市场短期补涨后或有回档 证券研究报告 | 金融工程 gszqdatemark 2025 05 04 年 月 日 量化周报 市场短期补涨后或有回档。节前（4.28-4.30），大盘震荡下行，上证指数 全周收跌 0.49%。在此背景下，大部分指数迎来了一波 30 分钟级别回调。 节日期间，海外及港股市场均出现了不同程度的上涨，我们认为受此影响， A 股市场短期或将出现补涨，当下我们认为，经历了贸易战的冲击后，市 场的底部区间已然探明，市场补涨完成后将会选择方向，我们仍倾向于市 场再次回档，具体原因如下：1、本轮回调从高点到低点指数调整幅度均已 超过 10%，有些指数甚至超过 20%，调整幅度基本充分；2、大部分规模 指数的日线级别下跌只走了 1 浪结构，时间和结构不够充分；3、28 个中 信一级行业中，仍有 8 个行业处于日线级别上涨中，而处于日线下跌的 20 个行业中，9 个行业日线下跌只走了 1 浪结构，结构不够充分。中期来看， 上证指数、上证 50、沪深 300、中证 500、深证成指、创业板指、科创 50 纷纷确认周线级别上涨，而且在日线上只走出了 1 浪结构，中期牛市刚刚 开始；此外，已有 21 个行业 ...

Group 1 - The report emphasizes a continued oscillating market pattern influenced by U.S.-China tensions, liquidity conditions, and policy shifts, with a focus on the importance of policy effectiveness in driving market momentum [1][9][10] - The report suggests prioritizing investments in sectors with independent industrial trends, such as domestic AI, smart vehicles, and robotics, while also considering sectors related to domestic consumption and real estate as policy support emerges [2][10] Group 2 - The report recommends specific stocks, including New Steel Co., which is expected to benefit from external empowerment and high-end product structure, projecting significant profit recovery [3][11] - Zhongyan Dadi is highlighted for its competitive edge in geotechnical engineering, particularly in new infrastructure projects, with expected profit growth driven by nuclear power and water conservancy projects [13][14] - Yinlong Co. is noted for its rapid increase in market share and profitability in the prestressed steel and track slab sectors, with a projected compound annual growth rate of over 30% in profits [17][18] - Daikin Heavy Industries is recognized for its strong performance in the offshore wind sector, with significant revenue growth from exports and a focus on new energy projects [19][20] - Tianshan Aluminum is expected to leverage its integrated layout for cost advantages, with projected net profits of 4.8 billion to 6 billion yuan from 2025 to 2027 [22][25] - New Yisheng is projected to see continued growth driven by the demand for 800G products, with net profits expected to reach 6.89 billion to 12.02 billion yuan from 2025 to 2027 [26][27] - Shanxi Fenjiu is anticipated to maintain stable growth in revenue and profits, with a focus on high-end product lines [29][31] - Yanjing Beer is expected to benefit from seasonal demand and strong performance of its flagship product U8, with projected net profits increasing significantly [33][34] - Bairun Co. is positioned for accelerated growth due to its whisky product line and pre-mixed drinks, with net profits expected to rise from 860 million to 1.12 billion yuan from 2025 to 2027 [35][36] - Huhua Co. is projected to experience significant growth driven by the booming civil explosives industry and expansion into new markets [37][38] - Weir Shares is noted for achieving record revenue in Q1 2025, driven by the acceleration of automotive intelligence and high-end smartphone products [40]

Quantitative Models and Construction Methods - **Model Name**: Timing Radar Six-Dimensional Framework **Model Construction Idea**: The model evaluates equity market performance through a multi-dimensional perspective, incorporating liquidity, economic fundamentals, valuation, capital flows, technical signals, and crowding dimensions. These are aggregated into four categories: "Valuation Cost-Effectiveness," "Macro Fundamentals," "Capital & Trend," and "Crowding & Reversal," generating a composite timing score within the range of [-1, 1][1][6][8] **Model Construction Process**: The model selects 21 indicators across the six dimensions and aggregates them into the four categories mentioned above. Each category is scored based on its respective indicators, and the final composite score is calculated as the weighted average of these categories[1][6][8] **Model Evaluation**: The model provides a comprehensive and systematic approach to market timing by integrating multiple dimensions, offering a balanced view of market conditions[1][6][8] Quantitative Factors and Construction Methods - **Factor Name**: Monetary Direction Factor **Factor Construction Idea**: This factor assesses the direction of monetary policy by analyzing changes in central bank policy rates and short-term market rates over the past 90 days[10] **Factor Construction Process**: - Calculate the average change in central bank policy rates and short-term market rates over the past 90 days - If the factor value > 0, monetary policy is deemed accommodative; if < 0, it is deemed restrictive[10] **Factor Evaluation**: Effectively captures the directional stance of monetary policy, providing insights into liquidity conditions[10] - **Factor Name**: Monetary Strength Factor **Factor Construction Idea**: Based on the "interest rate corridor" concept, this factor measures the deviation of short-term market rates from policy rates[13] **Factor Construction Process**: - Calculate the deviation as DR007/7-year reverse repo rate - 1 - Smooth and standardize the deviation using z-scores - Assign scores based on thresholds: <-1.5 SD indicates accommodative conditions (score = 1), >1.5 SD indicates restrictive conditions (score = -1)[13] **Factor Evaluation**: Provides a quantitative measure of short-term liquidity conditions relative to policy rates[13] - **Factor Name**: Credit Direction Factor **Factor Construction Idea**: Measures the transmission of credit from banks to the real economy using medium- and long-term loan data[14] **Factor Construction Process**: - Calculate the monthly value of medium- and long-term loans - Compute the 12-month incremental change and its year-over-year growth - Compare the factor value to its level three months ago: an increase indicates a positive signal (score = 1), while a decrease indicates a negative signal (score = -1)[14] **Factor Evaluation**: Captures the directional flow of credit, reflecting economic support from the banking sector[14] - **Factor Name**: Credit Strength Factor **Factor Construction Idea**: Measures whether credit data significantly exceeds or falls short of expectations[18] **Factor Construction Process**: - Calculate the deviation of new RMB loans from their median forecast, normalized by the forecast's standard deviation - Assign scores based on thresholds: >1.5 SD indicates a positive surprise (score = 1), <-1.5 SD indicates a negative surprise (score = -1)[18] **Factor Evaluation**: Quantifies the strength of credit data relative to expectations, offering insights into market surprises[18] - **Factor Name**: Growth Direction Factor **Factor Construction Idea**: Based on PMI data, this factor evaluates the trend in economic growth over the past 12 months[20] **Factor Construction Process**: - Compute the 12-month moving average of PMI data (including manufacturing and non-manufacturing indices) - Calculate the year-over-year change and compare it to its level three months ago: an upward trend indicates a positive signal (score = 1), while a downward trend indicates a negative signal (score = -1)[20] **Factor Evaluation**: Effectively captures the directional trend in economic growth, providing a macroeconomic perspective[20] - **Factor Name**: Growth Strength Factor **Factor Construction Idea**: Measures whether economic growth data significantly exceeds or falls short of expectations[22] **Factor Construction Process**: - Calculate the deviation of PMI data from its median forecast, normalized by the forecast's standard deviation - Assign scores based on thresholds: >1.5 SD indicates a positive surprise (score = 1), <-1.5 SD indicates a negative surprise (score = -1)[22] **Factor Evaluation**: Quantifies the strength of economic growth data relative to expectations, offering insights into market surprises[22] - **Factor Name**: Inflation Direction Factor **Factor Construction Idea**: Evaluates the trend in inflation levels, which influence monetary policy constraints[25] **Factor Construction Process**: - Calculate the weighted average of smoothed CPI and raw PPI year-over-year changes - Compare the factor value to its level three months ago: a downward trend indicates a positive signal (score = 1), while an upward trend indicates a negative signal (score = -1)[25] **Factor Evaluation**: Provides insights into inflationary trends and their potential impact on monetary policy[25] - **Factor Name**: Inflation Strength Factor **Factor Construction Idea**: Measures whether inflation data significantly exceeds or falls short of expectations[26] **Factor Construction Process**: - Calculate the deviation of CPI and PPI data from their median forecasts, normalized by the forecast's standard deviation - Compute the average of these deviations to form the factor value - Assign scores based on thresholds: <-1.5 indicates a positive signal (score = 1), >1.5 indicates a negative signal (score = -1)[26] **Factor Evaluation**: Quantifies the strength of inflation data relative to expectations, offering insights into market surprises[26] Factor Backtesting Results - **Monetary Direction Factor**: Current score = -1[10] - **Monetary Strength Factor**: Current score = -1[13] - **Credit Direction Factor**: Current score = -1[14] - **Credit Strength Factor**: Current score = 1[18] - **Growth Direction Factor**: Current score = 1[20] - **Growth Strength Factor**: Current score = 0[22] - **Inflation Direction Factor**: Current score = 1[25] - **Inflation Strength Factor**: Current score = 1[26]

Investment Rating - The report indicates a cautious outlook for the banking sector, with expectations of continued narrowing of interest margin declines due to improved cost management on the liability side [5]. Core Insights - The overall revenue and profit growth rates for listed banks in Q1 2025 were -1.7% and -1.2%, respectively, showing a widening decline compared to 2024 [4]. - Net interest income decreased by 1.7% year-on-year, influenced by factors such as loan repricing and lower new loan rates, but the decline in interest margins is expected to continue to narrow [4][5]. - The overall asset quality remains stable, with a non-performing loan ratio of 1.23% and a provision coverage ratio of 238% [4]. Summary by Sections 1. Performance Overview - Listed banks' overall revenue and profit growth rates for Q1 2025 were -1.7% and -1.2%, respectively, with declines expanding by 1.8 percentage points and 3.5 percentage points compared to 2024 [4]. - The net interest income saw a year-on-year decline of 1.7%, attributed to factors like loan repricing and intensified competition [4]. 2. Revenue Breakdown - Fee and commission income for listed banks decreased by 0.7% year-on-year, with the decline rate narrowing by 8.7 percentage points compared to 2024 [4]. - Other non-interest income fell by 3.2% year-on-year, primarily due to significant fluctuations in the bond market affecting fair value changes [4]. 3. Asset Quality - The non-performing loan ratio stood at 1.23%, slightly down by 1 basis point from the end of Q4 2024, while the provision coverage ratio was 238%, showing a slight decrease of 2 percentage points from the previous year [4]. 4. Future Outlook - The narrowing trend in interest margin declines is expected to continue, supported by improved management of liability costs and stable asset quality [5]. - The report anticipates that the overall profit growth for the year will maintain a trend of quarterly improvement [5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [4]. Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 2.16 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 17.07%. However, the net profit attributable to the parent company was 153 million yuan, a decrease of 15.87% year-on-year. Notably, the revenue for Q4 2024 was 787 million yuan, up 51.65% year-on-year, and the net profit for the same quarter was 84 million yuan, exceeding the total net profit of the first three quarters [1]. - In Q1 2025, the company reported a revenue of 574 million yuan, a significant increase of 109.02% year-on-year, with a net profit of 62 million yuan, marking a staggering increase of 1104.89% year-on-year [1]. - The company anticipates substantial growth in revenue from data centers and semiconductor temperature control solutions [2]. Financial Performance Summary - In 2024, the company's liquid temperature control equipment revenue reached 1.466 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 20.65%, with a gross margin of 21.22%, down 3.93 percentage points year-on-year. The revenue from energy storage temperature control was approximately 1.176 billion yuan, up 30% year-on-year [2]. - The company has expanded its client base in the semiconductor manufacturing equipment sector, including notable clients such as Northern Huachuang and Jing Sheng Machinery [2]. - The financial projections for the company indicate expected net profits of 288 million yuan, 425 million yuan, and 608 million yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 87.6%, 47.7%, and 43.1% [4][5]. Key Financial Metrics - The company's revenue for 2023 was 1.845 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 83.1%. The projected revenue for 2025 is 3.404 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 57.6% [5]. - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2024 is projected to be 0.91 yuan, with a significant increase to 1.70 yuan in 2025 [5]. - The net profit margin for 2024 is expected to be 7.1%, with projections of 8.5% and 9.1% for 2025 and 2026, respectively [10].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for key coal companies such as China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal, and Xinji Energy, while recommending "Hold" for Pingmei Shenma [10]. Core Viewpoints - The coal price adjustment cycle, which began from the historical peak in Q4 2021, is nearing its end, with expectations of a market recovery as prices approach their bottom [2]. - The coal industry is currently experiencing significant profit declines, with Q1 2025 profits for major coal enterprises down by approximately 47.7% year-on-year [1][6]. - The report emphasizes the importance of understanding the fundamental attributes of the industry and maintaining confidence during this challenging period [2]. Market Overview - As of April 30, 2025, the North Port thermal coal price is reported at 657 CNY/ton, down 111 CNY/ton from the beginning of the year, reflecting a return to early 2021 levels [9][10]. - The report notes that the coal market is under pressure due to weak demand, with significant price declines observed across various coal types [1][7]. - The report highlights that the coal industry is in a critical phase of price exploration, with expectations of a seasonal demand rebound [3][9]. Key Sector Analysis - **Thermal Coal**: The market remains weak, with prices under pressure from high inventory levels and low demand from power plants [11][23]. - **Coking Coal**: The market is stable but weak, with supply slightly increasing and demand primarily driven by essential needs [49][62]. - **Profitability**: The profitability of coal companies has been severely impacted, with many reporting significant year-on-year declines in net profits [22][6]. Investment Strategy - The report recommends focusing on state-owned enterprises like China Shenhua and China Coal Energy, as well as companies showing signs of recovery such as Qinfa [10]. - It suggests that companies with strong performance metrics are likely to see better stock performance, highlighting firms like Xinji Energy and Shaanxi Coal [10].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [4]. Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 2.16 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 17.07%. However, the net profit attributable to the parent company was 153 million yuan, a decrease of 15.87% year-on-year. Notably, the revenue for Q4 2024 was 787 million yuan, up 51.65% year-on-year, and the net profit for the same quarter was 84 million yuan, exceeding the total net profit of the first three quarters combined [1]. - In Q1 2025, the company reported a revenue of 574 million yuan, a significant increase of 109.02% year-on-year, and a net profit of 62 million yuan, marking a staggering increase of 1104.89% year-on-year [1]. - The company anticipates substantial growth in revenue from data centers and semiconductor temperature control solutions [2]. Financial Performance Summary - In 2024, the company's liquid temperature control equipment revenue reached 1.466 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 20.65%, with a gross margin of 21.22%, down 3.93 percentage points year-on-year. The revenue from energy storage temperature control was approximately 1.176 billion yuan, up 30% year-on-year [2]. - The company has expanded its client base in the semiconductor manufacturing equipment sector, including notable clients such as Northern Huachuang and Jing Sheng Machinery [2]. - The financial projections for the company indicate expected net profits of 288 million yuan, 425 million yuan, and 608 million yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 87.6%, 47.7%, and 43.1% [4][5]. Key Financial Metrics - The company's revenue for 2023 was 1.845 billion yuan, with a projected revenue of 3.404 billion yuan for 2025, indicating a growth rate of 57.6% [5]. - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2024 is projected to be 0.91 yuan, with an expected increase to 1.70 yuan in 2025 [5]. - The net profit margin for 2024 is projected to be 7.1%, with expectations of improvement in subsequent years [10].

证券研究报告 | 朝闻国盛 gszqdatemark 2025 05 06 年 月 日 朝闻国盛 喜忧并存—五一大事 9 大看点 今日概览 重磅研报 【宏观】喜忧并存—五一大事 9 大看点——20250505 【策略】5 月策略观点与金股推荐：兼顾产业趋势与政策期待—— 20250505 【金融工程】市场短期补涨后或有回档——20250504 【金融工程】择时雷达六面图：拥挤度&反转维度分数显著上升—— 20250504 【固定收益】五月的机会——20250505 【固定收益】跨月资金变化有限，关注节后资金面——流动性和机构行 为跟踪——20250505 【固定收益】小长假有哪些关注点——20250504 【汽车】财报总结：终端折扣率高位运行，降本控费释放企业盈利能力 ——20250505 【银行】3 月重点省市信贷投放情况如何？——20250505 【银行】银行研究框架及 24A&25Q1 业绩综述：负债成本改善力度加大， 息差降幅有望继续收窄——如何看财务报表、经营情况、识别风险—— 20250505 【汽车】2024&2025Q1 总结：板块景气度上行，龙头盈利能力修复—— 20250505 【建筑材料 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a rating of "Increase" for the industry [5] Core Insights - The MCP (Model Context Protocol) opens new possibilities for function calls, driving the further improvement of the AI agent system [10][11] - Major internet companies are integrating MCP to develop agents, with both vertical and general agents expected to continue upgrading their functionalities [20] - The report suggests focusing on companies involved in AI agents and computing power, highlighting a range of specific companies across various sectors [41] Summary by Sections MCP and AI Agents - MCP is an open protocol that allows AI models to connect with different tools, similar to a USB-C port for AI applications, facilitating the integration of various data sources and tools [10][11] - The advantages of MCP include simplified development, flexibility, real-time response, security, and scalability [13][14] Development of Vertical and General Agents - Traditional functional apps are evolving into agents, enhancing user experiences with new functionalities [21] - Examples include: - Feizhu's AI agent "Ask Me" for personalized travel planning [22][24] - Tongcheng's AI agent "Chengxin AI" for comprehensive travel services [25][26] - DingTalk's AI assistant for office tasks [28] - Feishu's intelligent partner for personalized user assistance [29] - General agents are emerging, such as Quark, which aggregates multiple AI functionalities [30][31] and Baidu's Xinxiang, which utilizes multi-agent collaboration for complex tasks [32] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends attention to companies in the AI agent space, including Kingsoft Office, Kingdee International, and others in the computing power sector like Cambricon and Alibaba [41][42]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for key companies in the textile and apparel sector, including Anta Sports, Tabo, and others, indicating a positive outlook for their performance in 2025 [5][14][30]. Core Insights - Adidas reported a 13% year-on-year revenue growth in Q1 2025, reaching €6.153 billion, with a significant operating profit increase of 82% to €610 million [1][18]. - The report emphasizes the importance of focusing on companies with strong fundamentals and quality brands, anticipating performance recovery and valuation increases in 2025 [4][27]. - The textile and apparel sector is expected to benefit from supportive national policies and increased participation in sports activities, leading to resilient growth for related brands [4][27]. Summary by Sections Adidas Performance - In Q1 2025, Adidas' revenue grew by 13% to €6.153 billion, with a gross margin increase of 0.9 percentage points to 52.1% and an operating profit surge of 82% to €610 million [1][18]. - The company maintains its guidance for 2025, expecting high single-digit revenue growth, with double-digit growth for the Adidas brand [1][18]. Regional Performance - North America saw a 2.8% revenue increase to €1.184 billion, while Europe experienced a 14% growth to €1.986 billion, with Adidas brand revenues growing by 13% and 16% respectively [2][21]. - The Greater China region reported a 12.7% revenue increase to €1.029 billion, with Adidas brand revenue up by 14%, marking it as Adidas' third-largest market globally [2][24]. - Emerging markets and Latin America showed robust growth, with revenues increasing by 23.4% to €870 million and 26.2% to €698 million respectively, with Adidas brand revenues growing by 25% and 27% [3][24]. Industry Outlook - The report highlights a stable global demand for apparel, with a focus on companies that can optimize their competitive positions amid changing market dynamics [28]. - It recommends companies like Shenzhou International and Huayi Group for their attractive valuations and growth potential, with projected P/E ratios of 11x and 15x for 2025 respectively [28][30]. - The report also notes the importance of product differentiation and brand strength in the jewelry sector, with companies like Chow Tai Fook and Chow Hong Ki expected to perform well [28].