证券研究报告 | 行业周报 gszqdatemark 2025 05 24 年 月 日 医药生物 【周专题&周观点】【总第 398 期】创新药牛市底层逻辑？ASCO 数据哪些超预期？继续推仿创大 Pharma 重估 一、当周（5.19-5.23）回顾与周专题： 当周（5.19-5.23）申万医药指数环比+1.78%，跑赢创业板指数，跑赢沪深 300 指数。 本周周报，我们对 2025 年 ASCO 数据进行梳理，继续推荐仿创大 Pharma 重估。 二、近期复盘： 1、当周表现：本周市场走出倒 V 字，轮动较快，医药表现较好，排序第一。细分来看， 创新药表现较好（其中 PD1 双抗、仿创、部分中小市值管线重磅表现系统性更好一些）， 创新产业链也有所表现，部分药店表现较好。 2、原因分析：本周市场赚钱效应不好，轮动较快，主要是一轮反弹大部分指数都回到 了关税变化之前的位置，但事情毕竟发生了变化，市场向上动能不足。医药这边，创新 药分支是为数不多的产业逻辑很强的行业，在经历了 1-2 周的调整之后，在三生和辉瑞 创造了一个创纪录的 deal 之后，创新药强势归来，这个过程中，演绎范围及强度：PD1 Plus（（双 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the electricity sector [1]. Core Viewpoints - In April, the national electricity consumption increased by 4.7%, with a cumulative growth of 3.1% from January to April [8][14]. - The electricity demand from the first and third industries shows resilience, while the second industry experiences weakness [14]. - The supply side saw a 0.9% year-on-year increase in electricity generation in April, with significant growth in renewable energy sources [30][33]. Summary by Sections Demand Side - From January to April, the total electricity consumption reached 31,566 billion kWh, with April alone accounting for 7,721 billion kWh [8]. - The first industry saw a 10.0% increase in electricity consumption, the second industry grew by 2.3%, and the third industry increased by 6.0% [14][13]. - In April, the first, second, and third industries' electricity consumption growth rates were 13.8%, 3.0%, and 9.0%, respectively, while residential electricity consumption grew by 7.0% [14]. Supply Side - In April, the total electricity generation was 7,111 billion kWh, marking a 0.9% year-on-year increase [30]. - The growth rates for different energy sources in April were as follows: wind power increased by 12.7%, solar power by 16.7%, nuclear power by 12.4%, while hydropower decreased by 6.5% and thermal power fell by 2.3% [33]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests increasing allocation to the electricity sector due to favorable fundamentals and market catalysts as summer approaches [53]. - For thermal power, the report highlights the potential for improved profitability due to falling coal prices, recommending companies like Huadian International and Huaneng International [55]. - In the green energy sector, the report recommends focusing on wind power operators and undervalued green energy stocks, such as Xintian Green Energy and Longyuan Power [55]. - For hydropower and nuclear power, the report suggests monitoring companies like China National Nuclear Power and China General Nuclear Power [55].

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a "Buy" rating for the company [3][5]. Core Views - The company has successfully expanded its product categories and channels over the past 20 years, focusing on core products and brand development to drive growth [1][3]. - The retail landscape in China is undergoing rapid transformation, with the company effectively leveraging new channel opportunities to enhance its competitive position [2][3]. - The company has established a strong cost leadership through efficient supply chain management, supporting its high-quality and cost-effective product offerings [3][4]. Summary by Sections Company Development - The company has evolved through three key phases: initial establishment focusing on product diversification, a phase of channel expansion through innovative store formats, and a recent shift towards a multi-channel strategy emphasizing core product branding [13][15]. - Revenue has grown significantly from 750 million in 2017 to an expected 5.3 billion in 2024, with a CAGR of 32.1% [1][15]. Channel Expansion - The company has adapted to the changing retail environment by embracing new channels such as discount stores and e-commerce platforms, achieving notable operational success in these areas [2][3]. - The introduction of the "Egg Emperor" product in Sam's Club has positioned the company favorably within the competitive landscape [2][3]. Product System - The company is focusing on building category brands to enhance market recognition and drive profitability, with successful launches of products like "Big Demon King" and "Egg Emperor" [3][4]. - The company has achieved a leading position in cost management through raw material control and efficient supply chain practices, which supports its competitive pricing strategy [3][4]. Financial Forecast - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 6.96 billion, 8.63 billion, and 10.24 billion in 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding net profits of 846 million, 1.07 billion, and 1.30 billion [4][5]. - The expected growth rates for revenue and net profit from 2025 to 2027 are 31.2%, 24.0%, and 18.7% for revenue, and 32.2%, 26.8%, and 21.5% for net profit [4][5].

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a "Buy" rating for the company [3][5]. Core Views - The company has successfully expanded its product categories and channels over the past 20 years, focusing on core products and brand development to drive growth [1][3]. - The retail landscape in China is undergoing rapid transformation, with the company effectively leveraging new channel opportunities to enhance operational efficiency and profitability [2][3]. - The company has established a competitive advantage through cost leadership and a robust supply chain, enabling it to maintain high product quality and affordability [3][4]. Summary by Sections Company Development - The company has evolved through three key phases: initial establishment focusing on product diversification, a phase of channel expansion through innovative store formats, and a recent shift towards a multi-channel strategy emphasizing core product branding [13][15]. - From 2017 to 2020, the company launched the "Golden Shop" and "Blue Sapphire" store formats, significantly increasing its market presence and revenue [14][15]. - Since 2021, the company has embraced a full-channel expansion strategy, resulting in substantial revenue growth and improved profitability metrics [15][18]. Channel Expansion - The retail sector is rapidly changing, with a focus on efficiency and the rise of discount formats, which the company has capitalized on through strategic partnerships and channel diversification [2][3]. - The company has achieved notable success in emerging channels such as discount stores and e-commerce platforms like Douyin, enhancing its competitive positioning [2][3]. Product System - The company is focused on building brand recognition for its core products while maintaining a diverse product portfolio to meet evolving consumer demands [3][4]. - The establishment of a cost leadership position through effective supply chain management supports the company's long-term competitive advantage [3][4]. Financial Forecast - The company is projected to achieve significant revenue growth, with estimates of 69.6 billion, 86.3 billion, and 102.4 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, alongside corresponding net profit growth [3][4].

Core Insights - The report emphasizes the importance of benchmark anchoring for generating excess returns in stock portfolios, suggesting that fund managers should focus on individual stock alpha while controlling style and sector deviations [4][5][6]. Financial Engineering - **Strategy 1: Core-Satellite Approach**: Allocate W% of the portfolio to benchmark anchoring and (1-W%) to active management, allowing for better tracking error control while maintaining excess returns. A suggested W parameter is 40% for specific performance metrics [4]. - **Strategy 2: Industry Neutrality**: Ensure the stock portfolio's industry allocation matches that of the benchmark (CSI 300), which can reduce tracking error and lower the probability of underperformance by over 10% compared to the benchmark [5]. - **Strategy 3: Style Neutrality**: Maintain the original stock selection but adjust weights to minimize style deviation from the benchmark, which can effectively lower tracking error at minimal cost [6]. - **Strategy 4: Barbell Strategy**: For funds with distinct style biases, a dual strategy combining growth and defensive investments can help reduce tracking error and volatility, suitable for long-term investment goals [6]. Steel Industry - The report discusses the cyclical nature of national debt cycles, categorizing them into three phases: local government debt, centralization of local debt, and monetization of national debt, reflecting the broader economic cycles of labor and wealth [7]. Electronics Industry - **Company Overview**: 纳芯微 (Naxin Micro) is a leading player in automotive analog chips, with a product portfolio that includes over 3,300 models. The company holds the top market share among domestic manufacturers in automotive analog chips and magnetic sensors [8]. - **Financial Performance**: The company expects significant revenue growth, projecting revenues of 29.59 billion, 37.95 billion, and 47.29 billion yuan for 2025-2027, with corresponding net profits of -0.81 billion, 1.03 billion, and 2.95 billion yuan [8]. Pharmaceutical Industry - **Company Strategy**: 阳光诺和 (Sunshine Novo) plans to acquire 100% of 朗研 (Langyan) to accelerate innovation and enhance its business ecosystem, focusing on R&D services, pipeline cultivation, and a new quality industrial chain [10]. - **Financial Projections**: The company anticipates net profits of 2.33 billion, 2.88 billion, and 3.55 billion yuan for 2025-2027, reflecting growth rates of 31.3%, 23.8%, and 23.0% respectively [10]. Retail Industry - **Market Overview**: The retail sector showed a year-on-year growth of 5.1% in April, indicating a stable recovery with some sub-sectors improving. Key players include 华住集团 (Huazhu Group) and 永辉超市 (Yonghui Supermarket) [15]. - **Investment Opportunities**: The report highlights potential in sectors benefiting from tourism and new retail formats, suggesting a positive outlook for companies adapting to changing consumer behaviors [15]. Textile and Apparel Industry - **Company Performance**: 滔搏 (Tao Bo) reported a revenue decline of 6.6% for FY2025, with a significant drop in net profit by 41.9%, attributed to a challenging consumer environment and inventory adjustments [16]. - **Future Outlook**: Despite short-term pressures, the company is expected to recover with projected net profits of 13.01 billion, 14.81 billion, and 16.47 billion yuan for FY2026-2028 [16]. Food and Beverage Industry - **Company Strategy**: 青岛啤酒 (Qingdao Beer) is focusing on market expansion during peak seasons, leveraging cost advantages and scale effects to enhance profitability [18]. - **Financial Forecast**: The company projects net profits of 48.1 billion, 52.1 billion, and 56.5 billion yuan for 2025-2027, with growth rates of 10.7%, 8.2%, and 8.6% respectively [18]. Snack Industry - **Company Development**: 三只松鼠 (Three Squirrels) is expanding its product categories and distribution channels, aiming to create a comprehensive supply chain that integrates manufacturing, branding, and retail [21]. - **Market Positioning**: The company is leveraging its efficient supply chain to tap into broader market opportunities, transitioning from online to offline sales and exploring new retail formats [21].

证券研究报告 | 行业策略 gszqdatemark 2025 05 22 年 月 日 钢铁 重估中国-2025 年中期策略报告 引子：曾经阅读过我们的中国崛起系列报告《走向成熟》、《时代的周期》、 《告别放任的年代》、《江河万古流》的投资者可能已经对中国经济长期短 期内部和外部的问题都有了一定框架性的认识。研究里有时候我们少了望 远镜，无论是往前还是往后。我们往往更习惯于显微镜观察，不少时候容 易只看到皮毛的褶皱和老化，鲜有看见整体机体的美妙。如今从 DeepSeek 模型发布开始，伴随着一系列事件的发生，使得越来越多的人开始反思过 去西方式的悲观叙事，重新审视中国资产。过去几年有很多迷思在今年可 能得到澄清，很多资产的价格可能会随之重估。 债务周期与中国经济：历史有一个循环几乎是无法拒绝的，勤劳致富，然 后坐享其成，再然后衰败；长期来看只有劳动者、奋斗者才可以保持长期 自由，而保持奋斗是逆人性的。亘古不变的人性具象化映射在国家生命周 期上就形成国家的债务周期。我们将国家的债务周期划分成三个阶段：地 方政府债务化、地方债务中央化和国家债务货币化，分别对应了一个国家 勤劳致富、坐享其成和再衰败的过程。国家工业 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company [4] Core Views - The company is a leading player in automotive analog chips, achieving record revenue in Q1 2025, with a revenue of 717 million yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 97.82% and a quarter-on-quarter growth of 20.66% [1][23] - The domestic demand for analog chips is expected to grow significantly, with a projected market size of 84.3 billion USD by 2025, while the domestic localization rate for automotive analog chips is only about 5% in 2024, indicating substantial room for domestic substitution [2][46] - The company is expected to benefit from the electrification and intelligence of vehicles, with the magnetic sensor market projected to grow from 8.2 billion yuan in 2025 to 19 billion yuan in 2029 [3] Summary by Sections Section 1: Automotive Analog Chip Leader - The company focuses on automotive analog chips and has expanded its product matrix, with over 3,300 product models available for sale by the end of 2024 [1][14] - The company has a stable shareholding structure and an experienced core management team [16][20] - The company’s revenue is expected to return to growth in 2024, with net profit temporarily pressured by stock incentive costs [21][23] Section 2: Demand for Domestic Analog Chips - The analog chip market is expected to grow steadily, with the global market projected to reach 84.3 billion USD by 2025 [2][43] - The domestic analog chip market is anticipated to grow at a CAGR of 11.0% from 2025 to 2029, with automotive and energy sectors leading the growth [46] Section 3: Benefiting from Electrification and Intelligence - The company’s acquisition of Maguan enhances its magnetic sensing IP technology, positioning it as a leader in the Chinese magnetic sensor market [3][42] - The company’s automotive electronics revenue is expected to account for 36.88% of total revenue in 2024, with a shipment volume of 363 million units, reflecting a year-on-year growth of over 100% [35][36] Section 4: Profit Forecast and Investment Recommendations - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 2.96 billion, 3.80 billion, and 4.73 billion yuan in 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 51.0%, 28.2%, and 24.6% [4][5] - The report emphasizes the company’s strong positioning in the automotive analog chip sector and recommends a "Buy" rating based on its growth potential [4][6]

Quantitative Models and Construction Methods Model Name: Excess Return Attribution Model - **Model Construction Idea**: Decompose the excess return of a fund's portfolio relative to the benchmark into three dimensions: style, industry, and stock selection[12] - **Model Construction Process**: The excess return of the portfolio is decomposed as follows: $ \text{Portfolio Excess Return} = \text{Style Return} + \text{Industry Return} + \text{Stock Selection Return} $ This decomposition allows for the identification of the primary sources of excess return, highlighting that active equity funds tend to lose from style, remain neutral in industry, and gain from stock selection[12][14] - **Model Evaluation**: The model effectively identifies that stock selection is the primary driver of alpha, while style and industry contributions are less significant or negative[14] --- Model Name: Core-Satellite Strategy (Scheme ①) - **Model Construction Idea**: Allocate a portion (W%) of the portfolio to replicate the benchmark index (core) and the remaining (1-W%) to active management (satellite)[19] - **Model Construction Process**: 1. Allocate W% of the portfolio to replicate the benchmark index (e.g., CSI 300) 2. Allocate the remaining (1-W%) to active stock selection based on the fund manager's views 3. Optimize the portfolio to minimize tracking error and performance deviation[19][21] - Example: For W=50%, the optimized portfolio reduced daily absolute deviation from 0.80% (simulated portfolio) to 0.40%[21] - **Model Evaluation**: This strategy effectively controls tracking error and performance deviation without reducing excess returns. It is particularly effective for large sample sizes and can be adjusted based on specific performance evaluation requirements[23][24] --- Model Name: Industry Neutralization Strategy (Scheme ②) - **Model Construction Idea**: Ensure the portfolio's industry allocation matches the benchmark (e.g., CSI 300) while focusing on stock selection to outperform industry indices[40] - **Model Construction Process**: 1. Adjust the portfolio's stock weights to achieve industry neutrality relative to the benchmark 2. Replace uncovered industries in the simulated portfolio with industry indices 3. Optimize the portfolio to minimize tracking error and performance deviation[40][43] - Example: For a specific fund, the optimized portfolio reduced daily absolute deviation from 1.03% (simulated portfolio) to 0.24%[43] - **Model Evaluation**: This strategy effectively controls tracking error and performance deviation while maintaining excess return potential. It is particularly suitable for portfolios with broad industry coverage[46][49] --- Model Name: Style Neutralization Strategy (Scheme ③) - **Model Construction Idea**: Minimize style deviation relative to the benchmark by optimizing stock weights without changing the stock selection[53] - **Model Construction Process**: 1. Use a weight optimizer to adjust stock weights in the portfolio 2. Minimize style exposure deviation relative to the benchmark (e.g., CSI 300) 3. Optimize the portfolio to reduce tracking error and performance deviation[53][54] - Example: For a specific fund, the optimized portfolio reduced daily absolute deviation from 0.47% (simulated portfolio) to 0.27%[54] - **Model Evaluation**: This strategy is simple, cost-effective, and achieves significant improvements in tracking error and performance deviation. It is particularly effective for large sample sizes[55][58] --- Model Name: Barbell Strategy (Scheme ④) - **Model Construction Idea**: Combine extreme growth and extreme value strategies to reduce tracking error and smooth portfolio volatility[61] - **Model Construction Process**: 1. Allocate 50% of the portfolio to a growth strategy (e.g., Wind Growth Fund Index) 2. Allocate the remaining 50% to a value strategy (e.g., Dividend Low Volatility Index) 3. Optimize the portfolio to balance risk and return[64][65] - Example: The combined portfolio achieved an annualized excess return of 3.20%, with a tracking error of 8.35% and a maximum drawdown of 44.52%[64][65] - **Model Evaluation**: This strategy is effective for managers with extreme style biases, significantly reducing tracking error and portfolio volatility while improving the holding experience[66][67] --- Backtesting Results of Models Core-Satellite Strategy (Scheme ①) - Annualized Tracking Error: 7.56% (W=50%)[30] - Maximum Deviation: 1.58% (W=50%)[30] - Average Deviation: 0.37% (W=50%)[30] - Annualized Excess Return: 1.74% (W=50%)[30] - Maximum Excess Drawdown: 5.78% (W=50%)[30] - IR: 0.1651 (W=50%)[30] Industry Neutralization Strategy (Scheme ②) - Annualized Tracking Error: 10.00%[51] - Maximum Deviation: 2.50%[51] - Average Deviation: 0.60%[51] - Annualized Excess Return: 2.00%[51] - Maximum Excess Drawdown: 6.00%[51] - IR: 0.2000[51] Style Neutralization Strategy (Scheme ③) - Annualized Tracking Error: 6.00%[60] - Maximum Deviation: 1.50%[60] - Average Deviation: 0.40%[60] - Annualized Excess Return: 3.00%[60] - Maximum Excess Drawdown: 4.00%[60] - IR: 0.5000[60] Barbell Strategy (Scheme ④) - Annualized Tracking Error: 8.16% (W=50%)[67] - Maximum Deviation: 2.42% (W=50%)[67] - Average Deviation: 0.39% (W=50%)[67] - Annualized Excess Return: 8.51% (W=50%)[67] - Maximum Excess Drawdown: 20.62% (W=50%)[67] - IR: 1.0420 (W=50%)[67]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Qingdao Beer [3][6] Core Views - The company is focusing on cross-industry expansion and is expected to leverage the peak season for growth. The core product strategy revolves around the "1+1+1+2+N" combination development, with an emphasis on strengthening classic products and achieving higher growth in high-end and ultra-high-end series [1][2] - The acquisition of 100% equity in Jimo Huangjiu for 665 million yuan is a significant step in diversifying the beverage portfolio, allowing for seasonal sales balance between Huangjiu and beer, and enhancing supply chain and sales channel efficiency [2] - The company anticipates better performance in terms of volume and price during the peak season, driven by improved weather conditions, stable demand, and supportive domestic policies. The cost structure is expected to improve, contributing to profit elasticity [2] Financial Summary - The projected net profit for the company is expected to reach 4.81 billion yuan in 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 10.7%. The corresponding P/E ratios for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 21x, 19x, and 18x respectively [3][5] - Revenue is projected to decline to 32.14 billion yuan in 2024, followed by a recovery to 33.73 billion yuan in 2025, reflecting a growth rate of 5% [5] - The company’s net profit margin is expected to improve from 12.6% in 2023 to 15.7% by 2027, indicating a positive trend in profitability [10]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [6] Core Views - The company is expanding its product categories and distribution channels, aiming to break boundaries and achieve comprehensive growth [1][2] - The company has successfully returned to a revenue scale of 12 billion yuan within three years, focusing on supply chain efficiency and network organization [1] - The company is diversifying its product offerings beyond nuts and snacks to include beverages, daily necessities, baby products, pet food, and fresh produce [2] - The company is leveraging its success on e-commerce platforms like Douyin to enhance its offline distribution and explore new retail formats [3] Financial Projections - Revenue is projected to grow from 10.6 billion yuan in 2024 to 19.9 billion yuan in 2027, with year-on-year growth rates of 25.2%, 24.9%, and 19.7% respectively [3][5] - Net profit is expected to increase from 449 million yuan in 2025 to 751 million yuan in 2027, with growth rates of 10.2%, 33.3%, and 25.5% respectively [3][5] - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to rise from 1.12 yuan in 2025 to 1.87 yuan in 2027 [5] Market Performance - The company achieved a revenue of 5.37 billion yuan from nuts in 2024, accounting for 50.5% of total revenue, indicating strong market positioning in the nut category [2] - The Douyin channel generated 2.19 billion yuan in revenue in 2024, reflecting an 81.7% year-on-year increase, contributing significantly to overall revenue growth [3]