Investment Rating - The report upgrades the investment rating of the company to "Strong Buy" with a target price of 80 CNY per share [2][8]. Core Views - The company continues to experience high growth in the electric two-wheeler segment, with H1 2025 revenue reaching 11.74 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 76.1%, and net profit attributable to the parent company at 1.24 billion CNY, up 108.5% year-on-year [2][8]. - The performance in Q2 2025 also exceeded expectations, with revenue of 6.63 billion CNY, a 61.5% increase year-on-year, and net profit of 790 million CNY, a 70.8% increase year-on-year [2][8]. - The electric two-wheeler business is entering a phase of performance realization, supported by rapid channel expansion and a strong product lineup targeting young consumers [8]. Financial Summary - Total revenue projections for 2025 are estimated at 20.02 billion CNY, with a year-on-year growth rate of 41.0% [4]. - Net profit attributable to the parent company is projected to reach 2.05 billion CNY in 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 89.1% [4]. - Earnings per share (EPS) are forecasted to be 28.50 CNY for 2025, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 21 [4][8]. - The company’s gross margin improved to 31.0% in Q2 2025, with a net profit margin of 11.8%, both showing year-on-year increases [8]. Business Performance - The electric two-wheeler segment generated revenue of 3.96 billion CNY in Q2 2025, marking an 80.6% increase year-on-year, driven by store expansion and high-end product sales [8]. - The self-branded retail scooter segment achieved revenue of 930 million CNY, a 27.6% increase year-on-year, supported by industry growth and strong product competitiveness [8]. - The company’s flagship lawn mower product line has received positive recognition in overseas markets, indicating potential for future growth [8].

行业研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 非银金融行业数据周报（20250728-20250801） 推荐（维持） 保险板块跑赢大盘，市场活跃度边际下滑 重点公司盈利预测、估值及投资评级 | | | | EPS（元） | | | PE（倍） | | PB（倍） | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 简称 | 股价（元） | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | 2025E | 评级 | | 中国太保 | 37.10 | 4.87 | 4.99 | 5.10 | 7.61 | 7.44 | 7.28 | 1.08 | 推荐 | | 中国人寿 | 40.74 | 3.09 | 3.19 | 3.25 | 13.17 | 12.79 | 12.54 | 2.25 | 推荐 | | 广发证券 | 19.34 | 1.45 | 1.55 | 1.68 | 13.36 | 12.46 | 11.50 | 1.17 | 推荐 | | 中信证券 | 28.75 | 1.82 | ...

Group 1: Economic Fundamentals - In August, the focus will be on the verification of policy effects, with new policy financial tools expected to boost credit and investment recovery[1] - The "anti-involution" narrative is expected to lead to moderate price recovery, although short-term trends remain uncertain[1] - External factors indicate a potential 90-day extension of the exemption period, with reduced uncertainty in tariff policies, but the downward trend in exports is expected to continue[1] Group 2: Liquidity and Market Dynamics - Historical data shows that August is a month with potential liquidity fluctuations, but risks are limited under current monetary policy targets[2] - The liquidity gap in August is projected to be around 1.8 trillion, with a central tendency likely to remain around 1.5%[2] - The supply of government bonds is expected to accelerate, with net financing projected between 1.5 to 1.6 trillion[3] Group 3: Institutional Behavior - Demand for bonds may weaken due to increased supply and limited institutional buying power, with a supply-demand index for August expected to be at 59%, significantly lower than the second quarter average[3] - The market is likely to experience structural pressure due to the imbalance between supply and demand[3] Group 4: Market Strategy - The bond market is entering the second phase of a "three-step" strategy, with the 10-year government bond expected to fluctuate between 1.65% and 1.75%[3] - Investors are advised to be flexible and consider timely profit-taking in response to key market events and policy announcements[3]

IPO：港股募资额同比高增，A 股受理提速 ❑ 事项：2025 年 1-7 月港股 IPO 募资总额已超过 2022-2024 年各年全年水平，A 股 IPO 受理加速，证券公司投行业务收入或有望修复。 港股：2025 年 1 至 7 月共有 52 只新股上市/YoY+30%，集资总额 1275 亿港元 /YoY+604%，达到 2021 年以来新高，并已超越 2024 全年的 881 亿港元（详见 图表 1：2018-2025 年港股市场首发募资总额一览）。其中于 5 月 20 日上市的 宁德时代（3750.HK）募资 410 亿港元，占总募资额的 32.1%。 A 股：根据 Wind 统计，今年 6 月 IPO 受理量达 148 家，占 1-7 月总量的 84% （详见图表 2：2025 年 1-7 月 IPO 受理数量）。6 月是上半年财报截止的关键 节点，企业若未在 6 月 30 日前提交申请，需额外更新财务数据，因此，大量 企业选择在 6 月申报，形成集中受理现象。对比来看，2024 年 6 月 IPO 受理 数量仅 29 家（详见图表 3：历年 6 月 A 股 IPO 受理数量），2025 年受理 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for CITIC Heli [1] Core Views - The successful completion of the first material transport by the 2-ton eVTOL from the offshore platform marks a significant milestone for low-altitude logistics applications, indicating potential for scalable use [7] - The strategic cooperation agreement between CITIC Heli, CITIC Jinzu, and Fengfei Aviation includes an intention to purchase 100 large eVTOL aircraft, which enhances the company's growth prospects in the eVTOL sector [2] Financial Summary - Total revenue projections for CITIC Heli are as follows: - 2024: 2,163 million - 2025: 2,378 million - 2026: 2,634 million - 2027: 2,923 million - Year-on-year growth rates are projected at 9.8% for 2024, 9.9% for 2025, 10.8% for 2026, and 11.0% for 2027 [3] - Net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted as: - 2024: 303 million - 2025: 360 million - 2026: 400 million - 2027: 436 million - Year-on-year growth rates for net profit are expected to be 26.8% in 2024, 18.7% in 2025, 11.1% in 2026, and 9.0% in 2027 [3] - Earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be: - 2024: 0.39 - 2025: 0.46 - 2026: 0.52 - 2027: 0.56 [3] Company Data - Total shares outstanding: 77,577.01 million - Total market capitalization: 170.90 billion - Debt-to-asset ratio: 22.85% - Book value per share: 6.98 [4]

Group 1: Policy Overview - The State Council announced the implementation of personal consumption loan interest subsidy policy on July 31, 2023[2] - At least three regions, including Sichuan, Chongqing, and Hangzhou's Yuhang District, have initiated personal consumption loan interest subsidies since 2024[2] Group 2: Subsidy Details - Subsidy standards are generally around 1.5%, with Sichuan at 1.5%, Chongqing initially at 1.5% (later raised to 2%), and Yuhang District not exceeding 1.5%[4][13] - The current market consumption loan rates are above 3%, with few options below this threshold[4][13] Group 3: Funding and Process - Funding primarily comes from local government finances, with Sichuan's subsidy shared at an 80:20 ratio between provincial and municipal levels[5][15] - The process involves residents signing loan contracts, submitting materials for subsidy applications, and undergoing multiple levels of review[4][14][16] Group 4: Impact Assessment - As of April 2025, Sichuan has disbursed nearly 60 million yuan in subsidies, impacting over 40 billion yuan in consumption loans and benefiting approximately 27,000 individuals[7][17] - The net increase in personal consumption loans in Sichuan for 2024 was 1,335 billion yuan, with the subsidy effect estimated at around 3%[7][17]

Economic Indicators - The Huachuang Macro WEI index rose to 6.35% as of July 27, up from 5.84% on July 20, marking an increase of 0.52 percentage points[2] - The land premium rate increased to 9% for the week ending July 27, with a four-week average of 6.9%, compared to 5.47% in June[11] Consumer Trends - Subway ridership in 27 cities averaged 81.53 million daily in July, roughly unchanged from last year, while domestic flight numbers increased by 0.8% year-on-year to 14,700 flights in early August[9] - Retail sales of passenger vehicles grew by 5% year-on-year as of July 27, down from 17% previously, indicating a slowdown in durable goods consumption[9] Trade and Shipping - Port container throughput fell by 6.5% week-on-week as of July 27, with a four-week cumulative year-on-year growth of 5.6%[24] - U.S. imports showed a decline, with a year-on-year drop of 20.5% in late July, and imports from China decreased by 25.6%[25] Commodity Prices - Prices for upstream photovoltaic materials and lithium carbonate have significantly dropped, with rebar prices down by 2.9% and lithium carbonate futures down by 13.7%[3] - The South China Glass Index fell by 19.1%, indicating a broader decline in commodity prices amid reduced "involution" sentiment[41] Debt and Financing - New special bond issuance reached 2.82 trillion yuan, achieving 64% of the annual target, faster than the previous year[5] - The Ministry of Finance reported six cases of local government hidden debt, emphasizing the need to manage and mitigate hidden debt risks[53]

Group 1 - The report indicates that August marks the second phase of the "three-step" strategy for the bond market, with a focus on timely adjustments and profit-taking opportunities [6][5][4] - The fundamental outlook for August suggests a verification period for policy effects, with new policy financial tools expected to boost credit and investment recovery [15][16][17] - The "anti-involution" narrative is expected to influence pricing and production, although short-term trends remain uncertain [21][22][25] Group 2 - Liquidity conditions are expected to remain supportive, with the central bank's actions likely to mitigate potential funding disruptions during the high payment month of August [31][32][38] - Historical data shows that August typically experiences significant government bond issuance, which may lead to increased net financing [40][41] - The supply-demand structure in the bond market is under pressure due to increased supply and limited demand from institutions [2][3][4] Group 3 - The report highlights the importance of monitoring external factors, such as trade negotiations and tariff policies, which may impact market sentiment and bond performance [25][26][27] - The anticipated issuance of new policy financial tools is expected to accelerate investment demand, particularly in infrastructure projects [16][17][19] - The report emphasizes the need for flexible trading strategies, particularly in response to key events and market sentiment shifts [6][5][4]

Macro Policy - The macro policy emphasizes the release of existing policy effects, advocating for a more proactive fiscal policy and moderately loose monetary policy[1] - The meeting did not reiterate the previous mention of "extraordinary counter-cyclical adjustments" from April[1] - The Ministry of Finance has reported six cases of hidden debt accountability, stressing the importance of preventing and resolving hidden debt risks as a political task[1] Fiscal Policy - The fiscal policy is tightening regarding debt management, with a focus on actively and prudently resolving local government debt risks and prohibiting new hidden debts[2] - The Ministry of Finance has emphasized strict accountability for those responsible for hidden debts, reinforcing the crackdown on illegal activities related to new hidden debts[2] Monetary Policy - The monetary policy has not mentioned "timely interest rate cuts" but emphasizes maintaining ample liquidity and promoting a decline in overall financing costs[3] Consumption and Investment - The meeting highlighted the importance of boosting service consumption and implementing special actions to stimulate consumption, particularly in cultural, tourism, and healthcare sectors[4] - Investment strategies include high-quality promotion of "two重" construction and the establishment of new policy financial tools to enhance investment returns[4] Market Competition - The meeting called for deepening the construction of a unified national market and optimizing market competition order, with a focus on regulating chaotic competition among enterprises[5] - Specific measures include conducting cost investigations in industries with significant "involution" competition issues[5]

证 券 研 究 报 告 交通运输行业周报（20250728-20250803） 一、聚焦：继续强调"反内卷"下电商快递投资机会 1、 以史为鉴："反内卷"在快递行业是否有效且能否持续推进？ 1）从 21 年经验看，义乌地区率先涨价并逐步扩散。根据邮管局数据计算，21 年 9 月义乌地区单票价格 2.94 元，环比 8 月 2.64 元上涨 0.3 元，价格同比由 8 月的-16%迅速收窄至-1%；此后，在 21 年四季度，价格仍表现坚挺，10 月 义乌地区单票收入同比回正至+2%，11-12 月同比+8%，2022 年 1-8 月依然保 持同比正增。而从全国范围看，申通、韵达、圆通单票收入环比持续提升，可 推测涨价落地并逐步扩散。21 年 9 月三家环比分别上涨 0.16、0.09 和 0.15 元， 到 11 月三家相较于 8 月分别上涨 0.51、0.33、0.46 元（当中包含旺季季节性 涨幅）。同比看，圆通 21 年 8 月实现单票同比转正，21 年 11 月三家均实现价 格同比正增。2）2021 年-22 年的经验看，行业具备价格-盈利提升的传导潜力。 最为显著的，如圆通从 21Q3 的单票扣非净利 ...