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可转债择券系列专题:中小盘高端制造转债精选
Minsheng Securities· 2025-10-23 08:11
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - After the stock market's rally since July, the medium - and short - term market may experience consolidation, and there could be a re - balance between large - and small - cap styles. Since October, the year - to - date cumulative return of the CSI 2000 (representing small - and medium - cap stocks) has approached that of the ChiNext Index [2][9]. - Small - and medium - cap stocks in the high - end manufacturing sector are worth attention. Some companies in this sector have stable main - business profits and are shifting strategies towards computing power and humanoid robots, opening up growth prospects [2][9]. - Small - and medium - cap high - end manufacturing convertible bonds can enhance portfolio elasticity. It is recommended to increase attention to equity - like convertible bonds, focusing on new bonds and those with non - call provisions, while being aware of call risks [2][9]. - Five convertible bonds related to small - and medium - cap high - end manufacturing are recommended: Songsheng Convertible Bond, Yingbo Convertible Bond, Fuli Convertible Bond, Xizhen Convertible Bond, and Xingrui Convertible Bond [3][10]. 3. Summaries According to Catalogs 3.1 Overall Logic and Layout Ideas - The stock market is in a trading volume contraction trend. After the rally since July, partial profit - taking may occur. The inflow of funds through ETFs and mutual funds has driven the strength of large - cap growth stocks. With the weakening of market beta, the style between large - and small - cap stocks may re - balance [2][9]. - Small - and medium - cap stocks in high - end manufacturing are promising. Against the backdrop of a technology - driven and industrial - upgrading nation, some companies' main - business profits are stable, and strategic shifts towards computing power and humanoid robots open up growth expectations [2][9]. - From the perspective of convertible bonds, small - and medium - cap high - end manufacturing convertible bonds can increase portfolio elasticity. Due to the high volatility of small - cap stocks, they often have high valuations. Equity - like convertible bonds are recommended, along with attention to call risks and a focus on new bonds and those with non - call provisions [2][9]. 3.2 Individual Bond Selections 3.2.1 Songsheng Co., Ltd. / Songsheng Convertible Bond - The company is a leading manufacturer of medium - and high - power LED driving power supplies in the LED lighting field. The global LED plant lighting market is expected to grow from $1.315 billion in 2024 to $2.056 billion in 2029, with a CAGR of 9.4% [15]. - Energy storage inverter products have achieved batch sales. In H1 2025, the company's household and industrial energy storage products obtained numerous certifications, and the energy storage core component business received orders from large domestic energy companies [16]. - In June 2025, the company entered the robot track by jointly developing harmonic reducers and other products with Chongqing Jinggang Transmission and others. As of October, the project is progressing, and its subsidiary is seeking orders [16][17]. 3.2.2 Yingboer / Yingbo Convertible Bond - Yingboer is a leading enterprise with independent R & D and production capabilities in new - energy vehicle drive and power systems. It has established cooperation with many well - known vehicle manufacturers in various fields [20]. - The company has obtained project approvals from multiple eVTOL leading enterprises. With the government's support for the low - altitude economy, eVTOL has great development potential, and the company's "Integrated Chip" technology meets its needs [20][21]. - In April 2025, Yingboer cooperated with Fengli Intelligent to develop joint modules for humanoid robots, expanding its business scope [22]. 3.2.3 Fuliwang / Fuli Convertible Bond - The company focuses on the R & D, manufacturing, and sales of precision metal parts, serving multiple downstream industries. It has mature MIM process capabilities applicable to humanoid robot parts manufacturing [24]. - In early 2025, the company extended into the humanoid robot industry and sent samples of micro - planetary roller screws to leading customers. As of September, it had sent samples to 5 industry leaders and started delivering other metal parts [25]. 3.2.4 Wuxi Zhenhua / Xizhen Convertible Bond - The company is deeply involved in the automotive parts industry, with main business segments including stamping parts, sub - assembly processing, mold, and selective precision electroplating [27]. - New - energy customers such as Tesla, Li Auto, and Xiaomi provide new growth opportunities. In H1 2025, the sub - assembly processing business increased by 16.65% year - on - year [28]. - The precision electroplating business has high gross margins. In September, the company obtained environmental assessment approvals for new projects, which will open up new business areas in the new - energy field [28]. 3.2.5 Xingrui Technology / Xingrui Convertible Bond - Xingrui Technology is a precision component manufacturing and R & D enterprise focusing on new - energy vehicle electrical systems, intelligent terminals, and consumer electronics, providing customized solutions for high - end customers [30]. - In H1 2025, the company's server business won multiple new project approvals, expanding its product portfolio. In July 2025, it established a strategic partnership with Green Cloud Map for R & D and production of liquid - cooled server - related products [30].
科大讯飞(002230):2025 年三季报点评:Q3业绩亮眼,讯飞星火对标全球第一梯队
Minsheng Securities· 2025-10-22 15:39
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company, indicating a potential upside of over 15% relative to the benchmark index [4][10]. Core Insights - The company reported a significant improvement in its financial performance for Q3 2025, with a total revenue of 60.78 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 10.02%. The net profit attributable to shareholders turned positive at 1.72 billion yuan, a remarkable increase of 202.40% compared to the previous quarter [1][3]. - The company has solidified its leading position in the artificial intelligence sector, with its "Xunfei Spark X1" model achieving industry-leading performance in various applications, including mathematics, translation, reasoning, and text generation [2][3]. - The commercialization of AI is accelerating, with the company securing the highest number and value of contracts related to large models in the industry, totaling 5.45 billion yuan in Q3 2025 [3]. Financial Performance Summary - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company achieved a total revenue of 169.89 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 14.41%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was a loss of 0.67 billion yuan, but this was a significant narrowing of losses compared to previous periods [1]. - The company forecasts revenues of 279 billion yuan, 338 billion yuan, and 414 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with net profits projected at 7.29 billion yuan, 11.05 billion yuan, and 14.13 billion yuan for the same years [3][7]. - Key financial metrics indicate a gross margin of 40.38% in Q3 2025, reflecting an improvement in profitability [1][3]. Market Position and Competitive Advantage - The company has established a robust ecosystem for its AI models, with over 1.22 million new developers joining in the first three quarters of 2025, including 690,000 focused on large model development [3]. - The "Xunfei Spark" model's capabilities have been validated against global benchmarks, demonstrating its competitive edge in the AI landscape [2].
平高电气(600312):2025 年三季报点评:盈利能力持续改善,存货金额维持增势
Minsheng Securities· 2025-10-22 15:19
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company [6] Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 8.436 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 6.98%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 982 million yuan, up 14.62% year-on-year [1] - The gross margin and net margin for the first three quarters of 2025 improved, reaching 25.09% and 12.54% respectively, with a decrease in sales and management expense ratios [2] - The company’s inventory increased to 2.508 billion yuan, providing support for future business growth [2] - The company is expected to benefit from the ongoing bidding for ultra-high voltage projects by the State Grid, with significant contracts won recently [3] - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 13.764 billion, 15.327 billion, and 17.032 billion yuan, with corresponding growth rates of 11.0%, 11.4%, and 11.1% [3] Financial Summary - For 2025, the company is projected to have a net profit of 1.304 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 27.4% [5] - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is estimated at 0.96 yuan, with a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 17 [5] - The company’s financial indicators show a continuous improvement in profitability, with a projected return on equity (ROE) of 11.44% in 2025 [11]
思源电气(002028):盈利能力持续改善,业绩增速亮眼
Minsheng Securities· 2025-10-22 13:58
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company [6]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 13.827 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 32.86%. The net profit attributable to the parent company was 2.191 billion yuan, up 46.94% year-on-year [3]. - The gross margin and net margin improved to 32.32% and 16.42%, respectively, indicating continuous enhancement in profitability [4]. - The company is actively cultivating new businesses, particularly in automotive electronics, with a significant revenue increase of 216.58% in this segment during the first half of 2025 [5]. Financial Performance Summary - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 53.30 billion yuan in Q3, a year-on-year increase of 25.68% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 1.13%. The net profit for Q3 was 8.99 billion yuan, up 48.73% year-on-year [3]. - The company’s inventory reached 5.027 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 44.58%, indicating strong business growth and supporting future performance [4]. - The projected revenues for 2025-2027 are 19.387 billion, 23.684 billion, and 28.471 billion yuan, with corresponding growth rates of 25.4%, 22.2%, and 20.2% [5]. Earnings Forecast - The expected net profits for 2025-2027 are 2.759 billion, 3.499 billion, and 4.429 billion yuan, with growth rates of 34.6%, 26.8%, and 26.6% respectively [5][10]. - The price-to-earnings (PE) ratios for 2025-2027 are projected to be 34X, 27X, and 21X [5]. Business Development - The company is focusing on expanding its automotive electronics and high-rate energy storage components, which are expected to contribute significantly to future revenue growth [5].
宁德时代(300750):业绩符合预期,深化产业生态,构建多元增长引擎
Minsheng Securities· 2025-10-22 13:36
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company, reflecting strong demand in both power and energy storage businesses [4]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 283.07 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 9.28%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 49.03 billion yuan, up 36.20% year-on-year [1]. - In Q3 alone, the company achieved a revenue of 104.19 billion yuan, representing a 12.90% year-on-year growth, with a net profit of 18.55 billion yuan, up 41.21% year-on-year [1]. - The company’s battery shipment volume in Q3 was approximately 180 GWh, with power batteries accounting for about 80% and energy storage batteries for about 20% [2]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 2830.72 billion yuan and a net profit of 490.34 billion yuan, with Q3 figures showing a revenue of 1041.86 billion yuan and a net profit of 185.49 billion yuan [1]. - The company’s Q3 non-recurring net profit was approximately 164.22 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 35.47% [1]. Market Demand and Expansion - The demand for both power and energy storage batteries is robust, with the commercial vehicle market becoming a new growth point, increasing its business share to about 20% [2]. - The company is accelerating global capacity expansion, with plans for over 100 GWh of new energy storage capacity in Jining, Shandong, by 2026, and its overseas factories in Germany and Hungary are progressing well [2]. Technological Innovation - The company invested 15.07 billion yuan in R&D in the first three quarters of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 15.3% [3]. - New products, including sodium-ion batteries and advanced technologies for intelligent driving, are being developed and are expected to capture a significant market share [3]. Strategic Partnerships - The company is deepening its industrial ecosystem by forming strategic partnerships, such as with JD.com to promote a vehicle-battery separation model and with Sinopec to build battery swap stations [3].
海外市场点评:9月通胀的降息悬念
Minsheng Securities· 2025-10-22 12:20
Core Insights - The September CPI data is the first official inflation report since the U.S. government shutdown, significantly impacting the market. Following the release, there was a market rally in precious metals and risk assets, but profit-taking behavior has emerged as new data approaches [3][4] - It is anticipated that the September core CPI will show moderate growth, remaining at 3.1%. The divergence between service and goods inflation suggests that while goods prices are rising due to tariffs and demand, service inflation is declining, providing a buffer [4][5] - The report indicates that the core inflation is expected to continue its moderate upward trend, which implies that the market's pricing of a potential interest rate cut in October is unlikely to be reversed [5][6] Inflation Dynamics - The report predicts that the September CPI will rise above 3%, driven by energy and food inflation. The core CPI growth is expected to remain stable at 3.1%, with pressures from tariffs on goods being countered by a decline in service inflation, particularly in housing [4][5] - Factors driving the increase in goods prices include heightened demand for new vehicles and the impact of tariffs on retail prices, particularly for imported goods [4][8] - Service inflation is expected to ease, particularly in housing, due to high interest rates and seasonal declines in travel-related service prices [4][8] Future Outlook - The report suggests that core inflation may face an upward turning point in Q4, with projections indicating that the year-on-year core CPI will rise to 3.2%, 3.4%, and 3.7% in October, November, and December, respectively [6][8] - Even if a 25 basis point rate cut occurs in October, the Federal Reserve's future easing path may be constrained due to accelerating inflation pressures [8][9] - A potential disruption in Q4 inflation could arise from the upcoming Supreme Court ruling on tariffs, which may provide the Federal Reserve with a more lenient decision-making window if tariffs are deemed illegal [9]
物产环能(603071):传统能源供应体系优化,综合能源服务能力持续强化
Minsheng Securities· 2025-10-22 07:36
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company [5][7]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 26.979 billion yuan for Q1-Q3 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 12.84%, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 453 million yuan, down 15.10% year-on-year [3]. - The decline in revenue is primarily attributed to pressure in the coal sector, where an increase in sales volume contributed 2.058 billion yuan, while a drop in coal prices reduced revenue by 6.057 billion yuan [3]. - The company is focusing on enhancing its comprehensive energy service capabilities, particularly in the cogeneration sector, to support the transition to a green and low-carbon economy [4]. - The company has successfully expanded its coal sales volume despite a weak overall coal market, responding strategically to regional energy demands [4]. Financial Summary - For Q3 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 8.557 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 22.38%, with a net profit of 150 million yuan, down 13.32% year-on-year [3]. - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 744 million yuan, 804 million yuan, and 913 million yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 11x, 10x, and 9x [5][6]. - The projected revenue for 2025 is 44.765 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 0.1% [6].
润本股份(603193):2025年三季报点评:Q3淡季不淡,费用投放加码,期待Q4新品表现
Minsheng Securities· 2025-10-22 07:21
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company [4] Core Views - The company reported a Q3 2025 revenue of 342 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 16.7%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 79 million yuan, a decrease of 2.89% year-on-year [1] - The sales of mosquito repellent products showed significant growth, driven by consumer demand due to the chikungunya virus, with Q3 revenue reaching 132 million yuan, up 48.54% year-on-year [2] - The company is actively expanding its youth skincare product line, which is expected to become a new growth driver [3] Financial Performance - The overall gross margin for Q3 2025 was 58.96%, an increase of 1.39 percentage points year-on-year [3] - The company’s net profit margin for Q3 2025 was 22.93%, a decrease of 4.62 percentage points year-on-year [3] - The projected net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 324 million, 398 million, and 491 million yuan, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 7.8%, 22.9%, and 23.4% [4][5] Business Segments - In Q3 2025, the mosquito repellent segment accounted for 41.25% of total revenue, while the baby care segment contributed 45.05%, and essential oils made up 13.25% [2] - The average selling price of mosquito repellent products increased by 12.04% year-on-year to 6.14 yuan, attributed to product structure optimization [2] - The company is focusing on enhancing its marketing efforts for youth skincare products and new sunscreen lines [3]
摩托车行业系列点评二十一:中大排出海提速,自主高端化突围
Minsheng Securities· 2025-10-22 06:02
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the motorcycle industry, specifically recommending companies such as Chuanfeng Power, Longxin General, and Qianjiang Motorcycle [5][15]. Core Insights - The motorcycle industry is experiencing steady growth in sales, particularly in the mid-to-large displacement segment, with exports accelerating [4][5]. - The overall sales of motorcycles above 250cc reached 87,000 units in September 2025, marking a year-on-year increase of 13.1% and a cumulative sales of 761,000 units from January to September, up 32.9% year-on-year [3][4]. - The report highlights the strong performance of leading companies in the industry, with Chuanfeng Power maintaining its top position in sales [6][9]. Summary by Sections Sales Performance - In September 2025, sales of motorcycles above 125cc reached 751,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 5.5% and a month-on-month increase of 12.2% [4]. - Exports of motorcycles above 250cc in September were 53,000 units, up 39.0% year-on-year, while domestic sales were 33,000 units, down 12.7% year-on-year [4]. Market Structure - The report notes significant growth in the 500cc and above segment, with sales of 1,700 units in September, a year-on-year increase of 351.5% [5]. - The 250cc to 400cc segment saw sales of 53,000 units in September, up 3.8% year-on-year, while the 400cc to 500cc segment experienced a decline of 24.1% [5]. Competitive Landscape - The top three companies in the 250cc and above segment are Chuanfeng Power, Qianjiang Motorcycle, and Longxin General, with a combined market share of 44.2% in September [6][8]. - Chuanfeng Power's market share was 15.3% in September, while Qianjiang Motorcycle's market share was 15.0%, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 84.8% in sales [6][8]. Future Outlook - The report anticipates continued growth in the mid-to-large displacement motorcycle market, driven by new model launches and increased export activities from leading manufacturers [5][15]. - Chuanfeng Power is expected to focus on new models in the 450cc and 650cc categories, which are anticipated to boost sales significantly [11].
贝斯特(300580):系列点评五:25Q3业绩符合预期,国际市场布局持续深化
Minsheng Securities· 2025-10-22 03:41
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company, with a target price based on the closing price of 25.92 yuan on October 21, 2025 [7]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 1.121 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 7.52%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 236 million yuan, up 5.06% year-on-year [1][2]. - The third quarter of 2025 saw a revenue of 404 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 17.20% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 10.20%. The net profit for the same period was 88 million yuan, up 8.20% year-on-year [1][2]. - The company is deepening its international market presence with the opening of its first phase of the Thailand factory, which will enhance its global production capacity and supply chain optimization [3]. - The company is expanding its product offerings in linear motion components, achieving significant breakthroughs in high-precision ball screw pairs and linear guide pairs, with ongoing development in key manufacturing processes [4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For Q3 2025, the gross profit margin was 34.37%, a decrease of 0.78 percentage points year-on-year, while the net profit margin was 21.70%, down 1.81 percentage points year-on-year [2]. - The company expects revenues of 1.614 billion, 1.878 billion, and 2.110 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with net profits projected at 340 million, 393 million, and 450 million yuan for the same years [6][10]. International Expansion - The Thailand factory's first phase has officially opened, with the second phase under construction, which will add an annual production capacity of 8,000 tons of various intermediate shell castings [3]. Product Development - The company has fully laid out its linear motion components, with products already being delivered to well-known domestic machine tool manufacturers. The self-developed planetary roller screw has also been successfully sampled [4]. Investment Outlook - The company is positioned to leverage its expertise in precision machining to enter new markets such as new energy components and industrial mother machines, aiming for sustained growth [4].