. - The company is strategically aligned with national priorities in aerospace, weaponry, and communications, particularly in key projects like StarNet and G60, positioning itself favorably in the burgeoning commercial aerospace sector [7].

证券研究报告：国防军工|行业周报 发布时间：2025-06-09 行业投资评级 强于大市|维持 行业相对指数表现 -13% -8% -3% 2% 7% 12% 17% 22% 27% 32% 2024-06 2024-08 2024-11 2025-01 2025-03 2025-06 国防军工 沪深300 资料来源：聚源，中邮证券研究所 研究所 分析师:鲍学博 SAC 登记编号:S1340523020002 Email:baoxuebo@cnpsec.com 分析师:马强 SAC 登记编号:S1340523080002 Email:maqiang@cnpsec.com 近期研究报告 《中邮军工周报 5 月第 4 周：美国防预 算将达 1 万亿美元，创历史新高》 - 2025.05.26 | 行业基本情况 | | | --- | --- | | 收盘点位 | 1508.79 | | 52 周最高 | 1712.48 | | 52 周最低 | 1113.62 | 国防军工行业报告 河北一硝化棉厂商煮洗釜爆炸，硝化棉供应紧张或 进一步加剧 ⚫ 投资要点 2025 年 5 月 30 日 18 时 20 分，衡水市武 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, marking its first coverage [2]. Core Insights - The defense sector is showing signs of recovery, and the commercial aerospace outlook is promising. The company has faced significant revenue declines due to market conditions and project delays but is positioned to benefit from improving demand in the defense industry and expanding opportunities in commercial aerospace [5][6][7]. Company Overview - The latest closing price is 54.09 yuan, with a total market capitalization of 5.8 billion yuan and a circulating market value of 2.3 billion yuan. The company has a debt-to-asset ratio of 36.5% and a price-to-earnings ratio of 125.30 [4]. Financial Performance - In 2024, the company reported revenues of 630 million yuan, a 26% decrease year-on-year, and a net profit of 47 million yuan, down 41% year-on-year. For Q1 2025, revenues fell to 86 million yuan, a 53% decline, with a net loss of 18 million yuan, representing a 283% decrease [5][6]. Future Projections - The company anticipates a rebound in net profits from 81 million yuan in 2025 to 166 million yuan in 2027, with corresponding growth rates of 74%, 52%, and 35%. The projected price-to-earnings ratios for these years are 72, 47, and 35, respectively [7][9].

Industry Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" and is maintained [2] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights the increasing production and delivery of China's C919 passenger aircraft, with an expected annual production capacity of 75 units by 2025 and 200 units by 2029 [6] - The C919 aircraft has achieved over 50% domestic production rate, although key components like engines and avionics still rely on foreign suppliers [7] - The report emphasizes the importance of domestic supply chain security for aviation materials, predicting a shift towards domestic production of critical systems and high-value components [9] Summary by Relevant Sections Industry Basic Situation - The closing index is at 1508.79, with a 52-week high of 1712.48 and a low of 1113.62 [2] Recent Developments - The U.S. has suspended the sale of certain technologies to Chinese companies, impacting the development of the C919 aircraft [5] - The report notes that the CJ-1000A engine development is progressing better than expected, which is crucial for the C919's future [9] Market Performance - The relative performance of the defense and military industry shows a fluctuating trend, with a peak increase of 32% observed from June 2024 to June 2025 [4]