Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the high-temperature alloy industry, indicating a positive outlook based on strong demand and market conditions [1][14]. Core Insights - The global demand for gas turbines and aircraft engines is significantly increasing, leading to a surge in orders and delivery rates from major manufacturers, which in turn boosts the demand for high-temperature alloys and related components [1][14]. - Supply chain constraints are pushing the supply chain towards China, presenting significant export opportunities for domestic high-temperature alloy manufacturers [14]. Summary by Sections Gas Turbines - GE Vernova expects to have a gas turbine order backlog of 60 GW by the end of 2025, with orders signed through 2028. In 2024, GE Vernova added 20.2 GW in new gas turbine orders, a year-on-year increase of 112.6% [3][4]. - In Q1 2025, GE Vernova reported new orders of 7.1 GW, a 44.9% increase year-on-year, primarily from 29 heavy-duty gas turbine orders [3][4]. - The energy equipment segment achieved revenues of $5.708 billion in 2024, a 2.0% increase year-on-year, with Q1 2025 revenues reaching $1.491 billion, a 24.1% increase [3]. Aircraft Engines - Boeing reported a net addition of 300 aircraft orders in May 2025, with a backlog of 5,943 aircraft. Deliveries from January to May 2025 totaled 220 aircraft, a 68% increase year-on-year [5][6]. - GE Aerospace's commercial engine backlog grew significantly, with orders increasing by 141.8% from 2022 to Q1 2025. The service backlog also saw a 22.6% increase [6][8]. - GE Aerospace plans to increase capital expenditures to address supply chain bottlenecks and enhance production capacity [7]. High-Temperature Alloys - Domestic high-temperature alloy manufacturers are positioned to benefit from the increasing global demand for aircraft engines and gas turbines, despite supply chain limitations [9][14]. - Companies like Zhenhua Co. and Sui Rui New Materials are expanding their international presence and reporting significant revenue growth from overseas markets [10][12]. - The report highlights the importance of chromium in high-temperature alloys, with Zhenhua Co. being one of the top five global chromium producers [10][11]. Investment Strategy - The report emphasizes the robust growth potential in the high-temperature alloy sector, driven by the increasing demand from the aerospace and energy sectors, and suggests a focus on companies with strong order backlogs and international market strategies [14].

Group 1: Bond Market Insights - In the first half of 2025, institutional behavior showed three major changes: asset management extended duration, banks faced dual pressure on liabilities and performance, and insurance shifted some demand towards equities [3][4]. - The bond market outlook for the second half of 2025 indicates limited compression space for short-term spreads, while long-term demand from banks remains, potentially benefiting the downward trend of interest rates [4][5]. - The continuous reduction in bank convertible bonds is significantly altering market structure and triggering alternative allocation demands, with various funds seeking to fill the gap left by diminishing convertible bond supply [5][6]. Group 2: Motorcycle Industry Analysis - From January to May 2025, the motorcycle industry saw total sales of 6.822 million units, a year-on-year increase of 21%, with significant growth in exports [8][9]. - Specific companies like Chunfeng Power and Qianjiang Motorcycle reported varied sales performance, with Chunfeng Power's fuel motorcycle sales increasing by 23% year-on-year, while Qianjiang Motorcycle experienced a 6% decline in total sales [9][10]. - The overall outlook for motorcycle exports remains positive, maintaining a "recommended" rating for the motorcycle industry [15]. Group 3: Aluminum Industry Overview - The aluminum market is currently experiencing a tight supply situation, with domestic electrolytic aluminum inventory dropping to 460,000 tons, a decrease of 44,000 tons week-on-week [17][18]. - Despite a seasonal slowdown in demand, the low inventory levels are expected to provide some support for aluminum prices, while the overall aluminum industry is projected to maintain high prosperity due to limited long-term supply growth [22]. - The domestic aluminum oxide market is showing signs of recovery, with production capacity increasing and a slight rise in operating rates, although the market remains relatively loose [21][22]. Group 4: Alternative Investment Strategies - A民间预测指标 has emerged as a significant indicator for asset price movements, particularly in relation to the U.S. recession expectations, influencing various markets including stocks, bonds, and commodities [25]. - The indicator has shown strong correlations with market trends, suggesting that investors should integrate it with traditional economic data for more comprehensive asset allocation strategies [25]. Group 5: Gold Trading Strategy - The gold trading strategy is structured into three goals: determining long-term trends, analyzing strategic asset allocation value, and managing short-term volatility to control maximum drawdown [27]. - The strategy anticipates potential maximum drawdowns of 15%-20% during specific economic conditions, emphasizing the importance of market context in gold investment [27][28].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report The bank convertible bond market is experiencing a significant supply contraction, with the balance dropping from nearly 300 billion yuan in 2023 to about 150 billion yuan currently, and the market share declining from 38.97% to 22.64%. This is due to factors such as long - term net - breaking valuation in the banking sector and stricter regulatory reviews. The continuous reduction in supply has changed the market structure and triggered demand for alternative assets. Four types of assets are expected to replace bank convertible bonds, and the overall market impact is controllable [5][7][33]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Bank Convertible Bond Status 3.1.1 Supply Side Since 2023, the balance of bank convertible bonds has been continuously declining and recently accelerated its contraction. The scale has shrunk from the peak of nearly 300 billion yuan in 2023 to about 150 billion yuan, and the proportion in the whole market has dropped from 38.97% to 22.64%. The issuance peak was from 2019 - 2022, and after 2022, new issuance stopped due to factors like net - breaking valuation and stricter regulations [7][9]. 3.1.2 Demand Side The decline in bank convertible bond balance has led to a decrease in fund allocation. The allocation of bank convertible bonds by funds has a high correlation with the balance change. Among them, first - tier bond funds show more resilience, while second - tier bond funds, convertible bond funds, and partial - debt hybrid funds continue to reduce their positions. In the past, some funds have used financial bonds, high - grade corporate bonds, or low - price bank convertible bonds as substitutes [14][16]. 3.2 Subsequent Selection of Bottom - Position Assets 3.2.1 Long - Duration Positive - Equity Dividend Assets Long - duration and high - rated utility - type convertible bonds can be used as high - quality bottom - position assets after the exit of bank convertible bonds. They have stable cash flows, continuous dividend policies, and high sensitivity to interest rate changes, providing reliable returns and price elasticity in a declining interest rate environment. Relevant convertible bonds include Yushui Convertible Bonds, Guiran Convertible Bonds, etc. [20]. 3.2.2 Relatively Low - Price Bank Convertible Bonds Relatively low - price and high - cost - effective bank convertible bonds have low call risk and long - term stability. Their underlying stocks are generally below the call price, and the credit risk is generally controllable due to high ratings and local government support. Examples are Ziyin Convertible Bonds and Qingnong Convertible Bonds [22][23]. 3.2.3 Convertible Bonds with 2 - Year Remaining Maturity and YTM Protection Convertible bonds with a remaining maturity of about 2 years and a yield between 0% - 8% can effectively reduce interest rate risk, have a balance between defense and income elasticity, and can provide a stable safety margin in a volatile market [24]. 3.2.4 Other State - Owned and Central - Enterprise Convertible Bonds State - owned and central - enterprise convertible bonds with a positive YTM have low credit risk, high yields, and stable inventories. They can meet the comprehensive allocation needs of institutions for low - volatility bottom - position assets, credit substitution, and potential conversion elasticity [28]. 3.3 Summary The continuous exit of bank convertible bonds is expected to have relatively limited overall market impact. The market has long - term expectations for this trend, and there are sufficient alternative assets. Institutions can also adjust their strategies. Four types of assets are expected to replace bank convertible bonds in the future [33][34].

Core Insights - The report outlines a "three-step" strategy for trading gold, focusing on long-term trends, strategic asset allocation, and short-term volatility management [6][9][11] - It emphasizes that the weakening of US dollar credit and the economic cycle in the US being in a "recession to recovery" phase could lead to a maximum drawdown of 15%-20% for gold prices [6][11] - If both long-term and strategic views on gold are bullish, short-term negative factors could result in a maximum drawdown of 0%-5% within one month, while multiple negative factors could lead to a 5%-10% drawdown over 100 days [6][11] Group 1: Trading Strategy - The trading strategy consists of three goals: determining the long-term trend of gold, analyzing its strategic allocation value, and managing short-term disturbances to control maximum drawdown [6][11] - The report suggests that the long-term trend of gold prices is influenced by US dollar credit and inflation expectations, with a bullish outlook if dollar credit weakens and inflation remains above 2% [11][14] - The asset allocation perspective indicates that stagflation is favorable for gold, while recovery phases may exert downward pressure on gold prices [11][20] Group 2: Market Conditions and Impacts - The report identifies that periods of "overheating to stagflation" are generally bullish for gold, while "recession to recovery" phases tend to be bearish [20][21] - It highlights that unexpected crises can significantly impact gold prices, with fiscal policies leading to different price movements compared to monetary policies [23][24] - The analysis shows that short-term fiscal expansion may lead to a temporary decline in gold prices, reflecting reduced short-term debt repayment pressures [24][25] Group 3: Risk Management and Investment Timing - The report provides a framework for assessing the safety margin for investing in gold, suggesting that investors should consider maximum drawdown levels before entering positions [30][31] - It outlines specific scenarios for maximum drawdowns based on various economic conditions, indicating that drawdowns could exceed 20% under aggressive rate hikes or significant fiscal expansion [32][35] - The report advises investors to wait for drawdowns of around 15% to consider building or increasing positions in gold [35][43]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the motorcycle industry [1] Core Insights - The motorcycle export market remains robust, with a year-on-year growth of 27% in the first five months of 2025, indicating a strong demand for motorcycles [10][16] - The overall motorcycle sales from January to May 2025 reached 6.822 million units, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 21% [16] - The report highlights significant growth in the sales of motorcycles with engine displacement greater than 250cc, which saw a 50% increase year-on-year [16] Industry Data Update - **Overall Sales**: In the first five months of 2025, total motorcycle sales (domestic and export) were 6.822 million units, with domestic sales at 1.846 million units (down 1.3% year-on-year) and exports at 4.976 million units (up 27% year-on-year) [16][17] - **Sales by Displacement**: - Motorcycles with displacement between 150cc and 250cc sold 800,000 units (up 17% year-on-year) - Motorcycles with displacement greater than 250cc sold 399,000 units (up 50% year-on-year) [16][17] Company Data Update - **Chunfeng Power**: - Total sales of fuel motorcycles reached 118,200 units (up 23% year-on-year) in the first five months of 2025, with electric motorcycle sales skyrocketing to 93,000 units (up 2000% year-on-year) [26] - **Qianjiang Motorcycle**: - Total sales were 168,000 units (down 6% year-on-year) in the same period, with sales of motorcycles over 250cc increasing by 8% [35] - **Longxin General**: - Total sales reached 649,000 units (up 16% year-on-year), with significant growth in the 150cc to 250cc segment (up 48% year-on-year) [9]

Investment Rating - The report does not provide a specific investment rating for the steel and commodity industry [5] Core Insights - The report discusses how a civilian prediction indicator has become an "invisible driver" of asset prices, particularly in the steel and commodity sectors. It highlights the strong correlation between the "U.S. recession expectation" and various asset markets, including commodities, bonds, stocks, and foreign exchange [10][11] - The report emphasizes the importance of integrating this prediction indicator with traditional economic data and policy interest rate curves for more comprehensive asset allocation [6][10] Summary by Sections Recent Trends - The steel industry has shown a performance of -1.9% over the last month, -8.7% over the last three months, and 7.6% over the last year, compared to the CSI 300 index which has seen -0.4%, -3.3%, and 9.4% respectively [4] Asset Linkage Commodity Market - The report notes a significant rise in silver prices and a strong synchronization between the gold-silver ratio and the "U.S. recession expectation." It suggests that when recession probabilities decrease, silver, which has more industrial properties, tends to outperform gold [12] - The report also mentions that the crude oil VIX has shown a close correlation with the "U.S. recession expectation," indicating that market predictions of oil price volatility are influenced by recession expectations [12] Bond Market - The report indicates that when the "U.S. recession expectation" rises, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield tends to weaken, although recent trends show some divergence. The 10-2 year yield spread has shown a complex relationship with recession probabilities [15] Stock Market - The report highlights a strong negative correlation between the "U.S. recession expectation" and the S&P 500 index, suggesting that rising recession expectations directly impact corporate profit outlooks [21] - It also notes that the Russell 2000 to S&P 500 ratio has not returned to early-year highs despite a temporary decline in recession expectations, reflecting ongoing concerns about long-term corporate profitability due to tariff policies [21] Foreign Exchange Market - The report states that the U.S. dollar index has mostly moved inversely to the "U.S. recession expectation," although a gap has emerged since May, potentially linked to U.S. fiscal risks and trade policy uncertainties [22] - The report also mentions that the USD/JPY exchange rate tends to weaken when recession expectations rise, indicating a flight to the Japanese yen as a safe-haven asset [22]

Group 1: REITs Market Overview - The REITs index continues to rise, with property types showing strength this week, indicating a recovery in market activity [2][3] - As of June 13, 2025, the total market value of REITs reached 204.08 billion yuan, an increase of 2.01 billion yuan from the previous week [3][4] - The average weekly increase for property-type REITs was 0.95%, outperforming other categories [4] Group 2: H Acid Market Dynamics - The average market price of H acid as of June 13, 2025, was 41,750 yuan per ton, up 5,750 yuan per ton since early January 2025 [6][7] - Supply-demand tightness is expected to push H acid prices higher, with effective domestic production capacity currently below 60,000 tons, leading to a supply gap of over 10% [8][9] - Companies with integrated production capacity for H acid and reactive dyes, such as Zhejiang Longsheng and Jinchicken Co., are expected to benefit from rising prices [9][10] Group 3: North Exchange Market Insights - As of June 13, 2025, the North Exchange A-share component stocks totaled 267, with an average market capitalization of 3.046 billion yuan [11] - The North Exchange 50 index experienced a decline of 3.11%, while the average daily trading volume increased by 31.28% compared to the previous week [11][12] - The newly listed company, Jiao Da Tie Fa, focuses on intelligent products and services for rail transit, with projected revenue of 335 million yuan for 2024 [12] Group 4: AI Chip Design System Launch - The world's first AI-based chip design system, "Enlightenment," was launched, achieving full automation in chip design processes [14][16] - The system can design a 32-bit RISC-V CPU in just five hours, matching the performance of Intel 486, and has completed its first silicon [16] - This innovation is expected to significantly enhance the efficiency of chip design and development in the semiconductor industry [16] Group 5: New Materials Industry Outlook - The new materials sector is anticipated to enter a growth phase driven by increasing downstream demand and supportive policies [14][25] - Key areas of focus include semiconductor materials, renewable energy technologies, and biodegradable plastics, which are expected to see significant investment and development [19][23] - The industry maintains a "recommended" rating due to its potential for growth and innovation [25]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the industry, suggesting a focus on high-quality stocks with stable growth and reasonable valuations in the medium to long term [3][4]. Core Insights - The North Exchange (北交所) has shown a mixed performance, with the North Exchange 50 Index declining by 3.11% in the week ending June 13, 2025, while the average market capitalization of its constituent stocks is 3.046 billion [10][21]. - The report highlights the recent listing of Jiao Da Tie Fa (交大铁发), which specializes in rail transit intelligent products and services, with a projected revenue of 335 million and a net profit of 53 million for 2024 [27][29]. - The report emphasizes the importance of focusing on undervalued stocks and thematic investments, particularly in sectors benefiting from infrastructure development and technological advancements [3][4]. Summary by Sections North Exchange Market Overview - As of June 13, 2025, the North Exchange consists of 267 A-share stocks with an average market capitalization of 3.046 billion. The North Exchange 50 Index has experienced a decline of 3.11% during the week [10][15]. - The trading volume has increased, with an average daily turnover of 32.603 billion, up 31.28% from the previous week, indicating heightened market activity despite the index's decline [24][25]. Stock and Industry Performance - In the week from June 9 to June 13, 2025, 106 stocks rose, while 160 fell, resulting in a 39.70% increase ratio, which is a decrease of 28.34 percentage points from the previous week [15][21]. - The top-performing industries included petroleum and petrochemicals, transportation, textiles, light manufacturing, and national defense, with respective gains of 37.78%, 20.66%, 12.90%, 6.51%, and 5.97% [21][22]. New Stock Updates - Jiao Da Tie Fa was listed on June 10, 2025, focusing on rail transit intelligent products and services, with a significant portion of its revenue coming from safety monitoring products [27][29]. - The report notes the approval of Sanxie Electric (三协电机) for listing and the registration submission of Zhigao Machinery (志高机械) [35][36]. Investment Strategy - The report suggests a focus on stocks with stable earnings growth and reasonable valuations, recommending specific companies such as Tongli Co. (同力股份) and Wuxin Tunnel Equipment (五新隧装) for their low valuations and potential benefits from infrastructure projects [3][4][5].

Investment Rating - The industry is rated as "Recommended" for investment, indicating a favorable outlook for the sector [2][8]. Core Insights - The price center of H acid is expected to rise due to tightening supply and demand dynamics, with a current market average price of 41,750 RMB/ton as of June 13, 2025, reflecting an increase of 5,750 RMB/ton since early January 2025 [6][8]. - The active dye industry is undergoing a phase of industrial upgrading and consolidation, with many small and medium enterprises being eliminated due to sustained price pressure since late 2019 [6][8]. - H acid, a key raw material for producing active dyes, constitutes 30%-50% of the total cost, and its price increase is likely to positively impact active dye prices, which have recently risen from 20 RMB/kg to 23 RMB/kg [6][8]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - H acid production faces challenges such as high energy consumption and significant environmental pollution, leading to production halts in developed countries, with global capacity concentrated in China and India [6][8]. - Domestic effective H acid capacity is currently below 60,000 tons, resulting in a supply gap exceeding 10% [6][8]. Cost and Pricing Dynamics - The cost support from H acid is expected to facilitate a smoother transmission of price increases in active dyes, benefiting companies with integrated production capacities [6][8]. - The report highlights that companies like Zhejiang Longsheng, Jinchicken Co., Luntai Co., and Jihua Group are well-positioned to benefit from these dynamics [6][8]. Key Companies and Profit Forecast - Key companies to watch include: - Zhejiang Longsheng (Stock Code: 600352.SH) with an estimated EPS of 0.67 for 2025 and a PE ratio of 16 [9]. - Jinchicken Co. (Stock Code: 300798.SZ) currently un-rated but with significant production capacity [9]. - Luntai Co. (Stock Code: 002440.SZ) with an estimated EPS of 0.25 for 2025 and a PE ratio of 33 [9]. - Jihua Group (Stock Code: 603980.SH) with an estimated EPS of 0.25 for 2024 and a PE ratio of 81 [9].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the new materials industry [1][17]. Core Viewpoints - The new materials sector is a crucial direction for the chemical industry, currently experiencing rapid growth in downstream demand. With policy support and technological breakthroughs, domestic new materials are expected to enter a phase of accelerated long-term growth. The report emphasizes that "one generation of materials supports one generation of industry," highlighting the foundational nature of the new materials industry as the material basis for other industries [4][17]. Summary by Sections 1. New Materials Industry Dynamics 1.1 Electronic Information Sector - Focus on semiconductor materials, display materials, and 5G materials [5]. - The global first AI-based processor chip design system "Enlightenment" was recently launched, achieving full automation in chip design, with significant performance metrics surpassing human-designed levels [6][24]. 1.2 Aerospace Sector - Key areas of interest include PI films, precision ceramics, and carbon fibers [7]. 1.3 New Energy Sector - Focus on photovoltaic materials, lithium-ion batteries, proton exchange membranes, and hydrogen storage materials [9]. - The International Energy Agency (IEA) predicts a 70% increase in global investment in clean hydrogen compared to 2024, with total spending expected to reach approximately $7.8 billion in 2025 [10]. 1.4 Biotechnology Sector - Key areas include synthetic biology and scientific services [11]. 1.5 Energy Conservation and Environmental Protection Sector - Focus on adsorbent resins, membrane materials, and biodegradable plastics [13]. 2. Key Companies and Profit Forecasts - The report lists several key companies with their respective stock prices and earnings per share (EPS) forecasts for 2024 to 2026, indicating a positive outlook for many companies in the new materials sector [16].