2025 年 04 月 20 日 社会服务业行业研究 行业周报 证券研究报告 国金证券研究所 分析师：叶思嘉（执业 S1130523080001） yesijia＠gjzq.com.cn 分析师：赵中平（执业 S1130524050003） zhaozhongping＠gjzq.com.cn 餐饮社零继续提速，关注服务消费政策落地及五一带动 周观点 餐饮社零增速加快。3 月社零餐饮收入同比+5.6%（前值 4.3%），其中限额以上企业收入同比+6.8%（前值+3.6%）， 继 1-2 月后环比继续提速，其中限额以上增速为近 12 个月以来首次超过整体增速。 2025 服务消费工作方案出台。4 月 16 日商务部等 9 部门印发《服务消费提质惠民行动 2025 年工作方案》，围绕加 强政策支持、开展促进活动、搭建平台载体、扩大对外开放、强化标准引领、优化消费环境等 6 个方面，提出 48 条 具体任务举措，涵盖了餐饮、住宿、旅游休闲等主要行业领域，包括了旅游列车、空中游览等新业态、新场景。 OTA 平台数据显示五一旅游预定热度较高。今年五一假期调休天数较 24 年减少 1 天，前后拼假或更为灵活。根据携 程 4 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the pharmaceutical sector, particularly on innovative drugs and their internationalization process, while suggesting a focus on blood products and scientific instruments in the short term [4][18]. Core Insights - The pharmaceutical sector has shown stable stock performance, with significant approvals for innovative drugs such as the IL-21/IL-23 dual antibody by Kangfang Biopharma and the successful phase 3 clinical trial results for Eli Lilly's orforglipron [1][2][18]. - The report emphasizes the resilience and growth potential of the pharmaceutical sector amidst changing external tariff environments, highlighting low geopolitical risks for innovative drugs and opportunities for domestic replacements in blood products and medical devices [4][18]. - The report suggests a continuous focus on innovative and semi-innovative drug companies, as well as potential recovery in the performance of generic drugs, chain pharmacies, and traditional Chinese medicine post-Q1 reports [4][20]. Summary by Sections Pharmaceutical Sector - Kangfang Biopharma's IL-21/IL-23 dual antibody has been approved for moderate to severe plaque psoriasis, marking a significant milestone as the first domestic drug of its kind [19]. - The approval of AstraZeneca's capivasertib for second-line breast cancer treatment further highlights the growing number of innovative drugs being approved in China [23][25]. - The report anticipates a surge in licensing transactions as Chinese innovative drug assets mature, leading to more predictable performance for pharmaceutical companies [2][25]. Biological Products - Eli Lilly's orforglipron has successfully completed phase 3 clinical trials, demonstrating superior A1C reduction compared to placebo, which positions it as a leading oral GLP-1 receptor agonist [26][29]. - The report encourages monitoring the progress of domestic GLP-1 small molecules, which are showing promising clinical results [33][34]. Medical Devices - Domestic companies are making significant strides in innovative research and development, with products like the LiqMagic peripheral vascular shockwave treatment system gaining traction in clinical applications [35][36]. - The report notes that the innovative technology in vascular treatment is expected to enhance patient outcomes and reduce procedural risks [35][36]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on innovative and semi-innovative drug companies such as Kelun-Biotech, Kangfang Biopharma, and Huadong Medicine, as well as blood products and scientific instruments for potential domestic replacements [5][20]. - It also suggests paying attention to the recovery of generic drugs, chain pharmacies, and traditional Chinese medicine as the market stabilizes post-Q1 [4][20].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the simulated portfolio's returns continued to decline, but the interest - rate style strategy still had a small positive return. Credit style's secondary bond sinking and secondary bond bullet - type strategies had relatively high returns in their respective style groups [2]. - In terms of risk resistance, strategies with heavy positions in certificates of deposit (CDs) and secondary capital bonds were more resilient to fluctuations, while the returns of strategies with heavy positions in ultra - long bonds declined significantly [2]. - Currently, the coupon income of various strategy portfolios has been declining for four consecutive weeks, and capital gain losses have significantly dragged down the overall returns. Bond coupon income this week could not cover capital gain losses, especially for portfolios with longer durations [3]. - In the past four weeks, the non - financial credit duration strategy's cumulative excess return remained leading. Among different strategy durations, mid - to long - term bullet - type strategies generally had difficulty achieving excess returns but were better than dumbbell - type allocations [4]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Combination Strategy Return Tracking 3.1.1 Portfolio Weekly Return Overview - As of April 18, 2025, the cumulative returns of the interest - rate style and credit style portfolios this year were lower than those of the same period in the past two years, but the performance of the interest - rate style portfolio was approaching that of the same period in 2023. In the credit style portfolio, the cumulative comprehensive returns of the urban investment short - end sinking, urban investment duration, and urban investment bullet - type portfolios led, reaching 0.66%, 0.55%, and 0.49% respectively, and the interest - rate style portfolio's returns generally exceeded those of the credit style portfolio [10]. - This week, in the interest - rate style portfolio, the secondary bond sinking and secondary bond bullet - type strategy portfolios had higher returns, at 0.08% each. In the credit style portfolio, the secondary bond sinking and secondary bond bullet - type strategies were among the few with non - negative returns, with weekly return readings of 0.02% and 0% respectively [2]. - By heavy - position bond types, the CD and secondary capital bond heavy - position strategies were more resilient to fluctuations. The average weekly return of the credit style CD heavy - position portfolio dropped to - 0.02%, with a relatively small drawdown. The average weekly return of the urban investment heavy - position portfolio decreased to - 0.05%, and the comprehensive return of this portfolio decreased by an average of 36.1bp. The secondary capital bond heavy - position portfolio was resilient this week, with its average weekly return decreasing by 27.8bp, and the secondary bond bullet - type and sinking strategies did not turn negative. The returns of the ultra - long bond heavy - position strategy declined significantly, with the return of the urban investment ultra - long - type portfolio, which led last week, dropping by 83bp [2]. 3.1.2 Portfolio Weekly Return Sources - Currently, the coupon income of various strategy portfolios has been declining for four consecutive weeks, and capital gain losses have significantly dragged down the returns. Among the main strategies, the coupon of the urban investment short - end sinking strategy was still above 0.039%, better than that of the urban investment dumbbell - type portfolio, but this week's coupon of this strategy decreased by 0.12bp, with a decline rate exceeding that of most other strategies. This week, bond coupon income could not cover capital gain losses, especially for portfolios with longer durations, and the comprehensive returns were generally significantly affected [3]. 3.2 Credit Strategy Excess Return Tracking - In the past four weeks, the non - financial credit duration strategy's cumulative excess return remained leading. The cumulative readings of the urban investment dumbbell - type, urban investment duration, and perpetual bond duration strategy portfolios reached 29.4bp, 18.1bp, and 11.9bp respectively. Strategies with leading cumulative returns mostly had obvious excess advantages in the past three weeks but gave back some of their previous returns this week. Strategies such as the secondary bond and commercial financial bond bullet - type, which were dominant this week, still had negative cumulative excess returns [4]. - In terms of strategy duration, mid - to long - term bullet - type strategies generally had difficulty achieving excess returns but were better than dumbbell - type allocations. For short - term strategies, the excess returns of the CD and urban investment sinking portfolios were both negative, but the deviation of the CD strategy from the benchmark narrowed, slightly better than the urban investment sinking strategy. For mid - to long - term strategies, the urban investment duration, secondary bond bullet, secondary bond sinking, and commercial financial bond bullet - type portfolios had positive excess returns within 4bp, while most other portfolios had readings above - 3bp, showing no obvious differentiation in strategy performance. The decline of the ultra - long bond strategy far exceeded that of the mid - to long - term strategies, and the excess return was close to the level at the beginning of March. All types of portfolios underperformed the benchmark, especially the urban investment ultra - long - type strategy, whose reading dropped to - 23.4bp [4]. 3.3 Attachment: Simulated Portfolio Allocation Method The report details the allocation methods for different combination styles (interest - rate style and credit style) and various credit strategies, including the allocation ratios of interest - rate and credit parts [43].

其中机构行为分位值多回落，基金久期及分歧度、基金-农商买入量、基金超长债买入量分位值不同程度回落，同时 市场及政策利差分位值也分别回落 5 个、11 个百分点。除此外，比价分位值多上升，相对换手率分位值也有所回升。 当前拥挤度较高的指标包括 30/10Y 国债换手率、基金超长债买入量、上市公司理财买入量。 本期位于偏热区间的指标数量占比降至 15% 20 个微观指标中，位于过热区间的指标数量下降至 3 个（占比 15%），位于中性区间的指标数量上升至 9 个（占比 45%）， 位于偏冷区间的指标数量上升至 8 个（占比 40%）。其中发生变化的是，30/10Y 国债换手率由中性区间升至过热区间， 全市场换手率、政策利差均由过热区间降至中性区间，基金-农商买入量也由过热区间降至偏冷区间。 本期微观交易温度计读数小幅回落 2 个百分点至 46% 机构行为、利差分位均值回落 ①本期 30/10Y、1/10Y 分位值、机构杠杆分位值不同程度回升，不过全市场换手率分位值下降 10 个百分点，交易热 度均值上升 7 个百分点。②机构行为分位值多下降，其中基金久期及分歧度、基金超长债买入量、基金-农商买入量 分位值、货币松 ...

1.65%定价合理吗？ 过去一周，10 年国债利率在 1.65%附近窄幅区间震荡，等待海内外形势进一步明朗。市场选择在这一位置等待是否合 理？考虑到贸易摩擦传导路径、各国可能的政策响应，以及最终对产业链的影响均存在高度不确定性，本文不直接量 化事件冲击本身，而是尝试通过横向比较不同大类资产对该事件冲击的价格反应，间接衡量债市反应强度是否合理。 视角一：事件冲击后，各大类资产价格对应的利率中枢是多少？ 分析方法：选择与利率高度相关的资产价格（包括螺纹钢、煤焦钢矿指数、非金属建材指数等反映国内需求的商品价 格指标；伦敦金、铜金比等代表全球需求与风险情绪的定价锚；以及沪深 300、房地产指数、恒生科技、MSCI 全球等 一系列海内外核心股指，用于刻画市场风险偏好、基本面预期、流动性等变化），针对这些资产价格构建与 10 年期国 债利率的回归模型，并推导出利率中枢的合理范围。 结论： 视角二：外部冲击后，全球 10 年期国债利率下行了多少？ 外部冲击显著升温以来，全球主要经济体 10 年期国债收益率多数下行，反映出较为一致的避险情绪。中国 10 年期国 债收益率下行 13.94bp，在全球样本中位于中等偏低位置。若剔 ...

本周化工市场综述 政策方面，李强表示，以更大力度促进消费、扩大内需、做强国内大循环。在一些关键的时间窗口，推动各方 面政策措施早出手、快出手，对预期形成积极影响。 投资方面，当下预期较为混乱，建议继续以防守为主。龙头方面，我们认为利空或多或少反应在股价，只是向 上弹性不大；除此之外，建议短期规避出口敞口大的方向。 本周市场的关注重心依然在于关税，但关税豁免的反反复复进一步打乱了市场预期，以电子产品为例，先是被 豁免，但之后有报道称被豁免的电子产品将被征收单独关税；关税的变化也会对产业链的库存行为产生影响，由于 关税的节奏和幅度超预期，市场没有足够的时间储备库存，接下来产业链可能会处于加速去库阶段，一旦关税反 转，可能会发生阶段性大补库，以贸易数据平台 Vizion 提供的数据为例，由于关税不确定性，过去七天，前往美国 的集装箱预订量相比前一周大幅下降 67%，从美国出发的集装箱预订量下降 40%。 油价方面，本周 OPEC 和 IEA 先后下调石油需求预期，短周期看，原油供需矛盾加剧，油价有继续承压的可能， 但站在中期看，我们认为油价的加速触底反而是中周期的大行情的起点。 AI 行业，本周 OpenAI 推出 ...

行业观点更新： 投资建议 风险因素 地产竣工恢复速度低于预期；原材料价格大幅上涨；新品推广不及预期；汇率大幅波动。 敬请参阅最后一页特别声明 1 家居板块：内销方面，3 月家具社零同比增长 29.5%，1-3 月社零同比增长 18.1%，一定程度体现出消费补贴的刺 激效果。近期各家家居企业将陆续披露 25 年一季报，预计多数企业 Q1 业绩同比仍有一定压力，待后续前端接单 陆续传导至工厂端叠加后续若更多地产及消费相关刺激政策出台，家居行业部分优质企业的α有望逐步兑现至报 表端。外销方面，目前美国对东南亚地区的对等关税暂停 90 天，此前具备海外产能布局的外销企业短期并未明 显受关税影响，预计 Q1 部分优质出口企业业绩仍较为理想，后续静待相关关税实际落地情况。整体来看，国内 地产端下行风险已相对可控，内需家居板块的配置机会已来临，建议重点关注 25 年业绩增长确定性高并且具备 相对高股息支撑的内销龙头企，此外建议关注部分外销占比相对较低，估值已极具吸引力的优质企业。 新型烟草：近期在英美烟草向美国政府致信后，美国阿拉巴马州总检察长联合其他 27 个州，致信美国政府，希 望政府采取行动，抵制大量非法的电子烟进入 ...

1 2 • 本周主动股票及偏股混合型基金前5大行业：电子（13.84%）、电力设备（8.63%）、汽车（6.70%）、机械设备（6.12%）、医药生物（6.00%）。 • 加仓前3大行业：社会服务(+0.46%）、美容护理(+0.25%）、商贸零售(+0.17%）；减仓前3大行业：通信(-0.29%）、非银金融(-0.23%）、国防军工 (-0.22%）。 • 本周中债10年期国开债到期收益率下行2bps，中长期纯债整体测算久期中位数上升0.02，至2.57年，位于近5年的95.40%分位数。近4周平均久期 中位数为2.56年；本周久期分歧度有所下降，测算久期标准差下降0.09，至1.25年。短期纯债久期中位数下降0.03，至1.05年。 • 信用债基久期中位数上升0.02，至2.28年，操作积极基金占比9%，操作保守基金占比24%；利率债基久期中位数下降0.06，至3.36年，操作积极 基金占比44%，操作保守基金占比5%。 基金股票持仓测算 • 本周2025/04/14-2025/04/18，下同），沪深300上涨0.59%，主动股票及偏股混合基金整体测算股票仓位下降0.70%，至89.21% 。 风险提 ...

3 月白电整体表现稳健，环电表现持续突出。1）白电：线上独立式干衣机显著增长，线下冰洗双位数增长。据奥维云 网，3 月白电各品类中，冰箱、冰柜、洗衣机、独立式干衣机和空调线上零售额规模同比分别为-11.3%、+1.4%、+0.3%、 +123.0% 和+8.4%；线下零售额规模同比分别为+18.9%、-0.5%、+20.6%、+17.1%和-4.3%。2）厨卫：线下呈现复苏态 势，烟灶增幅明显。据奥维云网，3 月厨卫主要品类中，油烟机、燃气灶、洗碗机、集成灶、电热水器和燃热水器的 线上零售额规模同比分别+13.1%、+13.9%、-2.1%、-25.4%、-13.8%和-12.0%；线下零售额规模同比分别为+35.7%、 +41.7%、+43.0%、-16.8%、+20.3%和+21.6%。3）环电：表现持续突出，清洁电器增长强劲。据奥维云网，3 月环电主 要品类中，净化器、净水器、扫地机器人和洗地机线上零售额规模同比分别为+46.3%、+25.6%、+48.3%和+54.6%；线 下零售额规模同比分别为+21.1%、+63.6%、+140.8%和+57.9%。4）彩电：线上线下均实现良好增长。据奥维云网，3 ...

2025 年 04 月 20 日 商贸零售行业研究 买入（首次评级） 行业周报 证券研究报告 线下零售：永辉新调改门店表现优秀，调改进度进一步加速 4 月 11 日，武汉首家胖东来模式调改店于汉阳五里墩万科中心焕新开业，开业三日即呈现客流井喷态势，客流 量同比增长超 300%，销售额同比增长超 10 倍。继一季度先后推出首批 20 家、第二批 24 家调改门店后，4 月 14 日永辉正式发布 2025 年第三批学习胖东来自主调改门店名单，涉及门店数量达 41 家，创单批次调改规模新高。 线上零售：京东外卖订单量超过 500 万单，长期影响仍待观察 4 月 15 日，京东宣布京东品质外卖订单量将超过 500 万单，并且计划本季度将再招收不低于 5 万名全职外卖员， 全额足额全部缴纳五险一金且所有费用都由公司承担。我们认为外卖的商业模式构建在商家、用户和履约端三方 的关系上，且对时效性要求高，从短期维度来看补贴和降佣有望快速扩大用户规模、吸引商家入驻，但从中长期 来看，美团所构建的商户数量壁垒、用户心智壁垒、数据算法对于履约端的调度壁垒不容小觑，对公司的实质性 影响仍待观察。 行业数据追踪 GMV 表现：根据国金 ...