Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Group 2: Report's Core View - On July 25, 2025, the China Insurance Industry Association announced a reduction in the maximum预定利率 of insurance products, which is in line with market expectations and may open up space for insurance bond allocation [2][13] - By reviewing historical adjustments and recent impacts, this paper anticipates that the current rate cut may have limited effects on premium income growth and long - term treasury bond spread compression, with local bonds being a more likely major allocation choice [9][13][50] Group 3: Summary According to the Table of Contents 1. Definition and Historical Backtracking of the预定利率 of Life Insurance Products - The预定利率 is crucial for calculating an insurance company's profit from interest margin. As the investment return rate of insurance companies decreases, there is an increasing need to lower the预定利率 [14] - The historical adjustment of the预定利率 can be divided into four stages: from 1999 - 2013, it dropped to 2.5%; from 2013 - 2019, it rose to 3.5%; from 2019 - 2024, it gradually declined to 2.5%; since 2025, a dynamic adjustment mechanism has been established [3][15][18] 2. Review of the Impact of Recent Insurance预定利率 Reductions on the Bond Market - **Premium Income**: The "scramble for expiring products" before and during the transition of insurance products led to above - seasonal growth in premium income. In 2024, this growth was more concentrated compared to 2023 [5][21] - **Insurance Bond Allocation Behavior**: In 2023 and 2024, due to the "scramble for expiring products," there was significant above - seasonal growth in insurance bond allocation in August - September. Local bonds were the main allocation, and in 2024, there was an increase in treasury bond and inter - bank certificate of deposit allocation and a decrease in bank perpetual and subordinated bond allocation [6][24][27] - **Bond Market Performance**: In 2023, the spread between 30y local bonds and 30y treasury bonds narrowed; in 2024, the 30 - 10y treasury bond spread compressed significantly, while the spread between 30y local bonds and 30y treasury bonds widened [7][32] 3. New Changes in Insurance Asset Allocation in 2025 - The growth rate of insurance premium income on the liability side has decreased significantly in 2025, but the balance of insurance funds in use has continued to grow at a high rate, and the demand for bond allocation remains strong [37][40] - Bonds are still a preferred choice for insurance institutions. The proportion of bond allocation by life insurance companies has been increasing, mainly to address the issue of "mismatching long - term funds with short - term investments" and the pressure of re - allocating high - yield assets [44] 4. Outlook on the Impact of the Current预定利率 Reduction on the Bond Market - The effect of above - seasonal growth in premium income may be weaker than in the previous two rounds. The "scramble for expiring products" time is limited, and the reduction from 2.5% to 2% may have less of a stimulating effect on consumers [9][50] - Currently, 30y local bonds have higher cost - effectiveness than 30y treasury bonds. The current预定利率 reduction may have limited impact on compressing the spread of ultra - long treasury bonds [9][50]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 10 HKD [1]. Core Views - The company is expected to experience a significant decline in revenue and profits in the first half of 2025, with total revenue projected to be between 2.4 to 2.55 billion HKD, representing a year-on-year decrease of 38.3% to 41.9%. The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be between 570 to 580 million HKD, down 23% to 24% year-on-year [1]. - The company is focusing on inventory clearance and stabilizing its distribution channels, with a strategic shift towards launching new products to mitigate the impact of declining sales [8]. - The introduction of a flagship product, "Da Zhen," priced at 888 HKD, aims to capture market share and enhance profitability through targeted marketing strategies [8]. Financial Summary - Revenue projections for 2025 are estimated at 5.032 billion HKD, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 28.8% [4]. - Non-GAAP net profit for 2025 is forecasted at 1.151 billion HKD, a decrease of 31.31% compared to the previous year [4]. - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is adjusted to 0.34 HKD, down from previous estimates [8]. Market Strategy - The company is actively adjusting its market strategy by reducing supply and focusing on core products to stabilize its market position [8]. - There is an emphasis on expanding market presence in key regions such as Guizhou, Henan, and Shandong, while also exploring new consumer trends with product diversification [8]. - The management team is experienced and has a strong understanding of market dynamics, which is expected to support long-term growth despite short-term challenges [8].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In July 2025, the capital market experienced increased volatility but maintained a stable central level. The central bank actively adjusted its open - market operations to maintain market stability. The implementation effect of monetary policy will continue to emerge, and the central bank may maintain a coordinated policy stance during the peak issuance of government bonds. - In August, the overall capital gap pressure is expected to be seasonally large, around 1.8 trillion yuan. However, the capital central level is likely to remain around 1.5%, with a limited risk of significant tightening. The central bank may maintain a coordinated policy stance and there is a relatively higher probability of restarting bond - buying from August to September [4][5][69]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 7 - Month Capital and Liquidity Review 3.1.1 Capital Review - In July 2025, the overnight capital fluctuation range increased compared to the end of the previous quarter. The overnight capital fluctuated between 1.3 - 1.4% at the beginning of the month and rose to around 1.5% in the middle. The 7D capital price was basically around 1.5% from the beginning to the middle of the month and rose to around 1.6% at the end. The spread between 7D and overnight capital inverted for one day at the end of the month [10]. - The capital operation was affected by fiscal expenditures, reverse - repurchase operations, and MLF. The capital center decreased overall, with DR001 centered around 1.4% and DR007 fluctuating around 1.5% [11]. - The capital stratification pressure increased briefly in July, with spreads at a seasonal low. The capital volatility of overnight increased, and the 7D capital volatility changed seasonally. The average daily trading volume of inter - bank pledged repurchase decreased slightly compared to June [16][22][23]. 3.1.2 Liquidity Review - In terms of liquidity volume, the base currency in July may have decreased by 6019 billion yuan. The end - of - month excess reserves may have decreased by 5161 billion yuan, with an excess reserve ratio of about 1.55%. The narrow - sense excess reserve level after deducting reverse - repurchase is about 0.7%, still at a low level [31]. - In open - market operations, the central bank actively increased reverse - repurchase investments in July, with a net investment of 1880 billion yuan. MLF invested 4000 billion yuan and matured 3000 billion yuan. The net investment of outright reverse - repurchase was 2000 billion yuan, and a 1000 - billion - yuan treasury deposit operation was carried out [33][37][40]. 3.2 7 - Month Monetary Policy Tracking - In the middle of July, the central bank leader stated that the effect of the implemented monetary policy would continue to emerge, and it was reasonable for small and medium - sized banks to increase bond holdings. The regulatory attitude was more moderate than expected. - In the middle and late July, the central bank solicited opinions on "canceling the freezing of collateral for bond repurchase", which may improve collateral utilization efficiency in the long run. - At the end of July, the Political Bureau meeting emphasized implementing a more proactive fiscal policy and a moderately loose monetary policy, and fully releasing policy effects. The probability of a short - term interest rate cut is low, and the central bank may maintain a coordinated policy stance during the peak issuance of government bonds [3][48][52]. 3.3 8 - Month Gap Prediction 3.3.1 Rigid Gap - In August, the growth of general deposits may freeze about 902 billion yuan in reserves. The MLF maturity is 3000 billion yuan, and the outright reverse - repurchase maturity is 0.9 trillion yuan (4000 billion yuan for 3M and 5000 billion yuan for 6M) [4][57]. 3.3.2 Exogenous Shocks - Cash withdrawals and non - financial institution deposits may slightly freeze excess reserves. Cash withdrawals may consume about 577 billion yuan in excess reserves, and non - financial institution deposits may consume about 723 billion yuan [61]. 3.3.3 Fiscal Factors - The government bond issuance in August is expected to be around 1.5 trillion yuan. Considering factors such as payment reflux, taxation, and fiscal expenditures, government deposits may freeze about 2000 billion yuan in liquidity [64]. 3.3.4 Comprehensive Judgment - The overall capital gap in August is estimated to be around 1.8 trillion yuan, with a seasonally large pressure. However, the capital central level is likely to remain around 1.5%, with a limited risk of significant tightening. The central bank may continue the idea of over - repurchase and pay attention to the bank's liability situation and the possibility of the central bank restarting bond - buying from August to September [4][5][69].

Group 1: Global Monetary Policy Overview - The major central banks of the US, Eurozone, and Japan have maintained their interest rates unchanged as of July 2025, with the Federal Reserve holding rates at 4.25%-4.5%[2] - In July 2025, 4 out of 26 tracked economies reduced interest rates, down from 6 in June 2025[2] - The European Central Bank (ECB) paused its rate cuts after seven consecutive reductions, while the Bank of Japan has also kept its policy rate unchanged for the fourth consecutive time[2] Group 2: Interest Rate Expectations - The Federal Reserve's expectation for rate cuts has cooled, with the anticipated number of cuts for the year dropping from nearly 3 in early July to less than 2 by the end of July[3] - The probability of a rate cut in September for the Federal Reserve decreased from 90% to about 40% but rebounded to nearly 90% in early August due to significant downward revisions in US non-farm payroll data[3] - The ECB's rate cut expectations fell from a forecast of one more cut in July to no cuts by the end of July, with September cut probability dropping from 42% to approximately 10%[3] Group 3: China's Interest Rate Position - China's nominal interest rate increased slightly, leading to a rise in real interest rates from 3% in June to 3.1% in July 2025, placing it at the 69th percentile historically since 2014[3] - China's real interest rate ranking among 13 major economies has dropped to 10th place in 2025, down from 11th in 2024[3] Group 4: US Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet and Liquidity - As of July 30, 2025, the Federal Reserve's reserves have shrunk by $57.7 billion compared to pre-tightening levels, with a monthly reduction of $47.6 billion in July[4] - The use of the discount window has increased, indicating potential liquidity stress among some smaller banks[4] - The SOFR-EFFR spread has frequently turned positive since 2025, reflecting tightening liquidity conditions for non-bank institutions[5] Group 5: Global Financial Market Liquidity - The bid-ask spread for US 10Y Treasuries has increased, indicating tighter supply-demand conditions, with the spread at the 66th percentile historically since 2001[6] - Credit spreads for high-yield bonds in the US have slightly widened since July, while spreads in Japan, Europe, and Asia remain low[6]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Group 2: Core Views of the Report - In July 2025, the convertible bond and equity markets both rose rapidly with multiple catalysts, but there was a slight pullback at the end of the month. The valuation of convertible bonds is at a high level, and their elasticity is relatively weak. The current valuation increase is mainly driven by low - price convertible bonds, with a relatively healthy structure. Attention should be paid to potential investment opportunities in low - price and equity - biased convertible bonds [1][26][35] - The convertible bond market is expected to oscillate at a high valuation level. The support from the equity market may remain strong, and the risk of valuation decline is relatively weak. The "Huachuang Convertible Bond" focus portfolio for August 2025 has been adjusted [36][49] Group 3: Summary by Directory I. Convertible Bond Valuation at a High Level, Focus on Structural Opportunities - **Market Review**: In July, the equity and convertible bond markets both rose rapidly with multiple catalysts. The public funds in the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges increased their holdings of convertible bonds by 3.63%, and the ETF share increased by 19.46%. The small - cap style was strong throughout the month, and there was a slight pullback at the end of the month. The Wind All - A Index rose 4.75%, and the convertible bond index rose 2.87%, with the valuation increasing [1] - **Analysis of High - Valuation Characteristics**: High - valuation convertible bonds have weak elasticity. Reviewing historical high - valuation periods (March 2020, February 2022, August 2022), they were characterized by high - valuation pullback pressure and high Delta. Currently, the rapid increase in convertible bond valuation is due to fund buying and ETF share growth. The low - price varieties are strong, and the current Delta is around 0.55, providing a higher safety margin [2][16] - **Investment Suggestions**: There may be a bubble in convertible bond valuation. Pay attention to low - price and equity - biased convertible bonds. In a high - valuation environment, if there are theme catalysts, focus on equity - biased convertible bonds to increase elasticity, and also participate in low - price convertible bonds for bottom - line protection [3][35] II. Valuation Outlook: High - Level Oscillation, Relatively Healthy Structure - **Support from the Equity Market**: Multiple themes have driven the equity market, and sentiment is positive. The technology sector can continue to be followed [36] - **Healthy Valuation Structure**: The current valuation increase is mainly driven by low - price convertible bonds. Public funds and ETFs have increased their holdings, and the risk of valuation decline is relatively weak. As of July 31, 2025, the 100 - yuan par - value fitted conversion premium rate was 26.83%, up 2.11 pct from the end of June [36] - **Valuation Compression in Different Categories**: As of July 31, compared with the end of June, the conversion premium rates of debt - biased convertible bonds decreased significantly. Most industries, ratings, and scales of convertible bonds saw valuation compression [40][41] III. Key Focus Convertible Bonds - **July Performance**: From July 5 to August 4, the July convertible bond portfolio rose 4.42%, outperforming the benchmark index by 1.17 pct. Huayi, Fenggong, and Rongtai had the highest gains, while some bank convertible bonds adjusted slightly [46] - **August Portfolio Adjustment**: The "Huachuang Convertible Bond" focus portfolio for August is adjusted to include Xingqiu, Mingli, Fenggong, Zhanggu, Huayi, Yifeng, Shangyin, Ziyin, Zhongyin, Qingnong, and Xingye. The portfolio selection strategy combines top - down and bottom - up approaches, with specific selection requirements [49][53][54] IV. Market Review: Both Convertible Bonds and Underlying Stocks Rose, Valuation Significantly Increased - **Overall Market Performance**: In July, the underlying stock market rose, and the convertible bond market followed. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 3.74%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 5.20%, the Wind All - A Index rose 4.75%, and the convertible bond index rose 2.87%. The valuation increased by 2.11 pct. The small - cap stocks performed better, and the pharmaceutical sector was relatively strong [55] - **(1) Market Performance: Most Convertible Bond Sectors Rose, and the Tibet Revitalization Concept Heated Up Significantly**: Most of the Shenwan primary industry indices rose in July, with steel, pharmaceutical biology, and building materials having the highest gains. In the convertible bond market, building materials, pharmaceutical biology, and household appliances had the highest gains [58] - **(2) Capital Performance: Trading Volume in the Convertible Bond and Equity Markets Continued to Increase**: The average daily trading volume of the CSI Convertible Bond Index in July was 728.88 billion yuan, up 16.32% from June. The average daily trading volume of the Wind All - A Index was 16,336.29 billion yuan, up 22.28% from June. The margin trading balance increased, and most industries received net margin purchases [68][69] V. Supply and Demand Situation: The Supply Scale of New Convertible Bonds Increased Month - on - Month, and the Pace of Pre - plans Slowed Down - **(1) In July, 3 Convertible Bonds Were Issued, and 9 New Convertible Bonds Were Listed**: In July, 3 new convertible bonds were issued, with a total scale of 84.52 billion yuan, and 9 new convertible bonds were listed, with a total scale of 43.52 billion yuan. The online subscription for new convertible bonds heated up, with an average effective subscription amount of 8.32 trillion yuan. The total effective subscription was 24.97 trillion yuan, and the online subscription success rate was 0.0096% [71][76] - **Pending Issuance and New Pre - plans**: The total pending issuance scale is about 84 billion yuan. As of July 31, 2025, 4 listed companies obtained approval for convertible bond issuance, and 3 companies passed the review meeting and were waiting for approval. Two companies announced new board pre - plans, with a total scale of 24.96 billion yuan, a 10.40% decrease from June [78][80] - **Redemption and Downward Revision Announcements**: In July, 5 convertible bonds announced redemption, and 8 convertible bonds announced downward revisions. Many convertible bonds also announced non - downward revisions, proposed downward revisions, or were expected to meet redemption conditions [85][89] - **(2) In July, Holders in the Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Exchanges Were Cautious Overall, while Public Funds Were Active**: The total convertible bond holding value in the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges in July was 647.854 billion yuan, a decrease of 73.14 billion yuan from June. Public funds increased their holdings, while enterprise annuities decreased their holdings. Brokerage asset management also showed different trends in the two exchanges [92][98][100]

Group 1: Capital Flow and Liquidity - Southbound funds have seen a cumulative net inflow of over 250 billion yuan in the past three months, with weekly net inflows exceeding 10 billion yuan[14] - Retail investors contributed a net inflow of 134.86 billion yuan in the last week, marking a 22.5 billion yuan increase from the previous value, maintaining a high level at the 76.4 percentile over the past five years[8] - Leverage funds continue to flow in at high levels, with net inflows of approximately 322.8 billion yuan last week, although this is a decrease from the previous week's 446.1 billion yuan[30] Group 2: Market Trends and Investor Sentiment - The Shanghai Composite Index experienced its first decline after five consecutive weeks of increases, indicating a potential shift in market sentiment[8] - The trading heat for the machinery sector increased by 29 percentage points to 86%, while the construction sector rose by 24 percentage points to 72%[9] - The search interest in A-shares has declined, reflecting a cooling investor sentiment despite high net inflows from retail investors[8] Group 3: ETF and Fund Performance - The net subscription for stock ETFs dropped significantly to -38.13 billion yuan, a stark contrast to the previous net inflow of -5.3 billion yuan, placing it at the 1.9 percentile over the past three years[42] - The issuance of new public equity funds decreased to 9.21 billion yuan, which is at the 46 percentile over the past three years, indicating a contraction in new fund launches[50] - The total amount of share buybacks increased to 3.6 billion yuan, up from 1.85 billion yuan, reflecting a strong buyback trend at the 78 percentile over the past three years[46]

Group 1: Fund Liquidity - Southbound funds have seen a cumulative net inflow of over 250 billion CNY in the past three months, with weekly net inflows exceeding 10 billion CNY[5] - Leverage funds continue to see high net inflows, with net inflow of 322.8 billion CNY last week, maintaining a high level at the 93rd percentile over the past three years[11] - Stock-type ETFs experienced a significant net outflow of 381.3 billion CNY, placing it at the 1.9th percentile over the past three years[18] Group 2: Trading Congestion - The trading heat for the machinery sector increased by 29 percentage points to 86%, while the construction sector rose by 24 percentage points to 72%[52] - The insurance sector's trading heat increased by 13 percentage points to 28%, whereas the light industry, photovoltaic, and military industries saw declines of 18, 17, and 16 percentage points, respectively[52] Group 3: Investor Sentiment - The A-share market saw a decline after five consecutive weeks of increases, with a drop in overall search heat for A-shares on social media[65] - Retail investor net inflow in the A-share market was 134.9 billion CNY last week, maintaining a high level at the 76.4th percentile over the past five years[2]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" recommendation for the computer industry, particularly focusing on AI application directions [4]. Core Insights - The report highlights the advancements of the Kimi model by Moonshot AI, emphasizing its position in the global open-source SOTA (State of the Art) landscape [2][8]. - Kimi K2, the latest model, has achieved significant breakthroughs in various capabilities, including code generation, reasoning, and automation, establishing a new benchmark in the industry [36][39]. - The report outlines the strategic shift from a single dialogue tool to a comprehensive product matrix, catering to both consumer (C-end) and business (B-end) markets [12][21]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The computer industry consists of 337 listed companies with a total market capitalization of approximately 47,787.54 billion [4]. - The industry has shown strong performance, with absolute returns of 61.1% over the past 12 months [5]. Kimi Model Development - Moonshot AI, recognized as one of the leading players in the domestic AI landscape, launched the Kimi model, which supports input of up to 200,000 Chinese characters, marking a significant advancement in long-text processing [12][23]. - The Kimi K2 model, released in July 2025, features a mixture of experts (MoE) architecture with 320 billion active parameters and a total of 1 trillion parameters, achieving a balance between efficiency and performance [34][39]. Performance Metrics - Kimi K2 has outperformed several international models, ranking first in the global open-source model leaderboard and excelling in various benchmark tests, including code generation and mathematical reasoning [47][48]. - The model's performance in the Aider Leaderboard and EQ-Bench3 tests demonstrates its competitive edge in tool usage and emotional intelligence [50][51]. Investment Themes - The report identifies key investment themes, including the cost advantages of Kimi K2, which is expected to drive the commercialization of AI agents and enhance application layer innovations [9][10]. - The strategic focus on open-source models is anticipated to lower development costs and accelerate the adoption of AI applications across various sectors [9][10].

证券研究报告 2025年08月05日 资产配置快评 华创证券研究所 证券分析师:牛播坤 邮箱:niubokun@hcyjs.com 执业编号:S0360514030002 证券分析师:郭忠良 【资产配置快评】2025年第 35期 Riders on the Charts: 每周大类资产配置图 表精粹 投资摘要: � Strong tech is always a sharp instrument. -Dr Alexander Caedmon Karp 邮箱:guozhongliang@hcyjs.com 执业编号:S0360520090002 相关研究报告 8. 美元兑日元互换基差和美元融资溢价周度更新 9. 铜金价格比与离岸人民币汇率走势周度更新 10.中国在岸股债总回报相对表现周度更新 * 风险提示: 原油市场爆发价格战,新兴市场出现系统性金融风险 《资产配置快评 2025年第 34 期:为潜在通胀上 行风险做准备-7月美联储议息会议点评2025年 第5期》 2025-07-31 《资产配置快评 2025年第 33 期: Riders on the Charts: 每周大类资产配置图表精粹》 2025-0 ...

Group 1: Overview of Anti-Involution - The report emphasizes that the current framework of "anti-involution" is still being refined and may require further input from industry associations and relevant departments, indicating a dynamic and evolving policy landscape[3] - The anti-involution policy aims to serve the unified market and high-quality development, addressing both competitive malpractices and promoting new products, technologies, and services[3] - The report outlines three phases for addressing "involutionary" competition, focusing initially on behavior norms and market capacity governance, with potential administrative interventions if necessary[3] Group 2: Key Strategies and Actions - The first phase targets traditional high-energy consumption industries and aims to enhance energy efficiency standards to accelerate development model transformation[3] - The second phase focuses on enhancing industrial competitiveness through innovation and appropriate competition, with measures including optimizing competitive order and breaking local protectionism[3] - Specific actions include promoting product quality improvement, ensuring fair competition, and initiating a new round of ten major industries for stable growth[3] Group 3: Industry Implications and Future Outlook - The anti-involution initiative may impact multiple sectors, including new energy vehicles, photovoltaic, lithium batteries, and e-commerce, among others[7] - The report suggests that the anti-involution process will not be rushed, contrasting it with the supply-side reform initiated in 2016, which had different objectives and employment constraints[6] - The report anticipates that if initial phases do not yield results, a third phase with more explicit administrative targets may be implemented to resolve supply-demand conflicts[6]