2025 年 05 月 26 日 双融日报 ▌ 热点主题追踪 今日热点主题：固态电池、黄金、苹果链 --鑫融讯 分析师：万蓉 S1050511020001 wanrong@cfsc.com.cn 市场情绪：31 分（较冷） 最近一年大盘走势 -5 0 5 10 15 20 (%) 沪深300 资料来源：Wind，华鑫证券研究 -15 相关研究 ▌ 华鑫市场情绪温度指标：（较冷） 华鑫市场情绪温度指标显示，昨日市场情绪综合评分为 31 分，市场情绪处于"较冷"。历史市场情绪趋势变化可参 考图表 1。 1、固态电池主题：第十七届深圳国际电池技术交流会与 博览会(CIBF2025)将于 5 月 15 日至 17 日在深圳举办。 CIBF2025 同期还将举办 CIBF2025 先进电池前沿技术研讨 会，主题为"绿色能源驱动未来"，会议涉及先进锂离子动力 电池技术、电池安全与测评、固态及新体系电池、大功率快 充技术、智能装备与制造数字孪生等内容。相关标的：海顺 新材(300501)、国轩高科(002074) 2、黄金主题：5 月以来，国际金价剧烈波动，大涨大 跌、震荡调整。此前，全球贸易战风险支撑金价，但中美经 贸高 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" investment rating for the food and beverage industry [8]. Core Insights - The white liquor sector is experiencing a market sentiment impact due to new regulations on government dining that restrict alcohol service, although the fundamental demand is expected to stabilize during the Dragon Boat Festival [5]. - The report highlights that Kweichow Moutai has the ability to navigate through economic cycles and is focusing on internationalization and youth engagement for long-term growth [5]. - The overall valuation of the liquor sector is considered low, with many companies engaging in stock buybacks and increasing dividends, indicating potential for capital inflow [5]. - In the mass consumer goods sector, companies like Anjuke Foods and Three Squirrels are shifting towards product-driven strategies and expanding their product lines, indicating strong growth potential [6][7]. Summary by Sections Industry News - Guizhou announced a 660 million yuan investment project in the liquor sector [16]. - The industrial added value of Guizhou's liquor and tea industry grew by 4.7% from January to April [16]. - Wine imports increased by over 26% in the same period [16]. Company News - Kweichow Moutai launched a new product, a 1.935L Moutai 1935 [16]. - Other companies like Shanxi Fenjiu and Yanghe are focusing on market expansion and addressing development challenges [16]. Key Company Feedback - The report provides earnings forecasts for key companies, with several companies like Luzhou Laojiao and Gujing Gongjiu receiving "Buy" ratings based on their earnings per share (EPS) and price-to-earnings (PE) ratios [9]. Industry Performance - The food and beverage sector has shown varied performance, with the liquor segment facing a slight decline in sentiment due to regulatory changes, while mass consumer goods are recovering [3][5]. Core Data Trends - The white liquor industry reported a cumulative production of 4.145 million tons in 2024, a decrease of 7.72% year-on-year, while revenue for the industry reached 756.3 billion yuan, an increase of 9.7% [34]. - The seasoning industry has seen significant growth, with the market size increasing from 259.5 billion yuan in 2014 to 592.3 billion yuan in 2023, reflecting a CAGR of 9.6% [38].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" investment rating for the food and beverage industry [8] Core Views - The report highlights that the liquor sector is experiencing a temporary emotional impact due to new regulations on government dining, which restricts alcohol service. However, the fundamental demand for liquor is expected to stabilize during the Dragon Boat Festival, with a focus on maintaining market stability and long-term strategic positioning for companies like Moutai [5][6] - The report emphasizes the growth potential in the consumer goods sector, particularly for companies like Anjuke Foods and Three Squirrels, which are innovating and expanding their product lines to drive long-term growth [6][7] - The report notes that the overall valuation of the liquor sector is low, with many companies engaging in stock buybacks and increasing dividends, indicating potential for capital inflow as domestic policies are expected to support the sector [5][6] Summary by Sections Industry News - Guizhou announced a 660 million yuan investment project in the liquor sector [16] - The industrial added value of Guizhou's liquor and tea industry grew by 4.7% from January to April [16] - Wine imports increased by over 26% in the same period [16] Company News - Moutai launched a new product, a 1.935L Moutai 1935 [16] - Other companies like Fenjiu and Yanghe are focusing on market expansion and addressing development challenges [16] Key Company Feedback - The report provides earnings forecasts for key companies, indicating a positive outlook for major players in the liquor and consumer goods sectors, with several companies rated as "Buy" [9] Industry Performance - The food and beverage sector has shown varied performance, with liquor experiencing a decline of 7.72% in production year-on-year, while revenue for the liquor industry increased by 9.7% in 2023 [34][34] Market Trends - The report indicates a significant growth trend in the seasoning industry, with the market size increasing from 259.5 billion yuan in 2014 to 592.3 billion yuan in 2023, reflecting a CAGR of 9.6% [38]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" investment rating for the company, marking its first coverage [9] Core Views - The company has demonstrated consistent performance with significant revenue and profit growth driven by both internal and external factors [5][6] - The tourism market is recovering, and the company is focusing on its core business strategy of becoming a "leisure tourism destination" [7][8] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company reported total revenue of 864 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 20%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 147 million yuan, a decrease of 3% [5] - For Q1 2025, total revenue reached 212 million yuan, up 55% year-on-year, with a net profit of 31 million yuan, an increase of 159% [5] Investment Highlights - The company has enhanced its scale through asset acquisitions, leading to substantial increases in revenue and profit [6] - The gross margin for 2024 and Q1 2025 was 49.43% and 50.05%, respectively, with net profit margins improving significantly in Q1 2025 due to new acquisitions and government subsidies [6] Market Strategy - The company is expanding its tourism projects, with visitor numbers increasing by 18% in 2024, and revenue from tourism services rising by 768% [7] - The company has successfully launched new tourism products and services, including luxury cruise offerings, and is exploring innovative business models [8] Earnings Forecast - The company aims to maintain steady growth, with projected EPS of 0.33, 0.39, and 0.46 yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively [9] - The expected revenue growth rates for 2025 to 2027 are 57.2%, 13.7%, and 13.3% [11]

2025 年 05 月 25 日 首推债券——资产配置周报 分析师：罗云峰 S1050524060001 luoyf2@cfsc.com.cn 分析师：黄海澜 S1050523050002 huanghl@cfsc.com.cn 相关研究 1、《债券或逐步跌出交易机会—— 资产配置周报》2025-05-18 2、《5 月重回缩表——资产配置周 报》2025-05-11 3、《美国经济增速仍高于趋势水平 ——资产配置周报》2025-05-04 投资要点 ▌ 一、国家资产负债表分析 负债端。最新更新的数据显示，2025 年 3 月实体部门负债增 速录得 8.7%，前值 8.4%，符合我们之前的预期。预计 4 月实 体部门负债增速小幅反弹至 9.0%附近，以月末时点数衡量， 形成年内极值高点，5 月转而不再上升，后续重回缩表。按 照两会公布的财政计划，我们预计年底实体部门负债增速将 下降至 8%附近。金融部门方面，上周资金面边际上继续有所 收敛。2025 年政府工作报告中明确指出："使社会融资规 模、货币供应量增长同经济增长、价格总水平预期目标相匹 配"，这表明，稳定宏观杠杆率的大方向没有任何动摇，中 国仍然处于边 ...

—行业和风格因子跟踪报告 投资要点 ▌ 行业因子最新变动情况 2025 年 05 月 25 日 行业轮动因子指向内需和偏防御板块 上周大盘指数下破 3350，热点较少且无持续性。因子角度 来看资金流仍然聚焦于净买入口径，其次财报质量、估 值、短期分析师预期更有效。市场正处于热点匮乏时期， 出现新热点之前或将以主力资金净买入口径为主。动量反 转层面上期提及可以提前关注短期动量有效性的回升，本 期开始向二个月动量转移。财报质量因子继续偏向成长口 径，景气投资思路有效性继续小幅回升。 整体看行业轮动因子指向内需和防御板块：大盘成交金额 持续在 1.1 万亿以上，主题投资向上速度减缓，景气投资 反弹但反复，主力资金因子小幅回调，本期主力资金因子 行业选择农林牧渔、医药、非银行金融、有色金属、商贸 零售、消费者服务。长期分析师预期非银行金融、交通运 输、建材、消费者服务、家电、银行，空头无意义。短期 分析师预期指向非银行金融、消费者服务、钢铁、基础化 工、电力设备及新能源、机械。本期选择行业继续偏向内 需中的成长，继续关注低位消费短期反弹机会。 ▌ 定量行业推荐 基于权重分配，我们推荐内资主力资金流（25%）、细分因子 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" investment rating for the company, marking the first coverage of the stock [9] Core Insights - The company has shown consistent performance with significant revenue and profit growth driven by both internal and external factors, including asset acquisitions and government subsidies [5][6][8] - The tourism market in China is recovering, and the company is focusing on its "leisure tourism destination" strategy, resulting in increased visitor numbers and revenue from its projects [7][8] Financial Performance Summary - In 2024, the company reported total revenue of 864 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 20%, and a net profit of 147 million yuan, a decrease of 3%. The first quarter of 2025 saw total revenue of 212 million yuan, up 55%, and a net profit of 31 million yuan, up 159% [5][9] - The company's gross margin for 2024 and Q1 2025 was 49.43% and 50.05%, respectively, with net profit margins of 18.44% and 18.12% [6][9] - The company expects steady growth in earnings per share (EPS) from 0.33 yuan in 2025 to 0.46 yuan in 2027, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios decreasing from 31 to 22 times [9][11] Revenue and Profit Forecast - The company anticipates a significant increase in revenue, projecting 1.36 billion yuan in 2025, a growth rate of 57.2%, and a net profit of 347 million yuan, reflecting a growth rate of 136.6% [11][12] - The report highlights a focus on expanding the tourism destination investment and operation business, aiming to create a unique cultural tourism model [8][9]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the new energy vehicle industry [2][4][80] Core Viewpoints - The new energy vehicle industry is experiencing strong production and sales, with April 2025 figures showing production and sales of 1.251 million and 1.226 million units respectively, representing year-on-year growth of 43.8% and 44.2% [3][79] - The supply side is seeing continuous new product launches from battery and main engine manufacturers, while demand feedback remains positive, supported by ongoing policy initiatives [3][79] - The industry has undergone significant price declines, with capital expenditures contracting, leading to an improved supply-demand structure [3][79] - The report highlights that the core companies in the industry are currently valued at historical lows, presenting good investment opportunities [3][79] Summary by Sections Market Tracking - The new energy vehicle index has shown a year-to-date increase of 4.16%, while the lithium battery index has decreased by 1.51% [22] - The overall performance of the new energy vehicle sector remains strong despite fluctuations in individual stock performances [5][26] Lithium Battery Industry Price Tracking - Lithium carbonate prices are reported at 63,000 yuan per ton, down 2.3% from the previous week, while lithium hydroxide prices are at 64,700 yuan per ton, down 1.5% [33][42] - The report notes that cobalt prices have increased by approximately 40% year-to-date, while other materials have seen mixed price movements [30][31] Production and Sales Data Tracking - In April 2025, the total production and sales of new energy vehicles reached 1.251 million and 1.226 million units, respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 43.8% and 44.2% [53][54] - The report indicates that new energy vehicles accounted for 47.3% of total new car sales in April 2025 [53] Industry Dynamics - The report discusses the competitive landscape, highlighting that BYD has surpassed Tesla in European sales for the first time, with a year-on-year increase of 169% [71] - The introduction of new models, such as Xiaomi's high-performance SUV, is noted as a significant development in the market [70] Key Company Announcements - Wanrun New Energy has signed a supply agreement with CATL for lithium iron phosphate products, expected to total approximately 1.3231 million tons from 2025 to 2030 [74] - Zhejiang Rongtai plans to establish a wholly-owned subsidiary focused on motor and control system research and development [77]

证 券 研 究 报 告 行业周报 电动车产销两旺，看好预期差标的 新能源汽车行业周报 投资评级： （ ） 报告日期： 推荐 维持 2025年05月25日 ◼ SAC编号：S1050521120002 投 资 要 点 电动车产销两旺。根据中汽协数据，2025年4月新能源汽车产销分别完成125.1万辆和122.6万辆，同比分别增长43.8%和 44.2%。2025年1-4月，新能源汽车产销分别完成442.9万辆和430万辆，同比分别增长48.3%和46.2%，表现强劲。供给端， 电池及主机厂新品不断推出，需求端反馈积极，政策也不断发力。价格层面，产业链历经价格大幅下行，资本开支不断收缩， 供需格局不断优化，行业协会、产业链公司均在积极优化产能与供给，力争价格保障企业盈利。整体而言，产业链价格处于底 部，价格易涨难跌，需求端韧性强劲，调整带来布局良机，产业链核心公司估值处于历史低水平，看好产业链优质公司。 行业评级及投资策略： ◼ 分析师：黎江涛 政策持续呵护，供给端部分企业开始收缩资本开支，供需结构在边际优化，2025年产业链价格触底修复。继续优选有望贡献 超额收益方向，看好机器人、固态电池、电池材料α品种、液冷 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" investment rating for the pharmaceutical industry [3]. Core Insights - Significant transactions have occurred, enhancing the value of Best in Class (BIC) new drugs, particularly with the licensing agreement of SSGJ-707 between Sanofi and Pfizer, which includes a $1.25 billion upfront payment and potential milestone payments totaling $4.8 billion [5]. - The approval of the world's first influenza RNA polymerase PB2 protein inhibitor, Anladiwei tablets, provides a new treatment option for influenza resistance [6]. - The gout and hyperuricemia market presents substantial growth potential, with an expected increase in patients from 1.7 billion in 2020 to 2.4 billion by 2030 in China [8]. - The oral weight loss drug sector is seeing increased activity, with Novo Nordisk's collaboration with Septerna to develop oral small molecule drugs for obesity and type 2 diabetes, reflecting competitive pressures in the market [10]. - Chinese innovative drug companies are leading breakthroughs in CAR-T technology, with significant advancements expected in 2025 [12]. Summary by Sections 1. Pharmaceutical Market Tracking - The pharmaceutical sector outperformed the CSI 300 index by 1.96% over the past week, with a weekly increase of 1.78% [27]. - Over the past month, the pharmaceutical sector also outperformed the CSI 300 index by 1.74%, with a monthly increase of 4.26% [31]. 2. Pharmaceutical Sector Trends and Valuation - The current PE (TTM) for the pharmaceutical sector is 33.25, slightly above the five-year historical average of 32.64 [46]. 3. Recent Research Achievements - The report highlights various recent research achievements, including deep reports on the blood products industry and the impact of policies on inhalation preparations [49]. 4. Recent Industry Policies and News - Recent policy changes include a reduction in tariffs on U.S. imports, which may impact the pharmaceutical sector positively [52]. - Notable news includes the approval of several innovative drugs, such as Anladiwei tablets and the KRAS G12C inhibitor by Ailis, indicating a vibrant drug approval landscape [53][55]. 5. Key Company Recommendations - The report recommends several companies based on their market potential, including: - **Zhongsheng Pharmaceutical** for its innovative drug pipeline [15]. - **Yifang Biotechnology** for its technology platform [15]. - **Kejia Pharmaceutical** for its CAR-T technology advancements [15].