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REITs专题报告:大类资产配置方兴未艾,冉冉升起的新兴市场
Shanxi Securities· 2025-09-16 06:36
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The Shanghai - Shenzhen REITs market has taken shape with broad market space. Policy support has accelerated the issuance rhythm. With interest rates declining, financial institutions such as securities firms are increasing their positions in REITs. If the number and average market value of China's public REITs reach certain levels, the market value could increase significantly [2][3]. - REITs have unique asset attributes, being both debt - like and equity - like, with a very long duration and diverse underlying assets. Different asset types have different market performances, completion rates of distributable amounts, and valuation methods [5]. - Based on valuation comparisons and fundamentals, some REITs are attractive, but liquidity may limit secondary - market trading strategies. Currently, subscribing to newly issued REITs through offline channels is recommended, with an expected annualized return of 5.1 - 6.4% [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Issuance Rhythm Accelerates, and the REITs Market Takes Shape - **China's REITs Market Has Taken Shape**: As of June 30, 2025, there were 68 listed REITs with a total market value of 205.5 billion yuan and a trading volume of 623 million yuan per day in H1 2025 [16]. - **Policy Support May Accelerate the Issuance Rhythm**: China's public REITs issuance process includes project screening, provincial development and reform commission application, national development and reform commission review, exchange review and registration, and issuance and listing. Since 2024, policies have simplified the process and expanded the asset scope. REITs expansion has also been normalized [18][21][23]. - **Interest Rate Decline Leads Financial Institutions to Increase REITs Positions**: In a low - interest - rate environment, financial institutions such as securities firms and trusts have been increasing their holdings of REITs since 2022 [25][29]. - **China's REITs Market Has Broad Space**: Although China's listed REITs number has exceeded that of Japan and Singapore, the average market value per REIT is much lower. If reaching the US number and Asian average market value, the market value could increase 10.99 times [32][35]. 3.2 Asset Characteristics of REITs - **Both Debt - like and Equity - like with Good Risk - Return Ratio**: REITs' debt attributes are reflected in mandatory and high - proportion dividends and stable cash flows. Their equity attributes are shown in the high dependence on underlying asset operations, the importance of underlying asset value for valuation, and high volatility. From the experience of mature markets, REITs have a good risk - return ratio [41][50][55]. - **Extremely Long Duration Forms Unique Asset Attributes**: China's REITs are mainly contract - type closed - end funds with a long fixed term (10 - 99 years). Longer remaining terms mean more prominent equity attributes, while shorter ones may highlight debt attributes [61]. - **Diverse Underlying Asset Types**: China's REITs underlying assets include eight major categories. Different asset types have different market performances, completion rates of distributable amount forecasts, and regular report data. Some traffic - facility REITs release monthly operation data [67][71][101]. 3.3 REITs Valuation Method Discussion - **Overview of REITs Valuation Methods**: REITs valuation methods are divided into absolute and relative valuation methods. The absolute valuation method often uses the DCF method, and common relative valuation indicators include PNAV, PFFO, IRR, and cash distribution rate [108]. - **PNAV Applies to All Types of REITs**: PNAV reflects investors' comprehensive expectations and market sentiment. Currently, the median PNAV of the Shanghai - Shenzhen REITs market is at a historical high, and different asset types have different reasonable PNAV levels [112][115]. - **Different Types of REITs Use Different Valuation Methods**: PFFO is suitable for equity - type REITs, while cash distribution rate or IRR is more applicable to franchise - type REITs. Equity - type REITs have high - dividend - stock characteristics [118][124][127]. - **Importance of IRR for REITs Valuation**: IRR is an important tool for measuring the long - term investment value of REITs. The initial IRR of listed REITs has remained stable, but the actual IRR may deviate from the initial value [128][130][131]. 3.4 Investment Recommendations - **Liquidity Shortage Limits Secondary - Market Trading**: Some REITs are attractive, but the market has poor liquidity, with most individual bonds having low daily trading volumes. The current high - valuation market is not a good time for large - scale allocation [135][136]. - **Currently, Subscribing to Newly Issued Funds Can Be the Main Strategy**: In 2025, newly issued REITs have high first - day price increases. The REITs new - issue strategy has a capacity of 1.5 - 2.0 billion yuan, and with 20 - 25 new issues expected this year and stable allocation ratios, the annual return could be 5.1 - 6.4% [140][148].
汉得信息(300170):毛利率持续改善,AI业务收入贡献逐渐体现
Shanxi Securities· 2025-09-16 05:55
Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy-A" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for its stock performance in the coming months [1][8]. Core Insights - The company's gross margin continues to improve, driven by the increasing contribution of AI business revenue [1][4]. - The company has optimized its business structure, reallocating resources from traditional services to proprietary product lines and strategic new businesses, leading to steady revenue growth [5][6]. - The AI product system has been fully developed, contributing significantly to revenue growth, with AI business revenue reaching 110 million yuan in the first half of the year [6][8]. Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, the company achieved revenue of 1.575 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.54%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 85 million yuan, a slight increase of 1.90% [4]. - The gross margin for the first half of 2025 reached 34.87%, an increase of 2.43 percentage points compared to the same period last year, primarily due to the higher proportion of proprietary software product revenue [5]. - The company expects its earnings per share (EPS) to be 0.25, 0.30, and 0.37 for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 70.0, 58.6, and 48.1 [8][10]. Business Segments - The company's key business segments include industrial digitalization, financial digitalization, and ERP services, with industrial digitalization revenue growing by 13.75% year-on-year [5][6]. - The AI business is expected to maintain accelerated growth, with a projected total revenue of 780 million yuan for the entire year of 2024 [6][8].
山西证券研究早观点-20250916
Shanxi Securities· 2025-09-16 00:43
Market Overview - In August 2025, the domestic retail sales (社零) totaled 3.97 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 3.4%, slightly below market expectations of 3.82% [6][5] - For the first eight months of 2025, total retail sales reached 32.39 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 4.6% [6] - The consumer confidence index in July 2025 was reported at 89.0, showing a month-on-month increase of 1.1 [6] Retail Sector Insights - Online retail channels continued to outperform the overall retail market, with physical stores like convenience stores and supermarkets showing stable performance [6] - In August 2025, the year-on-year growth for cosmetics was 5.1%, while gold and silver jewelry saw a significant increase of 16.8% [6] - The sports and entertainment goods sector maintained rapid growth, with a year-on-year increase of 16.9% in August [6] Textile and Apparel Sector - The textile and apparel retail sales in August 2025 showed marginal improvement, with a cumulative year-on-year growth of 2.9% for the first eight months [7] - The sports apparel segment experienced a robust growth rate of 20.6% year-on-year for the same period [7] - Major brands like 361 Degrees reported double-digit growth, while other brands like Li Ning and Anta showed low to mid-single-digit growth [7] Coal Industry Analysis - In August 2025, coal supply showed a marginal decrease, with cumulative production of 3.165 billion tons for the first eight months, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 2.8% [10] - The demand for coal was supported by manufacturing and infrastructure investments, with fixed asset investment growing by 0.5% [10] - Coal prices experienced an unexpected rebound in August, driven by supply-demand tensions, with significant increases in both coking coal and thermal coal prices [11] Investment Recommendations - For the textile manufacturing sector, companies like Shenzhou International and Kairun Co. are recommended due to their strong performance outlook [9] - In the gold and jewelry retail sector, companies such as Laopuyin and Chaohongji are recommended, with expectations of sustained demand due to rising gold prices [9] - The coal sector suggests focusing on companies like Huayang Co. and Jinkong Coal Industry, anticipating improvements in production and sales ratios in the upcoming quarters [11]
纺织服装社零数据点评:8月国内社零同比增长3.4%,黄金珠宝单月增速环比显著提升
Shanxi Securities· 2025-09-15 10:24
Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "Synchronize with the market" for the textile and apparel industry [2][27]. Core Insights - In August 2025, domestic retail sales (社零) grew by 3.4% year-on-year, slightly below market expectations, with a total retail sales amounting to 3.97 trillion yuan [5][6]. - The retail sales growth for the textile and apparel sector in the first eight months of 2025 was 2.9%, with a notable increase in sports and entertainment products, which saw a growth of 20.6% [8][10]. - The online retail channel continues to outperform the overall retail market, with a year-on-year growth of 6.4% in physical goods online sales [6][10]. Summary by Sections Retail Performance - In August 2025, the year-on-year growth rates for dining and goods retail were 2.1% and 3.6%, respectively [5]. - The consumer confidence index in July 2025 was 89.0, reflecting a 1.1 point increase [5]. Channel Analysis - Online channels showed a year-on-year growth of 6.4% in physical goods, while offline channels like convenience stores and supermarkets demonstrated stable performance [6]. - For the first eight months of 2025, retail sales in convenience stores, supermarkets, department stores, specialty stores, and brand stores grew by 6.6%, 4.9%, 1.2%, 5.2%, and 1.7%, respectively [6]. Sector-Specific Insights - The jewelry sector saw a significant year-on-year growth of 16.8% in August 2025, with gold prices reaching an average of 775.92 yuan per gram, up 36.7% year-on-year [7][11]. - The textile and apparel sector's year-on-year growth was 3.1% in August 2025, with a marginal improvement compared to previous months [7][10]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on brands like 361 Degrees, with a noted increase in revenue growth among major sports brands [8][10]. - For the textile manufacturing sector, it suggests tracking the recovery of Nike, which could positively impact overall sector valuations [10].
煤炭月度供需数据点评:8月:供给收缩,煤价超预期上涨-20250915
Shanxi Securities· 2025-09-15 10:11
Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "Leading the Market" for the coal industry, indicating an expected performance that exceeds the benchmark index by more than 10% [1][31]. Core Insights - The coal supply has been marginally decreasing from January to August 2025, with a cumulative production of 3.165 billion tons, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 2.8%, but with a declining growth rate [4]. - In August 2025, coal prices experienced an unexpected surge due to supply-demand tensions, with significant increases in various coal types, particularly in thermal coal [6][7]. - The report highlights that domestic coal supply continues to contract, which has led to an increase in coal imports, with August imports rising by 20.02% month-on-month, despite a year-on-year decline of 6.78% [5][7]. Summary by Sections Supply and Demand - From January to August 2025, the cumulative coal supply showed a marginal decrease, with August production at 391 million tons, down 3.2% year-on-year but up 2.5% month-on-month [4]. - The report notes that terminal demand has been supported by manufacturing and infrastructure investments, with fixed asset investment increasing by 0.5% year-on-year [5]. Price Trends - August saw a significant rebound in coal prices, with various types of coal experiencing different degrees of price increases, particularly in coking coal [6][7]. - The report indicates that the price of thermal coal rose unexpectedly, with the peak occurring later than traditional peak seasons [7]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that with the policy shift due to reduced internal competition, there is an improved market risk appetite, making certain stocks more attractive. Key stocks to watch include Huayang Co., Jinkong Coal Industry, and Shanmei International for thermal coal, and Luanan Energy and Shanxi Coking Coal for coking coal [7].
山西证券研究早观点-20250915
Shanxi Securities· 2025-09-15 02:37
Market Trends - The domestic market indices showed mixed performance, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 3,870.60, down 0.12%, and the Shenzhen Component Index at 12,924.13, down 0.43% [2] Industry Commentary - The communication industry is experiencing significant developments, particularly with Broadcom's latest financial report indicating continued high growth in AI business, with a revenue of $15.95 billion for Q3 2025, a 22% year-on-year increase. The AI revenue grew by 63% to $5.2 billion, with expectations for further growth [3][4] - The upcoming Shenzhen Optical Expo (CIOE2025) is anticipated to boost the optical module sector, with key innovations expected to be showcased, including 3.2T optical modules and TFLN thin-film lithium niobate chips [3][4] Company Commentary - Shanghai Hanxun (300762.SZ) reported a revenue of 173 million yuan for H1 2025, a 63.34% increase year-on-year, although it recorded a net loss of 29 million yuan [6][10] - The company is positioned in the low-orbit satellite communication sector, focusing on satellite communication payloads and ground stations, with significant potential for growth driven by favorable policies in the commercial aerospace sector [10] - The defense information construction is entering a new phase, with the company advancing in military communication systems, including 5G and data link technologies, which are expected to see increased demand [10] Investment Recommendations - Suggested companies for investment include domestic computing server manufacturers like ZTE Corporation and Unisplendour, as well as optical module companies such as Zhongji Xuchuang and NewEase Technology [8] - The overall market showed varied performance, with the optical module sector leading with an 8.4% increase, while the communication index fell by 2.68% [8]
周跟踪:博通ASIC预期再上调,深圳光博会预热
Shanxi Securities· 2025-09-12 09:05
Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the communication industry, indicating an expected increase in stock prices exceeding the benchmark index by over 10% [1][46]. Core Insights - Broadcom's latest financial report shows continued high growth in AI business, with new ASIC customer orders worth billions confirmed. The company reported a revenue of $15.95 billion for Q3 2025, a 22% year-on-year increase, and a non-GAAP EPS of $1.69, up 36.3% year-on-year, both exceeding analyst expectations. The forecast for Q4 revenue is approximately $17.4 billion, indicating close to double-digit sequential growth. AI revenue has seen a 63% year-on-year increase, reaching $5.2 billion, with expectations to rise to $6.2 billion in the next quarter. Broadcom anticipates ASIC market demand to reach $60-90 billion by FY2027, suggesting potential for annual doubling of AI business if significant market share is captured [3][14][41]. - The upcoming CIOE 2025 in Shenzhen is expected to boost the optical module sector, with several key product trends identified. Notable products include 3.2T optical modules, TFLN thin-film lithium niobate chips, silicon photonic chips, CPO high-density optical connection products, and hollow-core fiber products. These innovations are anticipated to enhance the capabilities and competitiveness of the optical communication industry [4][15][16]. Summary by Sections Industry Investment Rating - The communication industry is rated as "Outperform" with expectations of significant growth [1][46]. Market Performance - The overall market showed mixed results for the week of September 1-7, 2025, with the ChiNext Index rising by 2.35%, while the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 1.18%. The communication index dropped by 2.68%, and the technology innovation board fell by 5.42%. The optical module sector led with an 8.4% increase [7][17]. Key Company Highlights - Broadcom's Q3 2025 results highlight strong performance in AI, with significant orders and revenue growth, indicating resilience against market concerns regarding North American cloud investment slowdowns [3][14][41]. - The report suggests focusing on companies in various segments, including domestic computing servers (ZTE, Unisoc, Huaqin Technology), optical modules (Zhongji Xuchuang, Xinyi Technology), and satellite internet (Chengchang Technology, Zhenlei Technology) [6][17]. Upcoming Events - The CIOE 2025 event is anticipated to showcase significant advancements in optical communication technology, potentially driving growth in the optical module sector [4][15].
通信行业:博通ASIC预期再上调,深圳光博会预热
Shanxi Securities· 2025-09-12 07:27
Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the communication industry, indicating expected growth exceeding the benchmark index by over 10% [1][46]. Core Insights - Broadcom's latest financial report shows continued high growth in AI business, with new ASIC customer orders reaching 10 billion USD. The company reported Q3 2025 revenue of 15.95 billion USD, a 22% year-on-year increase, and a non-GAAP EPS of 1.69 USD, up 36.3% year-on-year, exceeding analyst expectations. The forecast for Q4 revenue is approximately 17.4 billion USD, indicating nearly double-digit sequential growth. AI revenue has seen a 63% year-on-year increase, reaching 5.2 billion USD, with expectations to rise to 6.2 billion USD next quarter. Broadcom anticipates ASIC demand to reach 60 to 90 billion USD by FY2027, suggesting potential for annual doubling of AI business growth if it captures a significant market share [3][15][41]. - The upcoming Shenzhen Optical Expo (CIOE2025) on September 10 is expected to boost the optical module sector. Key areas of focus include the introduction of 3.2T optical modules, TFLN thin-film lithium niobate chips, silicon photonic chips, CPO high-density optical connection products, and hollow-core fiber products. These innovations are anticipated to enhance the capabilities and offerings within the optical communication industry [4][16]. Summary by Sections Weekly Viewpoint and Investment Suggestions - Broadcom's strong AI financial results alleviate concerns regarding investment slowdowns among North American cloud providers, indicating a potential resonance between GPU and ASIC markets in 2026-2027 [15][17]. - The report suggests focusing on companies in various sectors, including domestic computing servers (ZTE, Unisoc, Huaqin Technology), optical modules (Zhongji Xuchuang, NewEase, Tianfu Communication), and satellite internet (Chengchang Technology, Zhenlei Technology) [18]. Market Overview - The overall market performance for the week of September 1-7, 2025, showed mixed results, with the ChiNext Index rising by 2.35%, while the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 1.18%. The communication index dropped by 2.68%, with the optical module sector leading gains at +8.4% [6][17]. Sector Performance - The optical module sector is highlighted as having a strong upward trend, with major companies showing a safety margin in performance post-adjustment. The report indicates that upstream related stocks have been undervalued and warrant investor attention [6][17].
上海瀚讯(300762):卫星收入受发射节奏客观影响,特种通信业务有望迎来实质性拐点
Shanxi Securities· 2025-09-12 06:38
Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Increase-A" with a downward adjustment [1][8]. Core Viewpoints - The company's satellite revenue is objectively affected by the launch rhythm, while the special communication business is expected to see a substantial turning point [3][4]. - The company achieved a revenue of 173 million yuan in H1 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 63.34%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of -29 million yuan, up 44.97% year-on-year [3][4]. - The company is a key research and development unit for low-orbit satellite communication subsystems, with core capabilities in phased array antenna development and satellite payload research [5][7]. Financial Performance - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 23 million yuan, 120 million yuan, and 183 million yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [8]. - The revenue forecast for 2025 is 547 million yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 54.7% [10]. - The gross profit margin is expected to be 49.1% in 2025, with a net profit margin of 4.2% [10][11]. Market Dynamics - The company is positioned to benefit from the increasing demand for satellite communication, with the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology's guidance expected to accelerate industry development [5][6]. - The establishment of the Information Support Force in April 2024 marks a new phase in national defense informatization, which will drive upgrades in military communication systems [6][7]. Project Progress - The company has made significant progress in various projects, including winning bids for a 5G self-organizing network project and developing communication equipment for unmanned platforms [7]. - The company is expected to see a recovery in the military industry as new equipment is showcased, with a potential increase in defense budget utilization [7][8].
山西证券研究早观点-20250912
Shanxi Securities· 2025-09-12 01:52
Market Overview - The domestic market indices showed mixed performance, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 3,875.31, up by 1.65%, while the Shenzhen Component Index rose by 3.36% to 12,979.89 [2][4]. Company Analysis: 阳光电源 (Sungrow Power Supply) - In the first half of 2025, the company achieved revenue of 43.53 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 40.3%, and a net profit of 7.73 billion yuan, up by 56.0% [9]. - The company's photovoltaic inverter revenue reached 13.4 billion yuan, growing by 11% year-on-year, with a gross margin of 35.74% [9]. - The energy storage system revenue doubled to 17.8 billion yuan, with a gross margin of 39.92% [9]. - R&D investment increased by 37% to 2.037 billion yuan, with a focus on AIDC (Artificial Intelligence Data Center) [9]. Company Analysis: 永辉超市 (Yonghui Superstores) - The company is undergoing a transformation towards quality retail, with a focus on product innovation and supply chain reform [10]. - In 2024, the top 100 supermarkets in China are expected to have a sales scale of approximately 900 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 0.3% [10]. - The company plans to expand its remodeled stores from 160 to 200 by the end of September 2025, aiming for 300 by the Lunar New Year [10][11]. Company Analysis: 新致软件 (New Wisdom Software) - In the first half of 2025, the company reported revenue of 897 million yuan, a decrease of 3.4% year-on-year, while net profit increased by 42.84% [12][13]. - The company is focusing on AI applications, with significant growth in intelligent income, which rose by 89.4% [23]. Company Analysis: 盐津铺子 (Yanjinpuzi) - The company achieved total revenue of 2.941 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 19.58% [16]. - The revenue from konjac products surged by 155.10%, driven by strong sales of its flagship product [18]. Company Analysis: 中国电信 (China Telecom) - In the first half of 2025, the company reported revenue of 269.4 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.3%, with a net profit of 23 billion yuan, up by 5.5% [23]. - The company is expanding its AI and cloud services, with intelligent income growing significantly [24][25]. Company Analysis: 永太科技 (Energizer Technology) - The establishment of a joint venture for lithium battery technology commercialization is expected to enhance the company's market position [27]. - The company aims for significant revenue growth in the coming years, driven by new product developments in lithium battery materials [30].