Investment Rating - The report maintains a recommendation for the consumer services industry [2] Core Viewpoints - The integration pace in the cultural tourism industry is accelerating, with significant mergers and acquisitions indicating a shift from fragmented growth to resource optimization and brand specialization [2] - The acquisition of Junting Hotel by Hubei Cultural Tourism Group for approximately 1.5 billion yuan highlights the trend of state-owned enterprises and leading private companies enhancing their core competitiveness through asset integration [6] - The tourism sector is increasingly recognized as a vital driver of domestic demand and consumption, with a strategic role in local economic development [6] Industry Basic Data - The consumer services industry comprises 55 listed companies with a total market capitalization of 498.8 billion yuan and a circulating market value of 457.1 billion yuan [3] Relative Index Performance - The consumer services sector experienced a decline of 0.65% this week, while the overall market indices showed mixed results, with the CSI 300 index increasing by 1.28% [4][9] Important Announcements - Junting Hotel has become a subsidiary of Hubei Cultural Tourism Group, marking a significant shift in ownership and control [33] - Meituan reported a revenue of 95.5 billion yuan for Q3, with a year-on-year growth of 2%, but faced substantial losses in its core local business segment [34] - Yadu Group achieved a revenue of 2.628 billion yuan in Q3, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 38.4% [34] Future Shareholder Meetings - Several companies in the consumer services sector have scheduled shareholder meetings in December, including ST United and Xi'an Tourism [36]

宏观研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 【每周经济观察】第 49 期 出口高频维持韧性 ❖ 每周经济观察： （一）景气向上 1、外贸：港口集装箱吞吐量同比维持高位。截至 11 月 30 日，我国港口集装 箱吞吐量环比-0.3%，上周环比为+5.4%，四周同比微幅回落至 9.6%，上周为 10%，10 月 26 日四周同比为 6.6%。 2、耐用品消费：乘用车零售周度增速转正，但月度增速转负。截至 11 月 30 日当周，乘用车零售同比增速+2%，前值-7%。乘联分会发布初步统计数据， 11 月全国乘用车市场零售同比-7%。10 月全月同比为+5.8%。 3、地产：住宅销售降幅缩窄，二手房价格暂时止跌。我们统计的 67 个城市， 12 月前 5 日，商品房成交面积同比为-26%。11 月同比为-34%。10 月同比为- 26%。11 月 24 日当周，二手房挂牌价，一线和全国均持平。今年以来，一线 城市二手房挂牌价累计下跌 5.1%，全国累计下跌 5.5%。 4、价格：国内外大宗品价格普涨，农产品价格普涨。本周南华综合指数、RJ/CRB 商品价格指数分别上涨 1%、1.5%。蔬菜批价上涨 2.4%，鸡蛋批价上涨 1. ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report indicates that spring market rallies are often unrelated to the previous year's main themes and tend to favor small-cap growth stocks, with a historical tendency for cyclical and technology manufacturing sectors to lead [10][12][19] - Historical data shows that prior to spring rallies, the market often experiences noticeable declines or fluctuations, with an average increase of 14.2% in the Shanghai Composite Index during the rally period, while the preceding one and three months typically see declines of 6.4% and 3.9% respectively [15][19] - The report emphasizes that policy expectations are the primary driving force behind spring rallies, with significant attention on the Central Economic Work Conference at the end of the year to set the policy direction for the following year [3][19][20] Group 2 - The report identifies that during the past 16 years of spring rallies, sectors such as non-ferrous metals, chemicals, computers, and machinery have consistently ranked among the top performers, highlighting their high elasticity and sensitivity to policy changes [2][10][14] - Defensive or low-elasticity sectors like banking, utilities, food and beverage, real estate, and retail have shown weaker performance during these rallies, indicating a higher risk appetite in the market during such periods [2][10] - The report suggests that the current market adjustment may have reached its limit, with indicators showing a recovery in industry differentiation and a potential end to the high-low cut phenomenon, particularly in sectors like telecommunications, non-ferrous metals, and electronics [4][21]

Group 1: Credit Strategy - The report emphasizes the need to monitor redemption disturbances and suggests seizing the value of coupon assets during high points [2][11] - Current yields for 1-year products range from 1.73% to 1.82%, with spreads within 20 basis points, which is lower by 10-16 basis points compared to the lowest point in 2024, indicating low cost-effectiveness [2][32] - For 2-3 year products, yields are between 1.87% and 2.12%, with spreads from 17 to 35 basis points, still having 1-8 basis points of room compared to 2024's lowest spreads [2][32] - The 4-5 year products show yields from 2.03% to 2.31%, with spreads between 23 and 47 basis points, which have compressed slightly due to institutional configurations, enhancing cost-effectiveness [2][32] - Long-term credit products (5 years and above) offer coupon advantages but test the stability of liabilities, with institutions needing to be cautious in the current volatile market [3][34] Group 2: Market Overview - The credit bond market has seen a general rise in yields, with a divergence in credit spreads, influenced by new fund sales regulations and policy expectations ahead of major meetings [11][12] - Short and medium-term pure bond fund net values have declined, with a cumulative drop of 1.71 basis points and 11.82 basis points respectively over the week [12][18] - The report notes that institutional investors have been net sellers of bonds, with a total net sell-off of 22.477 billion yuan, particularly in the 7-10 year category, while insurance and wealth management products continue to increase their credit bond allocations [22][24] Group 3: Key Policies and Events - The report highlights the optimization of merger note mechanisms by the China Interbank Market Dealers Association, which broadens the support for mergers and enhances funding flexibility [4][36] - The restructuring of state-owned enterprises in Shanxi province aims to improve strategic decision-making efficiency and clarify regulatory boundaries [4][37] - In Chongqing, several state-owned enterprises have consolidated financial equity through stock transfers, leading to more effective management of financial resources [4][37]

债券研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 【债券周报】 存单周报（1201-1207）：财政助益下，跨年 压力或有限 债券周报 2025 年 12 月 07 日 华创证券研究所 证监会审核华创证券投资咨询业务资格批文号：证监许可（2009）1210 号 证券分析师：周冠南 电话：010-66500886 邮箱：zhouguannan@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360517090002 证券分析师：宋琦 电话：010-63214665 邮箱：songqi@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360523080002 相关研究报告 《【华创固收】政策双周报（0530-0612）：买断 式逆回购前置操作，中美经贸磋商原则上达成框 架 》 2025-06-12 《【华创固收】评级披露仍较缓慢，关注权益轮 动向转债传导——可转债周报 20250609》 2025-06-09 《【华创固收】央行开始买债了吗？——债券周 报 20250608》 2025-06-08 《【华创固收】存单周报（0602-0608）：资金预 期有所缓和，关注存单配置价值》 2025-06-08 《【华创固收】关注震荡市场利差被动走阔的加 仓机会— ...

证 券 研 究 报 告 汽车行业周报（20251201-20251207） 行业研究 汽车 2025 年 12 月 07 日 推荐（维持） 板块触底有望提前，关注 26 年 beta 反弹机会 华创证券研究所 | 证券分析师：张程航 | 证券分析师：夏凉 | 证券分析师：李昊岚 | 联系人：张睿希 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 电话：021-20572543 | 电话：021-20572532 | 邮箱：lihaolan@hcyjs.com | 邮箱：zhangruixi@hcyjs.com | | 邮箱：zhangchenghang@hcyjs.com | 邮箱：xialiang@hcyjs.com | 执业编号：S0360524010003 | | | 执业编号：S0360519070003 | 执业编号：S0360522030001 | | | 本周我们更新了明年年度策略，相较于前几年，2026 年确实市场一致预期相对较高，我 们观点简言之：1）销量展望没那么悲观，所以会有 beta 反弹机会；2）整车投资依然以 个股为主，零部件以新产业为主。 4Q 汽车基本面低于预期，这 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" investment rating for the banking sector, indicating a positive outlook for the industry in the near term [1]. Core Insights - The positioning of the digital RMB is expected to advance, with significant potential in the payment sector. The People's Bank of China (PBOC) is working on optimizing the management system for digital RMB, which may evolve from a cash-like payment instrument (M0) to broader monetary categories (M1, M2) [2][8]. - Infrastructure development for digital RMB is progressing, with the establishment of international and operational centers in Shanghai and Beijing, respectively. As of September 2025, the cumulative transaction amount in pilot areas reached 14.2 trillion yuan, with 2.25 billion personal wallets opened [3][8]. - The banking sector is expected to see a systematic recovery in valuations in 2026, transitioning from a defensive to a growth-oriented investment logic. Key investment themes include high dividend yields and low valuations, particularly as risk-free interest rates decline [9]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The banking sector comprises 42 listed companies with a total market capitalization of approximately 1.15 trillion yuan, representing 13.04% of the market [4]. - The average daily trading volume for A-shares was 10,583.60 billion yuan, reflecting a 0.65% increase from the previous week [8]. Performance Metrics - The absolute performance of the banking sector over the past month is 5.0%, with a relative performance of 2.8% compared to the benchmark [5]. - The report highlights that the banking index underperformed the CSI 300 index by 2.46 percentage points during the week [8]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on three main investment lines: 1. State-owned banks and major commercial banks like China Merchants Bank. 2. Quality joint-stock banks and city commercial banks with improving net interest margins and credit costs. 3. City commercial banks benefiting from regional policies and showing significant performance potential [9]. - Specific banks recommended for investment include China Merchants Bank, CITIC Bank, and several city commercial banks such as Chengdu Bank and Chongqing Bank [9][10].

证 券 研 究 报 告 【金工周报】（20251201-20251205） 指数择时多空交织，后市或中性震荡 本周回顾 本周市场普遍上涨，上证指数单周上涨 0.37%，创业板指单周上涨 1.86%。 A 股模型： 短期：成交量模型所有宽基指数中性。特征龙虎榜机构模型中性。特征成交量 模型看空。智能算法沪深 300 模型看多，智能算法中证 500 模型看多。 金融工程 中期：涨跌停模型中性。上下行收益差模型所有宽基指数看多。月历效应模型 中性。 长期：长期动量模型看多。 综合：A 股综合兵器 V3 模型看空。A 股综合国证 2000 模型看空。 港股模型： 中期：成交额倒波幅模型看多。恒生指数上下行收益差模型中性。 本周行业指数涨跌互现，涨幅前五的行业为：有色金属、通信、国防军工、非 银行金融、机械，跌幅前五的行业为：传媒、房地产、食品饮料、纺织服装、 农林牧渔。从资金流向角度来说，除煤炭、建材外所有行业主力资金净流出， 其中基础化工、计算机、电子、传媒、医药主力资金净流出居前。 本周股票型基金总仓位为 97.29%，相较于上周增加了 70 个 bps，混合型基金 总仓位 86.86%，相较于上周减少了 80 ...

- The report introduces a "Total Heat Index" indicator, which is defined as the sum of browsing, self-selection, and click counts of individual stocks, normalized by their market share on the same day, and then multiplied by 10,000. The value range of this indicator is [0, 10,000][7] - The "Total Heat Index" is aggregated at broader levels such as broad-based indices, industries, and concepts, serving as a proxy variable for "sentiment heat" to track market sentiment[7] - A simple rotation strategy is constructed based on the weekly heat change rate (MA2) of broad-based indices. The strategy involves buying the broad-based index with the highest heat change rate on the last trading day of each week. If the "Other" group has the highest change rate, the strategy remains in cash. The annualized return of this strategy since 2017 is 8.74%, with a maximum drawdown of 23.5%, and a return of 31.4% in 2025[13][16] - For concept-level heat, two portfolios are constructed: 1. A "TOP" portfolio selects the top 10 stocks with the highest total heat from the five concepts with the largest heat change rates each week, excluding the bottom 20% of stocks by market capitalization 2. A "BOTTOM" portfolio selects the bottom 10 stocks with the lowest total heat from the same concepts. The "BOTTOM" portfolio has achieved an annualized return of 15.71%, a maximum drawdown of 28.89%, and a return of 40.2% in 2025[29][31] - The heat change rate (MA2) of the "Other" group increased by 1.54% compared to the previous week, while the CSI 1000 index had the lowest change rate, decreasing by 1.98%[16][18] - The report highlights that high-heat concepts often experience rapid price adjustments due to behavioral factors, with the highest-attention stocks in these concepts reacting most quickly in the short term[29]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report In the first week of December, the industrial production rhythm slightly accelerated. The strengthened expectation of interest rate cuts and the weakening of the US dollar boosted the prices of risk assets. The improvement in the supply and demand of domestic investment products was limited. In terms of inflation, the increase in vegetable prices widened, and food prices accelerated their upward trend. In terms of exports, container shipping prices weakened, but the demand for coal transportation in the Pacific market strengthened, corresponding to the supplement of imported coal for winter storage. In terms of investment, supported by the cost side such as coal, cement prices stabilized. The apparent demand for steel weakened, and inventory destocking accelerated, indicating a relatively obvious production contraction. In the real estate sector, the transactions of new and second - hand houses both seasonally slowed down at the beginning of the month. For the bond market, the fundamental supply - demand pattern remained unchanged. The positive signals in the PMI price were worth continuous tracking. Next week, the focus should be on the fiscal and monetary statements of important meetings [3][33]. Summary According to the Directory 1. Inflation - related: Food price increases widened - Food prices accelerated their upward trend. From December 1st to 5th, the average wholesale price of pork in China decreased by 1.1% week - on - week, with the decline widening again. Vegetable prices increased by 2.3% week - on - week, with the increase continuing to expand. The 200 - index of agricultural product wholesale prices and the wholesale price index of basket products increased by 1.5% and 1.7% week - on - week respectively [7]. 2. Import and export - related: Container shipping prices marginally weakened - The CCFI and SCFI indices both declined further. This week, the CCFI index decreased by 0.6% week - on - week, and the SCFI decreased by 0.4% week - on - week. The transportation demand on the European route was basically stable, with freight rates slightly declining, and the freight rates on the Mediterranean route increased by about 3%. The demand on the North American route grew weakly, with poor supply - demand balance. The freight rates from Shanghai Port to the West and East coasts of the United States decreased by 5% and 4.7% respectively. - In terms of port transportation volume, from November 24th to 30th, the container throughput and cargo throughput of ports decreased by 0.3% and increased by 8.4% week - on - week respectively. The monthly average year - on - year growth rates in November were + 10.2% and + 5.7% respectively, stronger than the performance in October. - The BDI and CDFI indices accelerated their rise. This week, the demand for coal transportation from Indonesia in the Panamax market slightly decreased, with reduced trading activity and slightly adjusted freight rates. However, the freight rates in the Pacific market for Capesize vessels soared, with the daily rent reaching a new high since April 2024. Australian miners continued to make inquiries, and the transportation demand for the loading period in mid - to - late December was high, and the long - distance ore routes followed the upward trend [9]. 3. Industry - related: Production and operation slightly improved - Coal price decline widened. This week, the price of thermal coal (Q5500) at Qinhuangdao Port decreased by 3.0% week - on - week, with the decline widening. In terms of demand, the daily consumption of power plants in inland provinces remained weak year - on - year. Terminal enterprises mainly fulfilled long - term coal contracts and had low acceptance of high - priced market coal. The daily consumption of coastal power plants slightly decreased. In terms of price, some mining areas completed their production targets at the end of the month and compressed production capacity. Coupled with environmental protection and safety inspections, the growth of domestic coal production was limited, and the coal prices at the origin showed a strong trend. However, the advantage of imported coal became apparent, effectively making up for the supply gap, and the overall port coal prices remained stable. - The increase in rebar prices widened. The spot price of rebar (HRB400 20mm) increased by 1.1% week - on - week, compared with a 0.6% increase in the previous week. In terms of inventory, the inventory of major steel products decreased by 2.9% week - on - week, and that of rebar decreased by 6.2% week - on - week, with the destocking rhythm continuing to accelerate. The apparent demand for building materials decreased by 5.7% week - on - week, and that for rebar decreased by 4.6% week - on - week, with the weakening accelerating, indicating that the supply contraction was relatively greater. - The asphalt operating rate remained at a low level compared to the same period. This week, the operating rate of asphalt plants increased by 0.1 percentage points week - on - week to 27.9%, a year - on - year decrease of 1.0%. The rush - work demand gradually decreased, and the asphalt shipment volume was at a low level compared to the same period in previous years. - The increase in copper prices widened. This week, the average prices of Yangtze River Non - ferrous copper and LME copper increased by 2.5% and 4.3% week - on - week respectively. The expectation of interest rate cuts increased, the US dollar index weakened, and the prominent supply - demand gap pattern promoted the accelerated rise of copper prices. - The glass futures price decreased week - on - week. The spot production and sales of glass performed well, the industry inventory was rapidly destocked. Affected by the market production contraction, the purchasing enthusiasm of downstream customers was boosted, the shipment speed in many places accelerated, the market sentiment of price support strengthened, and the demand side mainly replenished inventory appropriately, with the quoted prices rising and falling [16][21]. 4. Investment - related: Sales seasonally declined at the beginning of the month - Cement prices stopped falling and stabilized. This week, the weekly average of the cement price index increased by 0.02% week - on - week, showing signs of stabilization. The continuously strong coal prices supported the production cost, but it was the traditional off - season in the north, and the demand in the south was low due to inventory pressure. It was difficult for manufacturers to fully implement price increases, and the overall cement prices maintained a weak and volatile trend. - New - house transactions slightly declined at the beginning of the month. From November 28th to December 4th, the transaction area of new houses in 30 cities was 2.118 million square meters, a 0.6% decrease week - on - week and a 36% decrease year - on - year, with the decline continuing to widen. The sales momentum of new houses at the beginning of the month declined. - Second - hand house transactions continued to weaken. From last Friday to this Thursday, the transaction area of second - hand houses decreased by 2.7% week - on - week and 39.6% year - on - year, with the week - on - week decline widening, mainly due to the high - base effect [24][25]. 5. Consumption: The retail sales of passenger cars in November decreased by 7% year - on - year - From November 1st to 30th, the retail sales of the national passenger car market reached 2.263 million vehicles, a 7% decrease compared with the same period last year and a 1% increase compared with the previous month. - Crude oil prices continued to rise. As of December 5th, the prices of Brent crude oil and WTI crude oil increased by 0.9% and 2.6% week - on - week respectively, with the increase of the latter widening. The strengthened expectation of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, the weakening of the US dollar index, the OPEC +'s policy of suspending production increases, and the failure to reach an agreement in the US - Russia meeting boosted oil prices [27].