1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The reading of the micro - trading thermometer in the bond market dropped by 7 percentage points to 53% this period. The quantile values of comparison - based indicators continued to rise, while most other indicator quantile values declined. The proportion of indicators in the over - heated range increased to 35% [3][15][18]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Micro - trading Thermometer Reading - The "Guojin Securities Fixed - Income Bond Market Micro - trading Thermometer" dropped by 7 percentage points to 53% compared with the previous period. The quantile values of comparison - based indicators such as stock - bond, commodity, and real - estate comparison increased by 12, 8, and 8 percentage points respectively. Only a few indicators like TL/T long - short ratio, fund duration and divergence, and allocation disk strength had a slight increase in quantile values. Many other indicators' quantile values declined, and currently, the only indicator with high congestion is the bond fund profit - taking pressure [3][15]. 3.2 Proportion of Indicators in the Over - heated Range - Among the 20 micro - indicators, the number of indicators in the over - heated range increased to 7 (35%), the number in the neutral range decreased to 5 (25%), and the number in the cold range increased to 8 (40%). The all - market turnover rate, institutional leverage, and listed company wealth management purchase volume dropped from the neutral to the cold range, while the stock - bond and commodity comparison both rose from the neutral to the over - heated range [4][18]. 3.3 1Y Treasury Bond Turnover Rate - In the trading heat - related indicators, the proportion of indicators in the over - heated range remained at 50%, the proportion in the neutral range dropped significantly to 17%, and the proportion in the cold range increased to 33%. Only the TL/T long - short ratio quantile value increased by 5 percentage points to 88%, while the institutional leverage and all - market turnover rate quantile values decreased by 26 and 19 percentage points respectively, both dropping from the neutral to the cold range. The 1/10Y and 30/10Y Treasury bond turnover rate quantile values also decreased by 25 and 13 percentage points [6][21]. 3.4 Wide - money Expectation - In the institutional behavior - related indicators, the proportion of indicators in the over - heated range decreased to 13%, the proportion in the neutral range decreased to 25%, and the proportion in the cold range increased to 63%. The quantile value of the fund - small and medium - sized bank purchase volume dropped significantly by 69 percentage points from the over - heated to the cold range; the quantile value of the listed company wealth management purchase volume dropped by 5 percentage points to 38%, from the neutral to the cold range. In addition, the quantile value of the allocation disk strength increased by 12 percentage points, while the quantile values of the fund's purchase of ultra - long bonds and the money tightness expectation decreased by 18 and 12 percentage points respectively [7][25]. 3.5 Policy Spread - The policy spread remained at - 2bp, with the quantile value dropping by 6 percentage points to 86%, still in the over - heated range. The credit spread and the Agricultural Development - National Development spread remained basically the same as before, at 49bp and 0bp respectively, while the IRS - 3M Shibor spread slightly widened by 1bp to - 1bp. The average of the three spreads remained at 16bp, with the quantile value dropping by 3 percentage points to 66%, still in the neutral range [8][29]. 3.6 Consumer Goods Comparison Quantile Value - The proportion of comparison - based indicators in the over - heated range increased to 50%, the proportion in the cold range decreased to 25%, and the proportion in the neutral range remained at 25%. The quantile values of the stock - bond and commodity comparison increased by 12 and 8 percentage points to 76% and 70% respectively, both rising from the neutral to the over - heated range; the real - estate comparison quantile value increased by 8 percentage points to 65% [9][29].

Investment Rating - The report emphasizes a positive outlook on sectors such as green hydrogen, wind power, lithium batteries, and space photovoltaic technology, indicating strong investment opportunities in these areas [2][3][6]. Core Insights - The upcoming Two Sessions are expected to focus on "green hydrogen and methanol" as key components of carbon reduction strategies, with potential policy support driving demand [6][11]. - The geopolitical situation in Iran is likely to push up methanol prices, enhancing the competitiveness of green methanol as a substitute in various industries [11][12]. - The report highlights significant investment opportunities in core equipment and materials related to space photovoltaic technology, driven by collaborations between major tech companies [2][6][8]. Summary by Relevant Sections Hydrogen and Fuel Cells - The hydrogen industry is at a pivotal moment, with strategic importance elevated due to upcoming policies and geopolitical factors affecting methanol supply [3][11]. - The report suggests that green methanol producers will benefit from high premium returns due to supply shortages, with a projected demand increase for green methanol in shipping and chemical sectors [11][12]. Wind Power - Wind turbine bidding prices remain high, indicating a stable market, with recommendations to focus on the wind turbine segment for profit potential [3][13]. - The UK government has publicly released a memorandum on clean energy cooperation with China, which may catalyze opportunities in offshore wind exports [13][18]. Lithium Batteries - The lithium battery supply chain is showing signs of recovery, with significant month-on-month increases in production across various segments [19][20]. - The suspension of lithium concentrate exports from Zimbabwe is expected to tighten supply and elevate market prices, creating investment opportunities in battery materials [20][21]. Space Photovoltaics - The report notes a rebound in space photovoltaic stocks, driven by significant partnerships and upcoming launches, suggesting a bullish outlook for related companies [2][6][8]. - Key recommendations include focusing on companies involved in core equipment and materials for space and ground applications [8][9]. Investment Recommendations - The report provides a detailed list of recommended companies across various sectors, including wind power, solar energy, energy storage, and hydrogen, emphasizing their potential for growth and profitability [34][35][36].

Investment Rating - The report suggests a positive outlook for the electronic inflation chain and oil chain sectors, indicating potential price increases and strong demand in various materials [1][2][3]. Core Insights - The electronic inflation chain is expected to see price increases in early March due to strong downstream demand from AI materials and new product launches, with a successful price transmission anticipated [1]. - The oil chain is impacted by rising oil prices, leading to cost increases for products like asphalt, with companies adjusting prices accordingly [2]. - Companies like Keda, Huaxin, and Leshushi are highlighted for their expansion into international markets, particularly in Africa and South America, indicating a strategic focus on local manufacturing and job creation [3]. Summary by Sections Electronic Inflation Chain - Strong demand for AI materials is driving price increases in electronic fabrics and copper foil, with expectations for smooth price transmission in March [1]. - The report emphasizes the ongoing trend of AI displacing traditional production capacities in various sectors, including storage and electronic fabrics [1]. Oil Chain - The report notes that the cost of asphalt has risen from 3,000 RMB/t to 3,350 RMB/t, prompting companies to increase prices by 5%-10% for related products [2]. - The report highlights the potential for coal chemical alternatives to gain traction as oil prices rise, suggesting increased capital expenditure in this area [2]. International Expansion - Keda's establishment of a glass factory in Ghana is noted as a significant development, with expectations for local job creation and reduced costs for construction and automotive needs [3]. - Leshushi's inclusion in the Hang Seng Composite Index is also highlighted, indicating its growing market presence and liquidity [3]. Market Performance - The report provides insights into the performance of various materials, with cement prices averaging 339 RMB/ton, down 52 RMB/ton year-on-year, and glass prices showing a slight increase [4][15]. - The overall building materials index has shown a positive performance, with specific sectors like glass manufacturing and fiberglass seeing notable gains [18].

Investment Rating - The report suggests a positive outlook for the agriculture and animal husbandry sectors, indicating potential investment opportunities in the industry [2][3]. Core Insights - The agriculture and animal husbandry index outperformed the Shanghai Composite Index, with a weekly increase of 4.01% [2][3]. - The report highlights a dual weakness in supply and demand for live pig farming, with prices expected to continue declining in the short term [3][20]. - The poultry sector shows signs of stabilization, with a notable improvement in profits for yellow feathered chickens due to better downstream demand [4][33]. - The beef market is anticipated to see price increases as it enters the consumption peak season, while dairy cow inventory trends downward [5][34]. - The planting sector is experiencing tight supply and demand dynamics, with corn prices showing slight upward movement [6][40]. Summary by Sections 1. Market Review - The agriculture and animal husbandry index closed at 2972.60 points, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index [2][13]. - The report notes that the agriculture sector ranked 14th in performance among various sectors [14][16]. 2. Key Data Tracking 2.1 Swine Farming - The average price of live pigs is reported at 10.83 yuan/kg, with a weekly decline of 7.67% [19][20]. - The average weight of pigs at market is 127.73 kg, indicating a slight increase from the previous week [20]. - The report anticipates a slight increase in total market supply in February, but prices may still decline [20]. 2.2 Poultry Farming - The average price for white feathered chickens is 7.47 yuan/kg, showing a minor decrease [31]. - Profits for parent stock chickens have improved slightly, while broiler chicken profits remain under pressure [33]. 2.3 Livestock - Live cattle prices in Shandong are reported at 27.03 yuan/kg, with a year-on-year increase of 17.42% [35]. - The report indicates that the beef market is expected to strengthen as it enters the consumption peak season [34]. 2.4 Planting Industry Chain - Domestic corn prices are reported at 2285.71 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 0.50% [40]. - The report highlights the potential for improved conditions in the planting sector if there are significant reductions in grain production [41]. 2.5 Feed & Aquaculture - Feed prices for fattening pigs remain stable at 3.34 yuan/kg [52]. - Aquaculture prices show mixed trends, with some species experiencing price stability while others see declines [52].

Investment Rating - The report suggests a strong recommendation for high-quality brokerages with significant valuation and performance mismatches, particularly focusing on Guotai Junan [2] Core Insights - The securities sector is experiencing a positive development trend, with a notable increase in user engagement and market attractiveness. The monthly active user count for securities service applications reached 184 million in January 2026, reflecting a month-on-month growth of 5.11% and a year-on-year increase of 13.86% [2] - Insurance institutions are expected to slightly increase their allocation to A-shares in 2026, with a focus on equity assets. The report highlights a generally optimistic outlook for A-shares, particularly in sectors such as electronics, non-ferrous metals, and pharmaceuticals [3] - The report identifies three main investment themes: (1) high-quality brokerages with valuation mismatches, (2) companies in the biotechnology sector benefiting from investment themes, and (3) multi-financial firms with impressive performance growth [2][3] Market Review - The A-share market showed a 1.1% increase in the CSI 300 index, while the non-bank financial sector underperformed, declining by 1.2%. The securities and insurance sectors also saw declines of 0.4% and 3.7%, respectively [9] - The average daily trading volume for A-shares was 24,403 billion yuan, reflecting a 15.6% increase week-on-week. The new issuance of equity public funds reached 127.3 billion units in January-February 2026, marking a 110.4% year-on-year increase [15] Industry Dynamics - The report notes that major insurance companies are increasingly focusing on customized insurance products for humanoid robots, addressing emerging risks associated with advanced technologies [38] - The introduction of a new dividend insurance product by Zhongying Life with a predetermined interest rate of 1.25% indicates a shift in the insurance market towards lower guaranteed returns [36]

Investment Rating - The report suggests a positive outlook for the electronic inflation chain and oil chain sectors, indicating potential price increases and strong demand in various materials [1][2][3]. Core Insights - The electronic inflation chain is expected to see price increases in multiple products such as electronic cloth and copper foil due to strong demand from AI materials and new product launches [1][12]. - The oil chain is impacted by rising oil prices, leading to cost adjustments in products like asphalt, with companies like Dongfang Yuhong announcing price hikes of 5%-10% [2][13]. - Companies like Keda, Huaxin, and Leshushi are well-positioned for international expansion into regions like Africa and South America, with significant projects underway [3][14]. Summary by Sections Electronic Inflation Chain - March is anticipated to witness price increases in electronic materials due to strong demand from both AI and non-AI sectors, with successful price transmission expected [1][12]. - The report highlights the ongoing trend of AI displacing traditional production capacities in various segments, including copper foil and electronic cloth [1][12]. Oil Chain - The report outlines two main impacts of rising oil prices: direct cost adjustments in products linked to oil prices and the economic viability of coal chemical alternatives [2][13]. - Companies are advised to monitor price adjustments and capital expenditures in the coal chemical sector as they may provide business growth opportunities [2][13]. International Expansion - The report emphasizes the importance of local manufacturing and demand resonance in international markets, particularly in Africa, where companies are establishing production facilities to meet local needs [3][14]. - Leshushi's inclusion in the Hang Seng Composite Index is noted as a significant milestone, with implications for its market visibility and liquidity [3][14]. Market Performance - The report provides insights into the performance of various construction materials, with cement prices averaging 339 RMB/ton, showing a year-on-year decrease of 52 RMB/ton [4][15]. - The glass market is experiencing price fluctuations, with the average price of float glass at 1164.62 RMB/ton, reflecting a slight increase [4][15]. Price Changes - Cement prices have seen a slight decline due to seasonal factors, while the glass market is characterized by mixed performance across different regions [4][15][26]. - The report indicates that the overall construction material index has shown a positive trend, outperforming the broader market indices [18][22].

Market Overview - National housing prices are nearing valuation bottom, with a high probability of stabilizing within the year[1] - The current decline in housing prices is narrowing, with key cities showing signs of stabilization[1] Key Indicators - The recovery of second-hand housing listings and rental prices will be crucial for future price trends[1] - After the Spring Festival, second-hand housing listings in core cities have generally increased, indicating potential market recovery[1] New Housing Market - In the week of February 21-28, new housing transaction volume in 47 cities increased by 26.6% year-on-year, despite a seasonal decline[4] - The transition from off-season to peak season is expected to improve new housing transactions as developers increase supply[4] Second-Hand Housing Market - In the same week, second-hand housing transaction volume in 22 cities remained stable compared to the previous year[7] - Key cities showed a month-on-month price change of 0.2% for first-tier cities, -0.2% for second-tier, and -0.3% for third-tier cities, with Shanghai seeing a 0.4% improvement[7] Policy Impact - Shanghai's new policies include relaxing purchase restrictions and increasing public housing loan limits, aimed at boosting demand[13] - The maximum public housing loan for first-time buyers has been raised from 1.6 million to 2.4 million yuan, enhancing affordability for buyers[14] Risk Factors - Potential risks include unexpected declines in housing prices, increased corporate debt risks, and macroeconomic downturns[2][18]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - After the Spring Festival, the market pricing logic shifted from "liquidity" to the re - evaluation of "fundamentals and policy paths". The introduction of the "Shanghai Seven - Point Plan" and the weak rebound of some real - estate high - frequency indicators catalyzed the discussion on real - estate expectations. The sustainability of the weak rebound needs to be verified, and the real - estate cycle will continue to be a point of long - short game for interest rates this year [2][6]. - Through five - dimensional comparison, it is found that there is a significant "structural temperature difference" within the real - estate cycle, and long - term interest rates match the demand side most. The current long - term interest rate quantile is slightly lower than the cycle position indicated by the real - estate demand side, and the pricing deviation is worthy of continuous tracking [4][25]. - In the short term, the weak rebound of real - estate transactions and the "Shanghai Seven - Point Plan" have stabilized the short - term fundamental expectations. The growth target of the Two Sessions is expected to be lower than last year. The monetary policy remains loose, and the probability of a short - term interest rate cut is greater than a reserve requirement ratio cut. The bond market microstructure is still in a favorable range, but the main risks such as inflation have not reversed. Interest rates may shift from a rebound to a shock in the short term [4][26]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Post - Festival Game Focus Shift - After the Spring Festival, interest rates fluctuated around the 1.8% key resistance level. The pre - festival trading focused on liquidity, while after the festival, with the approaching of the Two Sessions, the market focused on fundamentals and policy paths. The optimization of policies such as the "Shanghai Seven - Point Plan" and the weak rebound of real - estate high - frequency indicators catalyzed the discussion on real - estate expectations [2][6]. 3.2 Five - Dimensional Comparison of the Real - Estate Cycle and Interest Rate Cycle - **Demand - side Comparison**: In January 2026, the real - estate demand sentiment was at the 25% quantile since 2021, and the monthly average quantiles of 10 - year and 30 - year Treasury bond interest rates were about 20% and 25% respectively, which were basically matched. In February, the interest rate quantiles declined, with the 10 - year and 30 - year rates dropping to about 13% and 23% respectively, slightly lower than the January real - estate demand cycle position [3][10]. - **High - frequency Indicator Comparison**: In February 2026, the real - estate cycle position under the high - frequency caliber (27%) was slightly higher than the monthly average quantile of 30 - year Treasury bond interest rates (23%) [3][11]. - **Development and Investment Indicator Comparison**: As of December 2025, the comprehensive quantile of development and investment was about 10%, and the long - term interest rate quantile was higher than the real - estate cycle position reflected by development investment [3][16]. - **Upstream Raw Material Price Comparison**: As of February 2026, the comprehensive building material price quantile was slightly lower than 10%, lower than the long - term interest rate level [3][18]. - **Real - Estate Credit Cycle Comparison**: As of January 2026, the real - estate credit cycle indicators were still near the lowest level since 2021, and the quantile levels of 10 - year and 30 - year Treasury bond interest rates were higher than this credit cycle sentiment position [3][19]. 3.3 Bond Market Performance - **Funds and Interest Rates**: In the first week after the Spring Festival, the central bank net - withdrew funds. Due to the combination of fund withdrawal and the end of the month, the fund rate center increased slightly [31]. - **Bond Yields**: Most Treasury bond yields rose this week, with the ultra - long - term yields rising significantly. The 10 - year Treasury bond yield decreased slightly to 1.78%, and the 10 - 1 - year term spread narrowed from 48bp to 46bp [32]. - **Bond Market Trends**: The bond market first fell and then rose this week. Affected by the relaxation of Shanghai's real - estate policies, the 10 - year Treasury bond yield rose in the early stage, and then rose due to the safe - haven sentiment caused by geopolitical conflicts [32][33]. - **Fund Duration**: From February 24 to 27, the median value of the public fund duration was basically stable at 2.67 years, and the duration divergence index decreased by 0.01 to 0.60 [37]. - **Interest Rate Synchronous Indicators**: Among the ten interest rate synchronous indicators released this week, "positive" and "negative" signals each accounted for 5/10. Compared with last week, the enterprise medium - and long - term loan balance growth rate and the US dollar index sent "positive" signals [40]. 3.4 Local Bond Issuance - **Issuance Scale**: This week, the local bond issuance scale was 173.9 billion yuan, and the net financing was 501.4 billion yuan, which decreased compared with the previous holiday. Compared with the same week in 2025, the issuance and net financing scale also decreased [42]. - **Issuance Term**: The weighted average issuance term of local bonds this week was 22 years, which was significantly higher than the 15 - year term before the holiday. The weighted average issuance term of special refinancing bonds increased by 12 years to 25 years [47]. - **Issuance Spread**: The weighted average value of the spread between the local bond issuance interest rate and the secondary local bond of the same term was 0bp this week, which continued to rise compared with - 3bp before the holiday. The issuance spreads of refinancing bonds increased significantly [49]. - **Issuance Progress**: As of February 27, 2026, the cumulative local bond issuance was 2.02 trillion yuan, which was significantly higher than 1.69 trillion yuan in the same period in 2025. The actual issuance progress in February was 121% of the planned issuance, and it is expected that the issuance will increase slightly next week [52][59].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an overall investment rating for the industry Core Views - The logistics sector is expected to benefit from rising chemical prices, with a focus on chemical logistics companies such as Milkyway, Hongchuan Wisdom, Xingtong, Shenghang, and Yongtaiyun [2] - The express delivery sector is seeing price stabilization due to regulatory clarity and a reduction in internal competition, with a positive outlook for leading companies like Zhongtong Express and Jitu [2] - The aviation sector is experiencing a recovery in flight volumes, with a recommendation for airlines such as Air China and China Southern Airlines due to expected profit elasticity from ticket price increases [3] - The shipping sector is positively impacted by geopolitical tensions, particularly the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, which is expected to drive up oil shipping rates [4] Summary by Sections Transportation Market Review - The transportation index rose by 3.3% from February 21 to February 27, 2026, outperforming the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index by 2.2% [1][11] - The shipping sector had the highest increase at +11.9%, while the airport sector saw a decline of -1.8% [1][11] Industry Fundamentals Tracking Shipping and Ports - The export container shipping price index (CCFI) was 1044.57 points, down 4.0% week-on-week and down 20.8% year-on-year [21] - The oil shipping index (BDTI) increased by 2.2% week-on-week and 91.5% year-on-year, indicating strong demand due to geopolitical factors [4][37] Aviation and Airports - The average daily flights in China increased by 17.58% year-on-year, with domestic flights up by 17.60% [3] - The passenger throughput in January 2026 was 62.99 million, a decrease of 2.9% year-on-year [55] Road and Rail - The national highway freight traffic was 9.924 million vehicles, down 70.58% week-on-week and down 79.56% year-on-year [5][84] - The railway passenger turnover in December 2025 was 3.23 billion people, up 8.52% year-on-year [82] Express Delivery and Logistics - The total express delivery volume was approximately 806 million pieces, down 77.8% year-on-year [2] - The chemical products price index (CCPI) was 4041 points, down 8.1% year-on-year, indicating a potential recovery in chemical logistics [2]

Investment Rating - The report suggests a cautious approach in the current cryptocurrency market due to low market sentiment [3][30]. Core Insights - The cryptocurrency market has experienced a downturn, with Bitcoin closing at $65,882, down 3.1% week-over-week, and Ethereum at $1,931, down 1.9% [9][10]. - The total market capitalization of cryptocurrencies decreased by 5.2% to $2.21 trillion [9][18]. - The Fear and Greed Index for cryptocurrencies is at 14, indicating extreme fear in the market [10][11]. - Global events, such as the US-Iran conflict and lower-than-expected GDP forecasts for Q4 2025, have contributed to the market's decline [9][10]. Global Policy and Industry News - Hong Kong is set to establish a digital bond platform to support tokenized bond issuance and settlement, with a total of HKD 10 billion (approximately $1.28 billion) in tokenized government bonds issued by Q4 2025 [23]. - WisdomTree has received SEC approval for a tokenized money market fund that allows 24/7 trading and instant settlement [22]. - The UK Gambling Commission is evaluating the feasibility of allowing cryptocurrency for betting payments, aligning with the development of a regulatory framework for digital assets [24]. - TruStage is piloting a digital currency linked to the US dollar for credit unions, expected to launch in H1 2026 [22]. Company News - Coinbase has opened stock trading to all US users and partnered with Yahoo Finance for asset research and trading execution [26]. - MARA is collaborating with Starwood Capital to develop AI-focused data centers [26]. - Citibank plans to launch institutional-grade Bitcoin custody services by 2026 [26]. - Morgan Stanley has applied for a national trust bank charter to offer digital asset custody and staking services [27]. - SoFi, a US chartered bank, now supports deposits on the Solana network [27]. - The Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission has approved two tokenized products from Derlin Holdings, marking a significant step in real-world asset tokenization [29].