Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The primary market has updates on two project statuses, with the secondary - market REITs index leading and market activity picking up. - The guaranteed rental housing sector leads the gains, and there are differences in trading volume and turnover rate among different sectors. - The valuation differences between equity - type and franchise - type REITs persist. [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Primary Market Issuance Dynamics - As of June 13, 2025, 7 products have been successfully issued in the public REITs market this year, 2 less than the same period last year. There are currently no products in the declared stage, 2 in the accepted stage, 1 in the in - query stage, 8 in the feedback stage, and 5 that have passed the review and are waiting for listing. - This week, the review status of two projects has been updated: one from declared to accepted, and the other from accepted to feedback. [3][8][9] 3.2 Secondary Market Review and Analysis - **Market Scale and Liquidity**: As of June 13, 2025, the total market value of public REITs has risen to 204.081 billion yuan, an increase of 2.007 billion yuan from the previous week. The total circulating market value has also increased to 95.089 billion yuan, with a weekly increase of 1.509 billion yuan. The average daily turnover rate this week is 0.61%, up from 0.48% last week, indicating a slight increase in market trading activity. - **Index Performance**: The CSI REITs Total Return Index rose 0.69% this week, outperforming the Dividend Index (- 0.52%), the ChinaBond - New Composite Wealth Index (0.18%), the CSI 300 Index (- 0.25%), and the CSI Convertible Bond Index (- 0.02%). The volatility of the CSI REITs Total Return Index is 0.23%, lower than that of the Dividend Index (0.41%) and the CSI 300 Index (0.60%), and higher than that of the ChinaBond - New Composite Wealth Index (0.03%). - **Sector Performance**: By project attribute, equity - type REITs had a weighted average weekly increase of 0.95%, better than the 0.42% of franchise - type REITs. By underlying asset type, the guaranteed rental housing sector led with a weighted average weekly increase of 1.54%, followed by the municipal environmental protection and water conservancy sector with a 1.02% increase. The energy infrastructure sector had the smallest increase at 0.06%. - **Individual Bond Performance**: Huaxia Fund CR Land Youchao REIT (4.32%) and Hua'an Bailian Consumption REIT (4.19%) led the gains. - **Trading Volume and Turnover Rate**: In terms of weekly trading volume, the park infrastructure sector ranked first with 193 million shares, followed by transportation infrastructure (108 million shares), guaranteed rental housing (99 million shares), etc. In terms of weekly turnover rate, the municipal environmental protection and water conservancy sector led with 1.01%, followed by the guaranteed rental housing sector (0.81%). - **Valuation Level**: As of June 13, 2025, the average cash distribution rate of equity - type REITs is 3.78%, with the consumer infrastructure sector leading at 4.26%. The average cash distribution rate of franchise - type REITs is 8.05%, with the municipal facilities sector leading at 12.21%. The Zhongzhai REITs valuation yield (IRR) of equity - type REITs (4.02%) is higher than that of franchise - type REITs (3.23%), and the PV multiplier of franchise - type REITs (1.27) is lower than that of equity - type REITs (1.31). [3][11][14][19][23][25]

Group 1 - Quantum Song acquired 61% of Letsvan for 235 million RMB, marking its entry into the trendy toy market [5][6] - Quantum Song's Q1 2025 revenue was 570 million RMB, down 39.6% year-on-year, with a net profit of 41 million RMB, up 181.2% [3][4] - Letsvan has a rich IP portfolio and aims to enhance its brand influence through retail partnerships and self-operated stores [6][7] Group 2 - Zhaoyi Innovation has expanded its product lines in the storage and MCU sectors, becoming a top three global supplier of NOR Flash [9][10] - The global storage market is projected to reach 204.28 billion USD by 2025, with NAND Flash and DRAM being the largest segments [10][11] - Zhaoyi Innovation's revenue is expected to grow from 9.38 billion RMB in 2025 to 13.55 billion RMB in 2027, with a net profit increase from 1.54 billion RMB to 2.52 billion RMB [16] Group 3 - The pilot policy for smart elderly care robots has been launched, with a trial period from 2025 to 2027 [17][18] - Skild AI raised 250 million USD in funding from Nvidia and others, boosting its valuation to approximately 45 billion USD [20] - The humanoid robot market is expected to see significant growth, with various companies launching new products and technologies [28][29] Group 4 - The photovoltaic industry is focusing on the replacement of cheap metals and the growth of distributed energy storage [30][31] - The global energy storage market is experiencing high demand, with significant growth in both large-scale and distributed storage solutions [33][34] - The solid-state battery industry is progressing towards commercialization, with potential applications in high-end electric vehicles and robotics [35] Group 5 - The automotive supply chain is expected to see reduced payment terms for suppliers, enhancing cash flow efficiency [36] - The AI infrastructure is accelerating, with OpenAI releasing a new model that enhances capabilities while reducing costs [37] - The first ultra-high voltage direct current transmission project from the Shagou Desert renewable energy base has been commissioned, indicating a shift towards high-capacity energy transmission [38]

Group 1: Report's Investment Rating - No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report [1][2][5] Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The capital market has no basis for tightening as the real - estate market and credit demand face downward pressure, and external exchange - rate pressure has significantly eased. However, the central bank's attitude towards the capital market is limitedly loose, so the probability of a significant decline in capital interest rates is low. DR007 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 1.5 - 1.6%. The CD maturity peak is not over, and CD interest rates may remain in a sideways oscillation state, with limited downward momentum in the bond market. Further long - position opportunities may require greater liquidity support from the central bank, a significant decline in CD interest rates, and an increase in interest - rate cut expectations [5][19][23] Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Can the funds become even looser? - From the fundamental perspective, the real - estate market and credit demand have downward pressure. As of June 14, the year - on - year decline in the commercial housing transaction area of 30 large - and medium - sized cities in June was 8.0%, and the year - on - year growth of first - tier cities' transaction area also decreased. As of June 8, the national urban second - hand housing listing price index decreased by 0.48% month - on - month. In May, the year - on - year growth of RMB loan balances was 7.1%, and the credit growth rate was still in a downward range. The growth of social financing was mainly supported by government bond issuance and direct financing, with weak financing demand from the real economy [7][12] - External exchange - rate pressure has significantly eased. After the Sino - US Geneva talks on May 12, bilateral tariff levels were significantly reduced, and the RMB showed an appreciation trend, so the central bank does not need to tighten funds to stabilize the exchange rate [15] - The central bank's attitude towards the capital market is limitedly loose. The central bank conducted two outright reverse repurchases in June, with a total investment of 1.4 trillion yuan, but the net investment was only 200 billion yuan. Considering the upcoming tax period and cross - quarter pressure, the upward range of capital interest rates is expected to be limited, and DR007 may fluctuate in the 1.5 - 1.6% range [17][18] 2. What is the impact on the bond market? - Since late May, although capital interest rates have significantly declined, CD interest rates have been in a sideways oscillation state, restricting the downward space of bond interest rates. In the next two weeks, CD repayment pressure is high, but the net lending scale of large banks has been increasing, so CD interest rates are expected to remain in an oscillating state, and the downward momentum of the bond market is limited [19]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the chemical industry [1] Core Views - The Israel-Iran conflict is expected to impact the Chinese chemical industry through increased demand for military materials and agricultural products, benefiting companies involved in metal chromium, nitrocellulose, carbon fiber, and rubber materials [4][5] - Supply-side constraints are anticipated due to potential disruptions in oil and gas supplies from Iran, affecting various chemical products [4] - The report highlights the rising prices of chromium salts and the potential for increased profitability in the sector, particularly for companies like Zhenhua Co. [5][6] Summary by Sections Recent Trends - The basic chemical sector has shown a performance increase of 8.8% over the past 12 months, outperforming the CSI 300 index, which has seen a 9.6% increase [3] Key Opportunities - The report identifies four main investment opportunities: 1. Low-cost expansion in companies such as Wanhua Chemical and Satellite Chemical [9] 2. Improved industry sentiment for chromium salts and phosphate rock [9] 3. New materials with high growth potential, particularly in electronic chemicals and aerospace materials [10] 4. High dividend yields from state-owned enterprises in the chemical sector [10] Company Focus - Zhenhua Co. is highlighted for its significant production capacity in chromium salts and its ability to adapt to market demands, with a projected production of 260,000 tons of chromium salt in 2024 [6][31] - Baitian Co. is noted for its phosphate rock production capacity expansion, which is expected to enhance its market position [7][31] Market Dynamics - The report discusses the ongoing tight supply-demand situation for phosphate rock, with existing capacities facing delays and increasing demand from lithium iron phosphate battery projects [7] - The report also mentions the impact of recent chemical safety incidents on industry capacity and regulatory pressures, which may accelerate the phase-out of less compliant operations [8]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the automotive industry [1] Core Views - The automotive sector is expected to benefit from the continuation of the vehicle trade-in policy in 2025, which is anticipated to support upward consumer spending [16] - The report highlights the emergence of high-end domestic brands and the potential for increased penetration of advanced driving technologies [16] - The report emphasizes the importance of the Robotaxi initiative by Tesla, which is set to launch on June 22, 2025, as a significant development in the industry [14] Summary by Sections Recent Developments - Multiple automotive companies have announced a "60-day payment term" commitment to suppliers, aiming to alleviate financial pressure [12] - The global first L3-level AI vehicle, the Xiaopeng G7, was officially unveiled with a pre-sale price of 235,800 yuan, featuring advanced AI capabilities [13] - Tesla plans to initiate its Robotaxi pilot service in Austin, Texas, with the first deliveries expected on June 28, 2025 [14] Market Performance - From June 9 to June 13, 2025, the A-share automotive sector underperformed compared to the Shanghai Composite Index, with a weekly decline of 0.8% [17] - The performance of individual segments showed a mixed trend, with passenger vehicles down by 2.0% and commercial vehicles up by 7.2% during the same period [17] Recommendations - The report recommends several companies based on their potential to benefit from the current market dynamics: 1. Domestic brands like Li Auto, JAC Motors, Geely, BYD, and Great Wall Motors are expected to thrive in the high-end market segment [16] 2. Companies involved in advanced driving technologies, such as Xiaopeng Motors, Huayang Group, Desay SV, and Kobot, are highlighted for their growth potential [16] 3. The report suggests focusing on companies with strong positions in the supply chain, such as Top Group, Sanhua Intelligent Control, and Beite Technology [16] 4. In the commercial vehicle sector, it anticipates a recovery in heavy truck demand, recommending companies like Foton Motor and China National Heavy Duty Truck [16]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the computer industry, indicating a favorable outlook for the sector [1]. Core Insights - Tesla's Robotaxi is approaching commercialization, with plans to expand from an initial fleet of 10 vehicles to 1,000 within months, starting operations in Austin and expanding to cities like San Francisco and Los Angeles [2][3]. - The core advantages of Tesla's Robotaxi include significant data advantages, a strong computational barrier with a fleet of 5 million vehicles equipped with FSD hardware, and a cost advantage where production costs are projected to be only 20%-25% of Waymo's [2]. - The report identifies three key elements for the large-scale commercialization of Robotaxi: improved algorithm capabilities, reduced hardware costs, and supportive policies [3]. Summary by Sections Recent Developments - Elon Musk announced the tentative public trial date for Tesla's Robotaxi on June 22, 2025, marking a significant milestone in its operational timeline [1]. Market Potential - The global market for Robotaxi is projected to reach RMB 834.9 billion by 2030, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 239% from 2024 to 2030, and China expected to dominate this market [8]. Operational Performance - Companies like Pony.ai, WeRide, and others have deployed over 1,000 Robotaxis, with significant growth in passenger orders and operational scale [9]. - For instance, Pony.ai reported an 800% increase in passenger order revenue in Q1 2025, with plans to reach 1,000 vehicles by year-end [9]. Competitive Landscape - The report highlights key players in the Robotaxi space, including Wanma Technology, Horizon Robotics, and others, indicating a competitive environment with various companies actively deploying and scaling their Robotaxi fleets [9].

Liquidity - The central bank implemented a reserve requirement ratio (RRR) cut of 0.5 percentage points and a loan prime rate (LPR) reduction of 10 basis points, leading to a net liquidity injection of CNY 599.8 billion in May[44] - The liquidity environment has further eased, with the weighted average interest rate for net financing from major banks and policy banks declining in May[44] Equity Market - Broad-based ETFs experienced a net outflow of CNY 34.8 billion, while the Sci-Tech ETF saw a net inflow of CNY 50 billion, indicating a divergence in investor sentiment[9][10] - The technology sector ETF recorded its largest monthly inflow of CNY 23.5 billion, while consumer and pharmaceutical ETFs faced significant outflows of CNY 22.5 billion and CNY 27 billion, respectively[16] Bond Market - Major banks and rural commercial banks began net buying old bonds in May, with net selling of interest rate bonds decreasing to CNY 1.909 billion from CNY 3.555 billion in April[29] - Insurance companies net purchased CNY 1.908 billion in interest rate bonds, primarily focusing on 15-20 year and 20-30 year maturities[32] Commodity Market - Gold ETFs shifted from net inflow to net outflow, with a net outflow of CNY 4.4 billion in May, reflecting changing investor sentiment towards precious metals[39] - Other commodity ETFs, including non-ferrous and energy chemical ETFs, continued to experience outflows, totaling CNY 1.13 billion and CNY 0.17 billion, respectively[40] Risk Factors - Increased geopolitical risks, potential domestic macroeconomic policy shortcomings, and the possibility of an overseas economic recession pose significant risks to market stability[47]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the coal mining industry [1] Core Viewpoints - The supply of thermal coal is tightening in major production areas, with expectations for demand to rebound during the peak season [1][4] - The report highlights a stable port coal price of 609 RMB/ton as of June 13, 2025, with a decrease in production capacity utilization in the Sanxi region by 2.48 percentage points due to frequent safety and environmental inspections [4][13] - The report emphasizes the resilience of high-calorific imported coal prices, while low-calorific coal has seen a slight recovery in cost-effectiveness [4][13] Summary by Sections Thermal Coal - Port inventory continues to decrease, with a week-on-week decline of 64.10 thousand tons in northern ports [30] - Daily coal consumption in coastal and inland power plants shows mixed trends, with coastal consumption increasing by 3.7 thousand tons and inland decreasing by 7.6 thousand tons [22][30] - The report anticipates a reduction in hydropower generation due to increased outflow from the Three Gorges Dam, which may lead to a recovery in thermal power demand [13][30] Coking Coal - Supply of coking coal has contracted, with a week-on-week decrease in production capacity utilization by 0.86 percentage points [5][40] - Despite a slight decrease in supply, demand remains weak, leading to an increase in inventory levels at coking coal production enterprises by 16.81 thousand tons [6][40] - The report indicates that coking coal prices are under pressure due to high inventory levels and weak demand [6][41] Coking Coke - Coking coke prices have undergone three rounds of reductions, impacting profit margins for coking enterprises [51] - The report notes a decrease in production rates at coking plants, with a utilization rate of 75.77% [51][56] - Coking coke inventory continues to rise, although the rate of increase has slowed [51][66] Key Companies and Profit Forecasts - The report identifies key companies to watch, including China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal, and Yanzhou Coal, with a focus on their strong cash flow and high asset quality [7][8] - The report provides earnings per share (EPS) forecasts for 2024A, 2025E, and 2026E for various companies, indicating a generally positive outlook for the sector [8]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company is set to absorb and merge with Zhongke Shuguang, aiming to create a world-class intelligent computing center [5][6] - The merger is expected to enhance the company's capabilities in the chip sector and integrate resources from Zhongke Shuguang in machine and data center infrastructure [5][6] - The transaction will simplify governance structures and optimize resource allocation, leading to improved operational efficiency and shareholder returns [7] Summary by Sections Recent Performance - The company's stock performance over the last year shows a 91.0% increase compared to the benchmark index, CSI 300, which only increased by 9.6% [3] - As of June 13, 2025, the current stock price is 137.06 yuan, with a market capitalization of approximately 318.57 billion yuan [3] Merger Details - The merger involves a share exchange where the company will issue A-shares to Zhongke Shuguang's shareholders at a premium of 10% [5] - The exchange ratio is set at 1:0.5525, with the company's share price for the exchange at 143.36 yuan per share [5][8] Financial Projections - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are estimated at 147.93 billion yuan, 220.54 billion yuan, and 306.90 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding net profits of 31.70 billion yuan, 48.34 billion yuan, and 73.23 billion yuan [9][10] - The expected EPS for the same period is projected to be 1.36 yuan, 2.08 yuan, and 3.15 yuan [9][10] Strategic Advantages - The merger is anticipated to create a closed-loop layout from high-end chip design to complete computing systems, enhancing the company's overall strength in the intelligent computing ecosystem [6][7] - The integration of Zhongke Shuguang's AI capabilities and applications is expected to drive long-term growth and operational synergies [6][7]

2025 年 06 月 15 日 资产配置报告 研究所： 证券分析师： 林加力 S0350524100005 linjl01@ghzq.com.cn 证券分析师： 徐凝碧 S0350524110001 xunb@ghzq.com.cn [Table_Title] 财政发力支撑总量，M1 增速回升 资产配置报告 最近一年走势 相关报告 《公募 REITs 周报：二级市场表现领先，REITs 总 市值首破两千亿*林加力》——2025-06-09 《2025 年 6 月大类资产配置报告：审慎情绪延续， 聚焦结构性机会*林加力》——2025-06-05 《公募 REITs 周报：市场活跃度略降，交通基础设 施连续上涨*林加力》——2025-06-04 《公募 REITs 周报：市场持续活跃，保障房与交通 领涨*林加力》——2025-05-27 金如何配置行业*林加力》——2025-05-19 投资要点: 国海证券股份有限公司 【银行&资产配置小组介绍】 林加力，国海证券研究所副所长、首席资产配置官、金融首席分析师。毕业于浙江大学、复旦大学，曾就职于 海通证券、民生证券、浦发银行。2019-2023 年连续上榜新财富最 ...