证券研究报告 | 行业周报 gszqdatemark 2025 05 10 年 月 日 医药生物 【周专题&周观点】【总第 396 期】产线齐全、技术领先，国产血净龙头绘新篇 一、当周（5.6-5.9）回顾与周专题： 当周（5.6-5.9）申万医药指数环比+1.01%，跑输创业板指数，跑输沪深 300 指数。本 周周报，我们梳理了威高血净招股书，供各位投资者参考。 二、近期复盘： 1、当周表现：本周市场（节后交易四天）在过节期间多个利好刺激下，高开后连续震 荡。医药指数这边，走势类似。结构上看，脑机接口、外骨骼机器人、部分减肥链、少 量低位创新药有相对亮眼表现，其他都是个股逻辑为主，前期强势的大部分创新药标的 有所回调。 2、原因分析：本周市场高开主要受五一节期间多个利好刺激带动。节后，前期调整了 一段时间的科技风格资产回归，创新药资金被分流（近期创新药和其他科技资产"跷跷 板"），叠加美国那边部分信息扰动（关税、药价、FDA 等），大部分创新药标的在本周 有所回调。因为科技风格资产反弹，受市场风格映射影响，脑机接口、外骨骼机器人等， 表现亮眼。部分减肥链偏主题标的表现较好，其他表现好的都是个股逻辑，虽然这周 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [6][7] Core Views - The company is expected to achieve a significant recovery in performance in Q1 2025, with a projected revenue growth of 29% [2] - The company has signed new contracts worth 2.053 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 93%, indicating strong future revenue growth potential [4] - The establishment of a subsidiary focused on space-grade perovskite solar power generation is anticipated to create new growth opportunities in the commercial aerospace sector [5] Financial Performance Summary - In 2024, the company reported total revenue of 1.3 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.5%, but a decline in net profit attributable to shareholders to 90 million yuan, down 47% [2] - The gross profit margin for 2024 was 30%, a decrease of 4.7 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to high initial costs associated with the Dalian Airport project [3] - The company’s operating cash flow showed a net outflow of 80 million yuan in 2024, which is a significant increase in cash outflow compared to the previous year [3] Revenue and Profit Forecast - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 259 million yuan in 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 180% [6] - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is estimated to be 1.05 yuan, with a corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 20 times [6] Market Position and Growth Drivers - The company’s business is concentrated in Southeast Asia and the Middle East, benefiting from increased infrastructure demand driven by urbanization and industrialization [4] - The company has established a complete supply chain for aerospace quality, successfully supporting the launch of 15 satellites and over 40 satellite power systems [5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the real estate industry [4] Core Insights - A comprehensive financial policy package has been released, including a 0.5% reduction in the reserve requirement ratio, which is expected to provide approximately 1 trillion yuan in long-term liquidity to the market. Additionally, the policy interest rate has been lowered by 0.1%, which is anticipated to lead to a similar decrease in the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) [10][11] - The report emphasizes that the real estate sector serves as an early economic indicator, making it a crucial area for investment [4] - The competitive landscape within the industry is improving, with leading state-owned enterprises and select mixed-ownership and private companies expected to benefit more in the future [4] Summary by Sections Financial Policy Overview - The financial policy package aims to stabilize market expectations and includes measures such as lowering the personal housing provident fund loan rate by 0.25%, bringing the interest rate for first-time homebuyers over five years down from 2.85% to 2.6% [10] - The number of approved "white list" loans by commercial banks has increased to 6.7 trillion yuan, supporting the construction and delivery of over 16 million residential units [10] Market Performance Review - The Shenwan Real Estate Index experienced a cumulative change of 0.4%, lagging behind the CSI 300 Index by 1.59 percentage points, ranking last among 31 Shenwan primary industries [11] - New housing transaction volumes in 30 sample cities totaled 150.1 million square meters, reflecting a 29.6% decrease month-on-month and a 1.8% decrease year-on-year [22] - The second-hand housing market also saw a decline, with a total transaction area of 158.0 million square meters across 14 sample cities, down 12.6% month-on-month and 8.0% year-on-year [32] Credit Bond Issuance - A total of 10 credit bonds were issued by real estate companies this week, with a total issuance scale of 6.454 billion yuan, marking an increase of 1.923 billion yuan from the previous week [41] - The net financing amount was -8.157 billion yuan, indicating a decrease of 6.891 billion yuan from the previous week [41] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on real estate-related stocks, particularly in first-tier and select second- and third-tier cities, as these areas are expected to perform better during market rebounds [4] - Recommended companies include Green Town China, China Overseas Development, and Poly Developments among others, categorized into fundamental alpha companies, local state-owned enterprises, and intermediaries [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [3][6]. Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 35.39 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 12.0%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.21 billion yuan, up 28.6% [1]. - The company is accelerating the development of new battery technologies and expanding its overseas production bases [3]. - The company’s battery product shipments are expected to grow by 40% in 2024 and 50% in Q1 2025 [2]. Financial Performance - In 2024, the company reported a gross profit margin of 18.0% and a net profit margin of 3.3%, both showing improvements [1]. - For Q1 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 9.06 billion yuan, reflecting a 20.6% increase year-on-year [1]. - The company’s net profit for Q1 2025 was 100 million yuan, a 45.6% increase compared to the previous year [1]. Product and Market Position - In the power battery sector, the company ranked eighth globally in installed capacity with a market share of 3.2% [2]. - The company is the third largest in the global lithium iron phosphate battery market, with a market share of 6.18% [2]. - In the energy storage battery sector, the company holds a 6% market share, ranking seventh globally [2]. Technology and Innovation - The company has launched several high-performance battery products and introduced its first-generation all-solid-state "Jinshi" battery [3]. - The company is also developing products for new market segments such as low-altitude aircraft and electric ships [3]. Profit Forecast - The company’s net profit is projected to reach 1.31 billion yuan in 2025, with a growth rate of 8.8% [3]. - The expected net profits for 2026 and 2027 are 1.87 billion yuan and 2.55 billion yuan, respectively, with growth rates of 42.5% and 36.5% [3].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a rating of "Add" for the C-REITs sector [6] Core Viewpoints - The C-REITs market is expected to present investment opportunities due to a low interest rate environment anticipated in 2025 and ongoing macroeconomic recovery [5] - The report highlights that the secondary market for C-REITs has shown moderate upward trends, particularly in the affordable housing and consumer infrastructure sectors, while transportation infrastructure and ecological environmental sectors have experienced pullbacks [3][5] - The report emphasizes the importance of timing in investment decisions, suggesting that the current focus should be on asset resilience, secondary market prices, and P/NAV ratios [5] Summary by Sections REITs Index Performance - The CSI REITs total return index increased by 0.39% this week, closing at 1062.1 points, while the CSI REITs closing index rose by 0.28% to 848.4 points [1][11] - Year-to-date, the CSI REITs total return index has risen by 9.73%, ranking second among various indices [2][11] REITs Secondary Market Performance - The overall secondary market for C-REITs has shown a mild upward trend, with a total market capitalization of approximately 190.27 billion yuan and an average market cap of about 2.9 billion yuan per REIT [3][13] - Among the listed REITs, 44 have increased in value while 21 have decreased, with an average weekly increase of 0.66% [3][13] REITs Valuation Performance - The internal rate of return (IRR) for listed REITs remains stable, with the top three REITs yielding 11.4%, 10.8%, and 9.1% respectively [5] - The P/NAV ratios are in the range of 0.7 to 1.7, with the lowest being 0.7 for the China Communications Construction REIT [5]

证券研究报告 | 行业周报 gszqdatemark 2025 05 11 年 月 日 房地产开发 2025W19：一揽子金融政策发布，降准降息落地，地产支持政策稳步推进 行情回顾：本周申万房地产指数累计变动幅度为 0.4%，落后沪深 300 指 数 1.59 个百分点，在 31 个申万一级行业排名第 31 名。 本周网签数据依然有五一假期的影响，样本城市新房二手房成交量能低位 徘徊。新房：本周 30 个城市新房成交面积为 150.1 万平方米，环比下降 29.6%，同比下降 1.8%，其中样本一线城市的新房成交面积为 42.6 万 方，环比-35.3%，同比+17.1%；样本二线城市为 68.5 万方，环比-29.4%， 同比-14.9%；样本三线城市为 39.0 万方，环比-22.5%，同比+8.5%。 二手房：本周 14 个样本城市二手房成交面积合计 158.0 万方，环比下降 12.6%，同比下降 8.0%。其中样本一线城市的本周二手房成交面积为 59.2 万方，环比-22.5%；样本二线城市为 81.4 万方，环比 5.9%；样本 三线城市为 17.4 万方，环比-36.8%。 信用债：本周共发行房 ...

Quantitative Models and Construction Methods 1. Model Name: Industry Rotation Model Based on Prosperity-Trend-Crowdedness Framework - **Model Construction Idea**: This model integrates three dimensions: industry prosperity, market trend, and crowdedness, aiming to identify industries with high prosperity, strong trends, and low crowdedness for rotation strategies [1][3][8] - **Model Construction Process**: 1. **Prosperity Dimension**: Evaluate industries based on fundamental indicators such as earnings growth and analyst expectations 2. **Trend Dimension**: Identify industries with strong upward momentum using technical indicators 3. **Crowdedness Dimension**: Measure the level of market participation and sentiment to avoid over-crowded industries 4. Combine these three dimensions into a scoring framework to rank industries and allocate weights accordingly [1][8][9] - **Model Evaluation**: The model has shown stable performance with consistent excess returns over benchmarks, making it a reliable tool for industry rotation [9] 2. Model Name: Industry Distress Reversal Model - **Model Construction Idea**: Focuses on industries in distress or recovering from past distress, with potential for long-term improvement in fundamentals and inventory cycles [17][99] - **Model Construction Process**: 1. Exclude industries with inventory and capital expenditure historical percentiles >80% 2. Exclude industries with gross margin and free cash flow historical percentiles <20% 3. Identify industries with improving inventory conditions and favorable macroeconomic signals 4. Allocate weights to industries meeting these criteria [17][99] - **Model Evaluation**: The model captures opportunities in recovering industries, delivering strong absolute and relative returns in backtests [99] 3. Model Name: PB-ROE Stock Selection Model - **Model Construction Idea**: Select stocks within industries based on valuation and profitability metrics, emphasizing high valuation-to-profitability efficiency [13][107] - **Model Construction Process**: 1. Use the industry allocation weights from the rotation model 2. Rank stocks within each industry by PB-ROE scores 3. Select the top 40% of stocks based on these scores 4. Weight selected stocks by their market capitalization and PB-ROE scores [13][107] - **Model Evaluation**: The model has demonstrated strong performance in both absolute and relative terms, with high information ratios and low drawdowns [107] --- Model Backtesting Results 1. Industry Rotation Model - Annualized excess return: 16.3% - Information ratio (IR): 1.74 - Maximum drawdown: -7.4% - Monthly win rate: 71% - 2023 excess return: 9.3% - 2024 excess return: 5.0% - 2025 YTD (as of April) excess return: 2.2% [9][96][97] 2. Industry Distress Reversal Model - Annualized excess return: 16.5% - Information ratio (IR): 1.76 - Maximum drawdown: -8.7% - 2023 absolute return: 13.0%, excess return: 16.6% - 2024 absolute return: 25.6%, excess return: 14.5% - 2025 YTD (as of April) excess return: 1.7% [99][101][102] 3. PB-ROE Stock Selection Model - Annualized excess return: 22.9% - Information ratio (IR): 2.02 - Maximum drawdown: -8.0% - Monthly win rate: 74% - 2022 excess return: 10.2% - 2023 excess return: 10.4% - 2024 absolute return: 14.6%, excess return: 4.6% - 2025 YTD (as of April) excess return: 1.0% [13][107][109] --- Quantitative Factors and Construction Methods 1. Factor Name: Crowdedness - **Factor Construction Idea**: Measures the level of market participation and sentiment to identify over-crowded industries [1][8] - **Factor Construction Process**: 1. Use trading volume, fund flows, and sentiment indicators to quantify crowdedness 2. Normalize the data and rank industries by crowdedness scores 3. Avoid industries with high crowdedness scores in allocation [1][8] 2. Factor Name: Inventory Cycle - **Factor Construction Idea**: Incorporates inventory levels and related metrics to identify industries with favorable inventory conditions [17][18] - **Factor Construction Process**: 1. Calculate inventory-to-sales ratios and historical percentiles 2. Identify industries with low inventory pressure and signs of restocking 3. Combine with macroeconomic indicators for final scoring [17][18] --- Factor Backtesting Results 1. Crowdedness Factor - Integrated into the industry rotation model, contributing to stable excess returns and risk control [1][8][9] 2. Inventory Cycle Factor - Integrated into the distress reversal model, enhancing its ability to capture recovery opportunities in industries [17][18][99]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [4]. Core Views - The company's performance in Q1 2025 met expectations, with revenue of 2.06 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year increase of 12.5% in core business revenue after excluding other businesses [1]. - The profitability indicators for Q1 2025 were strong, with a gross margin of 26.8% and a net margin of 14.0%, reflecting year-on-year increases of 4.2 percentage points and 2.9 percentage points, respectively [1]. - The company is benefiting from cost reduction and efficiency improvement initiatives, which are expected to continue driving performance [1][2]. Financial Performance Summary - Revenue is projected to grow from 8.074 billion yuan in 2023 to 15.039 billion yuan in 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 17.8% [3]. - Net profit is expected to increase from 816 million yuan in 2023 to 1.868 billion yuan in 2027, with a CAGR of about 20.4% [3]. - The earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to rise from 0.96 yuan in 2023 to 2.20 yuan in 2027 [3]. Business Development - The company is expanding its global footprint, particularly in the new energy transmission gear business, which is expected to enhance the value per vehicle significantly [2]. - Collaborations with leading domestic manufacturers in the smart home and automotive sectors are expected to drive growth in the smart actuator business [2]. - The company has established stable delivery of projects for international clients, which is anticipated to accelerate growth beyond the industry average [2].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [6] Core Views - The company reported a significant increase in revenue and profit, with 2024 revenue reaching 37.22 billion yuan, a year-on-year growth of 37.6%, and net profit attributable to shareholders at 4.12 billion yuan, up 126.5% [1] - The domestic tourism market recovery and the "old-for-new" policy have positively impacted sales, with total bus sales reaching 46,900 units in 2024, a 28.5% increase year-on-year [1] - The company is well-positioned to benefit from policy-driven domestic replacement demand and has expanded its presence in overseas markets, particularly in the high-end European market [3] Financial Performance - The company's net profit margin improved from 3.52% in 2022 to 11.16% in 2024, with net profit increasing from 768 million yuan to 4.15 billion yuan during the same period [2] - For Q1 2025, the company reported a revenue of 6.42 billion yuan, a decrease of 3% year-on-year, but net profit increased by 14.9% to 755 million yuan [1][2] - The forecast for net profit attributable to shareholders is 4.8 billion yuan in 2025, 5.5 billion yuan in 2026, and 6 billion yuan in 2027, with corresponding P/E ratios of 12, 11, and 10 times [3] Market Dynamics - The report highlights a strong growth in the domestic bus market, with sales of buses over 6 meters increasing by 33.4% in 2024, and a significant rise in exports of large and medium-sized buses [3] - The company has made strategic investments in new energy vehicles, with a notable increase in exports of 2,700 units, representing a year-on-year growth of 84.6% and a market share of 17.5% [3] - Recent policy changes, such as increased subsidies for new energy city buses, are expected to further boost demand for the company's products [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [4] Core Views - The company's Q1 2025 performance met expectations, with revenue of 2.06 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 12.5% when excluding other businesses [1] - The profitability indicators showed a gross margin of 26.8% and a net margin of 14.0%, reflecting improvements compared to the previous year [1] - The company is benefiting from cost reduction and efficiency enhancement initiatives, which are expected to continue driving performance [1][2] Financial Performance Summary - For 2023A, the company reported revenue of 8,074 million yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 18.1% [3] - The projected net profit for 2025E is 1,259 million yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 23.0% [3] - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2025E is estimated at 1.49 yuan, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 23.2 times [3] Business Segment Insights - The company's new energy transmission gear business is expected to see significant value increase per vehicle due to the rising penetration of coaxial reducers [2] - International projects with clients like Stellantis and Schaeffler are contributing to growth, with stable deliveries expected to exceed industry averages [2] - The smart actuator segment is expanding into various fields, including smart office and smart automotive applications, enhancing the company's growth trajectory [2]