证 券 研 究 报 告 房地产行业周报（2025 年第 36 周） 京沪深陆续放松限购，新房二手房成交环比 推荐（维持） 下降 行业研究 房地产 2025 年 09 月 09 日 华创证券研究所 证券分析师：单戈 | % | 1M | 6M | 12M | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 绝对表现 | 4.2% | 5.8% | 31.1% | | 相对表现 | -4.7% | -7.5% | -7.1% | -1% 19% 38% 58% 24/09 24/11 25/01 25/04 25/06 25/09 2024-09-09~2025-09-08 房地产 沪深300 邮箱：shange@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360522110001 证券分析师：许常捷 邮箱：xuchangjie@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360525030002 联系人：杨航 邮箱：yanghang@hcyjs.com 行业基本数据 | | | 占比% | | --- | --- | --- | | 股票家数(只) | 107 | 0.01 | | 总市值(亿元) | 12,336.23 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for Xinbao Co., Ltd. with a target price of 17.60 yuan [2][8]. Core Insights - Xinbao Co., Ltd. reported a revenue of 7.8 billion yuan for H1 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 1.0%. The net profit attributable to the parent company was 540 million yuan, up 22.8% year-on-year [2][8]. - The company's core business shows resilience, with kitchen and home appliance revenues of 5.28 billion yuan and 1.47 billion yuan, respectively. The overseas market revenue was 6.07 billion yuan, up 2.5% year-on-year, while domestic revenue was 1.73 billion yuan, down 3.8% year-on-year [8]. - The gross margin for H1 2025 was 22.1%, an increase of 0.3 percentage points year-on-year, indicating stable performance due to cost reduction and efficiency improvement measures [8]. - The net profit margin reached 7.5% in Q2 2025, with a significant improvement in investment income, reducing losses from foreign exchange options [8]. Financial Summary - Total revenue projections for Xinbao Co., Ltd. are estimated at 16.82 billion yuan for 2024, increasing to 20.61 billion yuan by 2027, with corresponding year-on-year growth rates of 14.8%, 5.8%, 8.6%, and 6.6% [4][9]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is projected to grow from 1.05 billion yuan in 2024 to 1.39 billion yuan in 2027, with growth rates of 7.7%, 6.6%, 14.1%, and 8.5% respectively [4][9]. - Earnings per share (EPS) are expected to rise from 1.30 yuan in 2024 to 1.71 yuan in 2027, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio decreasing from 13 to 10 over the same period [4][9].

证 券 研 究 报 告 杠杆资金净流入高位回落 ——流动性&交易拥挤度&投资者温度计周报 2025年9月9日 证券分析师：姚佩 执业编号：S0360522120004 邮箱：yaopei@hcyjs.com 联系人：朱冬墨 邮箱：zhudongmo@hcyjs.com 本报告由华创证券有限责任公司编制 卖的出价或询价。本报告所载信息均为个人观点，并不构成对所涉及证券的个人投资建议。 请仔细阅读PPT后部分的分析师声明及免责声明。 @2021 华创 版权所有 核心结论 证 券 研 究 报 告 • 资金流动性： 证监会审核华创证券投资咨询业务资格批文号：证监许可（2009）1210 号 2 1）资金供给端大幅收窄，杠杆资金净流入大幅下降但仍处于近三年高位，偏股型公募新发持续回暖； 2）资金需求端股权融资与产业资本净减持仍处历史中位，南向资金连续三月周均百亿以上净流入，累计净流入超 3700亿。 • 交易拥挤度：以过去四周成交额占比/市值占比（较全A）作为衡量主题行业交易热度的表征指标来看，本周热度 分位（下同）上行行业主要为：新能源车+21pct至28%、光伏+20pct至53%、电子+13pct至63%；下行行 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for Changan Automobile, expecting the stock to outperform the benchmark index by over 20% in the next six months [3][18]. Core Views - Changan Automobile's total sales in August reached 234,000 units, representing a year-on-year increase of 25% and a month-on-month increase of 11%. The company anticipates a steady growth in sales driven by three strategic initiatives [2][3]. - The forecast for Changan's self-owned passenger vehicle sales from 2025 to 2027 is 1.84 million, 2.19 million, and 2.38 million units, with year-on-year growth rates of 10%, 19%, and 9% respectively [3]. - The revenue estimates for 2025-2027 have been adjusted downwards to 168.2 billion, 202.6 billion, and 218 billion yuan, with corresponding year-on-year growth rates of 5%, 20%, and 8% [3]. - The net profit estimates for the same period have been revised upwards to 7.2 billion, 10.3 billion, and 11.4 billion yuan, with price-to-earnings ratios of 17x, 12x, and 11x respectively [3]. Financial Summary - The total revenue for 2025 is projected at 168.2 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 5.3% [4]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company for 2025 is estimated at 7.2 billion yuan, reflecting a slight decrease of 1% year-on-year [4]. - Earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is expected to be 0.73 yuan, with a price-to-earnings ratio of 17x [4]. - The company’s total market capitalization is approximately 1230.34 billion yuan, with a circulating market value of 1228.85 billion yuan [5]. Sales Performance - In August, Changan's sales were driven by strong performances from its three new energy brands: Qiyuan (37,000 units, +31% month-on-month), Deep Blue (28,000 units, +40% year-on-year), and Avita (11,000 units, +180% year-on-year) [3][8]. - The company expects continued growth in new energy vehicle sales, with a target of 1.03 million units in 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 42% [8]. Strategic Focus - Changan is focusing on three main strategies: new energy, intelligent technology, and global expansion, which are expected to drive both volume and profit growth in 2025 [8]. - The company has initiated a global expansion plan, with a new factory in Thailand expected to add 100,000 units of overseas production capacity [8].

Economic Growth Overview - Eurozone's GDP growth in the first half of 2025 reached 1.5%, significantly higher than 0.9% in 2024, largely driven by Ireland's performance[3] - Excluding Ireland, Eurozone GDP growth was approximately 1%, slightly above 0.7% in 2024, but below the long-term average of 1.7%[17] - The recovery is primarily supported by resilient household consumption and improvements in inventory cycles[18] Q3 Economic Indicators - Eurozone's EuroCoin index averaged 0.42 in July-August, up from 0.26 in Q2, indicating potential GDP growth recovery in Q3[4] - The composite PMI rose from 50.2% in May to 51% in August, suggesting a positive trend in economic activity[4] - Q3 GDP is projected to grow by 0.1% quarter-on-quarter, translating to a year-on-year growth of 1.2%[25] Future Economic Outlook - Leading indicators suggest a weak recovery trend, with financial conditions becoming increasingly favorable due to ongoing interest rate cuts by the ECB[31] - The ZEW Economic Sentiment Index indicates a potential return to a stable growth pattern in the next three quarters[31] Consumer and Investment Trends - Household consumption is expected to remain resilient, supported by stable disposable income and consumer confidence, although significant upward momentum is still awaited[42] - Residential investment is optimistic, with 54.3% of households expecting price increases in the next 12 months, up from 52.5% in June[50] - Non-residential investment shows short-term resilience, but firms remain cautious about future investments due to weak demand outlook[61] Export and Fiscal Challenges - Eurozone exports to China have been declining, while reliance on the U.S. market has increased, raising concerns about potential demand drop-offs[70] - Germany's fiscal expansion plans are viewed positively, with expectations of a deficit rate of 3.1% in 2025, while France faces political uncertainties affecting its fiscal outlook[75]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Compared to the situation at 3500 points, fund managers with large - scale, good performance, and high subscription volume are more optimistic about China's economy in the second half of the year at 3800 points. At 3500 points, they focused on short - term real estate drag, while at 3800 points, they emphasized that the "anti - involution" policy alleviates deflation and enhances market endogenous resilience, thus weakening policy dependence [3]. - Regarding the judgment of future industrial development trends, the core focus is on technological innovation - driven and the rise of emerging industries, with AI, innovative drugs, and new energy regarded as the core growth engines. At 3500 points, they regarded anti - involution as a "booster" to accelerate industry clearance, while at 3800 points, they paid more attention to the specific policy effects such as directly improving PPI and corporate profits [3]. - In terms of market judgment, they are optimistic about both A - shares and Hong Kong stocks. At 3500 points, they focused more on short - term market repair and volatility response, while at 3800 points, they were more concerned about the economic bottom - out recovery and the slow - bull market in the second half of the year, and the improvement of international liquidity in Hong Kong stocks [3]. - In terms of market style, they expect the market to continue the structural market, with the growth style (such as AI, innovative drugs, and robots) as the core main line. After reaching 3800 points, it tends more towards large - cap growth and blue - chip companies. Small - cap stocks have high elasticity but need to be wary of valuation bubbles [3]. - In terms of investment direction, they highly focus on the three major directions of technology, innovative drugs, and high - end manufacturing. At 3500 points, they focused more on new energy and new - quality productivity, while at 3800 points, they strengthened the military industry and traditional manufacturing under anti - involution, highlighting the diffusion opportunities of AI hardware terminals and the digital economy industry chain, and paying more attention to the bottom - out recovery of industries with rigid demand [3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. How to View China's Macroeconomy - **Similarities**: In both periods, it is believed that China's economy is stable and improving, with a steady GDP growth rate but prominent internal differentiation: the manufacturing/export chain is strong, while real estate drags down and consumer domestic demand is insufficient. The main risk is the US tariff conflict, and policies maintain a moderately loose monetary environment, with fiscal efforts to support confidence [6]. - **Differences**: At 3500 points, the recovery is mild and fragile, with low CPI/PPI exacerbating low inflation and real estate risks still existing; at 3800 points, it shows a "weak recovery after impact", with a good start in the first quarter and marginal improvement after the tariff impact in the second quarter, and consumer policies boosting the repair. At 3500 points, the focus is on short - term real estate drag; at 3800 points, the "anti - involution" policy is emphasized to alleviate low prices, and AI becomes a growth engine. At 3500 points, the expectation is a gradual recovery but with high risks; at 3800 points, it is more optimistic, predicting that a growth rate of about 5% in the second half of the year is achievable [6]. 2. Judgment on Future Policy Direction - **Similarities**: Both take stable growth as the core, expect the continuation of monetary easing, focus on supporting emerging industries (AI/innovative drugs), and use counter - cyclical adjustment to deal with external risks [9]. - **Differences**: At 3500 points, more emphasis is placed on short - term risk stabilization, with the focus on resisting external shocks and a cautious attitude towards consumer recovery; at 3800 points, "policy continuity and stability" is clearly stated, emphasizing market endogenous resilience to weaken policy dependence, deepening supply - side reform, and strengthening consumer structural opportunities [9]. 3. Logic of Future Industrial Allocation - **Similarities**: They are all optimistic about China's future industrial development, with the core focus on technological innovation - driven and the rise of emerging industries, regarding AI, innovative drugs, and new energy as the core growth engines. They recognize the key role of the anti - involution policy, believing that policies can improve corporate profits and the industry ecosystem. They agree that China's economy is shifting from investment - driven to innovation - driven, and the engineer dividend and capacity going global are long - term driving forces, and are confident in the leap of technology companies from "following" to "leading" [12]. - **Differences**: At 3500 points, it is more prominent that the inflection point of new energy is approaching and the allocation of finance and insurance; at 3800 points, the layout of cultivating future industries (such as biological manufacturing and embodied intelligence) is added, and semiconductor domestic substitution is strengthened. At 3500 points, they focus on anti - involution as a "booster" to accelerate industry clearance, while at 3800 points, they focus more on specific policy effects (such as the price law amendment draft directly improving PPI and corporate profits) [12]. 4. Views on the Future A - share Market - **Similarities**: They are all optimistic about the A - share market, believing that there are significant structural opportunities rather than a general upward trend, mainly based on the consensus of China's economic resilience, policy support (such as loose monetary and industrial policies), and controllable risks (such as the gradual easing of Sino - US tariff conflicts). Both periods emphasize focusing on high - growth sectors, especially technology, innovative drugs, high - end manufacturing, and consumption, expecting these sectors to benefit from industrial upgrading and global value chain reconstruction [15]. - **Differences**: At 3500 points, more focus is on short - term market repair and volatility response, emphasizing that the tariff shock led to an adjustment at the beginning of the second quarter, but after a rapid stabilization, the focus was on increasing positions in the military industry (reversal of difficulties), semiconductor equipment, and precious metals. At the same time, the decline in bond yields highlighted the attractiveness of equity assets. At 3800 points, more attention is paid to the economic bottom - out recovery and the slow - bull market in the second half of the year, with the risk prediction shifting to insufficient domestic demand and export pressure, and the investment strategy more inclined to dividend assets (such as bank stocks) and consumer valuation repair [15]. 5. Views on the Future Hong Kong Stock Market - **Similarities**: They are generally optimistic about the Hong Kong stock market, believing that its valuation is low, the company quality is high, and there are significant strategic investment opportunities. They emphasize that the Hong Kong stock market benefits from improved liquidity and policy support (such as a loose monetary environment and an active IPO market), and are optimistic about the technology sector (AI, intelligent driving, advanced processes, etc.) as the core growth engine, as well as innovative drugs, new consumption, and dividend sectors [18]. - **Differences**: At 3500 points, more focus is on short - term repair and rebound, such as the initial stage of a comprehensive rebound in the Hong Kong stock market, with innovative drugs and new consumption leading the rise. In risk response, it emphasizes preventing theme style adjustments and increasing the allocation of low - valuation assets such as non - ferrous metals. At 3800 points, more emphasis is placed on medium - and long - term opportunities, such as the "golden age just beginning" of the Hong Kong market, with the expectation of improved liquidity coming from long - term European and American funds. The strategy in the second half of the year shifts to holding large - scale platforms and blue - chip companies, and strengthening the AI industry chain (such as the digital economy main line) and disciplined fixed - amount investment to overcome the risks of weak consumption and low - level economic fluctuations [18]. 6. Judgment on the Style of the A - share Market in the Second Half of 2025 - **Similarities**: They all expect the market to continue the structural market, with the growth style (such as AI, innovative drugs, and robots) as the core main line. Small - cap stocks have an advantage due to their elasticity but need to be wary of valuation bubbles; the value sector (such as dividend assets and banks) serves as a defensive supplement. The industries focus on technology (AI computing power, semiconductors), innovative drugs, and the military industry. External factors such as the Fed's interest rate cuts and the progress of Sino - US trade negotiations support the optimistic expectation, and loose liquidity drives the market to fluctuate upward [21]. - **Differences**: After the trade tariff shock in the second quarter at 3500 points, the style turns to a balanced and cautious one. The small - and medium - cap style continues, but the risk of valuation bubbles is prominent, and more attention is paid to low - valuation repair (such as finance and industrial non - ferrous metals) and the allocation value of Hong Kong stocks. The industrial logic of innovative drugs is strengthened, while the expectation of domestic demand is weakened. At 3800 points, more emphasis is placed on the rebound of the large - cap growth style and policy drive (such as the anti - involution action boosting the pro - cyclical sector). Although domestic consumer demand is weak, the wealth effect and policy stimulus are expected to improve [21]. 7. The Three Most Promising Investment Directions in the Future - **Similarities**: They all highly focus on the three major directions of technology, innovative drugs, and high - end manufacturing, reflecting the consensus on industrial trends. The technology sector (such as AI, semiconductors, and digitalization) is regarded as the global innovation main line, benefiting from technology commercialization and domestic substitution. The innovative drug direction is continuously favored due to policy optimization (such as the marginal improvement of centralized procurement) and global R & D breakthroughs (such as the going - global of ADC drugs). High - end manufacturing (including new energy and the military industry) becomes the core allocation to deal with economic uncertainty due to profit repair at the bottom of the cycle and the drive of anti - involution policies [24]. - **Differences**: At 3500 points, more emphasis is placed on new energy and new - quality productivity. Affected by the tariff war, the strategy emphasizes cost - effectiveness and the valuation depression of Hong Kong technology leaders. At 3800 points, the military industry and traditional manufacturing under anti - involution are strengthened. As trade friction disturbances ease, the diffusion opportunities of AI hardware terminals and the digital economy industry chain are highlighted in the second - half outlook, and more attention is paid to the bottom - out recovery of industries with rigid demand [24].

Policy Developments - The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) released a draft regulation to lower public fund subscription and service fees, aiming to reduce investor costs significantly[2] - The cumulative savings for investors from the three phases of the public fund fee reform is estimated to exceed 50 billion yuan annually, with the third phase alone expected to save around 30 billion yuan[2] Economic Growth Initiatives - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT) outlined a growth action plan for the electronic information manufacturing industry, targeting an average growth rate of approximately 7% from 2025 to 2026[5] - The sports industry is projected to exceed 7 trillion yuan in total scale by 2030, with an annual growth rate close to 10%[5] International Relations - High-level meetings were held during the Shanghai Cooperation Organization summit, emphasizing cooperation on infrastructure and energy projects among member countries[3] - China aims to enhance the representation and voice of developing countries in global governance, as stated by the General Secretary during the summit[9] Anti-Corruption Measures - The Ministry of Finance and other regulatory bodies are intensifying efforts to combat corruption, with a focus on systemic reforms and accountability within state-owned enterprises[4] Industry-Specific Policies - The electronic information manufacturing sector is expected to achieve a revenue growth rate of over 5% annually, with specific targets for key areas like AI and 5G technology[5]

Economic Indicators - Huachuang Macro WEI index remains high at 6.75% as of August 31, up 0.59% from August 24[2] - Real estate sales show improvement with a 5.7% year-on-year increase in property transaction area for the first five days of September across 67 cities, compared to -18% in August[14] - JPMorgan Global Manufacturing PMI rises to 50.9 in August from 49.7 in July, indicating a recovery in external demand[29] Consumer Trends - Retail sales of passenger cars show a slowdown with a year-on-year growth of 2% as of August 31, down from 6% previously[13] - Subway ridership in 27 cities averages 78.44 million daily, up 8.9% year-on-year, but down from 80.4 million in August[3] Infrastructure and Production - Asphalt plant operating rate declines for three consecutive weeks, standing at 28.1% as of September 3, with a year-on-year increase of 3.8%[21] - Land premium rate remains low at 1.81% as of August 31, with a four-week average of 3.7%[14] Trade and Prices - Port container throughput shows a marginal decline but cumulative year-on-year growth reaches 9% as of August 31[29] - Gold prices rise to $3600.8 per ounce, up 3.6%, while polysilicon futures increase by 11.9% to 56,000 yuan per ton[46]

Employment Data Summary - August non-farm payrolls increased by 22,000, significantly below the expected 75,000, with June's data revised down to -13,000 and July's up to 79,000[2][32] - The unemployment rate rose slightly to 4.3% from 4.2%, aligning with expectations, while the labor force participation rate increased by 0.1 percentage points to 62.3%[2][38] - Average hourly earnings rose by 0.3% month-on-month, matching expectations, with a year-on-year increase of 3.7%, slightly below the expected 3.8%[3][45] Market Reactions and Predictions - Market expectations for a rate cut in September increased, with the probability of a 25 basis point cut rising from 100.4% to 108.6%, and the anticipated number of cuts for the year increasing from 2.426 to 2.752[3][47] - The performance of assets showed a mixed response, with U.S. stocks opening higher but closing lower, while U.S. Treasury yields fell and the dollar index declined[3][49] Employment Trends and Analysis - The breadth of employment growth improved slightly, with the employment diffusion index rising from 48% to 49.6%, still below historical averages[2][32] - Other employment demand indicators, such as the number of part-time workers for economic reasons and long-term unemployment rates, showed moderate increases but were not extreme[5][25] Federal Reserve Rate Cut Speculations - Three potential paths for the Federal Reserve's rate cuts were discussed: a larger cut of 50 basis points followed by two 25 basis point cuts, a cautious approach with two 25 basis point cuts, or a mixed approach with three 25 basis point cuts throughout the year[6][31] - The mixed approach is considered the most prudent, balancing the need for economic support while managing inflation risks[6][31]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" recommendation for the oil tanker sector and dry bulk sector, highlighting potential opportunities in both areas [3][24]. Core Insights - The VLCC freight rates have continued to rise, with the Clarkson VLCC-TCE index reaching $56,000 on September 5, marking a week-on-week increase of 34% [1][10]. - The report emphasizes the elasticity of oil tanker rates as the market approaches the peak season, driven by expected OPEC+ production increases and recovering refinery utilization rates [19][20]. - The dry bulk market is anticipated to gradually recover, supported by low supply growth and potential demand increases from upcoming projects and economic factors [23]. Summary by Sections Focus on Oil Tankers and Dry Bulk Opportunities - VLCC freight rates have shown significant increases across various routes, with Middle East to China rates at $58,000/day, up 38% week-on-week [1][10]. - OPEC+ is expected to increase production by approximately 137,000 barrels per day in October, which may contribute to higher freight demand [19]. - Refinery utilization rates have improved, with major refineries operating at 81.59%, a 0.2 percentage point increase from the previous week [19]. Industry Data Tracking - The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) was reported at 1979 points, down 2.3% week-on-week, indicating a mixed performance in the dry bulk sector [23]. - The report notes that the supply side remains constrained, with only 10.4% of dry bulk vessels on order, suggesting limited capacity growth in the coming years [23]. Market Review - The transportation sector experienced a decline of 1.4% in the week, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 0.6 percentage points [64]. - Notable stock performances included significant gains for companies like China Merchants Energy and China Merchants Jinling, while others like Shentong Express saw declines [64]. Investment Recommendations - Continued recommendations for the oil tanker sector include China Merchants Energy, China Merchants Jinling, and China Merchants South Oil [24]. - For the dry bulk sector, recommendations include Haitong Development and China Merchants Jinling, with a suggestion to pay attention to Pacific Shipping [24].