Group 1: Market Sentiment and Investment Strategy - The report identifies the "连板空间" (limit-up space) as a key indicator of short-term market sentiment, categorizing it into four phases: emotional freezing period (2-3 limit-ups), chaotic rotation period (4-6 limit-ups), main upward period (7-9 limit-ups), and market climax period (10 limit-ups and above) [2][8][12] - During the market climax period, theme investment shows superior short-term win rates and odds, followed by the chaotic rotation period. However, for mid-term performance (20 trading days), the main upward period outperforms the chaotic rotation period [2][8][12] Group 2: Key Themes - AIDC (Artificial Intelligence Data Center) is experiencing high demand due to policy support, with expectations for performance to exceed forecasts. The market for intelligent computing centers is projected to grow at an annual rate of over 25%, reaching a market size of over 280 billion yuan by 2028 [34][39] - Urban renewal has been highlighted as a significant focus, with the recent Central Urban Work Conference emphasizing the need for high-quality urban development and structural optimization [42][45] - The stablecoin sector is gaining attention as global regulatory frameworks are being established, with recent legislative actions in the U.S. and Hong Kong promoting the internationalization of the renminbi [47][48] Group 3: Policy Dynamics - The State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission (SASAC) is pushing for state capital to concentrate on forward-looking strategic emerging industries, emphasizing technology innovation and industrial integration [55][56] - The National Development and Reform Commission has announced plans to promote the construction of over 100,000 high-power charging facilities by the end of 2027, focusing on the integration of charging networks with existing infrastructure [58][59] - The recent "Action Plan for Measurement Support for New Quality Productivity Development (2025-2030)" aims to address key measurement technology needs across ten priority industries, including AI and new energy [63]

Quantitative Factors and Construction Methods 1. Factor Name: BP (Book-to-Price Ratio) - **Factor Construction Idea**: Measures the valuation of a stock by comparing its book value to its market value [13] - **Factor Construction Process**: - Formula: $ BP = \frac{\text{Current Net Asset}}{\text{Current Total Market Value}} $ [13] 2. Factor Name: BP Three-Year Percentile - **Factor Construction Idea**: Evaluates the relative valuation of a stock over the past three years [13] - **Factor Construction Process**: - Formula: $ \text{BP Three-Year Percentile} = \text{Percentile of Current BP in the Last Three Years} $ [13] 3. Factor Name: Quarterly EP (Earnings-to-Price Ratio) - **Factor Construction Idea**: Measures profitability relative to market value on a quarterly basis [13] - **Factor Construction Process**: - Formula: $ \text{Quarterly EP} = \frac{\text{Quarterly Net Profit}}{\text{Net Asset}} $ [13] 4. Factor Name: Quarterly EP One-Year Percentile - **Factor Construction Idea**: Tracks the relative profitability of a stock over the past year [13] - **Factor Construction Process**: - Formula: $ \text{Quarterly EP One-Year Percentile} = \text{Percentile of Current Quarterly EP in the Last Year} $ [13] 5. Factor Name: Quarterly SP (Sales-to-Price Ratio) - **Factor Construction Idea**: Measures revenue generation relative to market value on a quarterly basis [13] - **Factor Construction Process**: - Formula: $ \text{Quarterly SP} = \frac{\text{Quarterly Operating Revenue}}{\text{Net Asset}} $ [13] 6. Factor Name: Quarterly SP One-Year Percentile - **Factor Construction Idea**: Tracks the relative revenue generation of a stock over the past year [13] - **Factor Construction Process**: - Formula: $ \text{Quarterly SP One-Year Percentile} = \text{Percentile of Current Quarterly SP in the Last Year} $ [13] 7. Factor Name: Quarterly Gross Margin - **Factor Construction Idea**: Measures profitability efficiency by comparing gross profit to sales revenue [13] - **Factor Construction Process**: - Formula: $ \text{Quarterly Gross Margin} = \frac{\text{Quarterly Gross Profit}}{\text{Quarterly Sales Revenue}} $ [13] 8. Factor Name: Standardized Unexpected Earnings (SUE) - **Factor Construction Idea**: Quantifies earnings surprises relative to historical growth trends [13] - **Factor Construction Process**: - Formula: $ \text{SUE} = \frac{\text{Current Quarterly Net Profit} - (\text{Last Year Same Quarter Net Profit} + \text{Average Growth of Last 8 Quarters})}{\text{Standard Deviation of Growth in Last 8 Quarters}} $ [13] 9. Factor Name: Standardized Unexpected Revenue (SUR) - **Factor Construction Idea**: Quantifies revenue surprises relative to historical growth trends [13] - **Factor Construction Process**: - Formula: $ \text{SUR} = \frac{\text{Current Quarterly Revenue} - (\text{Last Year Same Quarter Revenue} + \text{Average Growth of Last 8 Quarters})}{\text{Standard Deviation of Growth in Last 8 Quarters}} $ [13] 10. Factor Name: 1-Month Turnover Rate and Price Correlation - **Factor Construction Idea**: Measures the relationship between turnover rate and price over the past month [13] - **Factor Construction Process**: - Formula: $ \text{Correlation} = \text{Correlation Coefficient of Turnover Rate and Price over the Last 20 Trading Days} $ [13] --- Factor Backtesting Results IC Performance - **BP**: Weekly IC: -7.07%, Monthly IC: 0.84%, Yearly IC: 1.37%, Historical IC: 2.35% [9] - **BP Three-Year Percentile**: Weekly IC: -4.35%, Monthly IC: -0.95%, Yearly IC: 2.26%, Historical IC: 1.73% [9] - **Quarterly EP**: Weekly IC: 4.35%, Monthly IC: 0.50%, Yearly IC: -0.03%, Historical IC: 1.07% [9] - **Quarterly EP One-Year Percentile**: Weekly IC: -0.91%, Monthly IC: 2.98%, Yearly IC: 1.21%, Historical IC: 1.72% [9] - **Quarterly SP**: Weekly IC: -1.33%, Monthly IC: 0.50%, Yearly IC: 0.45%, Historical IC: 0.70% [9] - **Quarterly SP One-Year Percentile**: Weekly IC: 1.57%, Monthly IC: 1.02%, Yearly IC: 2.99%, Historical IC: 1.87% [9] - **Quarterly Gross Margin**: Weekly IC: 7.04%, Monthly IC: 0.06%, Yearly IC: 0.49%, Historical IC: 0.50% [9] - **SUE**: Weekly IC: 4.59%, Monthly IC: 4.44%, Yearly IC: 0.87%, Historical IC: 0.97% [9] - **SUR**: Weekly IC: 3.53%, Monthly IC: 2.05%, Yearly IC: 0.98%, Historical IC: 0.86% [9] - **1-Month Turnover Rate and Price Correlation**: Weekly IC: 10.17%, Monthly IC: 2.65%, Yearly IC: 2.75%, Historical IC: 1.69% [9] Excess Return of Long-Only Portfolios - **BP**: Weekly: -0.90%, Monthly: 0.06%, Yearly: -0.30%, Historical: 33.52% [11] - **BP Three-Year Percentile**: Weekly: -0.60%, Monthly: -2.29%, Yearly: -0.76%, Historical: -1.67% [11] - **Quarterly EP**: Weekly: -0.16%, Monthly: 0.58%, Yearly: 2.84%, Historical: 29.38% [11] - **Quarterly EP One-Year Percentile**: Weekly: -0.61%, Monthly: 0.55%, Yearly: 3.45%, Historical: 31.87% [11] - **Quarterly SP**: Weekly: -0.39%, Monthly: 0.15%, Yearly: 0.93%, Historical: -3.80% [11] - **Quarterly SP One-Year Percentile**: Weekly: -0.30%, Monthly: -0.19%, Yearly: 10.46%, Historical: -0.86% [11] - **Quarterly Gross Margin**: Weekly: -0.09%, Monthly: -0.15%, Yearly: 5.26%, Historical: 15.26% [11] - **SUE**: Weekly: 0.92%, Monthly: 2.09%, Yearly: -0.37%, Historical: 6.59% [11] - **SUR**: Weekly: 0.83%, Monthly: 1.29%, Yearly: 1.23%, Historical: 13.76% [11] - **1-Month Turnover Rate and Price Correlation**: Weekly: 0.13%, Monthly: 1.11%, Yearly: 7.31%, Historical: 20.14% [11]

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating for the company with a target price of 5.2 CNY, based on a current price of 4.49 CNY [6]. Core Views - The company is positioned as a strong player in the electrolytic aluminum sector, with high profitability elasticity and increased shareholder returns expected to lead to a revaluation of its value [2]. - The company has successfully transitioned from a restructuring phase to a growth phase, significantly improving its operational status and financial health [1][14]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company, established in 1993, has developed a synergistic operating model focusing on aluminum and deep processing, supported by coal mining, thermal power generation, and carbon products [1]. - The current production capacity includes 690,000 tons of deep-processed aluminum, 750,000 tons of electrolytic aluminum, 150,000 tons of carbon products, and 90,000 kW of electricity [1]. Financial Performance - The company has shown a significant recovery post-restructuring, with a projected net profit of 1.83 billion CNY in 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 159.7% [4]. - Revenue is expected to grow from 227.61 billion CNY in 2024 to 235.40 billion CNY in 2025, with a growth rate of 3.42% [5]. Industry Analysis - The electrolytic aluminum industry is experiencing a tightening supply-demand dynamic, with domestic production capacity nearing its ceiling at approximately 45 million tons [3]. - Demand for electrolytic aluminum is primarily driven by sectors such as construction, transportation, and renewable energy, with significant growth expected from photovoltaic and new energy vehicles [3]. Profitability and Cost Structure - The company has enhanced its electrolytic aluminum capacity to 750,000 tons per year, benefiting from cost reductions in alumina and electricity, which are expected to improve profit margins in 2025 [2][4]. - The average electricity price in the Guangyuan region is projected to decrease significantly in 2025, further enhancing profitability [2]. Shareholder Returns - The company has initiated a robust employee stock ownership plan, aiming to raise up to 1.25 billion CNY, and has committed to distributing at least 60% of its distributable profits as dividends over the next three years [2][25].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, expecting a relative return of over 20% within the next six months [6][14]. Core Insights - The company's manufacturing business has shown resilience, with a revenue of $660 million in June 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 1.5%. The manufacturing segment grew by 9.4%, while the retail segment is awaiting recovery [1]. - The U.S.-Vietnam trade agreement has been established, imposing a 20% tariff on goods exported from Vietnam to the U.S., which enhances the stability of export orders for the company, as the U.S. is its second-largest market [2]. - The company is focusing on diversifying its manufacturing capacity by investing in Indonesia and India, aiming to enhance operational agility and flexibility in response to global supply chain fluctuations [3]. - The retail subsidiary, Bao Sheng, is expanding its omnichannel retail strategy, enhancing product offerings and operational efficiency to improve profitability and shareholder returns [4]. - Revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 are projected at $8.4 billion, $8.9 billion, and $9.5 billion, with net profits of $400 million, $430 million, and $480 million respectively, indicating a stable growth trajectory [5]. Summary by Sections Revenue Performance - In the first half of 2025, the cumulative revenue reached $4.06 billion, with a year-on-year increase of 1.1%. The manufacturing segment contributed a 6.2% growth, while Bao Sheng's revenue declined by 8.3% [1]. Trade Agreements - The trade agreement between the U.S. and Vietnam is expected to provide more certainty regarding tariff burdens for apparel brands and manufacturers, benefiting the company's operations in Vietnam [2]. Manufacturing Strategy - The company is accelerating its long-term capacity layout strategy, focusing on regions with abundant labor supply and sustainable growth potential, while also enhancing digital transformation to improve operational performance [3]. Retail Strategy - Bao Sheng is committed to refining its retail strategy by dynamically managing inventory and expanding partnerships to strengthen profit margins [4]. Financial Projections - The report maintains its earnings forecasts, with expected earnings per share (EPS) of $0.25, $0.27, and $0.30 for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, reflecting a stable outlook for the company's financial health [5].

证券研究报告 2025年07月18日 行业报告： 行业深度研究 银行 银行投资跟踪：如何看待银行股价和基本面的背离？ 作者： 分析师 刘杰 SAC执业证书编号：S1110523110002 联系人 曹旭冉 1 行业评级： 上次评级： 强于大市 强于大市 维持 （ 评级） 请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和免责申明 摘要 风险提示：宏观经济震荡、不良风险大幅上升、净息差下行压力加大、测算结果可能与现实情况存在差异。 2 ➢ 复盘历史，银行股价和基本面长期存在"背离"现象。这或是因为，在经济上行周期中，银行基本面表现较好，但银行股相较于其他高成 长板块可能缺乏对资金的吸引力；而在宏观经济表现相对承压时，银行基本面有所承压，银行板块的防御属性突出，反而拥有超额收益。 ➢ 目前银行基本面仍然承压，但市场偏好高股息策略下涨势亮眼。2025Q1商业银行净利润同比负增2.32%，较去年同期增速低2.97pct。而 银行股估值正攀升至近年较高水平，截止7月11日，银行板块PB为0.75倍，处于近十年50%的历史分位数水平。 ➢ 当前银行基本面持续筑底，但仍有边际改善。具体而言： • 一方面，受益于存量高息负债集中到期和贷款定价下 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target price not specified [6]. Core Insights - The company reported low single-digit growth in retail sales compared to the same period last year, with offline channels experiencing a low single-digit decline and online channels showing a mid-single-digit increase [1]. - The company has signed a partnership with the Chinese Olympic Committee, becoming the official sportswear partner for the 2025-2028 Olympic events, which is expected to enhance brand recognition and support international expansion [2]. - The company has adjusted its profit forecasts due to consumer pressure, projecting revenues of 28.9 billion RMB, 29.6 billion RMB, and 30.7 billion RMB for 2025-2027, with net profits of 2.4 billion RMB, 2.6 billion RMB, and 2.7 billion RMB respectively [4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Retail sales (excluding Li Ning YOUNG) recorded low single-digit growth year-on-year, with offline channels declining and online channels increasing [1]. - As of June 30, 2025, the total number of sales points in China was 6,099, a net increase of 11 from the previous quarter, but a net decrease of 18 year-to-date [1]. Marketing and Brand Strategy - The partnership with the Chinese Olympic Committee is expected to enhance the company's brand image and leverage its association with major international sporting events [2]. - The company has also signed contracts with emerging CBA stars, including Yang Hanshen, who was selected in the NBA draft, which may help in establishing a stronger presence in the international market [2]. Profit Forecast Adjustments - The company has revised its profit forecasts downward due to anticipated consumer challenges, with expected earnings per share (EPS) of 0.93 RMB, 0.99 RMB, and 1.06 RMB for 2025-2027 [4].

Group 1 - The report outlines a comprehensive policy framework for supporting the high-quality development of the Sci-Tech Innovation Board, including 15 reform measures that cover the entire lifecycle of fundraising, investment, lending, insurance, and exit [1][11][12] - The report highlights the introduction of the "1+6" policy measures aimed at enhancing the inclusiveness and adaptability of the Sci-Tech Innovation Board, including the reintroduction of the fifth listing standard for unprofitable companies [10][19][20] - The report indicates that the average liquidity ratio of Sci-Tech Innovation Board companies has significantly improved compared to 2019, demonstrating stronger short-term solvency compared to companies on the main board [28][29] Group 2 - The report reveals that the average asset turnover ratio for Sci-Tech Innovation Board companies has decreased more sharply than that of the main board, indicating a focus on long-term investments such as R&D and equipment acquisition [30][31] - The report notes that the overseas revenue of Sci-Tech Innovation Board companies has shown a consistent upward trend, with revenues reaching 418.22 billion yuan in 2024, highlighting the increasing internationalization of these companies [42][36] - The report emphasizes that the proportion of high-tech companies among newly listed firms on the Sci-Tech Innovation Board has exceeded 90%, reflecting the board's focus on strategic emerging industries [43]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, expecting a relative return of over 20% within the next six months [5][14]. Core Viewpoints - The company is expected to benefit from the tightening global regulations on vaping products, particularly in the e-cigarette sector, and anticipates significant growth in its Heat-Not-Burn (HNB) business [2][4]. - The company reported a revenue of 6.013 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, representing an 18% year-on-year increase, driven by growth in its proprietary brand and enterprise client businesses [2][4]. - The decline in net profit, projected between 443 million to 541 million yuan, is attributed to increased non-cash expenses related to stock options and a rise in marketing and legal costs [1][4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For the first half of 2025, the company expects revenue of 60.13 billion yuan, up 18% year-on-year, while net profit is projected to decline by 21% to 35% [1][2]. - Adjusted net profit, excluding non-cash stock-based payments, is estimated to be between 688 million to 787 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year change of -9% to +4% [1]. Market Dynamics - The UK market is undergoing significant changes due to a ban on disposable e-cigarettes, which is expected to shift consumer demand towards reusable products [2]. - In the US, regulatory actions against illegal e-cigarettes have intensified, with over 135 million USD worth of illegal products seized since 2023, indicating a tightening market environment [2]. Growth Opportunities - The HNB business is anticipated to become a significant growth driver starting in 2026, contributing notably to revenue and profit [4]. - The company is enhancing its market presence, particularly in overseas markets, which is expected to sustain growth in its proprietary brand and enterprise client segments [2][4].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target price not specified [6] Core Views - The company is expected to achieve a year-on-year increase in net profit attributable to the parent company of 41% to 60% for the first half of 2025, with a midpoint growth rate of 51% [1] - The company continues to develop its personalized "one-on-one" education tutoring model, enhancing its presence in the personalized education sector while also advancing vocational education and cultural reading initiatives [2] - The industry is currently in a recovery growth phase, with leading companies expected to benefit preferentially due to compliance qualifications and brand advantages [3] - The company has resumed its expansion of learning centers, increasing from over 240 to over 300 centers, covering more than 100 cities, which is expected to enhance operational leverage as market demand for personalized education rises [4] Financial Performance and Forecast - The projected net profit for the company for 2025 is estimated to be between 261.38 million and 330.25 million yuan, with corresponding P/E ratios of 24, 19, and 15 for the years 2025 to 2027 [5][10] - The company’s revenue is expected to grow from 2,212.64 million yuan in 2023 to 4,887.39 million yuan by 2027, reflecting a compound annual growth rate [5] - The EBITDA is projected to increase from 328.75 million yuan in 2023 to 578.87 million yuan in 2027, indicating strong operational performance [5] Market Position - The company is positioned as a stable performer in the A-share education sector, likely to enjoy valuation premiums due to its consistent performance [4]

Group 1 - The report discusses the concept of "market-oriented anti-involution," emphasizing the need for cost investigation and price monitoring to address chaotic low-price competition in industries [2][23] - It identifies two categories of industries that may benefit from this trend: the first category includes industries at the bottom of the cycle with initial signs of clearing, such as photovoltaic equipment and general equipment [2][25] - The second category consists of industries that have already seen some improvement in performance visibility, such as home appliances and chemical raw materials [2][25] Group 2 - The report on local government bonds indicates that the issuance scale reached 54,902 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, the highest level in nearly a decade [3][27] - The structure of bond issuance shows that new special bonds accounted for 40% and refinancing special bonds accounted for 39% of the total [3][27] - The report highlights a stable issuance pace with no significant delays or concentration phenomena compared to 2024 [3][27] Group 3 - The report on China National Gold International emphasizes its strong resource base, with the Changshanhao mine holding 158.57 tons of gold resources and a stable production plan [11][31] - The Jiaama mine is expected to increase production by over 50% through a three-step plan, enhancing its capacity significantly [11][32] - The report predicts a substantial increase in net profit for the company, estimating 3.06, 3.62, and 5.04 billion USD for 2025-2027 [11][34] Group 4 - The report on China Merchants Port highlights a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 9%, 27%, and 41% in revenue, net profit, and net profit excluding non-recurring items from 2018 to 2024, driven by investment and mergers [9][35] - The Shenxi Port area is expected to see significant growth, with container throughput projected to increase due to connections with Southeast Asia [9][36] - The report forecasts net profits of 46.9, 51.3, and 55.7 billion yuan for 2025-2027, with a target price of 23.44 yuan per share [9][38] Group 5 - The report on Huayi Group discusses its acquisition of a 60% stake in the fluorochemical company San Aifu, enhancing its chemical portfolio [5][39] - The company operates five core business segments, including energy chemicals and advanced materials, with a focus on integrated development [5][39] - The report anticipates stable cash flow and dividends due to the cyclical nature of its business segments [5][39]