证券研究报告 2025年07月18日 行业报告： 行业深度研究 银行 银行投资跟踪：如何看待银行股价和基本面的背离？ 作者： 分析师 刘杰 SAC执业证书编号：S1110523110002 联系人 曹旭冉 1 行业评级： 上次评级： 强于大市 强于大市 维持 （ 评级） 请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和免责申明 摘要 风险提示：宏观经济震荡、不良风险大幅上升、净息差下行压力加大、测算结果可能与现实情况存在差异。 2 ➢ 复盘历史，银行股价和基本面长期存在"背离"现象。这或是因为，在经济上行周期中，银行基本面表现较好，但银行股相较于其他高成 长板块可能缺乏对资金的吸引力；而在宏观经济表现相对承压时，银行基本面有所承压，银行板块的防御属性突出，反而拥有超额收益。 ➢ 目前银行基本面仍然承压，但市场偏好高股息策略下涨势亮眼。2025Q1商业银行净利润同比负增2.32%，较去年同期增速低2.97pct。而 银行股估值正攀升至近年较高水平，截止7月11日，银行板块PB为0.75倍，处于近十年50%的历史分位数水平。 ➢ 当前银行基本面持续筑底，但仍有边际改善。具体而言： • 一方面，受益于存量高息负债集中到期和贷款定价下 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target price not specified [6]. Core Insights - The company reported low single-digit growth in retail sales compared to the same period last year, with offline channels experiencing a low single-digit decline and online channels showing a mid-single-digit increase [1]. - The company has signed a partnership with the Chinese Olympic Committee, becoming the official sportswear partner for the 2025-2028 Olympic events, which is expected to enhance brand recognition and support international expansion [2]. - The company has adjusted its profit forecasts due to consumer pressure, projecting revenues of 28.9 billion RMB, 29.6 billion RMB, and 30.7 billion RMB for 2025-2027, with net profits of 2.4 billion RMB, 2.6 billion RMB, and 2.7 billion RMB respectively [4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Retail sales (excluding Li Ning YOUNG) recorded low single-digit growth year-on-year, with offline channels declining and online channels increasing [1]. - As of June 30, 2025, the total number of sales points in China was 6,099, a net increase of 11 from the previous quarter, but a net decrease of 18 year-to-date [1]. Marketing and Brand Strategy - The partnership with the Chinese Olympic Committee is expected to enhance the company's brand image and leverage its association with major international sporting events [2]. - The company has also signed contracts with emerging CBA stars, including Yang Hanshen, who was selected in the NBA draft, which may help in establishing a stronger presence in the international market [2]. Profit Forecast Adjustments - The company has revised its profit forecasts downward due to anticipated consumer challenges, with expected earnings per share (EPS) of 0.93 RMB, 0.99 RMB, and 1.06 RMB for 2025-2027 [4].

Group 1 - The report outlines a comprehensive policy framework for supporting the high-quality development of the Sci-Tech Innovation Board, including 15 reform measures that cover the entire lifecycle of fundraising, investment, lending, insurance, and exit [1][11][12] - The report highlights the introduction of the "1+6" policy measures aimed at enhancing the inclusiveness and adaptability of the Sci-Tech Innovation Board, including the reintroduction of the fifth listing standard for unprofitable companies [10][19][20] - The report indicates that the average liquidity ratio of Sci-Tech Innovation Board companies has significantly improved compared to 2019, demonstrating stronger short-term solvency compared to companies on the main board [28][29] Group 2 - The report reveals that the average asset turnover ratio for Sci-Tech Innovation Board companies has decreased more sharply than that of the main board, indicating a focus on long-term investments such as R&D and equipment acquisition [30][31] - The report notes that the overseas revenue of Sci-Tech Innovation Board companies has shown a consistent upward trend, with revenues reaching 418.22 billion yuan in 2024, highlighting the increasing internationalization of these companies [42][36] - The report emphasizes that the proportion of high-tech companies among newly listed firms on the Sci-Tech Innovation Board has exceeded 90%, reflecting the board's focus on strategic emerging industries [43]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, expecting a relative return of over 20% within the next six months [5][14]. Core Viewpoints - The company is expected to benefit from the tightening global regulations on vaping products, particularly in the e-cigarette sector, and anticipates significant growth in its Heat-Not-Burn (HNB) business [2][4]. - The company reported a revenue of 6.013 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, representing an 18% year-on-year increase, driven by growth in its proprietary brand and enterprise client businesses [2][4]. - The decline in net profit, projected between 443 million to 541 million yuan, is attributed to increased non-cash expenses related to stock options and a rise in marketing and legal costs [1][4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For the first half of 2025, the company expects revenue of 60.13 billion yuan, up 18% year-on-year, while net profit is projected to decline by 21% to 35% [1][2]. - Adjusted net profit, excluding non-cash stock-based payments, is estimated to be between 688 million to 787 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year change of -9% to +4% [1]. Market Dynamics - The UK market is undergoing significant changes due to a ban on disposable e-cigarettes, which is expected to shift consumer demand towards reusable products [2]. - In the US, regulatory actions against illegal e-cigarettes have intensified, with over 135 million USD worth of illegal products seized since 2023, indicating a tightening market environment [2]. Growth Opportunities - The HNB business is anticipated to become a significant growth driver starting in 2026, contributing notably to revenue and profit [4]. - The company is enhancing its market presence, particularly in overseas markets, which is expected to sustain growth in its proprietary brand and enterprise client segments [2][4].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target price not specified [6] Core Views - The company is expected to achieve a year-on-year increase in net profit attributable to the parent company of 41% to 60% for the first half of 2025, with a midpoint growth rate of 51% [1] - The company continues to develop its personalized "one-on-one" education tutoring model, enhancing its presence in the personalized education sector while also advancing vocational education and cultural reading initiatives [2] - The industry is currently in a recovery growth phase, with leading companies expected to benefit preferentially due to compliance qualifications and brand advantages [3] - The company has resumed its expansion of learning centers, increasing from over 240 to over 300 centers, covering more than 100 cities, which is expected to enhance operational leverage as market demand for personalized education rises [4] Financial Performance and Forecast - The projected net profit for the company for 2025 is estimated to be between 261.38 million and 330.25 million yuan, with corresponding P/E ratios of 24, 19, and 15 for the years 2025 to 2027 [5][10] - The company’s revenue is expected to grow from 2,212.64 million yuan in 2023 to 4,887.39 million yuan by 2027, reflecting a compound annual growth rate [5] - The EBITDA is projected to increase from 328.75 million yuan in 2023 to 578.87 million yuan in 2027, indicating strong operational performance [5] Market Position - The company is positioned as a stable performer in the A-share education sector, likely to enjoy valuation premiums due to its consistent performance [4]

证券研究报告 | 2025 年 07 月 18 日 晨会集萃 制作：产品中心 重点推荐 《策略|如何定位"市场化反内卷"？》 1、我们认为，本轮反内卷逻辑和供给侧改革有所不同，本轮反内卷更侧 重于成本调查和价格监测，治理企业低价无序竞争。提价本身需要行业的 供给格局配合，我们从"内卷"程度、产能出清程度、产能出清弹性三个 方面讨论哪些行业更具备基本面率先改善的潜质。以 CAPEX、毛利率和 存货的历史分位数水平衡量行业的"内卷程度"，以上述三个指标是否发 生趋势的拐点判断行业出清是否启动，目的是筛选本身已经在去产能、出 清的行业。2、我们筛选出两类受益方向：第一类走困境反转逻辑，行业 "反内卷"需求较为迫切，处在周期底部，出清拐点初步显现且具有较好 的出清弹性，属于"反内卷"较为核心的赛道。典型行业为光伏设备、通 用设备。以光伏为例，行业库存与开支周期向下，去库效果初显，营收增 速出现环比改善，但毛利率和现金流的改善仍未出现，困境反转后向上空 间较大。第二类走率先出清、盈利改善的右侧逻辑，内卷程度已经得到一 定改善，行业业绩能见度较高。典型为家电、化学原料等。 风险提示：1）过去历史经验有局限性；2）地缘风险 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for China Gold International with a target price of 91.4 HKD, indicating a potential upside from the current price of 68.45 HKD [6]. Core Views - China Gold International is positioned to benefit from the recovery in gold and copper prices, driven by macroeconomic factors and supply-demand dynamics in the metals market [3][4]. - The company has a robust operational recovery plan, particularly for its major mines, which is expected to enhance production capacity significantly [2][44]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - China Gold International Resources Limited is the overseas flagship of China National Gold Group, focusing on the exploration, mining, and development of gold and copper resources [1][12]. - The company operates two major mines: the Changshanhao Gold Mine in Inner Mongolia and the Jiama Copper-Gold Mine in Tibet, which are critical to its production output [12]. Production and Resource Potential - The Changshanhao Mine is expected to contribute approximately 3.4 tons of gold in 2024, with a stable production outlook despite nearing the end of its operational life [2]. - The Jiama Mine has significant growth potential, with plans to increase production capacity by over 50% through a three-phase development strategy [2][44]. Market Dynamics - The report highlights that the weakening of the US dollar and increasing global demand for gold are key drivers for rising gold prices, with a projected increase of 27.08% in COMEX gold prices for 2024 [3]. - The copper market is expected to experience a tightening supply situation, which will likely push copper prices higher, benefiting the company's copper production [4]. Financial Performance and Forecast - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 306 million, 362 million, and 504 million USD for the years 2025 to 2027, reflecting significant growth [5]. - The financial recovery is attributed to the upward trend in gold and copper prices, alongside the resumption of operations at the Jiama Mine [19][20]. Investment Recommendation - Based on comparative analysis with industry peers, the report suggests a target market capitalization of 330 billion RMB for China Gold International, supporting the "Buy" rating [5].

策略报告| 投资策略 策略专题 | 如何定位"市场化反内卷"? | 作者 | | | --- | --- | --- | | 吴鼎达 | | 分析师 | | SAC 执业证书编号:S1110524030001 | | | | wukaida@tfzq.com | | | | 核心结论: 孙希民 | | 分析师 | | SAC 执业证书编号:S1110524110002 | | | | 我们认为，本轮反内卷逻辑和供给侧改革有所不同，本轮反内卷更侧重于成本 sunximin@tfzq.com | | | | 调查和价格监测,治理企业低价无序竞争。提价本身需要行业的供给格局配合， 日消零 | | 联系人 | | 我们从"内卷"程度、产能出清程度、产能出清弹性三个方面讨论哪些行业更 wangchengrui@tfzq.com | | | | 具备基本面率先改善的潜质。以 CAPEX、毛利率和存货的历史分位数水平衡量 | | | | 行业的"内卷程度",以上述三个指标是否发生趋势的拐点判断行业出清是否启 相关报告 | | | | 动，目的是筛选本身已经在去产能、出清的行业。 | | | | 1《投资策略:"对等关税"再 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating for the company with a target price of 23.44 CNY, based on a target PE of 12.5 times [7][4]. Core Views - The company is expected to achieve high growth in revenue and profit driven by investments and acquisitions, with a projected CAGR of 9% for revenue and 27% for net profit from 2018 to 2024 [1][15]. - The domestic container business is anticipated to grow steadily, with significant contributions from the Shenxi Port area, which is expected to see an 18% increase in container throughput in 2024 [2][37]. - The overseas business is projected to benefit from emerging market growth, with a CAGR of 10% for revenue and 12% for profit from 2018 to 2024 [3][46]. Summary by Sections 1. Company Overview - The company is a leading global port operator, focusing on port investment, operation, logistics, and smart technology [15]. - It has a strong historical background as a state-owned enterprise and has established a significant global presence through strategic investments and acquisitions [16][30]. 2. Domestic Business Growth - The domestic container throughput is expected to grow significantly, with the Shenxi Port area projected to account for 81% of the total throughput of mainland-controlled terminals in 2024 [2][30]. - The company’s net profit from domestic operations is primarily driven by investments in key ports in the Yangtze River Delta region [34][40]. 3. Overseas Business Expansion - The overseas revenue and profit are expected to grow due to emerging market opportunities, particularly in Sri Lanka and Brazil, with a focus on enhancing port capabilities [3][47]. - The company has been actively expanding its control over key ports in emerging markets, aligning with the "Belt and Road" initiative [57][64]. 4. Financial Projections - The company’s net profit is projected to reach 46.9 billion CNY in 2025, with a steady increase expected in subsequent years [4][5]. - The report highlights a strong financial outlook, with a consistent increase in EBITDA and net profit margins [5][21].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 13.17 CNY per share, based on a current price of 7.96 CNY [6]. Core Viewpoints - The company is expanding its footprint in the chemical industry by acquiring a 60% stake in the fluorochemical company San Aifu, which is among the top 20 in the global fluorochemical industry [4]. - The company has a diversified business model with five core segments: energy chemicals, green tires, advanced materials, fine chemicals, and chemical services, which collectively form a dual-driven development model of "manufacturing + services" [16][22]. - The company is expected to see significant profit growth, with projected net profits of 1.4 billion CNY in 2025, 1.9 billion CNY in 2026, and 2.3 billion CNY in 2027 [4]. Company Overview - The company, Shanghai Huayi Group Co., Ltd., is a large state-controlled listed company primarily engaged in energy chemicals, green tires, advanced materials, fine chemicals, and chemical services [16][22]. - The company was established in 1957 and has undergone several transformations, including its listing in 2016 [17][18]. - The major shareholder is Shanghai Huayi (Group) Company, holding a 37.65% stake [20]. Financial Performance - The company reported a revenue of 45.1 billion CNY in 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 9.1%, marking a new high since 2018 [36]. - The projected revenues for 2025 and 2026 are 49.95 billion CNY and 52.79 billion CNY, respectively [5]. - The company maintains a stable debt-to-asset ratio, which has remained between 52% and 58% from 2018 to 2024 [52]. Business Segments - The five core business segments generated revenues of 13.23 billion CNY (advanced materials), 10.94 billion CNY (green tires), 6.91 billion CNY (energy chemicals), 6.43 billion CNY (fine chemicals), and 6.64 billion CNY (chemical services) in 2024 [39][40]. - The advanced materials and green tires segments are significant contributors to the company's profitability, with gross margins of 10.7% and 29.4%, respectively [41]. Acquisition Impact - The acquisition of San Aifu is expected to enhance the company's revenue and profit contributions significantly, with forecasts indicating a substantial increase in net profits post-acquisition [4][5].