海外市场追踪 金银的"滑铁卢"？ 2025 年 10 月 22 日 [Table_Author] 分析师：陶川 分析师：邵翔 执业证号：S0100524060005 执业证号：S0100524080007 邮箱：taochuan@glms.com.cn 邮箱：shaoxiang@glms.com.cn ➢ 大涨之后往往有大跌，尤其是无法理解的大涨，这是资本市场的经典规律。 而这一幕也出现在最近炙手可热的金银身上。昨晚黄金期货暴跌近 6%，白银期 货跌超 7%，都是十几年来的单日最惨表现，而且是继上周五之后的第二次大跌。 相关研究 ➢ 如果说之前的上涨，市场还可以用美联储顶着通胀的过度宽松预期、美元信 用以及政府关门来解释，但是最近一两周黄金和股票等风险资产同涨，并且丝毫 不惧美元的反弹，这多少有些颠覆了传统的逻辑。 ➢ 对于昨晚直接的促发因素，并不是很明确，可能是俄乌问题。虽然昨天欧美 在俄乌的领土问题上相较之前确实有所松口，但是俄罗斯并未接受。特朗普的公 开"建议"是：俄乌双方停火，停在当前的战线，并达成协议、宣称各自获胜。 而多名欧洲领导人也发布联合声明，称"强烈支持"美国总统特朗普在乌克兰问 题上的立场 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company [5] Core Views - The company reported significant improvement in Q3 earnings, driven by increased sales volume and prices of magnetic materials [1][2] - The company is expected to benefit from the growth in humanoid robot magnetic components, with ongoing capacity expansion [3] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company achieved revenue of 5.373 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.16%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 515 million yuan, up 161.81% [1] - In Q3 2025 alone, revenue reached 1.866 billion yuan, representing a 12.91% year-on-year growth and a 6.45% quarter-on-quarter increase [1] - The gross profit margin for the first three quarters of 2025 was 19.49%, an increase of 9.46 percentage points compared to the same period last year [2] Market Dynamics - The average price of praseodymium-neodymium mixed metal in Q3 2025 was approximately 660,000 yuan per ton, reflecting a year-on-year increase of about 37.1% [2] - Sales revenue from the new energy vehicle and automotive parts sector was 2.615 billion yuan, with a sales volume increase of 23.46% year-on-year [2] Capacity and Future Outlook - The company has established a production capacity of 40,000 tons of rare earth permanent magnet blanks and aims to reach 60,000 tons by 2027 [3] - The company is currently constructing a factory in Mexico with a capacity of 1 million sets for humanoid robot magnetic components, with initial small batch deliveries already made [3] Earnings Forecast - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 721 million yuan, 872 million yuan, and 1.084 billion yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively [4] - Corresponding EPS for these years is expected to be 0.53 yuan, 0.64 yuan, and 0.79 yuan [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company, indicating an expected price increase of over 15% relative to the benchmark index within the next 12 months [8][15]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 1.81 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 10.13%. The net profit attributable to the parent company reached 210 million yuan, up 36.89% year-on-year [3][4]. - The third quarter of 2025 saw a revenue of 586 million yuan, a slight increase of 0.48% year-on-year but a decrease of 5.28% quarter-on-quarter. The net profit for Q3 was 106 million yuan, showing a significant year-on-year increase of 109.83% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 129.13% [3][4]. - The increase in net profit is primarily attributed to non-recurring gains, particularly a fair value change gain of 87 million yuan [4]. Financial Performance Summary - Revenue and Profitability: The company’s Q3 gross margin was 15.23%, down 2.68 percentage points year-on-year, while the net profit margin was 18.02%, up 9.39 percentage points year-on-year [4]. - Expense Ratios: The sales, management, R&D, and financial expense ratios for Q3 were 0.73%, 4.19%, 4.14%, and 1.43%, respectively, with management expenses slightly increasing due to higher depreciation of management assets [4]. - Future Projections: The company is expected to achieve revenues of 3.23 billion yuan, 4.08 billion yuan, and 5.07 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with net profits projected at 303 million yuan, 381 million yuan, and 529 million yuan for the same years [7][12]. Strategic Developments - Collaboration with Nidec: The company is deepening its collaboration with Nidec in the fields of new energy vehicle components and humanoid robots, focusing on technology empowerment, capacity collaboration, and market resonance [5]. - Investment in Tactile Technology: The company strategically invested in Shenzhen Tactile Technology Co., which specializes in MEMS technology and tactile sensors, aiming to enhance its capabilities in robotics [6].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the airline sector, highlighting the potential for price recovery driven by improved supply-demand dynamics [6][10]. Core Insights - In September 2025, the airline industry experienced a significant increase in passenger load factors, with domestic and international routes reaching record highs. The combined ASK/RPK for six listed airlines grew by 4.0% and 7.1% year-on-year, respectively [3][12]. - The report emphasizes the tight supply-demand relationship, with a notable recovery in business travel demand contributing to price increases. The domestic passenger load factor reached 87.3%, up 2.1 percentage points year-on-year, marking the highest level for September in history [4][13]. - The report suggests that the industry is entering a critical phase where supply constraints may lead to sustained price improvements, particularly in the fourth quarter of 2025 [5][24]. Summary by Sections Passenger Load Factors and Pricing - The report indicates that high passenger load factors in September have led to price increases, with domestic economy class ticket prices rising by 2.4% year-on-year. International ticket prices, however, saw a decline of 15.2% [4][13]. - The domestic load factor for the six airlines reached 87.3%, which is 3.9 percentage points higher than the same period in 2019, reflecting strong demand recovery [4][12]. Fleet Expansion - The total fleet of the six listed airlines increased by 0.3% in September 2025, with a net addition of 11 aircraft. The primary models introduced were the A320 and B737 series [5][24]. - China National Airlines led the fleet expansion with a net increase of 5 aircraft, while Eastern Airlines added 2 aircraft during the same period [26][28]. Investment Recommendations - The report advises investors to focus on the sustainability of price improvements in the fourth quarter, particularly for business routes. The recovery in business travel is expected to enhance investor sentiment in the sector [5][24]. - Key airlines to watch include China Eastern Airlines, China Southern Airlines, and Spring Airlines, among others [5][6].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company [4][7]. Core Insights - The company achieved a net profit of 960 million RMB in Q3 2025, marking a significant improvement compared to the same period last year and the first half of this year, primarily due to a tax benefit from the sale of an associate [1]. - The average selling price of granular silicon increased by 28% to 42.12 RMB/kg in Q3 2025, driven by industry initiatives to reduce competition, while production cash costs decreased to 24.16 RMB/kg, indicating a strong cost advantage [2]. - The company raised 5.336 billion HKD through the issuance of shares, with approximately 3.505 billion HKD allocated for supply-side reform and silane gas business, which is expected to enhance profitability and growth potential [3]. Financial Projections - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 12.997 billion RMB, 17.433 billion RMB, and 19.513 billion RMB, respectively, with net profits expected to be -950 million RMB, 1.530 billion RMB, and 2.393 billion RMB [4][6]. - The company is expected to achieve a P/E ratio of 24x in 2026 and 15x in 2027, reflecting a recovery in profitability and potential market share growth as industry capacity is rationalized [4][6].

Economic Overview - In the first three quarters of 2025, China's GDP reached 10,150.36 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 5.2%[4] - The GDP for Q3 2025 was 3,545 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year growth of 4.8% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 1.1% after seasonal adjustments[4] New vs. Old Growth Drivers - Traditional growth engines like real estate and infrastructure are underperforming, while high-tech industries and manufacturing investments are leading with higher growth rates[5] - The acceleration in the transformation of economic drivers sets a strategic foundation for future industrial development discussions at the Fourth Plenary Session[5] Consumer Income and Demand - Resident income growth has slowed to match economic growth for the first time since Q2 2023, necessitating policies to boost domestic demand and consumption recovery[5] - The need for short-term counter-cyclical adjustments and long-term planning for income distribution reform and consumption incentives is emphasized[5] Industrial Production Insights - Industrial production saw a year-on-year increase of 6.5% in September, up from 5.2% in August, indicating a recovery in industrial activity[6] - The industrial capacity utilization rate rose from 74.0% to 74.6%, marking the highest level this year[6] Infrastructure and Investment Trends - Narrowly defined infrastructure investment growth improved from -5.9% in August to -4.6% in September, signaling marginal recovery[8] - Broader infrastructure investment continues to decline, highlighting a divergence in performance across sectors[8] Consumer Spending Challenges - Retail sales growth fell to 3% in September, primarily due to reduced government subsidies and preemptive demand for durable goods[10] - The decline in consumer spending is exacerbated by a drop in restaurant revenue growth to 0.9% after two months of recovery[10] Real Estate Market Dynamics - Real estate investment growth continued to decline, reaching -13.9% for the first nine months of 2025, with significant pressure expected in Q4 due to high base effects from previous policy support[10] - The need for enhanced policies to stabilize the real estate market is critical to prevent further declines[10] Policy Implications - The recent allocation of 500 billion yuan by the Ministry of Finance to support local projects indicates a focus on stabilizing expectations and facilitating the transition between old and new economic drivers[6] - The upcoming Fourth Plenary Session is anticipated to reassess the economic situation and signal potential policy easing measures[6] Risks and Considerations - Potential risks include policies falling short of expectations, unexpected changes in the domestic economic landscape, and fluctuations in export performance[11]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company [3][5]. Core Views - The company achieved record high performance in Q3 2025, with significant growth in both revenue and net profit driven by rising gold prices and production [1][2]. - The gold segment has become the largest profit contributor, with a gross profit margin of 45.7% in Q3 2025, surpassing the copper segment [2][25]. - The company is focused on continuous exploration and resource expansion, alongside strategic acquisitions to enhance production capabilities [3]. Summary by Sections 1. Event - The company released its Q3 2025 report, showing a revenue of 254.2 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.33%, and a net profit of 37.864 billion yuan, up 55.45% year-on-year [1][8]. 2. Revenue and Profit Growth - In Q3 2025, the company reported a revenue of 86.489 billion yuan, an 8.1% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of 14.572 billion yuan, reflecting a 57.1% year-on-year growth [1][2]. 3. Profitability Breakdown - The gross profit margin for the company increased to 24.93% in the first three quarters of 2025, driven by rising prices of key metals [23]. - The gold segment's gross profit margin increased significantly, contributing to the overall profit growth [25]. 4. Cost and Expenses - The company experienced a 5.35 billion yuan increase in operating expenses in Q3 2025, with total expenses reaching 38.51 billion yuan [35]. 5. Non-Recurring Profits - Non-recurring profits increased by 6.91 billion yuan in Q3 2025, primarily due to fair value changes and asset disposals [45][51]. 6. Cash Flow - The company reported a net cash inflow from operating activities of 23.278 billion yuan in Q3 2025, indicating strong cash flow generation [58]. 7. Project Progress - The company successfully spun off its subsidiary, Zijin Gold International, which listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, raising approximately 28.7 billion HKD [15].

Group 1 - The report highlights opportunities in long-term urban investment bonds, particularly in regions supported by new policy financial tools, which are expected to enhance local economic development and project financing [2][9][12] - Specific regions such as Wenzhou Yongjia County, Nanning, and Changji Prefecture are identified as key areas for investment due to their potential to stabilize employment and attract bank loans and social capital [2][23] - The report emphasizes the importance of addressing hidden debts and overdue payments in local governments, particularly in cities like Jilin City, which are expected to receive special bonds for project construction [2][24] Group 2 - The report notes that during the 14th Five-Year Plan period, certain areas are expected to become focal points for national strategic industries, including logistics hubs and computing power centers, which will receive significant government support [3][10][19] - Cities such as Xining, Qingyang, and Karamay are highlighted for their potential to form industrial clusters and attract investment in long-term bonds due to their strategic importance in future industries [3][25] - The widening credit spreads for urban investment bonds with maturities over five years are noted, suggesting a potential investment opportunity in specific bonds from regions mentioned [3][25] Group 3 - The report discusses the recent recovery in the bond market, with a general decline in yields, particularly in credit bonds, which have seen a more significant drop compared to government bonds [4][5] - It suggests that short- to medium-term credit bonds may offer better value as safe-haven assets in the current uncertain market environment [4][5] - The report recommends focusing on high-grade urban investment bonds as core assets, particularly those with a maturity of 2 years or less, while also considering opportunities in the primary market [5][4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company [5][7]. Core Insights - The company has shown continuous growth in performance, significantly benefiting from the rising cobalt prices. In the first three quarters of 2025, the company achieved revenue of approximately 589 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 29.57%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 42.16 billion yuan, up 39.59% year-on-year [1]. - The company is expanding its production capacity across various metals, including nickel, cobalt, copper, and lithium, with significant increases in output and sales expected in Q3 2025 [2]. - The implementation of Congo's export quota policy is expected to lead to a clear upward trend in cobalt prices, benefiting the company as the supply shortage situation remains unresolved [3]. - The company is making steady progress in project construction, enhancing its resource base and operational efficiency, particularly in nickel and lithium projects [4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For Q3 2025, the company reported revenue of approximately 217 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 40.85%, and a net profit of 15.05 billion yuan, up 11.53% year-on-year [1]. - The projected net profits for 2025-2027 are 59.74 billion yuan, 79.07 billion yuan, and 97.72 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 20X, 15X, and 12X [5][6]. Production and Sales - Nickel projects are maintaining stable production, with cobalt product shipments expected to increase due to rising prices and inventory release [2]. - The company anticipates an increase in copper production as electricity supply improves in the Democratic Republic of Congo [2]. Pricing Trends - The prices for the company's main products in Q3 2025 were reported as follows: copper at 79,500 yuan/ton, cobalt at 266,800 yuan/ton, and nickel at 15,226 USD/ton, with cobalt prices showing a significant increase [3]. Project Development - The company is enhancing its resource base by investing in nickel and lithium projects, with ongoing construction of a nickel project in Indonesia and an increase in lithium resource estimates in Zimbabwe [4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive investment rating for the automotive and automotive parts industry, highlighting potential growth opportunities in the sector [6]. Core Insights - The automotive industry is experiencing a sequential increase in sales and favorable cost conditions, with a notable rise in both total and new energy vehicle sales in Q3 2025 [2][3]. - The report emphasizes the importance of intelligent and globalized breakthroughs in the automotive sector, recommending key players such as Geely, Xpeng, Li Auto, BYD, and Xiaomi Group [4][5]. Summary by Sections 0.1 Passenger Vehicles - Total passenger vehicle sales in Q3 2025 reached 7.686 million units, representing a year-on-year increase of 14.7% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 8.1% [11][24]. - New energy passenger vehicle sales were particularly strong, with 4.024 million units sold, up 24.2% year-on-year and 10.9% quarter-on-quarter, achieving a penetration rate of 52.4% [11][24]. - The report notes a stable pricing environment, with discounts remaining consistent compared to previous months [25]. 0.2 Auto Parts - The auto parts sector is benefiting from a decrease in raw material costs and shipping fees, which is expected to alleviate cost pressures for companies [3][45]. - Key raw materials such as polypropylene and hot-rolled coil prices have seen significant declines, contributing to improved margins for auto parts manufacturers [45]. 0.3 Heavy Trucks - The heavy truck market is experiencing a boost due to the implementation of trade-in subsidy policies, with wholesale sales reaching 282,000 units in Q3 2025, a year-on-year increase of 58.1% [3]. - New energy heavy truck sales surged by 181.5% year-on-year, indicating strong demand in this segment [3]. 0.4 Motorcycles - The report forecasts a total of 258,000 units for mid-to-large displacement motorcycles in Q3 2025, reflecting an 18.9% year-on-year increase [4]. - Export sales for motorcycles are also strong, with a 50.5% year-on-year increase, driven by growth in the 500-800cc segment [4]. 1.1 Weekly Insights - The automotive sector's performance has been weaker than the overall market, with a 6.1% decline in the A-share automotive sector during the week of October 13-17, 2025 [2]. - The report suggests focusing on key companies such as Geely, Xpeng, and BYD for potential investment opportunities [2][4]. 1.2 Intelligent Electric Vehicles - The report highlights the accelerating growth of intelligent electric vehicles, recommending companies involved in smart driving and smart cockpit technologies [4]. 1.3 Robotics - The report notes the entry of leading companies into the robotics sector, indicating a new era of embodied intelligence [4]. 1.4 Liquid Cooling - The demand for AI is driving the need for higher power density in liquid cooling solutions, positioning it as a necessary choice for high-density applications [4]. 1.5 Motorcycles - The report identifies a trend towards consumer upgrades in the motorcycle segment, recommending leading companies in the mid-to-large displacement category [4]. 1.6 Heavy Trucks - The expansion of trade-in subsidy policies is expected to stimulate demand for medium and heavy trucks, contributing to market recovery [4]. 1.7 Tires - The report emphasizes the ongoing acceleration of globalization in the tire industry, recommending leading and high-growth companies [4].