事件 4月21日，中保协召开人身险评估利率专家咨询委员会Q1例会，认为当前普通型人身保险产品预定利率研究值为2.13%， 较 Q4 的 2.34%下调 21bps，意味着预定利率降要下调。 核心内容 下调时间：此前《关于建立预定利率与市场利率挂钩及动态调整机制有关事项的通知》规定，当公司在售普通型人身 险产品预定利率连续 2 个季度比研究值高 25 个基点及以上时，要及时下调新产品预定利率，并在 2 个月内平稳做好 新老产品切换工作。利率低位下预计 7 月公布的 Q2 研究值也将低于 2.25%，则要进行下调，若考虑 2 个月的缓冲期， 则预计下调时间为 9 月。 行业点评 扫码获取更多服务 下调幅度：理论上至少需要下调 25bps。但考虑到利率延续低位下，预计 Q3 研究值也很难向上突破 2.25%，若此次预 定利率下调至 2.25%则意味着 Q4 还需再次下调，因此预计传统险预定利率或直接降至 2%。 投资建议 预定利率进一步下调后，传统险产品竞争力下降难以避免，分红险销售能力更为凸显。当前上市险企正积极推动分红 险转型，且已有一定成效，其中中国太平分红险转型坚定，1-2 月个险和银保渠道的分红险占比分别 ...

ETF 市场回顾 从一级市场资金流动情况来看，上周（2025.4.14-2025.4.18）已上市 ETF 资金净流入合计 587.54 亿元，其中股票型 ETF 资金净流入 342.72 亿元，商品型 ETF 资金净流入 115.33 亿元，债券型 ETF 资金净流入 83.46 亿元，跨境 ETF 资 金净流入 46.04 亿元。 在股票型 ETF 中，宽基 ETF 上周资金净流入 379.97 亿元，上周沪深 300ETF 资金净流入 340.90 亿元，上证 50ETF 资 金净流入 78.75 亿元，中证 500ETF 资金净流入 35.32 亿元，科创板综合 ETF 资金净流入 31.17 亿元，中证 1000ETF 资金净流入 17.85 亿元。 主题行业 ETF 上周资金净流入-23.06 亿元。上周医药生物板块 ETF 资金净流入额为 5.34 亿元，科技、周期、高端制 造、消费、金融地产板块 ETF 资金净流出额分别为 0.23 亿元、1.89 亿元、4.87 亿元、5.02 亿元、13.01 亿元。 上周申报的 ETF 中包含 2 只科创板综合增强策略 ETF、1 只科创板综合价格增强策 ...

原油 本周重大变化：OPEC+部分成员国提交补偿性减产承诺。 油价展望：60 美元/桶为布油强支撑价。目前油价主要利好包括：1）油价下跌后供应端或将做出反应；2）伊核谈判 不顺利的风险；3）OPEC+的补偿性减产。布油在跌至约 60 美元/桶后，基于以上利好以及情绪修复，从底部涨幅已 超过 10%，该支撑价得到验证，在目前的供需下，布油跌破 60 美元/桶的概率较低。根据目前已发生的利好，油价继 续上行的动力较弱，若看到 OPEC+降低增产速度或美国、巴西等地的原油开采活动降温，则油价将进一步上涨。 本周行情：2025 年 4 月 17 日，布伦特期货价(连续)为 67.96 美元/桶，本周上涨 3.20 美元/桶。WTI 期货价(连续)分 别收于 64.68 美元/桶，本周上涨 3.18 美元/桶。 供给端：可继续预期利好。OPEC+部分成员国提交了新的补偿性减产承诺，虽然补偿性承诺未必会落实，但在当前 也是为油价注射了一支强心剂。在 OPEC+未开启价格战的前提下，基于接近 60 美元/桶的布油价格，可开始预期 OPEC+推迟增产。 煤炭 本周行情：2025 年 4 月 17 日，秦皇岛 Q5500 动力 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with expected growth in net profit for the years 2025 to 2027 being 30.48%, 28.61%, and 28.54% respectively [5]. Core Insights - The company reported a record high in revenue and net profit for Q1 2025, with revenue reaching 1.461 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 16.03% [3]. - The company is diversifying its business into emerging markets, particularly in automotive and data center sectors, which are expected to drive future growth [4]. - The gross margin for Q1 2025 was 36.56%, reflecting improvements in product mix and operational efficiency [3]. Performance Analysis - In Q1 2025, the company's revenue from signal processing, power management, automotive electronics, and other segments showed varied growth rates, with automotive electronics growing by 65.46% year-on-year [3]. - The automotive business is entering a phase of accelerated growth, with products like high-reliability transformers and inductors being adopted by major clients [4]. Financial Forecast - The projected revenue for 2025 is 7.271 billion RMB, with a growth rate of 23.30% [10]. - The expected net profit for 2025 is 1.086 billion RMB, indicating a significant increase from previous years [10]. - The company's price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is projected to decrease from 20 in 2025 to 12 in 2027, suggesting a favorable valuation trend [5].

原油 本周重大变化：OPEC+部分成员国提交补偿性减产承诺。 煤炭 油价展望：60 美元/桶为布油强支撑价。目前油价主要利好包括：1）油价下跌后供应端或将做出反应；2）伊核谈判 不顺利的风险；3）OPEC+的补偿性减产。布油在跌至约 60 美元/桶后，基于以上利好以及情绪修复，从底部涨幅已 超过 10%，该支撑价得到验证，在目前的供需下，布油跌破 60 美元/桶的概率较低。根据目前已发生的利好，油价继 续上行的动力较弱，若看到 OPEC+降低增产速度或美国、巴西等地的原油开采活动降温，则油价将进一步上涨。 本周行情：2025 年 4 月 17 日，布伦特期货价(连续)为 67.96 美元/桶，本周上涨 3.20 美元/桶。WTI 期货价(连续)分 别收于 64.68 美元/桶，本周上涨 3.18 美元/桶。 供给端：可继续预期利好。OPEC+部分成员国提交了新的补偿性减产承诺，虽然补偿性承诺未必会落实，但在当前 也是为油价注射了一支强心剂。在 OPEC+未开启价格战的前提下，基于接近 60 美元/桶的布油价格，可开始预期 OPEC+推迟增产。 需求端：利空。国内公路出行同比下滑，美国成品油需求近期下滑较快；中 ...

2024 年 4 月 18 日，公司发布 25 年一季报，25 年一季度实 现营收 62.6 亿元，同比微增 1.22%；实现归母净利润 6.53 亿元，同比增长 16.45%；实现归母扣非净利润 5.04 亿元， 同比微增 0.44%。 结合 25 年一季度、24 全年情况与未来国内需求回暖预期， 我 们 调 整 公 司 2025~2027 年 营 业 收 入 预 测 分 别 为 338.7/362.7/391.2 亿元，同比增长 5.26%/7.08%/7.85%；预 测 归 母净 利润 分别 为 32.5/37.8/41.7 亿 元， 同比 增 长 11.78%/16.33%/10.31%，分别对应 16X/14X/12X PE，维持 "买入"评级。 国内宏观复苏不及预期的风险；地缘政治环境趋紧的风险； 汇率波动的风险；竞争加剧的风险。 0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 8,000 9,000 10,000 12.00 14.00 16.00 18.00 20.00 22.00 240422 240722 241022 250122 人民币(元) 成 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with projected earnings multiples of 18.7X, 15.4X, and 13X for the years 2025 to 2027 respectively [3]. Core Views - The company is expected to see revenue growth of 6.6%, 9.5%, and 10.8% from 2025 to 2027, with projected revenues of 986.0 billion, 1,079.9 billion, and 1,195.9 billion RMB respectively [3]. - The forecasted net profit attributable to the parent company is 139.9 billion, 169.7 billion, and 201.5 billion RMB for the years 2025 to 2027, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 16.8%, 21.3%, and 18.7% [3]. Revenue and Profit Forecast - The company’s revenue for 2024 is reported at 924.96 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 3.53%, while the net profit is 119.7 billion RMB, showing a decline of 15.1% [9]. - For Q1 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 185.32 billion RMB, a growth of 4.01%, and a net profit of 20.39 billion RMB, up 6.41% year-on-year [9]. Business Segmentation - The overseas and innovative business segments are performing well, with revenues of 224.84 billion and 259.89 billion RMB in 2024, representing growth rates of 21.19% and 8.39% respectively [9]. - Domestic business segments, including PBG, EBG, and SMBG, reported revenues of 134.67 billion, 176.51 billion, and 119.71 billion RMB, showing declines of 12.29%, 1.09%, and 5.58% respectively [9]. Cost Management and Profitability - The gross margin for 2024 and Q1 2025 was 43.83% and 44.92%, indicating stability despite a challenging demand environment [10]. - The company has begun to see the effects of cost control measures, with a focus on improving efficiency and profitability [10]. Research and Development Investment - Over the past five years, the company has invested a total of 477.02 billion RMB in R&D, enhancing its competitive edge in AI, big data, and software [11]. Dividend Policy - The company has maintained a high dividend payout, with a cash dividend rate exceeding 48% since 2015, reaching 53.73% in 2024 [12].

Quantitative Models and Factor Analysis Quantitative Models and Construction - **Model Name**: Macro Timing Strategy **Construction Idea**: This model evaluates macroeconomic signals to determine equity allocation recommendations. It incorporates economic growth and monetary liquidity signals to generate timing signals for equity investments[4][27]. **Construction Process**: 1. The model assigns weights to two dimensions: economic growth and monetary liquidity. 2. Signal strength is calculated for each dimension. For April, the economic growth signal strength was 0%, while the monetary liquidity signal strength was 50%[27]. 3. Based on these signals, the recommended equity allocation for April was 25%[27]. **Evaluation**: The model provides a systematic approach to macro timing, but its performance is subject to changes in macroeconomic conditions[27]. - **Model Name**: Micro-Cap Timing and Rotation Model **Construction Idea**: This model uses indicators related to market sentiment and fundamentals to monitor micro-cap stock performance and rotation opportunities[31]. **Construction Process**: 1. **Rotation Signal**: The model tracks the relative net value of the Micro-Cap Index and the "Mao Index" (a benchmark index). A signal was triggered on October 14, 2024, when the Micro-Cap Index crossed above its annual moving average[31]. 2. **Risk Warning Indicators**: - **Volatility Congestion**: This indicator reflects market sentiment. On October 15, 2024, the indicator fell below its threshold, deactivating the risk warning[31]. - **10-Year Treasury Yield YoY**: This fundamental indicator remained at -20.45%, below the risk control threshold of 0.3[31]. **Evaluation**: The model effectively combines sentiment and fundamental indicators to guide micro-cap stock investments[31]. Model Backtesting Results - **Macro Timing Strategy**: - Year-to-date return: 1.06% - Benchmark (Wind All A Index) return: 1.90%[27] - **Micro-Cap Timing and Rotation Model**: - Volatility Congestion YoY: -50.09% - 10-Year Treasury Yield YoY: -28.69%[31][32] --- Quantitative Factors and Construction - **Factor Name**: Volume-Price Factors **Construction Idea**: These factors capture market dynamics by analyzing trading volume and price volatility[5]. **Construction Process**: - **Low Trading Volume**: Measures stocks with lower trading activity. - **Low Volatility**: Identifies stocks with stable price movements[5]. **Evaluation**: These factors performed well in a low-risk appetite environment, benefiting from market stability[5]. - **Factor Name**: Consensus Expectation Factor **Construction Idea**: This factor reflects market expectations for stocks with strong earnings forecasts[5]. **Construction Process**: - Derived from analysts' earnings forecasts and target prices. - Tracks changes in consensus expectations over time[5]. **Evaluation**: The factor performed well due to investors' preference for certainty in volatile markets[5]. - **Factor Name**: Convertible Bond Selection Factors **Construction Idea**: These factors predict convertible bond performance based on their relationship with underlying stocks and valuation metrics[46]. **Construction Process**: - **Equity Factors**: Derived from the underlying stock's consensus expectations, growth, financial quality, and valuation. - **Valuation Factor**: Based on the premium rate between the convertible bond's parity and floor price[46]. **Evaluation**: The factors achieved positive returns, indicating their effectiveness in identifying outperforming convertible bonds[46]. Factor Backtesting Results - **Volume-Price Factors**: - Low Trading Volume: Positive performance in a low-risk appetite environment[5]. - Low Volatility: Positive performance in stable market conditions[5]. - **Consensus Expectation Factor**: - Positive performance due to strong earnings forecast alignment[5]. - **Convertible Bond Selection Factors**: - Positive multi-long-short returns for equity consensus expectation, equity valuation, and convertible bond valuation factors[46].

Group 1: ETF Rotation Strategy Tracking - The ETF rotation strategy, constructed using GBDT+NN machine learning factors, has shown strong performance in out-of-sample testing, with an annualized excess return of 11.90% and a maximum drawdown of 17.31% [2][12][17] - Recent performance indicates a weekly excess return of 0.77% and a monthly excess return of 1.10%, while the year-to-date excess return stands at -0.19% [20][24] - The strategy's information ratio is 0.68, reflecting its effectiveness in generating excess returns relative to risk [24] Group 2: High-Frequency Factor Overview - High-frequency factors have demonstrated overall strong performance, with the price range factor yielding a year-to-date excess return of 4.79% and the price-volume divergence factor achieving 10.08% [3][20] - The regret avoidance factor has underperformed with a year-to-date excess return of -0.56%, while the slope convexity factor has shown a year-to-date excess return of -3.64% [3][20] - The high-frequency "gold" combination strategy has an annualized excess return of 10.69% and a maximum drawdown of 6.04% [5][60] Group 3: High-Frequency Factor Performance Tracking - The price range factor measures the activity level of stocks within different price ranges, showing strong predictive power and stable performance this year [4][28] - The price-volume divergence factor assesses the correlation between stock price and trading volume, with recent performance indicating a mixed stability [4][39] - The regret avoidance factor reflects investor behavior, showing stable out-of-sample excess returns, while the slope convexity factor illustrates the impact of order book elasticity on expected returns [4][51] Group 4: Combined Strategies Performance - The high-frequency and fundamental resonance combination strategy has an annualized excess return of 14.98% and a maximum drawdown of 4.52% [5][64] - Recent performance for this combined strategy includes a weekly excess return of 0.63% and a monthly excess return of 2.00%, with a year-to-date excess return of 4.69% [67]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with projected earnings multiples of 18.7X, 15.4X, and 13X for the years 2025 to 2027 respectively [3] Core Views - The company is expected to see revenue growth of 6.6%, 9.5%, and 10.8% for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with projected revenues of 986.0 billion, 1,079.9 billion, and 1,195.9 billion RMB [3] - The forecasted net profit attributable to the parent company is 139.9 billion, 169.7 billion, and 201.5 billion RMB for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 16.8%, 21.3%, and 18.7% [3] Revenue and Profit Forecast - The company achieved a revenue of 924.96 billion RMB in 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 3.53%, while the net profit attributable to the parent company was 119.7 billion RMB, a decline of 15.1% [9] - For Q1 2025, the company reported a revenue of 185.32 billion RMB, up 4.01% year-on-year, and a net profit of 20.39 billion RMB, an increase of 6.41% [9] Business Segmentation - The overseas and innovative business segments showed strong growth, with revenues of 224.84 billion and 259.89 billion RMB in 2024, marking increases of 21.19% and 8.39% respectively [9] - Domestic business segments, including PBG, EBG, and SMBG, reported revenues of 134.67 billion, 176.51 billion, and 119.71 billion RMB, with year-on-year declines of 12.29%, 1.09%, and 5.58% [9] Cost Control and Profitability - The company maintained a gross margin of 43.83% for 2024 and 44.92% for Q1 2025, indicating stability in a challenging demand environment [10] - The company has begun to see the effects of cost control measures, with a reduction in various expense ratios in Q1 2025 compared to the previous year [10] Research and Development Investment - Over the past five years, the company has invested a total of 477.02 billion RMB in R&D, focusing on AI, multi-dimensional perception, big data, and software [11] Dividend Policy - The company has consistently maintained a high dividend payout ratio, with cash dividends exceeding 48% since 2015, reaching 53.73% in 2024 [12]