- The report introduces two quantitative factors: the "Leading Factor" and the "Right-Skewed Peak Factor," both constructed based on price-volume data to identify top-performing stocks within the "Commercial Space" concept stock pool[2][8] - The "Leading Factor" is designed to capture stocks with strong upward momentum, while the "Right-Skewed Peak Factor" focuses on stocks with a sharp and asymmetric price distribution, indicating potential for significant gains[8] - The enhanced portfolio derived from these factors includes five stocks: Sunway Communication, Sray Materials, China Satellite, Aerospace Development, and Aerospace Electronics[8]

Macro Liquidity - The US dollar index has declined, and the degree of inversion in the China-US interest rate spread has narrowed. The nominal and real yields of 10-year US Treasuries have both decreased, indicating a drop in inflation expectations [2][14] - Offshore dollar liquidity has marginally eased, while the domestic interbank funding environment remains balanced. The yield spread between 10-year and 1-year government bonds continues to widen [2][19] Market Trading Activity - Overall market trading activity has increased, with many indices experiencing a rise in volatility. Sectors such as retail, military, consumer services, light industry, and textiles are seeing trading activity above the 80th percentile [3][25] - Most indices have shown increased volatility, with sectors like communication, electronics, electric new energy, and chemicals remaining above the 80th historical percentile [3][32] - Market liquidity indicators have declined, with liquidity metrics across sectors remaining below the 70th historical percentile [3][37] Sector Research Activity - Research activity is high in sectors such as electronics, pharmaceuticals, electric new energy, machinery, and non-ferrous metals. The research interest in automotive, computing, communication, and chemicals is also on the rise [4][43] Analyst Profit Forecasts - Analysts have raised profit forecasts for the entire A-share market for 2025 and 2026. The proportion of stocks with upward revisions in profit forecasts has increased across the board [4][51] - Specific sectors such as real estate, construction, coal, consumer services, and home appliances have also seen upward adjustments in profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026 [4][51] - The profit forecasts for the CSI 300 and SSE 50 indices for 2025 and 2026 have been revised upwards, while the profit forecasts for the CSI 500 have been adjusted downwards [4][51] Northbound Trading Activity - Northbound trading activity has decreased, continuing a net sell-off of A-shares. The ratio of buy-sell amounts in sectors like communication, non-ferrous metals, and consumer services has increased, while it has decreased in electronics, computing, and banking [5][29] - For stocks with holdings below 30 million shares, net buying has primarily occurred in computing, non-bank financials, and coal sectors, while net selling has been observed in communication, non-ferrous metals, and automotive sectors [5][31] Margin Financing Activity - Margin financing activity has rapidly increased, reaching the highest point since November 2025. The net buying has been concentrated in sectors like electronics, electric new energy, and communication, while net selling has occurred in non-bank financials, oil and petrochemicals, and retail sectors [6][35] - The proportion of financing purchases has increased in sectors such as consumer services, banking, and electric new energy [6][38] Fund Activity - The positions of actively managed equity funds have continued to rise, with significant net subscriptions in ETFs, particularly those related to institutional investors. Active equity funds have mainly increased their positions in non-ferrous metals, media, and consumer services, while reducing positions in communication, home appliances, and retail sectors [7][45] - The newly established equity fund scale has increased, with active funds seeing a rise while passive funds have decreased. ETFs related to the CSI A500 index have been primarily net purchased, while sectors like military, electronics, and agriculture have seen net selling [7][52]

Quantitative Models and Construction Methods 1. Model Name: Rotation Model - **Model Construction Idea**: The model is based on the relative performance of micro-cap stocks and "Mao Index" (a large-cap index), using rolling slopes and relative net values to determine rotation signals[19][24] - **Model Construction Process**: 1. Calculate the relative net value of micro-cap stocks to the Mao Index. If the relative net value is above its 243-day moving average, the model prefers micro-cap stocks; otherwise, it prefers the Mao Index[19][24] 2. Compute the 20-day closing price slopes for both micro-cap stocks and the Mao Index. If the slopes diverge and one is positive, the model selects the index with the positive slope to adapt to potential style shifts[19][24] 3. Timing indicators include the 10-year government bond yield (threshold: 0.3) and micro-cap stock volatility crowding (threshold: 0.55). If either indicator hits the threshold, a closing signal is triggered[19][24] - **Model Evaluation**: The model effectively captures style rotation signals and provides a systematic approach to manage risk and optimize returns[19][24] 2. Model Name: Macro Timing Model - **Model Construction Idea**: This model integrates macroeconomic growth and monetary liquidity signals to determine equity allocation levels[44][45] - **Model Construction Process**: 1. Assign signal strengths to economic growth and monetary liquidity dimensions. For December, the signal strengths were 50% and 60%, respectively[45] 2. Combine these signals to recommend an equity allocation level. For December, the recommended equity allocation was 55%[45] 3. The model's performance is tracked, with a year-to-date return of 13.57% compared to a 25.65% return for the Wind All-A Index[44] - **Model Evaluation**: The model provides a balanced approach to equity allocation, leveraging macroeconomic indicators to guide investment decisions[44][45] --- Model Backtesting Results 1. Rotation Model - **Relative Net Value**: Micro-cap stocks to Mao Index relative net value was 2.06, above the 243-day moving average of 1.80[19] - **20-Day Slope**: Micro-cap stocks' 20-day slope was -0.15%, while the Mao Index's slope was 0.00%[19] - **Risk Indicators**: Volatility crowding was -17.17%, below the 55% risk threshold; 10-year government bond yield was 7.32%, below the 30% risk threshold[19] 2. Macro Timing Model - **Economic Growth Signal**: 50%[45] - **Monetary Liquidity Signal**: 60%[45] - **Equity Allocation**: 55%[45] - **Year-to-Date Return**: 13.57% (compared to Wind All-A Index's 25.65%)[44] --- Quantitative Factors and Construction Methods 1. Factor Name: Growth Factor - **Factor Construction Idea**: Measures the growth potential of companies based on financial metrics like net income and operating income growth[58][59] - **Factor Construction Process**: 1. Use single-quarter net income year-over-year growth (NetIncome_SQ_Chg1Y) and single-quarter operating income year-over-year growth (OperatingIncome_SQ_Chg1Y) as key metrics[59] 2. Combine these metrics to rank stocks and construct the factor[59] - **Factor Evaluation**: Demonstrated strong performance with an IC mean of 10.62% across all A-shares[48] 2. Factor Name: Consensus Expectation Factor - **Factor Construction Idea**: Captures market sentiment and expectations based on analysts' forecasts[58][59] - **Factor Construction Process**: 1. Use metrics like expected ROE changes over the past three months (ROE_FTTM_Chg3M) and target return over 180 days (TargetReturn_180D)[59] 2. Rank stocks based on these metrics to construct the factor[59] - **Factor Evaluation**: Performed well with an IC mean of 9.57% across all A-shares[48] 3. Factor Name: Volatility Factor - **Factor Construction Idea**: Measures stock price stability and risk using historical price and volume data[58][59] - **Factor Construction Process**: 1. Use metrics like 60-day return volatility (Volatility_60D) and CAPM residual volatility (IV_CAPM)[59] 2. Rank stocks inversely based on these metrics to construct the factor[59] - **Factor Evaluation**: Underperformed with an IC mean of -20.21% across all A-shares[48] --- Factor Backtesting Results 1. Growth Factor - **IC Mean**: 10.62% (all A-shares)[48] - **Multi-Long-Short Portfolio Return**: 20.54% (all A-shares, year-to-date)[49] 2. Consensus Expectation Factor - **IC Mean**: 9.57% (all A-shares)[48] - **Multi-Long-Short Portfolio Return**: 15.95% (all A-shares, year-to-date)[49] 3. Volatility Factor - **IC Mean**: -20.21% (all A-shares)[48] - **Multi-Long-Short Portfolio Return**: -2.96% (all A-shares, year-to-date)[49]

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive investment outlook for the steel industry, with a rating reflecting an expected increase in the industry performance compared to the broader market [85]. Core Insights - The CITIC Steel Industry Index increased by 3.4%, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 1.5%. The average profit margin for steel mills is reported at -31.2 yuan per ton, with a profitability rate of 37.2% for steel companies, indicating a stable bottom in the industry fundamentals [10][11]. - The hot-rolled coil prices showed mixed trends, with the average price for 3.0mm hot-rolled coil at 3342 yuan per ton, down 8 yuan from the previous week. The market sentiment is weak, primarily driven by low-price promotions for transactions [11]. - The coking coal market is experiencing weak performance, with the main coking coal price at 1393 yuan per ton, stable compared to last week. The demand for coking coal remains subdued due to reduced consumption by downstream coke enterprises [12]. - Iron ore prices have slightly increased, with the average price for 61.5% Fe powder at 795 yuan per ton, up 1.7% year-on-year. However, the overall supply remains constrained due to high port inventories [13]. Summary by Sections 1.1 Steel Industry Overview & Index Performance - The CITIC Steel Industry Index rose by 3.4%, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 1.5%. The average profit margin for long and short process steel production is reported at -9.7 yuan and -7.4 yuan per ton, respectively [10]. 1.2 Sub-industry Fundamentals Overview - The hot-rolled coil prices are fluctuating, with a noted decrease in prices across major markets. The market is characterized by weak demand and low speculative sentiment, with a focus on essential inventory replenishment [11]. 2.1 Profitability - The profitability rate for steel companies stands at 37.2%, indicating a stable bottom in the industry fundamentals despite negative profit margins [10]. 2.2 Operating Rates - The operating rates for steel mills are reported at 78.32%, with daily average pig iron production remaining stable, reflecting a cautious approach to raw material replenishment [13]. 3.1 Steel Prices - The average price for hot-rolled coils is reported at 3342 yuan per ton, with a slight decrease noted in the previous week [11]. 3.2 Raw Material Prices - Coking coal prices remain stable at 1393 yuan per ton, while iron ore prices have seen a slight increase, indicating mixed trends in raw material pricing [12][13]. 4.1 Steel Supply and Demand Data - The report highlights the supply and demand dynamics within the steel industry, with a focus on the impact of environmental regulations and production adjustments by steel mills [11].

Investment Rating - The report highlights a positive outlook for the Q fabric market, suggesting it has the potential to become a mainstream material with increased supply capacity and market confidence [2][12]. Core Insights - The Q fabric market is gaining attention, with companies like Lite-On Optoelectronics investing in the sector to create an integrated advantage in sand mining, rod production, weaving, and more. The M9+Q fabric is identified as the most proactive material solution, while M9+ second-generation and 2.5 generation fabrics represent a more conservative approach. The Q fabric's low expansion and dielectric properties are emphasized as key advantages [2][12]. - The report suggests that the bottleneck for Q fabric lies in downstream processing difficulties, particularly in PCB upgrades, while upstream issues in silk and fabric production are being addressed by companies like Fihua and China National Materials [2][12]. - The report encourages a rational view of new entrants in the Q fabric market, emphasizing the need for upstream and downstream participants to enhance industry connectivity and penetration rates [2][12]. Summary by Sections Weekly Discussion - The Q fabric market is highlighted as a focal point, with significant investments and technological advancements expected to drive its adoption [2][12]. - The report discusses the importance of evaluating companies based on raw material advantages, technological capabilities, customer resources, and equipment strengths [2][12]. Market Performance - The report notes that the cement market is experiencing a decline in average prices, with a national average of 354 RMB/t, down 67 RMB/t year-on-year and 1 RMB/t month-on-month. The average shipment rate is 41.4%, reflecting a slight decrease [4][14]. - The glass market shows a slight decline in prices, with the average price for float glass at 1140.08 RMB/ton, down 11.32 RMB/ton, and an increase in inventory days [4][14]. - The concrete mixing station's capacity utilization is reported at 7.33%, indicating a decrease [4][14]. Price Changes - The report details that the national cement price remains stable, with fluctuations observed in specific regions. The average shipment rate has decreased by approximately 1 percentage point [24][25]. - The float glass market is experiencing a slight downward trend in prices, with increased inventory levels noted [34][35]. - The report indicates that the electronic fabric market is stable, with prices for 2400tex non-alkali yarn remaining steady [56][58].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The reading of the micro - trading thermometer in the bond market continued to rebound to 45% [14] - The proportion of indicators in the over - heated range increased to 25%, with 5 indicators in the over - heated range, 6 in the neutral range, and 9 in the cold range [19] - The average value of the interest rate differential percentile increased by 5 percentage points [4] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Micro - trading Thermometer Reading - The "Guojin Securities Fixed Income - Bond Market Micro - trading Thermometer" rose slightly by 1 percentage point to 45%. The buying volume of funds - rural commercial banks, TL/T long - short ratio, and policy interest rate differential percentile increased by 20, 19, and 10 percentage points respectively, while the configuration disk strength, 1/10Y Treasury bond turnover rate, and money tightness expectation percentile decreased by 20, 8, and 8 percentage points respectively. High - congestion indicators include the 30/10Y Treasury bond turnover rate and institutional leverage [14] 3.2. Proportion of Indicators in the Over - heated Range - Among 20 micro - indicators, the number of indicators in the over - heated range increased to 5 (25%), in the neutral range decreased to 6 (30%), and in the cold range remained at 9 (45%). The TL/T long - short ratio moved from the neutral to the over - heated range, the buying volume of funds - rural commercial banks from the cold to the neutral range, and the configuration disk strength from the neutral to the cold range [19] - The average value of the interest rate differential percentile increased by 5 percentage points. In trading heat, the TL/T long - short ratio and the whole - market turnover rate percentile increased by 19 and 2 percentage points, while the 30/10Y and 1/10Y Treasury bond turnover rate percentiles decreased by 1 and 8 percentage points respectively. In institutional behavior, the money tightness expectation and configuration disk strength percentiles decreased by 8 and 20 percentage points, and the buying volume of funds - rural commercial banks percentile increased by 20 percentage points. The market interest rate differential percentile remained flat, the policy interest rate differential percentile increased by 10 percentage points, and the stock - bond price - ratio percentile increased by 4 percentage points, while the commodity price - ratio percentile decreased by 2 percentage points [19] 3.3. 30/10Y Treasury Bond Turnover Rate - In trading heat indicators, the proportion of indicators in the over - heated range increased to 67%, in the neutral range decreased to 17%, and in the cold range remained at 17%. The TL/T long - short ratio and the whole - market turnover rate percentile increased by 19 and 2 percentage points, and the 1/10Y and 30/10Y Treasury bond turnover rate percentiles decreased by 8 and 1 percentage points respectively. The 30/10Y Treasury bond relative turnover rate reached a historical high [22] - The 30/10Y Treasury bond turnover rate increased to 5.85, reaching a historical high, and the percentile in the past year remained at 100% [22] 3.4. Configuration Disk Strength - In institutional behavior indicators, the proportion of indicators in the over - heated range remained at 0%, in the neutral range at 50%, and in the cold range at 50%. The configuration disk strength, money tightness expectation, and listed company wealth management buying volume percentiles decreased by 20, 8, and 3 percentage points respectively, and the configuration disk strength moved from the neutral to the cold range; the buying volume of funds - rural commercial banks, fund divergence, and fund duration percentiles increased by 20, 6, and 2 percentage points respectively, and the buying volume of funds - rural commercial banks moved from the cold to the neutral range [26] 3.5. Policy Interest Rate Differential Percentile - The loose money supply supported the continued decline of short - term Treasury bond yields. The policy interest rate differential narrowed by 3bp to - 4bp, and the corresponding percentile increased significantly by 10 percentage points to 82%. The credit spread, IRS - SHIBOR 3M spread widened by 2bp and 1bp to 59bp and - 3bp respectively, the agricultural development - state development spread narrowed slightly by 1bp to 0bp. The average spread of the three remained at 18bp, and its percentile remained at 51% in the neutral range [30] 3.6. Stock - Bond Price - Ratio Percentile - All price - ratio indicators were in the cold range. The stock - bond price - ratio percentile increased by 4 percentage points, the commodity price - ratio percentile decreased by 2 percentage points, and the real - estate price - ratio percentile remained unchanged [33] - The stock - bond price - ratio increased by 6 percentage points to - 10.9%, and the percentile in the past year increased by 4 percentage points to 8%. The commodity price - ratio decreased by 5 percentage points to - 27.3%, and the corresponding percentile in the past year decreased by 2 percentage points to 34%. The real - estate price - ratio decreased by 2 percentage points to - 77.5%, and the percentile in the past year remained at 16%. The consumer goods price - ratio remained at - 81.8% and the percentile in the past year remained at 0% [34][36]

Group 1 - The report identifies two main consensus expectations for the bond market in 2026: a generally "bearish" outlook and a relative safety in short-term bonds under bearish conditions [1][6][9] - The bearish outlook is supported by three key points: alignment of interest rate trends with nominal growth, historical patterns of interest rate increases following bottoming out, and risks of supply-demand imbalances in long-term bonds [1][6][9] - The relative safety of short-term bonds is attributed to the central bank's ample liquidity and stable funding prices, as well as a steady expansion in wealth management products favoring short-term allocations [1][9] Group 2 - The report highlights the difficulty of simultaneously achieving both consensus expectations, noting that historical transitions between bull and bear markets typically involve significant widening of short-term spreads [2][11][13] - Current pricing structures show a divergence in spreads, with long-term spreads reflecting a "bearish" valuation while short-term spreads remain at "bullish" levels, indicating a contradiction in market risk pricing [16][20] - The report suggests that the market's strategy preferences are influenced by past performance, leading to a potential extreme valuation of short-term assets at the beginning of the next year [3][21][28] Group 3 - The report warns of the risk of "overextended odds" in short-term bonds, which could lead to a market correction if liquidity, regulatory, or credit risks arise [31][35] - Historical data indicates that current short-term credit spreads have room to widen, suggesting a potential risk if they approach historical extremes [31][35] - The report concludes that the observed patterns in early-year market behavior often replicate previous dominant strategies, which could compress short-term spreads further, but also highlights the historical tendency for short-term spreads to widen during market corrections [4][35]

Investment Rating - The report suggests a "Buy" rating for the securities sector, indicating an expected increase in the industry exceeding the market by more than 15% in the next 3-6 months [42]. Core Insights - The establishment of the National Venture Capital Guidance Fund aims to inject long-term capital into technological innovation, potentially mobilizing trillions in social capital and creating a multi-layered venture capital ecosystem [38][39]. - The insurance sector is expected to benefit from a high demand for long-term care insurance, transitioning from pilot programs to a comprehensive system during the 14th Five-Year Plan period [36]. - The report highlights that listed securities firms have exceeded earnings expectations in Q3, with a projected high profit growth for the year, despite a current price-to-book (PB) ratio of 1.4, indicating a significant mismatch with performance [2]. Summary by Sections Securities Sector - The National Venture Capital Guidance Fund has been officially launched, with a 20-year duration (10 years for investment and 10 years for exit), which is significantly longer than typical equity funds, alleviating short-term exit pressures for managers [38]. - The report recommends focusing on three main lines: 1. Strongly recommend quality securities firms with valuation mismatches, particularly Guotai Junan and Haitong Securities [2]. 2. Highlighting Sichuan Shuangma's advantageous position in the technology sector and its venture capital business benefiting from gene therapy investments [2]. 3. Noting the impressive growth of diversified financial firms, suggesting attention to Jiufang Zhizhong Holdings, Yixin Group, and Far East Horizon [2]. Insurance Sector - The Ministry of Finance and the State Administration of Taxation announced new tax regulations for insurance contracts, which are expected to have no significant impact on the current profits and net assets of listed insurance companies [3]. - The report anticipates that the high prosperity of the liability side will drive a valuation switch in insurance stocks, with expectations of continued growth in the insurance sector due to strong demand for savings and pension products [4]. - The insurance sector's premium income for the first 11 months of 2025 reached CNY 57,629 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 7.6%, indicating a recovery in premium income [35].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained as "Buy" [1] Core Insights - The Hainan Free Trade Port officially launched its full island customs closure on December 18, 2025, implementing a policy of "one line open, one line controlled, and free flow within the island" to facilitate trade and investment [2][13] - The zero-tariff policy has been upgraded, increasing the number of zero-tariff product categories from 1,900 to 6,600, covering 74% of production materials [3][14] - The launch of the Hainan Free Trade Port is expected to significantly impact both local and national duty-free businesses, with the fundamentals beginning to materialize [15] Industry Data Tracking - GMV performance shows that in the second week of November, the overall GMV for Tmall and JD.com decreased by 5.56% year-on-year [4][16] - The top five categories in terms of growth during the same period were toys, home furnishings, books and audio-visual products, clothing, and home appliances [4][16] Market Review - From December 22 to December 26, 2025, the Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, CSI 300, Hang Seng Index, and Hang Seng Tech Index increased by 1.88%, 3.53%, 1.95%, 0.50%, and 0.37% respectively, with the retail trade sector rising by 0.16% [5][20] - Notable stock performances included Dongbai Group, Baida Group, China Duty Free, Yintai Group, and New Xunda, while Nanjing Shanglv, Central Mall, Dalian Friendship, Maoye Commercial, and Liren Liren experienced declines [5][20][27][28] Investment Recommendations - For offline retail, it is suggested to focus on Yonghui Supermarket, which is transforming its business model towards a curated retail approach, leveraging its strong fresh produce sales and scale advantages [28][29] - In the cross-border e-commerce sector, attention is drawn to leading brands like Anker Innovations and platforms like Xiaogongsi, which are expected to benefit from the Belt and Road Initiative [29] - In the gold and jewelry sector, companies like Laopuyin and Chaohongji are recommended due to their strong brand positioning and growth potential amid rising gold prices [29]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The SW Machinery Equipment Index increased by 4.50% in the last week, ranking 6th among 31 primary industry categories, while the CSI 300 Index rose by 1.95% [3][13] - Year-to-date, the SW Machinery Equipment Index has risen by 39.84%, also ranking 6th, compared to an 18.36% increase in the CSI 300 Index [3][16] - The report highlights the urgency of launching reusable rockets to secure space resources, predicting that 2026 will be a pivotal year for reusable rocket launches [5][22] - The acquisition of a 43% stake in Fenglong by UBTECH is noted as a significant move in the humanoid robot sector, emphasizing the importance of capital market opportunities [5][30] Summary by Sections 1. Stock Portfolio - Recommended stocks include Chaojie Co., Bluelight, and Hengli Hydraulic [11] 2. Market Review - The SW Machinery Equipment Index's performance over the last week and year-to-date is detailed, showing significant growth compared to the broader market [3][16] 3. Core Insights Update 3.1 Urgency in Rocket Launches - The report discusses the competitive landscape of satellite launches, particularly focusing on SpaceX's Starlink and the need for China to enhance its commercial rocket capabilities [5][22][24] - The cost structure of rockets is analyzed, emphasizing the importance of reusable technology in reducing launch costs [27][29] 3.2 UBTECH's Acquisition of Fenglong - UBTECH's strategic acquisition is positioned as a move to strengthen its humanoid robotics capabilities, with a focus on mass production and cost efficiency [5][30] 4. Key Data Tracking 4.1 General Machinery - The general machinery sector is under pressure, with the PMI indicating a contraction [32] 4.2 Engineering Machinery - The engineering machinery sector is experiencing an upward trend, with excavator sales showing significant growth [41][43] 4.3 Railway Equipment - The railway equipment sector is stable, with consistent investment growth [49] 4.4 Shipbuilding - The shipbuilding sector is experiencing a slowdown, with new ship price indices showing a decline [52] 4.5 Oil Service Equipment - The oil service equipment sector is stabilizing, with positive developments in the Middle East [54] 4.6 Industrial Gases - The industrial gases sector is expected to benefit from improved steel profitability and increased demand [59] 4.7 Gas Turbines - The gas turbine sector is showing robust growth, with significant order increases reported [61]