缘何对信用债行情有期待？ 债市震荡期，自然是寻求票息稳定，加之资金面演绎宽松，给增持票息类资产提供了相对舒适的环境，加之以下两点 微观逻辑有一定支撑：一是利率债低位震荡，信用债行情通常有跟随预期；二是机构持债行为的倾向性，特别是基金 和理财配置信用债的诉求稳定。遗憾的是，补涨未现，调整先行，这是经历过去"急涨"后，首次出现情绪上的波动。 信用债久期还面临什么问题？ 第一，过于平坦的收益率曲线，难以兼顾流动性和收益。信用债极致的期限利差收窄，一是要借助资产荒行情，比如 去年 5 月至 7 月，二是利差有压缩的空间，然而两个条件似乎目前都不太具备。不仅是利率低位还未突破，难构成资 产荒，而且拉长时间维度来看，期限利差难继续收窄。以 AA+城投债 5 年与 1 年期限利差为例，1 月上旬利率低位时， 该样本期限利差约在 23bp，目前的读数为 21bp，要进一步收窄则取决于是否诞生更强力的催化剂，打开短端空间， 而这也决定着中长久期信用债收益的底部。第二，绝对收益过低，不宜炒作信用债。4 月以来，不同等级关键期限城 投债和中票平均资本利得达到 0.35%，几乎是票息贡献的 3 倍。矛盾的是，一般信用债交易难度不小， ...

行情回顾 本周板块表现：上周（2025/04/14-2025/04/18）5 个交易日，SW 机械设备指数下跌 0.73%，在申万 31 个一级行 业分类中排名第 27；同期沪深 300 指数上涨 0.59%。2025 年至今表现：SW 机械设备指数上涨 1.10%，在申万 31 个一级行业分类中排名第 7；同期沪深 300 指数下跌 4.13%。 核心观点 投资建议 见"股票组合"。 风险提示 宏观经济变化风险；原材料价格波动风险；政策变化的风险。 敬请参阅最后一页特别声明 1 燃机国产化加速推进，应流股份燃机叶片订单高增。燃气轮机是关系国家安全和国民经济增长的重大动力装 备，国产化的重要程度高。叶片是燃机的核心零部件，价值量占比 35%左右，技术壁垒较高，也是燃机国产化 率提升的主要突破点。近年来，随着国家政策的不断支持，我国叶片制造技术不断提升。截至 2024 年末，国内 叶片龙头应流股份的燃机叶片已经覆盖 E、F、G/H 等级多款型号燃气轮机，随着技术提升叠加行业需求上行， 公司 2024 年燃机领域订单同比+103%。近日，应流股份子公司应流航源承担的某型重型燃气轮机透平第二级动 叶铸件在霍山通过首 ...

Investment Rating - The report suggests a positive outlook for the home furnishing sector, new tobacco, and light consumer goods, while indicating a cautious stance on the paper packaging industry due to weak demand and unclear tariff trends [4][6][16][19]. Core Insights - The home furnishing sector shows signs of recovery with a 29.5% year-on-year increase in retail sales in March, driven by consumption subsidies. However, Q1 earnings for many companies are expected to face pressure [6][13]. - The new tobacco sector is poised for growth as regulatory actions against illegal e-cigarettes in the U.S. may expand the compliant market, with companies like Smoore International showing strong confidence through significant share purchases [19]. - The paper packaging industry is currently experiencing weak pricing trends due to seasonal demand and uncertain tariff impacts, with recommendations to focus on companies with lower exposure to U.S. tariffs [16]. Summary by Sections Home Furnishing Sector - Domestic retail sales of furniture increased by 29.5% year-on-year in March, and 18.1% for the first three months of the year, reflecting the impact of consumption subsidies [6][13]. - Companies like Sophia and Gujia Home are highlighted for their strategic positioning and potential for earnings recovery, with Sophia's PE ratio at 12x indicating significant valuation upside [13]. - The report emphasizes the importance of focusing on domestic leaders with high dividend support and attractive valuations in the home furnishing sector [6][13]. New Tobacco Sector - The U.S. is increasing regulatory scrutiny on illegal e-cigarettes, which may benefit compliant brands and the overall market expansion [19]. - Smoore International is recommended due to its competitive positioning and growth potential in the heated tobacco product (HNB) segment, supported by its collaboration with British American Tobacco [19]. Paper Packaging Sector - The report notes a weak pricing environment for paper products, with prices for various types of paper remaining stable or declining slightly as of April 18 [16]. - The packaging sector is expected to benefit from new consumer electronics subsidies, with companies like Yutong Technology positioned favorably due to their limited exposure to U.S. tariffs [16]. Light Consumer Goods - The pet food sector shows strong growth, with a 23% increase in GMV for Q1, while baby diaper sales also saw a significant rise [17]. - The report highlights the potential for brands like Bubble Mart and Guibao Pet to capitalize on the growing domestic market and consumer trends [17]. Two-Wheel Vehicles - The sector is experiencing a positive trend driven by the "old-for-new" policy, with Q1 production up 25% year-on-year to 11 million units [18]. - The report suggests focusing on leading companies with integrated supply chains and strong product performance as the market continues to recover [18].

本周化工市场综述 本周市场的关注重心依然在于关税，但关税豁免的反反复复进一步打乱了市场预期，以电子产品为例，先是被 豁免，但之后有报道称被豁免的电子产品将被征收单独关税；关税的变化也会对产业链的库存行为产生影响，由于 关税的节奏和幅度超预期，市场没有足够的时间储备库存，接下来产业链可能会处于加速去库阶段，一旦关税反 转，可能会发生阶段性大补库，以贸易数据平台 Vizion 提供的数据为例，由于关税不确定性，过去七天，前往美国 的集装箱预订量相比前一周大幅下降 67%，从美国出发的集装箱预订量下降 40%。 油价方面，本周 OPEC 和 IEA 先后下调石油需求预期，短周期看，原油供需矛盾加剧，油价有继续承压的可能， 但站在中期看，我们认为油价的加速触底反而是中周期的大行情的起点。 AI 行业，本周 OpenAI 推出首个 Nano 模型，随后发布新款 AI 模型，模仿人类的推理过程，解决复杂编程和视觉 任务的推理，这是该公司首次推出能够独立使用全部 ChatGPT 工具的推理模型——包括网页浏览、Python 编程、图 像理解和图像生成能力。除此之外，字节发布豆包 1.5 深度思考模型，能看图思考。 流动性方 ...

Investment Rating - The report suggests a strong growth outlook for the home appliance industry, particularly driven by government subsidies and the upcoming peak stocking season, indicating a positive investment sentiment [6][53]. Core Insights - In March 2025, the retail sales of home appliances reached 100.1 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year increase of 35.1%, significantly higher than the growth rates in January and February [2][13]. - The online and offline retail sales for the first quarter of 2025 (excluding 3C products) grew by 4.7% and 12.8% year-on-year, respectively [2][13]. - The "trade-in" policy and other consumption incentives have effectively boosted the consumer market, leading to a notable increase in domestic sales [2][13]. Market Performance - The white goods sector showed stable performance, with significant growth in online sales of standalone dryers and double-digit growth in offline sales of refrigerators and washing machines [2][16]. - The kitchen and bathroom appliances sector is showing signs of recovery, with notable increases in offline sales of range hoods and gas stoves [2][23]. - The cleaning appliances segment continues to perform strongly, with online sales of air purifiers and water purifiers increasing by 46.3% and 25.6% year-on-year, respectively [2][25]. Company Announcements - Hisense Vision reported a revenue of 58.53 billion yuan for 2024, a year-on-year increase of 9.17%, with a net profit of 2.246 billion yuan, up 7.17% [47]. - Supor achieved a revenue of 22.427 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting a growth of 5.27% year-on-year, with a net profit increase of 2.244 billion yuan [47]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on domestic demand and subsidy-driven opportunities, suggesting companies like Gree Electric, Midea Group, and Hisense Home Appliances as potential investment targets [6][53]. - For companies with significant exports to the U.S., it is advised to select those with production facilities concentrated in the US-Mexico-Canada Agreement area [6][53].

Investment Rating - The report rates the industry as "Buy" with an expectation of over 15% increase in the next 3-6 months [40] Core Insights - Offline Retail: Yonghui's new modified stores are performing excellently, with a significant acceleration in modification progress. The first modified store in Wuhan saw a customer flow increase of over 300% and sales growth exceeding 10 times [11][12] - Online Retail: JD's takeaway orders have surpassed 5 million, with plans to recruit at least 50,000 full-time delivery personnel. The long-term impact of this expansion remains to be observed [18][19] Summary by Sections 1. Core Insights and Company Dynamics - Yonghui's modified stores are showing outstanding performance, with a significant increase in customer traffic and sales [11][12] - JD's takeaway service has achieved over 5 million orders, indicating a strong market entry, but the long-term effects are still uncertain due to existing competitive barriers [18][19] 2. Industry Data Tracking - GMV performance for the first week of April shows a year-on-year increase of 14.4% for Tmall and JD combined [20] - The top five categories for growth include consumer electronics, home appliances, food and beverages, maternal and infant products, and outdoor sports [20] 3. Market Review - The retail sector saw a slight increase of 0.24% in the last week, ranking 6th among nine major consumption sectors [27] - Notable stock performances included Guoguang Chain and Guofang Group, while Yonghui Supermarket experienced a decline [27][34] 4. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on domestic retail giants like Yonghui Supermarket, which are expected to benefit from domestic demand and supply chain disruptions [35] - For online retail, Tencent and Meituan are highlighted as companies likely to benefit from improvements in their respective business models and market conditions [36][37]

Investment Rating - The industry is rated as "Buy" with expectations of an upward movement exceeding 15% in the next 3-6 months [11][48]. Core Insights - The report highlights a significant acceleration in the growth of the catering sector, with March retail catering revenue increasing by 5.6% year-on-year, up from 4.3% in the previous month. Notably, revenue from enterprises above a certain threshold rose by 6.8%, marking the first time in 12 months that this segment outpaced overall growth [2][18]. - The "2025 Service Consumption Quality Improvement and Benefit Action Plan" was released, outlining 48 specific measures across six areas to enhance service consumption, including catering, accommodation, and tourism [2][21]. - High booking interest for the upcoming May Day holiday was reported, with hotel and flight searches on Ctrip increasing by 100% and 80% respectively week-on-week, and a year-on-year increase of 200% in hotel searches for inbound travel [3][22]. Summary by Sections Industry Updates - The catering sector continues to show improvement, with March retail catering revenue growth accelerating. The report emphasizes the importance of service consumption policies and the upcoming May Day holiday as key drivers [2][18]. - The acquisition of Wanda Hotel Management by Tongcheng Travel for approximately 2.497 billion yuan is noted, with an EV/EBITDA valuation of 9.5 times. This acquisition is seen as strategically beneficial for enhancing Tongcheng's hotel supply chain [4][26]. Market Performance - The report indicates that the social service sector has shown a strong performance, with the sector's index rising by 8.64% over the past two weeks, ranking third among 31 major industry sectors [8][29]. - Specific stock performances are highlighted, with notable increases in the catering sector, including a 12.73% rise in A-share catering stocks [8][29]. Company Performance - Action Education reported a revenue of 780 million yuan for 2024, reflecting a 16.5% increase, with a net profit of 270 million yuan, up 22.4% [5][28]. - Jiuhua Tourism is expected to achieve a net profit of approximately 69 million yuan in Q1 2025, representing a 32% year-on-year growth, driven by strong visitor traffic [4][27]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on the catering sector, particularly on growth-oriented companies and undervalued leaders affected by tariff impacts, with specific mentions of brands like Gu Ming and Da Shi [9][16]. - In the hotel and tourism sectors, attention is drawn to quality scenic spots and hotel stocks, particularly Shou Lv Hotel [9][16].

Investment Rating - The report indicates a neutral investment rating for the agricultural sector, with expectations of limited price fluctuations in the near term [87]. Core Insights - The agricultural sector index decreased by 2.15% this week, while the overall market indices showed mixed performance, with the agricultural sector outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index [12][13]. - New Zealand's beef prices are expected to rise due to global price increases, benefiting local exporters as over 90% of beef is exported [3][23]. - The pig farming sector is experiencing a supply pressure with a potential price decline, but the overall market sentiment is stabilizing after previous pessimism [4][41]. - Poultry prices are showing signs of recovery, particularly for white feather chickens, as consumer demand gradually improves [5][57]. - The dairy and beef sectors are expected to see a recovery in prices due to supply reductions and increasing consumer demand [65]. Summary by Sections 1. Market Review - The agricultural index closed at 2612.71 points, down 2.15% week-on-week, while the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1.19% [12][16]. 2. New Zealand Beef Market - New Zealand's beef industry is closely linked to its dairy sector, with a significant portion of beef coming from dairy cows. The beef production in 2024 is projected at 694,300 tons, with exports primarily to the US and China [3][20][23]. 3. Pig Farming - The average weight of pigs at market is 128.57 kg, with a slight decrease from the previous week. The current price for pigs is 14.97 yuan/kg, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 2.11% [4][39]. - The report suggests that the pig farming sector is at a low valuation point, with potential for recovery if supply constraints are managed effectively [41][42]. 4. Poultry Farming - White feather chicken prices have increased to 7.50 yuan/kg, with a recovery in demand noted. The report highlights a significant drop in breeding stock, which may impact future production [5][57]. - The overall poultry market is expected to benefit from improved consumer demand and a shift towards higher-quality products [5][57]. 5. Dairy and Beef Industry - The dairy sector is facing a reduction in production capacity, which is expected to stabilize prices in the latter half of 2025. The beef market is also showing signs of recovery with rising prices for calves and live cattle [65][66]. 6. Planting Industry - Grain prices are showing slight increases, with corn prices at 2,204.29 yuan/ton, reflecting a week-on-week rise of 0.26%. The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring price trends in the context of trade tensions [66][68]. 7. Feed and Aquaculture - Feed prices have stabilized, with pig feed at 3.35 yuan/kg. Aquaculture prices remain steady, with slight fluctuations noted in specific species [77][80].

Investment Rating - The report indicates a neutral investment rating for the agricultural sector, with expectations of limited price fluctuations in the near term [87]. Core Insights - The agricultural sector index decreased by 2.15% this week, while the overall market indices showed mixed performance, with the agricultural sector outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index [12][13]. - New Zealand's beef prices are expected to rise due to increasing global beef prices, benefiting local exporters [3][23]. - The pig farming sector is experiencing a supply pressure with a potential for price declines, but the overall sentiment is stabilizing after previous pessimism [4][41]. - Poultry prices are showing signs of recovery, particularly for white feather chickens, as consumer demand gradually improves [5][57]. - The dairy and beef sectors are anticipated to see a recovery in prices as supply constraints develop [66]. Summary by Sections 1. Market Review - The agricultural index closed at 2612.71 points, down 2.15% week-on-week, while the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1.19% [12][13]. - The top-performing sectors this week were banking and real estate, while agriculture ranked lower [13]. 2. New Zealand Beef Market - New Zealand's beef industry is heavily export-oriented, with over 90% of beef produced being exported [3][23]. - The beef production in New Zealand for 2024 is projected at 694,300 tons, a decrease of 3.89% year-on-year, with exports expected to follow a similar trend [23]. 3. Pig Farming - The average weight of pigs at market is 128.57 kg, indicating a high level compared to historical data [4][40]. - The current price for pigs is 14.97 CNY/kg, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 2.11% [39]. - The report suggests that the pig farming sector is at a valuation bottom, with potential for recovery if supply constraints are managed [41][42]. 4. Poultry Farming - The average price for white feather chickens has increased to 7.50 CNY/kg, up 2.18% from the previous week [57]. - The poultry sector is expected to benefit from a recovery in consumer demand and a potential increase in high-end product consumption [5][57]. 5. Dairy and Beef Industry - The dairy sector is facing a reduction in production capacity, which may lead to price stabilization in the latter half of 2025 [66]. - The report highlights a potential upward trend in beef prices as supply constraints are expected to tighten [66]. 6. Planting Industry - The report notes fluctuations in grain prices, with corn prices at 2,204.29 CNY/ton, reflecting a slight increase [66]. - The planting sector is expected to stabilize as domestic agricultural policies are implemented [68]. 7. Feed and Aquaculture - Feed prices have remained stable, with pig feed priced at 3.35 CNY/kg [77]. - Aquaculture prices are also stable, with no significant changes reported in major fish species [77].

证券板块 东方证券、东北证券发布 2025Q1 业绩盈喜预告。东方证券 2025Q1 实现营业收入 53.82 亿元，实现归母净利润 14.36 亿元，分别较上年同期增加 49.04%和 62.08%，主要原因是证券自营业务和财富管理业务收入同比增加。东北证券 2025Q1 实现营业收入 14.85 亿元，较上年同期增长 25.94%；实现归母净利润 2.02 亿元，较上年同期增长 859.84%， 主要是公司投资业务和证券经纪业务收入同比增长所致。 投资建议：多家公司发布业绩预增公告，在市场交投延续活跃以及低基数效应影响下，券商 25Q1 经纪、自营业务向 好驱动业绩表现同比大幅提升。券商和多元板块建议关注四条主线：（1）四川双马：科技赛道占优+退出渠道改善，业 绩弹性可期。公司管理基金的已投项目——奕斯伟（半导体材料，2024/12/24 状态更新为已问询）、邦德激光（高端 装备，2024/1/3 进行上市辅导备案）、屹唐半导体（2025/3/13 证监会批复注册）、群核科技（"杭州六小龙"之一， 2025/2/14 向港交所递交上市申请）、丽豪半导体（公司称拟最快 2025 年下半年赴港 IPO，集资 ...