行业研究丨深度报告丨汽车与汽车零部件 [Table_Title] 整车管家系列：如何看待政策阶段的旺季行情 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 丨证券研究报告丨 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 复盘来看，当下条件与 2015-2017 年具有相似性，1）面临高基数压力；2）次年政策退出/补贴 力度退坡；3）指数经过调整。2017 年 9-11 月，高基数下总销量仍个位数增长，乘用车指数调 整后又走出一段新高行情。2024-2025 年以旧换新政策效果明显，政策支撑需求增长，2025 年 底前新能源车型可能抢装，有望在高基数压力下支撑总量企稳，乘用车指数回落提供反弹空间， 类比 2015-2017 年阶段，具有强销量增速，强新车周期，业绩表现较好的α整车企业可能走出 穿越周期的行情。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 高伊楠 麦贻智 SAC：S0490517060001 SFC：BUW101 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 2 / 28 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 2 汽车与汽车零部件 cjzqdt11111 [Table_Ti ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and it is maintained [10] Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 471 million yuan in the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 13.8%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 147 million yuan, up 15.3% year-on-year [2][7] - In Q2 alone, the company generated a revenue of 251 million yuan, which is a 12.7% increase year-on-year and a 14.0% increase quarter-on-quarter [2][7] - The company's main products, nucleating agents and synthetic hydrotalcite, are key raw materials for producing high-performance resins, and the domestic substitution is accelerating amid global trade policy fluctuations [13] - The company has completed its IPO project and fully utilized its Nansha plant, enhancing its production capacity significantly [13] - The overseas revenue reached 120 million yuan in the first half of 2025, marking a substantial growth of 70.1% year-on-year, indicating a strong international strategy [13] - The company aims to become a "definer" of comprehensive solutions in high polymer materials, enhancing customer satisfaction and loyalty through customized services [13] - The company is a leader in the domestic nucleating agent and synthetic hydrotalcite market, with potential for continued market share growth [13] Financial Summary - The company forecasts net profits of 297 million yuan, 348 million yuan, and 401 million yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [13] - The total revenue is projected to reach 1.058 billion yuan in 2025, with a gross profit margin of 44% [19] - The company’s net profit margin is expected to be around 28.1% in 2025 [19]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the software and services industry [7]. Core Insights - The computer sector experienced a significant increase of 5.44% last week, ranking 5th among major industries in the Yangtze River region, with a trading volume accounting for 9.93% of the total market [2][4]. - The rapid growth of AI applications in China is highlighted, with the daily average token consumption increasing from 100 billion at the beginning of 2024 to over 30 trillion by June 2025, reflecting a growth of over 300 times in just a year and a half [6][45]. - The report emphasizes the importance of AI infrastructure, overseas applications, and vertical integration companies in sectors like education, taxation, and healthcare [6][59]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - The overall market showed strength, with the Shanghai Composite Index surpassing 3700 points, closing at 3696.77 points, up 1.70% [4][15]. - The computer sector's trading activity was notably robust, particularly in financial IT-related stocks [2][17]. Key Recommendations - Focus on AI applications, particularly in infrastructure, overseas markets (video, coding, solutions), and vertical integration in specific sectors [6][59]. - The report suggests that the data industry is entering a rapid development phase, with the number of data companies expected to exceed 400,000 and the industry scale reaching 5.86 trillion yuan, a 117% increase from the end of the 13th Five-Year Plan [19][25]. AI and Robotics Developments - The 2025 World Humanoid Robot Games held in Beijing showcased advancements in humanoid robotics, indicating a new phase of development for the industry [26][31]. - The report notes that the performance of domestic AI models is improving, which is expected to accelerate the commercialization of AI applications [54][57].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [9] Core Viewpoints - The company plans to grant shares to no more than 250 individuals, including directors, supervisors, senior management, and core technical/business personnel, with a total of up to 100 million shares (approximately 7.48% of total share capital) [2][4] - The employee stock ownership plan will have a reserved stock of no more than 19.70% of the total shares granted [2][4] - The funding sources for the plan include employee self-funding and loans from major shareholders, with stock sourced from the company's repurchased shares [2][4] - The company aims for a total paper product sales volume of no less than 4.7 million tons by 2025, with the plan's duration not exceeding 120 months and a lock-up period of 12 months [2][4] Industry Analysis - The "anti-involution" trend in the industry is expected to catalyze profitability elasticity for white cardboard paper [5] - The total inventory in the paper industry chain increased in Q2 2025, indicating that the industry is still at a low point in the cycle [5] - The industry is anticipated to enter an upward cycle as new capacity growth slows down from 2026, with expectations for commodity prices to return to healthier levels [5] - The current paper prices and profitability are at historical lows, with expectations for gradual profit elasticity release alongside consumption recovery [5] Company Analysis - The company is expected to maintain stable growth in production and sales, although profitability is currently under pressure [6] - In Q2 2025, profitability is expected to decline due to the traditional off-season for packaging paper, with white cardboard prices decreasing by approximately 200 yuan/ton from March to June [6] - The company anticipates a recovery in profitability as the packaging paper sales season begins in Q3 2025 [6] - The company is focusing on developing differentiated products and expects rapid growth in overseas sales, with export revenue significantly increasing to 16% [7] - Historical valuation indicates that the company's price-to-book (PB) ratio is currently below 1.0, suggesting potential for valuation recovery [7] - Projected net profits for 2025-2027 are estimated at 230 million, 380 million, and 510 million yuan, corresponding to price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 29, 18, and 13 [7]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - From August 11 - 15, 2025, the central bank's 7 - day reverse repurchase had a net capital withdrawal, and a 6 - month outright reverse repurchase operation of 50 billion yuan was conducted. The overall liquidity remained stable and loose during the week, with a marginal increase in funding rates on the 15th due to the tax period. The central bank's monetary policy implementation report re - mentioned "preventing capital idling", but it is expected not to cause a tightening of the liquidity. The government bond net payment scale increased, most inter - bank certificate of deposit (NCD) yields rose, and the average leverage ratio in the inter - bank bond market increased [2][8]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Funding Situation - **Open Market Operations**: From August 11 - 15, 2025, the central bank's 7 - day reverse repurchase had a net withdrawal of 41.49 billion yuan. From August 18 - 22, 71.18 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchases and 22 billion yuan of treasury deposits will mature, and a 12 - billion - yuan treasury cash deposit operation will be carried out on August 18. After the central bank conducted a 70 - billion - yuan 3 - month outright reverse repurchase operation on August 8, it carried out another 50 - billion - yuan 6 - month outright reverse repurchase operation on August 15, with a total excess roll - over of 30 billion yuan in August [6]. - **Funding Rates**: From August 11 - 15, the average values of DR001 and R001 were 1.33% and 1.37% respectively, up 1.9 basis points from August 4 - 8; the average values of DR007 and R007 were 1.45% and 1.47% respectively, up 0.6 basis points and down 0.1 basis points from August 4 - 8. DR001 increased marginally to 1.40% on August 15 when entering the tax payment stage. After the tax period ends, the funding rates are expected to return to the stable and loose level in the first half of August [7]. - **Government Bond Net Payment**: From August 11 - 17, 2025, the government bond net payment scale was about 41.036 billion yuan, an increase of about 3.98 billion yuan compared with August 4 - 10. From August 18 - 24, the government bond net payment scale is expected to be 26.41 billion yuan [8]. 2. Inter - bank Certificates of Deposit - **Yields**: As of August 15, 2025, the yields of 1 - month and 3 - month NCDs were 1.4600% and 1.5250% respectively, up 1 basis point and down 1 basis point from August 8; the yield of 1 - year NCDs was 1.6400%, up 2 basis points from August 8 [9]. - **Net Financing**: From August 11 - 17, 2025, the net financing of NCDs was about - 131.1 billion yuan. From August 18 - 24, the maturity repayment volume of NCDs is expected to be 794.7 billion yuan, with the roll - over pressure decreasing compared with the previous week [9]. 3. Institutional Behavior - The average leverage ratio in the inter - bank bond market increased. From August 11 - 15, 2025, the average calculated leverage ratio in the inter - bank bond market was 107.83%, compared with 107.70% from August 4 - 8 [10].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [6]. Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 5.49 billion yuan in Q2 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 4.1%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 50 million yuan, an increase of 45.1% year-on-year. The company is expected to benefit from a rich order backlog and improved profitability in its passenger car seat projects [2][4][9]. - The integration efforts overseas are showing results, with expectations of significant profit elasticity as overseas profitability improves [2][9]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q2 2025, the company reported a revenue of 5.49 billion yuan, down 4.1% year-on-year but up 8.9% quarter-on-quarter. The decline was primarily due to the sale of TMD. The gross margin was 14.4%, remaining stable year-on-year but down 1.9 percentage points quarter-on-quarter. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 50 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 45.1% [2][9]. - The company’s R&D expenses increased due to a rise in new orders, with a total of 175 new R&D personnel added by June 30, 2025 [9]. Business Development - The passenger car seat business saw a revenue of 1.98 billion yuan in H1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 121.2%. The company has 24 ongoing projects for passenger car seats as of July 31, 2025, indicating strong future growth potential [9]. - The company is also expanding into air conditioning vents and vehicle refrigerators, which have received multiple orders, further enhancing long-term growth prospects [9]. Market Outlook - The global automotive market is experiencing high demand, with significant year-on-year increases in production and sales across major markets, including China, the U.S., and Europe [9]. - The company expects net profits attributable to shareholders to reach 550 million yuan, 990 million yuan, and 1.34 billion yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 26.9X, 15.1X, and 11.2X [9].

Core Insights - The current US economic growth shows signs of comprehensive slowdown, with a cooling labor market and weak inflation reinforcing market expectations for a shift in Federal Reserve policy [2][6][14] - The anticipated interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve will significantly impact the US dollar and US Treasury markets, with historical trends indicating that Treasury yields typically decline ahead of policy shifts [2][7][30] - The impact of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts on global equity markets is structurally differentiated, primarily depending on the motivation behind the policy [2][8][30] Economic Indicators - Recent macroeconomic data from the US indicates a broad weakening, with key indicators falling below market expectations. Non-farm payrolls for July increased by only 73,000, significantly lower than the expected 104,000, marking the lowest monthly increase since October 2024 [6][14] - The unemployment rate has been on the rise, reaching 4.2% in July, further confirming the cooling labor market. Inflation data also shows weakness, with July's CPI growth at 2.7%, below the expected 2.8% [14][20] Interest Rate and Currency Dynamics - US Treasury yields are expected to decline ahead of the Federal Reserve's official interest rate cut, driven by the forward-looking nature of the bond market. Short-term Treasuries (e.g., 2-year) are more sensitive to interest rate changes compared to long-term Treasuries (e.g., 10-year) [7][22][29] - The US dollar index typically weakens during the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut cycles. For instance, during the 2001 rate cut cycle, the dollar index fell by 13.34%, while it has already decreased by 3.20% since the first cut in 2024 [30][33] Equity Market Reactions - The Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts have historically led to varied impacts on global equity markets, largely influenced by the underlying economic conditions. Passive easing in response to recession often results in significant declines in equity markets, while preemptive cuts in resilient economic conditions can support equity valuations [8][30][34] - In the context of the 2024 preemptive rate cuts, corporate earnings remain relatively robust, which has helped to improve market risk appetite and support equity markets [8][34] Recent Asset Movements - Major US stock indices have recently shown gains, with the Nasdaq, Dow Jones, and S&P 500 rising by 2.20%, 2.14%, and 2.03% respectively. The healthcare, financial, and consumer discretionary sectors led the gains [5][37] - In the commodities market, LME zinc, copper, and Brent crude oil have seen increases, while gold and rebar steel have declined [5][37]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [7] Core Viewpoints - The launch of the first "Dream Level" costume "Wuling'er - Mirror Dream" for the game "Supernatural Action Group" on the 17th has led to a peak ranking in the iOS free list at Top 3 and Top 4 in the sales list, marking a new high since its launch [2][4] - The unique themes and gameplay of "Supernatural Action Group" are driving sustained interest, with strong social features potentially making it another blockbuster product with high daily active users (DAU) [2][4] - The company is actively advancing several new games, including "Five Thousand Years" and "Famous Generals Kill," alongside a comprehensive layout of game + AI strategies, supporting long-term growth [2][4] Summary by Sections Event Description - The first "Dream Level" costume "Wuling'er - Mirror Dream" was launched on the 17th, achieving significant rankings in various app store categories [4] Event Commentary - The game "Supernatural Action Group" has maintained a weekly update frequency since summer, with new costumes, characters, and maps contributing to its ranking improvements [11] - The game features innovative themes such as "supernatural, Cthulhu, and folk horror," appealing to younger players' desire for excitement and curiosity [11] - The company is integrating AI technology into gameplay, with products like "Space Kill" being among the first to utilize AI in the gaming industry [11] Financial Forecast and Investment Suggestions - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 2.26 billion and 2.86 billion for 2025 and 2026, respectively, corresponding to price-to-earnings ratios of 24.3 and 19.1 times [11]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - From August 11th to August 17th, local government bonds issued a total of 9.1432 billion yuan, including 4.9356 billion yuan in new bonds (3.0321 billion yuan in new general bonds and 1.9034 billion yuan in new special bonds) and 4.2076 billion yuan in refinancing bonds (2.8632 billion yuan in refinancing general bonds and 1.3445 billion yuan in refinancing special bonds). From August 18th to August 24th, local government bonds are expected to issue 36.915 billion yuan, including 24.8807 billion yuan in new bonds (953.9 million yuan in new general bonds and 23.9268 billion yuan in new special bonds) and 12.0343 billion yuan in refinancing bonds (4.6873 billion yuan in refinancing general bonds and 7.347 billion yuan in refinancing special bonds) [2][4][5] - As of August 17th, the fourth round of special refinancing bonds has a total disclosed amount of 435.5743 billion yuan, with 196.7218 billion yuan disclosed in 2025 and an additional 9.164 billion yuan to be disclosed next week. The top three provinces or municipalities with separate planning in terms of the fourth - round disclosure scale are Jiangsu (56.47 billion yuan), Hunan (27.8732 billion yuan), and Shandong (24.1398 billion yuan). As of August 17th, the special new special bonds in 2025 have a total disclosed amount of 44.0733 billion yuan, and since 2023, a total of 163.1246 billion yuan has been disclosed. The top three in terms of disclosure scale are Jiangsu (21.0235 billion yuan), Hubei (12.8769 billion yuan), and Xinjiang (11.886 billion yuan). The top three provinces or municipalities with separate planning in terms of the 2025 disclosure scale are Jiangsu (9.51 billion yuan), Hebei (3.9143 billion yuan), and Hubei (3.6913 billion yuan) [6] Summary by Directory Local Bond Actual Issuance and Forecast Issuance - From August 11th to August 17th, the net supply of local government bonds was - 1.37 billion yuan; from August 18th to August 24th, the forecast net supply of local government bonds is 20.88 billion yuan [10][15] - A comparison of the planned and actual issuance of local government bonds in July and August is presented, showing differences in the issuance of new bonds, new general bonds, new special bonds, and refinancing bonds [13][17] - The monthly issuance plan, actual issuance, and net financing situation of local government bonds are also shown [21] Local Bond Net Supply - As of August 17th, the issuance progress of new general bonds was 70.47%, and the issuance progress of new special bonds was 64.10% [25] - The cumulative scale of the difference between refinancing bonds and local government bond maturities as of August 17th is presented [25] Special Bond Issuance Details - As of August 17th, the statistics of special refinancing bonds show the issuance amounts in different rounds for various provinces and municipalities [29] - As of August 17th, the statistics of special new special bonds show the issuance amounts from 2023 to 2025 for various provinces and municipalities [31] Local Bond Investment and Trading - The first - and second - level spreads of local government bonds are presented, including the spreads for different maturities and the changes over time [36] - The second - level spreads of local government bonds in different regions are presented, showing the spread changes in different regions from May to August 2025 [39] New Special Bond Investment Directions - The investment directions of new special bonds are presented, with the latest month's statistics only considering the issued new bonds [42]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [9]. Core Insights - The company reported stable operations in the first half of 2025, with significant revenue growth in structural mechanics performance testing systems and a relatively fast growth rate in electrochemical workstations. Overall, the business remains stable [2][6]. - The gross profit margin for various segments has improved, leading to an enhancement in overall sales gross margin. The company continues to promote domestic substitution of mechanical products and aims to build a high-end scientific research instrument platform [2][6]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, the company achieved revenue of 283 million, a year-on-year increase of 2.44%. The net profit attributable to the parent company was 76 million, up 2.80% year-on-year. The second quarter of 2025 saw revenue of 174 million, a year-on-year increase of 1.34% [6]. - The gross profit margin for the structural mechanics performance testing system was 69.62%, an increase of 3.30 percentage points year-on-year, while the electrochemical workstation's gross profit margin was 67.83%, up 2.93 percentage points [12]. Business Development - The company is advancing the development of new products, including customized measurement and control analysis systems and experimental simulation integration platforms, to enrich its product line [12]. - The establishment of Jiangsu Donghua Calibration Testing Co., Ltd. aims to provide third-party calibration and testing services, increasing market share in various industries [12]. Product Quality and Market Position - The company offers a comprehensive range of sensor products, including accelerometers, speed sensors, displacement sensors, impact sensors, and strain sensors, which are reliable and suitable for harsh environments [12]. - The data acquisition and control analysis systems are noted for their accuracy, stability, and strong anti-interference capabilities, contributing to the company's competitive edge [12]. Future Projections - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 154 million and 202 million in 2025 and 2026, respectively, corresponding to price-to-earnings ratios of 38x and 29x [12].