Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the company, expecting it to outperform the benchmark index by over 20% in the next six months [2][17]. Core Insights - The company's H1 2025 performance exceeded expectations, with revenue reaching 991 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 8.09%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 117 million yuan, up 14.18% year-on-year [2][3]. - The report highlights the foundation for long-term growth established by new technologies and industries, particularly in the integrated circuit sector, which saw a revenue increase of 21.01% year-on-year [8]. - The company is expanding its product offerings in thermal vacuum testing equipment and is actively exploring opportunities in commercial aerospace and integrated circuits, which are expected to drive future revenue growth [8]. Financial Summary - For 2025, the company is projected to achieve total revenue of 2.271 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 12.1%. The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be 308 million yuan, reflecting a growth rate of 34.2% [4][9]. - The report provides a detailed financial forecast, indicating a steady increase in revenue and net profit through 2027, with projected revenues of 2.601 billion yuan and 2.984 billion yuan for 2026 and 2027, respectively [4][9]. - The company's earnings per share (EPS) is expected to grow from 0.45 yuan in 2024 to 0.91 yuan in 2027, indicating strong profitability potential [4][9]. Market Performance - The company's stock price as of July 30, 2025, was 16.50 yuan, with a target price set at 24.22 yuan, suggesting significant upside potential [4][5]. - The report notes a decline in gross margin to 41.88% in H1 2025, attributed to increased capacity investments, but net profit margin improved to 13.51% due to reduced expense ratios [8].

Group 1: Federal Reserve's Monetary Policy - In July, the Federal Reserve maintained the federal funds rate in the range of 4.25%-4.5%, citing a "tight balance" in the labor market and potential inflation risks from high tariffs[3][6] - The Fed's assessment of economic uncertainty focuses on rising inflation impacting real GDP growth rather than nominal output or employment issues[3][6] - The threshold for rate cuts remains high, with no clear indication of a September rate cut despite market speculation[3][10] Group 2: Inflation and Economic Outlook - Inflation risks are primarily driven by tariffs, which are seen as a short-term shock, but the long-term impact on the economy requires further evaluation[3][9] - The Fed acknowledges that the current inflationary pressures may just be the beginning of the effects from tariffs on goods inflation[3][9] - The labor market remains solid, with no signs of weakness, but there are downside risks to economic growth[3][11] Group 3: Market Implications - Improved risk appetite and economic outlook may continue to support U.S. equities and long-term Treasury yields, with the dollar index potentially returning to the 100 mark[3][12] - Emerging market assets, excluding China, may face valuation risks due to high tariffs and external demand pressures, despite some trade agreements[3][12]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Today, the convertible bond market declined with reduced trading volume, and the valuation increased compared to the previous day [1]. - The CSI Convertible Bond Index decreased by 0.08% compared to the previous day, while the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.17%, the Shenzhen Component Index decreased by 0.77%, the ChiNext Index decreased by 1.62%, the SSE 50 Index rose by 0.38%, and the CSI 1000 Index decreased by 0.82% [1]. - The large - cap value style was relatively dominant in the market. The large - cap growth index decreased by 0.48%, the large - cap value index rose by 0.84%, the mid - cap growth index decreased by 0.17%, the mid - cap value index rose by 0.51%, the small - cap growth index decreased by 0.76%, and the small - cap value index decreased by 0.27% [1]. - The trading sentiment in the convertible bond market weakened. The trading volume of the convertible bond market was 76.134 billion yuan, a 2.88% decrease compared to the previous day; the total trading volume of the Wind All - A Index was 1.870976 trillion yuan, a 2.28% increase compared to the previous day; the net out - flow of main funds in the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets was 52.9 billion yuan, and the yield of the 10 - year treasury bond decreased by 2.86bp to 1.72% [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Overview - Index performance: The CSI Convertible Bond Index decreased by 0.08% compared to the previous day, while the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.17%, the Shenzhen Component Index decreased by 0.77%, the ChiNext Index decreased by 1.62%, the SSE 50 Index rose by 0.38%, and the CSI 1000 Index decreased by 0.82% [1]. - Market style: The large - cap value style was relatively dominant. The large - cap growth index decreased by 0.48%, the large - cap value index rose by 0.84%, the mid - cap growth index decreased by 0.17%, the mid - cap value index rose by 0.51%, the small - cap growth index decreased by 0.76%, and the small - cap value index decreased by 0.27% [1]. - Capital performance: The trading volume of the convertible bond market was 76.134 billion yuan, a 2.88% decrease compared to the previous day; the total trading volume of the Wind All - A Index was 1.870976 trillion yuan, a 2.28% increase compared to the previous day; the net out - flow of main funds in the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets was 52.9 billion yuan, and the yield of the 10 - year treasury bond decreased by 2.86bp to 1.72% [1]. Convertible Bond Price - The central price of convertible bonds decreased, and the proportion of high - price bonds remained the same. The weighted average closing price of convertible bonds was 126.79 yuan, a 0.05% decrease compared to the previous day. Among them, the closing price of equity - biased convertible bonds was 167.54 yuan, a 0.24% decrease; the closing price of debt - biased convertible bonds was 117.04 yuan, a 0.22% increase; the closing price of balanced convertible bonds was 124.96 yuan, a 0.08% increase [2]. - The proportion of high - price bonds above 130 yuan was 43.84%, remaining the same as the previous day; the range with the largest change in proportion was 110 - 120 (including 120), with a proportion of 20.95%, a 0.65pct decrease compared to the previous day; there were 2 bonds with a closing price below 100 yuan. The median price was 128.43 yuan, a 0.19% increase compared to the previous day [2]. Convertible Bond Valuation - Valuation increased. The fitted conversion premium rate of 100 - yuan par value was 27.74%, a 0.18pct increase compared to the previous day; the overall weighted par value was 96.98 yuan, a 0.30% decrease compared to the previous day. The premium rate of equity - biased convertible bonds was 6.82%, a 0.29pct increase; the premium rate of debt - biased convertible bonds was 85.62%, a 0.25pct increase; the premium rate of balanced convertible bonds was 22.17%, a 0.05pct increase [2]. Industry Performance - In the A - share market, more than half of the underlying stock industry indices declined, with 16 industries falling. The top three industries with the largest declines were power equipment (-2.22%), computer (-1.59%), and automobile (-1.27%); the top three industries with the largest increases were steel (+2.05%), petroleum and petrochemical (+1.84%), and media (+1.00%) [3]. - In the convertible bond market, 18 industries declined. The top three industries with the largest declines were communication (-2.25%), automobile (-1.07%), and household appliances (-0.96%); the top three industries with the largest increases were building materials (+0.82%), textile and apparel (+0.79%), and building decoration (+0.42%) [3]. - Closing price: The large - cycle sector decreased by 0.04%, the manufacturing sector decreased by 0.57%, the technology sector decreased by 0.81%, the large - consumption sector increased by 0.04%, and the large - finance sector decreased by 0.18% [3]. - Conversion premium rate: The large - cycle sector increased by 0.063pct, the manufacturing sector increased by 1.1pct, the technology sector increased by 0.87pct, the large - consumption sector increased by 0.68pct, and the large - finance sector increased by 0.14pct [3]. - Conversion value: The large - cycle sector decreased by 0.14%, the manufacturing sector decreased by 1.22%, the technology sector decreased by 1.37%, the large - consumption sector remained unchanged, and the large - finance sector decreased by 0.71% [3]. - Pure - debt premium rate: The large - cycle sector decreased by 0.062pct, the manufacturing sector decreased by 0.72pct, the technology sector decreased by 1.2pct, the large - consumption sector increased by 0.054pct, and the large - finance sector decreased by 0.22pct [4]. Industry Rotation - The leading rising industries were steel, petroleum and petrochemical, and media. The daily increase of steel was 2.05%, petroleum and petrochemical was 1.84%, and media was 1.00%. In the convertible bond market, the corresponding daily changes were -0.10%, -0.06%, and -0.66% respectively [54].

证 券 研 究 报 告 牛市定心丸，稳策即利好 ——730政治局会议点评 2025年7月30日 证券分析师：姚 佩 执业编号：S0360522120004 邮箱：yaopei@hcyjs.com 联系人：朱冬墨 邮箱：zhudongmo@hcyjs.com 本报告由华创证券有限责任公司编制 卖的出价或询价。本报告所载信息均为个人观点，并不构成对所涉及证券的个人投资建议。 请仔细阅读PPT后部分的分析师声明及免责声明。 @2021 华创 版权所有 宏观政策持续发力、适时加力 证 券 研 究 报 告 | 政治局会议 | 2025年7月政治局会议 | 2025年4月政治局会议 | 2024年12月经济工作会议 | 2024年12月政治局会议 | 2024年9月政治局会议 | 2024年7月政治局会议 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 经济运行稳中有进，高质量发展取得新成效。主要经济 | | 一年来的发展历程很不平凡，成绩令人鼓舞，特别是9 | | | | | | 指标表现良好，新质生产力积极发展，改革开放不断深 | 经济呈现向好态势，社会信心持续提振 ...

证 券 研 究 报 告 华创金融|红利资产月报（2025 年 7 月） 7 月银行板块回调，业绩快报传递积极信号 二季度存贷增速普遍下降，与社融信贷增速趋势较为一致。1）资产端，由于 一季度"开门红"及降息预期下银行抢抓投放，二季信贷需求总体较弱。除了 齐鲁银行信贷增速略有上升外，其余三家信贷投放均有降速。不过整体而言三 家城商行的信贷投放仍然保持双位数强劲增长，而作为农商行的常熟银行信贷 增速则弱于总资产增速，或由于个人经营贷需求仍偏弱。1H25 常熟/杭州/宁波 / 齐鲁银行的贷款增速分别较 1Q25 -0.9pct/-2.3pct/-1.7pct/+1.1pct 至 5.2%/12%/18.7%/13.7%。2）负债端，除了常熟银行存款增速略有上升外，其 余三家存款增速均有所下降，降幅均高于贷款。1H25 常熟/杭州/宁波/齐鲁银 行 的 存 款 增 速 分 别 较 1Q25 +0.9pct/-4.9pct/-7.2pct/-1.8pct 至 9.9%/16.2%/12.7%/13.1%。 资产质量保持稳定，核充率有所提升。除了齐鲁银行不良率有明显改善外（环 比下降 8bp 至 1.09%），其余三家不 ...

Group 1 - The overall change in public fund holdings shows an increase in communication and banking sectors, while a decrease in food and beverage, and automotive sectors [1][8] - In Q2 2025, public funds increased their holdings in the top five industries: communication (up 2.5 percentage points), banking (up 1.2 percentage points), military industry (up 1.0 percentage points), non-banking financials (up 0.8 percentage points), and media (up 0.6 percentage points) [1][8] - The top five industries with decreased holdings were food and beverage (down 2.1 percentage points), automotive (down 1.5 percentage points), new energy (down 1.2 percentage points), home appliances (down 0.9 percentage points), and machinery (down 0.8 percentage points) [1][8] Group 2 - The report categorizes funds into four types: increasing, decreasing, adjusting, and extreme styles, highlighting distinct investment behaviors and strategies [7][13] - Increasing funds showed a preference for a "barbell" strategy, adding to components, communication devices, and chemical pharmaceuticals while reducing industrial metals, semiconductors, and automotive parts [17][18] - Decreasing funds focused on strengthening and balancing growth styles, increasing holdings in communication devices, communication services, and digital media while reducing investments in liquor, passenger vehicles, and automotive parts [17][18] Group 3 - Adjusting funds emphasized a growth-oriented value style, increasing investments in communication devices, biopharmaceuticals, and IT services while reducing holdings in semiconductors, consumer electronics, and social media [17][18] - Extreme style funds maintained their core competencies, increasing holdings in new energy and automotive parts while reducing passenger vehicles and state-owned banks [17][18] - The consensus for selling included sectors like passenger vehicles, social media, semiconductors, and industrial metals, while buying consensus included communication devices, banking shares, and chemical pharmaceuticals [17][18]

- The report identifies three types of fundamental stock selection strategies: PB-ROE, GARP, and PEAD, which are constructed using valuation, growth, quality, and surprise factors[2][23][86] - PB-ROE strategy combines valuation (BP) and quality (ROE) factors, aiming to select high ROE and low PB stocks. Stocks are ranked by BP and ROE, with the top 20% forming the intersection portfolio. Transaction costs are set at 0.1% for buying and 0.3% for selling, and trades are executed at the next day's opening price[24][23][49] - GARP strategy integrates valuation (EP) and growth (net profit growth rate) factors, targeting stocks with reasonable prices and growth potential. Stocks are ranked by EP and quarterly net profit growth rate, with the top 20% forming the intersection portfolio. Similar transaction costs and execution rules apply[53][23][54] - PEAD strategy focuses on surprise factors, using SUE (net profit deviation from historical average) and JOR (price movement around earnings announcement) to capture post-earnings announcement drift. Stocks are ranked by SUE and JOR, with the top 10% forming the intersection portfolio. Transaction costs and execution rules are consistent with other strategies[86][23][84] - PB-ROE strategy's annualized return is 15.71%, with a Sharpe ratio of 0.73 and maximum drawdown of 37.63%. Market reaction delay contributes 2.3% of excess return over 12 trading days, while insufficient reaction adds 0.4% over 20 trading days[49][116][51] - GARP strategy achieves an annualized return of 21.22%, with a Sharpe ratio of 0.83 and maximum drawdown of 42.85%. Market reaction delay contributes 3% of excess return over 12 trading days, while insufficient reaction is negligible at -0.01%[54][116][70] - PEAD strategy delivers an annualized return of 25.00%, with a Sharpe ratio of 0.91 and maximum drawdown of 45.69%. Market reaction delay contributes 9% of excess return over 8 trading days, while insufficient reaction adds 1% over 20 trading days[87][116][103] - When delaying portfolio rebalancing by one month, PB-ROE strategy's annualized return drops to 11.97%, GARP strategy to 12.85%, and PEAD strategy to 15.87%. The reduction in annualized return is 3.66%, 8.37%, and 9.13%, respectively[49][77][103] - The average portfolio capacity is 1.28 billion for PB-ROE, 1.89 billion for GARP, and 1.01 billion for PEAD. The average number of holdings is 77, 173, and 70, respectively[41][69][100]

Strategy Overview - The AI industry wave is driving a recovery in PCB demand and technological advancement, with AI computing, edge AI, and new energy vehicles becoming core growth engines for the PCB industry. The demand for multilayer boards with more than 18 layers and HDI is expected to grow by 40.3% and 18.8% year-on-year in 2024, respectively, with a five-year CAGR of 15.7% and 6.4% projected [3][12][26]. Electronics Sector - PCB is known as the "mother of electronic products" and is widely used in various electronic devices. The rapid growth of AI computing is significantly boosting the demand for server-related products, with the server/storage PCB market expected to see a year-on-year growth of 33.1% in 2024, outpacing the overall PCB market growth of 5.8% [43][29][56]. - Recommended stocks in the PCB sector include Jingwang Electronics, Shenghong Technology, Dongshan Precision, and others, while CCL and copper foil sectors also have recommended stocks such as Shengyi Technology and Tongguan Copper Foil [5][12][37]. Machinery Sector - The demand for high-performance servers, GPUs, and advanced PCBs is surging due to the rapid iteration of AI models and smart hardware applications. This has led to increased demand for PCB-specific equipment and materials, with a focus on companies like Dazhu CNC and Chip Quik [6][13]. - The complexity and precision requirements for PCB manufacturing are increasing, leading to higher demand for specialized equipment and materials, particularly in the areas of drilling and solder paste printing [6][13]. Chemical Sector - The growth trend of AI servers is confirmed, leading to higher demands for core materials such as CCL, resin, copper foil, and electronic cloth. This upgrade not only involves physical characteristics but also enhances value and supply chain dynamics [7][13]. - Recommended stocks in the chemical sector include Lianrui New Materials and Dongcai Technology, which are expected to benefit from these trends [7][13]. Market Dynamics - The global PCB market is projected to reach a value of $94.7 billion by 2029, with China accounting for approximately 53% of this market. The demand for high-end PCBs is particularly strong in AI computing and new energy vehicles, which are expected to drive significant growth in the coming years [17][20][59]. - The PCB industry is entering a high prosperity cycle driven by AI computing, automotive electronics, and edge AI, with significant increases in revenue and net profit observed in the first quarter of 2025 compared to the previous year [32][38].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for the real estate sector [2] Core Insights - The real estate index increased by 4.1% in the 30th week, ranking 7th among 31 primary industry sectors [8][10] - New housing and second-hand housing transactions showed a slight increase, with new housing transactions up by 16% week-on-week and second-hand housing transactions up by 2% [5][21] - The report emphasizes the importance of effective policies and fiscal measures to stabilize the market, particularly focusing on urban renewal and the adjustment of housing loan policies [13][28] Summary by Sections Industry Basic Data - Total number of stocks: 107 - Total market value: 1,205.52 billion - Circulating market value: 1,153.12 billion [2] Sales Performance - New housing transaction area in 20 cities was 1.57 million square meters, with a year-on-year decrease of 13% [18] - Second-hand housing transaction area in 11 cities was 1.87 million square meters, with a year-on-year decrease of 2% [21] Policy News - Chengdu announced measures to promote stable development in the real estate market, including the gradual lifting of housing sales restrictions and adjustments to housing provident fund loan rules [13][15] - Shanghai released new residential design standards to enhance safety, comfort, and sustainability [5][13] Investment Strategy - The report suggests focusing on companies with strong product moats and stable rental income from quality commercial real estate [28] - Key companies to watch include Greentown China, China Resources Land, Swire Properties, and Beike-W [28]

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. Core View of the Report - This year, credit bond ETFs have attracted significant market attention, with a structural rush to buy the component bonds of relevant indices. In July, the first batch of 10 science - innovation bond ETFs were officially listed, expanding the market and boosting the decline in the yields of index component bonds. Recently, the scale growth of credit bond ETFs has slowed down, and the overall bond market has shown weakness due to the stock - bond seesaw effect, causing the market for component bonds to slow down. The report will continuously track the performance of relevant indicators of credit bond ETFs from multiple dimensions [1][6]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Credit Bond ETF Indicators and PCF Lists - The daily subscription and redemption list of credit bond ETFs is announced before the opening of the exchange. It includes data on component securities, cash substitution, fund share net value, etc. The report conducts daily tracking of the PCF lists of credit bond ETFs, observes changes in PCF component bonds, and calculates indicators such as the duration, changes in the estimated yields of component bonds, static yields of funds, and the proportion of perpetual bonds of each credit bond ETF [2][7]. - The basic situation and market performance of multiple credit bond ETFs are presented, including information on redemption mechanisms, the number of bonds, cash substitution premium ratios, durations, static yields, proportions of perpetual bonds, average changes in the estimated values of component bonds, closing price changes, and cumulative unit net value growth rates [10]. - The important indicator information of some PCF list component bonds is provided, including cash substitution signs, cash substitution premium ratios, fixed substitution amounts, bond issuance volumes, estimated full prices, subscription and redemption unit market values, market value weights, estimated modified durations, estimated yields, and changes in estimated yields [11]. - The share change data of credit bond ETFs from June 16, 2025, to July 25, 2025, are presented, covering various types of ETFs such as science - innovation bond ETFs, Shanghai - based benchmark - making corporate bond ETFs, Shenzhen - based benchmark - making credit bond ETFs, corporate bond ETFs, urban investment bond ETFs, and short - term financing ETFs [12]. Index Component Bond Market Performance - The component bonds of credit bond ETF - related indices are selected, and the excess spreads of individual bonds are obtained by dynamically matching the estimated yield curves of corporate bonds with the same remaining term and implied rating and then subtracting them. The credit spreads, excess spreads of component bonds, and the credit spreads of comparable corporate bonds are compared to observe the market performance of component bonds from multiple dimensions. Non - perpetual bond index component bonds are also analyzed separately [3][13]. - Multiple charts are used to show the excess spreads of benchmark - making bonds on the Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Exchanges and the excess spreads and spreads of component bonds of the China Securities AAA Science - Innovation Bond Index under different time - to - maturity ranges [5][16][25].